Bulls couldn't have gotten a better break as it relates to Friday's 03:00 update and the S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) finishing just a smidge above the 426.43 level of retracement resistance. This morning's early selling in Treasuries along with a stronger U.S. Dollar as OEX traders now monitoring the previously identified bullish range of 450-459 as an upside near-term target.
S&P 100 Index Chart - Daily Interval
Stocks are seeing some nice upside moved today. While rallies in the recent past have failed, most likely due to lack of bullish cash available, the recent strength in the U.S. dollar and a rather suspicious reversal in the 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 3.485% from the 3.3% YIELD last Wednesday hints that the current rally for stocks isn't just short-covering, but some equity bulls showing back up.
With the S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) from www.stockcharts.com still "bear confirmed" bullish traders should only be legging into bullish positions with 1/4 or 1/2 bullish positions in stocks that still trade above bullish support trends. However, the low bullish % reading for this market (S&P 100) is very oversold at just 10% bullish. This is lower than September's reading of 16%, which amazing as it may seem, has this market "less risky" for bulls than that found after the terrorist attacks. Tonight's bullish % reading will be closely watched. Currently, it would take a reading of 14% to have this market reaching a "bull alert" status.