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Traders have once again been able to shake off some bad news and bid the market higher. We're not talking exorbitant gains, the Dow is up 11, well it was when I started this paragraph, and the Nasdaq is higher by 27. Strangely enough, leading the market is the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X), up 4.54%. I would think that traders might be a little hesitant about buying semiconductor stocks before Intel's mid-quarter announcement after the bell today, but yet another report came out on expected growth. The Semiconductor Industry Association sees a second half recovery in the chip sector, and expects a next year's growth to pick up by 21%. Next year, I would be impressed if somebody could accurately predict next week's sales.

Semiconductor Index Daily Chart

The SOX has managed to get back above the up trend line, and looks like it has the 200-dma in its sights. A series of previous highs shows resistance between 710 and 730, and a close above 763.26 would set a new high for the year. The MACD has bounced off the zero line, and wants to move higher. Tonight's big announcement should determine how many resistance levels get broken. With Intel up 70 cents, traders are betting on a "we expect to meet the low-end of expectations, and see positive visibility in 2003," type answer. As resilient as the market has been lately, it would take a very bleak report to spark a massive sell off.

Jeffrey Canavan
Assistant Analyst

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