Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 07/15/1999

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The Option Investor Newsletter         Thursday  7-15-99
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings.
************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
        7-15-99          High     Low     Volume   Advances Decline
DOW    11186.41 + 38.31 11217.76 11149.37  801,756k  1,827   1,053
Nasdaq  2839.37 + 21.24  2840.03  2813.52 1117,000k  2,267   1,715 
S&P-100  726.88 +  5.30   727.43   721.58   Totals   4,094   2,768
S&P-500 1409.62 + 11.45  1409.72  1398.17            59.7%   40.3%
$RUT     465.80 +  4.34   465.80   461.46
$TRAN   3397.03 - 24.48  3434.51  3386.24
VIX       19.69 -  0.69    20.80    19.09
Put/Call Ratio      .60    
*************************************************************


Where's the rally?

Did I miss something? The CPI number on Wednesday could not have been
better. The PPI number today was unchanged overall and only +.01% for
the core rate. Flat for the second month in a row. Very market 
friendly. The retail sales figures were tame and the unemployment 
numbers showed a +11,000 rise in claims. The bond is trading under 
6% at 5.91%. Earnings are coming in mostly higher than expected and 
the marketshould be rocking. So where is the beef?

Terms like "wall of worry" and "dangerously overbought" are making the
rounds on CNBC. Abbey Joseph Cohen was very cautious in her wording 
today as she was interviewed. She likes the "long term" outlook and
is still bullish on techs which in her words "are not quite fairly
valued". She sees no storm clouds on the horizon and her economic for
the third quarter was good. Did she raise her forecast on the Dow? 
No, nope, nada. Her firm, which has a target of 10,300 for the 
year, did say they would consider it later in August. 

Elaine Garzarelli, long a bull, said her internal indicators are
nearing the bottom trigger point which would turn her bearish. Not
yet but getting closer. She does expect another rate increase by the
Fed in August and said there was rumors of rate hikes worldwide which
could slow the global recovery. Several of the indicators she watches
are creeping up into dangerous territory. The NAPM for instance has
shown an increase in prices for four months in a row. Price increases
will eventually be seen as bearish signs of inflation. The Columbia
survey has shown the economy growing at a +4.5% rate for several 
monthsand normally precedes the government numbers by several months. 
These are the things that market technicians are concerned about.

The DOW is trading in a very tight range when it should be exploding
based on the economic reports. Why? 

 


Except for the gap downs on Tue/Wed the Dow has been in a 50 point
range for the week. 50 points during an earnings cycle! We appear
to be stuck just under 11200. Don't get me wrong. Stuck is better
than falling. The longer we stay here bumping our head on 11200 the
better chance we have at busting through on a solid base. The
downside would be if we run out of earnings news before the breakout.
We would then have nothing to keep us going. Granted we did not have
much profit taking last week from the +500 point run and we could
be undergoing a stealth correction or consolidation. Time will tell.

The Nasdaq is still setting records and tech is still where the money
is going. Actually we should probably say thanks because I believe
the Nasdaq is holding up the Dow.

 


This is a good solid chart. Up three days, rest, up three days,
rest, up two days.....  Good, obvious cycle that you can trade
with the down days to take the pressure off. The Nasdaq closed
at the high of the day but the DOW was -32 points from the top.

I think we are stuck here because investors are worried. Some
point to the Greenspan testimony on the 22nd as the next mile post
in the rally. They want Greenspan to bless the economic numbers
again. This is an excuse by lazy analysts. The numbers could not
be any better. The Fed went back to neutral. His testimony is
still a week away. I think investors are scared of history
repeating itself. Most retail investors, people like us, have
a very short memory. Funds and institutional investors who do 
this as a business are not as big on risk taking as the troops.
Because of this they analyze every conceivable factor. 

What I think they are worried about is a repeat of the past two
years. August 7th 1997 began a sharp drop of -600 points which
led to an even bigger drop in October. The market was at 8300, 
an all time high the day before. July 20th 1998 started a
drop of -1900 points from its all time intraday high of 9374
that day. Is there any wonder that investors with a memory 
longer than three months could be queasy? In both instances there
was a strong earnings run the weeks preceding. The market was
at an all time high. The DOW had run up almost exactly +2000
points since Jan 1st each year. Investor sentiment was very 
bullish. 

Contrast those years with this year. The DOW on Jan 1st was
9183. We closed today at 11186, +2,003 points. Could cautious
investors be selling into the earnings rally? It is possible.
With $10 bln coming into mutual funds weekly the last couple
weeks, why are we not moving up. I think it is caution by the
big boys who can read historical charts. They know if they are
patient they MAY be able to buy at a significant discount soon.
Now throw in the Y2K unknown. I got another newsletter this week
advising clients to sell everything over the next six weeks and
wait for the buying opportunity of a lifetime at year end. If
only 5% of the readers of every newsletter that is recommending
this action actually take it then it will be a self fulfilling
prophecy. 

Am I crying wolf? Do I look like chicken little? I hope not!
I am only trying to make sense out of the ramblings of hundreds 
of "experts". My suggestion is not to sell everything and shift
into money markets. My suggestion is simply "be aware" of the 
market tone and look for subtle shifts that could warn of trouble
ahead. Maybe a shift like no rally on good earnings AND good
economic news. Nobody knows for sure and everybody is just
guessing. If you act like an ostrich and hide in the sand you
could get caught in a huge downdraft. The two week drop from
intraday high to intraday low starting August 7th 1997 was -600 
points. The three week drop starting July 20th 1998 was -1000
points. Do you think everyone was expecting those big numbers
the day it started? Of course not. This is a perfect case for
stop losses. You never know if the next drop is "the big one"
or just profit taking.

If the market charges off tomorrow to another new high then
mark my comments off as the ramblings of a frustrated analyst.
It will not have cost you anything. If sometime in the next
couple weeks the market turns and you are ready to pull the
trigger, then I will have done my job. You be the judge.
 
Have a great weekend!

Jim Brown
Editor




**************
SEMINAR UPDATE
**************

On behalf of OptionInvestor and George Fontanills of OPTIONETICS 
we are declaring the OIN summer seminar series as SOLD-OUT.

For all you folks that have already attended the Boston and Los 
Angeles events thank you for your support and for the lucky people 
who signed up for the Dallas and San Francisco seminars ..."enjoy". 

Don't forget you can still take  the "OptionInvestor Home Study 
Course" .. featuring George Fontanills and his OPTIONETICS 
methodology demonstrating high profit low risk and low stress 
option trading. The home study package comes in either audio or 
video format and allows a future attendance at a OIN/Optionetics 
seminar for FREE. So you get the best of both worlds. Study in 
the comfort of your own home and then attend a seminar in the 
Fall for FREE. If you sign up now you can also reserve a place 
for a companion in the seminar for FREE. As you now know space 
is limited and you should sign up today to avoid being disappointed 
for the live seminar."

email dana@OptionInvestor.com for details.





***************
Market Posture
***************


As of Market Close - Thursday, July 15, 1999 

                   Key Benchmarks
Broad Market       Bearish/Bullish  Last    Posture/Since  Alert
****************************************************************

DOW Industrials   10,500  11,000  11,186    BULLISH   7.01
SPX S&P 500        1,315   1,355   1,410    BULLISH   7.01
OEX S&P 100          660     690     727    BULLISH   6.29
RUT Russell 2000     390     450     466    BULLISH   6.29

NDX NASD 100       2,110   2,220   2,429    BULLISH   6.29
MSH High Tech      1,010   1,080   1,240    BULLISH   6.19

XCI Hardware         900     950   1,067    BULLISH   6.17
CWX Software         675     700     822    BULLSIH   6.17
SOX Semiconductor    410     425     529    BULLISH   6.10
NWX Networking       525     545     618    BULLISH   6.25
INX Internet         500     510     527    BULLISH   7.01

BIX Banking          680     720     701    Neutral   6.29
XBD Brokerage        410     425     432    BULLISH   7.01
IUX Insurance        645     660     648    Neutral   6.29

RLX Retail           900     910     950    BULLISH   6.29
DRG Drug             370     400     376    Neutral   7.01
HCX Healthcare       750     800     777    Neutral   7.01
XAL Airline          180     190     167    BEARISH   5.21
OIX Oil & Gas        285     310     313    Neutral   5.13



Posture Alert
Slow and steady. The market continues its uptrend course, with a slew
of corporate earnings that have exceeded analyst expectations. The 
30-yr bond continues to hold below 6% which can only help this market. 
The Networking sector led the charge today with a +3% gain, followed 
by Retail +1.3%, and Oil & Gas +1.1%. No changes to the posture board.


A detailed description of our Market Posture and its
applications can be found at:

/members/marketposture





****************
Market Sentiment 
****************


Thursday, July 15, 1999 


The Pinnacle Index Part II!

Below is an updated list of equities and our Pinnacle Index for those 
particular stocks. What we look for are liquid stocks/options that 
garner a lot of interest from the investment community. Most of the 
issues are high tech, and are thus more aggressive. We then filter out 
many of the equities, only to show stocks with excessive optimism or 
pessimism. From a contrarian standpoint (a high number is a good 
indication of extreme optimism, and a low number is a good indication 
of extreme pessimism) you should buy when its low, and sell when its 
high. For example, below you can see that Microsoft, Lucent, HP, 
Tellabs, and Motorola, Citrix, and a few others with asterisks next to 
them. These numbers are extremely high, and based on a contrarian 
standpoint, we would be willing to sell stock near those levels. 
During the last letter, we spoke about the Optimism going into 
Motorola's earnings and the Pessimism going into Intels. Well, from 
a sentiment standpoint, those stocks acted the next day like we 
expected (MOT sold off even on better-than-expected numbers, while 
INTC rallied even though they missed their numbers). Tonight after 
the close, Gillette reported poor earnings. Even though they 
dissappointed, based on the sentiment, this was expected. We will
 be interested to see how the 40 level holds, considering the extremely 
bearish sentiment at that level. 



Stock       Symbol    Strike Price       Pinnacle Index
      
Motorola     MOT      95 / 100 / 105     3.6 / 8.3 / 23.1 *
Intel        INTC         / 65 / 70          / 1.5 / 13.3 * 
Altera       ALTR     35 / 40 / 45       1.6 / 1.1 /  1.3
Gillette     G        40 / 45 / 50        .8 / 1.8 /  1.9
E-Trade      EGRP     35 / 40 / 45        .8 / 2.9 /  6.7
Amazon       AMZN    130 / 135 / 140     1.9 / 2.1 /  2.3 
IBM          IBM     130 / 135 / 140     2.6 / 1.9 /  8.6
Gateway      GTW      65 / 70 / 75       1.1 / 1.6 /  0.6
Lucent Tech  LU       70 / 75 / 80       2.9 / 3.7 / 28.0 *
Microsoft    MSFT     90 / 95 / 100      3.2 / 6.7 / 52.0 *
Sun Micro    SUNW     70 / 75 / 80       3.8 / 9.7 / 51.0 *
Tellabs      TLAB     65 / 70 / 75       1.4 / 2.1 / 19.0 *
Schwab       SCH      50 / 55 / 60       1.2 / 4.8 / 12.3 *
Hewlett P.   HWP     110 / 115 / 120     3.2 / 5.1 / 48.0 *
AtHome       ATHM     45 / 50 / 55        .5 / 1.0 /  2.0
Lycos        LCOS    100 / 105 / 110     1.8 / 4.8 /  5.4
Dell Comp.   DELL     35 / 40 / 45        .6 / 2.3 /  8.6
Novell       NOVL     25 / 30                  7.4 / 20.4 *
Oracle       ORCL     35 / 40                  1.7 / 16.7 *
MCI-Worldcom WCOM     85 / 90 / 95        .4 / 1.6 /  4.6
Ericcson     ERICY    25 / 30 / 35       2.3 / 2.8 /  2.9
Citrix Syst. CTXS     60 / 65 / 70       6.7 / 22  / 55.0 *
Cisco Syst.  CSCO     65 /67.5/ 70       2.4 /11.8 / 13.4 *
Qualcomm     QCOM    150 /155 /160       2.8 / 2.9 /  7.3 
America Onl. AOL     125/127.5/130       2.3 / 3.8 /  3.9
Compaq Comp. CPQ      25 /27.5/ 35       1.9 / 2.6 /  3.3
AT&T         T        50 / 55 / 60        .2 / 1.4 /  9.1
Pfizer       PFE      35 /36.6/ 40       1.8 / 2.8 /  7.9



***Rambus       RMBS     85 / 90 / 95        .4 /  .7 /  1.2

*If you go back to Tuesday's letter, you will see that Rambus had the 
most bearish sentiment of any stock that we listed. With a +25 point 
gain two days later, you can definitely get a better idea of how 
powerful sentiment analysis can be. The Rambus sentiment above is from 
Tuesday...for informational purposes only. With it's large gain, it no 
longer falls into our criteria.   



 


 


 





Bullish Signs:


Interest Rates:
The 30-yr Treasury is beginning to retrace back under the key 6% 
level.

Investor Intelligence:  
As a contrarian indicator, the percent of Bullish investors 
decreased by over 3% and the percent of Bearish investors increased 
by 2%.

Russell 2000: 
Trending above both moving average, and also above key 450 benchmark.




Mixed Signs:

Market Posture:
Several indexes are showing signs of a potential rollover, including 
the Dow, OEX, networking, software, and semiconductors.

Advance/Decline Line:
After checking up last week, the A/D line is beginning 
to roll over and could prove Bearish if decliners out pace advancers 
in the week ahead. 

 

BEARISH Signs:
  
 
Peak Open Interest:  
The contraian put-call ratio clocking in at .97 suggesting bullish
sentiment picking up steam.






OTM Call Analysis

As we move through July's expiration cycle, Pinnacle is tracking 
the level of call buying (OTM) between 680-750 among option
speculators. As we have been documenting, excessive out-of-the-
money (OTM) call may serve as overhead resistance.


July Expiration Cycle
OEX OTM Call Analysis (Open Interest July 680-750)
Date                 Open Interest     Change %    Alert

Friday, June 19           35,225        -
Friday, June 25           63,342        +79.8%
Friday, July 02           87,833       +149.3%
Friday, July 09           99,855       +283.5%

Market Sentiment at a Glance     Friday     Tues      Thurs  
Indicator                        (7/09)    (7/13)    (7/15) Alert

Pinnacle Index (OEX):          

                    
Overhead Resistance (720-750)      7.9       6.1      5.9
Underlying Support  (685-710)      1.3       1.9      2.0
                    (650-710)      2.1       2.7      2.8

Put/Call Ratios:

CBOE Total P/C Ratio                .5        .5       .5
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio               .4        .4       .3
OEX P/C Ratio                      1.5       1.2      1.2


Peak Open Interest (OEX):

Puts                              600        680      600
Calls                             730        725      750
P/C Ratio                          1.01       1.08     .97

Market Volatility Index (VIX):	

CBOE VIX                          19.09      20.46      19.69



Investors Intelligence:

Bullish                         55.20%  *
Bearish                         26.70%  *


The Power of Sentiment Analysis

It has often been said that the crowd is right during the
market trends but wrong at both ends.  Measuring and
evaluating the sentiment of the crowd, therefore, can give
savvy option traders a decided edge.

 
OEX Pinnacle Index              Friday      Tues      Thurs
Benchmark                        (7/09)    (7/13)    (7/15)

Overhead Resistance (720-750)    7.9         6.1       5.9

OEX Close                        722.68    719.79    726.88 
 
Underlying Support  (685-710)    1.3         1.9       2.0  
                    (650-710)    2.1         2.7       2.8  

 
Average ratings: 
Resistance levels 2.0 / Support Levels .5

What the Pinnacle Index is telling us:
Overhead sentiment resistance is building at the OEX 725/750 level 
while the underlying support is holding at the OEX 685/710 level.


Put/Call Ratio                  Friday     Tues       Thurs
Strike/Contracts                (7/09)    (7/13)     (7/15)


CBOE Total P/C Ratio             .54       .55        .49
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio            .40       .42        .32
OEX P/C Ratio                   1.48      1.15       1.23


Peak Open Interest    Friday           Tues            Thurs
Strike/Contracts     (7/09)           (7/13)         (7/15)

Puts                 600 / 12,089     680 / 12,503    600 / 12,196
Calls                730 / 11,917     725 / 11,571    750 / 12,558
Put/Call Ratio       1.01             1.08            .97




 


 






Volatility Index    Major
Date                Turning Point       VIX

October 97          Bottom              54.60      
July 20, 1998       Top                 16.88         
October 8, 1998     Bottom              60.63
January 11, 1998    Top                 26.38
March 4, 1999       Bottom              28.15   
May 14, 1999        Top                 25.01 

July 15, 1999                           19.69  *




 








Investors Intelligence Major          Percent     Percent
Date                Turning Point     Bullish     Bearish

October 97          Bottom            22.0        48.3       
July 20, 1998       Top               52.0        24.0         
October 8, 1998     Bottom            38.5        42.7
January 11, 1999    Top               58.3        30.0
March 4, 1999       Bottom            49.1        32.5

January   6, 1999                     58.3        30.0   
January  13, 1999                     60.0        30.0   
January  20, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
January  27, 1999                     60.7        28.2   

February  3, 1999                     60.0        26.7   
February 10, 1999                     61.7        25.9   
February 17, 1999                     55.7        28.7   
February 24, 1999                     54.1        31.5   

March 3, 1999                         50.9        32.1   
March 10, 1999                        49.1        32.5   
March 17, 1999                        52.6        17.6     
March 24, 1999                        55.9        29.7     
March 31, 1999                        55.6        31.6     

April 07, 1999                        56.4        31.6     
April 14, 1999                        55.9        30.5     
April 21, 1999                        56.4        30.8     
April 28, 1999                        56.1        30.7     

May 05, 1999                          58.1        27.6     
May 12, 1999                          56.9        31.0     
May 19, 1999                          60.9        28.7      
May 26, 1999                          61.6        27.7 
June 2, 1999                          61.6        27.7  
June 10, 1999                         58.3        28.7  
June 16, 1999                         58.8        26.3 
June 24, 1999                         57.5        26.5  
June 30, 1999                         55.8        25.7  
July 07, 1999                         52.6        27.2  
July 14, 1999                         55.2        26.7 *






Please view this in COURIER 10 font for alignment
*****************************************************
CHANGES THIS WEEK


Index       Last    Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu   Week
Dow      11186.41   7.28 -25.96 -26.92  38.31  -7.29
Nasdaq    2839.37  -2.63 -12.21  39.90  21.24  46.30
$OEX       726.88  -1.02  -2.07   1.79   5.30   4.00
$SPX      1409.62  -4.18  -5.54   4.61  11.45   6.34
$RUT       465.80   4.55  -1.19   3.35   4.34  11.05
$TRAN     3397.03   4.57 -26.29  15.91 -24.48 -30.29
$VIX        19.69   0.75   0.39   0.15  -0.69   0.60

Calls               Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu   Week

SNE        126.25   3.13   0.56   2.56   5.63  11.88  What a week
VRIO        82.56   0.09   2.16   0.25   5.31   7.81  Up again
TXN        153.25   1.19  -1.44   3.69   3.25   6.69  2:1 split
SEPR        93.75  -0.19   0.75   2.38   3.63   6.56  New, rising
HWP        113.00   0.44   2.19  -0.88   4.56   6.31  Price target
LU          77.63   1.63  -0.88   2.31   2.63   5.69  Fund buying
NXTL        54.69   1.44   1.38  -0.13   2.00   4.69  More ratings
NXLK        97.44   4.72  -5.97   0.56   5.13   4.44  Another 2:1
GTW         72.00   2.13  -1.44   4.94  -1.25   4.38  Hot sector
QCOM       152.97  -1.31  -3.06   5.19   3.41   4.23  Strong close
EXDS       140.06   3.44  -4.31  10.94  -6.38   3.69  Support $140
VOD        209.75  -0.38  -4.50   4.00   3.50   2.63  Channeling 
NOK         97.00  -1.50  -0.31   2.38   2.00   2.56  New high
MSFT        94.38   0.94  -0.56   1.31  -0.56   1.13  Dropped
DELL        43.94   0.81  -1.38   1.25   0.44   1.13  Be patient
SUNW        73.75   2.25  -1.69   1.63  -1.38   0.81  Split??
ABOV        43.94   0.25  -0.63   0.88  -0.31   0.19  Dropped
BBY         76.19  -0.31  -0.81  -0.31   1.63   0.19  Consolidate
SLR         71.94  -1.44  -0.94   2.63  -0.25   0.00  Up and down
TMCS        34.88   1.38  -1.00  -1.00   0.63   0.00  Buy rating
CSCO        66.56  -1.44  -0.38   0.06   1.25  -0.50  More volume
SONE        47.50  -0.38  -1.81   2.31  -0.88  -0.75  Dropped
DCLK       101.88  -8.94   2.50  -1.44   6.81  -1.06  Big jump
IBM        137.88   0.44   0.06  -0.63  -0.94  -1.06  Earnings??
COST        84.00  -1.38  -0.69   0.19  -0.06  -1.94  Dropped
DRIV        32.63  -2.06  -0.63   0.75  -0.69  -2.63  Dropped
MSPG        47.00  -2.25  -0.63   1.25  -2.50  -4.13  Dropped
RNWK        87.50  -4.88  -0.75   2.00  -1.25  -4.88  Net play
BRCM       138.50   0.63  -3.88  -0.75  -1.25  -5.25  Bounce??
AOL        121.00  -5.94   2.81  -2.13  -2.00  -7.25  Yikes!
CMGI       112.25  -8.19   1.06  -2.06   0.44  -8.75  Dropped

Puts

WPI         35.00  -0.75   0.06  -0.88   0.63  -0.94  Looks weak
FDX         48.44   0.19  -0.81   1.25  -0.69  -0.06  Oil prices 
JCP         46.25   0.25  -0.69   0.13   1.13   0.81  Resistance
IMNX       125.00  -6.75   3.50   3.50   5.75   6.00  Dropped
SAPE        54.00   2.50   0.00   2.25   1.50   6.25  Dropped





****************
PICKS WE DROPPED
****************
When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time. 
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


CALLS:
******


MSPG $47.00 -2.50 (-4.13)  This has been a pretty good week for 
the NASDAQ as a whole.  Unfortunately, about the only thing 
springing out of MSPG is a thumb and forefinger in the shape of 
an "L" on its forehead (the "Loser" sign).  The bloom is off the 
rose and investors have turned their attention elsewhere.  Since 
Earthlink reported only a penny above forecast last night, and 
the merger rumors have died down for this sector, it's time to 
move on.  We're not saying that a merger won't eventually happen.  
We just don't want to gather dust waiting.  Besides, earnings are 
1 week away on July 22, and we would have to close the play on 
July 20 in front of earnings anyway.  

MSFT $94.38 -0.56 (+1.13) It looks like this play is ending 
early.  Earnings are July 19 (company confirmed), 1 trading day 
following expiration of July contracts - only 2 trading days 
left, and they better be good.  Otherwise, the MSFT options 
specialists are going to take all those JUL-95 premiums home in 
their pockets tomorrow night.  Support is still $92, but MSFT 
needs volume to get over $95, something it likely won't get on a 
summer Friday.  Option expiration day might help things in this 
case, but don't count on it.  Consider exiting this play tomorrow 
on any strength.  Gunslingers only may want to hold through 
Monday and sell their positions then, but that definitely bucks 
the odds.  You want to be out by the time MSFT announces their 
earnings.  There just isn't that much time left to get a nice 
run, so we're dropping MSFT tonight.

ABOV $43.94 -0.31 (+0.19) We are going to leave ABOV by the
wayside for the time being.  Earnings are due to come out
July 23rd. There still may be time to get in a small earnings
run.  The reason we are letting ABOV go is not that it went
the wrong direction, it's that it really never went anywhere.
The $42.00 area may prove to be good support and AboveNet may
resume its upward trend prior to the earnings release.  The
last few days the Internet sector has been somewhat dull and 
we will look elsewhere for new opportunities.

COST $84.00 -0.06 (-1.94) Here's one that just never really
went our way.  Tuesday and Wednesday COST seemed to find a 
bottom in the $83.00 area.  It may prove to be a bottom.
However it MAY NOT.  Today it looked as though COST might
have found new life as it started to advance on decent volume
in the morning.  Around lunch time it hit $85.81 and then
fell apart with some solid volume behind it.  The retail sector
was positive today and we still believe there are some great
opportunities in this sector.  We will look elsewhere in the 
industry at this time. 

SONE $47.50 -.88 (-.75)  Even though SONE made a nice gain
yesterday, the stock couldn't hold on to this momentum as the
stock lost just under a dollar today.  SONE is another Internet
play that just can't break out to the upside and though earnings
are coming up, we can't continue to recommend the stock.  The
$50 level has been strong resistance and until we see SONE break
this level, we are dropping it as a play.

 
***** Play updates continued in section two *****




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education 
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation 
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The Option Investor Newsletter         Thursday  7-15-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


Call drops continued:



CMGI $112.25 +.44 (-8.75)  CMGI finished with a minor gain today
after losing a little over $2 on Wednesday.  Interest in the
stock has been anemic as volume today was 25% of normal.  CMGI
has not shown any strength this week and even though volume
has been light, we don't like the way the stock is looking.  
With CMGI earnings not until September, it seems there is nothing 
to push the stock higher, so we will drop the stock until we see 
some momentum.

DRIV $32.63 -.69 (-2.63) DRIV lost ground again today and we
don't like the looks of the stock going forward.  It seems the
Internet sector is having a hard time moving higher and even
with earnings in the near future, we feel there are better plays
then DRIV.  The stock has been trading very light volume and
we will watch to see how it reacts in the future before adding
it back to our list.  Thus, we are driving on to other plays.

NXTL $54.69 +2.00 (+4.69)  Today Nextel reported a 2Q loss, 
yet it beat the Street's estimates.  NXTL came in at -1.04 
ahead of the -1.35 p/s loss expected.  They also reported 
record domestic subscriber growth of 440,000 new additions.  
Moreover, top-level management was rearranged within the 
company.  Chairman and Chief Executive, Daniel Akerson, 
will now work with wireless pioneer, Craig McCaw, at his 
Eagle River Investments.  President, Tim Donahue, is being 
promoted to Chief Executive and Craig McCaw (founder and 
major investor in Nextel) will serve as the new Chairman. 
Everyone was happy today and NXTL traded above $56 late 
afternoon.  Analysts came out of the woodwork too.  Gerard 
Klauer Mattison reiterated their "buy" rating and set a 
target price at $81.  Davenport & Co raised their rating to 
a "buy" from "hold", but set a lower target price from $73 
to $78.  SoundView also went to the press and reiterated a 
"strong buy" rating on NXTL.  Nonetheless, after hitting 
its newest high at $56.19, NXTL succumbed to profit-takers 
and declined for the remainder of the day.  We're dropping 
NXTL at this time because we stick by our recommendation 
not to hold over an earnings' announcement.  There are very 
few exceptions.  Most stocks will decline immediately or 
very soon after and of course, this is not the environment 
to begin a new call play.  [editor's note: Yes, we are 
dropping them but on principle only.  It is quite possible
that with an earnings surprise this strong that NXTL could
rally for a few more days.  Sorry. - Kimo]



PUTS:
******


SAPE $54.00 +1.50 (+6.25) SAPE was able to form a bottom this 
week and is now bouncing after the huge declines from the past 
two weeks.  We got started on the right foot for our play on 
Monday when SAPE was initiated by SG Cowen with a neutral 
rating.  Of course what they really mean by that rating is 
‘You’d be crazy to buy this stock right now but if I give the 
stock anything lower than neutral, the company will never 
speak to me again’.  But that was the end of recent bad news 
and the stock is now bouncing.  It’s tough to say exactly how 
much spring the stock will have since the drop was so far 
but its current movement is obviously not conducive to put 
buying in the near-term.  

IMNX $125.00 +5.75 (+6.00) Just when we were ready to pat 
ourselves on the back after a $7 drop after the first day, 
IMNX hit the 100-dma and bounced right back to where it was.  
On Thursday it even moved back above the 50-dma, where it 
has spent most of its time the past year.  The rally stems 
from great earnings from Amgen which is one of the first drug 
companies to report.  This is creating positive momentum 
ahead of next week when most companies will report.  Also 
on Thursday IMNX announced that they have filed with the FDA 
to expand use for their stellar drug Enbrel.  For these 
reasons we are removing Immunex from the put list.




*****************************
Insider Trading - Staff Plays
*****************************

Today - Buzz recaps a play from last week.


For as much as we traders like to talk high-mindedly about 
remaining "market neutral" (the ability to trade calls and puts 
in both up and down markets without emotion), we are for the most 
part, unashamed bulls.  In my own case, I frankly admit that I 
needed some brushing up on identifying and playing good puts.  

Usually, my strategy is to plan the picks I want to play on 
Sunday evening by copying those that look interesting to a new 
Word document.  From there I edit ruthlessly until I have the 
plays down to about 10 lines each, which specifically include the 
strikes of the trading range in which I intend to play.  By the 
time I'm done, I have from 4-10 plays which I might like to be 
in.  First thing Monday and for the rest of the week, I pick the 
play to enter based on what I know to be true at that time.  Yes, 
the plan is fluid and sometimes changes as market conditions 
change.  Even so, most of my plays are calls, covered calls or 
spreads.  I rarely go long on puts.

That said, I had YHOO on my mind last week before Monday's 
opening since I knew that YHOO would report earnings after the 
close on Wednesday and that whatever happened to YHOO might rub 
off some sympathy to other Internet plays.  I figured earnings 
would be great because they always are.  YHOO always tends to 
surprise substantially to the upside.  But no matter how good 
earnings had been in the past, YHOO always fell after the 
announcement even when accompanied by a split.  In short the 
chart was compelling - almost a no-lose guarantee if I could 
tolerate the risk of typical Internet volatility.  Even so, YHOO 
was not on my plan sheet.  Take a peek at the following chart to 
see the predictability.


 


On this 1-year chart, 3 out of 3 previous times that YHOO 
released earnings, the stock got pounded.  It may have taken a 
day or 2, but it still got hit.

Anyway, I looked at this chart again the night that earnings were 
released and decided YHOO would become my "back burner" play.  
Just in case nothing else looked playable that day, maybe YHOO 
would look good as it blipped across my radar screen. 

Thursday morning YHOO opened up and continued to rise pretty 
steadily for the first 2 hours of trading, which to me was kind 
of unusual considering how much we, myself included, harp on the 
frequency of declines after earnings reports.  The phenomenon 
seemed especially prevalent this earnings season, with most 
investors getting out a day or 2 ahead of reports.  So needless 
to say, a rising Internet stock, which had not unexpectedly 
reported earning at the high end (that is to say, no decimating 
blow-out), had caught my attention since I thought it was going 
the wrong way.  It should have been going down but it wasn't!  So 
I watched in real time for the next 3 minutes. . .$172. . .$173. 
. .$174. . .$174.50.  Uh oh!  It stalled and began heading south 
more rapidly than when it was going up and the volume was 
increasing.  (Volume is one of my 2 favorite indicators to watch.  
The other is price.)

In elapsed time of about 4 minutes, it had come full circle back 
to $173 and volume was increasing.  On a daily chart broken into 
5-minute increments, it looked like it was about to become an 
upside-down "T", or shooting star.  That's where over a 
particular period of time (in this case, 5 minutes), the little 
tick marks on the bar, which point left at the beginning at the 
period (indicating the starting value for the period) and right 
at the end of period (indicating the finishing value for the 
period) began and finished at the bottom of the bar corresponding 
to that 5 minutes.  It also looks like that nail sticking 
straight up in the middle of the road that gave you your last 
flat tire.  Let me tell you, it will take the air out of a stock 
just as fast.  Technicians will tell you that it's a deadly sign 
and a good time to sell if you are long, or go short.  It's also 
a great time to buy a put!

That was my cue.  YHOO had just become my front burner play that 
met my conditions for a good entry.  I wasted no time in getting 
an order set up on the screen to send.  I figured with that 
strong of a signal, YHOO had a long way to fall and my timing was 
good.  So, with the last trade at about $173, the corresponding 
bid/ask was surprisingly tight at $7.63/$7.88.  I didn't want to 
get too greedy and let the opportunity slip away, so I placed a 
limit order to buy JUL-170 puts at $7.75 figuring the specialist 
would fill the order rather than raise the bid price.  Besides, 
this was YHOO after all, a fast mover that trades multiple 
hundreds, if not thousands of contracts per day in some strike 
prices.  He wasn't going to change the topography of the action 
just to accommodate my little trade.  Whaddaya know?  Filled in 1 
minute with confirmation.  The on-line broker had its act 
together at that moment. . .go figure.  By then the price had 
fallen into the $172 range.

Right about then, YHOO found temporary relief from the selling.  
Impulsively, (no, emotionally) I second guessed that maybe it was 
about to head up and that I'd bought at exactly the wrong time.  
However, in about 4 nanoseconds, I recalled why I made the trade, 
which reassured me that I'd made a pretty good buy, but I never 
stopped to figure out where or at what price I would get out of 
this play.  By now, I'd already broken 2 of the 10 trading rules 
(the first was trading on impulse, since I'd never really planned 
to enter a put play on YHOO).  

Immediately I went back to the 5, 10, and 30-day charts, then the 
3-month and 1-year charts looking for support and resistance.  
Actually, the 10 day chart alone probably would have sufficed, as 
it showed YHOO to have short-term support at about $160-$162.  I 
figured with such a big time premium for a current month option 
on a volatile stock, delta (the amount of price change in the 
option compared to price change in the stock) might be lower than 
the usual +/- 50% for an ATM call.  Doing the math, with 10 
points to fall in the stock, I figured conservatively that that 
would be good for something slightly less than $5 of gain, thus a 
selling price of $12.75.  But what if the market runs to another 
new high (which it did)?  YHOO may be carried with it.  Naw. . 
.remember the 1-year chart and the shooting star.  Nonetheless, 
let's not be greedy.  I then entered a limit order to sell the 
whole position if it hit $11.  I checked back from time to time 
over the next few hours, but YHOO had traded flat in the $170-
$173 range.

You've heard it before - a watched pot never boils.  The chart 
was on my side, but I was getting impatient and a bit nervous 
that the trade might go against me.  So I left the computer until 
about one half hour before the close.  If I didn't limit out 
then, I'd just set another limit sell order in the morning, 
knowing that YHOO would eventually trade down.  Remember, I'd 
done the homework.  PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE.  Stick to the plan.  
That was going through my head.

Upon my return, I was impressed to see that my $7.75 position was 
now bid (the price at which the specialist was willing to buy) at 
$10 and had been rising for the previous hour.  Remember, since I 
was playing puts, the more YHOO dropped, the more I made.  To get 
to the point, the bid crossed $11 and made it up to about $11.38 
just 15 minutes before the close.  Because I had my limit order 
set, I was limited out at $11 for a profit of $3.25 on a $7.75 
investment, or about 42% return for a 1-day play.

Yes, YHOO did continue to fall and I could have stayed in for a 
few more $$$.  But I'd decided from bad trading experiences long 
ago that it's always better to take profits when they are 
available, especially when they come that quickly.  A reversal of 
fortune is usually just around the corner for me if I get too 
greedy.  I've learned to feel satisfied with the tangible reality 
of small profits rather than screw up good trading psychology 
with the hallucination over what might have been.  I know I'll 
never go broke taking a profit.  Besides, I've found that 
seller's remorse negatively interferes with the next trade.

Now, they don't all go this way.  In fact, it's pretty rare to 
move that much that fast.  But the lesson here is that if you get 
conviction by knowing a stock's trading pattern or trend and your 
pre-planned conditions for entry are met, you should have the 
expectation of a good outcome.  I probably wouldn't have entered 
this play if I were fairly new to trading, since I doubt I would 
have been able to immediately identify the opportunity when it 
presented itself.  That's where doing your own research and 
understanding past trends can really pay off.

If you can pick just 5 companies in which you in which you learn 
everything about them - their news events, trading patterns, 
trends, support and resistance and volume patterns, you too will 
be extremely successful at this business.

It's not hard.  It just takes some discipline, which may be the 
hardest part of trading.

Buzz,
research analyst




*****************
PICK NEWS - CALLS
*****************


TXN $153.25 +3.25 (+6.69) Boy, you would think with a $3.25 price 
spike after the bell that TXN announced great earnings after the 
close.  NOT!!  Instead, how 'bout that 2:1 split we'd been 
referring to?  You got it!  They announced it after today's 
close, but will still report earnings on July 20 (company 
confirmed).  Shares will begin trading at their split level on 
August 16.  Their last split (2:1) was in November 1997 at about 
$100.  That they announced the split before earnings is a dead 
giveaway that they have full confidence of pleasing Wall Street 
with the earnings number next week [editor's note: I'm not so
sure about that.  TXN has been very strong and so has the 
semiconductor industry but that doesn't mean you should hold
over earnings - ever.  -Kimo].  Usually, this is a sign to 
back up the truck and load up all you can get, however, we 
STRONGLY URGE YOU NOT TO DO THAT, as it violates rule #1 of 
trading, which says not to put all your eggs in 1 basket.  The 
risk of Murphy's law working its magic is just too great.  If you 
violate the rule, use risk capital only.  You don't want to be 
buying at the height of euphoria only to see the price reverse as 
soon as you take a position.  (Also, Efficient Networks, in which 
TXN owns 13%, launched its IPO today. . .priced at $15, closed at 
$51.13. . .nice going!)  

QCOM $152.97 +3.41 (+4.22) QCOM and Lucent Technologies (LU), 
today announced an agreement to jointly develop and promote 
standardization of a technology for locating the point of origin 
of an emergency (911) wireless phone call.  That's about the only 
news today.  Yesterday, investors forgot all about that 3% 
dilution of shares that will result from the sale of 4 mln. 
shares directly to index funds.  It just wasn't that big of a 
deal.  Anyway, earnings are Tuesday, July 20, at approx. 1:30 
p.m. PST (company confirmed).  Again, we point out that this 
dilution could be management signaling their confidence in the 
future.  Oh yes, another new high today too.  We like the strong 
close on an uptick with increasing volume, which bodes well for a 
few more $$$ of profit in the next 2 trading days before 
earnings.  If history is any indication, there is also a strong 
likelihood of a 2:1 split.  Nonetheless, this is a volatile 
(a.k.a risky) play.  Keep your stops set in case of a downdraft.  
If you enter a quick play before earnings, confirm market 
direction first.

CSCO $66.56 +1.25 (-0.50) While not looking like a winner for 
much of this week, CSCO has been consolidating, which is OK with 
us.  The longer the base, the stronger the earnings run.  It 
won't report earnings until August 10 (company confirmed), so 
there is plenty of time to scale into a position.  As we noted 
Tuesday, we need to see volume return, which will be our signal 
to take a position.  We saw a slight increase in volume today, by 
about 6% - no great shakes, but not bad.  CSCO is now back over 
the $66.50 level, just $2.69 shy of an all-time high.  After 
that, nothing but blue sky.  If it clears and holds $67.06, and 
you see volume that could take CSCO over 16 mln. shares traded, 
feel free to get in.  Just remember to confirm market direction 
before starting a new play.  If you are already in CSCO with a 
profit, don't let it slip away.  You can always buy back in 
cheaper.

DELL $43.94 +0.44 (+1.13) Broken record: "plan your entry and 
wait to get it.  You won't be missing any earnings run, since 
earnings won't be announced until August 18 (company confirmed).  
Surprisingly, there isn't much in the news, so let's go to the 
technicals.  Dell's strength has been impressive and there has 
been an opportunity to play it once or so this week, but you had 
to be nimble to do it.  DELL has been as low as $41.50 intra-day 
Tuesday, and as high as $45 intra-day today (huge resistance 
thanks to investor psychology that says, "I'd love to break even 
on this stuff and sell it if it ever gets to $45 again."), but 
these were spikes in either direction.  It's too early to start 
an earnings run, but DELL might be playable in the $40-$45 range.  
You can bet there will be some weakness on which to buy the dip 
in the next 2 weeks.  Conservative types, wait until you find 
your entry at the low end of the range.  DELL will come to us 
before August 18.  Be patient and wait for it.

EXDS $140.63 -6.38 (+4.25)  EXDS has traded in an $11 range over 
the last 2 days - $137 to $148, where the action has been quick.  
Literally, you have needed to watch this one with electricity in 
your veins to catch the moves.  EXDS currently sits at $140 
support.  Market willing, we'd expect a bounce from here, as 
earnings are scheduled Wednesday, July 21 after the close 
(company confirmed).  Something to be concerned with though is 
the close near its low, despite reaching a new all-time intra-day 
and high  of $148.19 today.  Even so, the technical chart still 
looks strong.  Their CEO made the airwaves today too and stated 
that though they were in a quiet period, they were expanding 
geographic data centers at breakneck speed, thanks to industry 
migration toward their business model (server farms), and the 
addition of 2 new major customers per day.  Bet on earnings to be 
good (but still, don't hold a position then).  More news, 
yesterday Banc of America Securities started coverage with a buy 
rating and a price target of $170.  It's not for the conservative 
investor types.  Target shoot your entry for intra-day dips and 
know our exit before you start a new play. 

RNWK $87.50 -1.25 (-4.88)  RNWK rose $2.00 yesterday, but lost 
$1.25 today on volume that was less than half the average. In 
fact, volume has been shrinking each day this week, after 
investor interest in the Internet waned following the Disney/
Infoseek deal. Today initially looked good, but the stock began 
slipping in the afternoon. It wound up dropping $3.88 from the 
day's high of $91.38, and it closed near the low of the day. 
The only saving grace was the anemic volume. RNWK reports 
earnings Tuesday, July 20th after the market closes. We are 
still hopeful for a late earnings run, but we recommend starting 
new options only on rising stock price and rising volume. In 
the news: RNWK is joining forces with the Associated Press to 
offer a new audio and video news service for use on AP's media 
members' web sites. Real Networks will provide the streaming 
audio and video over its online network. In addition, IBM 
announced that it is bundling RealPlayer G2 on its Aptiva and 
ThinkPad i Series PCs.

IBM $136.31 -.94 (-1.07)  After setting a new all-time for 6 
out of 7 trading sessions in a row through Tuesday, IBM has 
taken a breather the last 2 days. (Compaq, and Apple also fell 
today.) This slight pullback to catch its breath may allow IBM 
to make a final move up before it announces earnings, which 
will be Monday, July 19th. IBM sometimes makes nice intra-day 
highs, so watch for one to close out your trade. In a joint 
promotional deal, AOL's Compuserve will offer rebates for 
Internet access contracts for customers who purchase Aptiva or 
ThinkPad I Series computers. Also, IBM will be included in the 
Dow Jones Indexes' new "Global Titans Index". In other news, 
Unisys, which offers some of the same computer services that 
IBM does, reported strong quarterly numbers this afternoon. 
It earned $.38/share versus $.24 for the same quarter last 
year. Analysts' estimates were for $.33. These numbers suggest 
a lot of growth in at least one area of IBM's business and bode 
well for its own earnings release.

NOK $97.00 +2.00 (+2.56)  Right on target, Nokia headed higher 
again following a few days of consolidation. Good numbers out 
from Motorola set the stage for NOK's move, as it rang up a 
$2.37 gain yesterday and a $2.00 gain today. The stock also 
set a new all-time high of $98.00 this afternoon. Stocks don't 
move up in a straight line. They usually move in cycles of 
several days up, followed by a day or more down to regroup
before they start up again. Nokia is now ready to move up 
toward its earnings announcement, market permitting. The 
company reports Thursday, July 28th, BEFORE the opening bell, 
so plan to close your trades by the close Wednesday night.

BBY $76.19 +1.63 (+.19)  BBY took off after it was added to the 
S&P 500 and grabbed $16 of non-stop gains. It needed 5 days to 
consolidate after that performance. Today, it finally saw a 
positive day again, as it gained $1.63. A high growth retail 
stock like BBY will do best in a low inflation environment, 
when all the great electronic equipment it offers remains 
affordable. Low interest rates make financing relatively 
inexpensive, so consumers can keep on buying the latest upgrade 
or innovation. With benign PPI AND CPI numbers, and a period 
of consolidation behind it, the stock is now poised to rise 
again, market permitting. 

BRCM $138.50 -1.25 (-5.25)  After setting a new all-time high 
on Monday in a very volatile day of trading, BRCM has lost 
ground the last four days in a row. Volume has been light. 
It appears that dwindling interest in the Internet stocks 
this week has applied to BRCM as well. Although it is a semi-
conductor stock, it trades with the Internet and communication 
stocks as much as the semis. Today it failed to bounce off 
its 10 dma moving average, although we could still see a bounce 
tomorrow. BRCM will announce earnings Wednesday, July 21st, 
after the close. Before entering new options on this stock, 
be sure to confirm upward movement on good volume. BRCM has a 
consistent record of beating earnings estimates and delivering 
awesome growth. Investors may yet give this stock the earnings 
run we are looking for. If they don't, it could take off after 
earnings, if the company delivers yet again.

SNE $126.25 +5.63 (+11.87) What a week! Sony has powered ahead
$11.87 in the last four days.  Up $5.63 for the day on volume
of 447K, the strength of SNE has even amazed us.  Sony hit
another 52 week high (of $126.88) which is beginning to become 
an everyday occurrence.  It has made a new high for the last
six sessions.  Technically SNE is starting to look a bit
overbought.  However, the way it moved today with the volume
and strength would certainly suggest there is more room to the
upside.  The benchmark Nikkei edged higher to end at 18431.86
which is its highest closing price this year.  It hit a high
of 18,459.51 and was met with strong selling pressure.  What
we are saying here is make sure you keep moving your stops up
on Sony.  We would be cautious about entering a new play at this
time, as SNE is due for a pullback or a bit of profit taking. 
If that occurs we would look at Sony to initiate a new position
(after the profit taking appears finished).

GTW $72.00 -1.25 (+4.37) Gateway started out somewhat flat on
Wednesday, but after lunch the buyers came back with their 
stomachs full and ready to do business.  GTW traded in a $2.00
range until after lunch.  There was no apparent reason for the
sudden interest in PC makers other than Apple (AAPL) beating
estimates by a nickel.  Dell (DELL) kicked in about the same time 
yesterday. It may have just taken that long to sink in.  Gateway
went on to close $4.94 higher yesterday, on better than average
volume of 1.8 mln. shares.  Today GTW continued moving higher,
another $2.50 before running into overhead resistance at $75.75.  
Profit taking set in and GTW finished the day down $1.25.  The
$70-$72 area should provide support for GTW.  The industry has
gained strength this week and we believe today’s action is a
point for consolidation before the next move higher.  As always
keep your stops in place and confirm market strength and direction 
before entering any new plays.

SLR $71.94 -.25 (+0.00) SLR made a new high right out of the box
Monday morning.  Solectron hit $73.25 in the first three hours 
of trading Monday. Since that time SLR has been in a drifting 
mode. It drifted lower to $69.31 on Tuesday.  Wednesday the 
volume was up and so was the price.  SLR closed higher by $2.63
on Wednesday.  What is interesting to note is the spasmodic
volume that accompanies SLR, 1.9 mln. one day and 900K the next.
1.30 mln. is average.  We are looking for SLR to continue its
winning ways.  Technically the upward channel is still in tact.
We will need to see some additional strength in SLR if its
going to keep our interest.  No news at this time that would move
SLR.  Adjust your stops accordingly.  Wait for a positive move and
don't forget to check the volume before entering a new position.

TMCS $34.88 +.63 (+.00)  TMCS gained slightly on Thursday after
dropping a dollar on Wednesday.  The stock got good and bad
news on Wednesday.  The good news was the initiation of TMCS
by Banc of America as a "buy" with a price target of $55.  The
bad news was the announcement by Alta Vista to enter the 
e-commerce hosting business.  "It is directly competitive with 
what Ticketmaster-CitySearch is doing and with what any other 
local Internet site would be offering local merchants," Bruce 
Murray, Zip2's vice president of marketing, told CNET News.com 
in an interview from Chicago, where the new program is to be 
unveiled.  TMCS bounced back today, but it will be interesting 
to see what effect this news will have over the near term on TMCS.  
Watch for the stock to stay above $33, as this has become
short term support.

VOD $209.75 +3.50 (+2.63) We mentioned on Tuesday that VOD
had been in a downturn for four days, but the stock tends to
channel.  As if by design, VOD turned around on Wednesday and
has gained over $7 in the last two days.  Volume was heavier 
today, a sign that more investors were buying the rally.  We 
like VOD going into its annual meeting on July 21st.  It is 
expected the company will announce a 4-1 split.  Unfortunately, 
VOD is an ADR, which causes the stock to gap up or down on the 
open.  Do not put in a market order after the close, because 
there is no way to know what price you will get on the open.  
VOD was maintained on Goldman Sachs "recommend list" today.  
Another sign of confidence in the stock.

LU $77.63 +2.63 (+5.69)  We added LU as the play of the day on
Wednesday night and the stock has responded.  In the last two 
trading days, the stock has gained just under $5.  Earnings
are around the corner on the 21st of July and many feel LU will
announce very strong earnings.  Fidelity Investments showed
today that LU has been one of their top buys over the second
quarter and the stock was reiterated "outperform" at Sanford
C. Bernstein.  LU announced today the purchase of fiber-optics
maker SpecTran for $99 million.  LU feels this will add additional
products and market niches.  

DCLK $101.88 +6.81 (-1.06) The dip on Monday turned out to be 
exactly what we need to open new plays.  DCLK consolidated 
earlier this week and is back in rally mode.  There was no 
other recent news to fuel the rally since the announcement 
of the purchase of NetGravity.  We are now hitting right on 
the 50-dma which DCLK has tried to break through for the 
past couple weeks.  This may be a point to take profits if 
you were able to get in on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Anyone 
who has yet to open a play or has more of a conservative 
investment strategy should wait for a break above resistance.
Also set your stops to lock in profits at this level.  
Earnings are on Monday so we will be looking to drop DCLK 
as play on the Sunday.    

***** Play updates continued in section three *****




*****************************
SEE DISCLAIMER IN SECTION ONE
*****************************








The Option Investor Newsletter         Thursday  7-15-99  
Copyright 1999, All rights reserved. 
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


Call updates continued:


AOL $121.00 -2.00 (-7.25) AOL is at a critical point in our 
play.  We have less than a week before earnings and the 
stock is sitting right on support at $120.  AOL fell on 
Thursday because of the quarterly report issued by Fidelity 
Investments.  They issue a report on their mutual funds 
which show the top ten holdings of each fund.  Apparently 
AOL has fallen out of the top ten in many funds.  This is 
fueling rumors that institutions are selling.  It could be 
true so we are encouraging caution on this play.  We still 
expect an upward move over the next couple days in 
anticipation of earnings but keep your eye on the important 
$120 mark.   

SUNW $73.75 -1.38 (+0.81) SUNW traded lower today despite 
the strong market but it still has held above the 10-dma.  
This is the trend it has shown for the past couple weeks 
that has made it an attractive play.  We see this pattern 
continuing ahead of earnings next Thursday.  Today can be 
chalked up as a bit of profit-taking since there wasn’t 
any major news.  Volume was less than average for the last 
two days but it should pick up on Friday as investors start 
shopping for stocks with earnings next week.  You may want 
to consider any break of support at the 10-dma as time for 
your stops to pull you out of the play.    
 
VRIO $82.56 +5.31 (+7.81)  VRIO shot up over 5 points today 
on news of a $300 mln. private, preferred stock offering. 
6 mln. shares of the 6.75% Series A convertible preferred 
stock are being offered to institutional investors.  These
new shares can be converted to common stock at $96.56 
(or a 25% premium over VRIO's closing price yesterday at
$77.25). The offering will close on July 20th.   Verio 
plans to use the proceeds to fund acquisitions and other 
company investments.  After the recent purchase of 
digitalNATION for $100 mln. cash and the $42.5 mln. used in 
March for AOL to provide exclusive Web-page hosting, Verio 
will certainly welcome the cash.  The excitement was 
evident today with triple the normal trading volume and 
another new 52-week high at 83.50.  This is the 7th 
consecutive day of gains.  Expect a pullback soon.  

HWP $113.00 +4.56 (+6.31)  This split candidate flew 
upwards today after a short-term downdraft to $107.06.  HWP 
profited gains of over $5 at one point and set its latest 
52-week high at $113.50 during the last minutes of trading.  
Volume was slightly above average.   Yesterday, the stock 
also stepped up into new territory, however after the early 
morning swell, it settled into a narrow trading range 
around $108.  That same day Merrill Lynch analyst, Steve 
Milunovich, raised his target price to $122 from $100.  He 
believes HWP is "hitting new highs thanks to the upturn in 
H-P's business and the rising tide carrying Internet 
infrastructure vendors."   Hewlett Packard was also given 
highest honors in the 'Channel Champions' survey conducted 
by Computer Reseller News.  This is the 6th consecutive 
year HWP has had the highest reseller's satisfaction rating 
in both scanner and laser-printer categories.  Earnings are 
expected on August 16th.

NXLK $97.44 +5.13 (+4.44)  Surprise, Surprise!  Nextlink 
announced they are having a 2:1 stock split payable on 
August 27th!  The Board of Directors made the announcement 
today, but stated the split is subject to shareholders' 
approval of increasing the number of authorized shares.  
According to information we previously had for NXLK, 
there's 110.33 mln. shares authorized and only 35.76 mln. 
issued; therefore plenty of shares available for the 
proposed 2:1 stock split.  OIN has contacted Investor 
Relations at Nextlink requesting further information 
regarding this issue.  As soon as we get a satisfactory 
response to our inquiry you'll get the inside information.  
On the news today, NXTL tested its near resistance (the 52- 
week high of $98.44 set on Monday) and traded consistently 
in the $97-98 range.  Volume was moderate.  Due to the 
spikes Monday and today it's difficult to determine a 
relative support level.  Looking at a 10-day chart it 
appears to be around $91 and $93.  Earnings are expected at 
the end of the month on July 30th.  


****************
PICK NEWS - PUTS
****************


FDX $48.44 -.69 (-.06)  FedEx gained $1.25 yesterday, following 
a company report that its Asian cargo growth rate was 20% year 
over year. Taiwan's express shipping was especially strong. 
Today however, FDX gave back $.69, as a warning from US Airways 
helped drag down the transportation sector. In addition, oil 
futures reached record highs today, suggesting that investors 
are looking for higher oil prices. High oil prices are bad 
news for all the airlines. Use caution here. FDX is down in 
price because it's quarterly earnings did not exceed the 
market's high expectations. High oil prices and a weak 
transportation sector will continue to depress the stock. 
However, FDX is a strong company long term, and it will continue 
to issue news wires touting any positive news on the company 
in an effort to stop the price slide. 

JCP $46.25 +1.13 (+0.81) JCP made its move today but ran into 
resistance and turned lower.  It sounds too simple but that 
is essentially what happened.  All stocks eventually bounce 
after a decline and JC Penney got their bounce today.  But 
it wasn’t strong enough to push past the 10-dma at $47.25.  
In fact, as soon as it hit, it came right back down.  The 
stock ended up closing $1 off its intraday high.  This is 
encouraging to see from a technical standpoint.  We are urging 
caution though.  Any move above $47.25 should produce a rally 
up to the $49 level so keep your stops set.  

WPI $35.00 +0.63 (-0.94) A biotech rally prompted a little 
interest in WPI but not enough to change momentum in the 
stock.  Sure, Watson gained 0.63 today but that is only a drop 
in the bucket compared to the $30 its lost this year.  Granted 
we are dealing on a very short timetable but Thursday’s gains 
weren’t enough to push it back above any moving averages.  
So it looks like nothing more like a small relief rally but 
we expect more weakness ahead of the questionable earnings 
report a couple weeks away on August 12.  This should be 
viewed as a potential entry point but don’t forget your 
stops just in case.





**************
NEW CALL PLAYS 
**************


SEPR - Sepracor Inc $93.75 +3.63 (+6.50 for the week)

Sepracor researches, develops, and commercializes improved 
compounds of existing pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals.  
These products are new and patented formulas.  They can 
provide the consumer with fewer side effects, improved 
safety, new uses, and even refined dosages.  For instance, 
Sepracor made Allegra as an alternative to Seldane, which 
the FDA had pulled its approval of in 1997.

In this drug and biotech industry mergers are becoming the 
watchword as more companies are consolidating.  Last month, 
Sergio Traversa of Mehta Partners named Sepracor as a top 
takeover pick; especially by an overseas company searching 
for more US exposure.  Then in a BusinessWire article 
today, Pharmaceutical & Biotech analyst David Saks of 
Gruntal & Company stated he foresees the industry's 
earnings as positive and believes "as more drugs are 
approved by the FDA the biotech sector should do well".  
Put all that together and you have the ingredients for a 
profitable earnings run.  SEPR is expected to report in a 
couple weeks on August 6th.  

Last week, SEPR broke free and found a new support level at 
$85 and $87.  This put it right on its 10 dma.  Yesterday 
SEPR cracked its nearterm resistance of $88.75 and tested 
new waters above the $90 mark.   Upward direction was 
further confirmed today as SEPR tacked on another $3.63 on 
strong volume.  You may have to look intraday for an entry 
point at this new level. Of course, watch out for profit 
takering and use stop losses.  

Note:  Due to the recent run-up there are no AUG strikes yet 
 available above 90.

BUY CALL AUG- 85 ERQ-HQ OI= 68 at $13.13 SL=10.75
BUY CALL AUG- 90*ERQ-HR OI=549 at $ 9.75 SL= 7.25
BUY CALL OCT- 95 ERQ-JS OI= 69 at $12.50 SL=10.00
BUY CALL OCT-100 ERQ-JT OI=272 at $10.50 SL= 8.25

Picked on July 15th at   $93.75    PE = N/A
Change since picked       +0.00    52 week high=$140.87
Analysts Ratings      3-3-5-0-0    52 week low =$ 42.25
Last earnings 03/99  est= -1.10    actual= -.93 surprise=15.45%
Next earnings 08-06  est= -1.22    versus= -.63
Average daily volume = 779 K
Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/Q?s=SEPR&d=3m





*************
NEW PUT PLAYS 
*************


none today



***************
PLAY OF THE DAY
***************


CSCO - Cisco Systems $66.56 +1.25 (-0.50 this week)

Sunday's Write up

Cisco's the big kid on the network block.  The leading supplier 
of products that link LANs and WANs, Cisco Systems controls 
about 85% of the global market for routers and switches, which 
direct information on a network.  The company's other products 
include dial-up access servers and network management software.  
Cisco is using acquisitions (more than 30 since 1993) to 
broaden its product line and is licensing products to widen 
the influence of its Cisco Internetwork Operating System 
(Cisco IOS) software, hoping to make it an industry standard.  
Strategic relationships with the industry's biggest players 
(including Alcatel, Microsoft, Qwest, and U S WEST) are 
boosting Cisco's influence on the networking industry.

Still a great looking technical chart, but no change for the 
week doesn't make us any money.  In fact we lose some thanks 
to time value erosion of current month strike prices.  After 
a strong run, CSCO just took the week off.  However, this is 
earnings season and the overall market is advancing.  CSCO 
doesn't report earnings until August 10 (company confirmed), 
so it may take another week of consolidation before it finds 
its legs.  Despite slacking volume on Wednesday, Thursday, 
and Friday, the lows were getting higher - a good sign.  It 
confirms the consolidation.  Friday, support jumped up to 
$66.50, where buyers propped up the price on 3 occasions - 
another good sign.  For options traders of quality issues, 
consolidation can be viewed as generally a good thing since 
it deflates option premiums, creating buying opportunities for 
the patient investor in anticipation of predictable breakouts.  
In short, scaling into an August position will likely yield 
the highest gains in anticipation of earnings.  Target shoot 
your entry in anticipation of a quick NASDAQ correction if 
your risk profile allows it.  Otherwise confirm market 
direction before starting a new play.

Tuesday’s Write up

“CSCO doesn't report earnings until August 10 (company 
confirmed), so it may take another week of consolidation 
before it finds its legs."  Remember that from Sunday?  
$66.50 support proved to be short-lived too, as CSCO got 
caught in the market downdraft yesterday and today.  If 
there's any good news, it's that CSCO dug itself out of the 
sub-$65 hole in last 2 hours of today's trading, though 
volume was average at about 14.8 mln. shares.  Nothing in 
the news, just a good old-fashioned consolidation, which 
will most likely affect CSCO until volume returns, which 
then will be our signal to take a position.  Of course, 
confirm market direction before starting a new play.

Thursday’s Write up

While not looking like a winner for much of this week, CSCO 
has been consolidating, which is OK with us.  The longer the 
base, the stronger the earnings run.  It won't report 
earnings until August 10 (company confirmed), so there is 
plenty of time to scale into a position.  As we noted Tuesday, 
we need to see volume return, which will be our signal to 
take a position.  We saw a slight increase in volume today, 
by about 6% - no great shakes, but not bad.  CSCO is now 
back over the $66.50 level, just $2.69 shy of an all-time 
high.  After that, nothing but blue sky.  If it clears and 
holds $67.06, and you see volume that could take CSCO over 
16 mln. shares traded, feel free to get in.  Just remember 
to confirm market direction before starting a new play.  If 
you are already in CSCO with a profit, don't let it slip away.  
You can always buy back in cheaper.

BUY CALL AUG-60 CYQ-HL OI= 4359 at $8.50 SL=6.50
BUY CALL AUG-65 CYQ-HM OI=11033 at $4.75 SL=3.00
BUY CALL AUG-70*CYQ-HN OI=18058 at $2.38 SL=1.25 we’re brave
BUY CALL OCT-70 CYQ-JN OI=11484 at $4.88 SL=3.25

Picked on June 29th at  $62.50    PE = 107
Change since picked      +4.06    52 week low =$20.56
Analysts Ratings   19-12-0-0-1    52 week high=$69.25
Last earnings   05/99 est 0.37    actual 0.38 surprise = 2.7%
Next earnings   08-10 est 0.40    versus 0.32
Average daily volume =14.97 mln.




*****************
COMBINATION PLAYS   
*****************
Positive Inflation Report Eases Wall Street Fears...

U.S. stocks made new gains Thursday on the favorable outlook for
inflation and corporate earnings.

Wednesday, July 14

U.S. markets were mixed Wednesday with blue-chip stocks lower
and technology issues higher as investors shifted more funds
into computers, communications and Internet stocks. The Dow
fell 26 points to close at 11,148 while the technology-driven
Nasdaq rose 39 points to a record high of 2,818. The S&P 500
index rose 4 points to close at 1,398. In the broader market,
advances outnumbered declines by 1,527 to 1,394 on volume of
745,530,920 shares. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond fell 7/32,
pushing the yield up to 5.92%.

Tuesday's new plays (positions/prices):

Cisco Systems  CSCO  OCT55C/AUG65C  $9.00  debit
Solectron      SLR   OCT60C/AUG70C  $8.38  debit
Network Assoc. NETA  AUG15C/AUG17C  $1.87  debit
Network Assoc. NETA  SEP20C/JUL20C  $2.31  debit

Both of the diagonal positions (CSCO and SLR) were opened in
the first half-hour of trading and neither was available at
the recommended 'net-debit' target. NETA was also on the move
in early morning trading. There were a number of players in
the bullish spread but I didn't see any simultaneous orders
filled at less than $1.87; there were also a few at $2.00.
For those in the speculation play (volatility spread), the
position was available at slightly less than the suggested
entry price near 9:45 am.

Portfolio plays:

Polaroid (PRD) was hit hard as analysts lowered estimates for
the instant photography company's earnings after officials said
that the overall strength of the U.S. dollar against European
currencies meant it was facing a $10 - $20 million risk in the
second half of the year. Whether the news was good or bad, we
still aren't in the play, but it is making a useful study in
time selling strategies. Believe it or not, if we were to now
sell the August $25 call against our original position; October
$25 call, the entire cost of the play would be about $0.25.
Intel (INTC) rose $2.62 to $68, despite disappointing earnings,
because Wall Street liked the chip maker's future prospects.
Today's move to August positions, that we spoke of on Tuesday,
was worth about $2.25 credit at the $65 strike. Titanium Metals
continued yesterday's rally, tacking on another $1.06 to close
just above the sold strike at $12.75. It's probably a good time
to move the short position forward to next month. Revlon (REV)
appears to be back-tracking slightly but both of the call-debit
plays are in a positive position; you may consider exiting them
to avoid any future loss. Our credit-spread strangle on British
Telecom (BTY) moved back to the center of the profit envelope
today and the entire position can be closed for a favorable
profit.

It appeared that some of the recent Corporate Express (CEXP)
speculators were exiting their long positions today; the Oct-10
call was trading at $0.18, on the bid side, early this morning.
We still aren't sure whether it was a good idea to take the
small premium at the open or hold on to an OTM option, hoping
that a change to the merger agreement will produce a profit.

Today's August adjustments (new positions/prices):

Intel Corp.      INTC  OCT65C/AUG65C  $1.75  debit
Cisco Systems    CSCO  OCT57C/AUG65C  $4.12  debit
Apria Healthcare AHG   SEP20C/AUG20C  $0.87  debit
National Semi    NSM   NOV15C/AUG20C  $4.00  debit
Titanium Metals  TIE   OCT12C/AUG12C  $0.12  debit
Paxson Comm.     PAX   SEP15C/AUG15C  $0.19  debit
Newmont Gold     NEM   SEP22C/AUG20C  $0.12  credit

Only the short-term positions (1999) will be listed prior to the
monthly summary.

Thursday, July 15

U.S. stocks made new gains Thursday on the favorable outlook for
inflation and corporate earnings. The Labor Department reported
the Consumer Price Index was unchanged in June after showing no
change in May. The Dow ended up 38 points, just short of last
Friday's record. The Nasdaq composite index rose 21 points to
end at 2,839, its second consecutive high this week. The S&P 500
index also set a new high, rising 11 points to 1,409. In the
broader market, advancing issues beat declines 1,827 to 1,053
on active volume of 796 million shares on the NYSE. 

Portfolio plays:

Sandisk (SNDK) just continues to amaze! We had previously held an
October debit straddle on that unique stock but unloaded it for a
$5.50 profit (1 month) in late June. Now the stock is trading at
$69 and the position is worth over $40. (OUCH!) Another recent
straddle; Ocular Sciences (OCLR), made a nice last minute effort,
rising $1.00 to close in the $18 range. Unfortunately, our play
was previously closed at a small loss. Motorola (MOT) was again
a big mover, climbing almost $5 to finish just short of $100. We
were unable to take advantage of the rally as our long-term play
has already been rolled forward to August. Home Depot (HD) and
Sepracor (SEPR) were also stand-outs in the long-term portfolio
but once again, our short options had already been moved forward
into August.

Network Associates (NETA) came right back to us today; the stock
price finished below the sold option in our two month volatility
spread. The key is that options volume remained heavy and implied
volatility is still at fairly high levels as new takeover rumors
continue to circulate. With any kind of small rebound, tomorrow
may offer the perfect opportunity to sell the new short (August)
position. The goal will be to lock in at least a small profit for
the overall play.

I had two requests this week for bullish plays on large Internet
stocks. One of the readers was interested in favorable synthetic
positions; in this case, buy call - sell put, to take advantage
of bullish movement with a cheaper position. These types of plays
are very difficult to find and the downside risk is fairly large.
I did manage to locate a favorable debit spread on his primary
candidate, Qualcomm (QCOM), and a couple of low risk positions
on AMZN. Because of time constraints, I won't be able to publish
the Amazon play in today's section but the most conservative
position I was interested in was the AUG105C/AUG120C; at a debit
of $12.50.

Questions & comments on spreads/combos to ray@optoininvestor.com
******************************************************************
				- NEW PLAYS -
******************************************************************
QCOM - Qualcomm Inc.  $152.96     *** Reader's Request ***

Qualcomm Incorporated is a leader in developing and delivering
innovative digital wireless communications products and services
based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. Their major
business areas include CDMA phones; integrated CDMA chipsets and
system software; technology licensing; satellite-based systems
including OmniTRACS and portions of the Globalstar) system.

QCOM has a positive future now that they have favorably resolved
a dispute with Ericsson concerning patents for 'code division
multiple access' wireless technology, and sold its unprofitable
base station manufacturing operations. Patent royalties are now
expected from substantially all CDMA manufacturers and will apply
to equipment built for the next generation of the 'global system
for mobile telecommunications' (GSM) wireless technology used
throughout Europe and elsewhere, starting in about three years.

The big news today was an agreement with Lucent to develop and
promote standardization of a technology for locating the point
of origin of an emergency wireless phone call. This advanced
technique is based on QUALCOMM's innovations in CDMA handsets
and ASIC chip technology, and networking research from Bell
Labs, Lucent's research and development arm.

The method combines signals from a constellation of Global
Positioning System (GPS) satellites and CDMA standard cellular
& Personal Communications networks. It will help establish an
industry solution to allow emergency personnel to locate any
wireless phone user in distress no matter where they are in a
carrier's network.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor's gave QCOM a double-'B' corporate
credit rating, double-'B' bank loan rating, and single-'B'
preferred stock rating with positive implications. The rating
follows the company's filing of an offering to sell 4 million
shares stock and based on the recent stock price, the offering
could generate over $550 million.

The sale is expected to fund their potential $1 billion in
finance commitments, its expanding working capital needs, and
provide additional financial flexibility to support the
company's evolving handset and other businesses.

Technically, a bullish chart with support near the cost basis.

PLAY (conservative - bullish/debit spread):

BUY  CALL AUG-125 AAW-HE OI=197 A=$32.00
SELL CALL AUG-140 AAW-HH OI=959 B=$21.00
INITIAL NET DEBIT TARGET=$11.00 ROI(max)=36% B/E=$136.00

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=QCOM&d=3m
******************************************************************
COOL - Cyberian Outpost  $13.50     *** New Trend ***

Cool has been a leader in global e-commerce since 1995. They have
a website, Outpost.com, the Internet superstore for computer
products, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Outpost.com provides
consumers and other purchasers of computer products superior
selection, quick and easy search capabilities, and product
information on over 160,000 hardware, software, and peripheral
products. With a safe and secure credit card payment system, fast
and direct international shipping, Outpost.com offers exceptional
value and service to its customers worldwide.

The stock price is making a comeback and today it climbed another
$1.62 to finish at $13.50. Some think the new bullish trend might
be based the recent buyout of Egghead (EGG) by Onsale (ONSL) but
analysts also say it's one of the better priced (second-tier)
Internet issues based on the price-to-sales multiple. A positive
fundamental assessment with the favorable technical trend make
this a low cost, conservative position for those who want to
participate in the Internet rally.

PLAY (conservative - bullish/covered-combo):

BUY STOCK - COOL ASK=$13.62
SELL CALL AUG-12.50 QOO-HV OI=483 B=$2.38
SELL PUT  AUG-12.50 QOO-TV OI=121 B=$1.43
INITIAL NET DEBIT/COST BASIS TARGET = $11.12
OVERALL ROI - COMBINED POSITION (margin)=24%

Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=COOL&d=3m
******************************************************************
INDEX OPTION SPREADS...
******************************************************************
As a trader, you may be familiar with options on individual stocks
where you have the right to buy (call option) or the right to sell
(put option) a particular stock at some predetermined price within
some predetermined time. The buyer has the rights and the seller
the obligations. With index options the basic ideas are the same.
Index options allow you to make investment decisions on a specific
market industry or on the market as a whole. Spread strategies can
be made with index options similar to those made with individual
stock options. Many professional traders employ index spreads as a
hedge strategy. We favor debit positions on the SPX for momentum
and longer-term plays and OTM credit spreads on the OEX when the
risk/reward is favorable. Low ROI disparity spreads will be listed
(when available) for the conservative index trader.
*******************************************************************
OEX - S&P 100 Index  $726.88     OTM Credit-Spreads

The Standard & Poor's 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index
of 100 stocks from a broad range of industries. The component
stocks are weighted according to the total market value of their
outstanding shares. The impact of a component's price change is
proportional to the issue's total market value, which is the share
price times the number of shares outstanding. 

OBSERVATIONS:

For OTM credit spread trades, we like to use the actively-traded
S&P 100 Index options because they contain much more premium than
options on individual stocks and provide an underlying instrument
less prone to huge, gapping moves. Remember however, that you can
always be exercised early so monitor your positions daily.

TECHNICALS:

While the overall market seems likely to remain on the upside of
a wide trading range over the next few weeks, the outlook for the
long term is still somewhat unfavorable. The market continues to
move ahead and though it is nearing an "overbought" condition, no
serious selling pressures are evident but caution is warranted as
a lot of profit is on the table. The last hour indicator continues
to be very bullish (the NYSE Tick ended +1054) and it was a near
term plus that the S&P500 closed above 1405. Current short term
technicals remain bullish as we move into the second week of
earnings. Review the 'Market Sentiment' section for more specific
technical information on the S&P 100 Index.
 
Conservative...

PLAY (bearish/low ROI):
BUY  CALL AUG-765 OEZ-HM OI=0    A=$2.93
SELL CALL AUG-760 OEZ-HL OI=5798 B=$3.50
NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.56 ROI=12%

PLAY (bullish/low ROI):
BUY  PUT AUG-690 OEY-TR OI=1499 A=$5.37
SELL PUT AUG-695 OEY-TS OI=1555 B=$5.87
NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.50 ROI=11%

Aggressive...

PLAY (Bearish):
BUY  CALL AUG-745 OEZ-HI OI=332  A=$8.25
SELL CALL AUG-740 OEZ-HH OI=5887 B=$10.00
NET CREDIT TARGET=$1.75 ROI=53%

PLAY (Bullish):
BUY  PUT AUG-700 OEY-TT OI=5004 A=$7.00
SELL PUT AUG-705 OEY-TA OI=1414 B=$7.75
NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.75 ROI=18%

CHART= http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^oex&d=b
*****************************************************************
SPX - S&P 500 Index  $1409.62     Debit Spreads

Composed of 500 stocks selected by the analysts at Standard &
Poor's, this index represents the best stocks, not necessarily
the largest, stocks taken from all the exchanges and the NASDAQ.
(The NASDAQ is not technically an exchange because it doesn't have
a central clearing floor like the NYSE and the AMEX.) This is the
best index to follow larger capitalizition stocks.

In-The-Money Momentum (or Hedge) Spreads

PLAY (bearish/conservative):
BUY  PUT AUG-1475 SXZ-TO OI=33  A=$67.50
SELL PUT AUG-1450 SXZ-TP OI=951 B=$47.50
NET DEBIT TARGET=$20.00 ROI(max)=25% B/E=$1455.00

PLAY (bullish/conservative):
BUY  CALL AUG-1350 SXY-HJ OI=8758 A=$75.87
SELL CALL AUG-1370 SXY-HN OI=0    B=$59.25
NET DEBIT TARGET=$16.62 ROI(max)=20% B/E=$1366.62

CHART= http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^SPX&d=1y




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