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When Mr. Greenspan started speaking...

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Did traders see what happened to the equity and bond markets when Mr. Greenspan started speaking today? There was a definite defensive posture taken, but that has since started to ease. Bond YIELDS are now green in the 5-year (FVX.X), 10-year (TNX.X) and 30-year (TYX.X). Technology stocks that traded higher in the first half-hour of trading have since consolidated near their highs and we're looking for clues as to what can drive things higher.

10-year Treasury YIELD Chart - 60-minute interval.

Traders are watching the 50.83 (5.083%) level on the 10-year (TNX.X). A move above 51 could really get things going. Currently I'd say there's some positioning going on and squaring of some inventory at institutional trading desks.

Input Output Chart - 60-minute interval.

Earlier this morning I was reviewing some stocks we've talked about in the past couple of weeks. I found the "volume spike" in shares of Input/Output (NYSE:IO) interesting. The stock has been trading about 200,000 shares per day recently, but traded 200,000 in a 60-minute period today. A move above $13.10 could get things going, but MACD has me waiting for the break. You can perhaps envision how a move above $13.10 would have MACD turning higher, then giving the bullish trader more conviction in their trading. The overriding trend is up, but we need to be cognizant that there was a short-term violation of that upward trend. We're using MACD here to try and "eliminate" as many "negatives" as possible. Either the move below trend to $12 was a "head- fake" by the specialist to get some liquidity to fill an order (light volume has me thinking this was the case) or there's a big seller at current levels. I'd wait for the break above $13.10 just to try and make sure.

Disk Drive Index Chart - 60-minute interval.

In our 11:30 update we thought the 50% retracement level might be a point of short-term contention for the DDX.X and it looks like other participants thought so too. We'll be watching the 102 and 100 levels closely as an opportunity to buy a strong index if we didn't do so yesterday near 98. We'll also be watching bond yields!

Jeff Bailey
Staff Analyst

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