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"Right shoulder" not looking likely

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I have received multiple e-mails from subscribers, which looks to be from "home builder bears" mentioning the potential of a head and shoulders top as a reason to be very bearish this group of stocks. Today's action should have sector bears beginning to make the observation that this pattern may not be panning out.

Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Chart - Daily interval

The DJUSHB leads sector gainers today, despite a broader market that is edging lower. Most likely, institutional bears that rely on technical analysis are sitting some bids and taking offers as the DJUSHB looks to be violating any type of reverse head and shoulders pattern. Volume spiked on the upward move the previous two sessions, hinting that buyers were rather aggressive. If short some underlying stocks in the market (DJUSHB), subscribers playing the economic scenario that the housing "bubble" will burst, need to assess risk to the 52-week high of 397.40. From there, any overhead supply will be hard to find.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
Option Investor

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