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NASDAQ-Composite holding 1,975

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Just as Dow 10,000 is psychological, so is NASDAQ-Composite 2,000. While the NASDAQ-Composite (COMPX) has broken back below the 2,000 level today, we haven't see a floodgate of selling like some bears may have suspected. Our first level of retracement support at 1,975 has not been violated and that's where bears need a break near-term.

NASDAQ-Composite Index Chart - Daily Interval

In June, July and August, the 1,975 level was a support level until a firm break occurred and 50% retracement at 1,870 was tested. Back then, the NASDAQ-Composite didn't have the benefit of a 50-day and 200-day MA to add some technical support. Bearish traders that think they're in for a cakewalk had better think again and be willing to trade for some profits when they get them. Earnings season is now getting under way and many analysts threw in their towels last quarter and drastically reduced earnings estimates. That could create some "upside surprises" near-term and create some volatile trading.

The bond market is about to close and we've actually seen the 5- year, 10-year and 30-year YIELDS all finish in the positive. This tells us we didn't see a mass move toward bonds today and that's what a bearish equity trader wanted to see. With the bond market now close, we may well see stocks drift marginally higher into the close since we didn't see a mass move toward bonds today. Shorter-term option traders holding some January puts or calls need to assess risk/reward in their trades as option expiration is this Friday.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
Option Investor

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