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Semiconductors testing downtrend

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The general consensus is that any rally must be supported by the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X). The SOX is doing its part, gaining 123 points in the past three days.

Semiconductor Index Daily Chart

Like many sectors, the Semiconductor Index is at a crossroads. The current resistance zone for the SOX is comprised of the psychological 600-level, the 50-day moving average, and the two- month downtrend. A convincing close above those three resistance points should clear the way to 650. One stock in this sector that has had its own problems with a downtrend is Intel (INTC). Looking at Intel's (INTC) daily chart shows a downtrend that has been in place since November of 2000. Several attempts have been made stop the slide, but with limited success.

Intel Daily Chart

Each short-term bottom was started by a volume spike, most likely formed by buyers coming off the sidelines. As prices advanced, buyers couldn't find any reinforcements, and were eventually overtaken by sellers. Points 1,2,3, and 5 on the above chart illustrate the rising prices on declining volume that set up the downtrend. With some traders starting the Easter holiday early, we may see a similar volume pattern setting up.

Jeffrey Canavan
Assistant Analyst

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