Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 03/02/1999

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The Option Investor Newsletter         Tuesday  3-2-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings.
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        3-02-99         High     Low     Volume   Advances Decline
DOW     9297.61 - 27.17 9421.22  9268.00  748,343k  1,413   1,554
Nasdaq  2259.03 - 36.15 2317.57  2257.07  893,537k  1,711   2,230 
S&P-100  611.39 -  6.67  623.88   609.12   Totals   3,124   3,784
S&P-500 1225.50 - 10.66 1248.31  1221.87            45.2%   54.8%
$RUT     394.43 +   .04  398.30   394.01
$TRAN   3279.06 + 53.20 3301.37  3226.01
VIX       30.58 +  1.74   31.32    28.29
Put/Call Ratio      .55

The Dow touched 9400 again today and again bounced off the
current top of our recent trading range.

Another day, another bounce off the limits of the current
9400 top of our range. Just like it was scripted the Dow
performed its task just like clockwork. A bottom test yesterday
of 9220 and a top test today of 9420. Looks like a vertical
ping pong game. The current choppy, directionless market is
causing havoc with the buy and hold traders and after the
3Com announcement tonight it looks like it could get worse.

The drop in today's market from a high of +95 for the Dow and
+22 on the Nasdaq was prompted on the surface by earnings
worries and continued downgrades of tech stocks. Intel was
again downgraded on a forecast of slower PC sales, weaker
chip market and aggressive competition. This continued
pattern of analyst flight from the leading techs will be
made worse tomorrow after the 3Com earnings warning tonight.
3Com had been sliding all day as news evidently leaked out
to somebody in advance of the official warning. The numbers
were bad. 3Com now expects to earn only $.23 instead of the
analysts estimates of $.36. The reasons given sound like a
grab bag of what the tech bears have been saying for months.

We quote, "An unexpected slowdown in the U.S. and Latin 
American markets, a weakness in the traditional two-tier
distribution channel, and lower than expected OEM PC sales
all contributed to weaker results", said Chairman Eric

Lets see, unexpected slowdown, distribution weakness and
weak PC sales. Looks like three more nails in the tech
coffin for this week. That along with the Intel, CSCO, 
Dell, CPQ problems may finally vindicate Bill Fleckenstein.
Bill is the loudest tech bear and has been calling for an 
end in the Y2K buying for some time.

I got several emails this week asking when the Y2K buying
would start. Don't look now but the END of the buying is
in sight. Major companies who make up the majority of these
purchases have been buying for some time. They can't afford
to wait until three months before Y2K to fix their problems.
Several companies I know bought 5,000 to 10,000 PC work 
stations last year. It takes a long time to configure, test
upgrade, etc, that many new boxes. Then you add the software
and internal databases and user complexities and you can 
span a year easily. This process is coming to a conclusion
now as everyone is entering into the testing and certification
phase. Do you remember back about six months ago when Dell
was announcing a new multi million dollar contract almost
every day? FTD, Mobil, etc, major companies, tens of thousands
of computers. Now that they are all shipped what do they do
to fill the void? This is where the rubber meets the road,
to use an old expression. 

Most analysts thought we would get through the second quarter
earnings before the Y2K slowing would be felt. Don't look 
now but that may be darkness approaching faster than we
thought. Even excitement over the HWP restructuring announcement
did not help hold the market up. The transportation sector
rallied on several upgrades and the Russell-200 also failed
to drop. These positive signposts may be lost in the fog if
we get another tech sell off tomorrow. There is a bottom but
we may not be there yet. The firming yesterday turned out to
be just a temporary plateau. Some tech analysts still hold
out hope that this is just a buying opportunity and a normal
cycle in the boom - bust tech sector. Internet users will
still want faster PCs and companies will still be upgrading
internal networks to cope with growing business. This could
be just a correction in focus. Any tech company with +25-35%
growth is still a better play than a manufacturing company
with a +12-15% growth. There are tech buyers. They just want
to buy at a level that represents value for expected growth.
What that growth over the next twelve months will be is yet
to be seen.

Futures had been down about -2.50 but are trending up again.
At least there is not a stampede to the exits in progress.
Just like the CPQ warning last week the 3Com warning may be
viewed as competition driven instead of sales driven. 3Com 
has been having trouble in their sector given the companies
expanding into their niche. Only time will tell. 

I am in cash due to the current seminar schedule and I must
confess it feels good given the current uneasy market. Yes, 
I was cussing myself for missing the CMGI and RNWK plays
this week but there will be others in the future. Profit
comes to those that patiently wait. I have received many
emails from people who bought the dip on Monday according
to the plan and then sold again today at the top end of the 
range. They are ecstatic about finally understanding the 
concept of trend trading. While everybody else is moaning
about the market they traded the plan and made money. Most
are in cash again and will buy any rebound below 9200 and
repeat the plan. I also got emails from people still holding
options from several weeks ago. Some complain about being
profitable every other day but having their positions go
negative in between. The question, "What am I doing wrong"?
The answer, THIS IS NOT A BUY AND HOLD MARKET. If you are
a buy and hold player then you need to close your position
the next time it goes positive. WAIT for the market to 
establish a new direction, THEN PLAY. If you are not a
trend trader then STAY OUT. The market is unforgiving and
will take your last dollar and not look back. We have the
option to trade what the market gives us or wait for the
next pitch. (see "Its like baseball" in Options 101)
After next weeks seminar I will be waiting for that perfect
pitch before I venture back into the market.

Sell too soon!

Jim Brown   

New Feature 

Starting today we have a new link on the newsletter page
to show charts for all the Asian and European markets
ON ONE PAGE. They update automatically every five minutes
while those markets are open. You can check out all the
important overnight markets as they change.

Look under "Traders Tools", "World Markets"

Market Posture
As of Market Close - Tuesday, March 2, 1999 

                   Key Benchmarks
Broad Market       Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert

DOW Industrials    9,200   9,500   9,298    Neutral   2.25            
SPX S&P 500        1,225   1,280   1,226    BEARISH   3.2  *  
OEX S&P 100          615     630     611    BEARISH   3.2  *   
RUT Russell 2000     420     435     394    BEARISH   2.4    

NDX NASD 100       1,900   2,150   1,889    BEARISH   3.2  *   
MSH High Tech        930   1,040     933    BEARISH   3.2  *       

                   Key Benchmarks
Technology         Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
XCI Hardware         840     970     805    BEARISH   2.26            
CWX Software         620     680     604    BEARISH   2.26              
SOX Semiconductor    375     420     347    BEARISH   2.26      
NWX Networking       410     450     406    BEARISH   2.25            
INX Internet         450     570     495    Neutral   2.19       

                   Key Benchmarks
Financial          Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
BIX Banking          630     675     668    Neutral   2.25                  
XBD Brokerage        630     700     704    Neutral   2.25      
IUX Insurance        570     625     620    Neutral   2.25            

                   Key Benchmarks
Other              Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
RLX Retail           825     880     869    Neutral   2.25    
DRG Drug             750     795     783    Neutral   2.25      
HCX Healthcare       750     780     779    Neutral   2.25              
XAL Airline          300     330     338    BULLISH   3.2  * 
OIX Oil & Gas        230     250     220    BEARISH   2.16                  

Posture Alert

After the latest rally failed Tuesday (3/2), we have turned 
Bearish across select broad market indices amid rising
interest rates and skepticism over earnings prospects.  We
have turned Bullish, however, on the Airline sector after the
transportation index broke out above key overhead resistance
levels following favorable analysts comments.  We want to
caution investors that several of our trusted technical and 
sentiment indicators have turned Bearish and to develop a 
balanced attack.

A detailed description of our Market Posture and its
applications can be found at:


Market Sentiment - By Pinnacle Capital Advisors

Interest Rates - A key Pillar?

If it's true that interest rates is a key pillar of the stock 
market, does it concern you that the Treasury yield on the 30
year bond has pop its head ABOVE its declining 200-day moving
average and broken a trend that had been in tack since June 1997?


Together with our other bearish technical sentiment indicators, 
this should raise a red flag among subscribers particularly with
a key economic report on Friday that will tell us just how
strong the economy is moving. 

Specifically, our Pinnacle Index, a short-term contrarian 
sentiment indicator, are at extreme levels for many of the big-cap 
stocks that make up the S&P 100 index (OEX).  This reading is 
further confirmed by today's (Tuesday 3/2) CBOE OEX Put/call
ratio of .674 -- the lowest reading in over the past 18 months. 
This simply means that too many option speculators are betting
that broad market will continue to rise.  This may happen, but if 
these lofty expectations are not met or if a negative news event
occurs, the market may be in for precipitous sell-off.

Over the past couple of weeks, Pinnacle Capital Advisors has been 
alerting subscribers about huge divergence between DOW
and the NYSE advance/decline line. This is one reason why 
Pinnacle has been alerting investors to be suspicious of every
"profit-taking" sell-off they come across. It could very well be
the start of something more.

What's more, Pinnacle believes that the market will likely begin
to flatten out, consolidate in a trading range before rolling
over into a correction given our technical and sentiment
indicators.  As such, we encourage subscribers to develop a
balance attack and begin to look for hedge/short opportunities.

A detail breakdown of Pinnacle Capital Advisors' market
sentiment analysis together with supporting charts, graphs,
tables and explanations can be accessed through OI's
website at:


Market Sentiment at a Glance
                                Friday      Tues     Thurs  
Indicator                       (2/26)     (3/2)     (3/4)  Alert

Pinnacle Index (OEX):          
Overhead Resistance (620-635)     1.2         1.3
Underlying Support  (595-610)     1.7         2.0

Put/Call Ratios:
CBOE Total P/C Ratio               .9          .7
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio              .7          .5             *   
OEX P/C Ratio                     1.3          .7             *                

Peak Open Interest (OEX):
Puts                              610          560
Calls                             620          620
P/C Ratio                         1.1          1.2

Market Volatility Index (VIX):	
CBOE VIX                        29.52         30.58           *

Investors Intelligence:
Bullish                          54.1%        54.1%           *  
Bearish                          31.5%        31.5%           *

The Power of Sentiment Analysis

It has often been said that the crowd is right during the
market trends but wrong at both ends.  Measuring and
evaluating the sentiment of the crowd, therefore, can give
savvy option traders a decided edge.

Pinnacle Index
OEX                             Friday     Tues      Thurs
Benchmark                       (2/26)     (3/2)     (3/4)
                    (630-635)      1.2       1.6
                    (620-625)       .9       1.1 
Overhead Resistance (620-635)      1.0       1.3

OEX Close                       618.42    611.39

Underlying Support  (595-610)      1.7      2.0
                    (605-610)      1.7      1.8
                    (595-600)      1.7      2.2

Average ratings: 
Resistance levels 2.0 / Support .5

What the Pinnacle Index is telling us:
Overhead sentiment resistance is building at the OEX 620/635
level while the underlying support is firm at the
OEX 595/610 level.

Put/Call Ratio 
                                Friday      Tues      Thurs
Strike/Contracts                (2/26)     (3/2)      (3/4) 
CBOE Total P/C Ratio               .73      .67
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio              .52      .49
OEX P/C Ratio                     1.27      .67

Peak Open Interest (OEX)
                     Friday         Tues           Thurs
Strike/Contracts     (2/26)         (3/2)          (3/4)
Puts                 610 / 9,902    560 / 11,990
Calls                620 / 8,614    620 /  9,849
Put/Call Ratio       1.15           1.22




Market Volatility Index (VIX)
Date                Turning Point       VIX
October 97          Bottom              54.60      
July 20, 1998       Top                 16.88         
October 8, 1998     Bottom              60.63
January 11, 1998    Top                 26.38

March 2, 1999                           30.58   *




Investors Intelligence Survey
                    Major             Percent     Percent
Date                Turning Point     Bullish     Bearish
October 97          Bottom            22.0        48.3       
July 20, 1998       Top               52.0        24.0         
October 8, 1998     Bottom            38.5        42.7
January 11, 1999    Top               58.3        30.0

January   6, 1999                     58.3        30.0   
January  13, 1999                     60.0        30.0   
January  20, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
January  27, 1999                     60.7        28.2   

February  3, 1999                     60.0        26.7   
February 10, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
February 17, 1999                     55.7        28.7   
February 24, 1999                     55.7        28.7   *

Please view this in COURIER 10 font for alignment

Index    Last    Mon     Tue Week
Dow    9297.61  18.20  -27.17 -8.97
Nasdaq 2259.03   7.15  -36.15-29.00
$OEX    611.39  -0.36   -6.67 -7.03
$SPX   1225.50  -2.17  -10.66-12.83
$RUT    394.43   2.13    0.04  2.17
$TRAN  3279.06  18.43   53.20 71.63
$VIX     30.58  -0.68    1.74  1.06

Stock   Price    Mon     Tue Week

CMGI    141.00  10.75    7.63 18.38 Exploding to mid 150s.
RNWK     83.13  13.50   -0.50 13.00 Held its gains!!!
BCST     90.00  11.69   -5.50  6.19 Profit taking
COF     132.56   1.19    3.75  4.94 Picking up steam?
MCD      89.88   1.56    3.31  4.87 Charging ahead
ANF      80.75   2.56    2.19  4.75 New play, Breakout!
SONE     70.13   0.12    4.38  4.50 New momentum play
OSSI     47.50   1.93    1.69  3.62 Dropped. play over
MEDI     57.38   2.25    0.13  2.38 Stayed positive!
MER      78.25  -0.31    1.81  1.50 Sector rotation contd.
PSIX     37.13   0.38    0.94  1.32 Still gaining
PVN     103.06  -1.00    1.94  0.94 Financials are popular
UTX     124.63   0.75    0.00  0.75 Resisted the Dow
LOW      59.63   0.00    0.31  0.31 New high today
MWD      90.38  -0.88    0.75 -0.13 Stayed positive!
CMA      65.88  -0.31   -0.06 -0.37 Holding steady
WMT      85.44  -0.25   -0.44 -0.69 Resisted the Dow
SCH      73.69  -1.88    1.00 -0.88 another broker
LGTO     48.06  -0.81   -0.38 -1.19 Resisting market trend
WCOM     80.50  -1.81   -0.19 -2.00 Wait for positive close
AOL      86.69   0.63   -2.88 -2.25 Slipping with the market
DLJ      54.63  -0.50   -1.88 -2.38 Profit taking
VOD     179.69  -2.19   -0.31 -2.50 Dropped
LVLT     52.81  -0.88   -2.31 -3.19 Dropped.
EMC      98.00  -2.63   -1.75 -4.38 Look for bounce
AMZN    121.31   4.88  -11.69 -6.81 Dropped.


INTC    109.81  -2.88   -7.25-10.13 Falling Fast!
WLA      67.00   0.06   -1.88 -1.82 Rolling over?
ERTS     38.63  -0.06   -1.19 -1.25 Broke key support
BMCS     40.63   2.63   -2.88 -0.25 Rally failed
CB       60.25   0.31   -0.06  0.25 Still not going anywhere
WHR      43.75  -2.50    2.75  0.25 Dropped. stock buyback
ADBE     40.63  -0.06    0.44  0.38 Support weakening
BBY      93.31  -4.25    4.81  0.56 PC sales slowing
BDX      35.00   0.06    1.44  1.50 Fighting back
ELNK     62.00   2.25   -0.44  1.81 New trend?

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time. 
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


AMZN $121.31 (-6.82)  Amazon was up +$4.88 on Monday.  
However, on Tuesday the leaders in the sector seemed to cool 
off.  AMZN, YHOO, and AOL all finished with losses.  AMZN's 
dip was particularly large as it shed -$11.69.  Since February 
17th, AMZN has jumped over 40 points.  This drop in Amazon 
could merely be consolidation. However, its alarming drop
near the end of the day was discouraging and we would 
rather let it correct with out us.

OSSI $47.50 (+3.62)  OSSI split 3:2 after the bell on
Tuesday.  The stock shot up to an all time high of $48.13 
in intraday trading as investors made a final attempt to 
get in before the split.  OSSI made a run of +3.62 in 
trading this week but we are dropping it as a play due to 
the common occurrence of (possible) post split depression.
We will add it again if it can resume its uptrend.   

LVLT $52.81 -2.31 (-3.19) LVLT is being dropped today for 
its drop below $55.  LVLT had held up all day until the last 
hour when it broke down.  We will watch this one and possibly 
pick it back when it breaks out above $60.

VOD $179.69 -.31 (-2.50)  We are going to let VOD go today.
It just isn't moving up.  It hasn't necessarily broken down,
but we feel that until it shows some strength, there are 
better plays elsewhere.


WHR $43.75 +2.75 (+.25) Finally, WHR rolled over yesterday 
for a $2.50 loss on decent volume.  Just when we thought
this put play would come through, today, WHR announced a
$250 million share buyback, volume tripled on the news and
WHR broke well over $44 resistance.  Despite that WHR
continues to suffer internationally and is still on S&P

credit watch with negative implications, this play is over.


MER $78.25 +1.81 (+1.50) MER is up $1.50 on the week so far 
in a strong brokerage group. It topped $79.00 both yesterday 
and today, but couldn't quite hold that level. There may be 
some resistance at $80.00, but if the brokerages remain in 
favor, the stock should be able to clear it. In the news, over 
900 women have joined a lawsuit claiming financial 
discrimination, but the lawsuit doesn't seem to be hurting 
the stock.

WMT $85.44 -.44 (-.69) Yesterday WMT traded in a $3 range, but 
ended the day very nearly where it started. Today it reached 
$87.38 before falling nearly $2 to close at $85.44. Every few 
days, WMT sets a new high and then pulls back again. Use those 
highs to take profits and buy back in when the stock drops. 
This is not a big mover, but it is also not as risky as other 
plays. Possible resistance at $89.50, the high it set on 
Wednesday last week.

SCH $73.69 +1.00 (-.87) After gaining over $4.00 in last 
Friday's trading, Schwab gave a little of it back yesterday. 
Perhaps the year's fourth episode of trading glitches, which 
occurred at Schwab yesterday morning, had an affect. CNBC nabbed 
a quick interview with a Schwab representative at the ongoing 
internet conference today to ask about the problem. He said 
that no online broker is up and running ALL of the time, but 
Schwab's goal is 99.9% of the time, with backup systems that 
kick in seamlessly when the main system goes down. Schwab 
claims a 30% share of the market and its accounts are growing. 
The glitches are occurring while it is upgrading its systems 
to provide more capacity. Today Schwab gapped up $1.00 at the 
open and closed exactly where it opened. Brokerages remain 

DLJ $54.63 -1.88 (-2.37) It was DLJ that raised its outlook on 
the whole brokerage industry, yet DLJ lost out on the gains 
seen by many of the other brokerage stocks. DLJ was down both 
yesterday and today, but today's loss of $1.88 was on light 
volume. Hopefully, this just represents a little profit taking 
following last week's gains. The chart still looks good, and 
continued rotation into this sector should help the stock.  

PVN $103.06 +1.94 (+.83) PVN continues to perform well. Each 
time the stock dips, like it did yesterday, it comes right back 
with a gain. Piper Jaffray, who initiated coverage Friday with 
a "buy", has a 12-month price target of $116.00. The only 
resistance now is its high of $108.81, set on Wednesday. Set 
your trailing stops to protect profits and enjoy the ride.

MEDI $57.38 +.13 (+2.38) On Wednesday last week, MEDI set a 
new high of $59.00 on strong volume, and matched it on Thursday, 
before pulling back to gather itself for a run to a new high. 
Yesterday it tacked on $2.25, and today it hit that new intra-
day high of $59.50, before closing at $57.38. Volume for the 
last 3 days has been a little light, so be sure to use 
protective stops. Otherwise, looking strong.

EMC $98.00 -1.75 (-4.38) EMC bounced off of support at $100 six
times in the last 4 days.  This afternoon it broke down through
$100 to close at $98.  We would wait for some upward movement
before initiating any new trades.  On Monday, EMC introduced
new Fibre Channel network storage and switching equipment that
allows multiple storage systems to be connected together.  Such
systems give a company an enterprise-wide view of all the data
stored on its computers, eliminating islands of isolated data
trapped in departments.  EMC believes the new products could
expand its potential market to $50 billion in 2002.  Several
analysts believe that EMC may be hinting that its goal of $10
billion in revenues two year from now may be too low.

UTX $124.63 +0.00 (+.75) UTX got as high as $126 today, but
then traded down.  In the news, UTX announced that it has set
up an office in Singapore for its Asia Pacific headquarters. 
Through its presence in Asia, they are seeking regional joint
ventures and acquisitions.  Also, Italy has launched an
antitrust probe into three elevator firms including UTX's Otis
Elevator Co.  It sounds like they don't want the US stealing
the antitrust thunder with its Microsoft case.

LOW $59.63 +.31 (+.31) LOW traded to a new high today at $60.88
before trading down like a lot of stocks did today.  LOW looks
like a slow and steady gainer at this point.  It was good to
see LOW trade through the $60 level because it has had some
trouble with this level in the last couple of days.  The only
news we have had on LOW were a couple of executive promotions.

LGTO $48.06 -.38 (-1.19) LGTO closed right at its 21 day moving
average today.  As we discussed on Sunday, stocks don't go up
uninterrupted.  In fact there is a cycle that calls for 7 up
days, followed by 3 down days.  LGTO has had 7 up days, and if
LGTO follows this cycle, tomorrow could be the third down day. 
In the news, LGTO signed a multi-year, multi-million dollar
enterprise license agreement to provide Yahoo! with its
storage management product.  After this deal was announced an
analyst reiterated its buy rating on LGTO, as they feel that
the deal with Yahoo! validates LGTO's position as the leading
provider of scalable, multi-platform storage management

***** Play updates continued in section two *****

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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education 
of options traders. The newsletter is an information service 
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed 
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The 
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation 
of any stock or option but an information resource to aid the
investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in 
options. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the 
editor and staff of The Option Investor Newsletter may own, 
buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult 
a qualified professional before trading in any security. The 
information provided has been obtained from sources deemed 
reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
The newsletter staff makes every effort to provide timely 
information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific 
delivery times due to factors beyond our control.

The Option Investor Newsletter         Tuesday  3-2-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

PICK NEWS - CALLS (continued)

AOL $86.75 -2.81 (-2.19)  Yesterday, AOL gave us a small 
gain, but took it all back, and then some, in the last 2 
hours of today's action.  We cautioned Sunday that profit 
taking may set in, and today, it did.  Technicals are still 
positive, but AOL is resting just below its 30 dma ($88).  
We need to hold here and rise on heavy volume, or nicely 
penetrate $91.81 (on average or better volume), its all-
time trading high.  Otherwise, following their 2:1 split, 
we'll likely remain in this range for a consolidation 
before the next run.  Wait for market confirmation before 

WCOM $80.50 -0.19 (-2.00)  Yesterday's loss on slightly 
weak volume gave what we thought was a buying opportunity.  
Sure enough, volume came into the stock and gave us a $2.19 
boost before day's end when we gave it all back.  Much as 
we dislike a loss, we'd rather it was on low volume.  WCOM 
is fighting vociferously to get Baby Bells to open up their 
local markets; this time in Pennsylvania, wherein the PUC 
will likely rule in WCOM's and other competitive carriers' 
favor.  Market willing, WCOM should resume upward movement 
to get back over $82, then to its next resistance at 

C $59.00 -2.25 (+0.25)  At least they didn't give it all 
back!  Yesterday, C logged +$2.50, but gave back $2.25 
today.  Fortunately, volume was big yesterday and small 
today.  We take that as a positive, overall.  Given 
yesterday's strong volume and the overall recent strength 
of large banks, we chalk it up to profit taking.  All 
technical indicators are positive.  Until the market gives 
us a clear upward directional signal, we may drift here 
another day or two, even though C's 50 dma just crossed 
positively over its 200 dma (very bullish).  An old Wall 
Street adage says that financial and technology will 
presage a market recovery.  C and a handful of others will 
lead the charge.  Wait for positive market direction.

BCST $90.00 -5.50 (+6.19)  Wow!  What a Monday!  Today, 
BCST traded as high as $101 (partially on news that it 
would carry Rush Limbaugh and Art Bell popular radio talk 
show hosts), but gradually lost its grip throughout today's 
trading to close down $11 from its intra-day trading high.  
Volume was strong both days.  Remember, last Friday, the 
Chicago Board of Options Exchange announced the trading of 
the new Internet Commerce Index (^ECM).  BCST is 1 of 15 
Internet companies to make up the index.  Technicals remain 
in the positive.  Though Internets have been strong lately, 
don't rely on them to carry the market.  Market willing, 
when the Internets run, BCST will be a leader.  Wait for 
positive direction before starting a play.

CMA $65.88 -.06 (-.37) CMA has stayed neutral the first
two trading days of this week.  It seems that there is a
sector rotation from technology stocks into financials and
CMA could be a leader of this move when the market firms.
CMA did trade as high as $67.75 today before selling off at
the end of the day.  Watch for confirmation of a positive 
day before jumping in.  Volume has been low during the last
few trading days, which shows a lack of conviction by the

MWD $90.38 +.75 (-.12)  MWD had a positive day on Tuesday, 
but is trading flat on the week.  We like the fact that MWD
has held strong regardless of the lack of rumors surrounding
a buyout.  MWD also could benefit from the sector rotation
from techs to financials.  Watch for pullbacks off moving
averages and always have at least a mental stop.  MWD should
be a market leader when the market decides to sustain a rally.

PSIX $37.13 +.94 (+1.33)  PSIX has held strong this week and
is reaching its 52-week high of $40.18.  PSIX did announce 
today they are buying two French Internet providers to provide
move dial-up services.  PSIX does have some momentum after 
announcing better than expected earnings last week.  Intra-day
pullbacks should be considered tradable.

RNWK $83.13 -.50 (+13.00)  OK, so RNWK closed negative today.
But what a move on Monday.  RNWK traded as high as $85.50 on
Monday and reached an intra-day high of $87.50 today.  The big
jump came from news that RNWK and GeoCities have entered an
Internet broadcasting pact.  We are in new high territory, so
there really is no resistance to speak of.  Target shooting
might be a good way of playing this stock.

CMGI $141.00 +7.63 (+18.37)  On Monday, CMGI announced that it 
had signed a deal to buy Internet Profiles Corp., a company 
that makes web site monitoring software.  It also said it would 
acquire 2Can Media, an online advertising firm.  The moves were 
popular with investors as proven by the +10.75 jump in the 
stock price.  But as we all know, that was nothing compared to 
the company's action on Tuesday.  CNBC may have lit the 
firecracker in the morning as they aired a positive story on 
the company.  CMGI has seen a 17,000% increase in its own stock 
price since its IPO days.  CMGI has also produced over +5000% 
in returns from its investments.  (If only they hadn't passed 
on EBAY, as regretfully stated by their head honcho!)  CMGI 
reached a staggering height of $155.34, the highest the stock 
has been since it split 2:1 back in January.  At one point, the 
stock had been up over 20 points.  When the market turned for 
the worse in mid day trading, investors took some profits.  
However, the stock still finished up +$7.63.  It is extremely 
important to use your stop losses if you haven't already cashed 
in your gains.  There is still room for profit taking.  

COF $132.56 +3.75 (+4.93)  COF finished last week with a gain 
of +$3.75.  It continued the trend on Monday and Tuesday of 
this week by moving up +$4.93.  If bond concerns can subside, 
we could see COF edge closer to Piper Jaffray's price target 
of $157.  However, COF has posted gains for three days in a 
row.  Remember those cycles?  3,5,7 day positive moves are 
often followed by 2,3,5 day drops as stocks consolidate.  
Make sure you set your stop losses!   

MCD $89.88 +3.31 (+4.88)  McDonald's is splitting 2:1 this 
Friday, March 5th and investors definitely took notice of 
the fact.  On Monday, the stock rose +$1.56.  On Tuesday, 
the stock added an additional +$3.31.  It even reached an 
all time high of $90 in intraday trading.  The positive 
markets provided the momentum for the move early in the day 
on Tuesday.  But when the markets sunk back into negative 
territory by the close, McDonald's showed strength by holding 
on to its gains.  Look for MCD to continue its run.  However, 
make sure you adjust your stop losses accordingly to protect 
any profits.   


CB $60.25 -.06 (+.25) Not a lot of news on CB, as it has 
traded pretty flat.  We still feel it is in a precarious
situation and could sell off at any time.  Until CB can trade
above its 50-dma, we feel it is a good put candidate.  Watch
for bumps against the 50-dma for tradable plays.

ADBE - $40.63 .44 (.38) Stock up fractionally but still trading
below declining 50-day moving average.  Underlying support of 
$40 may not hold very much longer.  Company announced Adobe 
InDesign, the next generation of professional publishing software.
Software was released at the Seybold Publishing Conference in Boston. 

BBY - $93.31  4.81 (.56) Stock very volatile near its 52-week 
highs.  Stock down 4.00+ Monday, up nearly 5.00 Tuesday.  We 
still like the short theme given the slowdown in PC sales.  
Company announced today a major new multi-million dollar artist 
development program aimed at discovering and supporting the 
superstars of the future.

BDX - $35.00   1.44 (1.50) Stock snapped back to its key support 
level and break down price but still trading below its declining 
50-day moving average.

BMCS - $40.63  -2.88 (-.25) Stock latest rally fialed just under 
its key benchmark of $45 and now threatens a key support level 
of $40.  Stock could come under pressure if it violates $40.

ERTS - $38.63  -1.23 (-1.25) Stock just broke down under key 
support level of $40 and looking weaker.  The consolidation 
between $40-42 now serves as overhead resistance.

ELNK - $62.00 -.44 (1.81) Stock holding firm as Internet sectors
moved up strong on Monday (3/1).  Stock still weakest within 
Internet sector and once the Internet frenzy cools, stock could 
garner a nice windfall. 

WLA - $67.00  -1.88 (-1.81) Stock latest rally failed at $70 
just under declining 50-day moving average.  Lots of overhead 
now building between $70-$75.


SONE - Security First Tech. $70.13 +4.38 (+4.50 for the week)

SONE develops and licenses internet application software 
that helps financial institutions offer bill paying, money 
transfers, expense tracking, and a host of personal, 
secure, on-line financial software to their customers.  
Citibank, First National Bank and Royal Bank of Canada are 
current users.  Royal Bank of Canada is now a major 
investor.  HP and Anderson Consulting have formed alliances 
with SONE recently as part of their e-commerce consulting 

Occasionally, we find a diamond that appears already cut 
and polished.  SONE reported Q3 revenues 128% over last 
year, and Q4 (ended 12/31/98) revenues 184% over last year.  
Though they are not profitable yet, this growth cannot be 
overlooked.  Volume is growing too as SONE trades 206K 
shares daily on average.  To boot, technically, SONE has a 
beautiful chart.  Momentum, stochastics and MACD are 
strongly positive.  They have no split history and earnings 
are not until May 11, but First Call consensus analysts' 
recommendation is a "strong buy".  This is a momentum play 
only.  Wait for positive market, Internet sector, and stock 
direction before jumping in.  It's volatile and options are 
thinly traded.

No news since Royal Bank announcement February 25.

BUY CALL MAR-65 QFB-CM OI=201 at $8.75 SL=6.50 ITM 5.00
BUY CALL MAR-70*QFB-CN OI= 51 at $6.00 SL=4.25 ATM
BUY CALL MAR-75 QFB-CO OI=  0 at $4.25 SL=2.75 RISKY! no OI.
BUY CALL APR-70 QFB-DN OI= 75 at $9.63 SL=7.25 more time
BUY CALL APR-75 QFB-DO OI=  1 AT $7.63 SL=5.75  

Average daily volume: 206k




ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch $80.75 (+4.75 for this wk)(+4.94)

Abercrombie & Fitch sells men's and women's casual clothes 
and accessories in over 170 stores across America.  Their 
comfortable styles of jeans and crews are especially popular 
with teens and college students.  Check out this Volkswagen 
hip-hop retailer the next time you are strolling through 
the mall.

We initially had been playing ANF as it made its pre-earnings
announcement run.  The retail sector had been particularly 
strong and ANF was expected to report blow out earnings.  Well, 
their numbers crushed every analyst estimate.  But, we dropped 
ANF as a play the week after they announced since the company 
seemed to be stuck in a 6 point trading range.  Today, it 
finally broke out and reached a new all time high of $82.94.  
The previous all time high and resistance level had been at 
$79.38.  Old resistance should become support as ANF is open
to run after its recent consolidation.

News:  On Tuesday, BT Alex Brown reiterated their "strong buy" 
rating on ANF.  This adds support to Goldman Sachs' 12-18 month 
price target of $95.  Analysts have touted the company as a 
sector leader and they forecast that ANF's earnings will 
continue to grow at the rate of 30%.

BUY CALL MAR-75 ANF-CO OI= 846 at $7.63 SL=5.75
BUY CALL MAR-80*ANF-CP OI=1889 at $4.38 SL=2.75
BUY CALL MAR-85 ANF-CQ OI= 114 at $2.06 SL=1.00
BUY CALL APR-85 ANF-DQ OI=  74 at $4.75 SL=3.25
BUY CALL MAY-80 ANF-EP OI=  83 at $9.25 SL=7.25 

Picked on January 26th at $80.75      PE= 38
Change since picked      +$ 0.00      52 week low =$29.50
Analysts Ratings      11-3-1-0-0      52 week high=$82.94
Last earnings 02/99 est 0.68   actual 1.12 surprise=+65% 
Next earnings 05-18 est 0.16   versus 0.12
Average Daily Volume = 483.1 K
Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ANF&d=3m


NXLK - Nextlink Comm. $51.50 +2.00 (+5.75 for this week)

Nextlink Communications is a local exchange carrier that provides 
telecommunication services via its own fiber-optic network.  
They provide switched local and long distance services to 
primarily small to medium-sized businesses in 26 markets in 
8 states.  Future networks are under development in Atlanta, 
New York City, and San Francisco.

This company is on the move.  It had a small earnings run before
they reported on February 23rd.  The 4Q earnings reported revenues 
setting a new high at 43.3 mln. This is a 92% increase from the
year before!  This stock is one of the few that continues it's 
upward momentum after an earnings report.  Even in a bearish 
environment NXLK has gained over 10 points in the past week
pushing it past its previous resistance near $46.  Considering
the recent market atmosphere this is impressive.  

Feb 19th, Lehman Brothers started NXLK with a "buy".
Investors seem to be buying with enthusiasm after NXLK's 
earnings announcement and record customer growth.

BUY CALL MAR-45 QNF-CI OI=175 at $ 8.13 SL=6.25
BUY CALL MAR-50*QNF-CJ OI=362 at $ 5.00 SL=3.25
BUY CALL APR-50 QNF-DJ OI=130 at $ 7.13 SL=5.25
BYU CALL JUL-50 QNF-GJ OI=200 at $11.50 SL=9.00

Chart = htpp://quote.yahoo.com/q?NXLK&d=3m

INTC - Intel Corporation $109.81 -7.25 (-10.13 for the week)

Intel designs, manufactures, and markets microprocessors - 
its star performer is the Pentium. It has been providing the
microcomputer components for IBM-compatible PCs since 1981. 

With an overwhelming 85% of the market share, Intel is 
dominant in the industry.  It's no wonder why the US government 
is outlining a potential anti-trust case against them as a
monopolist.  This news on Monday and its downgrade by DLJ 
sent Intel on a downward spiral. The increasingly bearish 
outlook for the technology group and the prospect of weakening 
results because of soft sales in the PC industry set the 
stage for a skirmish. And today, the freefall picked up more
speed as NB Montgomery announced a downgrade from buy to hold 
amid the last hour of trading with INTC losing another 3+ points 
before it closed down -7.25. Also in the news, The Associated 
Press confirmed a report (February 26th) by the research company, 
PC Data, that consumers bought more computers in January with 
semi-conductors made by Advanced Micro Devices than Intel.    

Joseph Barthel, CIS at Fahnestock & Co., seemed to sum it up 
quite well. Intel "stole Wall Street's focus" and "cut the 
legs out from under the tech rally that was started by HWP" 
today.  One broker went on to say that money in Intel was 
basically dead weight and put a value of $100 on the stock.

BUY PUT MAR-110 INQ-OB OI= 6092 at $5.25 SL=3.50
BUY PUT MAR-115 INQ-OC OI=11080 at $8.25 SL=6.25 


Still Moving Sideways...

Monday, March 1

Stocks ended mixed Monday in a slow trading session as concerns
about the direction of interest rates and high-flying technology
stocks sidelined many investors. The DJIA ended up 18 points at
9324. The Nasdaq, heavy with technology stocks, ended up 7 points
at 2295, achieving a small gain despite concerns about valuation
and future growth. In the broader market, declining issues led
advances 15 to 13 on turnover of 694 million shares on the NYSE.

Sunday's new plays:

MNMD	MAR115C/MAR110C $0.31 Credit (Gapped $10 at the open!)
BGEN	MAR80P/MAR85P   $0.75 Credit (Nice steady climb)
CNXT	APR17C/MAR17C   $0.56 Debit  (fell lower from the start)
ALLC	MAR17P/MAR17C   $1.75 Credit (Big move for the dividend)
CKH	MAR45P/MAR40P   $3.43 Debit  (Oil sector rebounded)

MNMD gapped up $10 at the open, taking away any possibility for
a momentum play. The credit spread entry was available for about
10 minutes at $0.31. BGEN was an easy entry at $0.75 and moved
steadily higher throughout the day. CNXT dropped lower from the
open and CKH was basically flat. ALLC moved almost $2 higher and
forced us to increase our initial position ($1.75 average basis)
on the first day. It has us worried already but the dividend run
should falter eventually.

Other portfolio positions:

INTC was hit hard by news that Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette
lowered its rating based on the expectation of reduced growth.
This sealed our fate in the put-credit spread so we bought the
short position (MAR20P) at $6.25 and will hold the long option
until the stock (sector?!?) shows some strength. Our new target 
for the MAR115P will be $5.50 (to break-even in the play). We
also closed the other INTC (debit) spread to reduce our losses.
We rolled two of the debit positions that were identified last
Sunday. The first was OMPT; we sold the MAR12C for $0.75. T is
also very bearish so we closed the MAR85 calls at $2.00 and
opened a new spread (MAR95C/85C) at a credit of 1.81. The NXTL
debit spread was also closed at $4.12 for a small profit.

Tuesday, March 2

Stocks ended lower Tuesday as Wall Street's jitters about the
outlook for technology stocks continued. Even with a rally in
transportation issues, the DJIA was off 27 points at 9297 after
giving back an early gain of nearly 100 points. Excitement over
Hewlett-Packard's plan to split into two companies failed to
help the Nasdaq and that index also finished down 36 points at
2259. In the broader market, declining issues led advances by a
small margin on active volume of 748 million shares on the NYSE.

Portfolio plays:

The first profitable exit was the MCD debit spread (MAR75C/80C),
closed for $4.50 credit. RNWK climbed to just above $87 and the
bullish portion of the spread/strangle was closed at $4.50 to
pay for the entire play. The bearish spread still exists but we
will need a fair correction to sell that position for any profit.
The INTC credit spread was closed at a "wash" as the stock price
continued its fall. A higher target would have given us a profit
but our goal in those situations is to just break-even. The GTSG
debit straddle was closed at $12.50 credit, a $2.50 profit for
the entire play. We finally sold the TSM (Put) position for the
recommended exit of $1.12.
				- NEW PLAYS -
ATHM - AtHome Corp.  $115.56     *** Split Announcement ***

At Home uses cable TV systems to provide high-speed Internet and
other online services to consumers and businesses, with network
technology capable of delivering data about 100 times faster than
traditional telephone modems. At Home teams with other companies
to provide its services and has partnerships that give it access
to about 50 million North American homes passed by cable. The
company will grow significantly with its purchase of Excite, the
second-largest Internet directory.

Shares of AtHome rose $8.43 today after the company said it plans
to split its stock 2-for-1. The announcement was somewhat expected
but the split requires shareholder approval and the meeting is not
expected to occur for a few months. We all know about the basic
split synopsis; stock price up on the announcement with another
dip before the actual split-run. Technically, this stock has very
little chance of holding near the sold strike in 17 days.

PLAY (conservative/credit spread):

BUY  CALL MAR-135 AHQ-CW OI=70  A=$2.12
SELL CALL MAR-130 AHQ-CV OI=445 B=$2.62

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ATHM&d=3m
VISX - Visx Inc.  $80.00  *** Technicals Only ***

VISX makes a laser vision-correction system designed to recontour
the surface of the cornea of the eye. The VISX system enables
ophthalmologists to treat various vision problems and pathological
vision disorders.

VISX blasted almost $20 higher after saying strong demand for its
Star S2 excimer laser system will lead to Q1 EPS between $0.51 and
$0.55, well ahead of the $0.36 the company said analysts had been
expecting. BancBoston Robertson Stephens raised its opinion of the
firm to "buy" from "long-term attractive" and boosted its fiscal
1999 revenue projection 32% to $218 million. Dain Rauscher Wessels
also said that it has reinitiated coverage of VISX with a "strong
buy - aggressive" rating. He said VISX is the dominant company in
the rapidly growing laser vision correction industry.

Regardless of how popular the company is right now, the stock will
try to fill the gap at some point. It may not be tomorrow so watch
for signs of selling pressure before entering the position. The
PUT option buyers are out-in-force (mainly OTM) so use that volume
to your advantage when opening the play. As the stock price moves
toward the long position, the time premium will increase the value
of the option so plan to close the spread after a small profit has
been achieved.

PLAY (aggressive/debit spread):

BUY  PUT MAR-75 VSQ-OO OI=0 V=41  A=$2.81
SELL PUT MAR-70 VSQ-ON OI=0 V=387 B=$1.43

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=VISX&d=3m
UAL - United Airlines  $65.38     *** LEAPS/Covered-Calls ***

UAL is the holding company for United Airlines, the #1 air carrier
in the world. United flies nearly 500 jets to destinations in the
US and 29 other countries. United Express connects passengers from
regional carriers to United's system. UAL also operates Shuttle by
United, offering more than 460 daily short-haul flights to western
US cities. Employees own 55% of UAL, making it one of the world's
largest employee-controlled companies.

Airline stocks took-off Tuesday after Goldman Sachs upgraded the
sector with the expectation that it will outperform the market
over the next three months. They said an increase in the National
Association of Purchasing Management index (a great lead indicator
for business travel) helped to convince them the sector was due
for a rebound (Airline stocks were beaten down over the past year
and many have been trading well below their year-ago levels).

Transportation analysts have been slowly raising their earnings
estimates for the sector and after the Goldman upgrade, experts
believe there will be more upward revisions as the week unfolds.

PLAY (conservative/calendar spread):

BUY  CALL JAN00-65 LUA-AM OI=752  A=$12.12
SELL CALL MAR-65   UAL-CM OI=2171 B=$2.19

Note: In the long-term calendar spread, we are reducing the net
cost of the long option by the amount of credit from the sale of
the nearer-term option. If the near-term call expires worthless,
we will sell the APR call to further reduce our debit. If the
short-term position is ITM on the last day of the strike, you
need to buy it back so that you DON'T have to exercise the long
term position. In that case, your long position is going up in
value also and on the last day of the strike period, the short
call will shrink down to intrinsic value so you should be ahead
in the play even after you buy it back.

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ual&d=3m

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