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Soup is Good Food

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During our daily banter in the office, Mr. Bailey pointed out the Campbell Soup (CPB) has a tendency to rally at the start of September. I decided to drop the data into Microsoft Access, and see if the theory holds true. Here's what I found.

Total Point Gain by Month for Campbell Soup (1992-2001)
January   ($22.98)
February  ($ 2.08)
March      $ 3.65
April     ($ 5.29)
May        $ 5.66
June       $ 2.21
July      ($ 0.58)
August    ($ 9.94)
September  $ 7.31
October    $21.31
November   $16.50
December  ($ 1.88)
Average Point Gain Average Percentage Gain
January ($2.30) (5.70%) February ($0.21) (0.21%) March $0.36 1.31% April ($0.53) (1.79%) May $0.57 2.04% June $0.22 0.06% July ($0.06) (0.24%) August ($1.10) (1.80%) September $0.81 3.81% October $2.37 7.26% November $1.83 5.48% December ($0.19) 0.39%
Campbell Soup Seasonality Charts

Campbell Soup has finished the month of September higher 6 out of the last 9 years, finished October higher 8 out of 9 times, and posted gains in November 5 of the past 9 years.

During those nine years Campbell has gained a total of $45.12 from September thru November, while losing a total of $31 the other nine months. The average monthly gain for the three-month period is $5.01, or 16.55%.

Nine years of data isn't statistically sound, but it's interesting nevertheless. Since August is coming to an end, lets see what Campbell is cooking up.

Campbell Soup Daily Chart

CPB has gained $2 in August, climbing above the 50-day moving average and breaking a seven-month downtrend in the process. The stock has since consolidated around $28. Resistance at $28.75 has to be dealt with and past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but could a seasonal up trend be brewing?

Jeffrey Canavan
Assistant Analyst

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