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Mixed economic data has stock futures lower

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Investors were overwhelmed with a plethora of economic data that is sending mixed signals about the economy and the early reaction form stock futures is negative.

While stock futures were lower ahead of the released data, losses in the futures markets have been extended, but edging back some from their lowest levels of the session.

S&P futures are currently down 3.9 points at 840.10, NASDAQ futures are down 14 points at 938 and Dow futures are down 45 points at 8,160.

Fair value for the S&P 500 today is $0.86. That price will not change during the session. HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $3.08 and set for selling at $-2.42. Fair value for the NASDAQ-100 today is $3.24.

Treasuries are seeing marginal selling in the longer-end of the major maturities as YIELDS head higher. This action actually seems to be putting a bit of a floor under stock futures as they edge up from morning lows. The benchmark 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) is up marginally at 4.408%. The shorter-term 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) is fractionally lower (result of buying in the bond) as YIELD here edges down to 3.467%.

Economic data reads like this

This morning's headline numbers have Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 20 coming in at 362,000, which was well below consensus of 385,000. This is considered a "good" number.

The employment cost index for the second quarter rose 1%, which was slightly higher than the 0.8% forecasted by economists. The slight rise here is slightly "negative," but may not get that much of a response from the MARKET.

June Durable Goods orders fell -3.8% lead by a 47% drop in orders for new aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders fell -3.1%. The decline in new orders was widespread across industries. Only defense goods (+18.5%) showed improvement. Shipments fell -1.4% while inventories dropped -0.5%. Unfilled orders declined by -1.4%. Core capital goods orders sank -5.2% after healthy gains in April and May. Economists were looking for durable goods orders to rise +0.5%, so this morning's number here was a disappointment.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
Option Investor

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