Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/25/1999

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The Option Investor Newsletter         Thursday  3-25-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings.
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        3-25-99           High     Low    Volume  Advances Decline
DOW     9836.39 +169.55  9841.94  9664.90  782,714k  1,887   1,048
Nasdaq  2434.89 + 69.61  2434.89  2399.72  936,856k  2,362   1,543 
S&P-100  647.53 + 12.03   647.57   635.50   Totals   4,249   2,591
S&P-500 1289.99 + 21.40  1290.01  1268.59            62.1%   37.9%
$RUT     392.99 +  8.59   392.99   384.40
$TRAN   3289.70 + 83.05  3298.26  3208.47
VIX       25.44 -   .87    27.17    25.44
Put/Call Ratio      .52

The market quickly turned its attention from war to profits.

Very strong earnings from Morgan Stanley riveted the market
focus back on the coming earnings season and away from the
Kosovo war. The worries that a bigger country, Russia, would
raise the stakes by siding with Yugoslavia and adding their
firepower, have calmed. Russia said they would not resort to
force to resolve the dispute but would attempt to influence
the outcome diplomatically. The sigh of relief was registered
in dollar signs on Wall Street. The market does not like
uncertainty or war. The feeling that we have now settled into
a another "remote control" war of attrition, put traders back
into a buying mood. 

Morgan Stanley announced that profits surged +81% in the first
quarter. The $1.76 earnings beat analyst's estimates of $1.34
easily. They said they plan to hire 1,000 new agents to handle
the new business. This powered the brokerage sector as traders
raced to position themselves in other stocks they expect to
beat estimates also. 

Internet stocks caught fire again as NationsBank Montgomery
initiated coverage of AOL, LCOS, ATHM, YHOO, AMZN, VRIO, XOOM,
XCIT and SEEK with "buy" ratings. Also AOL and EBAY inked a 
joint marketing deal. Analysts liked the deal and both were
up strong. AOL +9.38 and EBAY +14. Although not mentioned
directly the upgrades propelled CMGI to a +11.06 gain. Now up
+23.44 since we added the play on Tuesday night!

Microsoft blasted off with hopes that they could reach a 
settlement with the Justice Department and their coming split.
Up +8.69 today even though both parties say they are far apart.

EMC set another new all time high today at $124.06 adding
+5.19 today on top of the +$5.00 yesterday. Now in breakout
mode again! Watch for profit taking here.

Just like the Dow was due to correct after the +750 point
run two weeks ago, the Dow and Nasdaq were also due to snap
back after the recent -500 point drop. Everything runs in 
cycles and this is a clear example. Even though we are back
to within 163 points of the D10K hoopla again it does not mean
everything is fine.  38 of the last 44 days the daily new lows
have beat the new highs. The advance/decline line set a new
low yesterday. This indicator was strongly positive today
by a 6 to 4 margin but one day does not make a trend!

We are now sitting on a big one day gain in the Dow but an
even bigger two day gain on the Nasdaq. With a war in progress
the odds of profit taking Friday afternoon are very strong.
Fear of weekend darkness is enhanced by global unrest. Set 
your sell stops and lock in the profit from the past two

On Tuesday I commented on how nice it was to be in cash and
that I had made money in the down market Monday/Tuesday. I 
was accosted by several emails asking how I made money in
a down market when "I" was recommending calls on MSFT, EMC
and others on Sunday. This is a recurring nightmare and if
you have heard this before please skip to the next section.

If I could convince readers of any one thing, it would be...

The plays we list are stocks that have a better than 75%
chance of making a big move in the next five days, "MARKET
PERMITTING". The market does not run on the same Sun/Tue/Thr
cycle as the newsletter. If you bet against the market YOU
WILL LOSE.  If you have been a subscriber for long, you know
we preach "trend trading". We feel that stocks move in cycles
with the market. 3, 5, 8 days up, 1, 3, 5 days down, repeat.
It is up to you as an informed, intelligent investor to wait
for an entry point before making a trade. Entry point would
be defined as a pullback from a previous upward move. For
example EMC would not be a good play for tomorrow. Up over
+$10 in the last two days it is now a good candidate for a
pullback on profit taking. EMC is a great stock, making great
moves, BUT you can still lose money every week if you buy
at the top and get stopped out when profit taking occurs. I
had an email from a reader last week who was losing money
on EMC every week, asking what he was doing wrong. The same 
time we got dozens of emails telling about how much money 
they made in EMC. What is the difference?   TIMING !!! 
Patience, patience, patience. Successful investors wait for
and entry point and sell too soon. Then they wait for the
next entry point to repeat the process. If your trading
plan is "to trade only when profitable" then you need to
practice this technique. 

For instance, I opened a position in OEX PUTS after the 
failed rally last Friday. I closed it Tuesday, (too soon)
for a 60% profit. Wednesday I opened a position in CMGI
CALLS when the market appeared to turn around and closed
it today (too soon) for a 50% profit. Two plays, five days,
110% profit. I am back in cash and waiting for the next
entry point for several plays I am following. The gap open
this morning killed three plays I wanted to open today. 
(EMC, EBAY, AOL) After the big starts I passed on the plays
for today. Better a missed play than a bad play. The point
of course is wait, watch, plan. If it goes according to 
your plan then execute. Otherwise, wait, watch, and plan.

Good Luck,

Jim Brown

Tomorrow is the last chance to send us the trades for 
the trading contest.


Market Posture
As of Market Close - Thursday, March 25, 1999 

                   Key Benchmarks
Broad Market       Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert

DOW Industrials    9,500  10,000   9,836    Neutral   3.19
SPX S&P 500        1,250   1,325   1,290    Neutral   3.19
OEX S&P 100          630     660     647    Neutral   3.19
RUT Russell 2000     400     435     393    BEARISH   3.12

NDX NASD 100       2,000   2,100   2,083    Neutral   3.25  *
MSH High Tech        900   1,000     992    Neutral   3.19

                   Key Benchmarks
Technology         Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
XCI Hardware         800     900     872    Neutral   3.5
CWX Software         600     650     644    Neutral   3.5
SOX Semiconductor    350     420     370    Neutral   3.5
NWX Networking       420     450     439    Neutral   3.4
INX Internet         500     570     548    Neutral   2.19

                   Key Benchmarks
Financial          Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
BIX Banking          675     710     680    Neutral   3.19 
XBD Brokerage        700     825     796    Neutral   3.19
IUX Insurance        630     655     634    Neutral   3.19

                   Key Benchmarks
Other              Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
RLX Retail           875     940     905    Neutral   3.19
DRG Drug             800     835     800    Neutral   3.25  *
HCX Healthcare       775     835     800    Neutral   3.25  *
XAL Airline          340     365     347    Neutral   3.25  *
OIX Oil & Gas        245     260     255    Neutral   3.19

Posture Alert

Positive earnings news and the muted reaction to NATO air 
strikes sparked a broad market rally.  After closing above
key near-term benchmarks, we have turned Neutral again
across select industry sectors including Drug, Healthcare
and Airlines.

A detailed description of our Market Posture and its
applications can be found at:


Market Sentiment - By Pinnacle Capital Advisors

Just Don't Do It

The dip may look good, smell good and even feel good - but don't 
do it. This is just where investors will be tempted to jump on
the dip - after a strong relief rally.  Our trusted technical
and sentiment indicators suggest that we remain in a high risk
area.  While the Market Volatility Index (VIX) snapped back
below its 50-day moving average - a bullish development - we
still have too many factors in the Bearish camp especially in
the midst of earning warnings season.


Top Reversal              Several industry sectors revealed 
                          Tweezer top candlestick formation on 
                          Friday (3/19)

Peak Open Interest        April peak open interest - .76

Interest Rates            Bouncing off 200dma and holding above
                          important 5.50% level (5.58%)

Russell 2000              Breaking below key 400 level.  Generals  
                          leading but troops are not following.

Advance/Decline Line      Deteriorating A/D line. 

Pinnacle Index            Climbing for S&P 100


Market Volatility (VIX)   Trading BELOW 50-day moving average

OTM Call Analysis

Shown below is an analysis of the open interest at OTM call 
option (650-700). As documented all last week, out-of-the money
(OTM) call buying reached extreme levels and contributed,
in part, to the precipitous sell-off on Friday (3/19) and Tuesday (3/23).  

As we move into April's expiration cycle, Pinnacle is tracking 
the level of call buying (OTM) between 650-700 among option
speculators.  Notice the jump in the OTM call open interest
during the last sell-off.

OEX OTM Call Analysis (Open Interest MAR 650-700)
Date                 Open Interest     Change %    Alert
Friday, March 5             58,085         -
Thursday, March 11          65,569      +12.9%
Friday, March 12            68,675      +18.2%
Tuesday, March 16           79,480      +37.8%      
Thursday, March 18          85,124      +47.6%     *    

OEX OTM Call Analysis (Open Interest Apr 650-700)
Date                 Open Interest     Change %    Alert
Friday, March 19            35,626         -
Tuesday, March 23           48,953        37.4%    
Thursday, March 25          59,266        66.4%    *

Market Sentiment at a Glance
                                Friday     Tues      Thurs  
Indicator                       (3/19)     (3/23)    (3/25)  Alert

Pinnacle Index (OEX):          
Overhead Resistance (650-665)     1.7         1.3         1.9    
Underlying Support  (625-640)     1.0         1.4         1.3

Put/Call Ratios:
CBOE Total P/C Ratio               .6          .5         .7
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio              .4          .4         .5   *   
OEX P/C Ratio                     1.3         1.3        1.1   *                

Peak Open Interest (OEX):
Puts                              630         640        620
Calls                             700         700        700
P/C Ratio                        .63         .65         .76

Market Volatility Index (VIX):	
CBOE VIX                        25.95       29.11       25.56  *

Investors Intelligence:
Bullish                         52.6%       52.6%       55.9%  *  
Bearish                         17.6%       17.6%       29.7%  *

The Power of Sentiment Analysis

It has often been said that the crowd is right during the
market trends but wrong at both ends.  Measuring and
evaluating the sentiment of the crowd, therefore, can give
savvy option traders a decided edge.

Pinnacle Index
OEX                             Friday       Tues       Thurs
Benchmark                       (3/19)      (3/23)      (3/25)
                    (660-665)      5.4         3.1        4.8
                    (650-655)       .9          .8        1.2
Overhead Resistance (650-665)      1.7         1.3        1.9

OEX Close                       650.11      631.90     647.53  

Underlying Support  (625-640)      1.0         1.4        1.3
                    (635-640)       .9         1.4        1.2
                    (625-630)      1.0         1.3        1.4

Average ratings: 
Resistance levels 2.0 / Support .5

What the Pinnacle Index is telling us:
Overhead sentiment resistance is building at the OEX 650/665
level while the underlying support is weak at the
OEX 625/640 level.

Put/Call Ratio 
                                Friday      Tues       Thurs
Strike/Contracts                 (3/19)     (3/23)     (3/25)
CBOE Total P/C Ratio               .62         .49         .66
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio              .43         .40         .49
OEX P/C Ratio                     1.31        1.33        1.13

Peak Open Interest (OEX)
                     Friday         Tues           Thurs
Strike/Contracts     (3/19)         (3/23)         (3/25)
Puts                 630 / 5,622    640 /  7,217    620 /  8,212
Calls                700 / 8,916    700 / 11,191    700 / 10,809
Put/Call Ratio       .63            .65             .76

Market Volatility Index (VIX)
Date                Turning Point       VIX
October 97          Bottom              54.60      
July 20, 1998       Top                 16.88         
October 8, 1998     Bottom              60.63
January 11, 1998    Top                 26.38
March 4, 1999       Bottom              28.15   

March 19, 1999                          25.84  
March 23, 1999                          29.11          
March 25, 1999                          25.56          

Investors Intelligence Survey
                    Major             Percent     Percent
Date                Turning Point     Bullish     Bearish
October 97          Bottom            22.0        48.3       
July 20, 1998       Top               52.0        24.0         
October 8, 1998     Bottom            38.5        42.7
January 11, 1999    Top               58.3        30.0

January   6, 1999                     58.3        30.0   
January  13, 1999                     60.0        30.0   
January  20, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
January  27, 1999                     60.7        28.2   

February  3, 1999                     60.0        26.7   
February 10, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
February 17, 1999                     55.7        28.7   
February 24, 1999                     54.1        31.5   

March 3, 1999                         50.9        32.1   
March 10, 1999                        49.1        32.5   
March 17, 1999                        52.6        17.6     
March 24, 1999                        55.9        29.7  *   

Please view this in COURIER 10 font for alignment

Index    Last   Mon     Tue   Wed   Thur   Week
Dow    9836.39-13.04 -218.68 -4.99 169.55 -67.16
Nasdaq 2434.80-25.33  -73.10 42.44  69.52  13.53
$OEX    647.53 -0.56  -17.65  3.60  12.03  -2.58
$SPX   1289.99 -2.28  -34.87  6.45  21.40  -9.30
$RUT    392.99 -3.38   -9.83  1.03   8.59  -3.59
$TRAN  3289.70-62.80  -80.57 11.54  83.05 -48.78
$VIX     25.44  0.81    2.46 -0.80  -0.87   1.60

Stock          Mon   Tue   Wed  Thur  Week

QCOM   98.44  3.06  -5.50  5.25 11.06 13.87 New deal for CDMA
MSFT  179.94  1.63  -6.25  4.69  8.69  8.76 Splits 2:1 tomorrow
AOL   126.50 10.75  -8.88 -3.88  9.38  7.37 Upgraded again
EMC   124.06 -2.50  -1.88  5.00  5.19  5.81 New super stock
TLAB   95.56 -1.25  -4.25  4.56  4.38  3.44 Earnings are soon
CMGI  187.44 -6.06 -14.00 12.38 11.06  3.38 Up $23 since picked
WHR    51.38 -1.00   1.94  0.25  1.19  2.38 New play, outlook good
G      64.25  0.63  -0.88  0.19  2.31  2.25 Broke out today
MWD   103.88 -5.25   1.50  0.50  5.50  2.25 Beat Estimates
OMC    75.19  1.63  -2.06  1.06  0.63  1.26 Won $80 mln contract
SCH    90.50 -0.50  -4.13 -0.63  6.13  0.87 Brokers are back
FSR    93.06  0.00  -0.50 -0.19  1.13  0.44 Splits 3:1 in April
LOW    63.38 -2.38  -2.00  0.63  3.38 -0.37 Big jump today
WCOM   91.00 -2.75  -2.75  2.38  2.63 -0.49 Rebounding
AHP    65.25  1.13  -3.31  0.69  0.94 -0.55 Momentun turning
JPM   122.13  3.31  -3.56 -0.44 -0.31 -1.00 Dropped, not moving
C      63.00 -0.63  -2.50 -1.00  2.88 -1.25 Wait for confirmation
INSS   65.00  1.75  -1.50 -1.94 -0.06 -1.75 Possible bottom
WMT    91.88 -1.44  -2.81 -1.50  2.88 -2.87 Waking up!
PFE   137.75  2.31  -3.81 -1.13 -0.38 -3.01 Dropped, not moving
MER    87.56 -0.81  -4.25 -0.44  2.31 -3.19 Brokers are back
GE    108.50 -1.63  -3.81  0.19  1.75 -3.50 Confirm stock movement
BVSN   59.00 -1.25  -1.88 -5.75  1.88 -7.00 Look for confirmation
RFMD   85.50 -0.13  -9.25 -3.00  2.75 -9.63 On probation, wait
RNWK  119.00 -6.56 -17.19 -3.38  4.38 -22.75Is the profit-taking over?


NEON   55.00  0.19  -2.31 -4.88  3.00 -4.00 Market reaction only
CTXS   74.06 -5.87  -3.88  1.06  5.00 -3.69 Splits today
EMR    54.19 -0.50  -1.62 -0.32  0.13 -2.31 New put, bleak outlook
LHSG   35.88 -1.13  -1.63 -0.25  1.25 -1.76 Market reaction only
CMB    81.50 -0.62  -2.32 -0.19  2.13 -1.00 Market reaction only
LLY    86.50 -2.38  -0.87  1.50  0.81 -0.94 Market reaction only
CPQ    31.50 -0.63   0.50  0.81  0.06  0.74 Dropped, not moving
SBUX   29.13  1.66  -1.06  0.44  0.06  1.10 Dropped, not moving
BMCS   35.19 -1.50   0.69  0.75  1.25  1.19 Dropped, upgraded
GIS    75.88  0.69   0.13  1.06  0.00  1.88 No participation in rally
IBM   171.31 -1.56  -1.63  4.13  1.81  2.75 Dropped, no warning
CGX    51.50 -0.69  -0.31  5.63 -0.63  4.00 Dropped, upgraded
LXK    94.63 -1.06  -1.88  6.06  3.00  6.12 Dropped, it has revived

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time. 
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


JPM $122.13 -.31 (-1.00) We certainly didn't anticipate JPM to 
just hunker down on its new support of $121-122 and watch 
the world goes by. A financial giant that fails to participate 
in the great rally we had today deserves to be dropped. We 
expected much better results from this play.

PFE $137.75 -.38 (-3.00)  PFE has shown no strength in the market 
over the past two days - even today it dropped -0.38.  And 
with the vote for the pending 3:1 stock split weeks away 
(4-22-99), we have to drop this stock.  If it picks up steam 
in anticipation of the powerful split, look for OI to add it 
back as a play.


IBM $171.44 1.81 (+2.88)  The supply deal put the nails in the 
coffin on this put play.  The announcement on Wednesday by 
IBM to shift from hardware to services & software and sell 
3 bln in disk drives to rival EMC drove its share price 
up +5.69.  This business strategy should boost the company's 
profits overall.  However, it is still possible for IBM to 
prewarn for 1Q earnings which would give us the drop we were
looking for.

CPQ $31.50 0.06 (+0.75)  The supply deal between IBM and EMC 
nudged the computer hardware group ahead over the past two 
days. And so, on the heels of IBM, Compaq made small gains. 
The advances may be small and CPQ could still forecast 
a poor 1Q earnings, but time is money and were dropping this 

SBUX $29.13 +0.06 (+1.10)  As we predicted, SBUX rebounded 
slightly on Wednesday.  But on Thursday, SBUX traded in the 
red almost all day. When the market made a final surge near 
the close, SBUX couldn't help but be dragged into the green 
for a six cent gain.  Even though we feel the markets will 
pull back in the near future and that SBUX could follow, the 
company isn't moving fast enough for us to keep it as a play.  
There are much bigger movers out there and we now feel your 
money is better invested elsewhere.  

BMCS $35.19 +1.25 (+1.19) Sometimes, it doesn't matter how 
ugly a chart gets.  It can be reversed quickly with the 
dreaded upgrade.  That's exactly what happened yesterday 
when DLJ issued a buy rating on BMCS causing volumes and 
thus prices to rise over the last 2 days.  It completely 
overshadowed the class action lawsuits and the ailing 
fundamentals of the business.  Sorry to say, we're dropping 
it tonight.  

LXK $94.63 +3.00 (+6.13) We hope you used stops.  There is 
no news on any of the wires to explain the price reversal 
over the last 2 days.  Volume has remained above average 
and about the same as it was while LXK was descending.  The 
only clue may come from the 10-K issued before the open 
yesterday.  Examining the filing, we can not find what made 
investors so happy.  Nonetheless, with gains like this, we 
are dropping this hot potato tonight.

CGX $51.50 -0.63 (+4.00) Such is the problem with a low 
volume stock flying generally under most investors' radar.  
When someone decides to upgrade them, it can mean big
moves.  Morgan Stanley upped its rating yesterday to 
outperform, but a penny on the train track shouldn't cause 
a derailing like this.  Suffice it to say we're not waiting 
around to if this reversal sticks and are dropping CGX 

QCOM $98.44 +11.06 (+13.88)  QCOM is popping up faster than 
a bag of microwave popcorn!!  On Thursday, the company set a 
new all time high of $98.56 on the heels of news of its latest
agreements with Ericcson, a former rival.  The two companies 
finally ended their long running patent dispute and will 
actually work together to develop global wireless technologies.
Ericsson will also buy QCOM's terrestrial CDMA wireless 
business which was actually losing QCOM $40-50 mln a year.  
That equates to losses of almost 40 cents a share!  Investors 
were obviously ecstatic with the announcements and the stock 
jumped an amazing +$11.06.  With the huge gains, make sure to 
set your stop losses to protect those profits!   

MWD $104.06 +5.69 (+2.43) MWD announced earnings today before 
the opening bell and blew away analysts expectations.  The 
estimate was for $1.34 a share and they announced $1.76. 
The stock gapped open $5.00 though no stock split has yet
been announced.  Many companies have held off announcing
splits until the stock stumbles and needs a little boost.
MWD does have its shareholder meeting on April 9th.  MWD
closed near its high for the day, normally a bullish sign.
Watch for intra-day pullbacks as buying opportunities.

AOL $126.00 +8.88 (+6.75) NB Montgomery Securities issued a 
buy rating on AOL today with a price target of $155.  
Today's action more than made up for yesterday's $4 drop 
which was facilitated in part by another analysts 
downgrade.  In the news, it's confirmed, AOL will lay off 
up to 1000 people and take a charge to earnings in the wake 
of the Netscape acquisition.  It a result of the bigger 
plan to split AOL into 4 product groups to manage its core 
online business. The groups will focus on its AOL and 
CompuServe online services; independent Internet products; 
Netscape corporate software; and international operations 
(Reuters).  Wall Street cheered.  Here's something else to 
cheer about: e-bay will pay AOL $75 mln. over 4 years for 
prominent placement on AOL's site.  Next earnings are 4-27 
and AOL is in split territory.  Confirm market direction 
before playing.

***** Play updates continued in section two *****

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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education 
of options traders. The newsletter is an information service 
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed 
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The 
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation 
of any stock or option but an information resource to aid the
investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in 
options. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the 
editor and staff of The Option Investor Newsletter may own, 
buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult 
a qualified professional before trading in any security. The 
information provided has been obtained from sources deemed 
reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
The newsletter staff makes every effort to provide timely 
information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific 
delivery times due to factors beyond our control.

The Option Investor Newsletter         Thursday  3-25-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

PICK NEWS - CALLS (continued)

EMC $124.25 +5.38 (+6.00) Did you target shoot this one?  
We hope so as EMC gave us a bottom to top gain of $12, from 
$112 to $124 in 2 days.  EMC is looking pretty glamorous 
these days as the dominant player in data storage with over 
35% of the market.  In the news yesterday, it was announced 
that EMC will buy up to $3 bln. worth of disk drive 
technology from IBM over a 5-year pact, which will unlock a 
treasure trove of other technology for EMC to exploit.  Oh 
yes, did we mention new all time high with strong volume?  
Where other charts don't look so hot after yesterday's 
cooling off, EMC still shines.  They split 2:1 on May 28, 
but announce earnings prior to that on April 20.  Confirm 
market direction before playing. 

RNWK $119.00 +4.38 (-22.75)  RNWK took a dip with the rest
of the market early in the week, but has managed to get
back some of its losses.  It's not unusually to see some
profit taking on such large gains and it coincided with the
markets dip.  RNWK is still a possible takeover candidate,
though RNWK tries to avoid the question.  RNWK traded as high
as $126 today, before settling at $119.00.  For those that
use candlestick charting, RNWK showed a strong reversal
signal on Wednesday (Hammer).  

TLAB $95.56 +4.38 (+3.43)  TLAB had a nice two day gain of
close to $9.  TLAB is now just a few dollars from its 52-
week high.  TLAB's earnings are toward the end of April,
which might be an appropriate time to announce a stock
split.  In this kind of market, taking smaller gains is
a prudent strategy.  Many stocks will rise and fall by
several points throughout the month.   

CMGI $187.44 +11.06 (+3.00) CMGI is up just $3.00 for the
week, but is up $23.44 since we picked it on Tuesday.  CMGI
is still short about $30 from its 52-week high.  CMGI has
a stock split coming up, but it isn't until the end of May.
The $200 price could pose as some resistance, being that
CMGI has not closed above this mark.  Good stock to target

BVSN $59.00 +1.88 (-7.00) BVSN has not performed up to par
this week, but we are keeping it because we feel the $55
mark is a short-term bottom.  After a big move up in a short
time, a stock will often retrace 50% of its gains.  This puts
BVSN's retracement to $55.  This is a riskier play, because
BVSN is not showing its hand completely.  A bounce off the
$55 level could be buyable.  Otherwise, make sure BVSN has
made a decision to continue higher.  

WMT $91.88 +2.88 (-2.87) WMT dipped just below its 30 dma 
yesterday before bouncing higher, but still closed down $1.50 
yesterday. Today it arrested a dismal 4 day descent with a 
gap up at the open and a gain of $2.88 on good volume. Various 
technical indicators are poised to turn positive or are already 
turning positive again. If the market continues up, this stock, 
which splits April 19, will see higher ground. About the 
Teletubbies lawsuit, WMT has said that it required the Bubbly 
Chubby vendor to provide a legal opinion from a law firm that 
the toy did not infringe on any trademarks or copyrights before 
WMT would sell it.

MER $87.63 +2.38 (-3.12) After 4 days of declines, MER rose 
today following the outstanding first quarter earnings 
announcement from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Not only did MWD 
beat last year's first quarter, but they also topped First 
Call's estimates by a wide margin. That news sent the brokerages 
higher on expectations that they, too, will outperform estimates.
Chase Manhattan, meanwhile, has named Wm Harris as the replacement
for soon-to-retire Shipley, ending speculation that Shipley was 
dangling the CEO position as bait for a merger partner.

SCH $90.50 +6.13 (+.87) Like the other brokerages, Schwab rose 
in sympathy today with MWD on its blow-out earnings announcement.
Even though the brokerages have already had a powerful run and 
(until the last few days) have been setting new highs, analysts 
now believe that other brokers may have upside surprises as well
and they have room to move higher. SCH has already said that 
it will beat First Call's $.26/share estimate. SCH expects to 
earn $.31 to .$34/share. Today SCH was up a strong $6.13 and 
closed at the high of the day--a positive sign.

GE $108.50 +1.75 (-3.50) As the Dow turned positive, so did 
this huge Dow component. In fact, the stock rose $.19 even in 
yesterday's down market. It appears that the $105.00 level that 
provided resistance for so long has now become mild support for 
GE. Earnings are expected in less than 2 weeks and if the Dow 
cooperates, GE could see a bit of an earnings run (although 
nothing dramatic like the Internet and tech stocks often see.) 
NBC, a division of GE, is in negotiations with its affiliates. 
In markets where an agreement remains elusive, NBC is threatening 
to go to cable-only distribution.

G $64.25 +2.31 (+2.25) Breakout! Gillette closed at $64.25, 
$2.25 above resistance and right near the high of the day. We 
would have been happier if it had also closed above $64.38, 
the intra-day high it set on 3-23, and a possible source of 
slight resistance, but we will be content with what we got. 
Market permitting, G is now charged and ready to run. UP $2.25 
on the week so far.

RFMD $85.50 +2.75 (-9.63) RFMD lost $3.00 yesterday on heavy 
volume. Today it gained back $2.75, but on somewhat less than 
average volume. It initially gapped up and climbed to $90.75 
this morning, but lost $5.25 between then and market close. 
According to the company, it splits "on or about March 31", 
so it still has a few days left to run up. With such a long 
advance already in this stock and investors skittish after 
the market downdraft, be sure to use stops. If the stock climbs 
higher and then begins to decline before the split, investors 
will sell quickly to protect profits and possibly precipitate 
a sell-off.  Confirm direction before playing.

FSR $93.06 +1.13 (+0.43)  In yesterday's havoc, this stock 
held its own and only forfeited -0.19.  FSR closed on the up 
today and also above its new support level of around $91-92.  
Good news as we're looking for this stock to rally in 
anticipation of its 3:1 split on April 15th.  FSR is finding 
resistance at about $94-95. Some more bullish days like today 
and FSR could pop right over this mark.  

AHP $65.25 +0.94 (-0.56)  AHP has edged higher for two days 
in a row.  After being hit with a -$3.31 loss on Tuesday, it 
is nice to see AHP recovering the deficit.  It is now showing 
the beginning of another uptrend that could continue back up 
to its all time high of $68.19.  The only question is what the 
markets will do in light of circumstances like the war and next
Tuesday's Fed meeting.  Stop losses, as always, are all 
important.  In other news, AHP seemed to shrug off the FDA's 
approval of Duramed's estrogen replacement drug called Cenestin.  
The new drug will be available within 90 days and could provide 
some competition for AHP's Premarin. 

INSS $65.00 -0.06 (-1.75)  INSS has traded down for the past 
three days in a row.  When the markets rallied on Thursday, 
INSS still decided to do its own thing and fell even lower.  
Normally this is a bad sign.  However, this could also be a 
chance to buy at cheaper prices.  INSS is splitting 3:2 on 
April 5th.  The two weeks before the actual split are usually 
filled with the most activity.  We would like to see INSS 
finish trading in the green before suggesting hopping into 
new positions. However, today may have been the bottom.  Check
out a 10 day graph.

LOW $63.38 +3.38 (-0.37)  LOW tucked a sizable chunk of change 
into its pocket as it added +$3.38 in trading on Thursday.  
The markets rallied and LOW was there to collect.  No new news 
was responsible for the gains and the bump up seems to have 
stemmed solely from the actions of the market.  Make sure to 
set your stop losses in case those same markets decide to 
pull back before the weekend. 

OMC $75.19 +0.63 (+1.25)  On Wednesday, one of OMC's affiliates 
was awarded a huge advertising contract.  Omnicom's Goodby, 
Silverstein & Partners was approved to handle Discover Card's 
$80 million advertising account.  OMC jumped +$1.06 on the news 
and continued adding gains on Thursday.  OMC is now back on 
track after Tuesday's slight setback.  

WCOM $91.00 +2.63 (-0.50)  WCOM was rollin' on Thursday.  CNBC 
may have provided some of the momentum behind the +$2.63 gain.  
They made mention of an increased price target for the company 
at the $100 level, up from the previous target of $95.  The 
rallying markets may have provided the rest of the momentum.  
As we expected, WCOM bounced off its 30 dma and headed back 
up.  Looks like we have the green signal.  However, watch for 
a slight pullback tomorrow if the markets decide to return 
some of Thursday's gains.

C $62.88 +2.75 (-1.37) C is on a consumer credit 
acquisition spree.  Individually, these seem 
inconsequential.  Together, today's announcement of 
purchase of Source One Mortgage, yesterday's announcement 
of acquiring Mellon Bank' credit card assets, recent 
acquisitions of offices and a loan portfolio from The 
Associates plus Chilean consumer finance company, 
Fiananciero Atlas, you have news.  Share buybacks and 
upgrades have boosted buying interest as volume is above 
average.  Today's price and volume recovery was good to 
see.  Market willing, C will flex its muscles ahead of 
other financial institutions.  Play only in a rising market 
and set your stops to protect profits.

MSFT $179.94 +8.69 (+8.75) Finally, definitive word leaked 
out (ok, was announced) that MSFT would enter settlement 
negotiations with DOJ next Tuesday.  The market cheered 
today by tacking on $8.69 to MSFT's price (not to mention 
the $5 rise yesterday) setting a new all time high.  This 
news may serve to prop up the price after the split 
following tomorrow's close.  We may not see the post split 
depression until the first news trickles out of the 
settlement negotiations.  Even so, the "rules" say sell 
before the split since 7 of 10 splitters will drop 
following the split date.  If you play MSFT tomorrow, 
confirm upward market direction first.  Depending on your 
risk profile, we still recommend selling by the close 


CTXS $74.06 +5.00 (-3.69)  CTXS split 2:1 after today's bell.
Kudos to the conservative players!  CTXS made a pre-split 
rally the past two days gaining +6.06 in an attempt to recoup 
its devastating losses from last Friday.  The stock didn't 
quite make it and is off -3.69 in that regard. It is also 
still positioned below the bearish 200 dma. A stock 
generally goes through a post-split depression.  Think about 
trying to catch these possible losses.  Watch the stock's 
direction before starting a new play and set your stops.

NEON $55.00 +3.00 (-4.00)  NEON performed exceptionally well 
on Wednesday and lost -4.88 trading in heavy volume.  
Apparently, the company's announcement of their win of the 
prestigious Best of Show Award presented by Open Systems 
Advisors, an IT research company, had no positive effect on 
the stock.  Today the stock followed the mighty momentum of 
the Nasdaq and added on 3 points by the close.  Three 
technical indicators the MACD, Momentum, and Stochastic all 
show down ticks for NEON.  This is a definitive bearish signal
and we expect that this stock will continue its descent. 

LLY $86.50 +0.81 (-0.94)  Alright, LLY did gain a little 
over 2 points since Tuesday, but it did not rally with the 
Dow today!  The advance on Wednesday may have been on the 
news from IMS Health, a data research company.  They listed 
Eli Lilly in the top ten for global pharmaceutical sales -
certainly an achievement to be recognized.  Nevertheless, 
today LLY proved it couldn't get pumped up and only hit 
$87.13 in intraday trading.  This may be a very bearish 
premonition of more to come.  Confirm stock direction before

CMB $81.50 +2.13 (-1.00) CMB rose well today, mainly from
the news of great earnings from Morgan Stanley.  This type
of gain is usually very short lived.  CMB's 50-dma is at 
$78.75.  This will act as support.  A break through this
level would be very bearish.  CMB is still looking for a
partner, but unless the deal is just right, its stock will
suffer from a takeover bid.

GIS $75.88 +0.00 (+1.88) GIS has gone up overall this week
and we are keeping it because it made no progress on a very
strong day.  GIS has dropped a good bit in the last few weeks
and we feel the bump this week was just a bump.  GIS bounced
down from its 10-dma and has room to continue its slide.

LHSG $35.88 +1.25 (-1.75) Descent to purgatory?  Yes.  Only 
LHSG climbed up 1 wrung in today's action on higher than 
average volume that raised our eyebrow a bit.  We cautioned 
of a possible dead cat bounce on Tuesday, but the stock 
trend is still down.  $37 support was violated and there is 
nothing to support the price now.  Still no news to report. 
Keep your stops set so that any good news won't erase your


WHR - Whirlpool Corp. $51.38 +1.19 (+2.38 this wk)(+2.63)

Whirlpool is an appliance manufacturer and marketer of 
commercial and home appliances with facilities in North, 
South and Central America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, 
and Europe. 

WHR has been "whirling" up big gains as of late.  After taking 
a sizable plunge throughout January and February, WHR has made 
quite a comeback.  It has moved from approximately $41 to $51 
in March alone.  We see the uptrend continuing.  Back on March 
9th, Lehman Brothers upgraded WHR to a buy from outperform and 
forecasted a price target of $75.  CIBC Oppenheimer followed 
suit a few days later with and upgrade to a "buy" from "hold" 
and set an 18 month price target of $70.  Since the upgrades, 
the company has managed to sustain its climb and we now feel 
confident that WHR will continue to rise.     

No new news for WHR, but with a positive earnings warning
from Maytag (MYG), investors are going to be expecting the
same from WHR.

BUY CALL APR-50*WHR-DJ OI=112 at $2.75 SL=1.50
BUY CALL APR-55 WHR-DK OI= 13 at $0.69 SL=0.00
BUY CALL MAY-50 WHR-EJ OI= 35 at $4.00 SL=2.50
BUY CALL MAY-55 WHR-EK OI= 33 at $1.75 SL=1.00 

Picked on March 25th at $51.38      PE = 12
Change since picked    +$ 0.00      52 week low =$40.94
Analysts Ratings     2-2-4-0-0      52 week high=$75.25
Last earnings 01/99 est 0.85   actual 1.09 surprise=+28% 
Next earnings 04-20 est 0.79   versus 0.90
Average Daily Volume = 349.5 K
Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=WHR&d=3m


EMR - Emerson Electric $54.19 +0.13 (-2.31 this wk)(-3.38)

Emerson Electric Co. designs, engineers, manufactures and 
sells a diverse range electrical, and electronic products 
on contract for others and for its own label on a worldwide 

Technically Emerson's chart has fallen off a cliff and 
violated what little support it set in 8/98 and 1/99 at 
$55.  Their last earnings were on 2-2 where they fell $0.05 
short of their $0.69 estimate (-7% surprise).  Next 
earnings are scheduled May 4.  Volume has increased 
substantially over the last week as the price has dropped 
indicating investors desire to dump EMR.  On a strong day 
in the market, EMR eked out only $0.13 which came only 
toward the end of the day.  Look at the chart to see what 
we mean.  This is a technical and "cockroach" play.  Where 
you find 1 cockroach, you'll find many more (thanks Roger).  
We expect the bugs to keep coming out.  Confirm market 
direction before playing.

CAUTION: These are thinly traded

BUY PUT APR-55*EMR-PK OI=89 at $1.75 SL=0.75
BUY PUT APR-60 EMR-PL OI=35 at $6.00 SL=4.25 ITM 5.81, low prem.

Picked on March 25th at $54.19      PE = 19
Change since picked    +$ 0.00      52 week low =$53.06
Analysts Ratings     7-3-2-1-0      52 week high=$67.44
Last earnings  02/99 est 0.69   actual 0.64 surprise=-7% 
Next earnings  05-04 est 0.74   versus 0.69
Average Daily Volume  = 981 K
Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=EMR&d=3m

Back on the right track!

Wednesday, March 24

Stocks closed mixed Wednesday and investors went bargain hunting
a day after the market suffered a broad "earnings scare" sell-off.
The DJIA was off 5 points at 9666. On Tuesday, the index slumped
219 points in the year's second-biggest drop. The Nasdaq index of
technology stocks rose 42 points to 2365 bouncing back after the
previous giant slide. In the broad market, advancing issues edged
out declines by a small margin on moderate volume of 763 million
shares on the NYSE.

Tuesday's new plays (positions/prices):

GILD  MAY45C/APR45C  $1.38 Debit  (easy entry as that price)
TXN   APR75P/APR80P  $0.50 Credit (played near the open)	
REV   MAY15C/APR17C  $1.50 Debit  (delayed open, and a gap-up)
ESPI  JUN5C/JUN7C    $1.87 Debit  (slightly less than our target)

Note: Revlon climbed almost $5 after opening late and the option
prices were quite volatile. The best price I saw was $1.38 but we
will post the initial debit as $1.50. The company still declined
to comment on speculation that it might be a takeover candidate.

Wednesday's portfolio plays:

PG is starting to look more like a bullish chart and these safety
stocks have way of becoming havens when the market gets volatile
(and bearish). The time value has eroded somewhat in the neutral
butterfly spread allowing a small profit if we exit the position
now. Another option would be to close the bearish portion of the
spread (APR95C/APR90C) for a debit of about $2.25. You would then
have a total debit of $3.00 on the APR85C/APR90C and a new profit
opportunity of $2.00. We will try to track both scenarios to see
which performs better.

Thursday, March 25

The Dow snapped a string of losses closing sharply higher on
Thursday, as strength in technology stocks and positive earnings
news boosted Wall Street's confidence. The DJIA surged to close
up 169 points at 9836. The technology sector also soared, pushing
the Nasdaq index 69 points higher to 2434. In the overall market,
gaining stocks outpaced declines by a strong margin in both the
New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.

Thursday portfolio plays:

REV was closed early at $2 credit as the stock continued its rise.
The play could be held longer for a greater profit but $0.50 on a
one day spread trade is good! NSOL continues to slide after the
split and we will watch this one closely at it approaches our two
spread positions. PG moved higher with the broad market rally and
the aggressive maneuver from Wednesday's play would have been the
ticket but sadly, we chose the conservative exit.
				- NEW PLAYS -
CTXS - Citrix Systems  $74.06   *** Splits Today! ***

Citrix Systems' WinFrame software allows networked computers (even
non-Windows-based units) such as Macintoshes, UNIX machines and
stripped-down "thin clients" to run Windows-based applications
from a central server. Citrix's 3,000 clients include Sears, HWP
and Canadian wireless telecommunications provider Bell Mobility.
Microsoft, which licenses Citrix's technology, owns about 6% of
the company and IBM and Sharp Electronics also license Citrix

Citrix Systems gained $5 on positive comments by Lehman Brothers
and the anticipation of a stock split this afternoon. After the
market close, the stock will split two-for-one and that will be
in the form of a 100% stock dividend. The technical appearance of
this issue leads us to believe that the stock price will suffer
the same post-split depression as most other stocks.

We found a small disparity in the pre-split options but the
series and prices will be different tomorrow. Make sure you are
trading the appropriate symbols before you open any positions.

PLAY (conservative/credit spread):


BUY  CALL APR-95 XSQ-DS OI=236 A=$0.87
SELL CALL APR-90 XSQ-DR OI=495 B=$1.25

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=CTXS&d=3m
RMBS - Rambus  $66.00     *** A Rally Today! ***

Rambus makes an interface that accelerates the exchange of signals
between a computer's memory and logic chips. This technology helps
the development of faster computers. Rambus targets its products
to multimedia, networking equipment, and digital TV markets. Even
Nintendo uses Rambus technology in its Nintendo 64 game system.
Rambus licenses its designs to semiconductor makers, including NEC,
Samsung, and Intel, and earns royalties on the sale of these other
Rambus-based products. Most dynamic random-access memory makers
have licensed Rambus' interface.

Rambus gained $4 today after Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Edelstone
reiterated his "outperform" rating on the firm and according to
Bloomberg News, dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip maker
Samsung reportedly told Edelstone that it plans to increase its
production of Rambus-enhanced chips to up to half of its total
DRAM volume by the end of next year.

That's good news and the rally will probably continue in the short
term but the RMBS chart will need a serious change in character
to make $80 by the April strike date. We just don't think it has
enough potential to break-through recent resistance around $75.

PLAY (very conservative/credit spread):

BUY  CALL APR-85 BNQ-DQ OI=129 A=$0.68
SELL CALL APR-80 BNQ-DP OI=243 B=$1.06

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RMBS&d=3m
CPB - Campbell Soup  $41.43     *** Volatility play ***

Campbell Soup holds 75% of the US soup market, with such comfort
food staples as chicken noodle. The firm also makes sauces, Godiva
chocolate, and baked goods, and it runs a food service unit. With
recent sluggish soup sales, Campbell is adding more convenience
items, such as microwaveable and single-serving containers. To
focus on soup, crackers, and food service, it spun off several
noncore units including Swanson frozen foods and Vlasic pickles.

Implied volatility in options on CPB climbed this week as the
stock price firmed after losing as much of its value in the first
two months of the year. A market maker in the CPB options said
trading volume was well above average with aggressive buyers of
calls and also noted that there had been speculation a few weeks
ago that the food manufacturer was in merger talks. No one at the
company commented on the speculation or on the market activity.

We don't necessarily anticipate any merger or takeover but there
is some technical support forming near $40 and with the pricing
of the April options, even a slightly bullish time spread has a
favorable risk/reward.

PLAY (conservative/time spread):

BUY  CALL MAY-42.50 CPB-EV OI=235 A=$2.38
SELL CALL APR-42.50 CPB-DV OI=786 B=$1.25

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=CPB&d=3m

With today's rally, both of these well known stocks moved into
new territory and they are excellent candidates for covered-call
writing. We are reducing the net cost of the long option by the
amount of credit from the sale of the nearer-term option. If the
near-term call expires worthless, we will sell the MAY call to
further reduce our debit. If the short-term position is ITM on
the last day of the strike, you need to buy it back so that you
DON'T have to exercise the long term position. In that case, your
long position is going up in value also and near the last day of
the strike period, the short call will shrink down to intrinsic
value so you should still be ahead in the play even after you buy
it back...Good Luck!
EMC - EMC Corp.  $124.62     *** Blue Skies Above! ***

EMC is the #1 maker (ahead of IBM) of mainframe computer disk
memory hardware and software. The company makes RAID (redundant
array of independent disks) memory storage and retrieval systems
for larger mainframe computers as well as desktop PCs. EMC markets
its memory products under the name Symmetrix. Other products let
users manage remote data and share information across networks of
different computers. EMC continues to broaden product portfolios,
strengthen alliances, and expand its global presence to create
more platform-independent systems. EMC is one of America's five
top-performing companies and is now the hands-down world leader
in data storage: assembling and selling the hardware and software
that computers of all types and sizes use to store information.

(This issue is followed regularly in the main section of the OIN.)

PLAY (conservative/long-term):

BUY  CALL OCT-130 EMB-JF OI=394  A=$17.25
SELL CALL APR-125 EMB-DE OI=1021 B=$5.00

Note: We are bullish on this position and will start with an OTM
call option on the long side. This spread requires a collateral
investment until the sold strike is "rolled-up" to $130.

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=EMC&d=3m
PG - Proctor and Gamble  $100.50     *** LEAPS - Covered-Calls ***

Procter & Gamble is the #1 US manufacturer of household products,
with five main categories: laundry and cleaning, paper goods,
beauty care, food and beverage, and health care. The company
developed olestra, a fat substitute used in snacks and crackers.
It also produces soap operas As the World Turns, Another World,
and Guiding Light.

There isn't much to say about PG other than this conglomerate is
behind a majority of the products we use everyday. The long-term
technical outlook is bullish and with the recent break above the
resistance at $95, the stock is now trading in uncharted waters.
A consolidation is in order but we believe the new support area
will be between $95 and $100.

PLAY (conservative/long-term):

BUY  CALL JAN00-100 LPR-AT OI=1395 A=$12.00
SELL CALL APR-100   PG-DT  OI=4759 B=$3.00

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=PG&d=3m

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