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Chart of the SOX

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The Dow started the morning off 380 points for the week, so a massive rally would be needed by the end of the day for the week to turn out positive.

The bullish percentages in the Dow, OEX, S&P 500 and NDX have all reversed into columns of "O"s and today's rally is unlikely to lead to the necessary 3-box reversal required to reverse these signals.

Do I sound overly bearish on a rally day? Probably so. But it seems that this week's news (which showed a decrease in manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM reports, increasing layoffs, a lowering of revenue guidance by Intel, predictions by Banc America that the semis would shave another 15-25% off of earnings forecasts for 2003 and that the SOX would bottom out around 200, a decrease in manufacturing jobs of 68,000 in August, and a breaking of the trend of higher highs and higher lows in the major indices) would indicate that we are eventually headed lower.

The Nasdaq trading on its highs of the day shows that we still have buying momentum, however, we still have another 20 points to go for the week to turn out flat. As Friday moves forward, we have next week's 9/11 anniversary to look forward to. I find it hard to believe a rally will extend into the end of the day, as many investors will want out ahead of any sell-off next week leading up to the anniversary. However, it most likely depends on just how worried the tech shorts are. If we actually break higher in the Nasdaq for the week, we could see massive short covering, however, my inclination is to expect a stall today and then a sell-off on Monday.

Steve Price
Option Investor


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