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The first cork to pop will be in the Dow Industrials!

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If there's going to be any celebrations for the bulls this year it's going to start with the Dow Industrials. Once again the Dow has traded just above the 11,000 level and has been met with selling. The higher lows give me the impression that that the champagne is on ice, but if it continues to get "shaken" the cork is going to pop and away the bulls will run. Don't underestimate how powerful a role the Dow Industrials play in investor psychology.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - 60-minute interval.

If there is any sign that the bulls will be partying in the near future it has to be the Dow Industrials (INDU). My scenario for a strong economy is laden with stocks in the Dow 30 that need to be doing well if technology stocks are ever going to benefit. The Dow Industrials may have to move above 11,200 to get the party started, but a close above 11,000 would certainly be our first sign for the champagne to flow. If this index doesn't trade 11,100 in the near future (next week or two), bullish traders in technology won't be needing their party hats.

10-year Treasury Note Yield Chart - 60-minute interval.

The bond market is closed, but the YIELD on the 10-year wasn't able to break above the 50.83. That's not the end of the world, but it can sure put a damper on things.

Jeff Bailey
Staff Analyst

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