Index Wrap
11:38:50 AM EDT | 03/13/2010
Is Tech Enough?
By Leigh Stevens | In 4 out of the last 5 weeks, both the S&P and the Nasdaq indexes gained ground, but the S&P could be stalled at its prior top and Nasdaq may be at some resistance also. One question is whether rising tech stocks can keep pulling all boats higher.

Index Wrap
07:50:06 PM EDT | 03/06/2010
Up, Up and Away
By Leigh Stevens | This past week's rally ran in a pretty much straight line higher, with the afterburners kicking in on Friday. COMP and RUT were the standout performers, with the Russell even regaining its up trendline dating from the March low of last year.

Index Wrap
07:47:35 PM EDT | 02/27/2010
Lean Bullish
By Leigh Stevens | The recent whippy price action, but with closing levels holding not far under recent highs, suggests potential for more upside. I lean to this bullish view but also suspect that 'getting there' might be a little torturous.

Index Wrap
06:56:05 PM EDT | 02/20/2010
Strong Upside Follow Through
By Leigh Stevens | The strong week we've just had was consistent with my expectation that the market had likely made a low on 2/5. That day had the kind of reversal pattern often seen at oversold bottoms, with a sharply lower new intraday low, followed by a strong rebound and a close near intraday highs.

Index Wrap
06:17:54 PM EDT | 02/13/2010
A Mixed Bag
By Leigh Stevens | While technically the market looks to be in recovery mode, an 'irregular' downside correction with one more down leg can't be ruled out just yet.

Index Wrap
08:08:48 PM EDT | 02/06/2010
Downside objectives: fulfilled or not?
By Leigh Stevens | There are more technical reasons to figure that this correction has run its course than not. Such as in terms of how close the S&P got to fulfilling a key downside objective and especially that the Nasdaq held prior support.

Index Wrap
09:03:04 PM EDT | 01/30/2010
Short-term Rebound Potential
By Leigh Stevens | The major indices have fallen far enough and are oversold enough to set up a rally. Longer-term I find the lack of any significant build up of bearish sentiment to suggest that, after a rally, another downswing would likely follow.

Index Wrap
08:49:53 PM EDT | 01/23/2010
And, Away It Went!
By Leigh Stevens | The bearish rising wedge chart pattern in the major indexes that formed since September-early November, most often occurs ahead of a sharp reversal. I'd say that last week's decline definitely qualifies!

Index Wrap
07:43:44 PM EDT | 01/16/2010
A Bearish 'Rising Wedge' pattern
By Leigh Stevens | The chart pattern in the major indexes that has formed since September, that of a rising wedge is typically is a 'reversal' type formation. It is not typically a major trend changer, rather short to intermediate-term.

Index Wrap
04:33:28 PM EDT | 01/09/2010
Continued Upside Progress
By Leigh Stevens | Most stocks and stock groups continued to advance this past week and all the major indexes (the Dow lagged a bit) saw further gains, including the NYSE Composite Index (NYA), which had a decisive breakout above its line of prior highs. Oil Stocks (OIX), the Gold & Silver Index (XAU) and the Semiconductors (SOX) saw good gains on the week.

Index Wrap
01:31:33 PM EDT | 01/02/2010
Not So Fast
By Leigh Stevens | Sellers in last half hour whacked the market on the last trading day of the year. Various 'reasons' were cited. I chalk this up to (mostly) nervous profit taking ahead of a long weekend and an overbought market.

Index Wrap
06:52:15 PM EDT | 12/26/2009
Breakout
By Leigh Stevens | The longer the sideways move went on the more doubt increased in me that maybe this was NOT a bullish consolidation but instead perhaps a top was forming. I can be a harbinger sometimes of when it's time to act on my original premise by the level of doubt that creeps in the longer the market doesn't do what I expect.

Index Wrap
03:52:35 PM EDT | 12/19/2009
A Mixed Picture
By Leigh Stevens | The longer this sideways move goes on the more it seems like the S&P and Dow at least, are building a top, although to be sure we have to wait for a confirming break below the low end of the 5 week old trading range. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq made a new weekly high and looks poised to breakout to the upside, so go figure.

Index Wrap
05:43:04 PM EDT | 12/12/2009
Sideway moves tell us something
By Leigh Stevens | No doubt the continued lateral trend seems like more of the same and is not telegraphing a next price swing or direction, but this pattern is telling us something. The longer the current sideways move goes on, the more upside, or downside, potential should lie ahead.

Index Wrap
04:45:37 PM EDT | 12/05/2009
Sidewinder
By Leigh Stevens | With the current sideways trend, it's hard to say whether the major indexes are building an interim top or consolidating prior to another up leg. Upside progress has slowed but all but the Russell 2000 did manage to make new weekly highs.

Index Wrap
07:21:57 PM EDT | 11/28/2009
Backing Off From Resistance
By Leigh Stevens | As anticipated, once the S&P and Dow hit the technical resistance areas highlighted last week, the resulting pullback was predictable. When the market is ready to correct there is an 'outside' triggering event, but the true 'cause' owes more to market internals.

Index Wrap
04:54:01 PM EDT | 11/21/2009
Hitting resistance
By Leigh Stevens | There are different ways of measuring potential price 'resistance' in an advance and one good one is seen when a major down trendline is reached. When coupled with completion of a key retracement level, the result is often then a pullback or at least a pause in the trend.

Index Wrap
03:23:38 PM EDT | 11/14/2009
Some Struggle at Prior Highs
By Leigh Stevens | The big cap S&P 100 (OEX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX), as well as the Dow 30 (INDU) all cleared their prior mid-October highs but the broader indexes are struggling some in the area of prior highs, reflecting a still somewhat overbought situation. This may result in only a limited further up leg in OEX, NDX and INDU and/or a choppy sideways trend ahead that 'throws off' an overbought condition.

Index Wrap
06:07:59 PM EDT | 11/07/2009
S&P rebound led by Dow; double bottom in NDX
By Leigh Stevens | The S&P and Dow have continued their bullish pattern of achieving higher pullback lows on corrections. Not so in the Nasdaq, but the Nas 100 (NDX) formed a bullish double bottom relative to its last downswing and the Composite rebounded from the low end of it's broad uptrend channel.

Index Wrap
09:19:26 PM EDT | 10/31/2009
Volatility and downside surprises
By Leigh Stevens | I suggested last week that the technical tea leaves suggested that a deeper pullback could be next. By Friday this was apparent even to the died-in-the wool bulls (wouldn't they be sheep?) and that was part of the problem.

Index Wrap
06:37:14 PM EDT | 10/24/2009
A Mixed Picture
By Leigh Stevens | This past week's sideways move looks most like a bullish consolidation of the prior uptrend in the S&P and Dow while the prior upside Nasdaq momentum appears to be slipping. A mixed picture on balance and I'm not making new bets yet on which way the market goes from here.

Index Wrap
08:42:11 PM EDT | 10/17/2009
Dow 10,000 but double tops elsewhere
By Leigh Stevens | While it could be anticipated that the Dow would get to 10,000 and make a new high for it's move, the Nasdaq and the related Russell 2000 have formed double tops to date. Unexpectedly, this makes last week's prediction for Dow 10000 AND a warning of a possible double top both true!

Index Wrap
08:05:54 PM EDT | 10/10/2009
Can't keep the Bull down
By Leigh Stevens | Just when it seemed like the market might finally have a more extensive retracement of its last major up leg, traders and investors threw more money into stocks this past week. Once again bullish sentiment was way up and the major indexes are nearing their prior highs so be alert for a possible double top.

Index Wrap
06:08:56 PM EDT | 10/03/2009
Anatomy of a Trend
By Leigh Stevens | The peak of option trader bullishness on a 5-day moving average basis (per my sentiment indicator) on 9/18 coincided quite closely with the recent top. There was one slightly higher Close in the S&P two days later but it was downhill after that.

Index Wrap
09:35:38 PM EDT | 09/19/2009
Bullishness reigns supreme
By Leigh Stevens | Traders are buying lots of calls and throwing caution to the wind, as they did in late-August. Is this so much bullishness that that the market is due for a pause like the minor pullback seen after the prior such extreme?

Index Wrap
07:17:08 PM EDT | 09/12/2009
Bull Market Rolls On
By Leigh Stevens | The Nasdaq has reasserted its leadership as the Composite and Nas 100 achieved decisive upside penetrations of their prior highs. It's worth noting that technical considerations also point to increasing risk of a correction but that's nothing really new.

Index Wrap
07:55:53 PM EDT | 09/05/2009
Resilient Market: uptrend Intact
By Leigh Stevens | The technical/chart definition for at least an interim reversal of an uptrend is when the prior downswing low is pierced on a closing basis; this should be more than a 1-day affair also. On that basis the current bullish chart patterns for the S&P and Nasdaq are intact.

Index Wrap
07:42:26 PM EDT | 08/29/2009
S&P Taking the 'Leadership' Reins?
By Leigh Stevens | It would be typical for when the economy is seen as at or near recovery that the cyclical stocks that predominate more in the S&P and Dow, would assume some leadership. That is seen in the charts as the S&P is holding to a bullish pattern and the Nasdaq looks to be struggling to hold recent gains.

Index Wrap
07:53:48 PM EDT | 08/22/2009
Up into Expiration and High Bullishness
By Leigh Stevens | You would think this was a 'bubble' the way prices snap back and in the assumption that all is clear sailing ahead for stocks. Tech stocks have slowed their upside momentum some and I don't think they've repealed the laws of gravity; what goes up can come down.

Index Wrap
07:06:56 PM EDT | 08/15/2009
Won't go up, won't go down
By Leigh Stevens | The question regarding this recent sideways trend is whether prices will fall much from current levels and have a 'normal' pullback. The probabilities for a next move tends to favor a downside correction rather than another upside breakout or a continued lateral move.

Index Wrap
07:35:39 PM EDT | 08/08/2009
The Bulls maintain control
By Leigh Stevens | A correction looked due to me last week, now it looks OVERDUE, but the bulls have the bit in their teeth (pardon the horse metaphor). Corrections to overheated markets usually come later rather than sooner however.

Index Wrap
07:35:48 PM EDT | 08/01/2009
Correction odds increase
By Leigh Stevens | There's a time to hold them and a time to fold em and this looks like a time to take a least half or most of index call profits and stand aside. I'm not bearish in any major way, but upside momentum has recently slowed in the leading Nasdaq, all the major indexes are at overbought extremes and the substantial increase in bullishness has rounded out my cautionary stance.

Index Wrap
11:37:57 AM EDT | 07/26/2009
Market up, bullishness down
By Leigh Stevens | While there is a significant risk of a correction or pullback near-term given an overbought market, trader bullishness as I measure it has been declining. This situation is most of time ideal conditions for a continued advance, even with speed bumps along the way.

Index Wrap
00:02:54 AM EDT | 07/25/2009

By Jim Brown | Leigh's Index Wrap will be posted to the website on Sunday.

Index Wrap
00:02:54 AM EDT | 07/25/2009

By Jim Brown | Leigh's Index Wrap will be posted to the website on Sunday.

Index Wrap
06:48:36 PM EDT | 07/18/2009
Whippy
By Leigh Stevens | The market whips down; the market whips back up, still in a trading range in the S&P and in a minor breakout to new highs in the Nasdaq. For shorter-term traders and sellers of premium a delight, but tough for those waiting for the next big leg up or the bears wait for a collapse (good luck).<

Index Wrap
05:00:40 PM EDT | 07/11/2009
Continued drift lower
By Leigh Stevens | Mostly the current technical/chart patterns suggest prices will continue to drift lower, although the S&P (not the Dow) is hanging in so far at the low end of a well-defined trading range. The Nasdaq 100 appears to have some potential support around 1350-1330.

Index Wrap
09:20:14 PM EDT | 07/04/2009
Breakdown
By Leigh Stevens | This past week ended up as a bust for any hopes that the leading Nasdaq indexes would overcome their prior highs. Instead, COMP and NDX reversed after repeatedly hitting resistance at their 'kiss of death' trendlines; i.e., resistance implied by a return to previously broken up trendlines.

Index Wrap
08:42:44 PM EDT | 06/20/2009
Losing Momentum
By Leigh Stevens | The breakout came to the downside and I anticipate further selling pressures ahead. While the most common breakout after a sideways move in an uptrend is to the upside, the odds for this drops significantly when the major indexes are also registering overbought readings.

Saturday, June 13, 2009
Index Wrap
Sidewinder
By Leigh Stevens | The major indexes have stalled and there are two views here: 1) the uptrend will resume after a sideways move 'throws off' the overbought condition or 2), the market is making at least an interim top. I lean bullish but am waiting for a breakout up or down

Saturday, June 06, 2009
Index Wrap
Breakout Into a Second (Up) Leg
By Leigh Stevens | A cautionary note as it often is in strong prolonged moves is that the major indexes are now as or about as overbought as occurred ahead of the last correction. Market sentiment is at a high bullish level, but is not as extreme as it gets at what I consider to be 'too hot not to cool down' tops!

Saturday, May 30, 2009
Index Wrap
Start of 2nd Leg Up?
By Leigh Stevens | My market outlook continues to be that the rebound that began in early-March will end up being a major bull market recovery rally. The question is whether the recent rather shallow correction is all there's going to be before the start of the second big leg up.

Saturday, May 23, 2009
Index Wrap
Sideways to lower near-term
By Leigh Stevens | My analysis is that the rebound that began in early-March will end up being a major bull market recovery rally. After the current correction runs its course I anticipate a second up leg coming that's stronger and more powerful than the first advance (3/6-5/7).

Saturday, May 9, 2009
Index Wrap
S&P Surges, Nasdaq Pauses
By Leigh Stevens | With the rebound in the financial stocks the S&P has seen surging upside momentum, while the Nasdaq has had a bout of profit taking. Both markets have touched overbought RSI extremes recently, but bullish sentiment moderated after Monday's rally which suggests that the market may go still higher.

Sunday, May 3, 2009
Index Wrap
S&P testing resistance, Nasdaq rolls through
By Leigh Stevens | I don't know what is going to knock this market down but it seems unlikely to be 'bad' news unless it was really horrible and beyond any current imaginings. Really 'good' news might do it!

Saturday, April 25, 2009
Index Wrap
Toppy?
By Leigh Stevens | While all the major indices went to new weekly Closing highs and in the case of the market leading Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Nas 100 (NDX), to new highs for the current advance, all are approaching some key resistances that could lead to a correction. A correction can be a sharp or shallow retracement, in the later case this tending more to a sideways move than sharply lower.

Saturday, April 18, 2009
Index Wrap
Rally Extends to Six Weeks
By Leigh Stevens | With the recent rally in the financial stocks the S&P 500 (SPX) is now within a hair's breath of piercing its Jan-Feb highs in the 875-878 area, thereby joining the Nasdaq in what has already been accomplished. This market continues to be overbought near to intermediate-term and bullish sentiment got to an extreme at the beginning of this past week, making it relatively high risk for initiating new bullish strategies.

Saturday, April 11, 2009
Index Wrap
Up, Up and Away
By Leigh Stevens | This past week, the bellwether Nasdaq 100 (NDX) 'confirmed' the major November-early March double bottom by AGAIN piercing its prior (early-Jan, early-Feb) highs, this time more decisively. Moreover, the upside price gap that occurred (i.e., the 'gap' between the Wednesday High and the Thursday Low) suggested accelerating upside momentum.

Saturday, April 4, 2009
Index Wrap
Correction Came, Correction Went
By Leigh Stevens | The market had the correction I was anticipating, but it was a 1-2 day affair, followed by a bullish rally above the prior highs of the major indexes. The bellwether Nasdaq 100 (NDX) 'confirmed' it's November-early March double bottom by piercing its prior (early-Jan, early-Feb) highs for two days running.

Saturday, March 28, 2009
Index Wrap
Due For a Correction
By Leigh Stevens | When I say that technically the major indexes are due for a correction, it doesn't mean a claim of certainty or that I know more than the market, but that in terms of probabilities based on past historical patterns, the odds of, for example, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) going up another 100 points is considerably less than the index having a 100 point pullback from recent highs

Saturday, March 21, 2009
Index Wrap
Pick Your Spots
By Leigh Stevens | In this market you got to pick your spots and those are not going to be frequent. The last decent index trade was buying calls when the S&P and the Nasdaq got oversold and traders got overly bearish, and the recent best place to exit was when the main indexes got overbought and traders got overly bullish.

Saturday, March 14, 2009
Index Wrap
Dead Cat bounce or start of something?
By Leigh Stevens | The talk and question in my circle of trader-friends and from some subscribers has been whether this recent rally is the start of something more substantial than an oversold ('dead cat') bounce. Even if re-tested, major lows may be in place.

Saturday, March 7, 2009
Index Wrap
Unrelenting Bear
By Leigh Stevens | I'm not encouraged about the market making a significant bottom yet given my bearish sentiment indicator and therefore in terms of what options traders are actually DOING, versus saying. What they are not doing is fleeing into puts such that it creates at least a one extreme day in terms of bearish sentiment.

Saturday, February 28, 2009
Index Wrap
How Low Can We Go?
By Leigh Stevens | Recently I wrote about the tendency for the market to go from extreme to extreme. Now that the major indexes have broken under prior 12-month lows (except Nasdaq), a key question becomes how low can we go or how extreme could it get?

Saturday, February 21, 2009
Index Wrap
From Extreme to Extreme
By Leigh Stevens | On a technical basis the market typically goes from extreme to extreme in terms of certain key indicators, especially the overbought-oversold extremes measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and in terms of bullish-bearish sentiment. So, it wasn't surprising to see the S&P get slammed to the extent that it's finally gone from overbought (1/6) to oversold.

Saturday, February 14, 2009
Index Wrap
This Market Needs a Stimulus!
By Leigh Stevens | Happy Valentine's Day and I hope you enjoy hearts and flowers because the market is not giving much here. The narrowing trading range makes for a strictly sideways trend in the S&P and Dow, although the Nasdaq 100 has a minor uptrend going currently but still faces a potent double top at 1286.

Saturday, February 7, 2009
Index Wrap
Breakout; Not Yet a Change in Trend
By Leigh Stevens | A primary reason that I continually adjust trendlines is so that they best reflect where piercing a down (or up) trendline would suggest a technical breakout (or breakdown). Friday saw a decisive upside breakout above the Sept-Jan down trendlines (and the key 21/55 day moving averages), suggesting a possible shift in the bearish trend, but not yet a change in trend.

Saturday, January 31, 2009
Index Wrap
Rally To Resistance, then STOP!
By Leigh Stevens | It looks like the S&P 500, which is the best gauge of the overall market currently, is still stuck in a trading range and unable to break out above its Sept-Jan down trendline where the recent rally STOPPED. For followers of the Dow Theory, this past week saw new closing weekly lows in the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports, 'negating' any bullish significance to their early-January move above late-November highs.

Saturday, January 24, 2009
Index Wrap
Market holding up ok, unlike economy
By Leigh Stevens | Not much changed technically in the past week as the market whipped back and forth but within a relatively narrow trading range; e.g., S&P 500 (SPX) 850 to 804. Meanwhile of course the economy is steadily deteriorating and you might wonder why the market isn't headed to new lows.

Saturday, January 17, 2009
Index Wrap
Betwixt and Between
By Leigh Stevens | Last week the S&P and Nasdaq major indexes had reached a juncture where intraday highs connected to an extension of the key down trendline on the daily charts and I could forecast a decline. The pullback in the past week ended in the area of recent prior lows, suggesting that key resistance AND key support areas are now apparent and prices hang between.

Saturday, January 10, 2009
Index Wrap
BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD
By Leigh Stevens | One of the aspects of using technical analysis and analyzing charts in particular, is that you have to adjust and re-draw trendlines over time in order to get an accurate forecast of where prices are going. Given the recent pullback I was led to consider that recent highs may 'complete' (bearish) down trendlines, which negates the idea that the most recent rally constituted an upside breakout.

Saturday, January 3, 2009
Index Wrap
BREAKOUT
By Leigh Stevens | As this current advance continues to unfold, I started out in the first up leg, with a strong bullish outlook based on the falling wedge pattern which is (again) highlighted on my first chart, the S&P 500 (SPX). Going against the wisdom of going home with who you came to the party with, I then turned very cautious about the potential for the major indexes to break out above key resistances suggested by the 21 and especially the 55-day moving averages and by the top end of the August-November bearish downtrend channel.

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