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If the trend is your friend, then....

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If the trend is your friend, then traders should be aware that the Dow Industrials (INDU) are rapidly approaching two downward trends that are very long-term in nature. One downward trend is a trend that is more correlative to how the Dow has traded, while the second is the most conventional way to draw trend (anchor to top and attach to next highest high).

Dow Industrials Chart - weekly interval

On March 22, 2001 at 01:30 EST I highlighted a bullish trade in the Dow Industrials as a "potentially low risk trade." My how things have changed. I'm sure I wasn't the only one thinking that at that time. That trade was more appropriate for the type of trader that thinks in terms of weeks than in minutes or hours. Currently, I'd rate the Dow as the strongest technically of the major indexes, but risk management tells me I should be taking some profits on those Dow Diamonds. Don't be surprised if you see a "potentially low risk short" show up in my commentary in the not so distant future. You can access "old" commentary in the archive section of the sites you subscribe to.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician

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