THE BOTTOM LINE:
The Nasdaq is well into new high ground and the S&P 500 has eked out new high Closes. Yet to follow is the big cap S&P 100 and the Dow; the small cap Russell seriously lags.
I have nothing overarching to say this week, except that we're seeing low volume numbers and that may be a damper on the main-stream economic stocks (even slowing tech a bit) as we head into the last week of our normal 'summer'. Some last beach, lake or mountain time!
The trend picture, support and resistance and price objectives are seen in my index commentaries below.
MAJOR STOCK INDEX TECHNICAL COMMENTARIES
S&P 500 (SPX) DAILY CHART:
The S&P 500 (SPX) Index is bullish and SPX has gone to new high Closes but not yet decisively so. There may be a struggle for SPX to stay at new highs in the coming week. 2000 is pivotal overhead resistance, with some further resistance at the upper end of SPX's uptrend channel. They may not be a serious challenge to 2000 until after Labor day but I see 2000 in our S&P future.
Support is at 1960, extending to 1940. I anticipate the 21-day moving average acting as support on pullbacks of that degree.
Volatility has fallen significantly in the past two week rally and VIX is again under 12, which has sometimes marked at least a temporary top.
Bullishness in terms of my 'sentiment' indicator is climbing as is the RSI but are not quite yet in high-level extremes. Look for higher levels over the next couple of weeks.
S&P 100 (OEX) INDEX; DAILY CHART
The S&P 100 (OEX) has stalled at its prior peak, which isn't surprising given the relatively low volumes. Below average volume or not, the rally has been significant since OEX's rebound from its up trendline.
Pivotal near resistance is seen at the prior top around 886, extending to 890. Pivotal intermediate resistance is seen at 900, a milestone number.
I look for higher levels over the next couple of weeks but OEX may well pull back some from an overbought condition near-term.
Near support comes in at 875-870 or the area of the 21-day average, with support then extending to 864-860. I don't anticipate that much of a dip but that's how support looks chart wise.
THE DOW 30 (INDU) AVERAGE; DAILY CHART:
The Dow 30 Average (INDU) has gotten over 17000 so far which is bullish and a key number. I didn't highlight it on the chart but the prior cluster of intraday highs is an important resistance we should focus in on above 17060, in the 17140 area. Resistance then extends to 17200.
Near support is at 16900, then at 16800.
Bullish, rebounding or INDU stocks that are holding support are seen with AXP, BA, CVX, DD, DIS, GS, HD (yeah), INTC, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, PG, TRV, UNH, and V.
Based on what I see in the various charts, INDU looks to be capable of going to new highs or current move and then to the 17200 area. Stay tuned!
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (COMP) INDEX; DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) is bullish in its chart pattern as COMP has gone to and stayed above, it prior 4485 peak. Look for support in fact at what was resistance in this area. Next lower support is at 4400. I don't current anticipate this area being retested.
Next resistance is projected in the 4575 area, extending to the 4650 area at the top end of COMP's uptrend channel.
COMP is nearing the lower end of its 'typical overbought zone in terms of the 13-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) but that won't necessarily stop some further upside progress. Over time, 4800 appears on weekly charts (not shown) as a key resistance, followed by 5000 looking out even further.
Everyone is bullish on tech it seems but this doesn't tell us much about when the current run will end. That seems more in the hands of the Fed.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX); DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart is bullish. Lower volumes have contributed to less of a charge higher compared to the rally up to 4000, a big milestone number.
I project next possible resistance coming in around 4070, extending to 4115. This area (4070-4115) is at the top end of NDX's weekly chart uptrend channel currently.
On the daily chart here you can eyeball NDX's current uptrend slope. Prices in the 4100 area gets us back to the prior June-July rate of gain. We'll see if September-October brings another acceleration higher. The March 2000 highs suggest resistance around 4400; there was even a spike up to the 4800 area in March of that year. 2014 could bring a retest of 4400. Stay tuned!
Near support is at prior resistance in the 4000 area, with support extending to 3950.
Low volatility is back as seen with the VXN at the bottom of the chart, which sometimes has meant a slowing of a steep rate of gain or occurred around the time of a correction. It's not an exact correlation by any means. Nor is the RSI extreme a sign that NDX will see a pullback but a sideways to lower pause does happen often enough that 'throws off' such an extreme.
NASDAQ 100 TRACKING STOCK (QQQ); DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq 100 tracking stock (QQQ) is bullish but the Q's are nearing the upper end of its broad uptrend channel, which may SLOW the rate of gain higher in September. Key resistance is at 100, extending to 100.6
Near support is highlighted at 97.5, extending to the area of the 21-day moving average intersecting currently at 96.5
Speaking of low late-summer volumes, daily trading activity has been below average on this last spurt higher. On Balance Volume (OBV) still pointed strongly higher. Look for a key resistance test at 100, a milestone number.
RUSSELL 2000 (RUT); DAILY CHART:
The Russell 2000 (RUT) chart is mixed and the latest advance has slowed in the area of the 50-day moving average. Next resistance in RUT comes in at 1170-1180. Technical/chart support is highlighted at 1140, extending to 1130.
RUT has now retraced half, 50% of its prior downswing. 1170 represents a 62 Fibonacci retracement and is about as high as I see RUT going near-term, if that. A 50 per cent retracement is often about as much as we see in a weak stock or in this case, weak index.
GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!