The market officially dipped into bear market territory with the S&P down -21.2% intraday at 1,074 but a large buy program hit the market at 3:15 to force a major short squeeze and a +49 point rebound in the S&P for an outside reversal day.
Traders were shocked by the magnitude of the rebound that began at 3:15. The Dow had declined to 10,430 and was threatening the lows of the day at 10,404 when the buy program hit. The Dow rebounded to 10,808 at the close for a +404 point rebound in only 45 minutes. What do we do now?
That was the question James and I were pondering right after the close. Does this signal the start of a lasting rebound or just a bear market bounce? Do we go long or sell the rally? This is the kind of day that causes indigestion for traders. Futures and commodities are still rising in after hours and I am sure there are shorts that were caught off guard and are still short. That would suggest a continued rally at the open on Wednesday but I doubt it will continue much higher. Even if the bounce is going to stick there should be periods of profit taking. Too many people still have bearish views of the future.
The news from Europe early in the day was not good. The decision on the next payment to Greece has been delayed and the date of the payment has been delayed to mid November. That is a month later than the deadline for a Greek default that was previously discussed. Greece said it could last to mid November with the cash on hand without a default. That was contrary to its desperate warning last week that it would default if the money was not received by mid October. Greece has been known to stretch the truth in the past and it appears they were trying to create some urgency to get the payment sooner rather than later. When the euro zone ministers said they were going to delay to mid November it caused a panic in the market on Monday but after Greece said "no problem" the tensions eased.
One reason given for the afternoon rally was a story in the Financial Times about an European plan to recapitalize their banks. EU Ministers said details of the plan were still under discussion but they concluded they had not done enough convince financial markets that Europe's banks could withstand the debt crisis. Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs told FT "There is an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, coordinated approach in Europe although many individual actions are done in the member states. There is a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on. Capital positions of European banks must be reinforced to provide additional safety margins and reduce uncertainty. This should be regarded as an integral part of the EU's comprehensive strategy to restore confidence and overcome the crisis."
German finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, said Berlin could reactivate the support mechanisms put in place in 2008 to recapitalize banks. The program had expired but it could be reactivated to recapitalize German banks.
A troubled French-Belgium lender, Dexia, has been struggling to get enough cash to run its day to day business after a run on the bank on worries over its European exposure. Today Dexia announced it was going to create a bad bank to hold 180 billion euros of problem loans and sovereign debt. The bank would be backed by the French and Belgium governments. The bank currently owns E3.5 billion in Greek debt and E15 billion in Italian debt plus an unknown quantity of Spanish debt. By spinning off the problem assets with the help of France and Belgium governments the short term funding crisis should end.
The sudden flurry of recapitalization actions and proposed actions suggests the EU has finally realized they need to stop the bleeding and put a fence around their banks before taking drastic action on Greece. This is the right thing to do. Fix the banks, insure adequate funding for the coming debt restructuring before it happens then when Greek defaults it won't be an earth shaking event.
Several analysts believe this flurry is banking news was responsible for the rally. That could easily have been the case because the worry over the banks has been the biggest challenge to the markets. At our extreme oversold levels it would not have taken much of a spark to cause some serious short covering and some stock chasing. I wrote on Sunday that we would likely have a strong short covering rally in the days ahead. Having the S&P drop into bear market territory and make new lows from just before the comments came out just increased the oversold conditions. The spring was compressed about as far as it would go.
The U.S. economics don't justify a continued bear market. In the U.S. the banking sector closed at a new post recession low with a decline of nearly -5% on Monday. The S&P declined sharply despite good economic news in the USA. The ISM for September rose unexpectedly to 51.6 from 50.6 and the highest level since June. Analysts were expecting a decline.
The vehicle sales for September rose sharply to an annual rate of 13.1 million units compared to the August rate of 12.1 million. September was the strongest vehicle sales since April. Sales of SUVs and pickups were especially strong. Dealers reported pent up demand with expectations for continued strong sales through year-end.
Construction Spending for August rose unexpectedly by +1.4% compared to a -1.3% decline in July. Analysts were expecting another decline. Overall spending rose +0.9% over its 2010 level and the first time in three years it has been positive year over year.
There were no material economic reports on Tuesday.
The U.S. is NOT heading into a recession unless conditions worsen appreciably. Europe is going to get resolved. The global equity markets are going to rally when Europe is resolved and it finally appears the EU is headed in the right direction. This could provide further relief to the oversold conditions.
Unfortunately we still have some potential tape bombs on the calendar for this week. The ADP Employment report on Wednesday could be a challenge but the real problem could be the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. I have heard estimates now from -75,000 jobs to +125,000. Obviously a number close to either of those extremes would be a shock to the market and we could see a major move.
With the recent events in Europe those dates I listed in the weekend calendar no longer apply.
Bernanke's testimony today was a nonevent. There was an initial bounce when he said the Fed stood ready to increase monetary stimulus if needed but no new facts or plans were mentioned. It was a boring Q&A and the markets began selling off again once it was over.
There was a lot of stock news today. Apple (AAPL) was probably the most discussed after they failed to announce the iPhone 5. Instead they announced the iPhone 4S, which had a processor that was seven times faster than the old one. They also unveiled a voice operated personal assistant with multiple languages but Spanish was not one of them. The phone has a beefed up camera and will run the new iOS 5, which will be available on Oct 12th. The presentation was criticized by attendees with CEO Cook leading the show. Steve Jobs did not appear. Apple shares declined nearly $30 off its intraday highs post announcement but recovered to close nearly flat but still in negative territory.
Research in Motion (RIMM) was very volatile after rumors circulated the company had hired an investment banker to advise on strategic options. RIMM declined to comment on the speculation. RIMM shares rose last week on speculation Carl Icahn was interested in the company. Shares were up sharply at the open but declined to hit new lows after they declined comment on the rumor. Another headline from the 4S announcement quoted Apple CEO Tim Cook as saying 93% of the Fortune 500 were testing the iPhone to replace the BlackBerry.
Sprint Nextel (S) shares were hammered at the open after the company said it would buy $20 billion in iPhones over the next four years. Sprint has been shut out of the iPhone frenzy with AT&T and Verizon getting the initial deals. Shareholders of Sprint were shocked at the price of entry into the iPhone market. Sprint said it would not make any money until 2014 because they would sell them at a loss of $500 per phone, like other carriers, in hopes of making up the loss on data sales, texting and long distance. Sprint will buy 30.5 million iPhones.
Shares of Acme Packet (APKT) declined from $42 at the close to $27 in after hours when they gave a disappointing outlook for Q3. Revenue is now expected to be $70 million, down from $79.7 million. Earnings are now expected to be 20-22 cents compared to prior estimates of 29-cents. The company said it was impacted by a major order at one of its major customers that was delayed into the current quarter. The CEO affirmed full year targets of $315-$320 million and earnings of $1.14-$1.18. The market is very nervous and warnings like this are met with instant reaction. However, before the close of afterhours trading the stock rebounded to $38.53.
Acme Packet Chart
U.S. banks recovered strongly in the last few minutes of trading. Hedge funds and institutions have not been able to short European banks to hedge against European holdings so they have been shorting U.S. banks. That backfired on them today when the EU news broke about possible recapitalization. JP Morgan (JPM) rebounded +10% intraday to close up 6%. After falling -7% at the open Morgan Stanley (MS) rebounded to close up +12% at $13.85. Morgan Stanley again reiterated it had no exposure to Greece. The KBW Bank Index ($BKX) rallied +4.5%.
KBW Banking Index Chart
Alamai Technology (AKAM) rallied +10% after a tout sheet gave them a spin and shorts were caught off guard. There was no other news on AKAM but the shorts were crushed anyway.
Yahoo (YHOO) rallied again after Goldman Sachs said the company was sending out financial information to interested parties. One of those parties is Alibaba CEO Jack Ma but apparently he is only interested in the Asian side of the business. Several private equity firms are interested in partnering with Ma in an acquisition in hopes of getting control of the U.S. business. Microsoft is also rumored to be receiving financial data.
Yum Brands (YUM) reported earnings after the close of 83-cents and in line with analyst estimates. Investors were interested in the China metrics on worries a slowdown in China could be underway. Yum makes more than 40% of its profit from China. Same store sales in China increased +19% in Q3 compared to +18% in Q2 and +12% estimates by the street. That does not appear to be slowing to me but those numbers were for the three months prior to August 31st. Some believe China declined significantly in September. Yum also said it raised prices in China at the end of the quarter in order to offset higher costs. Yum has 4,200 stores in China, mostly KFC outlets. Colonel Sanders would be proud! Yum shares lost $1 after the earnings.
The S&P dipped to 1074 intraday for a decline from the April highs of -21.2%. This was below material support but still well above numbers being discussed by technicians at 1065 and 1050. There was really no technical reason for the rebound. This was clearly a news event that triggered buy programs and a strong short covering rally. Futures after the close have been flat.
The S&P closed just over prior support at 1120 and despite the rebound this is still a lower low and lower high. One rebound does not make a rally. It will take a lot more news from Europe to make this rally stick. The next support target is 1050 if the rebound fails.
S&P Chart - 90 Min
S&P Chart - Daily
The Dow may have rebounded more than 400 points intraday but it was all in the last 45 minutes and the rest of the day was very negative. The rebound was clearly news driven short covering with a couple buy programs triggered as well. That is not enough to produce a lasting rally and there is a good chance we are going to retest the lows.
The interim support lows from today are not 10,440 with the intraday resistance at 10,600. If the Dow declines back below that 10,600 it could get ugly very quickly. A move back under 10,600 would suggest a target low of 10,000. I would expect the buyers to come roaring back if we get anywhere close to that level.
The Nasdaq was the most bullish index and it traded in positive territory for most of the day even when the Dow was down triple digits. The morning low was 2300 and the afternoon low was 2300. That is not a specific support level other than round number psychological support plus a little congestion from August 2010.
Tech stocks are normally bullish in Q4 so it is no surprise to see traders bargain hunting after the big decline last week. The market recovered without support from Apple although Apple did close well off its lows. GOOG, NFLX and FFIV were winners but Amazon is still struggling with a sell the news cycle post tablet.
Nasdaq Chart - 3 Min
Nasdaq Chart - Daily
The Russell exploded higher with a rebound of nearly 50 points! However, it came to a dead stop at prior support at 650. The strong Russell rebound was simply evidence of how heavily the small caps were shorted. I don't see this as any indication of a change in fund manager sentiment. This was just short covering.
Russell Chart - 120 Min
Russell Chart - Weekly
One day does not make a trend. We are still at the mercy of whatever headline appears on the European front. Late this afternoon Moody's downgraded Italy by a full three notches to A2 from Aa2. They left the outlook at negative. This was overshadowed by the news article from the Financial Times but it is still evidence there are significant problems left to work through. We never know when the next headline will knock us back down again.
If investors actually thought through the European problem they would not be afraid. Based on the 10Q reports for the top five U.S. banks there is a total of $54 billion of exposure to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Those same five banks have over $713 billion in capital. It is not an end of the world as we know it scenario.
For Wednesday I don't have any confidence we will move higher. I think the odds are higher we could see a decline but that depends on Europe and the ADP report. A positive ADP report could increase expectations for the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Likewise a weak ADP could send traders back to the sidelines to avoid the Friday payroll risk.
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