The Dow may be the laggard today, but based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data, that's were institutions are placing their bets.
S&P 500 COT Data
We'll start with S&P 500 futures, since they are the most heavily traded. S&P 500 futures have open interest of 489,781, as compared to 47,690 for Nasdaq-100 futures. The data for 5/15/01 shows surprising 22,345 jump in the net short position of commercial traders. Commercial traders had slowly been dumping their short positions since March 6th, so this abrupt reversal is a bit surprising. This data was compiled before the Dow broke through 11,000, so it will be interesting to see if Friday's report confirms the bearish tone of commercial traders.
Nasdaq-100 COT Data
Commercials' net position for the Nasdaq-100 also show a big jump in their bearish posture. The -12,711 reading is the second most bearish reading of the year. With the Nasdaq up 92 points today, its easy to shrug off this data, but commercial traders we're dumping their short positions two weeks before anybody saw a bottom. Just some food for thought.
Dow COT Data
The Dow COT data is a good reflection of what's going on in the markets. Institutions continue to load up on old economy stocks, as reflected in the net bullish position of 8,151 of commercial traders. Small traders keep adding short positions in Dow futures, their most bearish net position of the year, and loading up on long positions in Nasdaq futures.