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Du Pont raises outlook

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Dow component DuPont (NYSE:DD) $37.31 helped give Dow futures (dj02) a boost higher this morning after the chemical giant raised its Q3 outlook to a range of $0.35-$0.37 earnings per share (excluding items), which exceeded the company's earlier estimates of $0.24 per share. The company said the upside surprise reflects expectations that Q3 provisions for income taxes will be lower than expected.

Stock futures recovered from their earlier morning lows on DuPont's (DD) news as Dow futures (dj02z) 7,785 are higher by 30 points, S&P futures (sp02z) are edging up 0.2 points to 830.70, but NASDAQ futures (nd02z) trade down 6.5 points at 851.50.

Economic data release this morning has jobless claims for the week ending 09/28 rising by 5,000 to 417,000, which was a bit higher than the 410,000 consensus. Continuing claims rose by 29,000 in the prior week, indicating that new hiring remains weak. Economists are saying that the September claims trend suggests a very definite risk that tomorrow's payroll number will show a decline, which would be consistent with the modest pace of recovery seen this year.

Later this morning, the markets will get more economic data with the release of August factory orders (consensus -0.3%) and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index (consensus 51.4%).

After last night's earning's warning from Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) $5.37, Lehman Brothers analyst Dan Niles is saying that estimates at semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $14.35 have to come down. Mr. Niles expects Intel (INTC) consensus estimates for 2002-2003 to come down by $0.02-$0.04 and $0.05- $0.08, respectively (consensus for 2002 is $0.53 and 2003 is $0.77) and believes that although September was "not great," INTC should come within the lower half of their $6.3-$6.7 billion revenue guidance, EPS should be closer to his firm's $0.12 than the consensus of $0.13, and the Q4 consensus revenue growth estimates of 7% will come down to his firm's 5% estimate. Shares of Intel (INTC) slid 10-cents in pre-market trading to $14.25.

Fair value and program trading premium levels

Fair value for the S&P 500 today is $0.62. That price will not change during the session. HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.32 and set for program selling at $-1.62. Fair value for the NASDAQ-100 today is $3.20.

Jeff Bailey

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