THE BOTTOM LINE:
It's tough to figure out trend targets when the 'trend' is held hostage by something so external to earnings and the current economic direction in the U.S. Tempting to hibernate until Europe sorts out things and the U.S. reacts to a FINAL outcome or resolution.
Everything I have to say on the major indexes is individualized below.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX):
Buy the VIX index in the 12 area, exit at 15.5-16 is still my guidelines for speculative or hedging. The trading range market of the past 3-4 months has not generated VIX readings above 16, at least not for long.
MAJOR STOCK INDEX TECHNICAL COMMENTARIES
S&P 500 (SPX) DAILY CHART:
The S&P 500 (SPX) trend momentum is down as the Index continues to trade below its 21-day moving average. Near resistance is in the 2110 area, extending to 2120. A move above 2120-2125 that continues or holds up suggests a possible retest of the prior recent top. 2160 is major resistance, extending to 2200 over time.
Near technical support, in the area of SPX's up trendline is highlighted in the 2080 area, extending to 2070-2067. Next support is 2060, with major support at 2040.
For bullish potential to continue to be seen, best if 2080 isn't pierced.
The last 'oversold' RSI reading did lead to a good-sized rebound but there was not sustained follow through above SPX's down trendline. Bullish sentiment, absent a Greek/EU crackup, registered a bullish 1-day 'extreme' this past week on the mid-week rally. Sure enough, traders were TOO optimistic.
I have fond memories of Greece and my Greek friends but they are between a rock and hard place. I won't bet on Index swings that are so hostage to the outcome of the tough situation they're in.
S&P 100 (OEX) INDEX; DAILY CHART
The S&P 100 (OEX) is similar to SPX in that piercing its bullish support trendline would be bearish if sustained. Near trendline support comes in at 915; next support is then anticipated around 910. 900-895 continues to be major technical support.
As usual, trade above or below the 21-day moving average is one technical measure of the near-term trend. A Close above 930 is bullish with next resistance at 935, then at the prior highs in the 938 area. Major resistance in OEX comes in around 950.
I would consider OEX call purchases in the 900 area if seen, such as on a worst-case Euro outcome. Such a panic sell off could be short-lived in my estimation. You have to be 'ready' in such situations to buy into likely support, with an exit point of 893 or a Close below 895.
THE DOW 30 INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (INDU); DAILY CHART:
The Dow 30 (INDU) chart looks like the S&P in the lack of upside follow through on this past week's strong mid-week rebound, etc. Dow stocks are few that are in CURRENT strong bullish trends; e.g., CSCO, DIS, GS, JPM, NKE, AAPL, UNH and V.
Resistance that must be overcome to continue some bullish momentum is seen at 18100, then (next) at 18200.
INDU trendline support comes in around 17770, extending to 17715, with next lower support highlighted at 17650.
On a risk to reward basis buying Dow Index calls in the 177.5-176.5 zone looks to have a favorable risk to reward outlook, assuming a stop or exit at 176.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (COMP) INDEX; DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) is bullish to mixed in its pattern. Bullish in that buying recently developed AT trendline support; 'mixed' in that COMP remains in a sideways trend plus or minus 50 points above/below 5050.
Immediate/near support is highlighted at 5050, then at 5000, extending to the 4950 area.
The 5100 level appears as a multiweek line of resistance that has been keeping a lid on COMP. Call it 5100-5120 resistance.
A Close above 5100 that led to a sustained rally, or at least where 5100 'becomes' sustained support, would be a bullish development. Next resistance then would be suggested at 5150 with fairly major resistance in the 5200 area.
It appears that whenever traders go on call buying sprees suggested by a spike higher in my bullish sentiment indicator, it's followed by dashed hopes for higher prices. The poor techno bulls, they are so ready to see the bull market resume only to get their hopes dashed by those crazy Europeans! Kidding, but sort of true too!
NASDAQ 100 (NDX); DAILY CHART:
The big cap Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is mixed in its pattern. The bullish aspect is that NDX continues in an overall uptrend. The pattern is mixed in that there's also been a sideways drift also seen in the broad Composite. 4400 looks like must-hold support for the bulls, although intraday dips might be seen to 4350 and that could offer bottoming potential.
Near support is highlighted at 4450, with next support in the 4400 area as already noted. A sustained move above the 21-day moving average would be a bullish development.
Near resistance is seen at 4500, extending to 4550; 4550-4560 is pivotal technical resistance. If there was a breakout to new highs, next resistance looks like 4600, extending to 4650 over time.
The NASDAQ 100 ETF STOCK (QQQ); DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq 100 tracking stock (QQQ) remains in an uptrend but this ETF keeps getting knocked down to its up trendline. Except for an intraday dip here and there, QQQ remains in a pattern of mostly higher (downswing) lows.
There is NOT yet a converse pattern of higher rally highs as there has been a lid on the stock or a buyers retreat on QQQ rallies to the 111 area.
To suggest renewed upside momentum, look for a sustained move above the 21-day moving average or above 110. Next up for the bulls would be to push QQQ above 111 without much retreat from there; resistance, once overcome, 'becoming a next support. Stay tuned on that!
It seems prudent to stay away from new positions until Greece is bailed out or not. It's a situation where the 2015 earnings trend isn't exactly clear yet in U.S. stocks and this EU/Greece conundrum 'rules' the Market in the meantime. I'm not keen to be ruled by such circumstances. I favor the long side on a good-sized dip but how much of a dip is the question on a further panic related to overseas events.
RUSSELL 2000 (RUT); DAILY CHART:
The Russell 2000 (RUT) looks ready to challenge or re-test its prior top in the 1275-1278 area. I've noted near resistance at 1270, then at 1278-1280 which likely extends to 1287-1290 in the coming 1-2 weeks.
RUT is following Nasdaq pretty closely so it seems RUT goes to new highs if Nasdaq does the same, especially the Composite.
Near support looks like 1255-1250, then at 1240. A Close below the 21-day moving average is mildly bearish. Major bearish is a Close below 1240, not reversed (back to the upside) the next day.
GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!