Option Investor
Market Updates

Little changed in past two-hours

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There's not a lot that has happened in the past couple of hours. Today's biggest action really looks to have been in the bond market. Lower YIELDS across the board is the story here. Action in the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) has me near-term concerned for stock prices as it sure looks like some cash is finding its way back into the recent higher YIELDS.

Equity bulls should begin limiting their trade size. For instance... if you normally trade $5,000, cut it back to $2,500 in your bullish trade. Even if the stock looks to have 8% upside. If you're right and the broader market cooperates and the stock moves higher, you're going to benefit. Should the action we see in the bond market truly become a pull on cash that could have gone into stock/option you bought and you suffer a decline, then you've limited your risk.

The reason we can still be looking at some bullish trades is what took place in late September and early October. At that point, stocks actually turned higher without the benefit of selling in the bond market. Since that time, the bond market played some "catch up" as we saw a good round of selling and YIELDS jumped higher. To me, that brought everything back inline.

While YIELDS did fall today (buying in bonds) that doesn't mean there aren't some good trades still to be had on the long side. I just suggest that bullish traders currently have a rather short-term view and be cognizant that there's some money rotating back into bonds. Again... its just one day right now, but longer-term trends start with the short-term.

I would also be rather careful right now with holding large positions overnight, if you are a more "short-term" oriented trader (usually only holds for 2 or 3 days).

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
Option Investor

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