Option Investor
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Market seems like it could care less about pending Fed rate cut

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Perhaps the MARKETS infinite wisdom is showing through today and isn't doing anything until it has the facts. Bonds have been stuck in a very tight trading range since their open and this gives traders little direction on what they should be doing short-term. We should know something at 2:15 EST, but right now the markets look dull.

Wait, look at the 5-year!

As soon as I finished the above paragraph, I'm seeing selling in the 5-year (FVX.X) and its YIELD has popped to 4.558%. When it has been stuck at 4.544% all day, this has my attention. This could be a major "heads up" to how the market reacts to the Fed news.

Market Indices

Here's what the markets look like currently. This morning, the only thing that excited me on the long side was the action we saw at the open in the Retail Index (RLX.X). About two hours later, the Forest/Paper Products Index (FPP.X) had very similar technicals to the RLX, but on a two-hour lag time. I alerted traders in the "hot list" on PremierMarkets.com to this and the FPP.X popped from 304 to current levels. Other than that now much has really been happening until the recent activity in the 5-year YIELD.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician

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