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Index Wrap

Better late than never\?

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Today's upgrade of chip giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $33.39 -1.41% to "overweight" from "neutral" was seen by some as being better late than never, but for some of grief JP Morgan received when potentially calling the top on Intel and perhaps the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 510.63, the call was actually a bullish add-on to the firm's September 26th upgrade to "neutral" from "underweight" when the stock opened for trade at $27.50.

In the world of broker upgrades and downgrades, it may seem like JP Morgan was just getting bullish today, but in fact, their upgrading of the stock on September 26, before the opening bell, is where JP Morgan actually turned bullish the stock.

Still, such upgrades, even from late September from a major brokerage house with a lot of research capabilities does raise the question on whether the bullish call comes too late. But when weighed against recent improvement from the labor markets, JP Morgan's call has some technology bulls wondering just what kind of increases are going to be seen in corporate IT spending this quarter, as corporations upgrade their computer technology in what JP Morgan sees as a new product cycle just getting underway.

A weekend cover story in Barron's highlighted IBM (NYSE:IBM) $89.95 +1.91% helped IBM buck the broader market downtrend in today's session, with the company spotlighted as being one of the major beneficiaries of next year's expected recovery in IT spending.

Some of Friday's concerns regarding heightened alerts to terrorism did come to fruition after this weekend's suicide bombing in Saudi Arabia.

Despite the heightened geopolitical unrest, the AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) 208.34 -0.97% and the CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 277.27 -0.75%, which might have benefited from such unrest in the Middle East, found similar losses as the major indices.

Pivot Matrix

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart - Daily Interval

Technology stocks look to have lost some of their upside momentum near-term and has the SPX vulnerable back to the 1,035 level. Would be looking for bullish entries there as Stochastics reach oversold levels.

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) Chart - Daily Interval

Dow Industrials (INDU) Chart - Daily Intervals

Looking for INDU support to firm in the 9,650 to 9,700 range. This would be a normal pullback on the INDU's PnF chart, and make for some needed pullback for a bounce back higher for an eventual test of 10,000.

NASDAQ-100 Tracking Stock (QQQ) Chart - Daily Interval

I profiled and took a late bullish trade on Friday at $35.63, with thought we'd see a little bounce back near $36.00 today should Japan's Nikkei-225 trade higher after its country's general election this weekend, and that there would not be any terrorist activities over the weekend.

I was wrong on both counts and was stopped out this morning when the QQQ traded $33.58.

With such tight ranges this week from WEEKLY S2 to WEEKLY R2, the decline from the new WEEKLY Pivots has the bullish side of me looking for entries back lower in the WEEKLY martix to build the upside needed for the higher levels of bullish %.

Jeff Bailey

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