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From pivot weakness, can come strength

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Index bulls have to be encouraged with today's current trade as the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,031 +0.76% gets a bounce after testing an important level of support at its WEEKLY S1 of 1,018 and this "strength from weakness" in our pivot analysis is helping the Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,192 -0.07%, S&P 500 Index (OEX.X) 441 +0.12% and S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 441 +0.13% hold tough at their WEEKLY pivots.

Here's a quick look at the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) daily interval chart, which we reviewed in last night's Index Trader wrap at OptionInvestor.com. We've been following the action in the market monitor and as bullishness looks to build in the Dow, SPX and OEX, the ability of the NDX to firm up at a key support level is encouraging to bulls.

NASDAQ-100 Index Chart - Daily Interval

Traders can see how the WEEKLY S2 of 1,017.50 ties in nicely with the 38.2% conventional retracement that is anchored from the October lows to December highs and marks both a key level of resistance from January to mid-March, when broken to the upside on March 13th and closed that level, has served as support on pullbacks.

As the session progresses, I'm just now seeing the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.923% begin to move above our DAILY Pivot of 3.917%, which I consider intra-day YIELD resistance, that as it is being broken above to the upside, also builds some bullish thoughts for equities that we are perhaps seeing a shift away from the more "defensive" Treasuries toward stocks on the pullback. The 10- year YIELD, much like the Dow Industrials, SPX and OEX had been hanging around its WEEKLY pivot of 3.903%.

Shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) $24.60 +0.12% are today's most actively traded stock at just over 34 million shares. Today's decline to $24.82 briefly pierced below a trying to round out 50- day SMA of $24.37, and not unlike the NASDAQ-100 bounce from April 1, found MSFT rebounding from a pullback into its 50-day SMA on March 31 and April 1. Microsoft is the most heavily weighted stock in the NASDAQ-100 at 11.4% with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $16.90 +1.31%, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $13.07 +0.23% and Qualcomm (NSADAQ:QCOM) $32.52 +0.96% weighing in with 4.83%, 4.19% and 3.88% weightings.

Sector action on a broader scale has bled red and now green with the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 103.21 +2.56% and Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 85.59 +2.5% leading sector gainers, while Airlines (XAL.X) 32.29 -1.7% sees weakness after JP Morgan cut their 2003 revenue forecast for the airline industry from +2% to -6% to reflect a slower-than-anticipated recovery in airline travel.

Jeff Bailey

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