Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 10/31/2000

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The Option Investor Newsletter                  Tuesday 10-31-2000
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        10-31-2000        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10971.10 +135.30 10995.40 10812.30 1.35 bln   2053/886
NASDAQ   3369.63 +178.23  3379.08  3226.62 2.15 bln   2775/1254
S&P 100   750.93 + 18.16   752.43   733.97   totals   4828/2140
S&P 500  1429.40 + 30.74  1432.22  1401.18           69.3%/30.7%
RUS 2000  497.68 + 14.96   497.68   482.72
DJ TRANS 2744.62 + 58.01  2747.86  2671.16
VIX        25.99 -  1.80    27.88    25.62
Put/Call Ratio      0.64

October is over, and none too soon!

What a relief and what a way to exit the month known as the bear
killer. If the bear is dead we can't prove it by the month on the
Nasdaq. With a loss for the month of -345 points the Nasdaq has
been beaten senseless. The Dow however, thanks to the last three
days, gained over +310 points from the 10659 close on Sept 28th.
The Dow clawed back from negative territory this morning to post
a triple triple, the third day in a row with a triple digit gain.
No trick or treat there! Or maybe the Dow and Nasdaq up strong on
the same day is a trick in itself?

The Dow was tanked after the open by steep losses in Proctor&Gamble
but with investors eager to jump in front of the anticipated Fall
rally the dip was only temporary. With only a brief pause on the
25th and 26th the Dow has gained over +1300 points since the lows
on October 18th. This is about as vertical as you can get with an
average of over +130 points per day for the ten day period. Can
you say over bought? Maybe so but then over bought from a seriously
over sold condition. Still nothing goes up in a straight line so
we could see a cooling of this frantic climb at any time.

The -$7 morning drop by PG came on the heels of an earnings report
that met analysts estimates but showed a -2% drop in revenue. The
weak Euro impact to PG took -35 points off the Dow with the report.
The drop by PG in the Dow was more than made up for with the almost
+6.00 gain in CSCO just one day after being downgraded by Lehman.
Today Merrill Lynch took revenge on Lehman for downgrading their
favorite stock by downgrading Lehman. Trick or treat LEH! Maybe
CSCO was Merrill's pick to replace Honeywell in the Dow?

Rambus got a short circuit today with conflicting stories of a
move by Intel away from Rambus technology. Electronic Buyers News
said it had obtained a document that showed Intel planned to
phase out future support for Rambus products. An Intel spokesman
however said there would be no change in the Intel stance. RMBS
dropped -11 in early trading but recovered to only -8 as investor
denial caused a bounce in the shares.

With the markets all coming into alignment the economic news is
still mixed. The consumer confidence today showed a drop well below
the estimate of 140 with only a 135.2 reading. Maybe the economy
is really slowing and maybe not. Maybe it is just consumers reacting
to the falling stock market and margin calls are making it tougher
to remain positive. The other economic report showed the NAPM
index at 49.6 the lowest reading in 21 months and the sharpest
drop since May 1980 after posting a 62.4 in August. This evidence
of a serious contraction may actually hasten the Fed into a rate
cut sooner than expected to avoid a crash instead of a soft landing.

With analysts claiming this may be a November to remember should
we start making new years eve party plans now?  The Nasdaq rebound
today after getting hammered on Monday looks to be a confirmation
signal with the second higher low since the October 18th bottom.
The rally came on high volume with advances beating declines by
a greater than 2:1 margin. The new lows on the S&P have finally
turned the corner and are dropping while the new highs are rapidly
accelerating. This appears to be a broad market move with the S&P,
Dow, Nasdaq all participating and the Russell-2000 closing at a
three week high as well. Even the Dow Transports are soaring with
a +300 point gain in just the last four days. Dow theory followers
should be ecstatic. Did I mention that the volume of 1.35 billion
on the NYSE was the seventh heaviest ever?

The last of the tax sellers appeared around 2:15 PM but buyers
cheered the pull back and bought their cast offs with enthusiasm.
Hopefully the tax selling was the real reason behind the last
two weeks volatility and we will only move up from here. This
remains to be seen but appears to be the consensus of opinion.
There is some concern that the bounce today was simply the result
of funds buying a few thousand shares of the leaders in order
to put the final window dressing on the month end reports. This
happens constantly and paints the tape with the illusion of buying.
IF the tax selling by mutual funds was the real reason for the
October drop then the funds are now flush with new cash and the
buying season will begin tomorrow. The tens or even hundreds
of billions in cash on the sidelines must now be put to work
between now and December 31st. The influx of new cash to these
same funds from retirement plans and the year end IRA contributions
could also fund the potential Fall rally. Historically the November
and December months are very strong and with the Fed on hold
until well after the election the only thing on investors minds
should be which stock to buy if the rest of the week is as good
as today. With millions of investors breathing a sigh of relief
after the Dow's performance over the last several days and now
the Nasdaq confirmation you can bet there will be a lot of
charting done tonight after the trick or treaters go to bed.
Parents on a sugar high from consuming the rejects will be
deciding what to add to their decimated portfolios and planning
that summer cruise on the proceeds. We are a nation of optimists
and any daylight at the end of October is cause for celebration.

Now that you are all pumped from the anticipation of the
funeral for the bears let me give you a few words of caution.
Thursday we have the Productivity report for the third quarter
and Friday we get the always interesting Non-farm payroll report
coupled with Factory Orders for September. Just three of the
key indicators the Fed watches closely. Add that to the +1300
points the Dow has risen since October 18th and you could see
a little profit taking between now and Friday. What we do not
know is if the new buyers can overpower the sellers and keep
the rally alive. This concern is evident by the put/call ratio
which is now at .64 which indicates slightly more put buying
than normal. The COT report today showed that small traders
are now at extreme levels of bullishness with a huge number
of calls while the institutional traders are still short at
ten year extremes. This is setting up for an interesting
tug of war beginning next week. If the big guys are forced
to cover these positions in a raging market the explosion
could be huge. Get out the party hats, start ordering that
champagne and get ready to party!

Good luck and sell too soon.

Jim Brown

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Triple Digit Gains In Tandem
By Matt Russ

The two major market indices got their acts together and rallied
impressively.  Really it was the NASDAQ that broke its two day
downtrend with a strong 5.5% rally, picking up on the INDU's
four days of gains.  With the two moving up in tandem, can we
safely say the worst is over?  Austin told me to say yes.  He is
currently on his way back home after the great Seminar weekend
we had.

Looking at the NASDAQ chart, there was little sign of weakness
as the tech trended steadily throughout the day.  Today's 2.1 bln
share day of 178 points is very encouraging as it represents a
confirmation of Thursday's massive rally that I mentioned in
Sunday's wrap.  To strengthen this rally even further, the
volume handily beat yesterday's 1.7 bln shares on the 86 point
pullback.  Just another positive sign in the bottoming process.

The VIX.X sunk the last two days as investors' fears subsided
a bit, even during yesterday's profit taking.  In fact, the
majority of decline in the VIX.X came yesterday.  Go figure!
The fear gauge closed today at 25.99.  Are we out of the woods
yet?  If we continue to see this pattern of higher lows for the
NASDAQ, I would have to say yes.  So far so good for this
bottoming process.  Yesterday was another higher low at 3149,
and today the NASDAQ didn't even come close to that level.  We
will keep our fingers crossed, hoping that if profit takers come
out tomorrow on the first day of November, the buyers won't be
far off to defend today's gains.  At least we can say good bye
to the notorious month of October.  Happy Halloween!


Tuesday 10/31 close: 25.99

30-yr Bonds
Tuesday 10/31 close: 5.78%

Support/Resistance Indicator
The Index Support/Resistance(S/R)Ratio is a formula used to
gauge possible support or resistance based on open-interest
disparity. Ratio listed is percentage of calls to puts or
puts to calls respectively.

Support is factored from dividing puts by calls at strike
levels beneath index closing price. Resistance is factored
from dividing calls by puts at strike levels above current
closing price.

  (Open Interest)        Calls         Puts        Ratio
S&P 100 Index (OEX)
790 - 775                8,742          259        33.75***
770 - 755                7,674        2,802         2.74

OEX close: 750.93

745 - 730               16,947        7,313          .43
725 - 710                3,687        9,769         2.65

Maximum calls: 740/6,068
Maximum puts : 700/4,625

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  730
 20 DMA  732
 50 DMA  771
200 DMA  778

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
 90 - 88                25,732        13,699         1.88
 87 - 85                27,880        25,547         1.09
 84 - 82                36,870        30,057         1.23

QQQ(NDX)close: 81.812

 80 - 78                22,524        44,336         1.97
 77 - 75                13,050        32,293         2.47
 74 - 72                 1,749        44,633        25.52***

Maximum calls: 80/17,821
Maximum puts : 73/23,257

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 81
 20 DMA 81
 50 DMA 88
200 DMA 94

S&P 500 (SPX)
1500                    10,941         3,991         2.74
1475                    17,460         4,782         3.65
1450                    10,978         8,423         1.30

SPX close: 1428.94

1400                    25,834        26,987         1.04
1375                    13,456        17,930         1.33
1350                     8,421        24,651         2.93

Maximum calls: 1400/25,834
Maximum puts : 1400/26,987

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1385
 20 DMA 1385
 50 DMA 1440
200 DMA 1441


CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday 10/27
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the
Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading
public with commercials being financial institutions.
Commercials are historically on the correct side of future
trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence
between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the
commercial trader’s direction.

                    Small Specs           Commercials
DJIA futures
Open Interest
Net Value              +89                   -483
Total Open
Interest %        (1.07% net-long)      (2.34% net-short)

Open Interest
Net Value              -262                   +85
Total Open
Interest %        (1.48 net-short)       (.21% net-long)

S&P 500
Open Interest
Net Value             +57,031               -66,429
Total Open
Interest %        (31.05% net-long)      (10.72% net-short)

What COT Data Tells Us: Commercial positions in S&P 500 have held
their ten-year extreme short levels while small specs increased
their net-long positions as compiled Tuesday 10/24 by the CFTC.

Next Fridays data should give a clearer picture to Commercials
either covering some profitable shorts or holding fast into next

Fed's finished
Benign government reports
Oversold markets
Disparity in overhead call/put ratios
VIX above 30
Certain market leaders (MSFT,JDSU) showing strength

Oil Prices
COT reports
Recent pre-warnings, downgrades
Broad market's break of critical M/A support
Market leaders breakdown
Daily technical chart indicators


As of Market Close - Tuesday, 10/31/2000

                                  Key Benchmarks
Broad Market           Last     Support/Resistance   Alert

DOW   Industrials      10,971      10,250  11,100     **
SPX   S&P 500           1,429       1,335   1,445     **
COMPX NASD Composite    3,369       3,000   3,550
OEX   S&P 100             750         700     775     **
RUT   Russell 2000        497         455     500
NDX   NASD 100          3,282       2,950   3,550
MSH   High Tech           928         835     975

BTK   Biotech             734         680     780
XCI   Hardware          1,268       1,130   1,310
GSO.X Software            412         360     440
SOX   Semiconductor       741         600     805
NWX   Networking        1,039         925   1,180
INX   Internet            347         275     370

BIX   Banking             603         545     630     **
XBD   Brokerage           627         585     655     **
IUX   Insurance           814         760     830     **

RLX   Retail              797         730     820     **
DRG   Drug                421         395     440
HCX   Healthcare          880         840     900
XAL   Airline             150         130     160     **
OIX   Oil & Gas           304         296     320

Eight alerts were triggered at resistance in the past two
sessions.  Raising support (DOW, SPX, BTK, BIX, XBD, IUX, RLX,
XAL).  Raising resistance (DOW, SPX, OEX, BIX, XBD, IUX, RLX,
XAL).  We are starting to see a lot of strength building in
several sectors, so traders should snug up those stops and don't
let profits slip away!


What A Great Weekend!
By Lee Lowell

I'm writing this week's article as I'm flying back from the Denver
expo.  Right now I'm somewhere over the Pacific Ocean on my way
back to Hawaii.  Before I actually made my decision to attend the
seminar, I was a little hesitant on whether I should go or not.  I
was given an invitation about 5 weeks before the event and I
wasn't really sure if that was enough time for me to put together
a quality presentation.  Let me just tell you, even though I had
concerns, attending the expo was probably the best decision I've
made in a long time.  I don't care how much you think you might
know about stock and option trading, there's always someone else
out there who knows more than you and there's always something you
can learn at any point in your life.  And I'm glad I went because
I learned a bunch.

Anyways, I'd just like to say that I was honored to be a part of
such a wonderful event.  The list was long on quality speakers
and the food was great too!  I enjoyed talking to many of the
attendees and it was great to finally put a face to the names of
all my OIN cohorts.  As some of us writers are freelance, we all
don't get to work together in the Denver office.  I got a real
kick out of listening to Chris V's horror trading stories, and I
feel the rest of the gang are all top notch.  It was great to
meet Jim, Buzz, Vince, Mark, Molly, and Austin (and Wendy too!)
So thanks again everyone for letting me share with you what I
know about options trading.

Just before I was about to give my presentation at the expo, the
Head Guy - Jim Brown, said that my topic of discussion is a boring
subject, so there may be some sleepy faces out there.  The nerve!
What's boring to some may be fascinating to others.  At least
that's what I was told afterwards by a few wonderful attendees.
Nevertheless, when I was finished giving my presentation, I came
to the conclusion that many of the students don't do much in the
way of volatility analysis before they actually put on a trade.
But that's okay, because that's why they came to the seminar in
the first place.  For some of you who didn't attend the expo, my
topic of discussion was volatility and how to use it in your
trading.  I realize that my topic was not on the high priority
list for many of the students.  The feeling that I get now is that
most of the readers want to know what trade to make, when to make
it, and when to get out.  That's what the subscription is for.
The picks are well researched and the reader knows they are
quality plays recommended by qualified professionals.
Nevertheless, through all my years of trading, I've learned that
there can only truly be one person who should be the ultimate
decision maker and who should hold sole responsibility for their
trades.  And that one person is YOU! (or me in this case).  So
even though you have faith in the OIN picks, just make sure you go
the extra step and do a little more research.

And this is where I come in.  There was a ton of information
packed into those 3 days for even the most veteran traders to
absorb all at one time.  This is why I'd like to dedicate the
rest of my article to going over the key points that I was
trying to convey in my presentation.

Since my topic was about volatility, we need to distinguish
between the 2 different types.  Historical volatility (HV) is a
measurement of the past price behavior of the individual stock
or index.  It can be measured for any period in the past that you
wish to study.  It is quoted as a % number like 35% for example.
It tells how the prices of the stock have been distributed over
time.  In statistical terms, the volatility is really the standard
deviation of those price changes.  Looking at the past HV of a
stock can give us a clue as to what the stock's volatility might
be in the future.  Thus, giving us a clue of what kind of range
the stock might fluctuate within until our options expire.

Implied volatility (IV) on the other hand, is a % number that is
unique to each individual option that trades on that underlying
stock.  IV is the option market's best guess as to what the stock
will do in the future.  So in essence, the options are giving us
a clue about future movement of the stock.  HV is based on past
price behavior, and IV is based on future expectations.  Which
one is correct?  That's the mystery and that's what makes options
trading so unique.  You'll never know which one is correct until
your options actually expire and you can go back and see which one
was more accurate.

How do you use HV and IV?  They are used to assess the relative
expensiveness or cheapness of option premiums.  In my personal
trading, I will use IV data 95% of the time to tell me whether
option premiums are high or low.  The way to do this is to check
past levels of IV by using historical IV charts.  Just as some
stocks seems to trade within certain price ranges, IV can do the
same.  If IV is in the high end of its historical range (I like
to look at 2 years worth of IV history), then I know option
premiums are on the high side and I should look for selling
strategies.  If IV is on the low end of its historical range, then
I will look at buying strategies.  And those buying strategies
don't always entail the buying of calls.  I can look to buy puts
also.  I choose to focus on the past behavior of IV instead of the
past behavior of HV because I like to look at future expectations
and not on what happened to the stock in the past.  The traders on
the options exchanges are the ones who set IV and I'm going to
accept their levels.  They are the ones with the most information
and the most experience(most of the time), so I'm not going to
argue with their levels.  Why try to fight the market?  Just like
I said at the expo:  If you want to buy a YHOO $60 call and get a
quote of $15 for that call, do you have any idea if that's a fair
price for that $60 call?  Maybe it should be worth $13 or maybe it
should be worth $17.  The only way to truly know is to check the
IV.  If IV is high, then that $60 call is probably overpriced.  If
IV is low, then maybe $15 is a good deal.  Check the volatility.

The next step is to use an options calculator.  These are free
handy little tools that you can use to price any option.  It can
figure a stock's HV and any option's IV.  The calculator can also
be used for "what-if" situations.  Just change around the price of
the stock, change the days-to-expiration, or change the volatility
estimate and you will see how the price of your option will

Once you've seen what your option should be worth and what you
feel may happen in the future, take your break-even points and
throw them into a probability calculator.  The probability
calculator, which can also be gotten for free on the web will
give you your true odds of success.  Just plug in your break-even
or stop-loss levels and the probability calculator will tell you
what your chances of success are.  You'll be amazed at the
results.  If you are solely an option's buyer, you might be a
little disappointed at the low odds of success that most option-
buying strategies provide.

Lastly, I'd like to go over an option "skew."  Skewing occurs when
each option on the same stock trades at a different IV level.
This will occur because of the fears and speculations of the
individual option players.  Some think they can beat the market
and play the market accordingly.  Others get irrational because
of fear of loss and will trade accordingly.  When you get those
emotions factored into the market, it causes discrepancies in the
option prices and thus leads to different IV on each strike.  We
can take advantage of skewing by doing spread trades.  They can
be debit spreads, credit spreads, ratio spreads, backspreads, etc.
If you can construct the spread whereas you buy the lower IV strike
and sell the higher IV strike, you will theoretically have a
position with an edge.  Take a look at some of my older articles
that go into details on how to use these strategies.

Good luck and use all the tools available.  Happy Halloween!


Random Observations from a Private Trader
By Scott Martindale

You know, it seems to me that if we can tune out the constant
noise of market gurus, Maria Bartiromo, et al, and just think
from an historical basis what the market will probably do, we
might actually do much better with our trading, at least
for intermediate-and long-term trading.  Everyone expected at
least 10% correction in the spring, a shaky trading-range summer,
and a retest of the lows during October.  Guess what we got?  Yet
many of us failed to get out in time to miss the spring ding, and
every time the market has rallied strongly since late summer we
wondered if the fall rally was starting early.  But it all has
gone very close to consensus expectation.  Those savvy enough to
hold cash until a strong capitulation transpired have been able
to buy great companies at pretty darn good prices.

Or at least we thought last week.  The commentary from my
charting service has been oscillating between a pessimistic view
with a Nasdaq decline to the 1999 mid-year highs (about 2800) and
an optimistic view of "higher lows" and a "successful retest" of
this year’s lows, depending upon the particular market action of
the given day.

Me?  I jumped the gun a bit on the expected fall rally with these
"successful retests," bought good companies (or sold naked puts)
too soon, and failed to exit on the downdrafts for fear of
missing out on a quick recovery.

We all know how tough it is to exit on a gap down since the
dollar losses can be so significant, although I have written
recently about the importance of an objective (emotionless) exit
strategy.  If you go to cash in an oversold market, you might
miss out on a nice bounce.  If you follow a stop loss with a buy
stop to catch the recovery in this environment, you might get
whipsawed into another losing situation.  If you have been
standing pat with the strategy of sticking with your analysis and
own the stock at the given price, you are likely watching your
portfolio gradually dwindle in value.  In this market, you've had
to either stay in cash, hold positions for the long term, or play
the intraday swings.

However, I keep telling myself that a stock like JDSU has way
more upside than downside at these prices.  Have I been
brainwashed?  Or will communications infrastructure and Internet-
enabling networking and software companies truly lead us to the
Promised Land?  Today was encouraging, but will MSTR ever hit
$300 again?

There is an arresting article in the November issue of Bloomberg
Personal Finance.  It’s called "3 Wall Street Truths You Can’t
Trust."  Those false "truths" are:  (1)"Buy a good company, hold
it, and over time, you’ll make money."  (2)"You can’t time the
market."  And (3)"Over the long haul, U.S. equities outperform
all other investments."  The author then proceeds to present data
in an effort to debunk each statement.  For example, the top
companies in the past tend to reach overbought P/E’s based on
unsustainably high earnings growth rates.  If you ignore the
"life cycle" of the company and get in near the peak, you’ll
likely end up with poorer returns than other less sexy
investments.  The article suggests that the best way to time the
market is to avoid buying at the peaks, and you do that by
focusing on low P/E’s, i.e., avoid the popular momentum stocks.
Moreover, many (including Warren Buffett) believe that today’s
market is still overvalued and that corporate bonds might
actually outperform equities over the next several years.  Even
some of the more bullish gurus are implying this as well when
they say that you must pick the "right" stocks to make stellar
returns in the future because the overall indices will not show
the explosive gains of 1999.  [Of course, few people predicted
those explosive gains in the major indices for 1999 either.]

What’s this mean to us as options traders?  Well for one thing,
you should choose your LEAPS carefully.  Try to catch stocks at
very strong support - so strong that the P/E might actually be
historically reasonable.  Also, don’t get too careless monitoring
your naked put plays.  As I have found, "strong support" can
evaporate unexpectedly, and the favorable stock price you didn’t
think you’d mind paying might be just another "greater fool"

In Jim Cramer’s article in New York Magazine (Nov. 6), he says
that the October swoon has become an annual ritual, a self-
fulfilling prophecy, and that money will go back to work for the
balance of the year.  His reasoning for calling a bottom here:
(1) The weak holders finish selling, i.e., they drop their losers
and cash in their winners.  (2) Mutual fund managers want to
avoid a capital gains distribution, especially if they are down
in value for the year.  (3) Fund investors wait until after the
annual distribution to buy more.  (4) Fall earnings upside
surprises are common after lackluster summer earnings.  (5) The
"bubble" valuations in Nasdaq have been knocked down to a more
palatable level.  And (6) Fund managers must put money to work if
they want to show decent performance for the calendar year.
Where does Cramer say they’ll put their money?  In the
underperformers?  No.  He says they’ll chase this year’s momentum
stocks (like MO, MRK and MLNM) so that they can show those
winners in their portfolios at year-end.

Although the Nasdaq certainly appears to be way oversold as we
conclude mutual fund tax-loss selling season, market sentiment
may be a bit overly optimistic as most investors have continued
to express their bullishness, claiming that a market bottom is in
place despite the poor technical picture.  Also, brokerage houses
are generally expressing optimism by recommending an increase in
equity exposure in their model portfolios even as they lower
their targets on the indices.  On the other hand, the moving
average of the CBOE put/call ratio appears that it will begin
dropping after holding steady recently, indicating at least an
intermediate bottom may be in place.

Nonetheless, I’m continuing to focus on accumulating good stocks,
selling puts, and buying LEAPS at attractive prices in
anticipation of a modest post-election fall rally, although what
seemed like good prices when I bought some now seems like only
a marginal deal.  Who knows, there might even be some credence to
the speculation that Wall Street is holding back the markets to
help Bush get elected.  Stay tuned.

Attention Online Traders:

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Index       Last    Mon    Tue   Week
Dow     10971.14 245.15 135.37 380.52
Nasdaq   3369.63 -86.96 178.23  91.27
$OEX      750.93   6.59  18.16  24.75
$SPX     1429.40  19.08  30.74  49.82
$RUT      497.68   2.87  14.96  17.83
$TRAN    2744.62 157.64  58.01 215.65
$VIX       25.99  -3.12  -1.80  -4.92


JNPR      195.00 -14.63  28.63  14.00  Flirted with resistance
PKI       119.50   5.63   2.50   8.13  New, running to new highs
IMPH       75.63   2.75   4.38   7.13  New, well positioned to run
ITWO      170.00 -10.81  13.31   2.50  New, recovery for split run
LEH        64.50   2.44   0.06   2.50  Financials charging higher
CMVT      111.75  -1.50   3.44   1.94  New, finished Oct with gain
ADBE       76.06  -5.19   6.44   1.19  End of day buying on volume
MSFT       68.88   1.38  -0.19   1.19  Consolidating recent gains
BRCD      227.38 -18.59  19.47   0.88  Recovered with Buy rating
EMC        89.06  -4.38   4.63   0.25  Back above the 5-dma
RIMM      100.00 -16.63  16.69   0.06  Psychological $100 level
NTAP      119.00 -16.81  12.81  -4.00  Earnings two weeks away
BRCM      222.38 -14.38   9.69  -4.69  Trading in tandem with QQQ


RMBS       44.94  -3.75  -8.50 -12.25  New, chip controversy
SLR        44.00  -0.06  -3.94  -4.00  New, expensive acquisition
TIBX       63.00  -4.88   2.94  -1.94  Historical resistance at $65
SNDK       53.72  -2.94   4.53   1.59  Downtrend remains intact
PHCC       53.75   0.50   3.00   3.50  Needs to weaken
DGX        96.25  -0.75   6.50   5.75  Strong buy recommendation
FCEL       76.56   1.50   4.31   5.81  Dropped, back above 50-dma
PVN       104.00   4.69   4.75   9.44  Dropped, bounced off 200-dma

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time.
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


No dropped calls today


FCEL $76.56 +4.31 (+5.81) News continues to be the overriding
factor in keeping this put play afloat.  Tensions in the Middle
East on Monday continued to put pressure on oil prices.  Add to
that an alliance between Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) and
Millennium Cell (MCEL), in which the two companies will develop a
hydrogen generation system for use with portable fuel cells and
there was much excitement in the alternative energy sector
indeed.  This helped FCEL to close up $1.50 or 2.12% on Monday's
trading.  Today, with stocks rallying across the board, FCEL was
lifted even higher.  It appears that the head and shoulders
pattern that was forming will not come to be, especially with
FCEL's move today, back up above resistance at the 50-dma
($76.40).  As a result, we are no longer initiating positions.

PVN $104 +4.74 (+9.44) Enthusiasm for Financial stocks finally
trickled down to PVN this week, helping the stock to put in a
solid bounce right at the 200-dma.  As fun as the ride down was
last week, this lead-filled balloon managed to find its way into
an elevator that is going up, and has tacked on an impressive
10% so far this week.  The technicals have improved
significantly, and it looks like the stock could be on the mend.
Since we can't seem to find the down button, we'll take this
opportunity to get off the elevator and wait for another play
that is going our way.

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The Option Investor Newsletter                  Tuesday 10-31-2000
Copyright 2000, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

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MSFT $68.88 -0.19 (+1.19)  After gaining 36% from its low of
$50.44 on Oct 17th, MSFT appears to be consolidating its gains.
After hitting $70 on Monday morning, the stock retraced and found
support at $68.50 on Tuesday.  MSFT is still strongly above its
50-dma of $62.91.  The 5-dma and 10-dma are providing support
for the time being.  The 200-dma of $73.70 may act as overhead
resistance going forward.  Consider adding new positions on
a breakout over $70 with strong volume.  Conservative traders
might want to wait for a pullback to the 10-dma of $64.70.
However, if MSFT settles below the $64 area, consider stepping
aside as it could mark an end to the stock's momentum.
Volume on Monday and Tuesday was well above the average daily
volume of 37 million shares, but lower than the volume seen
last Thursday and Friday.  This can be a bullish indicator if
the pattern of increasing volume accompanies increasing price,
and slowing volume accompanies consolidation.  Daily MACD chart
patterns show the up move still in progress.

BRCM $222.38 +9.69 (-4.69) BRCM is now officially part of the
NASDAQ 100.  The two are now definitely linked, as can be seen
by the joint movement between the index and the stock.  The
intraday comparison is very close indeed.  This accounts for the
weakness in BRCM yesterday, and the strength offered in the play
today.  BRCM is being held in check by an overhead resistance at
the 20-dma near $225.  Since the intraday range on this play has
narrowed a bit, we can see a squeeze play forming.  This should
allow some explosive upside potential in BRCM when it can break
above the $225 mark with continued market support.  A breakout
above this mark could take BRCM back to the $260 area.  Support
is currently establishing itself at $210, based on this week's
basing pattern.  News for BRCM has been very quiet since the
announcement of its addition to the NASDAQ 100, so we expect
sympathetic movement to the markets and sector news to influence
the play.  Investors should be patient, and wait for BRCM to
trade above our suggested $225 resistance before entering the
play.  Consider setting trailing stops according to entry, with
a hard stop below the $210 support area to protect from a

ADBE $76.06 +6.44 (+1.19) When we started this play on Sunday, we
mentioned that there was strong support at the $69-70 level, with
the 5, 10 and 50-dmas in that area.  Yesterday, with the market
eschewing Tech stocks in favor of the old-line industrials, ADBE
fell to support, allowing aggressive traders to take a position.
The move down was despite coverage on ADBE initiated with a Buy
rating and positive comments from Robert Stephens analysts Sasa
Zorovic and Lowell Singer.  For those who missed the buying
opportunity yesterday, a morning dip today led to a bounce, with
ADBE moving higher for the rest of the day on accelerating
volume.  The large spike in buying at the end of the day is
especially bullish.  Helped by news today of alliances with
Interwoven, Nokia, and RealNetworks, ADBE managed to gain 9.25%
with twice the ADV.  A pullback to support at $75 could
provide an aggressive entry point.  A bounce off the 5-dma at
$72.08 would be another possible entry point but confirm with
volume.  Consider setting a stop at $70 however, as a move
below that level would likely see more weakness.  Overhead,
the next level of resistance can be found at $80, though a
push through recent highs of $77.70 could be enough to offer a
conservative entry point.

BRCD $227.38 +19.47 (+0.88) For traders who had the courage,
yesterday's dip near the psychological support level of $200
provided a highly profitable entry point.  With many Tech issues
weak to start off the week, Storage stocks sold off broadly.
Unable to break through resistance at the 50-dma in the early
going, the sellers came in force, dragging BRCD down $18.58 or
8.2% on 175% of ADV.  Today, the stock managed to recover all
of yesterday's losses, thanks to a strong NASDAQ and an upgrade
from Merrill Lynch to a Buy rating.  Gaining 9.36% on 145% of
ADV, today's recovery from yesterday's dip marks a higher low
from those of last week's.  Today's close was right above the
50-dma, currently at $227.31.  There is also support from the
5-dma, now at $223.86.  Along with that there is support in
increments of $5 at $225, $220 and $215.  A bounce off these
levels, backed by buying volume could provide for an aggressive
entry point.  If BRCD moves below $215 however, it could mean
more downside to come so when taking a position, consider placing
a stop at this level.  For conservative traders, a break above
today's resistance at $230 with conviction would be the target to
shoot for.

EMC $89.06 +4.63 (+0.25) The 5-dma provided resistance yesterday
as EMC tested support at $80.  Getting as low as $80.88, the
stock quickly turned and headed north.  Despite this, EMC closed
down $4.38 on 150% of ADV.  Today, with a favorable
market, EMC continued to move higher, wiping out all of Monday's
losses to close up 5.48% on over 130% of ADV.  With today's
close, EMC is now back above its 5-dma , now at $87.68.  This is
an important level since EMC's sell-off began last week when it
fell below this moving average.  Now back above it, EMC can look
forward to challenging its 10-dma at $92.07 and the 50-dma at
$94.61.  There is also support at $86 but in entering a play,
make sure that EMC can stay above this point, as a move below
could signal a return of the sellers.  With the 5-dma cleared, a
successful re-test of the moving average could allow aggressive
traders to enter this play on a bounce off this level.  For more
conservative traders, a break through resistance at $90, backed
by strong volume will be the signal to enter, as it sets EMC up
to take out its 10-dma.

RIMM $100.00 +16.69 (+0.06) Despite being in different sectors,
RIMM's fortunes are tied closely with those of Nortel's.  As two
of the larger cap Tech stocks in the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSE), the two move together in sympathy.  With Nortel selling
off yesterday in a weak market for Tech, and especially
Networking stocks as a result of a Cisco downgrade, RIMM tagged
along for the ride.  Closing below its 50-dma, now at $90.33, and
the psychological level of $100, RIMM lost over 16% on over 280%
of ADV.  Today with Tech stocks bouncing strongly, RIMM gained
back yesterday's losses, closing up over 20%, with volume over
350% of ADV.  With today's buying volume outnumbering yesterday's
selling volume, this is a good sign indeed.  Also of note is
today's resumption of coverage by Credit Suisse First Boston with
a Buy rating.  Closing right at $100, an entry can be had at
current levels, confirmed with a strong TSE, while a bounce off
the 5-dma at $98.37 would be a more aggressive entry point.
Overhead, the next level of resistance is at the 10-dma, now at
$108.95.  Make sure that RIMM stays above the $95 area, as a
failure below that level could signal further selling.

JNPR $195.00 +28.63 (+14.00) Giving investors a Halloween treat,
JNPR soared higher today, flirting with the $200 resistance
level.  Continuing weakness in the Optical sector yesterday
pushed our play down to close at $166.38 as tax-loss selling
continued to scare investors in the Optical sector.  With
October drawing to a close, yesterday's unpopular stocks
became favorites again today, with the AMEX Networking Sector
(NWX.X) gaining an impressive 9.6% today.  As good as that
sounds, JNPR nearly doubled the Networking sector's performance
today, jumping higher by more than 17%, once again scaling the
ascending trendline (near $176).  Tilting our bias back to the
bullish side, JNPR saw robust buying volume, and managed to
close back above the 5-dma ($185.63) for the first time in over
a week.  If today's recovery is for real, JNPR should be able to
hold above this level in the face of any profit taking going
forward.  Use the $185 level as a point to trigger your stop
losses.  If the stock can't hold above there, consider it a sign
that JNPR will have a hard time moving higher.  Our ideas from
the weekend still stands - while intraday dips (below $185) are
buyable, the more prudent strategy is to wait for buying volume
to propel the share price through $200 before initiating new

NTAP $119.00 +12.81 (-4.00) Ok, let's set some guidelines for
this play.  For one, the marketplace is very volatile and let's
face the Internet reality - it's a jungle out there!  Just eight
sessions ago, we saw momentum take NTAP up to a new 52-week
record at $152.75; only to see the share price vanquish amid the
market treachery.  Monday's intraday low of $104.88 rivaled last
Thursday's deep cut to $102.38 and today's failure to tow the
mark above $120 raises the red flags.  Apologies for the bleak
picture and perhaps negative sentiment, but it's better to be in
cash now than sorry later.  NTAP's earnings are closing in on us
too, so perhaps this event will generate some enthusiasm of its
own.  The company is confirmed to report on November 14th, after
the market.  But for now, let's look for strength above $120 and
$125 followed by subsequent moves through the 10-dma ($128.86)
to bolster confidence.  A convincing rally through those levels
signals even the more conservative to consider taking an entry
on strong bounces.  If shares pullback to $115, take heed and
exit at this virtual cut-off point.  Moves to the underside of
$115 spell trouble and are just too risky under the
present market conditions.

LEH $64.50 +0.06 (+2.50) The financials traced the ascending
broader markets this week and LEH is on its way to a strong
recovery.  It charged higher on Monday to contend with the
rising 50-dma, which is currently at $68.15.  The bullish
attempt to mount this technical opponent was pressured earlier
today by an estimate cut from MSDW.  Analyst Henry McVey cut
Lehman's 4Q profit estimates by 11%, taking it to $1.30 from
$1.46 citing "sloppy conditions in both the equity and fixed
income markets could pressure principle transactions and banking
revenue."  He did, however, maintain an Outperform rating and an
$86 price target on LEH.  After shaking off the negative
sentiment and resulting losses, LEH ended the session on a
positive note.  The stock even demonstrated a bit of spunk as it
cleared the $65 hurdle and flirted with $66.44 during the last
hour of trading.  LEH's convincing performance today hints that
a continued rally on the INDU could take the stock above the 50-
dma, but let's not get too hasty.  Consolidation across the
broader markets would take LEH down a couple notches and thus,
provide a more optimal entry point.  If however the financial
rally extends, you might take positions if LEH bolts back above
the $65 level amid strong trading activity.


SNDK $53.72 +4.53 (+1.59) Even with today's 9.24% gain, the
downtrend for SNDK remains intact.  While it was a considerable
move up for the day, volume was below average, and the stock
encountered formidable resistance from its 10-dma, currently at
$56.21.  Yesterday, SNDK managed to briefly pierce the key
support level of $50 and while it did hold today, it shows that a
break below that mark is indeed possible.  Connecting the highs
since early September, and drawing a line at $50 support,
SNDK is currently trapped within a bearish descending triangle,
making lower highs and lower lows.  For conservative traders, the
key level to watch for is $50.  A break below that point on high
volume will confirm negative momentum and serve as an entry
point.  Aggressive traders willing to take on more risk by
entering early will be watching the 10-dma.  A failure to rally
above that moving average will serve as an ideal entry point.
Legal troubles with Lexar continue to cast a pall over SNDK,
adding to its negative momentum.

TIBX $63.00 +2.94 (-1.94) Call it an entry point or a warning
sign, TIBX managed to post a modest gain today.  The four
month downtrend is still intact, as our play continues to find
resistance at the 10-dma ($66.94), also the location of the
center line on the regression channel (which has been acting
as resistance all month).  Historical resistance at the $65
level came into play again today, as the attempted recovery ran
out of gas late this afternoon.  Even stronger resistance
exists between $71-72, also the site of the 30-dma ($71.75).
Although volume has been below the ADV this week, it is still
running stronger on the down moves.  Support has been building
in the vicinity of $58, creating a $7 tradable range for nimble
swing traders.  Any rollover near resistance looks like an
attractive point for initiating new positions, especially if
selling volume is on the rise.  TIBX will eventually break out
of this range, with a downside break looking the most likely
right now.  Conservative traders will use a move below $58 as
their trigger to jump aboard for the next leg to the downside.

DGX $96.25 +6.50 (+5.75) There was some Trick and Treating from
DGX this Halloween.  The treat came early as shares quickly
broke $90 in Monday's session amid robust volume levels.  The
early weakness provided a solid entry into the decline.  DGX
slithered lower until the buyers stepped at the $84 and $85
level.  The shares continued to volley around that price as the
traders haggled for a few more hours mid-afternoon.  Some
traders received a real buying treat at $83.25, Monday's
intraday low before DGX mounted a late day recovery on
accelerating volume.  Some enterprising traders may have been
enticed to take an entry.  In hindsight though, it was a
ghoulish trap.  DGX opened to the positive today and received a
Strong Buy recommendation from UBS Warburg.  Analyst Ricky
Golwasser also issued a 12-month price target of $138 p/s.  DGX
almost rolled over in the $95 range during today's session, but
to the contrary, the share price broke through that upside
resistance to test the century mark at $99.  The play is at a
critical point.  Previously on the decline, the 5-dma line
($97.06) has served as a deterrent and offered a premium entry
for the aggressive traders.  It's here that the more aggressive
will look for a high-volume rollover and take new positions.
Wait for the confirmation and keep stops tight.

PHCC $53.75 +3.00 (+3.50) The trending bottom at $50 finally
gave way in Monday's session.  PHCC pushed through the recent
intraday low of $47.50 to tag $46.75, but the downside (no pun
intended) was the lack of volume.  Today PHCC rallied with the
broad markets.  It easily cruised through the 5-dma ($51.40) and
10-dma ($53.68) and mounted an attack on the critical 200-dma
($54.10) line.  Today's break through $55 wasn't a good sign for
the play.  If the downtrend's momentum is to resume with any
intensity, PHCC needs weaken and show signs of distress at the
current price level and soon.  Wait for clear direction before
beginning new plays.

Attention Online Traders:

NobleTrading.com has become the first online trading firm to
offer both Direct Access Trading, and web based trading to its
customers. Trade Direct using any ECN, SOES, and SelectNet, or
trade right through your browser using our web based trading
application. FREE DSL service for active traders.

Visit our website and sign up for a Free real-time demonstration!


PKI - PerkinElmer Inc. $119.50 +2.50 (+8.13 this week)

PerkinElmer is a global technology company, which provides
products and systems to the Telecom, Medical, Pharmaceutical,
Chemical, and Semiconductor markets.  The company's Life
Sciences unit provides chemical reagents, sample handling and
measuring instruments, and computer software to bio-screening
and population screening laboratories.  PKI's Optoelectronics
unit produces products such as high volume and high
performance specialty lighting sources, detectors, optical
fiber communications components, and imaging devices.  The
company's Instruments division makes sophisticated analytical
instruments and imaging detection systems.

While high-flying technology stocks have taken a beating
recently, shares of PKI have been running to new highs.
Investors are starting to take notice as evidenced by
significantly heavier buying volume over the past three months
that has propelled the stock to a 100% gain in that short period
of time.  Nothing goes up in a straight line, and the law of
gravity took its toll earlier this month, pulling shares of PKI
back to consolidate between the $95 - $100 area.  The recent
rally on the DJIA has helped our new play run higher, tagging
$121 in today's session before pulling back in the afternoon to
close at $119.50.  Launching the latest round of buying was the
company's strong earnings report and bullish forward-looking
statements on October 19th (see below).  Since the latest round
of good news, PKI is finding support at the 10-dma ($111.63),
just below the 5-dma ($113.44).  Near-term support can be found
between $113-115, and this level is a logical place to consider
new entries in the event of intraday weakness, and also stop
areas in the event of a breakdown below the levels.  Wait for
buying volume to pick up first, and after entering, place your
stop at the $113 level.  Resistance sits at $121, and
conservative players will want to wait for shares to trade
through this level before initiating new positions.

Getting investors attention on October 19th, PKI announced
earnings of 66 cents per share, far ahead of analyst
expectations of 45 cents.  The company followed these numbers
by raising its earnings estimates for 2000 and 2001, and
investors responded by going on a buying spree.  Since the
announcement, PKI has moved to post new 52-week highs, north
of $120.

BUY CALL NOV-115 PKI-KC OI=196 at $ 9.50 SL=6.75
BUY CALL NOV-120*PKI-KD OI=494 at $ 6.50 SL=4.50
BUY CALL NOV-125 PKI-KE OI=274 at $ 4.38 SL=2.50
BUY CALL DEC-125 PKI-LE OI=  0 at $ 9.00 SL=6.25  Wait for OI!!
BUY CALL DEC-130 PKI-LF OI=  0 at $ 7.13 SL=5.00  Wait for OI!!

SELL PUT NOV-110 PKI-WB OI= 10 at $ 2.50 SL=4.00
(See risks of selling puts in play legend)

Picked on Oct 31st at  $119.50     P/E = 57
Change since picked      +0.00     52-week high=$121.00
Analysts Ratings     4-0-1-0-0     52-week low =$ 37.75
Last earnings 10/00  est= 0.45     actual= 0.66
Next earnings 01-18  est= 0.57     versus= 0.61
Average Daily Volume   = 635 K

CMVT - Comverse Technology $111.75 +3.44 (+1.94 this week)

Comverse Technology Inc. is the world leader in multimedia
telecommunications applications. Founded in 1984 and
publicly-traded since 1986, Comverse Technology Inc. is based in
Woodbury, Long Island, New York and is a NASDAQ-100 Index
company.  Through its Comverse Network Systems division, the
market leader, the Company markets its Access NP and TRILOGUE
Infinity Enhanced Services Platforms, which enable wireless,
wireline, and internet companies to offer, to their residential
and business customers, a growing range of revenue-generating
enhanced services.

Pundits are still debating about whether or not the NASDAQ
has found its bottom.  Investors in CMVT are already wondering
when the stock will take out its all-time highs.  Having found
its bottom in mid-October at the $85 level and successfully
testing its 200-dma (now at $90), the stock has since moved
higher.  With today's close, CMVT is one of the few Tech stocks
to end the dreaded month of October in the positive.  One of the
factors contributing to CMVT's performance is the appreciation of
its holdings in wireless networking software maker Ulticom Inc.
(ULCM).  Since going public in April at $20 a share, ULCM has
gone up over 150%.  As a majority shareholder of ULCM, this is
good news indeed for CMVT.  Most recently, CMVT has been in a
trading range, between $100 and $115.  Connecting the lows since
mid-October however, reveals that the stock has been making
higher lows, and having conquered resistance at $110, appears
poised to take out even stronger resistance at $115.  A break
above $115 will set CMVT up for its next hurdle, at $120.  From
there, the stock would be poised to challenge its all-time highs.
For aggressive traders, an ideal entry point can be found on a
bounce off $107, where the 5 and 10-dmas are currently converged.
Support can also be found in increments of $5 at $110 and $105.
In managing this play, consider using a stop around the $105
level.  A break below this point would end CMVT's string of
higher lows and signal a possible break of its current up-trend.
For conservative traders who want to enter on strength, a break
above resistance at $115, back by high volume would be the ideal
entry point.

As a company with strong ties to Israel, it may be influenced by
the current situation surrounding the Middle East.  News
affecting the region will likely add to CMVT's volatility.  As
always, we recommend using stop losses to limit risk.  In
entering this play, make sure that news is in your favor.
Considering CMVT’s relative strength in recent adverse market
conditions, a favorable market could mean great potential upside
in this play.

BUY CALL NOV-105 CQZ-KA OI= 694 at $11.88 SL= 9.00
BUY CALL NOV-110*CQZ-KB OI=1131 at $ 8.75 SL= 6.00
BUY CALL NOV-115 CQZ-KC OI= 770 at $ 6.50 SL= 4.50
BUY CALL DEC-110 CQZ-LB OI=  13 at $14.00 SL=10.50
BUY CALL DEC-115 CQZ-LC OI=  82 at $11.75 SL= 8.75

SELL PUT NOV-100 CQZ-WT OI=1015 at $ 2.38 SL= 4.00
(See risks of selling puts in play legend)

Picked on Oct 31st at   $111.75    P/E = 90
Change since picked       +0.00    52-week high=$123.88
Analysts Ratings     12-4-0-0-0    52-week low =$ 54.56
Last earnings 08/00   est= 0.34    actual= 0.36
Next earnings 11-28   est= 0.36    versus= 0.28
Average Daily Volume = 2.43 mln

ITWO - I2 Technologies $170.00 +13.31 (+2.50 this week)

ITWO is a global provider of intelligent eBusiness solutions for
supply chain management and enhanced business applications.  On
June 12, 2000 ITWO merged with Aspect Development (ASDV) to
create one of the largest software providers for eBusiness and
eMarketplace solutions.  TradeMatrix, its Internet marketplace,
provides an open digital community powered by i2's advanced
optimization and execution capabilities that help manufacturers
plan production and other related operations.  Clients include
3M, Compaq, Ford and Nokia.

ITWO's steep decline amid the recent tech correction last week
positioned it for a nice recovery run into December's proposed
2:1 stock split.  The company recently beat the Street with its
solid earnings report.  3Q revenues rose 118% to $319.5 mln from
$146.3 mln in the same year-ago period blowing the estimate
range of $264 mln to $285 mln right of the water.  On a per
share basis, ITWO came in at $0.02 cents above the consensus
estimates at $0.12, further demonstrating the company's
accelerating growth.  At the same time, the BoD announced a 2:1
stock dividend payable on or around December 4th pending
shareholders approval.  A shareholder vote is schedule for
November 28th.  As a blue chip firm in the e-commerce software
arena that forms the backbone of the electronic marketplace,
ITWO should remain buoyant over the short-term.  On a deep dip
to $145.70 last Thursday, ITWO found a bottom.  The buyers
started nibbling as the tide turned on the NASDAQ that day, and
it mounted a swift recovery to the topside of $160.  Fast mover
to say the least!  This week $155 and $160 supported ITWO on
intraday pullbacks; yet ITWO continues to struggle to move
beyond the $170.75.  Aggressive traders might consider looking
for entries at the current levels if ITWO can extend today's
$13.31, or 8.5% advance.  If you'd like to target shoot
intraday, keep your mark above $160 on the dip.  Trading below
this level is quite risky and it'd be wiser to consider buying
into strength on the uptake.  Expect some resistance at the $180
level.  Make sure to keep stops tight.

In recent news, I2 Technologies announced it will be part of a
venture to merge two purchasing exchanges: AirNewco and
MyAircraft.  It along with 12 equity partners, including major
airline and aerospace manufactures, will create a single
exchange for the $500 bln aviation industry in hopes of cutting
operating costs.

BUY CALL NOV-165 QYI-KM OI= 477 at $15.75 SL=11.25
BUY CALL NOV-170*QYI-KN OI= 423 at $13.25 SL=10.00
BUY CALL NOV-175 QYI-KO OI= 243 at $10.88 SL= 8.25
BUY CALL DEC-175 QYI-LO OI=   9 at $18.00 SL=13.00
BUY CALL DEC-180 QYI-LP OI=  11 at $16.00 SL=11.50

Picked on Oct 31st at   $170.00    P/E = N/A
Change since picked       +0.00    52-week high=$223.50
Analysts Ratings    13-20-4-0-0    52-week low =$ 30.69
Last earnings 09/00   est= 0.10    actual= 0.12
Next earnings 01-16   est= 0.15    versus= 0.10
Average Daily Volume = 4.43 mln

IMPH - IMPATH $75.63 +4.38 (+7.13 this week)

Applying their broad knowledge and research capabilities, IMPH
specializes in providing patient-specific cancer diagnostic
and prognostic information, with a particular expertise in
difficult to diagnose tumors, prognostic profiles in breast
and other cancers, and lymphoma/leukemia analysis.  The
company currently works with more than 7400 physicians
specializing in the treatment of cancer patients and their
database currently contains more than 550,000 patient profiles.
In addition IMPH can link its information with that of its
tumor registry business to provide data on the full continuum
of care, from diagnosis through treatment and outcomes on many

Another company that has found a way to capitalize on Americans
yearning for good health.  IMPH applies its diverse
database to the treatment of many of the most insidious forms
of cancer.  If information is power, then IMPH is well
positioned with its vast database of patient records, and
connections to a large number of physicians.  The company
currently is working on more than 50 projects with over 20
different pharmaceutical/biotechnology companies including 21
US-based and four international clinical trials.  How's that
for diversification?  After a mild consolidation in August,
shares of IMPH started surging higher and in the past 2 months
the price has increased by more than 100%.  The strong buying
volume points to the trend continuing, and with the persistent
strong earnings growth (see news below), it seems likely that
the trend will continue.  Even with the recent market
volatility, IMPH has moved solidly higher, with the 10-dma
(currently $67.19) supporting prices throughout the recent
rally.  We want to play this one as long as the stock can
maintain its strong character, so we are looking for new entries
to present themselves on a bounce from the $70 support level
(fractionally above the 5-dma).  Today's strong gain pushed
the stock to yet another all-time high, and more conservative
players will want to wait for a push through this level (above
$76) before initiating new positions.  In either case, use the
$70 level as your stop loss.  If IMPH violates this support
level, it will be our sign that the rally is losing steam.

IMPH pleased investors last a week ago, reporting record results
for its third quarter, and marking the company's 27th
consecutive quarter of record revenues.  Revenues increased 64%,
Operating Income Surged 66%, and BioPharma/Genomics revenues
jumped 97% over the year ago period.  Company management
followed this up with bullish comments for the future, pointing
to the robust growth in the Oncology drug market.

BUY CALL NOV-65 QPH-KM OI= 22 at $12.88 SL=9.75
BUY CALL NOV-70 QPH-KN OI=213 at $ 9.25 SL=6.75
BUY CALL NOV-75*QPH-KO OI= 85 at $ 6.50 SL=4.50
BUY CALL DEC-70 QPH-LN OI=  1 at $12.63 SL=9.50
BUY CALL DEC-75 QPH-LO OI=  4 at $10.00 SL=6.25

Picked on Oct 31st at   $75.63     P/E = 106
Change since picked      +0.00     52-week high=$75.63
Analysts Ratings     0-3-1-0-0     52-week low =$ 8.53
Last earnings 10/00  est= 0.20     actual= 0.15
Next earnings 01-18  est= 0.22     versus= 0.16
Average Daily Volume   = 315 K


SLR - Solectron $44.00 -3.94 (-4.00 this week)

Solectron Corp. is the world's largest supply chain facilitator
for customized electronics technology, manufacturing and service
solutions.  Founded in 1977, Solectron's integrated technology
solutions, materials, manufacturing and operations, and global
services offer customers competitive outsourcing advantages,
such as access to advanced manufacturing technologies, shortened
product time to market, and more effective asset utilization.

In the news today, Solectron announced their offer to buy Nat
Steel for $2.4 billion in cash, or $4.53 per share.  Several
analysts criticized the deal.  Dain Rauscher Wessel's David
Parrish stated that, "Roughly 70% of NatSteel's revenues are
tied to the PC sector, with roughly half of those from Apple."
In addition, the price offered is approximately equal to SLR's
annual revenue stream, which was seen as a hefty valuation.
Solectron closed down almost ten percent on a strong up day in
the market when almost all of the major technology indexes
rallied.  Volume was high with over 11.5 million shares trading,
nearly three times the daily average of 3.3 million shares.  SLR
is still above the 200-dma of $41.63, but is just below the 50-
dma at $45.16.  The twelve month chart pattern shows a choppy
pattern of trading between support at $35 and resistance in the
range of $47, with no clearly definable up or down trend.  SLR
closed at $44, which is situated strategically below the 10-dma
of $47.4, and the 5-dma of $46.71.  A break below the 200-dma
could be a sign of severe weakness for this stock.  However, a
move above $48 would mean that strength has returned, and new
put positions should not be opened.

BUY PUT NOV-50 SLR-WJ OI= 370 at $6.75 SL=$5.00
BUY PUT NOV-45*SLR-WI OI=3595 at $3.00 SL=$1.50

Average daily volume = 3.3 mln

RMBS - Rambus Inc. $44.94 -8.50 (-12.25 this week)

Synonymous with high-speed memory, RMBS designs, develops,
licenses and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface
technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness
of computer and consumer electronics products.  The company
licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell
memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology,
and markets its solution to systems companies in an effort to
encourage them to design Rambus interface technology into
their products.  The major advantage of RMBS' technology is
that it cost-effectively increases the data transfer rate,
allowing semiconductor memory devices to keep pace with
faster generations of processors and controllers, thus
supporting the accelerating data transfer requirements of
multimedia and other high-bandwidths applications.

Another high-flyer bites the dirt.  One of the darlings of
1999's technology-driven rocketship we know as the NASDAQ, RMBS
gave us some amazing momentum runs when its RDRAM memory was
touted as the "only logical choice" for future PCs.  Since the
tech-wreck this spring, the landscape has changed significantly,
with concrete evidence now in plain view, that the PC sector is
slowing down.  Then it seemed like there was a daily news story
about which Semiconductor company was suing RMBS over
intellectual property rights, threatening the company's revenue
stream, which is almost entirely dependent on royalty payments.
This situation will likely take some time to sort out through
the court system, but now RMBS has a new problem to deal with.
A rumor surfaced this morning that INTC was throwing in the
towel on their upcoming Rambus-based products, removing one more
leg from the stool.  Although these were apparently just rumors,
the fact that neither company would comment, just added to the
negative bias and shares plunged early today, tagging $36.50
before finding any buying relief.  The only positive news that
has surfaced lately has been the overwhelming demand for the new
Sony Playstation2 as we head into the holiday season.  For those
of you that don't know, the game unit is built around RMBS
memory, and every unit sold will put money in the bank for RMBS.
Although the buying pushed the stock up to almost $50 by midday,
it wasn't meant to last, and shares settled lower by the close.
The gap down this morning will likely present formidable
resistance and we would look at a rollover near this level as an
attractive entry point for new positions.  Use the $50 level as
your stop loss point as well.  It will take a significant change
in sentiment for RMBS to head through this level, and if it
does, you can be reasonably confident that the recovery won't
end there.  But with slowing demand for its chips, rumors about
INTC jumping ship, and the litigation burden hanging over its
head, RMBS looks like it could give us a nice run to the

BUY PUT NOV-45*BYQ-WI OI=2567 at $6.00 SL=4.00
BUY PUT NOV-40 BYQ-WH OI=2083 at $4.00 SL=2.50

Average Daily Volume = 3.72 mln


ADBE - Adobe Systems $76.00 (+1.19 this week)

A long-time leader in desktop publishing software, ADBE
provides graphic design, publishing, and imaging software
for Web and print production.  Offering a line of application
software products for creating, distributing, and managing
information of all types, the company generates nearly 75% of
sales through publishing software products such as Photoshop,
Illustrator, and PageMaker.  Its Acrobat Reader, which uses
portable document format (PDF) is popping up all over the
Internet, as businesses shift from print to digital

Most Recent Write-Up

When we started this play on Sunday, we mentioned that there was
strong support at the $69-70 level, with the 5, 10 and 50-dmas in
that area.  Yesterday, with the market eschewing Tech stocks in
favor of the old-line industrials, ADBE fell to support, allowing
aggressive traders to take a position.  The move down was despite
coverage on ADBE initiated with a Buy rating and positive
comments from Robert Stephens analysts Sasa Zorovic and Lowell
Singer.  For those who missed the buying opportunity yesterday,
a morning dip today led to a bounce, with ADBE moving higher for
the rest of the day on accelerating volume.  The large spike in
buying at the end of the day is especially bullish.  Helped by
news today of alliances with Interwoven, Nokia, and
RealNetworks, ADBE managed to gain 9.25% with twice the ADV.  A
pullback to support at $75 could provide an aggressive entry
point.  A bounce off the 5-dma at $72.08 would be another
possible entry point but confirm with volume.  Consider setting
a stop at $70 however, as a move below that level would likely
see more weakness.  Overhead, the next level of resistance can
be found at $80, though a push through recent highs of $77.70
could be enough to offer a conservative entry point.


A broad rebound in the Tech sector Tuesday helped shares of ADBE
climb higher throughout the day.  The stock staged an impressive
rally in the final thirty minutes of trading by gaining over $2
on robust volume.  A return of that late-day buying could lift
shares of ADBE above resistance at the $76 level.  Aggressive
entries could be had at the $76 level early Wednesday morning
should the NASDAQ extend its recent rally.  A momentum-based
move backed by high volume above the aforementioned $77 level
would provide a more confirming entry point.  A pull back to
support at the $74 level might provide a solid entry should
the profit takers return early tomorrow.

BUY CALL NOV-70 AXX-KN OI= 801 at $8.88 SL=6.25
BUY CALL NOV-75*AXX-KO OI=1443 at $6.00 SL=4.00
BUY CALL NOV-80 AXX-KP OI= 651 at $3.75 SL=2.50
BUY CALL DEC-75 AXX-LO OI= 114 at $9.63 SL=6.50
BUY CALL DEC-80 AXX-LP OI= 100 at $7.00 SL=5.00

Picked on Oct 29th at    $74.81    P/E = 61
Change since picked       +1.19    52-week high=$85.06
Analysts Ratings      4-7-2-0-0    52-week low =$26.69
Last earnings 09/14   est= 0.52    actual= 0.57
Next earnings   N/A   est= 0.29    versus= 0.46
Average Daily Volume = 2.01 mln

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A Treat On "All Hallow's Eve"...

The market surged higher today, boosted by strength in technology
issues as the group recovered from a recent sharp sell-off.

Monday, October 30

The market ended mixed Monday as investors rotated money out of
the technology sector into cyclical stocks.  The Nasdaq closed
down 86 points at 3,191 while the Dow finished up 245 points to
10,835.  The S&P 500 index was up 19 points to 1,398.  Trading
volume on the NYSE reached 1.16 billion shares, with advances
beating declines 1,875 to 1,019.  Activity on the Nasdaq was
moderate at 1.7 billion shares, with declines beating advances
2,234 to 1,764.  In currency trade, the Euro rose against the
dollar in the wake of the soft GDP data while in the U.S. bond
market, the 30-year Treasury fell 7/32, pushing its yield up to

Sunday's new plays (positions/opening prices/strategy):

United Health  UNH    NOV95P/N100P    $0.62    credit   bull-put
WellPoint      WLP    NOV95P/N100P    $0.56    credit   bull-put
McLeoud USA    MCLD   DEC15C/DEC17C   $1.62    debit    bull-call
Recoton        RCOT   NOV17C/NOV10P   $1.50    credit   strangle
JDS Uniphase   JDSU   NOV60P/NOV90P   $13.75   credit   bull-put

All of our new positions offered reasonable entry points during
today's session.  The new S&P 500 Index (hedge) position will be
tracked with an initial cost basis of 1388.

Portfolio Plays:

Industrial stocks rallied today as investors rotated into old
economy companies with steady earnings.  In contrast, technology
issues resumed their recent slide on continued worries about
dwindling profits.  Shares of traditional stocks also gained new
support from the latest economic data that showed U.S. incomes
and spending were up in September, at the fastest rate in nearly
a year.  Consumer spending has been one of the primary factors
behind America's ongoing economic expansion and analysts believe
that continued spending will help soften the effects of slower
industrial growth.  Among the Dow components, the top performers
included aluminum producer Alcoa (AA), heavy equipment builder
Caterpillar (CAT), chemicals giant DuPont (DD), International
Paper (IP) and financial services firm American Express (AXP).
At the same time, the Nasdaq slid lower amid worries over weak
earnings in the technology group.  The sell-off began early in
the session after a major Wall Street brokerage cut its share
price target for leading Internet network equipment-vendor Cisco
Systems (CSCO).  A Lehman Bros. analyst reduced the 12-month
price target for Cisco on worries that Internet companies will
slow down spending on technology.  Cisco's decline put pressure
on other Internet networking companies and makers of fiber-optic
telecommunications gear also resumed their downward slide after
being battered last week on Nortel Networks' reported weakness
in equipment sales.  Biotechnology stocks also dragged on the
market as they slumped under the weight of a recent gloomy sales
projection from sector giant Amgen (AMGN).  In the broader market,
basic materials companies and financial firms were among the top

Our portfolio produced widely mixed results during the volatile
session.  Blue-chip issues continued their recent rally while
technology stocks fell amid a classic rotation to the old line
companies on the Dow.  Analysts attributed the sharp divergence
in the market to month-end window-dressing, where money managers
dump losing stocks and buy the winners before disclosing a list
of fund holdings to clients.  That effect was apparent in many of
the leading technology issues, especially in the Networking and
Internet sectors.  Software maker Microsoft (MSFT) was one of the
few Nasdaq bright spots, climbing almost $2 to finish near $70
after The Wall Street Journal reported Microsoft is considering
investing more than $1 billion in media firm News Corp.'s (NWS)
Sky Global Networks satellite TV unit.  Our recent LEAPS/CCs play
is off to a great start, but the position must be monitored for
potential upside adjustments as the short (short) option is at
$65.   The majority of our successes came in the industrial group
today.  Bullish positions in Allstate (ALL), BellSouth (BLS) and
Bears Stearns (BSC) all benefited from the upside activity.  In
addition, our transportation sector issues Federal Express (FDX)
and Delta Airlines (DAL) enjoyed significant rallies, and both
of these positions are now providing profitable, early-exit
opportunities.  In the small-cap group, Caremark RX (CMX) and
Fairfield Communities (FFD) led the way and our recent straddle
in Globix (GBIX) surpassed all possible expectations, providing
a $4 profit on $6 invested as the issue fell to a low near $8 at
the close of trading.

Tuesday, October 31

The market surged higher today, boosted by strength in technology
issues as the group recovered from a recent sharp sell-off.  The
Nasdaq closed up 178 points at 3,369.  The Dow recorded its third
consecutive triple-digit rally as investors rotated to blue-chip
issues.  The industrial average ended 135 points higher at 10,971.
Trading activity on the Nasdaq was heavy at over 2 billion shares
exchanged, with advances leading declines 2,778 to 1,257.  Trading
volume on the NYSE reached 1.34 billion shares, with broad market
advances beating declines 2,058 to 890.  In the bond market, the
30-year Treasury fell 15/32, pushing its yield up to 5.79%.

Portfolio Plays:

Technology stocks roared back to life today, similar to a classic
scene from "Dawn of the Dead," as traders shopped for bargains in
many of the recently downtrodden sectors.  Blue-chip industrial
stocks also extended their gains in a fourth consecutive session
of upside activity, garnering momentum as the session progressed.
The Nasdaq's bullish movement was led by advances in Networking
and Internet shares, particularly in the business-to-business
segment.  Chip stocks managed solid gains and telecommunications
equipment companies rebounded on news of better-than-expected
earnings from Alcatel (ALA).  France's telecom leader reported
a record performance in the third quarter, underlined by strong
gains in data and optical networking sales.  In addition, Alcatel
expects 2001 revenue growth to be higher-than-expected, with some
indications showing growth of up to 25% in the company's telecom
business.  Among the Dow's upside movers were shares of General
Motors (GM), Home Depot (HD), Intel (INTC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), and
Boeing (BA).  International Business Machines (IBM) also climbed
higher after announcing a $3 billion share buy-back program.  The
rally in broad market issues was boosted by strength in retail,
biotechnology and brokerage stocks.  Cyclical issues consolidated
after Monday's big rally, with chemical and paper shares falling
on mild profit-taking.  Major drug, utility, and consumer stocks
also moved lower and oil service issues slumped amid a decline in
December crude prices.

Our portfolio was dominated by recovery gains in the technology
group.  Juniper Networks (JNPR) was the big winner, up over $28
to $195 as companies that sell fiber-optic networking equipment
joined the rally in telecom issues.  Other notable advances were
seen in JDS Uniphase (JDSU), up $10; and Broadcom (BRCM), which
also ended $10 higher.  In the biotechnology group, Human Genome
Sciences (HGSI) rallied $5.50 to finish at $88, EMC Inc. (EMC)
topped the data storage sector, climbing almost $5 to $89, and
Home Depot (HD) led the retail group, up $2 to close near $43.
Strength in the finance group boosted our bullish position in
Knight Trading (NITE) and drug sector gains produced a favorable
rally in Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND).  Read-Rite (RDRT) led
the small-cap category, up almost $2 to 7.50 and there may yet
be hope for our bullish (long-term) calendar spread.

Questions & comments on spreads/combos to Contact Support
                         - NEW PLAYS -

The recent "blue-chip" rally has produced a number of requests
for bullish credit spreads and today's rebound in technology
issues suggests the market may have some upside potential in the
coming sessions.  While each of these plays offers a favorable
risk/reward potential, they must also be evaluated for portfolio
suitability and reviewed with regard to your strategic approach
and trading style.

CRGN - Curagen  $64.63  *** A Big Day! ***

CuraGen is primarily a genomics drug discovery and development
company.  Curagen, in collaboration with other companies and
through its own internal programs, researches, develops and uses
technologies based on the discovery of genes and their functions
and relationships.  The use of genomics technologies is intended
to accelerate the discovery and development of consumer products
to improve human and animal health, and agricultural products.
The company's genomics technology and information systems have
three primary systems, each of which is fully operational and has
been commercialized.  These are SeqCalling for gene sequencing
and discovery of variations in gene sequences; GeneCalling, a
patented technology for gene discovery and comprehensive gene
expression analysis; and PathCalling for analyzing the function
and relationships between genes (and the proteins these genes
encode) in biological pathways.

Early in October, CuraGen announced it will combine efforts with
Gemini Genomics, an English biotech firm, on a new drug target
discovery collaboration, which includes the application of the
company's "PathCalling" technology.  During the same week, CRGN
officials announced they had licensed five new drug targets to
Biogen, completing the research portion of the two companies'
collaboration.  This follows a long-term agreement with Abgenix,
in which the two companies have selected a number of antibody
drug targets for further evaluation and possible development as
therapeutics for cancer and inflammatory diseases.  As part of
the five-year collaboration, CuraGen and Abgenix are planning to
identify and develop up to 120 antibody drug candidates against
cancer, inflammation and autoimmune diseases.

Analysts say the speed at which these targets were identified
validates the company's ability to rapidly deliver high-quality,
novel drug targets and Lehman Bros. recently characterized the
company as a "premier" genomics-based drug company with a broad
range of technologies relating to genetic interpretation.  The
company's drug discovery partnerships are cost beneficial and
CuraGen's revenue strategy, a program focused on discovering
complex genetic diseases in oncology, inflammation and metabolic
areas, is expected to provide excellent earnings growth in the
coming years.

With favorable premiums in the November options, this position
offers an excellent speculation play for traders who are bullish
on the issue.  However, the stock is slightly over-extended and
a brief consolidation is expected.  Target a higher premium in
the spread initially, and make adjustments as necessary to enter
the position.

BUY  PUT  NOV-45  CQX-WI  OI=103  A=$0.56
SELL PUT  NOV-50  CQX-WJ  OI=350  B=$0.93
INITIAL NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.50-$0.56  ROI(max)=12%

VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals  $96.06  ** Bracing For A Rally? **

Vertex Pharmaceuticals designs, develops and commercializes novel
small molecule drugs that address significant markets with major
medical needs, including the treatment of viral diseases, cancer,
autoimmune and inflammatory diseases and neurological disorders.
The company has discovered and advanced nine drug candidates into
clinical development, including one product, the HIV protease
inhibitor Agenerase (amprenavir), which has reached the market.
Vertex has a broad product pipeline, with seven drug candidates in
Phase II clinical development and significant collaborations with
Glaxo Wellcome, Aventis, Schering AG (Germany), Eli Lilly, Kissei
and Taisho.  These relationships provide it with financial support
and valuable resources for research programs for the development
of its clinical drug candidates and for the marketing and sales of
the company's marketed products.

This company is simply one of our favorites for long-term stock
portfolios and the demand for drug manufacturers has helped the
issue remain relatively bullish in the midst of recent selling
among a number of technology industries.  Fundamentally, the
outlook for Vertex is positive; revenues are expected to grow
substantially in the coming year and the company's stock should
see higher share values in the future.  The current technical
trend is favorable and we offer this position as a conservative
drug sector play, based on the chart indications.  Obviously,
the issue is prone to a correction with the broad market but a
reasonable cost basis exists near the previous support area at

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  NOV-70  VQZ-WN  OI=177   A=$1.31
SELL PUT  NOV-75  VQZ-WO  OI=1075  B=$1.81

ETN - Eaton  $68.31  *** On The Rebound! ***

Eaton is a global manufacturer of highly engineered products that
serve industrial, vehicle, construction, commercial, aerospace
and semiconductor markets.  Eaton's principal products include
hydraulic products and fluid connectors, electrical distribution
and control equipment, truck drive-train systems, major engine
components, ion implant devices and a wide variety of controls.

In early October, Eaton reported quarterly earnings that exceeded
analysts' consensus estimates.  The company's CEO said that third
quarter results were consistent with the revised expectations and
the performance, with operating EPS off only 3% from last year's
record results, clearly shows the benefits of Eaton's business
diversification, even with the incredibly volatile conditions in
North American vehicle markets.  He also commented that Eaton is
expected to deliver record earnings for the year, despite the
severe downturn in the heavy truck industry and that Eaton's new
projections for fourth quarter results are generally in line with
analyst forecasts.

Axcelis Technologies, Eaton's 82%-owned semiconductor equipment
subsidiary, turned in an outstanding performance during the most
recent quarter and Eaton officials have announced intentions to
divest its ownership of the company via a stock dividend.  The
Axcelis shares will be distributed to Eaton shareholders in the
amount of approximately 1.15 shares of ACLS for each ETN share.
The company's divestiture of its ACLS stock will be tax-free to
Eaton and its shareholders, and the final ratio will be based on
the actual number of Eaton shares outstanding on the date of
record; December 6, 2000.

Those of you who favor long-term ownership of a great blue-chip
company like Eaton can use this position to establish a potential
entry point in the issue, with limited downside risk.

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  NOV-60  ETN-WL  OI=3  A=$0.38
SELL PUT  NOV-65  ETN-WM  OI=0  B=$0.81
INITIAL NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.50-$0.56  ROI(max)=12%

PCYC - Pharmacyclics  $53.81  *** Earnings Rally! ***

Pharmacyclics is a pharmaceutical company developing products to
improve upon current therapeutic approaches to the treatment of
cancer, atherosclerosis and retinal disease.  The company's lead
texaphyrin-based product candidates are XCYTRIN, a molecule to
enhance the effects of radiation and chemotherapy in treating
cancer; LUTRIN, a molecule for use in photodynamic therapy of
cancer; ANTRIN, a unique molecule to treat atherosclerosis via
photoangioplasty and OPTRIN, a molecule to treat age-related
macular degeneration, which is a disease of the retina caused by
growth of small blood vessels that can lead to blindness.  PCYC
has also developed CITRA VU, an oral magnetic resonance imaging
contrast agent.

In the past few months, Pharmacyclics has reported favorable
results from clinical trials involving a number of drug products
and bullish momentum from the news has boosted the issue to a
new trading range.  In addition, earnings are due on or about
November 2 and most of the other companies in the group have
exceeded analysts' consensus estimates with outstanding results.
Our conservative position offers a method to participate in the
outcome of the report with relatively low risk.

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  NOV-40  QPY-WH  OI=0   A=$1.00
SELL PUT  NOV-45  QPY-WI  OI=15  B=$1.43
INITIAL NET CREDIT TARGET=$0.50-$0.56  ROI(max)=12%

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