Multiple large banks have put out some very bearish notes over the last couple days. RBS warned on Tuesday to "sell everything." Apparently investors followed their advice today.
The markets opened higher on Wednesday despite another meltdown in China but the enthusiasm did not last. The selling began almost immediately and did not let up. Contrary to the prior two days there was no dip buying at the close with the S&P falling to 1,890 and only 4 points off its lows.
The RBS market call said "U.S. stocks would fall by 20% and oil will trade at $16 a barrel. Emerging markets will crumble as China assumes the role of Lehman Brothers in the sequel to the 2008 financial crisis. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small." Sell Everything
I should note that this particular analyst has a tendency to be bearish but this is over the top even for him.
The Asian markets are losing ground again tonight but the U.S. futures are up +7. That just shows if you want logic do not look in the equity markets. However, U.S. futures have been up overnight for the last three days only to see the markets sell off after the open.
While caution would have us waiting for some calm to return to the markets I am going to recommend two trades today. The oil sector should not improve materially for weeks to come and volatility is definitely here to stay for several weeks.
We cannot wait on the sidelines forever and I added the plays with the least risk that I could find. That is rather difficult in the current market. You will not hurt my feelings if you wait until next week to see if calm returns.
Send Jim an email
Items shaded in blue were previously closed.
Current Position Changes
Stop Loss Updates
Check the graphic above for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.
SWKS - Skyworks Solutions (Closed long put)
Skyworks had declined and we had a January $65 long put. With only a week left until expiration I recommended we close the put. That was before another warning on Apple iPhone production and a monster market crash appeared. Can I have that put back please?
Closed Jan $65 long put, entry .33, exit $1.00, +.67 gain.
CME - Chicago Mercantile (Closed Long Put)
The CME has declined to support at $87.50 and I recommended we close the long put. CME held at the $87 level until today when it dropped -$3 in a bad market.
Closed Jan $85 long put, entry .49, exit .60, +.11 gain
VXX - Vix Futures ETF (Call Spread)
The VXX is the ETF for the Volatility Index ($VIX). You can buy options on both but the options on the VIX are more expensive and has fewer strikes. The VXX has only traded over 38 once since 2014 and it was for a single day. The huge market volatility over the last couple of weeks has only succeeded in lifting it to 26. I am recommending a credit spread using the February 38/45 calls. There will not be a stop loss on this position because any spike in volatility that succeeds in lifting the VXX that high is likely to be very brief.
When the VXX was first introduced, it was considerably higher than it is today. When accounting for splits to keep is listed, it has traded well over 1,000. The vehicle is flawed and like so many other futures ETFs it has slowly declined over the years as fewer investors trade it. The flaw is obvious when the extreme volatility over the last three weeks has been unable to power it much higher.
Sell short Feb $38 call, currently .82, no stop loss
Buy long Feb $45 call, currently .52, no stop loss
Net credit 30 cents.
OIH - Market Vectors Oil Service ETF (Call Spread)
The OIH is supposed to replicate the Oil Service Index, which represents U.S. listed companies that are involved in oil services to the upstream oil sector, which includes drillers, producers, etc. The service sector is in real trouble. With the price of oil collapsing and companies taking rigs out of service at a record rate the demand for oil services is shrinking fast. Oil is not expected to firm until May although we could see some short term spikes from short covering or based on headlines.
Service companies that have work are being forced to discount their prices deeper every month in order to win contracts. Producers claim their new contracts are 25% to 40% below the rates they paid this time last year.
The XLE also offers an attractive spread using the 59.50/63.50 calls with a 29-cent net credit.
Sell short Feb $25 call, currently 39 cents, stop loss $24.25
Buy long Feb $29 call, currently 6 cents, no stop loss.
Net credit 33 cents.
Original Play Recommendations (Alpha by Symbol)
CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Put Spread)
Chicago Mercantile is the U.S. futures exchange and they are doing a thriving business with the directional moves in the commodity sector. With today's close at $98.25 they are within $2 of a new closing high.
Earnings Feb 4th.
Sell Jan $92.50 put, currently $1.45, stop loss $95.25
Buy long Jan $85 put, currently .55, no stop loss
Net credit 90 cents.
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF (Put Spread)
The next two weeks are typically the best two weeks of the year for the small cap stocks. However, you could not tell it from the decline today. The Russell fell -8 points while the other major indexes posted gains. However, there is decent support at 1,100 and I do believe a late year rally will appear. It may not be as strong as normal but we should see some gains.
I am picking strikes 115 points below the current index level at 1,115. I can't conceive of another 115 point drop in the next two weeks but this is the stock market and anything is possible but still not probable.
Sell short Jan $100 put, currently .53, stop loss $105.75
Buy long Jan $95 put, currently .27, no stop loss
Net credit 26 cents
QQQ - Nasdaq 100 ETF (Put Spread)
The Nasdaq 100 has sold off less than the other major indexes relative to its Aug/Sep lows. Large cap tech stocks are likely to be favored as window dressing for the end of December portfolio markup. With the QQQ declining only -4 points over the last week I seriously doubt it will drop another 10 to our short strike over the next several weeks. If it did that would be a major market meltdown.
Sell short Jan $100 put, currently .47, stop loss $105.75
Buy long Jan $94 put, currently .21, no stop loss
Net credit 26 cents.
SMH - Semiconductor ETF (Put Spread)
Semiconductors are in an uptrend and tech stocks normally do well over the next three weeks. I am recommending a $52 put that is under the November lows. The low in December was $53.37.
Sell short Jan $52 put, currently .55, stop loss $53.35
Buy long Jan $46 put, currently .20, no stop.
Net credit 35 cents.
SWKS - Skyworks Solutions (Put Spread)
Skyworks is in rally mode after another Apple supplier Avago (AVGO) reported full year earnings that spiked 83% last week. Investors were afraid that Apple was cutting orders for iPhone components and apparently Avago had not seen those cuts. Q3 revenue rose +16% and earnings +26%. This boosted all the Apple component suppliers including Skyworks.
Earnings are Jan 21st.
Sell short Jan $75 put, currently $1.35, stop loss $79.25
Buy long Jan $65 put, currently .40, no stop.
Net credit 95 cents.
Updare 12/30/15: We were stopped on the short side a couple weeks ago for a loss. The stock has been behaving fairly well and I am going to try and squeeze in another play to go with the long put we are holding. If you are NOT still holding the long put then don't enter this play.
Sell short Jan $73 put, currently .50, stop loss $75.95
Retain Jan $65 long put.
WYNN - Wynn Resorts (Put Spread)
Steven Wynn surprised everyone by purchasing over 1.0 million shares of WYNN stock over the last week according to an SEC filing. This gives him control of more than 11.07 million shares. Steve has always been a buyer on the dips. He knows what his franchise is worth and when the shares are cheap he steps in. When they are expensive he sells a few.
This purchase cost him about $62 million. That is a huge vote of confidence that suggests shares are not going lower. The bad news in Macau cannot get much worse and it is about time for some good news.
Earnings are Feb 3rd.
Sell short Jan $55 put, currently .95, stop loss $58.85
Buy long Jan $45 put, currently .45, no stop loss.
Net credit 50 cents.
Prices Quoted in Newsletter
At Option Investor we have a long-standing policy prohibiting the editors and staff from actually trading the individual recommendations in order to conform to SEC rules concerning trades.
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All of these rules normally produce worse prices than an active trader would normally get. Because they are standardized there may be some cases where a price quoted was better than an actual fill. If you received a price that was dramatically different than what was quoted please let us know.