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CTX - Centex $60.85


Centex Corporation (NYSE:CTX) is a multi-industry company with

operations in six principal business segments. Conventional Homes

operations involve the construction and sale of single-family

homes, town homes and low-rise condominiums, and the purchase and

development of land. Investment Real Estate operations involve

the acquisition, development and sale of land, and the development

of industrial, office, retail and mixed-use projects. Financial

Services operations involve the financing of homes, home equity

and sub-prime lending, and the marketing of insurance coverage.

Construction Products involves cement production and distribution,

and the production, distribution and sale of gypsum wallboard,

concrete, aggregates and recycled paperboard. Contracting and

Construction Services involves the construction of buildings.


The Public Home Builders Council of America says its members
expect a double-digit rise in 2005 earnings, based in part on the
expectation they will grab market share if the overall housing
industry slows. This association of the largest U.S. publicly
traded home builders expects closings on new homes to rise by
18 percent to 20 percent in 2005. In addition, the large builders
say they have an advantage over smaller builders -- both public
and private -- because they can borrow money more cheaply to
finance operations and land acquisitions. CTX is in this group
and the recent technical indications suggest investors believe
housing stocks have additional upside potential.

Fundamentals: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CTX&quicken=2

Chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CTX&t=6m

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY PUT FEB-50.00 CTX-NJ OI=547 ASK=$0.35

SELL PUT FEB-55.00 CTX-NK OI=587 BID=$0.80


INITIAL "NET-CREDIT" TARGET = $0.50-$0.55

POTENTIAL PROFIT (X 5 contracts) = $250
RETURN ON INVESTMENT (max) = 11%
COST BASIS = $54.50
LOSS-LIMIT/EXIT POINT =$56.50-$57.00



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