Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 06/15/1999

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The Option Investor Newsletter         Tuesday  6-15-99
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings.
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        6-15-99          High     Low     Volume   Advances Decline
DOW    10594.99 + 31.66 10682.06 10562.06  698,119k  1,635   1,356
Nasdaq  2414.67 + 16.36  2434.52  2397.40  834,404k  1,789   2,127 
S&P-100  660.40 +  4.14   665.62   656.26   Totals   3,424   3,483
S&P-500 1301.16 +  7.16  1310.75  1294.00            49.6%   50.4%
$RUT     434.01 +  2.48   435.41   431.37
$TRAN   3351.52 +   .83  3375.59  3347.65
VIX       28.23 +   .84    28.28    25.80
Put/Call Ratio      .56    
The markets hold their breath in advance of the CPI report.

After surging at the open on the strength of the internets the
Nasdaq, which closed just under 2400 last night, dropped back 
from the intraday high of 2434 to bounce off 2400 again just 
before the close. Is the carnage over in the Internet stocks 
yet? More later.. 

The Dow also surged to as high as +120 intraday only to fall back
to only +31 at the close. The Dow relief rally is now complete 
and all eyes are on the CPI report tomorrow. The outcome may
be drastic either way. Some say a low CPI will still not have
a positive impact since the interest rate worries are now the
foremost topic in the market place. A high CPI will only confirm
the Fed worry and force an interest rate hike at or before the 
FOMC meeting on Jun-29 & 30th but a low report will prove nothing.

So either way we can't win. The market is likely to remain range
bound until the FOMC meeting. The volume is very low with less 
than 700 mln shares traded on the NYSE. Everybody is on hold.
The week after the FOMC meeting is the beginning of the earnings
reporting cycle. Everyone expects S&P companies to post higher
earnings and the market to rally in support. As traders we would
all be better off if we could set our alarm clocks for Monday, 
July 5th, and awaken to the new rally without having to endure
the next two weeks of torture. 

Ralph Acomporaspan was on CNBC today reminding us that he said
we "could" have a 5-10% correction three weeks ago. Funny, I
did not hear him say that back then. Now his top number for this
year is 11,500 and he said firmly today that he would not change
it the rest of the year. As a market technician Ralph has been
noted for several of his successes and most of his failures have
been ignored. He came out of his burrow today and predicted two 
more weeks of winter based on the length of market correction
cycles. His cycle count is an average of 20-26 days of correction
for each strong upward move. The current "correction" started on
May 14th. Today would have been 22 trading days. The Fed meeting
will conclude on the 33rd day. His two more weeks of winter would
then end the day the Fed meeting is over. Coincidence? I think
not. The ground hog is really a sly fox in disguise. He can point
to his market timing models for direction but then grab a quick 
glance at the economic event chart to find reality. Any way
you cook the numbers, it is still the news and events that move
the market. The market movers for the next three weeks are still
the CPI, Greenspan's speech on Thursday, FOMC on the 29-30th and
July earnings thereafter. Everything else is just noise while we
mark time till the FOMC.

Would the Internet bears please stand up and identify yourselves.
We keep hearing that the bears are selling but the pundits all
say the Internets are now fairly valued and this is a buying 
opportunity. Are we being killed by the press and their speculative
bubble stories or is there really someone out there that we can 
focus our anger on? As a group I know there are many of us that
thought the Internets were a "buying opportunity" at -40% off their
recent highs. At -50% those that waited are better off than those
of us who thought we saw a bottom 10% ago. So, was the minor bounce
we saw today a symptom of new life or just a tremor brought on by
application of a cardiac defibrillator to the lifeless corpse? 
New lows today included AOL $89, YHOO $117, CMGI $71. Those of you 
who think the Internet world has come to an end should realize that 
these numbers represent the level we were at in March, not last year. 
Yes we gave up all the gains from the last 90 days but it is not the 
end of the world, UNLESS...

It is the end of the world if you bought AOL at $160 in April or
$140 in May AND ARE STILL HOLDING. How about YHOO at $240 in April
or CMGI at $160. I received several emails recently asking me if
the Internet drop is over yet because they had bought these stocks
at the high prices and wanted to know if they should sell them now.
I am not kidding. I am withholding the names and emails for obvious
reasons. This is where you would normally get the obligatory "stop 
loss" discussion but not today. If you have used the terms "it can't
go any lower" or "it has to come back soon" recently in regards to
your own portfolio then you also need to listen carefully. Nothing
EVER "has to come back" and absolutely no stock is immune to "going
lower". Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Previous highs or previous trading ranges or previous earnings runs
or previous "anything else", has no bearing on the current stock
price. Yes, I know, you can make a case for previous support levels 
becoming future support levels but in reality the stock price is
dependent on investor interest, nothing else. If the press convinces
the investing public that Internets are 1000% over valued then they
will eventually find their value level. You can replace "Internets"
with any other sector as well. Simply pick any 20 charts at random
and for every stock not making new highs there are thousands of
investors deluding themselves into thinking "it can't go any lower"
or "it has to come back". If you believe these two phrases then we
need to talk about the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy and Santa Claus
as well. While believing in any of these things may be fun and a
substitute for anti-depressants, reality is still reality and stop
losses are the only thing between you and a reality you don't want
to face. If you liked AOL @ $140, YHOO @ $240 and CMGI @ $160 then
you should really be happy with them on sale today at half price.
That is of course only if you were stopped out a long time ago!!
Is the Internet sell off over? Who knows, but do you still want to 
be holding if AOL hits $50?

Life after CPI? Dow support is at 10,400, (now 10594), and the
Nasdaq support is at 2400 (now 2414) with next support at 2350.
I can see the Dow going either way but the Nasdaq "should" not
drop much further. I think the upper end of the Nasdaq range will
be 2500 and Dow 10700 until the FOMC meeting. If Greenspan says
anything hawkish on Thursday then all bets are off and grab the 
parachutes. Like I said Sunday, traders can trade this market
very carefully but "holders" should stay on the sidelines till 
after July 4th. Remember also this is a triple witching Friday
and don't keep holding June options hoping for a miracle.

Good Luck, and please sell too soon.

Jim Brown 

Market Posture
As of Market Close - Tuesday, June 15, 1999 

                   Key Benchmarks
Broad Market       Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert

DOW Industrials   10,500  11,000  10,595    Neutral   6.15 * 
SPX S&P 500        1,315   1,355   1,301    BEARISH   6.10   
OEX S&P 100          660     690     660    Neutral   6.15 * 
RUT Russell 2000     435     450     434    BEARISH   6.15 * 

NDX NASD 100       2,100   2,250   2,058    BEARISH   6.08  
MSH High Tech      1,000   1,100   1,028    Neutral   5.28     

XCI Hardware         900     920     875    BEARISH   5.20
CWX Software         660     675     661    Neutral   6.10  
SOX Semiconductor    400     425     451    BULLISH   6.10               
NWX Networking       510     565     535    Neutral   6.12
INX Internet         500     600     405    BEARISH   5.20             

BIX Banking          680     720     659    BEARISH   5.18   
XBD Brokerage        425     475     378    BEARISH   5.21             
IUX Insurance        645     660     640    BEARISH   6.10 

RLX Retail           900     970     850    BEARISH   4.29 
DRG Drug             390     425     350    BEARISH   4.29  
HCX Healthcare       780     850     708    BEARISH   4.29  
XAL Airline          180     210     163    BEARISH   5.21      
OIX Oil & Gas        285     310     306    Neutral   5.13

Posture Alert

With several indexes trading higher thanks to a nice 2-day rally 
in the Treasury market, we have turned Neutral on the Dow and 
S&P 100, and turned bearish on the Russell 2000.

Strong: Semiconductors, Oil and Gas! 
Weak: Russell 2000, Software

A detailed description of our Market Posture and its
applications can be found at:


Market Sentiment - By Pinnacle Capital Advisors
Tuesday, June 15, 1999

Oracle of things to come?

One thing that we consistently stress at Pinnacle Capital is the power 
of sentiment analysis. As you all probably know by now, Oracle came out 
with great numbers after the close. If you were to take a look at the 
sentiment on ORCL during the day today, you would see extremely bearish 
undertones going into their report. First of all, the stock sold off 
during the afternoon session on whispers of missing their expectations. 
Second,the whisper number was the same as what the street was 
expecting. For a leading technology company in a high growth sector, 
this is unusual. Third, and most important, we calculated the Pinnacle 
Index for sentiment on ORCL and it came out to .964, which is EXTREMELY 
BEARISH!! Between the 22.5 and 25 strikes of ORCL, the puts we much 
greater than the calls. Can you guess who will probably make money at 
these strikes? As we have talked about recently with the out-of-the-
money, OEX wrong-ways, there seems to be the same group of people that 
were playing ORCL.

One aspect of our analysis that still bothers us is the increase in 
out-of-the-money OEX calls. These people are increasing their 
positions, hoping for a huge run in the very near term. The Pinnacle 
Index between 680-750 now stands at 26.1, which is extremely bullish 
and is the highest number in many months. We highly doubt that as long 
as the extreme bullishness remains at these key benchmarks, that the 
market will break through any time soon. The good news is that option 
expiration for June is only a few days away, and if ORCL is a preview 
for the July earnings season, then these OEX traders were just a month 
or two early.




Mixed Signs:

Advance/Decline Line:
After checking up last week, the A/D line is beginning 
to roll over and could prove Bearish if decliners out pace advancers 
in the week ahead. 

Russell 2000: 
After recent rally failed just below the 450 benchmark, the small cap
stocks are beginning to roll over just above its 50 day moving


Market Volatility (VIX):  
Closed ABOVE its 50-day moving average (28.23) indicating the end of 
current bullish run. 

Investor Intelligence:  
As a contrarian indicator, the percent of Bullish investors is over 
55% suggesting Bullish sentiment is at extreme level and are ignoring 
the selloff. 

Interest Rates:
Trading ABOVE 200dma and 5.50 Benchmark (6.10%).

Pinnacle Index:  
Overhead resistance (OEX 680-700) clocking in at 14.6 
suggesting that option speculators are expecting the market to 
advance higher.

Peak Open Interest:  
The contraian put-call ratio clocking in at .89 suggesting bullish
sentiment picking up steam.

OTM Call Analysis

As we move through June's expiration cycle, Pinnacle is tracking 
the level of call buying (OTM) between 680-750 among option
speculators. As we have been documenting, excessive out-of-the-
money (OTM) call may serve as overhead resistance.

April Expiration Cycle
OEX OTM Call Analysis (Open Interest Apr 650-700)
Date                 Open Interest     Change %    Alert

Friday, March 19            35,626         -
Friday, March 26            60,266      +69.2%     
Friday, April 2             70,952      +99.2%     
Friday, April 9             74,028     +107.8%     

May Expiration Cycle
OEX OTM Call Analysis (Open Interest May 680-750)
Date                 Open Interest      Change %    Alert

Friday, April 16            30,697          -
Friday, April 23            53,887       +75.5%      
Friday, April 30            65,936      +114.8%       
Friday, May 7               89,736      +192.3%     
Friday, May 14              97,861      +218.8%     
Friday, May 21             115,336      +275.0%     

June Expiration Cycle
OEX OTM Call Analysis (Open Interest June 680-750)
Date                 Open Interest     Change %    Alert

Friday, May 28           53,502            -
Friday, June 4           61,255          +14.5%
Friday, June 11          67,597          +26.3%
Tuesday, June 15         68,931          +28.8%

Market Sentiment at a Glance
                                Friday     Tues      Thurs  
Indicator                       (6/11)     (6/15)    (6/17) Alert

Pinnacle Index (OEX):          

                    (680-750)    23.1       26.1
Overhead Resistance (680-700)    12.7       14.6
Underlying Support  (645-660)     1.5        1.5
                    (510-660)     5.2        5.1

Put/Call Ratios:

CBOE Total P/C Ratio               .7         .6
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio              .5         .5
OEX P/C Ratio                     1.0        1.0

Peak Open Interest (OEX):

Puts                              600       600
Calls                             670       670
P/C Ratio                         .85       .87

Market Volatility Index (VIX):	

CBOE VIX                        27.01     28.23

Investors Intelligence:

Bullish                         58.3%     58.3%  *
Bearish                         28.7%     28.7%  *

The Power of Sentiment Analysis

It has often been said that the crowd is right during the
market trends but wrong at both ends.  Measuring and
evaluating the sentiment of the crowd, therefore, can give
savvy option traders a decided edge.

Pinnacle Index - OEX            Friday      Tues      Thurs
Benchmark                        (6/11)     (6/15)    (6/17)

                    (680-750)     23.1       26.1         
Overhead Resistance (680-700)     12.7       14.6

OEX Close                       654.87     660.40
Underlying Support  (645-660)      1.5        1.5     
                    (510-660)      5.2        5.1

Average ratings: 
Resistance levels 2.0 / Support Levels .5

What the Pinnacle Index is telling us:
Overhead sentiment resistance is building at the OEX 680/695 level 
while the underlying support is holding at the OEX 645/660 level.

Put/Call Ratio                  Friday      Tues       Thurs
Strike/Contracts                 (6/11)     (6/15)    (6/17)

CBOE Total P/C Ratio               .66       .62
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio              .49       .52
OEX P/C Ratio                      .96      1.00

Peak Open Interest (OEX)
                     Friday         Tues          Thurs
Strike/Contracts     (6/11)         (6/15)        (6/17)

Puts                 600 / 11,690     600 / 12,631
Calls                670 / 13,735     670 / 14,552
Put/Call Ratio       .85              .89



Market Volatility Index (VIX)
Date                Turning Point       VIX

October 97          Bottom              54.60      
July 20, 1998       Top                 16.88         
October 8, 1998     Bottom              60.63
January 11, 1998    Top                 26.38
March 4, 1999       Bottom              28.15   
May 14, 1999        Top                 25.01   

June 15, 1999                           28.23 



Investors Intelligence Survey
                    Major             Percent     Percent
Date                Turning Point     Bullish     Bearish

October 97          Bottom            22.0        48.3       
July 20, 1998       Top               52.0        24.0         
October 8, 1998     Bottom            38.5        42.7
January 11, 1999    Top               58.3        30.0
March 4, 1999       Bottom            49.1        32.5
May 14, 1999        Top               60.9        28.7

January   6, 1999                     58.3        30.0   
January  13, 1999                     60.0        30.0   
January  20, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
January  27, 1999                     60.7        28.2   

February  3, 1999                     60.0        26.7   
February 10, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
February 17, 1999                     55.7        28.7   
February 24, 1999                     54.1        31.5   

March 3, 1999                         50.9        32.1   
March 10, 1999                        49.1        32.5   
March 17, 1999                        52.6        17.6     
March 24, 1999                        55.9        29.7     
March 31, 1999                        55.6        31.6     

April 7, 1999                         56.4        31.6     
April 14, 1999                        55.9        30.5     
April 21, 1999                        56.4        30.8     
April 28, 1999                        56.1        30.7     

May 5, 1999                           58.1        27.6     
May 12, 1999                          56.9        31.0     
May 19, 1999                          60.9        28.7      
May 26, 1999                          60.9        28.7      

June 2, 1999                          61.6        27.7      
June 10, 1999                         58.3        28.7 *     

Please view this in COURIER 10 font for alignment

Index     Last    Mon   Tue   Week
Dow    10594.99  72.82 31.66 104.48
Nasdaq  2414.67 -49.57 16.36 -33.21
$OEX     660.40   1.39  4.14   5.53
$SPX    1301.16   0.36  7.16   7.52
$RUT     434.01  -6.48  2.48  -4.00
$TRAN   3351.52   6.22  0.83   7.05
$VIX      28.23   2.00  0.84   2.84

Stock             Mon   Tue   Week

TXN      134.69   1.63  5.44   7.07  7th straight intraday high
TER       66.81   2.56  0.94   3.50  Set a new 52 week high
SCI       50.00  -0.19  3.19   3.00  Trade volume finally surged 
GE       104.19   2.41  0.44   2.85  Resistance at $105
NVLS      65.50   0.06  2.50   2.56  Reiterated as a "buy"
AA        64.69   2.00 -0.31   1.69  Could consolidate soon
AMAT      67.38   0.19  1.38   1.57  Sure and steady 
IBM      115.88   1.19  0.38   1.57  Relief rally?
NOK       82.00  -1.38  2.63   1.26  New, technically strong
ADPT      33.00  -0.19  0.56   0.37  Consolidating
LSI       44.25  -0.63  0.88   0.25  Good position to rally
ORCL      25.13   1.13 -1.31  -0.18  Dropped, earnings released
CNXT      55.63  -1.38  1.00  -0.38  New intraday all time high
XRX       57.69   0.06 -0.50  -0.44  Dropped, not moving
LGTO      54.06  -2.25  1.56  -0.69  Solid seat on 10 dma
CAT       58.44   0.50 -1.50  -1.00  Dropped, below 30 dma
GPS       63.00  -1.63 -0.31  -1.94  Dropped, patience gone
NT        81.75   0.25 -2.38  -2.13  President leaving 
BRCM     110.63 -12.00  9.63  -2.37  Wait for entry point
SDLI      50.88  -7.38  0.75  -6.63  Dropped, negative rumors
UNPH     137.50   0.25 -6.94  -6.69  Dropped, sector weak
BVSN      52.13  -3.38 -3.63  -7.01  Dropped, chart weak
YHOO     125.25 -16.00  6.00 -10.00  High risk earnings play


NXLK      67.00  -4.94 -4.00  -8.94  New, dropping rapidly
ATHM      80.06  -7.50  1.56  -5.94  Chart is "bearish"
INTU      78.00  -3.44 -2.50  -5.94  New, falling with NASDAQ
CVC       64.00  -3.31  1.31  -2.00  Be cautious!
TMX       72.50  -1.00  2.69   1.69  Bounce?  Set stops tight!
WHR       64.00   2.13 -0.31   1.82  Perched on resistance

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time. 
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


ORCL $25.13 -1.31 (-0.18)  On Sunday, we said that we would 
be dropping ORCL after it announced its earnings on Tuesday.  
Analysts had been predicting that ORCL would match the First 
Call estimates of $0.32.  ORCL did make a small run as it 
edged higher on Monday by +$1.13.  On Tuesday in early trading 
it moved higher again and reached $27.56 before investors 
cashed in ahead of the announcement.  By the close of trading 
ORCL dropped -$1.31.  However, ORCL actually beat the 
estimates by four cents and was up over $3 in after hours 
trading on the news.  ORCL could very well continue to head 
higher.  If you did hold over earnings, this doesn't mean 
you have to immediately close your positions just because 
we are dropping it as a play.  We are simply dropping it 
on principle since we recommend selling ahead of the 
announcements.  If Oracle can hold the bounce and 
consistently climb higher, we will consider 
re-adding it later in the week.

GPS $63.00 -0.31 (-1.94)  The Gap has been edging its way
lower throughout the past few days of trading and we are now 
dropping it as a play.  Our patience has run out.  We had 
been waiting for this popular stock to begin its split run.  
(The company will split 3:2 on June 22nd.)  But, we must have 
jinxed the company when we began to cover it as a call because 
it proceed to drop lower and is now hanging just below its 
30 dma.  Even though the Gap could rebound and make a run as 
we draw closer to the split date (and it probably will due 
to Murphy's Law), we are in any case letting this retailer go.

CAT $58.44 -1.50 (-2.00) We are throwing out CAT by the tail.
We added CAT as a post-war clean up play, but as of yet, there
is nothing to support this idea.  We still feel CAT will benefit
from the clean up process, but we can't continue to hold a dog.
(no pun intended) The stock is also trading now below its 30-
dma.  We will watch CAT to see if truly does have nine lives,
but for the time being we are dropping it.

BVSN $52.13 -3.63 (-7.00) BVSN has been beaten down the first 
two days of the week, already losing $7.00.  Monday was 
understandable since the Internet as a whole was taken down,
but Tuesday the internets bounced back. Yet, we couldn't find 
any news to account for the drop, but we don't like the looks 
of the chart.  We are going to drop BVSN as a play for the time
being.  We do like the stock and feel when the Internet makes
its next move, BVSN will benefit.

SDLI $50.88 +0.75 (-6.62) SDLI got off to a rocky start this 
week.  The stock dropped sharply on Monday from rumors that 
were posted on the Internet claiming that the company was 
experiencing shipping delays.  That instantly triggered the
sell off.  The company of course denies the rumors but it 
was too late.  When you're dealing with a company with such 
a small float like SDLI, just over 15 million shares, it 
doesn't take much to tank the stock.  Only time will tell 
if the rumors are true but it takes the momentum out of our
play and we are dropping it from the call list.  One positive 
note for those interested in pursuing the play is the stock's
ability to hang on at the 50-dma.  This may prove to hold 
and provide support for the stock.

UNPH $137.50 -6.94 (-6.69) Uniphase fell sharply this after-
noon after holding on to gains for the early part of the day.  
It looked like UNPH was going to hang on but heavy selling 
came in during the final couple hours which sent shares down 
more than 5% for the day.  There wasn't any news that was 
released but it looks like sector weakness has set in.  Others 
in the group have been battered recently.  Some of the recent
selling may stem from an article in Smart Money that says 
fiber optic technology may be changing, which may cloud the
outlook for UNPH's products.  Whether it is sector weakness 
or fall out from the Smart Money article which is circulating, 
the momentum has changed.  So we are no longer recommending 
new plays on UNPH.

XRX $57.69 -0.50 (-0.44)  Narrow is the best word to 
describe XRX's trading behavior yesterday.  Volume was 
fairly moderate as the stock bounced between $57.94 and 
$58.94 all day long.  For the last several days, XRX has
been holding $58 as support.  Today's close below that 
level signals weakness ahead.  It could just be pre-CPI/ 
Greenspan jitters but we don't want to wait it out.  Time
is money and we're dropping XRX for more successful plays. 



***** Play updates continued in section two *****


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only. The information provided herein is not to be construed 
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation 
of any stock or option but an information resource to aid the
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The newsletter staff makes every effort to provide timely 
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delivery times due to factors beyond our control.

The Option Investor Newsletter         Tuesday  6-15-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


SCI $50.00 +3.19 (+3.00)  SCI's trade volume finally picked 
up on Tuesday as over 835,000 shares traded hands.  Its 
volume had been quite depressed since the beginning of June 
at an average of only 275 K (which is much lower than SCI's 
3 month average volume of 703 K).  The extra volume on top of
today's gain is a very positive sign.  There is no new 
news but keep in mind that SCI's all time high is not too 
far away at the price of $59.38.

ADPT $33.00 +.56 (+0.37) ADPT has been in a consolidation
phase for the last week of trading.  The stock is currently
sitting just above support at $32.00-$32.50.  ADPT is just
$2 under its 52 week high and we feel this level will be
reached when the market decides that the Fed's raising interest
rates a quarter of point is already factored in.  ADPT announced 
an updated version of their Easy CD Creator 4 Deluxe today.  The
latest version will be available early fall and will support 
backing up hard disk drives on CD's.  

GE $104.19 +.44 (+2.85) GE has had a good week so far, as it
is up close to $3.  GE has very nice support at $100, but has
some resistance at its 30-dma ($105).  We would like to see GE
break through this level on strong volume.  The stock did trade
briefly above $105 today, but couldn't hold.  Volume has been
stronger the last few days, but is still below normal.  We have
yet to see news dealing with the rebuilding in Kosovo.  This
could be the boost GE needs to get it over the hump.  Tomorrows
CPI numbers will give us a good idea of what the Fed will do
at the end of the month, and could push the market up or down.
GE's NBC announced it will invest further in Xoom.com.  This 
will bring NBC's investment to $55 million in the company. 

TXN $134.69 +5.44 (+7.06) New highs, that is where TXN goes
day after day.  For the 7th straight day, TXN reached a new
52 week intraday high.  Today was particularly nice as TXN
rose to an intraday and 52 week high of $135.38.  This jump
was launched by Joe Osha of Merrill Lynch.  He raised his
price target on several chip makers, TXN being one of them.
His new price target for TXN is $155.  TXN also announced 
their new Rambus Burn-in test sockets for the RDRAM market.
The new product will allow a wider range of chips to be
tested.  It is predicted that RDRAM chips will have a 50%
market share by 2001, making these test sockets very important.
With so many strong days, watch for profit taking.  Definitely
wait to see how the market reacts to the CPI announcement
on Wednesday.

NT $81.75 -2.38 (-2.13) NT lost over $2 today on news that its
President is stepping down in the fall.  The news really isn't
a big surprise to those that follow NT, as Mr. House was made 
President of the company after being CEO of Bay Networks before 
it was purchased by NT.  Mr. House was put in the position to 
help the two companies make a transition, which he now feels 
he has done.  The drop seems to be a bit overdone, considering 
the circumstances.  NT does have support at $80, though we 
don't see it coming into play unless CPI numbers
come out very strong.  If we do see a drop to $80 intraday,
it could be a buying opportunity, but wait for the bounce
off of this level before buying.   

TER $66.81 +.94 (+3.68) TER is having a nice week so far.  The
stock is trading in new territory, as it reached a new 52 week
high of $68.94 today, before giving some back to close at $66.81.
TER has nice support at $61, though this level doesn't seem to
be in play.  Volume on Tuesday was twice the norm, but there 
was no news to account for the increase.  We see the jump as a
part of the increased interest in chip stocks.  The better these
stocks do, the better TER does, since it provides testing systems
for these companies.  On Monday, TER announced a new and improved
version of its Flying Prober.  The new product has been updated
to include Windows NT, along with other enhancements.  Target
shooting this stock could be a nice way to get a lower entry
point.  Wait until after the effects of the CPI numbers are 

LSI $44.25 +0.88 (+0.25) LSI managed to close at the day high 
despite a late day sell off in the broad markets.  The strength 
of LSI in this jittery market continues to be a positive sign 
for our play.  The stock held up fairly well on Monday also 
thanks to some news articles about product licensing and new 
business from Cabletron.  It was down slightly but that is 
to be expected after its run from last week and it gave us 
an entry point to open new plays.  The rest of the week will 
depend on the CPI on Wednesday and Alan Greenspan speaking 
on Thursday.  Volume was light again as most investors are 
waiting on sidelines for these events.  We would also urge 
caution and encourage everyone to have their stops set.  But 
if the numbers are market friendly, LSI is in good position 
to rally.   

AA $64.69 -0.31 (+1.69)  AA left its new found support at 
$63 and rallied yesterday to advance 2 points.  The climb 
was textbook - opening low and closing high with no major 
episodes in between.   Volume is still at only about half 
of it normal ADV, but the stock is faring well.  Today it 
showed strength at this new level.  AA traded steady in the 
$64-65 range only shedding a fraction at the close.   
Remember stocks move in cycles and this one needs to 
consolidate soon.   

AMAT $67.38 +1.38 (+1.57)  It had appeared support was 
developing around $62-64, but that may quickly become old 
news.  After closing above $65 on Friday, AMAT never traded 
below this point.  Yesterday's performance didn't have 
stellar results as its gain was fractionally, however the 
performance was sure and steady on strong volume.  During 
the last minutes of trading and on a burst of volume, AMAT
crossed another dollar barrier to close above $67 and right 
smack on its daily high.  On Monday, Applied Materials 
announced they're joining forces with Silicon Genesis to 
develop process applications for future chip designs.  The 
market may become squeamish as the CPI data is expected and 
worries have been in the air.  Be patient for an entry and 
keep the stops tight.

LGTO $54.06 +1.56 (-0.69)  LGTO pushed towards $56 early on 
Monday morning then settled back to trade at its support of 
$54.  Selling pressure in the afternoon dragged LGTO down  
-2.25 points by the finish.  Today the stock recaptured 
most of its losses in light trading.  It's maintaining a 
solid seat on its 10 dma, but seems to be quite content at 
this level.  We need to see upward direction with some 
conviction before beginning a new play.   On Monday, Legato 
formed a strategic alliance with Auspex Systems.  Both 
companies are committed to the development of high-
performance data management applications.

YHOO $125.25 +6.00 (-10.00)  Is there a light at the end of 
this Internet tunnel?  According to Thomas Weisal Partners, 
there is for YAHOO!  They initiated coverage with a "buy" 
and cited a "favorable risk/reward" factor.  This is HIGH-
RISK earnings run play.  The report is expected a few weeks 
from now on July 7th.  We decided to alert our Internet 
players early on.  Historically, YHOO has been a great 
success for an earnings run play.  This may be the time to 
find an entry point prior to the sector's (inevitable??) 
recovery.  Hopefully, bargain hunters will start sniffing 
around (like they did today) and put their money back into 
this sector in droves.   We know there's interest.  Volume 
has been cranking right along the past two days at over 12 
mln. shares exchanging hands.  In the news, YAHOO! 
announced a marketing pact with AutoWeb.com.  This multi-
year agreement will give users direct access to a 
comprehensive auto buying service.  Always remember, even 
after doing all the research and planning, nothing is 
guaranteed.  Any Internet play can be VERY RISKY and VOLATILE. 

NVLS $65.50 +2.50 (+2.56) After a .06 gain on Monday, NVLS tacked 
on $2.50 today and closed right near the high of the day. David 
Wu at ABN Amro reiterated his "buy "rating on the stock. His 12 
to 18 month price target is $100. Hambrect and Quist's Eric Chen, 
Phd. also reiterated his "buy" on NVLS. Positive comments on 
the makers of chips for communications by Joseph Osha at Merrill 
Lynch helped as well. Technical indicators all remain solidly 
positive. Both this stock and its sector have been bucking the 
downward trend of the general market.

BRCM $110.63 +9.63 (-2.37) After a big drop of $12.00 yesterday, 
BRCM managed to regain most of the loss today on strong volume. 
BRCM as one of 7 companies mentioned by Joseph Osha when he 
raised his estimated revenue growth for the group of companies 
making chips for communications to 15.5% from 12%. BRCM 
announced that Pace, Panasonic, Phillips, Pioneer, and 
Scientific-Atlanta will use its new 2-way cable TV transmission 
solution for interactive cable set top boxes. The company will 
be demonstrating its "Open Cable Development Platform" running 
Microsoft Web TV at Cable '99 in Chicago the weekend. Use caution
when initiating options on BRCM. The stock can be quite volatile 
and a good entry is especially important with BRCM if you are 
only holding short term. 

IBM $115.88 +.38 (+1.57) IBM added $1.29 yesterday and another 
$.38 today as the DOW staged a bit of a relief rally. The stock 
traded as high as $118.31 today and bounced off the day's low 
of $114.75 in the last 1/2 hour of trading. Increases in chip 
stock prices are helping the computer stocks to rise. We got 
the pop we were looking for in IBM at the beginning of the 
week, but the next 2 days could be tricky for stocks 
with the CPI numbers released tomorrow and Alan Greenspan's 
address the following day. 

CNXT $55.63 +1.00 (-.37)  After a loss of $1.37 Monday, CNXT 
gained back $1.00 today, setting a new intra-day all time high 
along the way of $57.69. Technical indicators are still positive, 
but there has been some insider selling in June. CNXT is 
demonstrating the first programmable single-chip cable modem 
for the industry--this chip will allow upgrading! Although 
CNXT was not one of the stocks he specifically mentioned, 
Josepf Osha at Merrill Lynch raised his growth estimates in 
general for makers of chips for communications.  Remember,
we consider this one a little higher risk due to the recent
run up.  Watch your positions on this one.


TMX $72.50 +2.69 (+1.88) Merrill Lynch stepped in to spoil 
the party on TMX.  Today they upgraded the company from an 
accumulate to a long-term buy.  This helped the stock post 
a gain of $2.69 and helped Telmex curb the recent weakness.  
But volume wasn't particularly heavy and TMX was due for a 
bounce after 5 down days.  And with the release of the CPI 
tomorrow, we could be right back to the selling.  Keep your 
stops tight to lock in profits in case the CPI turns out 
to be positive.  No new plays until stock confirms direction.  

CVC $64.00 +1.31 (-2.00)  In average trading yesterday, CVC 
lost a whopping $3.31 (5%).  It closed at $62.29 moving it 
right above its 200 dma at $59.  The pattern was first-
class as it opened high and proceeded to fall on strong 
volume.  Today we saw exceptional levels of volume at 1.3 
mln. and a small advance.  This isn't necessarily good for 
a put play.  The DOW's rally and the FCC inviting a 
challenge from AT&T regarding the Oregon decision certainly 
had its influence.  Players may want to wait a day or two
since CVC's annual shareholder's meeting is on Thursday.
We all know how companies like to hype their progress to 
their shareholders.  If you are profitable already, you
may want to tighten those stop losses.

WHR $64.00 -0.31 (+1.81)  WHR bounced with the market on 
Monday and tacked on $2.12, but only on 50% of its normal 
volume.  Today the volume picked up some strength and WHR 
shed a fraction after a choppy day of trading.  It's 
perched on its resistance which is also the mark of its 50 
dma.  The market may be bearish the next few days (ala CPI), 
but confirm stock direction first before you open a new 

ATHM $80.06 +1.56 (-5.94)  On Monday ATHM spiraled down and 
lost another 8.7% (-7.50) in excitable trading.  ATHM had 
tried to spike up early in the morning hitting $90.25, then 
just plummeted.  Volume was over 8 mln. which is twice its 
average daily volume of 4.18 mln.  The heavy trading 
continued today, but ATHM's behavior was more uniform.  The 
spread was within 6 points all day long and the stock 
managed a slight gain.  The major announcement by the FCC 
challenging the jurisdiction of the recent ruling in Oregon 
and certainly played its part today.  Still ATHM is a solid 
10+ points below its 200 dma and the charts are very 
"bearish".  This may be a good point of entry.  However, I 
must remind you of the VERY HIGH RISK involved in playing 
Internet stocks.   Exit with discipline and keep the stops 


NOK - Nokia Corp $82.00 +2.63 (+1.25 this week)(+3.62)

Nokia is the world's leading mobile phone supplier and a leading 
supplier of mobile and fixed telecom networks including related 
customer services. Nokia also supplies solutions and products 
for fixed and wireless datacom, as well as multimedia terminals 
and computer displays. 

Nokia started its current run at this beginning of this month 
and recently passed the level it reached on its last run, but 
it may encounter some resistance as it nears $85.69, the high 
it hit in early April. Technical indicators look very positive 
and it is trading above its 10 dma. Nokia's PE is lower than 
the average PE in the telecommunication sector and it trades 
at a lower price to earnings growth as well, so it is not quite 
as risky as some of the other stocks in the group, which trade 
at lofty PEs. Nokia regularly announces new products and 
contracts for those products. Earlier this year, it rose to the 
leadership position among the wireless phone makers. It now 
sells more wireless phones than any other company. Although 
Nokia just split on April 12th, 1999 (remember the high we 
mentioned earlier?), it is almost back to the level it was 
trading at just before the split. 

Nokia has announced many new products and agreements in the 
recent past. The latest news: Nokia and Sprint today announced a 
deal to offer all-digital wireless PCS phones that will operate
nationwide with web capability. In the deal, Nokia will deliver 
at least $360 million of phones, and as much as $500 million 
worth. Nokia is a strong company in a strong and growing sector. 
Instead of jumping into Nokia options right away, a more 
conservative approach would be to wait for the stock to clear 
$85.69, and by that time, possibly get a reaction to the CPI 
numbers and Greenspan's address to Congress.

BUY CALL JUL-80 NAY-GP OI=3279 at $5.38 SL=3.50
BUY CALL JUL-85*NAY-GQ OI=1572 at $3.00 SL=1.75
BUY CALL OCT-80 NAY-JP OI=6529 at $9.88 SL=7.50 vol=4005 today
BUY CALL OCT-85 NAY-JQ OI=1638 at $7.50 SL=5.75

Picked on June 15th at $82.00    PE = 37
Change since picked   +$ 0.00    52 week low =$29.53 
Analysts Ratings    9-5-0-0-0    52 week high=$85.69
Last earnings 03/99 est  0.48    actual 0.38 surprise=+26%
Next earnings 07-22 est  0.48    versus 0.35
Average daily volume = 2.00 mln.
Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=NOK&d=3m


NXLK - Nextlink Communications $67.00 -4.00 (-8.94 this wk)

Nextlink Comm. is a competitive local-exchange carrier that 
builds fiber-optic rings in cities to provide local and 
long distance phone service.  The company also offers 
dedicated transmission and competitive access services to 
long distance carriers and end users.  It provides services 
in 26 large markets in eight states that service more than 
50,000 customers.  In addition, NEXTLINK offers several non-
network-based enhanced communications services to customers 
nationwide, including a variety of interactive voice response 

The communications industry has taken a beating this week 
and NXLK is no exception.  Qwest started things off this 
week with an unsuspected bid for US West.  The deal would 
dilute QWST's stock badly and the QWST's stock paid for it.  
More importantly it left everyone else wondering where this 
group is headed.  Is bigger really better?  At any rate, 
QWST appears to have weakened the telecommunications sector
as investors flee to safer havens.  NXLK is not involved
in the deal and news for NXLK has been scarce.  But, if the
sector is rolling over, NXLK can not resist alone (and obviously
it has not).  NXLK's stock has dropped rapidly this week.  
It is now below it's 50-dma for the first time this year.  
Today's close was right near the day low and the selling 
doesn't appear to be over.  We expect things to get worse 
before they get better for NXLK.  But watch the CPI tomorrow 
for signs of a rally.  It could help NXLK rebound from brutal 
losses.  So confirm market direction before opening new plays.

BUY PUT JUL-70*QNF-SN OI=77 at $7.88 SL=6.25
BUY PUT JUL-65 QNF-SM OI=12 at $5.25 SL=3.50

Average Daily Volume = 389 K

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=NXLK&d=3m 


INTU - Intuit Inc. $78.00 -2.50 (-5.94 this wk)

Intuit, Inc. provides a range of small-business accounting, 
tax preparation and consumer finance desktop software.  The 
Its small business software accounts for about half of its 
sales.  It also makes the well known TurboTax and QuickBooks 
software.  Intuit sells its products through retail distribution 
channels, direct sales to customers, and the Quicken Store 
Web site, and earns its revenues primarily in the US, Japan, 
Canada and the U.K.  About 15% of its sales come from 
distributor Ingram Micro.

Intuit fell this week sparked by weakness in the NASDAQ.  The 
stock had pushed its way back to its 50-dma at $90 but sellers 
were waiting to push the stock back lower.  It doesn't look 
like the selling is over either.  As the stock tries to rally 
intra-day, the selling picks up again and drives the stock 
lower.  You can see this pattern in the short-term chart.  
But choose your entry points carefully.  INTU may be planning 
a press release on Wednesday to announce a new marketing 
alliance.  This may generate some excitement but don't expect 
it to last.  It may actually help in choosing an entry point.  
So look for the downtrend to continue.  The 200-dma is the next
support point near $71.00.

BUY PUT JUL-80 IQU-SP OI=152 at $7.38 SL=5.75
BUY PUT JUL-75*IQU-SO OI=430 at $4.62 SL=2.75

Average Daily Volume = 955 K

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=INTU&d=3m    

Another Inflation Report?

U.S. stocks ended higher on Tuesday but investors were cautious
ahead of an upcoming report on the May Consumer Price Index.

Monday, June 14

Blue-chip stocks rebounded as bargain hunting investors returned
to the market after last week's slump. The Dow was up 72 points
at 10,563. Internet and technology stocks were hammered as the
Nasdaq index fell almost 50 points to 2,398. In the broad market,
declining stocks edged out advancers 1,677 to 1,308 on moderate
trading of 667 million shares on the NYSE.

Sunday's new plays (positions/prices):

CUBE AUG30C/JUN35C	$4.00  debit (as low as $3.81 at 10:30 am)
CUI  JUL40C/JUN40C $0.00  debit (no play - merger announced!)
REV  JUL22C/JUL25C $1.75  debit ($1.00 lower in early trading;)
REV  JUL22C/JUL30C $4.00  debit (both plays better-than-expected)
SNDK OCT30C/OCT35P	$12.50 debit (probably as low as $12.38)
COHR NOV17C/NOV17P $4.50  debit (option prices inflated)

An extremely volatile market today and most of our positions had
to be adjusted for the bearish activity. CUBE fell right from the
open but the 'short' side (OTM) options held up well, allowing a
better entry price. The CUI play evaporated as British passenger
transport company Stagecoach announced early Monday morning that
it had agreed to take over Coach for $1.2 billion; $42 per share.
REV was down about $1 in early trading but aggressive traders
moved quickly into the lower priced options. Both of the spread
positions were available at better-than-expected prices; priced
at 9:50 am and we chose the conservative play. SNDK was oblivious
to the overall market movement and depending on when the position
was opened, the debit could have been as low as $12.38.

COHR had to be played right at the open as new interest in the
long-term positions snapped the option premiums back into line.
A market-priced trade was filled around 9:40 am for $4.62 debit
but the option premiums quickly rose 10% without any move in the
stock price. The options were trading at about $5.50 credit by
the end of the day and that small change in implied volatility
has made the position profitable after just a few hours. Just
another unique lesson in theoretical option pricing that all of
us must learn in order to profit consistently from volatility
and disparity plays.

Portfolio plays:

Wow, what a day! Now you know why we strive to exit profitable
plays early and minimize losses. Many of our previously closed
positions fell into the NASDAQ abyss with the sell-off. The big
loser continues to be AMZN and this may be the first time in
months that Murphy's law has not stepped in to help after we
close the play for a loss in the portfolio (usually, when we
announce an early exit of a position at a loss, the stock price
rebounds, producing a profitable end-result that we can't claim
in the summary). MER looks like it is going to remain in the
under $70 category, leaving our volatility spread deep in the
red. Other stocks in the long-term portfolio are also showing
signs of defeat; these include PG, SGP, and SEPR. We will make
a decision about those issues on the next oversold rally; when
and if there is one.

Tuesday, June 15

U.S. stocks ended higher on Tuesday but investors were cautious
ahead of an upcoming report on the May Consumer Price Index. The
Dow closed up 31 points at 10,595 after a morning rally faded
late in the day. The Nasdaq technology index ended up 16 points
at 2,414.67, rebounding from Monday's Internet sell-off. In the
broader market, advancing issues edged out declines by a small
margin on moderate volume of 692 million shares on the NYSE.

Portfolio plays:

There were a few positive movers with the small rebound we
had today. HRC climbed $1.38 on news that Standard & Poor's
affirmed its credit ratings. Nabors and Halliburton rallied
with the oil service stocks; an exit is available on the NBR
diagonal spread for a $1.00 profit. Cendant continues to trade
near $20 and there is no reason to hold that bullish position
any longer; it is currently at maximum return. Motorola led
the LEAPS/Covered-Calls portfolio with a nice $4 rally. Time
Warner and Polaroid both rebounded but unfortunately, they were
previously closed to limit losses. PRD did renew our faith in
Murphy's Law, closing profitable after we exited the play for a

Questions and comments to ray@OptionInvestor.com
				- NEW PLAYS -

Oil industry issues continue to rally as technology and Internet
stocks search for direction. Here are some conservative, low risk
positions that may help you diversify your portfolio...
GLM - Global Marine  $16.12   *** Multiple Upgrades ***

Global Marine is a holding company that engages in various
businesses through its operating subsidiaries. The company is
a major international offshore drilling contractor with a
modern, diversified fleet of mobile offshore drilling rigs.
They also own a special-purpose mobile offshore rig designed
for arctic operations. In addition, Global provides offshore
drilling management services and participates in oil and gas
exploration, development and production activities.

The drillers have been performing well with the recent rally in
oil issues and this company is leading the way in the lower
priced issues. Recent upgrades have come from Lehman Brothers,
Salomon Smith Barney, Schroder & Company and Robinson Humphry.

The recent chart history is very positive with excellent buying
pressure on steady volume. Today's rally moved the stock to a new
26 week high and the short-term MACD is bullish. We will use the
small disparity in the July ITM options to open a conservative,
low risk position.

PLAY (conservative/debit spread):

BUY  CALL JUL-12.50 GLM-GV OI=3360 A=$3.75
SELL CALL JUL-15.00 GLM-GC OI=3243 B=$1.62
INITIAL NET DEBIT TARGET=$1.87 ROI(max)=33% B/E=$14.37

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=GLM&d=3m
ESV - ENSCO International  $21.25     *** More Rigs ***

ENSCO is an international offshore drilling contractor that also
provides related oilfield services. Ensco owns 33 offshore rigs,
including 23 jack-up and 10 barge rigs. Subsidiary Ensco Marine
has a marine transportation operating fleet of 35 oil support
vessels, including 6 anchor-handling tugs, 21 supply vessels,
and 8 mini-supply vessels.

This company participates in the same type of activity as GLM
and the list of recent upgrades includes have come from Lehman 
Brothers, Salomon Smith Barney and Schroder & Company.

In this case, we find that the technicals support a neutral to
bullish outlook and the option premiums offer us better entry
point and overall risk/reward position if we alter our strategy
to a long-term, time spread.

PLAY (conservative/calendar spread):

BUY  CALL SEP-22.50 ESV-IX OI=350 A=$2.62
SELL CALL JUL-22.50 ESV-GX OI=417 B=$1.12

Note: In this type of spread, we are reducing the net cost of the
long-term option with the credit from the sale of the nearer-term
option. If the near term call expires worthless, we may hold the
long-term position for future profits or sell a July call to
further reduce our debit. There are many other ways to exit this
type of position and you should review those techniques with your
broker prior to entering the play.

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ESV&d=3m
HAL - Halliburton Company  $47.69     *** Oil Services Leader ***

Halliburton provides energy services and engineering and
construction services. The Company is comprised of two business
segments. Halliburton Energy Services provides a wide range of
services and products to provide integrated solutions to its
customers in the exploration,development and production of oil
and natural gas. Engineering and Construction Services includes
services for both land and marine activities.

Halliburton has received its share of oupgrades over the past few
weeks and today, Lehman Brothers and ING Barings joined the group
of bullish advisors. The company is a leader in the oil services
industry, providing services to all of the diverse segments; what
better way to take advantage of the the sector rally.

Moody's Investors Service upgraded the company's debt ratings on
Monday based on a revised legal structure following its merger
with Dresser Industries. The report made the following comments:

HAL is the largest player in the oilfield services industry and
they have the financial resources to make significant investments
in leading-edge technology and make niche acquisitions to broaden
its product capabilities. It will also have the geographic reach
to offset a downturn in industry activity in one region with
strength in another. The company's financial position will likely
remain stronger than that of most of its oilfield service company

How's that for a positive outlook? The favorable option pricing 
and bullish outlook provide us with an excellent opportunity to 
enter a conservative, long-term position.

PLAY (conservative/calendar spread):

BUY  CALL JAN-50 HAL-AJ OI=4341 A=$6.87
SELL CALL JUL-50 HAL-GJ OI=1432 B=$1.75

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=HAL&d=3m



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