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Index Wrap

Massive Fatigue

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      10-24-2001          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9345.62 +  5.54  9388.86  9278.70 1.34 bln   1359/1733
NASDAQ   1731.54 + 27.10  1763.17  1697.69 1.86 bln   1931/1646
S&P 100   558.69 -  0.36   561.94   556.55   Totals   3290/3379
S&P 500  1085.20 +  0.42  1090.26  1079.98             
RUS 2000  427.65 +  0.28   428.00   426.33
DJ TRANS 2221.01 - 40.98  2281.85  2216.04
VIX        32.87 -  0.32    34.49    32.31 
VXN        61.91 -  1.82    64.90    61.91
TRIN        1.01 
Put/Call    0.49

Massive Fatigue
Austin Passamonte

I'm exhausted. I spent both Saturday and Sunday last weekend in a nasty section of the Rocky Mountains chasing elk with Eric Utley of OI editor fame. We didn't have high hopes for even seeing a live elk let alone harvesting one and weren't disappointed in that aspect. We did spend most daylight hours both days climbing higher but occasionally dropping lower in elevation and might have even snuck in a nap or two along the way.

By the time Sunday afternoon rolled around we were physically spent and a bit confused on precisely where we were in relation to the vehicle. Wouldn't say we were lost, just directionally challenged. It was all we could muster to keep plodding along neither gaining nor losing elevation as we tried to cipher just which way to go.

By & by we assessed the terrain, took an educated guess on what lie ahead and struck off in the direction we believed salvation to be. Once we reached familiar ground a wave of euphoria swept over us and our pace quickened easily. That lasted about an hour into the hour and twenty minute trek to the road. Those last twenty minutes were sheer will to climb the last 200 yard cliff straight up 70+ degrees in ascent to the highway. By the time we reached his vehicle it was all we could do to slump into our seats and head down the mountain from whence we came.

Had we actually managed to bag an elk in that lost, forsaken terrain we would have regretted it. Just the thought of packing out more than my empty M&M wrappers was more than I could fathom.

And what exactly does this boring tale have to do with the stock markets? Everything.

From September 21st thru the next three weeks the indexes made their way easily higher across vertical ground, with the occasional dip and pause for sleep along the way. The last 1.5 weeks have seen indexes (and leading sectors) looking mighty fatigued indeed as they move sideways, neither gaining nor losing altitude. Program buying on another asset allocation move Monday gave market bulls a moment of jubilation until they realized their was no follow-thru from there. I'm wondering if the last few hundred points up the charts from here might prove as grueling to the bulls as my ascent to Eric's Range Rover was Sunday night.

Lastly, there are more than a few stocks getting ramped way too high right now and someone is chasing them at current prices. Somebody may soon regret actually catching them should price action fail to hold. Then again, someone always buys the top and sells the bottom of each market move and both usually occur on high volume as well!

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