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Dow 10,000 remains elusive

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The Dow Industrials (INDU) traded as high as 9,990 this morning, but came just shy of the psychological 10,000 level. In early April of this year, the Dow Industrials fell below the 10,000 level and had similar problems getting back above that level. However, once above that level on April 10th, the Dow made an impressive move higher over the following weeks into late May where it achieved the 11,300 levels.

Dow Industrials Chart -

10,000 is very much a "psychological" number and that seems to be a level the market is having trouble with right now. A close above the 10,000 level could well lift a blanket of worry on the Dow Industrials as well as other market averages.

Retailing comments from Robertson Stephens and Merrill Lynch

Robertson Stephens believes 2001 holiday retail sales will be SURPRISINGLY STRONG, due to aggressive promotions and a rebound in consumer confidence. Notes include Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) reported record single-day sales for Friday Nov. 23, sees Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) as best-positioned in new environment due to strong in-stock commitment.

Merrill Lynch research note this morning touched on several names. Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) has Merrill saying traffic is strong enough for company to hit low single-digit comp sales plan and that PC sales look to be making a definitive bottom this Christmas. Traffic at Circuit City (NYSE:CC) looked light and sees potential downside to current estimates. Overall Merrill, says hardline sales so far this Christmas no weaker than any past recessions. Once investors see this, firm believes they will buy stocks of retail companies that are gaining market share. Favorites include Lowe's (LOW) $42.91 +0.06% and Best Buy (BBY).

The S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) has traded relatively flat today and currently traded down fractionally at $890. Our key resistance level for the group currently resides near the $900 level from retracement. Good correlation perhaps with the RLX.X at $900 and Dow Industrials at 10,000. Dow components Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) both make up a large portion of the Retail Index (RLX.X).

Intel announce breakthrough

Semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is saying its researchers have developed an innovative transistor structure and new materials that represent dramatic improvement in transistor speed, power efficiency and heat reduction. Intel says this technology development is an important milestone in the effort to maintain the pace of Moore's Law. Shares of Intel (INTC) traded as high as $32 in early morning trading and currently trade at $31.74.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
Option Investor

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