Right after today's employment data were released, equity futures moved to the plus side and it looks like the market likes the number. We'd wait for a while until all market participants show up and cast their votes, but right now it doesn't look like there is any shock factor in the numbers. Bond Yields have risen too, signaling that the market is selling both the 10 and 30-year treasury just after the release of the economic data. Now... here's the data. Non-farm payrolls came in at 105,000, slightly lower than the 110,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate was reported at 4% and very close to analyst's estimates of 4.1%. Average hourly earning rose 0.4%, which is slightly higher than the 0.3% average estimate. Today's fair value is $14.33 with buying set at $16.58 and selling set for $11.78.
10-year Treasury Note Yield Chart - 60-minute interval
Yesterday we had a close eye on the 10-year yield (TNX.X) and when it dropped below the 50-period MA (thin blue) we saw selling pick up in the equity markets and the major indexes turned lower. Currently, the TNX.X is still trading below the 50-period MA at 50.40 or 5.04%. Traders might want to use the 50.40 level as an early alert to potential selling in this note and perhaps a sign of further strength for equities. While this morning's early activity indicates some selling, the above chart still tells us the market likes the 10-year more than it does equities and bullish traders in equities should be cautious!