Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 01/05/1999

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The Option Investor Newsletter         Tuesday  1-5-98  
Copyright 1998, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings.
******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP
******************************************************************
        12-29-98         High     Low     Volume   Advances Decline
DOW     9311.20 +126.93 9338.74  9182.98  779,040k  1,698   1,352
Nasdaq  2251.20 + 43.20 2251.77  2206.49  951,227k  2,299   1,797 
S&P-100  615.38 + 10.45  616.24   604.92   Totals   3,997   3,149
S&P-500 1244.78 + 16.68 1246.11  1228.10            55.9%   44.1%
$RUT     422.09 +   .83  422.62   420.54
$TRAN   3192.38 + 74.73 3200.17  3116.61
VIX       23.53 -  2.17   25.57    23.46
Put/Call Ratio      .48
******************************************************************

This time it stuck !


After the aborted rally fizzled on Monday analysts were crossing
their fingers as the Dow crossed +100 today. Fortunately the numbers
stuck and we closed over 9300 again. The Nasdaq set another new high
at 2251. 

All the averages were positive today as the transportation sector
soared over 3200 for the first time since July. The sector was 
upgraded today on continued strong bookings and low fuel costs.
An oil minister from Kuwait speculated that we could see $5 a bbl
oil in the near future. Lower costs, higher traffic, sounds good
to us. The confirmation by the transportation average of the Dow
rally should give Dow technicians something to cheer about. 
Personally I think it is a coincidence but who am I to knock fate.

If you were a tech stock or could spell tech stock then you got a
nice bump in stock price today. The leaders were MSFT +5.50 (new
high) and a new price target by Lehman of $185, SUNW +2.50, IBM 
+6.63 (new high). The same went for Internets with the exception 
of AOL. AMZN soared another +6.19 (+18.57 pre-split), CMGI, on a 
nice split run added +6.22 and BRCM +6.38.

AOL, got your attention? The Internet blue chip that was expected
to soar again on Monday after that 20 million block traded at the
close last Thursday, did not. The rumor making the rounds (CNBC)
is that Vangard and Fidelity, along with many other index funds,
have not bought AOL yet. Vangard is rumored to only bought 30% of
their needed shares. The reason, the $40 spike in the last two weeks.
They are under no legal requirement to add AOL on any given day.
The object of the fund is to mirror the S&P "OR" better. They feel
they can possibly buy cheaper if they wait several weeks until the
feeding frenzy is over. AOL traded 13 million shares today and only
dropped -1.88. They also have to sell some shares of other stocks
that were dropped from the S&P as well as reweight their remaining
S&P stocks. For some of these funds this represents a major 
restructuring. They do not want to "dump" their existing holdings
just to add AOL at a high price. If you owned these funds you would
want them to do exactly what they are doing. Maximize your returns.
The end result - we think AOL will still go up and announce a split
with earnings, if not before. My email is full of rumors that it
will be this week but the rumors could be from people holding AOL
at last weeks prices.

The telecoms also exploded on the news that Vodaphone is trying to
outbid Bell Atlantic for Airtouch. ATI added +7.13 to 75.38 and could
go higher if a bidding war does erupt. Vodaphone's bid is rumored
to be in the $95 range, all stock. NOKA added +6.31 and WCOM +5.06.

Semiconductor stocks were upgraded today on news that the PC rally
is gaining speed. You could set your clocks by it. We added two
semi stocks as puts on Sunday. MU & TXN. Can you say "quick drop"?

Cash is still flowing into markets and managers are putting the
money to work. Investors are using year end bonuses and new 401K
and IRA contributions to get a head start on the 1999 marrket.
The tech heavy advance pushed the Nasdaq to it's seventh record
close in ten sessions.

Twenty four of the Dow 30 stocks were up today. Even the depressed
commodity stocks like International Paper. The reason given is the
expected rebound of the Asian markets will lead to increased buying
this summer. The Dow outpaced the Russell today as the Russell only
added +.83. After the blue chip rest yesterday they came back in 
style.

Traders should be cautious tomorrow. After a big day today and the
strong volatility yesterday, we still do not have a direction.
Actually we are only about 5 points away from our close last Tuesday.
We traded for a week and gained nothing. I do think we will continue
up but the market will be unsteady after today's big gains and can
swing either way. The S&P futures were down slightly tonight but are
trending up at 9:PM.


Good Luck


Jim Brown
Editor




*******************************************************
Market Posture
*******************************************************
As of Market Close ­ Tuesday, January 5, 1999 

               Major Support
Broad Market     /Resistance Last Posture/Since Alert
****************************************************************

DOW Industrials 8,600 9,400  9,311 Neutral 11.24 
SPX S&P 500     1,180 1,240  1,245 Neutral 12.30 
OEX S&P 100       580   615    615 Neutral 12.30 
RUT Russell 2000  385   405    422 BULLISH 12.24 

NDX NASD 100    1,640 1,740  1,903 BULLISH 12.18 
MSH High Tech     770   790    911 BULLISH 12.18 

               Major Support
Technology      /Resistance  Last Posture/Since Alert
****************************************************************
XCI Hardware      740    815   833 BULLISH 1.05 * 
CWX Software      560    615   633 BULLISH 12.29 
SOX Semiconductor 325    360   377 BULLISH 1.05 * 
NWX Networking    360    400   433 BULLISH 1.05 * 
INX Internet      300    340   406 Neutral 12.29 

               Major Support
Financial       /Resistance  Last Posture/Since Alert
****************************************************************
BIX Banking       610    680   675 Neutral 12.17 
XBD Brokerage     415    540   582 BULLISH 12.24 
IUX Insurance     555    620   607 Neutral 12.17 

               Major Support
Other           /Resistance  Last Posture/Since Alert
****************************************************************
RLX Retail        770    780   841 BULLISH 12.18 
DRG Drug          730    765   784 BULLISH 12.29 
HCX Healthcare    730    760   767 BULLISH 12.29 
XAL Airline       270    300   318 BULLISH 1.05 * 
OIX Oil & Gas     250    260   248 BEARISH 12.03 



Posture Alert

After advancing into record territory and holding, we have
turned Bullish across select industry sectors including
technology the Airlines. We remain Neutral across the broad
market indices until the S&P 100 and 500 can take out and
hold above its previous high.

A detailed description of our Market Posture and its
applications can be found at:

www.OptionInvestor.com/marketposture


******************************************************************
Market Sentiment ­ By Pinnacle Capital Advisors
****************************************************************** 
Tuesday, January 5, 1999


Showdown at Prior Highs

From a market sentiment perspective, not much has changed
since this past weekend. Several of our trusted indicators
are flashing Bearish overtones, particularly while the
broader market gets ready to re-test prior highs.

Any questions regarding market sentiment can be directed at:
pinnacle@OptionInvestor.com


Market Sentiment at a Glance
******************************************************************** 
Friday Tues Thurs 
Indicator (12/31) (1/5) (1/7) Alert
********************************************************************

Pinnacle Index (OEX): 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Overhead Resistance (610-625) 5.1 4.9 *
Underlying Support  (585-600) 1.6 1.7


Put/Call Ratio (OEX):
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CBOE P/C Ratio 1.1 1.1


Peak Open Interest (OEX):
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Puts      580 575
Calls     580 620
P/C Ratio 1.0 1.0


Market Volatility Index (VIX): 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CBOE VIX  25.3 25.2


Investors Intelligence:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Bullish 56.4% 57.1% * 
Bearish 32.5% 30.3%




The Power of Expectation Analysis

It has often been said that the crowd is right during the
market trends but wrong at both ends. Measuring and
evaluating the sentiment of the crowd, therefore, can give
savvy option traders a decided edge.


Pinnacle Index
-----------------------------------------------------------------
OEX                   Friday Tues Thurs
Benchmark            (12/31) (1/5) (1/7)
-----------------------------------------------------------------

                    (620-625) 14.6 14.1
                    (610-615)  3.2  2.9
Overhead Resistance (610-625)  5.1  4.9

OEX Close 604.0 615.4

Underlying Support (585-600) 1.6 1.7
(595-600) 1.8 1.6
(585-590) 1.5 1.7



Average ratings: 
Resistance levels 2.0 / Support .5

What the Pinnacle Index is telling us:
Overhead sentiment resistance is moderate at the OEX 610/625
level while the underlying support is moderate.


Put/Call Ratio 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Friday Tues Thurs
Strike/Contracts     (12/31) (1/5) (1/7) 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CBOE Total P/C Ratio   .52    .51
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio  .40    .40
OEX P/C Ratio         1.07   1.14



Peak Open Interest (OEX)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Friday Tuesday Thurs
Strike/Contracts   (12/31)        (1/5) (1/7)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Puts              580 / 8,671   575 / 9,455
Calls             580 / 8,668   620 / 9,858
Put/Call Ratio      1.00            .96




Please view this in COURIER 10 font for alignment
*****************************************************
RESULTS THIS WEEK

Index	Last	Mon	Tue	Week		
Dow	9311	2.8	126.9	129.8		
Nasdq	2251	15.4	43.2	58.6		
$OEX	615	0.9	10.5	11.4		
$SPX	1245	-1.1	16.7	15.6		
$RUT	422	-0.7	0.8	0.1		
$TRAN	3192	-31.7	74.7	43.1		
$VIX	23.53	0.29	-2.17			
						
Stock	Last	Mon	Tue	Week		
				 		
AMZN	124.5	33.69	6.19	39.88	Pre-split = +18.57 today	
CMGI	120.7	8.00	6.22	14.22	Great split run	
NOK/A	134.5	7.75	6.31	14.06	Split candidate	
BRCM	133.3	6.13	6.38	12.51	Just a good run	
MSFT	146.5	2.31	5.50	7.81	Split candidate	
SUNW	92.56	4.44	2.50	6.94	Split candidate	
EMC	91.13	2.00	4.13	6.13	Split candidate	
IBM	189.6	-1.38	6.63	5.25	Split candidate	
LU	114.1	4.25	-0.06	4.19	Split candidate	
CSCO	96.94	2.50	1.63	4.13	Split candidate	
T	79.50	2.13	1.63	3.76	Split candidate	
WCOM	74.94	-1.88	5.06	3.18	Split candidate	
ATI	75.38	-4.19	7.13	2.94	Takeover candidate	
TWX	63.38	-0.50	1.81	1.31		
JBL	75.00	-1.63	2.13	0.50	Upgraded	
WMT	81.25	-0.81	0.63	-0.18	Split candidate	
LOW	50.88	-0.38	0.06	-0.32		
EDS	49.81	-0.81	0.44	-0.37		
KSS	61.00	-0.19	-0.25	-0.44		
SCI	56.44	-3.31	2.00	-1.31		
MYG	60.50	-1.31	-0.44	-1.75	It deserves a rest	
LXK	98.31	-2.25	0.06	-2.19		
SWY	58.63	-0.13	-2.19	-2.32		
HD	58.38	-2.38	-0.44	-2.82		
LGTO	62.88	-2.94	-0.13	-3.07		
AGPH	55.63	-0.25	-2.88	-3.13	Buying opportunity?	
SLR	87.00	-0.94	-5.00	-5.94	Profit taking	
GDT	103.9	-5.63	-0.50	-6.13	Profit taking	
AOL	146.9	-6.31	-1.88	-8.19	Waiting for index buyers	
						
Puts						
						
LLY	85.81	-2.88	-0.19	-3.07		
BMCS	42.56	0.31	-2.31	-2.00		
RI	19.56	-0.75	-0.94	-1.69		
NWK	10.50	0.19	0.06	0.25		
PRMS	9.75	-0.06	0.63	0.57		
HAL	30.38	0.56	0.19	0.75		
MRK	150.8	2.25	1.00	3.25	Dropped	
MU	54.00	-0.63	4.06	3.43	Upgraded - dropped	
TXN	89.06	1.50	1.94	3.44	Sector upgraded - dropped	


PICKS WE DROPPED
****************
When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time. 
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


CALLS:
******

None



PICK NEWS - CALLS
*******************************************************
NOKA $134.50 +6.31(+14.06) Just awesome! Up $14.06 in only 2 days
of trading and closing at a new high that is more than 9.00 above
its recently set all-time high of 125.44. As the New Year
approached, investors became cautious on the ADRs, unsure of how
the financial world would react to the new Euro currency, and
Nokia dropped a few dollars. Caution evaporated after the First,
and the ADRs quickly gained lost ground. In addition, Nokia really
benefited from the proposed deal between Airtouch and Bell
Atlantic, and then again from the proposed deal between Airtouch
and Vodaphone. The competing bids for ATI call attention to the
growing wireless communications market and the obvious resulting
cellular phone sales. Nokia is the #1 cell phone maker in the
world and is increasing manufacturing capacity just to keep up
with demand. The stock is on fire with good fundamentals, great
momentum, and the strong possibility of a split.

BRCM $133.25 +6.38(+12.50) Broadcom roared out of the New Year's 
gate with a $12.50 two-day gain! This high-speed broadband 
communications circuit maker has announced yet another new 
product: a single chip that integrates eight 10/100BASE-T 
transceivers. This device will lower both cost and power 
consumption while increasing the port density of Fast Ethernet 
switches. BRCM is an internet semi-conductor stock that will move 
with either or both sectors, and it sure is moving now!

TWX $63.38 +1.81(+1.32) Time Warner set a new intra-day high today 
of $63.94 as well as a new closing high. Hollywood has just set 
another record holiday box office for New Year's week and TWX's 
Warner Brothers has two films grossing in the top ten. The stock 
was downgraded on valuation Monday be Richard Bilotti, of Morgan 
Stanley Dean Witter from "outperform" to "strong buy", but it 
didn't seem to faze investors. Perhaps it was all the positive 
things the analyst had to say while issuing the downgrade. He 
upped his 12-month price target to $66 and sees the stock reaching 
$80-$82 by 2001. He believes TWX can grow its cash flow by 14-16% 
per year through 2003. Fourth quarter revenues and cash flow look 
good, and the company's WB network, who's teen shows had a 19% 
ratings improvement this season, should break even by 2001. Twx 
still shows good momentum.

WMT $81.25 +.63(-.19) In the story of the Tortoise and the Hare, 
Wal-Mart would surely be the hare. Slow, but sure and steady. With 
a down day here and there, the overall trend with the King of 
retailers is always up, and this is a stock you can play and still 
sleep at night. Down .19 for the first two days of the year, WMT 
will likely move up to test its December high of 82.75. Analysts 
expect decent retail sales for December. BT Alex Brown thinks same 
store sales for the industry will increase by 5%, with stores like 
Wal-Mart skewing the numbers higher. Steve Harmon, of 
Internet.com, thinks Wal-Mart needs to acquire internet retailers 
or it will eventually lose market share. Meanwhile, WMT is duking 
it out in court with Amazon.com, claiming key former employees who 
now work for Amazon.com are divulging information about WMT's 
coveted data systems. Wal-Mart is a strong stock and we are hoping 
for a split when the stock moves up a few more points.

GDT $103.88 -.50(-6.12) There is no real news to explain the 
continued drop in Guidant's price, other than plain and simple 
profit-taking. At its high of $113.00 in December, GDT was up over 
40% from its October low. When investors see a down turn in a 
stock that they have watched rise so much, they sometimes sell to 
lock in their profit. We had been watching this stock for a while, 
looking for a dip so we could recommend it. After the split 
announcement, the pullback during the last week of the year looked 
like all we would get. However, the sell-off has continued into 
the new year. Guidant is splitting on Jan. 27th, and the stock 
should turn around and give us a pre-split run. Be patient and 
wait for strong upward movement before initiating any new plays.

SLR - $87.00 -5.00(-5.94) SLR has run into some strong profit
taking. Dropping $5 on an extremely strong day is discouraging
at best. We are keeping SLR because there is a shareholding 
meeting coming up on January 12th to vote on doubling the amount
of authorized shares. We feel there is a good chance a split 
could be announced after this meeting. SLR is near it's 10-dma of 
$86.00. SLR has only had a few times that it has closed below this
moving average since it's run. If SLR closes two consecutive days
below this average, we could see a longer-term reversal. Watch for
a bounce off the 10-dma before initiating new plays.

LXK - $98.31 +.06(-2.19) LXK has continued to consolidate after
nice gains the last couple of weeks. Monday saw LXK lose $2.25,
with a gain of only six cents Tuesday. On Monday, Merrill Lynch
raised their price target on LXK $110. They noted that normally
after such nice gains they tend to downgrade stocks, but stocks
that deal with the booming internet, have a lot of potential still.
LXK is still one of our stock split candidates. Most likely date is
with earnings on the 20th of January. Wait for a confirmation move to
the upside before initiating new plays. 

KSS - $61.00 -.25(-.44) KSS started out on Monday on fire, but 
cooled off with the rest of the market to finish with a 19 cent 
loss. KSS reached an intraday high of almost $63.00. On Tuesday
KSS got as high as $61.75, but faded to close down .25. Retail
sales numbers are due out soon. Playing this news is like playing
earnings, if news is negative the stock will drop. If news is good,
KSS should continue it's nice run. Resistance is at Monday's intra-
day high of $62.94.

LGTO - $62.88 -.13(-3.06) CommVault Systems, Inc. today announced 
a strategic Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) license agree-
ment with LGTO. Through this agreement, CommVault will license and 
integrate LGTO's SmartMedia into its future family of enterprise-
wide storage management products and storage area network (SAN) 
offerings. This news didn't have much effect on LGTO today, though 
LGTO traded as high as $64.38 today, but succumbed to profit taking 
and finished in down slightly. LGTO's 20-dma(57.50)has provided nice 
support. LGTO is a likely to announce a stock split with earnings on
January 14th. 

SCI - $56.44 +2.00(-1.31) SCI has been in a consolidation phase, but
had a nice gain today. SCI opened below it's 10 and 20-dma, but 
worked it's way back and closed right on it's 10-dma. Watch for 
further confirmation of an upmove. SCI really needs to break above 
$58.00 to be in new 52-week high area. An ideal new position would
be established when SCI breaks above $58 on strong volume. 

LOW - $50.88 +.06(-.15) LOW has met with some consolidation the last
few trading days. Netting out with a 15-cent loss. LOW's industry 
traded lower as of late, but LOW has performed a bit better than its
industry in general. We received a letter from one of LOW's employees
saying that sales were good this year and should come out as positive
numbers. Like other retailers, LOW will be affected by the retail 
sales figures. LOW's 10-dma is $50.50. We could see a bump off this
level. LOW did hit and come off of it intraday today.

ATI - $75.38 +7.13(+2.86) ATI is a takeover candidate. This should
explain the large change in value we have seen the last two trading
days. On Monday, there was negative sentiment on Bell Atlantic
buying ATI because of Bell's merger with GTE. On Tuesday Vodaphone
threw their name into the ATI bidding game. Rumor has it that the
bid from VOD is higher than the estimated $45 billion bid from Bell.
Only time will tell which one of these suitors will win, if either.
Because this is such a newsy play, realize that volatility will be
commonplace. Remember that premiums for options are often inflated
in these situations.

LU - $114.13 -.06(+4.19) LU took off on Monday with a gain of $4.25.
LU traded as high as $115.44 on Tuesday, but tailed off to about
even on the day. LU has been selected to provide call center 
technical consulting and integration support for the IRS PRIME 
Integration Services contract awarded last month to the CSC PRIME 
Alliance team. As a member of the CSC team, LU and its NetCare
Professional Services organization will provide technical 
consulting and integration support for IRS call center applications.
LU has earnings this month and a shareholders meeting next month.
A split could be announced at either. LU should see an earnings run
start real soon.   

SWY - Safeway Stores $58.62 (-2.19) (-2.32)
News of Safeway now selling a form of the generic drug Neuromins
(tm) DHA supplement, on the heels of an announcement from Martek 
Biosciences that this supplement suppressed human breast cancer 
metastasis in mice.  Could not prevent some profit taking on an 
issue that has been on an uptrend since the first of the month. 
(Business Wire)  This like MYG is not an exciting play but the 
trend still looks promising.

EMC $91.13 +4.13 (+6.13) As we discussed on Sunday, the basing
pattern that EMC had been in could serve as a launching pad, and EMC
has really taken off this week.  The moves on Monday and Tuesday
have been on above average volume which is good to see.  Probably
what got EMC going was Merrill Lynch raising its price target on EMC
to $100.  EMC has set new 52 week highs on both Monday and today and
closed at the new high today.  There has been no other news on EMC,
but we really don't need any.

HD $58.38 -.44 (-2.81) HD has traded down on both Monday and
Tuesday.  It closed below its 10 day moving average on both days as
well.  During the run that HD has been on since late October, it has
done this twice before.  Once during this run it bounced off of its
21 day moving average which is currently at $56.53.  There are only
so many times that a momentum stock will bounce off of its 10 day
moving average before taking a rest.  There hasn't been any news on
HD, and we are growing cautious on its prospects.  

JBL $75.00 +2.13 (+.50) JBL set a new 52 week high on Monday shortly
after the open and then traded down the rest of Monday, but
recovered today.  In fact today it dipped a little below its 10 day
moving average at the open and then traded higher to close near the
high of the day.  We have been reading a few analysts comments that
are saying that computer equipment companies are currently
overextended on a technical basis and that they expect them to pull
back over the next couple of weeks.  With the recovery today, who
really knows.  Keep an eye on JBL if you are currently playing it.

CMGI - CMGI Inc. $120.72 (+6.22)(+14.22)(+22.00)
Two days of pull backs, and what an opportunity.  Those who 
had the stamina, watched your Stop Losses, and jumped back 
in were rewarded today.  Opening at $112.62, and flirting 
with the $110.00 support, it bounced and took off to finish 
at $120.72. Maybe it was the news from Reuters on Monday, 
that CMGI was increasing its ownership stake to 88% of 
Magnitude Network, a provider of Internet services for radio
broadcaster. Or it could have been the positive movement of 
AMZN after the split, whatever it was.  Well, we'll take it.

IBM  $189.62 +6.62 (+18.06)
IBM opened this morning at $183, had a hick-up and slid to 
a low of $182.81.  Then it didn't even look back as finished 
today at $189.62. On Monday Merrill Lynch & Co. raised the 
price target of IBM to $226.00 after closing on Monday at 183.
After last weeks positive upgrade from Salomon Smith Barney, 
we were looking for someone to raise the bar on the target.

MSFT  $146.50 +$5.50 (+$7.81)  Wow!  Nice pop!  Yesterday MSFT 
traded as high as $145 but closed off its high at $141.  Today 
though, MSFT closed at a new 52 week high and traded as high as 
$148 on 16 million shares.  With fresh cash and new flows of 
401K/IRA/pension money looking for a return, funds and investors 
began buying the large cap, high liquidity issues.  We look for 
the trend to continue since MSFT is on the radar screens and lips 
of lots of investors.  MSFT, now more than ever, is a major split 
candidate since they split like clockwork at $140.  We are 
"pounding the table" for the announcement along with earnings
(anticipated 1-21-99), barring a surprise in the trial.  In the 
news, Justice Department wraps up its testimony with MIT economics 
professor who argued that the only thing explaining "Microsoft's 
behavior is the profit-maximizing conduct of a monopolist."(CBS 
News)(profit maximizing conduct? - investors rejoice!)  Yesterday, 
Intuit's CEO acknowledged under cross-examination that his company 
switched from the Netscape browser when it turned out that 
Microsoft was far more likely to provide what Intuit needed in a 
timely way.(Reuters)  Justice Department's case is looking weak.  
Also, "Microsoft Corp. Tuesday posted 1998 sales of $250 million 
in the online travel service at its Internet portal, a 150 percent 
increase over 1997 sales of $100 million."  And "they unveiled a 
new version of their Internet browser for the Macintosh platform, 
aimed largely at the thousands of neophytes snapping up Apple 
Computer Inc. popular new iMac model."(Reuters)  Definitely a 
major play.

CSCO  $96.94 +$1.63 (+$4.13)  Nice move out of congestion of $94 
range.  By closing at a new all-time high, the stage is set to 
break resistance of $98, then over $100.  Volume has been a bit 
light, but momentum technical chart turned positive yesterday.  We 
look for the momentum to continue, as CSCO is a Morgan Stanley top 
1999 pick, has a price target of $120 from DLJ and though a recent 
splitter, is in split range again - probably 3:2 unless 
shareholders vote to increase the shares outstanding.  Zack's 
expects earnings announcement 2-2-99; we expect the split 
announcement then too.  From Reuters yesterday, 
"Prominent service providers in China already deploying Gigabit 
Switch Routers include China Telecom, Shanghai Online, Guangdong 
CATV and Dalian CATV who will be among the first in the world to 
be able to harness the power of optical internetworking."  Of 
Course, CSCO provides the equipment.  As always, confirm market 
direction before playing.

***** CONTINUED IN SECTION TWO ******

The Option Investor Newsletter         Tuesday  1-5-98  
Copyright 1998, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings.
AOL  $146.56 -$2.25 (-$2.32)  The last 2 days, AOL has been stuck 
with the internet rut on seemingly average volume given their 
addition to the S&P 500.  Here's our take: CNBC reported that 
major index funds including Vanguard and Fidelity completed only 
10-20% of their purchases of AOL, citing that they'll wait until 
the price comes down.  Nice try, these 2 still need to buy 15-20 
million shares to accurately reflect the index.  Plus, rumors are 
still rampant that AOL will announce a split any day.  They report 
earnings 2-9-99 but probably can't wait that long given they too 
have always split in the $120 range.  A split announcement 
stampede and fund buying pressure would set up the equivalent of a 
short squeeze, just adding fuel to the fire in a huge price 
runup..  This seemingly slow period is a good time to buy the dip.  
Be patient and execute your plan.  Another major play in the 
making

WCOM  $74.94 +$5.06 (+$3.19)  Lost $1.94 yesterday, but Wow!  What 
a comeback - another all-time closing high.  Yesterday, WCOM 
suffered a downgrade by CIBC Oppenheimer but recovered today 
thanks to 2 upgrades, One from Smith Barney reiterating a "buy" 
and raising the price target to $100 from $80, and from accumulate 
to "outperform" from Sanford Bernstein.  Smith Barney cites, "We 
believe WCOM with top-line growth of 16-17 percent from 1999 
through 2004 and EPS growth of 28 percent from 1999-2004 is 
generally growing faster than its S&P 500 peers."  We think more 
importantly, index funds are buying now since WCOM was added to 
the S&P index, which explains over 22 million shares changing 
hands today - over 2 times their average daily volume.  Still more 
fund buying to be done and fewer sellers showing up which should 
keep it moving to higher highs.  Buy dips.  Use stops.  Follow 
your plan.

T  $79.56 +$1.69 (+$3.81)  "AT&T shares forged ahead Monday, 
driven by positive comments from Wall Street and news that the 
long-distance provider plans to create a separate tracking stock 
for its soon-to-be wireless and cable unit, TCI" wrote CBS 
Marketwatch.  Investors are meeting this once sleepy giant with 
renewed enthusiasm over the prospect of TCI ownership.  It means 
AT&T can now provide local, long distance, internet, data, etc. 
services through your cable TV.  Take that you local exchange 
carriers!  Tomorrow, AT&T releases the details of the TCI deal 
which could drive the price of both even higher.  Multitude of 
upgrades too:  Merrill sets new price target of $94; Lehman 
Brothers issues a "buy" rating with a price target of $95.  
Confirm direction before starting the play.

AGPH  $55.63 -$2.88 (-$3.12)  A great demonstration of why it is 
important to conform market direction before making the play and 
"buy the dip".  There have been no news reports on AGPH that we 
can find.  We added AGPH back after a couple of strong days and 
surmise this as profit taking.  In any case, with a slight price 
pullback, we now have a better buying opportunity.  The chart 
shows a fairly consistent retreat followed by a stronger rise 
every 2 weeks or so, and thus we expect AGPH to reverse course 
tomorrow or Thursday.  Again, confirm market direction before 
entering the trade.  This could still be an excellent trade. 

AMZN $124.50 +6.19 (+39.88)  Well, if you decided to take your 
profits before the actual split, you did good.  If you decided to 
hold over the split, you are doing even better.  On Monday, Amazon 
sprung up +$33.69 as investors dove in to ride the 3:1 split wave.  
On Tuesday,  Amazon forecasted fourth-quarter sales of $250 million.  
Even though the number crushed last year's fourth-quarter sales 
three and a half times over, it wasn't enough to top some whisper 
numbers floating around the $300 million level.  In early trading 
the stock fell about 10% from the "shortcoming."  But investors 
again jumped at the chance to buy the discounted Amazon.  It closed 
the day up +$6.19.  Although the finish was strong, Amazon warned 
that they still expect losses for the quarter resulting from higher 
customer service costs, competitive pricing, and slim profit margins.  
In other news, SportsLine USA and Amazon are partners after signing 
an electronic commerce agreement.  Wal-Mart won't give up its claims 
against Amazon of allegedly stealing trade secrets and filed another 
suit in the state of Washington.

MYG $60.50 -0.44 (-1.75)  Maytag has dropped two days in a row- 
something it hasn't done since way back in November.  Profit taking 
is most likely the cause as investors cash in on recent highs.  
Maytag is our steady mover.  We still feel it is a split candidate 
at these levels.  However, wait for a turn around before initiating 
new positions.  Never try to pick the bottom.  Wait and be patient.  
The swing will come.  No new news for Maytag.

SUNW $92.56 +2.50 (+6.93)  Sun, one of our split candidates, is 
really starting the New Year with a bang.  It has shot up almost 
$7.00 in only two days of trading.  Part of the run-up could 
possibly be attributed to Merrill Lynch & Co. raising its 12-month 
price target for SUNW to $103.  Sun Microsystems has also been busy 
working on new developments.  It is collaborating with Informix® 
Corporation, and Creative Healthcare Systems to offer community 
hospitals an effective way to make their computer systems Y2K 
compliant.  SUNW is also making life easier for its employees by 
providing them with the SunLibrary Bookstore.  Employees can access 
the reading materials they need more efficiently through this site 
formed in conjunction with Computer Literacy.    

EDS Electronic Data Systems Corp 49.81 +.44
On average volume today, EDS managed to squeak out closing on 
the upside.  After reaching a 52 week high the play is letting us 
take another look at it continuing on its breakout.  Today's news 
of China's Largest Commercial Bank Selecting FVC.com products for 
its Interactiv network, may have helped a bit as FVC.COM's 
distribution and system integration partners include leading 
telecommunication and networking companies throughout the world 
and EDS just happens to be one of them. 


******************
NEW CALL PLAYS 
******************

None tonight

******************
PLAY OF THE DAY 
******************

AMZN $124.50 +6.19 (+39.88)  Well, if you decided to take your 
profits before the actual split, you did good.  If you decided to 
hold over the split, you are doing even better.  On Monday, Amazon 
sprung up +$33.69 as investors dove in to ride the 3:1 split wave.  
On Tuesday,  Amazon forecasted fourth-quarter sales of $250 million.  
Even though the number crushed last year's fourth-quarter sales 
three and a half times over, it wasn't enough to top some whisper 
numbers floating around the $300 million level.  In early trading 
the stock fell about 10% from the "shortcoming."  But investors 
again jumped at the chance to buy the discounted Amazon.  It closed 
the day up +$6.19.  Although the finish was strong, Amazon warned 
that they still expect losses for the quarter resulting from higher 
customer service costs, competitive pricing, and slim profit margins.  
In other news, SportsLine USA and Amazon are partners after signing 
an electronic commerce agreement.  Wal-Mart won't give up its claims 
against Amazon of allegedly stealing trade secrets and filed another 
suit in the state of Washington.

New symbols

BUY CALL JAN-120 YZZ-AD at $10.88 $4.50 ITM but only one week
BUY CALL FEB-120 YZZ-BD at $20.25
BUY CALL FEB-130 YZZ-BF at $17.00

******************************************************************

MSFT  $146.50 +$5.50 (+$7.81)  Wow!  Nice pop!  Yesterday MSFT 
traded as high as $145 but closed off its high at $141.  Today 
though, MSFT closed at a new 52 week high and traded as high as 
$148 on 16 million shares.  With fresh cash and new flows of 
401K/IRA/pension money looking for a return, funds and investors 
began buying the large cap, high liquidity issues.  We look for 
the trend to continue since MSFT is on the radar screens and lips 
of lots of investors.  MSFT, now more than ever, is a major split 
candidate since they split like clockwork at $140.  We are 
"pounding the table" for the announcement along with earnings
(anticipated 1-21-99), barring a surprise in the trial.  In the 
news, Justice Department wraps up its testimony with MIT economics 
professor who argued that the only thing explaining "Microsoft's 
behavior is the profit-maximizing conduct of a monopolist."(CBS 
News)(profit maximizing conduct? - investors rejoice!)  Yesterday, 
Intuit's CEO acknowledged under cross-examination that his company 
switched from the Netscape browser when it turned out that 
Microsoft was far more likely to provide what Intuit needed in a 
timely way.(Reuters)  Justice Department's case is looking weak.  
Also, "Microsoft Corp. Tuesday posted 1998 sales of $250 million 
in the online travel service at its Internet portal, a 150 percent 
increase over 1997 sales of $100 million."  And "they unveiled a 
new version of their Internet browser for the Macintosh platform, 
aimed largely at the thousands of neophytes snapping up Apple 
Computer Inc. popular new iMac model."(Reuters)  Definitely a 
major play.

MAJOR SPLIT CANDIDATE

BUY CALL JAN-140 MSQ-AH at 8.13  $6.50 ITM
BUY CALL FEB-150 MSQ-BJ at 7.25  split play


******************************************************************
COMBINATION PLAYS  MARKET RECAP 
******************************************************************
U.S. stocks erased substantial early gains Monday afternoon as
investors, uneasy after a economic growth warnings from a Federal
Reserve official, sold their holdings and took profits. Traders
were betting that the blue-chip market would continue it's run at
a record high in the first session of the year but the index moved
only slightly higher. The Nasdaq composite index rose 15 points to
2208 but the S&P 500 fell 1.13 to 1228.10. In the broader market,
advancers led decliners 1,723 to 1,433 on active volume of 875 mil.
shares on the NYSE. Experts said the launch of the euro and the
undiminished pace of merger activity helped to set the market's
buoyant tone early in the session.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks surged as investors poured money into the
big-name techs and other high-growth stocks. The Dow closed well
over 100 points higher. The Nasdaq was up 43 points with another
record close. The S&P was also higher at 1,244.78, pushing past
the recent December record. Analysts said a lot of new money flows
into stocks in January as people plan their strategy for the new
year. Investors also shrugged off news the President's Senate
impeachment trial could start on Thursday. Traders said the issue
was on the backburner for Wall Street.

In our portfolio plays. EGRP was the big mover, gaining $10 at the
open on Monday, on news that it would execute a two-for-one stock
split for shareholders of record on 1/15/99. Unfortunately, with
the pre-market announcement and the gap-up, our call-debit spread
was unavailable. The BMCS play; JAN35P/40P bull-put spread, traded
near the recommended price on the long side but market-makers 
adjusted the short-option premium after the first execution. The
best price for the spread was about $0.87. IGEN was active in the
morning, falling almost $2 to $29 by 10:00 am. The JAN22P/25P put
credit spread was available for about $0.38. NOVL moved sideways
for most of the day and the new calendar spread; MAY17C/JAN17C,
opened easily for $1.87 debit. Our final play was a JAN10C/JAN10P
credit straddle on ESCMF and most traders should have received a
minimum of $2.25 for the opening credit. On Tuesday, AAPL was a
major mover and crossing the previous resistance at $42, our short
position was closed for $1.50. The long position was sold later in
the day to exit the play at a $0.25 profit. The company was in the
news as it unveiled a new line of its iMac computers in different
colors and also announced it had sold 800,000 iMacs since the new
computers were introduced in August. The stock is moving higher in
anticipation of Steve Jobs' address at Apple's upcoming conference
and a bullish forecast by Warburg Dillon Read. WCOM and ATI were
the biggest gainers in the portfolio and these calendar spreads
are both ITM so be sure to monitor your short positions closely.
******************************************************************
				- NEW PLAYS -
******************************************************************
ATHM - At Home Corporation  $80.25     Put Credit Spread

ATHM is a provider of internet services over the cable television 
infrastructure and leased digital telecom lines to consumers and
businesses. Cable and wireless companies stand to grab the lion's
share of the high-speed Internet market and to support that new
endeavor, ATHM is building a solid foundation of resources. They
announced in mid-December the intention to acquire a leader in
impact-rich media advertising solutions on the Internet, Narrative
Communications, for approximately $89 million. Narrative will be
in the Enliven Business Unit of @Home Network. The transaction may
occur as early as mid-January. @Home also recently announced it
intends to raise approximately $200 million through an offering of
convertible subordinated debentures and that it intends to use the
proceeds of the offering for general purposes and working capital,
capital expenditures including those associated with domestic and
international expansion. ATHM has established a strong support
area just below $70. Short-term TSV has crossed above it's moving
average and the current Internet momentum has helped ATHM bounce
off of it's 25 dma and should help propel the current move towards
a new high.

PLAY (conservative):

BUY  PUT JAN-65 AHQ-MM OI=567 A=$0.68
SELL PUT JAN-70 AHQ-MN OI=389 B=$1.25
NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.62 ROI=14%

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ATHM&d=3m
******************************************************************
MSPG - MindSpring Enterprises  $66.56     Call-Credit Spread

MSPG is a national Internet access provider that focuses on 
serving individual subscribers, including individuals with little
or no prior on-line experience. For the nine months ended 9/30/98,
total revenues rose from $35.3 million to $75.1 million. In mid-
December, MSPG announced that it had completed a registered public
offering of 2,300,000 shares of common stock. On December 15, MSPG
coverage was initiated by Jefferies & Co with a "BUY" rating and
that started the last run that failed at $70. MSPG has risen with
the Internet stocks since October but has failed three times to
get above $72. Since the start of December, buying-pressure has
fallen to zero with TSV sloping down and also approaching neutral.
The stock price has broken it's 25 DMA twice and with the volume
moving lower, this stock does not have the momentum to break above
it's resistance at $72.

PLAY (conservative):

BUY  CALL JAN-80 MQD-AP OI=517 A=$0.68
SELL CALL JAN-75 MQD-AO OI=729 B=$1.38
NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.75 ROI=17%

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=MSPG&d=3m
******************************************************************
T - AT&T Corporation    $79.50

AT&T provides voice, data and video telecommunications services 
to large and small businesses, consumers and government entities.
T also provides cellular telephone and other wireless services, 
as well as billing, directory and calling card services. For the 
nine months ended 9/30/98, revenues rose 3% to $39.7 billion. On
Monday Jan 4, T jumped 6% to reach a new high after a influential
Wall Street analyst upgraded the stock and details of its planned
$48 billion acquisition of Tele-Communications Inc began to emerge.
AT&T will run into some friction as some Internet companies like
AOL are asking Denver to let competitors have access to a new high
speed "broadband" network the companies are building. T has been
in a strong up-trend since December with speculation on the TCOMA
deal. The technicals are still strong though T is over-extended
and may need some room to consolidate.

PLAY (conservative):

BUY  CALL FEB-80 T-BP OI=2746 A=$4.38
SELL CALL JAN-80 T-AP OI=5055 B=$1.62
NET DEBIT TARGET=$2.50 TARGET ROI=25%

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=T&d=3m
******************************************************************
INDEX OPTION SPREADS...
******************************************************************
As a trader, you may be familiar with options on individual stocks
where you have the right to buy (call option) or the right to sell
(put option) a particular stock at some predetermined price within
some predetermined time. The buyer has the rights and the seller
the obligations. With index options the basic ideas are the same.
Index options allow you to make investment decisions on a specific
market industry or on the market as a whole. Spread strategies can
be made with index options similar to those made with individual
stock options. Many professional traders employ index spreads as a
hedge strategy. We favor debit positions on the SPX for momentum
and longer-term plays and OTM credit spreads on the OEX when the
risk/reward is favorable. Low ROI disparity spreads will be listed
(when available) for the conservative index trader.
*******************************************************************
OEX - S&P 100 Index  $615.38     OTM Credit-Spreads

The Standard & Poor's 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index
of 100 stocks from a broad range of industries. The component
stocks are weighted according to the total market value of their
outstanding shares. The impact of a component's price change is
proportional to the issue's total market value, which is the share
price times the number of shares outstanding. 

OBSERVATIONS:

For OTM credit spread trades, we like to use the actively-traded
S&P 100 Index options because they contain much more premium than
options on individual stocks and provide an underlying instrument
less prone to huge, gapping moves. Remember however, that you can
always be exercised early so monitor your positions daily.

TECHNICALS:

Review the Pinnacle Hedge-Section for more specific technical
information on the S&P 100 Index.

PLAY (conservative/bearish):
BUY  CALL JAN-635 OEY-AG OI=2952 A=$1.12
SELL CALL JAN-630 OEY-AF OI=9341 B=$2.00
NET CREDIT TARGET=$1.00 ROI=25%

PLAY (aggressive/bullish):
BUY  PUT JAN-585 OEW-MQ OI=5472 A=$1.62
SELL PUT JAN-590 OEW-MR OI=7873 B=$2.06
NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.50 ROI=11%

CHART= http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^oex&d=b
*******************************************************************




******************************************************************
Put Recommendations 
******************************************************************
Tuesday, January 5, 1999


Recommendations at a Glance:

Earnings Warnings:
Halliburton Company (HAL) - $29.63  (+.93)
Network Equipment   (NWK) ­ $10.25  (+.25) 
Premisys Comms     (PRMS) ­ $ 9.19  (+.56)

Downgrades:
Ruby Tuesday         (RI) - $21.25  (-1.69)

Failed Rallies:
Texas Inst          (TXN) - $85.63  (+3.37) Dropped
Micron Tech         (MU)  - $50.56  (+3.44) Dropped
BMC Software        (BMCS)- $44.56  (-2.00)
Eli Lilly           (LLY) - $88.88  (-3.07)
Merck               (MRK) - $147.50 (+3.25) Dropped



Earnings Warnings:
--------------------------------------------------------------

Halliburton Company (HAL) - $29.63 (+.93)
Oil & Gas

Oilfield Services company Halliburton Co slid late last week
after warning that that its expects to $.14 to .16 per share
after charges in the 4Q98 far short of First Call mean
estimates of $.36 per share. The stock remains under its
declining 50,100 and 200-day moving average. Overhead
resistance range between $32-$40; underlying support at $26. 

BUY PUT FEB-30 HAL-NF OI=339 at $2.50 SL=1.25

*****************************************************

Network Equipment (NWK) ­ $10.25 (+.25) 
Networking

Network equipment designer and developer broke below near-term
consolidation and support of $11 after warning that that its
3Q98 will be significantly below estimates of $.20. The
stock remains under its declining 50, 100 and 200-day moving
average. Overhead resistance range between $11-$13; 
underlying support at $9.

BUY PUT FEB-12.5 NWK-NV OI=20 at $2.00 SL=1.00
BUY PUT FEB-10 NWK-NB OI=24 at $ .75 SL= .25

*****************************************************

Premisys Comms (PRMS) ­ $9.19 (+56)

NetIntrgreated digital access manufacturer broke below near
term consolidation and support of $11 after warning that that
its 2Q98 will be $.08-.10 versus estimates of $.15. The 
stock remains under its declining 50, 100 and 200-day moving
average. Overhead resistance range between $11-$16; 
underlying support at $6.

BUY PUT FEB-12.5 RQS-NV OI=10 at $3.38 SL=1.50
BUY PUT FEB-10 RQS-NB OI=10 at $1.50 SL= .50



Brokerage Downgrades:
--------------------------------------------------------------

Ruby Tuesday (RI) - $21.25 (-1.69)
Restaurant / Services

After climbing 40% after the past three months, this causal
dining restaurant operation was downgraded from outperform to
hold by Wheat First Union. The stock¹s 50-day moving average
is $19 while the 100-day moving average is $17.50. Since the
stock is above moving averages, we recommend closing out
position after selling off back to the break out price of
$17-$18.

BUY PUT FEB-20 RI-ND OI= 0 at $1.13 SL=.75
BUY PUT APR-20 RI-PD OI=644 at $ .94 SL=.50


Failed Rallies:
--------------------------------------------------------------

BMC Software (BMCS) - $44.56 (-2.00)
Software

A leader in enterprise-level software was downgraded by
Soundview in October 98 and by Morgan Stanley last month. 
Stock showing classic signs of a failed rally trading below
its declining 50, 100 and 200-day moving average and is
dangerously testing it prior support of $40. If BMCS break
below $40, could garner additional profits. Separately, BMC
Software announce today (1/5) that Platium will abandon all
claims against MBC Software in Platinum¹s lawsuit against BMCS.

BUY PUT FEB-45 BCQ-NI OI=1290 at $4.50 SL= 3.00
BUY PUT FEB-40 BCQ-NH OI=458 at $2.38 SL= 1.25

*****************************************************

Eli Lilly (LLY) - $88.88 (-3.07)
Healthcare

A leading healthcare management services provider recent
topped out at its 52-week high of $91.31 and showing classic
signs of a failed rally trading above its 50, 100 and 200-day
moving averages. Retracement target $75-80 after climbing
30% over the past three months.

BUY PUT FEB-85 LLY-NQ OI=832 at $2.88 SL= 1.25
BUY PUT FEB-80 LLY-NP OI=122 at $1.25 SL= .50

*****************************************************
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