Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 11/08/1999

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The Option Investor Newsletter         Monday  11-8-99
Copyright 1998, All rights reserved.	
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com

Also provided as a service to The Online Investor Advantage

Published three times weekly, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday evenings
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        11-08-99           High     Low     Volume Advance Decline
DOW    10718.85 + 14.37 10776.05 10650.35   802,412k 1,350   1,697
Nasdaq  3143.94 + 41.68  3148.20  3068.86 1,296,785k 2,101   1,953
S&P-100  724.63 +  5.83   726.61   709.83    Totals  3,451   3,650
S&P-500 1377.01 +  6.78  1380.78  1363.73            48.6%   51.4%
$RUT     445.07 +  2.66   445.13   441.34
$TRAN   3031.21 + 27.22  3034.01  2994.75
VIX       22.23 -   .90    23.13    21.60
Put/Call Ratio      .52

We want to pump (clap). . .you up!

Like a scene from "Hans and Franz" on Saturday Night Live years 
ago, Investors are pumping the NASDAQ to another new record high.  
You can almost hear investors yelling in their best Arnold 
Schwarzenegger accent, "Come on Girly-man with your muscles so 
puny. . .let's see you do it again!"  Of course, following six 
days of record closes, day seven should have exhausted NASDAQ 
into some profit taking, especially in light of Judge Jackson's 
finding of fact that Microsoft is a (mean-spirited, evil, 
ruthless, competition-smothering, predatory killer) monopolist.  
Traders were staring at MSFT's incoming comet prior to today's 
open that could have cratered the tech sector if not the market.  
Alas, the comet disintegrated in the atmosphere and the market 
got off one more repetition of an ever-increasing weight, as 
analysts and traders came to MSFT's and the market's defense.  
How long can it go on?  We don't know for sure.  However we can 
say the odds of this trend continuing diminish geometrically with 
each new record trading day.  On only two occasions this year 
have we actually seen seven straight days of new records.  Those 
periods were June 28 through July 6, and October 10 through 
October 18.  In fact, according to discount broker, Charles 
Schwab and Company, the market hasn't given us eight consecutive 
highs in 1998 or 1999.  The likelihood of a eighth day is really 
slim.  That's not to say the market can't advance any further, 
but that it needs a day off.

As it turned out, Microsoft news was no big deal in today's 
trading of tech issues.  While MSFT traded as low as $80 in 
Europe last night, $84.38 was the low at the open in the U.S 
market and remained the buzz all day in the pits and chat rooms.  
By noon, MSFT had found support at $87.50 and moved up to $90.75 
in the afternoon, before falling back into the close at $89.94.  
Total loss on the day - $1.63.  While this may seem insignificant 
in the big picture, this recovery came on 122 mln shares of 
volume - about 9% of the NASDAQ volume.  That's 4.6 times its ADV 
with 3.8 bln shares in float and 5.16 bln outstanding.  To frame 
this up, investors bid up MSFT's value by $30 BILLION from its 
low of the day!  That's a huge market positive in our book.  

Also benefiting from the supposed bad news were Microsoft rivals.  
Take a look at their score cards today: Red Hat software, +$18.06 
at $104; Sun Micro, +$2.31 (+$6 at one point) at $112; Apple, 
+$8.06 at $96.38.  For SUNW, and AAPL, theses are new records.  
You expect bad news from MSFT to rub off positively on the rivals 
in a zero sum gain where MSFT loses and the others steal its 
value.  Not so.  Looks like everybody benefits from the ruling as 
MSFT's loss is the others gain, leading to MSFT's recovery.

How was the NASDAQ overall?  How 'bout another new record?  It 
closed at 3143, up over 41 points.  Total volume for the tenth 
day in a row was over 1 bln shares, with over 1.3 bln shares 
changing hands today.  Considering MSFT, INTC, CSCO, DELL, and 
WCOM make up 40% of the NASDAQ 100, and each of these suffered a 
loss (except CSCO - +$1.88, probably in anticipation of earnings 
tomorrow), today's gain of 41 point happened in the other 60% of 
the index.  Can you say "Internet"?  Sure, we knew you could.  
Take a look at AMZN (an unfortunate entrant as a put play over 
the weekend - hopefully, you confirmed that the trade was not in 
your direction and avoided the play).  On news that they would 
announce a new alliance in a press conference to be held 
tomorrow, it shot up $13.06.  YHOO was up $13.75; AOL +$4.25; 
INKT +$5.31; CNET +$4.31; NSOL +$6.12; EBAY +$3.75; PCLN +$9.12.  
Look at customer relationship management companies too: KANA 
+$62.44 to $150.50 (!!); EPNY +$39.56 to $120; ALLR +$17 to 
$119.25; BBSW +$8.06 to $66; EGAN +$14 to $32.  These are not 
misprints.  B2B software also performed to similar levels.  All 
told advancers squeaked past decliners 2101 to 1953.  New highs 
remained strong against new lows by 211 to 85.  

Need more?  Even the Russell 2000 index closed up today 
indicating today's move was market wide.

Conversely, comprised of a greater percentage of financials than 
other indexes, the DJIA exhibited weakness from the start, moving 
down about 54 points this morning at 10,650.  Then within the 
first hour and a half staged a rally to its high of the day 
10,776, a 126-point recovery, but fell back into the close.  
Other than that, action was lackluster, as the DJIA closed up 
just 14 points at 10,718.  1697 decliners beat 1350 advancers, 
while 91 new lows bested 68 new highs.  Volume?  A measly 
(comparatively speaking) 806 mln shares.  Careful, we're nearing 
that 10,800 resistance level again.  With the PPI out Wednesday 
morning, it's unlikely we'll see any volume helping the market to 
break down that door tomorrow.  Not helping matters here is that 
pesky bond rate that has fallen quite a ways in a hurry.  As it 
nears 6% again, investors are starting to notice the previous big 
move down and wonder if there shouldn't be some backing and 
filling, or at least caution, in front of the PPI.  We don't 
expect any big moves until the PPI has been fed to bond traders 
like a sardine to a seal.  Then it will be time to jump through 
the market hoop for the next feeding on November 16, the 
occurrence of the FOMC meeting.

There are other events taking place this week that will affect 
our trading.  First Wal-Mart will report earnings tomorrow.  If 
figures are low, that may lead investors to believe the economy 
is slowing on the consumer end, which would be good for the 
inflation outlook.  On the other hand, great earnings would 
likely benefit just WMT and perhaps the retail sector.  No matter 
what, WMT earnings aren't likely to rock the market.  However, 
CSCO (est = $0.23) reports tomorrow after the bell, then DELL 
(est = $0.18) on Thursday.  These two have the potential to rock 
the tech world, and thus the rest of the market.  Also, the 
American Electronics Assn. Began its conference in San Diego 
today, which will last through Thursday, and is typically good 
for tech stocks.  Of course, don't forget about the PPI on 

Just a brief note here to let you know of two new IPOs this week.  
Normally, we wouldn't mention them, but because of their size, 
they could have an enormous effect on liquidity.  We refer here 
to UPS which will likely price 109 mln shares between $47-$49, 
sucking up $5.2 bln of investor cash if all goes well, and 
Charter Communications (about 150 mln at $17-$19 shares totaling 
$3.2 bln), a nationwide cable bandwidth service provider brought 
to you by Paul Allen of Microsoft fame.  That's a total of $8.4 
bln in liquidity these 2 issues could soak up.  It could put a 
real damper on rising stock prices, at least temporarily.

So here's the lineup:  for the NASDAQ, more records are 
statistically unlikely.  However, given the strength shown by 
huge volume, an intraday selloff (or multi-day correction) is 
buyable AFTER you see the bounce, so long as sentiment remains 
positive.  While the DJIA hasn't set any records lately, it too 
has some resistance at 10,800, which if it's going to happen, 
won't likely be broken until after the PPI figures are known and 
the bond traders get some backing and filling.  The wild card for 
both markets is the PPI, which will affect interest rates, which 
affect profits, which affect stock prices.  Remember Jim's entry 
strategies as the week unfolds.  Target shooting is the key to a 
good entry and a profitable trade.  Buying everything in site 
after 7 straight new highs (so you won't miss out) is NOT a good 
approach and assures loss of capital.  Plan your trades, trade 
your plan, wait for the market to come to you, then sell too 

Buzz Lynn
Research Analyst


Enough Already, It's Not a Monopoly

By S.P. Brown

With all due respect to U.S. District Judge Thomas Penfield 
Jackson, Microsoft is not a monopoly.  Take it from Webster's 
dictionary, a monopoly constitutes "exclusive ownership 
through legal privilege, command of supply, or concerted 
action."  That definition does not apply to Microsoft.

Judge Jackson obviously doesn't agree.  In a 207-page ruling 
against the software giant, the good judge attempted to make a 
case that Microsoft was wielding its so-called monopoly powers 
in ways that weren't in the "public good."  Oddly, though, the 
ruling does not say whether Microsoft broke the law, nor does 
it say what the company's punishment will be.  Here are a few 
choice excerpts from Judge Jackson's head-scratching anti-
Microsoft diatribe, along with a rebuttal to each.

"Microsoft enjoys monopoly power in the relevant market, that 
is, Intel-compatible PC operating systems." 

Wrong.  Yes, it's true that Microsoft's Windows operating 
system powers roughly 90 percent of the world's 200 million-
plus desktop computers.  But that doesn't mean consumers don't 
have a choice.  In addition to Windows, there's Linux, OS/2, 
Unix, and then there is the Apple operating system for those 
folks who wish to jettison the PC environment completely.

"It is Microsoft's corporate practice to pressure other firms 
to halt software development that either shows the potential 
to weaken the applications barrier to entry or competes 
directly with Microsoft's most cherished software products." 

Wrong.  Here's what happens in the real world:  Microsoft 
wants Apple to abandon development of its multimedia playback 
software.  Apple refuses.  Microsoft pressures IBM to stop 
bundling its SmartSuite program with its PCs.  IBM refuses.  
Microsoft binds small fry like Concentric and EarthLink to 
stifling quotas, limiting them from shipping Navigator.  
Concentric and EarthLink violate the restrictions.  What does 
Microsoft do about all this corporate insolence?  Nothing.  

"The AOL coup [in which AOL agreed to use Internet Explorer as 
its primary browser], which Microsoft accomplished only at 
tremendous expense to itself and considerable deprivation of 
consumers' freedom of choice, thus contributed to 
extinguishing the threat that Navigator posed to the 
applications barrier to entry."

Wrong.  The "deprivation of consumers' freedom of choice" 
statement is ridiculous.  Before Microsoft supplied their 
Internet Explorer for free, consumers had to pay for a 
browser.  Now consumers are in the enviable position of 
choosing between two fine browsers for free.  

"Microsoft has demonstrated that it will use its prodigious 
market power and immense profits to harm any firm that insists 
on pursuing initiatives that could intensify competition 
against one of Microsoft's core products.  Microsoft's past 
success in hurting such companies and in stifling innovation 
deters investment in technologies and businesses that exhibit 
the potential to threaten Microsoft.  The ultimate result is 
that some innovations that would truly benefit consumers never 
occur for the sole reason that they do not coincide with 
Microsoft's self-interest." 

Wrong. Are you saying a company doesn't have the right to 
defend its market, Judge Jackson?  Besides, if someone has a 
technology that will truly benefit consumers, there is nothing 
Microsoft, or anyone for that matter, can do to ultimately 
impede its deployment.  As a corporation, Microsoft has no 
power to force anyone to do anything. 

"In sum, Microsoft successfully secured for Internet Explorer
and foreclosed to Navigator -- one of the two distribution 
channels that leads most efficiently to the usage of browsing 
software.  Even to the extent that Navigator retains some 
access to the OEM channel, Microsoft has relegated it to 
markedly less efficient forms of distribution than the form 
vouchsafed for Internet Explorer, namely, prominent placement 
on the Windows desktop."

Wrong, or rather, so what?  The property rights to Windows and 
Explorer belong solely to Microsoft and not to potential 
buyers.  Thus, there is no right to force Microsoft to create, 
or sell, a product the company does not believe to be in its 
best interest.  If Microsoft wants to dictate how Explorer is 
used, so be it.  It's their property.  Consumers can take it 
or leave it.

So if Microsoft isn't really a monopoly, why the lawsuit?  
Basically it boils down to jealous competitors, and 
bureaucrats needing to justify their jobs, which is 
unfortunate.  One of the most attractive aspects of the 
software industry is that it remained entrepreneurial, even as 
it grew to a multibillion-dollar industry.  

But now, some software businessmen have fallen prey to the 
temptation of having Washington do their dirty work.  It seems 
they can no longer tolerate the fact that Microsoft has a CEO 
worth close to $100 billion and that the company operates with 
85 percent gross and 40 percent net margins. 

One particular practice that Microsoft's competitors have 
taken exception to, and the Justice Department has seized 
upon, is the infamous demand by Microsoft for restrictive 
covenants in exchange for its cooperation with other software 
companies.  Microsoft once demanded another company's program 
set Internet Explorer as the default browser.  Janet Reno and 
her gang deemed that tactic unfair. 

But unfair only for Microsoft, whose competitors routinely use 
this same tactic without fear of legal retribution.  Because 
it is the market leader, declares James Barksdale of Netscape, 
Microsoft should be required to "play by a different set of 
rules."  What about the notion of equal protection under the 
law, Jim?

The government's lawsuit against Microsoft puts the company in 
a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position. 
Microsoft's legal position would be strengthened if it would 
just wilt in the face of competition.  Yet if Microsoft 
continues to adhere to the virtues that made it successful - 
continually upgrading its products to meet competitors' 
challenges and consumer demands -- it faces a greater risk of 
prosecution.  For a market leader to engage in aggressive 
competition is, in the George Orwell language of antitrust, 
"anticompetitive." What's Microsoft supposed to do, 
demonstrate to the powers-that-be that it is not trying to 
compete, that it isn't trying to succeed?

Unfortunately, that is the inane conclusion supported by 100 
years of antitrust lawsuits in the U.S.  The Justice 
Department bullied IBM for years with antitrust charges, only 
giving up when that company was surpassed by Microsoft and 
Intel -- who quickly became the new antitrust targets.  If the 
IBM case is any indication, the Justice Department wouldn't be 
satisfied until Microsoft stagnates and gets its clock cleaned 
by the competition, just as IBM did. 

You'd think that after two centuries of capitalism someone in 
the Justice Department would have learned the basic economic 
tenet that all companies in competitive industries earn zero 
economic profits in the long-run.  Zero economic profits means 
that there are no additional profits to be made after 
compensating investors for risk and the time value of money.  
Right now it's safe to assume that Microsoft is still earning 
positive economic profits.  But one day those juicy profit 
margins will begin to contract and Microsoft will find itself 
in the same humble position as other so-called monopolies - 
IBM, Eastman Kodak, and Xerox -- earning zero economic 

Finally, and ironically, the only real monopolies are those 
sanctioned by governments, the very entities who supposedly 
despise monopolies.  Public schools and utilities are two 
obvious industries granted monopoly power by the government.  
Maybe if things get a little slow at the Justice Department, 
they can start filing antitrust suites against state, local, 
and federal governments.  As ridiculous as that sounds, don't 
count it out.


United Parcel Service Trucks New Offering to Wall Street

By Cindy Christ

United Parcel Service is expected to deliver the largest Initial 
Public Offering ever to Wall Street this week.

In a move conveying strong interest, late Friday UPS raised the 
offering price to $47 to $49 from $36 to $42. The 92-year-old-
company hopes to haul in about $5.6 billion from the sale of 
109.4 million shares, or about 10 percent of the company, when 
shares start trading Wednesday.

The remaining 90 percent of total common stock and about 99 
percent of the voting power will be controlled by the company 
itself -- including employees and retirees who own two-thirds of 
outstanding shares -- through a different class of stock. 

UPS's new offering drives Conoco (COCa), which raised almost $4 
billion last year, from the top IPO slot.

IPO watchers say UPS will lead the pack of new issues slated to 
debut this week. With 26 offerings on deck to raise an estimated 
$8 billion, the next five days could prove the busiest of the year 
for new issues, according to Thomson Financial Securities Data.

UPS has said it will use funds raised to make acquisitions in 
logistics, distribution and e-commerce and to repurchase some 
existing Class A shares.

Analysts say investors have eagerly awaited the arrival of shares 
in the world's largest package delivery company since news of the 
offering was announced in July. Given the company's long operating 
history, profitability and leading position in e-commerce, analyst 
expect institutional investors to lead the charge in buying.

Last year, UPS earned a $1.7 billion profit from sales of $24.8 
billion. Moreover, it's the only transportation company with an 
AAA credit rating from both Standard & Poor's and Moody's. The 
company, which delivers more than 12 million packages to 1.6 
million customers worldwide each business day, delivers 55 percent 
of goods purchased over the Internet, according to Zona Research.

"We are the industry leader in the delivery of goods purchased 
over the Internet... We seek to position ourselves as an 
indispensable branded component of e-commerce," the company says.

The company also says it's well prepared to meet the exponential 
growth in demand that future online sales will generate. According 
to market research firm Forrester Research, online sales to 
consumers will rise to $108 billion in 2003 from just 7.8 billion 
last year.

With all the ingredients portending a successful IPO wrapped in 
the deal, analysts say UPS is bound to fly high. Two days before 
shares begin trading, demand has driven the offering price up more 
than 20 percent.

The deal also is backed by a group of prestigious investment 
bankers led by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Co-managers are Goldman 
Sachs and Merrill Lynch. According to Tom Taulli, analyst at Edgar 
Online and author of Investing in IPOs, one trait shared by all 
successful IPOs is high-quality underwriting.

But despite the positive buzz and power-broker backing, detractors 
say that investors who jump in on the first day will pay too much 
for UPS.

If shares begin trading around $60 a share as analysts predict, 
the company would be priced at twice the multiple garnered by 
chief competitor FedEx (FDX). Supporters say the company's 
dominant Internet position warrants a higher multiple. What's more, 
at 14.6 percent, UPS's operating margin is more than double FDX's, 
they say.

Like its rival, UPS earns most of its revenues from business 
deliveries. And though UPS now delivers to more homes than FDX, 
RPS, an FDX subsidiary, is set to introduce a new, nationwide 
home-delivery service using independent contractors next year. 

Analysts say UPS also faces increasing competition from upstarts 
like Webvan (WBVN) and Streamline (SLNE), whose next-generation 
warehouses and delivery systems are customized to meet the needs 
of e-commerce.

"Established giants like United Parcel Service and FedEx won't 
necessarily dominate this market," writes Red Herring Magazine's 
Justin Hibbard. "Although traditional shipping companies have 
been handling the delivery of most online purchases, residential 
delivery isn't their forte. A handful of startups are seizing the 
opportunity to address the unique requirements of delivering 
online purchases to homes."

UPS also competes with many other companies on a local, regional, 
national and international basis, including government-subsidized 
postal services here and abroad.

Besides competition, other risks UPS investors face include 
slowing growth in the domestic market, rising oil prices, strikes 
and work stoppages or slowdowns, non-Y2K compliance, and economic 
turmoil in other countries, where UPS earns about 13 percent of 

In addition, the company warns that foundations and trusts created 
by UPS founders and their descendants could take advantage of the 
new public market by selling large blocks of shares after the 
lockout period ends.

What's more, an unfavorable ruling handed down in August has left 
the company with an estimated $2.353 billion liability for back 

With an end-to-end delivery system that carries an estimated 6 
percent of the U.S. gross domestic product and an early lead in 
the booming e-commerce industry, UPS just might be one of a few 
conservatively priced Internet plays. But before jumping on the 
truck, be sure to read the offering's prospectus, which delivers 
all the goods on this well-respected industry leader.


BVSN - Broadvision $83.50 (+9.88) 

Broadvision's software helps companies become e-commerce 
powerhouses. Their depth in One to One Internet software provides 
the tools for all facets of the online transaction, including 
ordering, payment, fulfillment, customer service and billing. It 
also allows users to collect, track and manage customer visits, 
then create customer profiles accordingly. Customers include 
Oracle and Cyberian Outpost. Insiders own 46% of the company. 

On Tuesday, BVSN launched a secondary offering in Europe by 
offering 2.7 mln shares at $72. On Monday, BVSN traded in the 
U.S. at $80. Why pay $80 when you can buy them for $72? Right, 
neither did anyone else. BVSN was pounded back to around $74 to 
close at its low that day. The good news is that once investors 
shook it off, the issue continued climbing the rest of the week 
on strong volume, culminating in a new high on Friday. 
Technically, the chart couldn't look better, and volume at more 
than twice the ADV couldn't be stronger either. But that's the 
rear view mirror look. Looking forward, if volume keeps up we 
should get more of the same - nice gains. However, since the 
NASDAQ has been up 6 days in a row, "immediately" is not the time 
to take a position. We need to wait for a pullback and let the 
market digest some of its gains before it continues to move up 
again. Decent support appears at $76 on intraday dips, though 
Friday, the dips only got us a buying opportunity at $80. Check 
the chart for yourself to see where you fit on the risk scale. 
Given the big market rise, our leaning is to wait for the lower 
digits when the market decides to take its profits. Otherwise, so 
long as volume remains heavy, a breakout over $85.25 
(resistance=$84.88) is buyable too, but we still prefer the dips 
for a better entry. 

Earnings were on October 20, and they surprised 23% to the 
upside. News? Other than 2.7 mln shares in a European secondary 
offering, from CBSMarketWatch on Monday, "The partnership between 
New Era and BroadVision will allow businesses to integrate 
existing systems with Internet applications to perform business- 
to-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce, according to a 
statement from the companies." 

***November strikes expire in 2 weeks*** 

BUY CALL NOV-80*BDV-KP OI= 884 at $13.00 SL=10.50 
BUY CALL NOV-85 BDV-KQ OI= 388 at $ 9.38 SL= 7.00 
BUY CALL NOW-90 BDV-KR OI= 303 at $ 3.63 SL= 2.00, risky!!
BUY CALL DEC-80 BDV-LP OI= 404 at $17.25 SL=13.50 
BUY CALL DEC-85 BDV-LQ OI= 178 at $14.38 SL=11.25
BUY CALL DEC-90 BDV-LR OI= 166 at $11.88 SL= 9.25

Picked on Nov 7th at    $83.50    P/E = 556 
Change since picked      +8.50    52-week high=$92.50 
Analysts Ratings    4-19-1-0-0    52-week low =$ 4.81 
Last earnings  09/99 est= 0.13    actual= 0.16 
Next earnings  01-27 est= 0.16    versus= 0.08 
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 mln 
Chart = http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=BVSN&d=3m


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