Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 04/16/2001

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 04-16-2001
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.                        1 of 1
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        04-16-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10158.60 + 31.70 10184.60 10046.50 0.90 bln   1297/1743 
NASDAQ   1909.50 - 51.86  1946.92  1891.88 1.57 bln   1589/2269
S&P 100   605.99 -  2.26   608.54   598.91   totals   2886/4012
S&P 500  1179.68 -  3.82  1184.64  1167.38           41.8%/58.2%
RUS 2000  450.90 -  4.12   453.97   450.66
DJ TRANS 2737.04 - 29.55  2774.37  2726.64
VIX        30.04 -  0.24    32.07    29.98
Put/Call Ratio      0.77

Testing Conviction

A fresh round of cautious comments and lowered expectations
within the tech sector weighed on the broader market averages
Monday.  The bearish tones this morning came with little
surprise as the topic of deteriorating fundamentals will move to
the forefront this week as we enter the heart of earnings season.

The return of disconcert over the fundamentals in the tech space
could have merely served as the catalyst to take profits after
last week's encouraging rally.  After all, the Nasdaq Composite
(COMPX) rallied some 14 percent in the four trading days prior to
Monday's session.  That type of advance needs to be consolidated.
As such, the bulls amongst us might argue that Monday's action
served as a constructive consolidation day, noting the light
volume on which stocks pulled back.  Trading activity on the
NYSE totaled only 900 million shares, and a mere 1.5 billion
shares traded on the Nasdaq.

Nevertheless, cautious comments were bestowed upon the tech
sector Monday morning which did bring back the bears.  Lehman
Brothers (NYSE:LEH) cast a shadow of doubt on Intel's
(NASDAQ:INTC) earnings for fiscal 2001 after the chip giant
said it would cut the price of its Pentium 4 in an attempt to
stimulate demand.  In addition, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
(NYSE:MWD) cut its earnings estimates for Intel, reflecting
concerns over the continued loss of pricing power.  Morgan
Stanley also cut its estimates for Lattice Semiconductor

The cautious comments concerning the chip sector weighed
heavily on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX.X).
The SOX finished lower by roughly 3.5 percent in the wake of
the aforementioned analyst comments.  Although, buyers did step
in at the 560 level early Monday morning, so we'll want to watch
that level as the week progresses.

To digress, we must recall that the SOX did rally roughly 30
percent from its lows last week, so a pullback today is not all
that surprising.  The SOX did advance up to the 600 level last
week, which is a pivotal point for the index.  As such, traders
operating in the tech sector will want to pay close attention to
the SOX as it approaches 600.  Obviously, the action in the SOX
this week will be predicated upon earnings reports so make sure
to stay tuned in!

The reason I revisit the SOX again this evening is to reinforce,
in my opinion, that it's crucial in determining the direction of
the COMPX.  For its part, the COMPX did follow the path of the
SOX lower.  But, the buyers re-emerged near the 1900 level and
propped the tech index off its lows.  If the COMPX trades below
the 1900 level early Tuesday, we'll look for support near 1850
and again near 1800.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) bounced
around the flat line for the majority of trading.  The INDU did
spike higher into the close of trading to close off about 30
points from its intraday high.  The leading issues within the
INDU were scattered across several sectors, but there were
several standouts, including ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Johnson &
Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and 3M (NYSE:MMM).

Concerning the advance in shares of ExxonMobil, the broader
energy sector displayed impressive relative strength in
Monday's session.  News regarding a refinery accident in the
United Kingdom sent the price of oil higher, which, in turn,
set the energy sector a light with bids.  I'm not sure if
Monday's advance in energy issues marks the beginning of a
new upward trend.  But, I do know that we have had success
with several energy plays on our call list recently, which
tells me that sector is working.  Take a look at Equitable
Resources (NYSE:EQT) and Calpine (NYSE:CPN), which are both
currently on our call play list.

Back to the tech sector, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) warned
of lower-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings after
the bell this afternoon.  Cisco officials said fiscal
third-quarter revenues would fall about 30 percent below
its prior quarter revenues to about $4.69 billion.  The
previous estimates called for the networking giant to earn
$5.95 billion in sales and 8 cents per share in earnings.  In
addition, Cisco said it would write-off $2.5 billion in excess
inventory and layoff 8,500 workers.

The Cisco miss is obviously a BIG warning, and the fact that the
company is laying off 8,500 employees does not sit well with me.
However, John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, has been "talking down"
his guidance since the firm's first warning earlier this year.
In short, while Cisco's miss is disconcerting, it was highly
forecasted by Chambers.  So the question at this point is
whether this bad news was already discounted into the stock
price?  Shares of Cisco fell about $1.20 in the after hours
session on heavy trading.  Keep in mind that Cisco's 52-week
low sits at $13.19.  Also watch the price action in Cisco-related
issues Tuesday morning, such as Applied Micro Circuits
Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR).  All of the aforementioned
issues were trading lower in the after hours session.

In other earnings news, Vitesse Semiconductor (NASDAQ:VTSS)
reported results that met previously lowered estimates.  But the
firm's sales fell more than anticipated.  It's worth noting that
Vitesse's fiscal second-quarter report tonight marked the first
time in eight years that the company reported a sequential drop
in revenues.

On a positive note in the tech sector, Computer Associates
(NYSE:CA) announced that it would beat fourth-quarter estimates.
Although the company didn't officially announce its earnings,
which are scheduled for release on May 22nd, its news may help
to lend a bid to competitors within the software sector,
including BMC Software (NASDAQ:BMC), I2 (NASDAQ:ITWO) and
Commerce One (NASDAQ:CMRC).

Away from tech earnings, several large banks announced quarterly
profits this morning, which were met with a lukewarm reception.
Among the big banks that announced this morning included
Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Bank of New
York (NYSE:BK).  For the most part, these banks either met or
slightly exceeded consensus estimates, but failed to induce the
real buyers into stepping in.  The KBW Bank Sector Index (BKX.X)
finished fractionally lower.

The earnings list tomorrow is slated with plenty of heavy
hitters.  Here's a short list of some of the companies worth
watching Tuesday: Bank One (NYSE:ONE), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT),
Enron (NYSE:ENE), Intel (Big One), Johnson & Johnson, Phillip
Morris (NYSE:MO), Sprint (NYSE:FON), Texas Instruments
(NYSE:TXN) and Veritas Software (NASDAQ:VRTS).

Along with the myriad metrics in the form earnings reports
tomorrow, several key economic indicators are set for
release.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released in
conjunction with Housing Starts for March at 8:30 EST.  Later
in the morning, Industrial Production for March will be
announced.  Obviously, the market wants to see a benign CPI
similar to the PPI last week so that the Fed can continue
focusing its monetary policy on stimulating growth.

Getting back to the Cisco warning, the market knew that it
was coming and now it becomes a question of whether this
announcement was already priced in.  There were real buyers
that stepped up to the plate last week, who carried the
COMPX to its second-best week in terms of percentage gain.
And the Cisco warning will very much test the conviction of
those buyers last week.  If the Nasdaq can shrug off the
Cisco warning and not come completely undone, I'll get very
bullish on this market.  Conversely, if the COMPX breaks
down early Tuesday, I think it would be prudent to
revisit the short side in the tech sector.  Just keep in
mind that there are a plethora of earnings announcements
tomorrow morning that could change the dynamic dramatically
over night.  Good luck!

Eric Utley
Assistant Editor

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ADVP - Advance PCS $56.50 +1.82 (+1.82 this week)

Advance PCS is the nation's largest independent provider of
health improvement services, touching the lives of more than
75 million health plan members and managing more than $20 million
annually in prescription drug spending.  The company offers
health plans a wide range of health improvement products and
services designed to improve the quality of care delivered to
health plan members.

ADVP has been on a roll for the last several months, and has
stayed firmly above its 200-dma since last summer.  Undaunted
by the sell offs in the overall indexes, ADVP has formed a
strong upward channel since mid-January, driven by excellent
earnings and an increasing level of investor attention to this
rapidly growing niche player in the health care sector.  Over
the last few weeks, ADVP has made several presentations at
health care conferences geared to securities analysts, which
seems to have acted as a stimulus for additional bullish
movement in the stock.  Last week, ADVP made a presentation at
the Merrill Lynch Health Services Investor Conference, which
follows presentations at the Robinson Humphrey 30th annual
Institutional Conference, and the Bank of America Securities
Healthcare Conference in March.  With all this publicity, and
strength in the specialized medical services sector, ADVP is
well positioned to ride its bullish momentum possibly to the
52-week high of $59.25 established in March.  ADVP will not
report earnings until the end of May, so traders have plenty
of time for this play.  Over the last few days, ADVP has
established a pattern of higher lows at $51.56, $54, the
10-dma of $55.40, with heavy overhead resistance at $58.
Traders could take positions at current levels or possibly at
a pullback to support at $55.50.  Alternatively, a move above
$58 on strong volume would almost certainly clear a path to
$59.50 with little resistance in between.  Keep an eye on
others in the sector like LH, HRC and PPDI, and set stops at
$53.  We will end the play if ADVP closes below $53.

BUY CALL MAY-50 QVD-EJ OI= 75 at $ 8.70 SL=6.25
BUY CALL MAY-55*QVD-EK OI=480 at $ 5.30 SL=3.50
BUY CALL JUN-50 QVD-FJ OI=215 at $10.10 SL=7.00
BUY CALL JUN-55 QVD-FK OI=327 at $ 7.10 SL=5.00


KMG - Kerr-McGee Corporation $71.52 +2.49 (+2.49 this week)

Kerr-McGee Corporation is an Oklahoma City-based company engaged
in two worldwide businesses: oil and gas exploration and
production and the production and marketing of titanium dioxide
pigment.  Kerr-McGee ranks among the largest U.S.-based
independent exploration and production companies.  The company
explores for oil and gas in selected basins around the world and
has producing fields in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.K. sector of
the North Sea and the South China Sea, and onshore in the United
States, Ecuador, Indonesia and Kazakhstan.

Positive sector sentiment along with individual accolades have
combined to help drive shares of KMG forward.  The company
recently won the National Safety Award for Excellence for the
third time in the past five years.  This is the country's highest
honor in the field of environmental safety, and was a major win
for KMG.  With AMEX's Oil Index (XOI) flirting with new 52-week
highs, it's no surprise that KMG's stock price has also followed
suit.  Today's gain of 3.61 percent on 1.18 times the average
daily volume was good enough to put the stock past formidable
resistance at $71.  With oil prices heading higher due to
decreasing inventories as of late, KMG finds itself in a good
position, as the company recently spent over $500 million on oil
exploration blocks in the Central Gulf.  With earnings scheduled
for the morning of April 25th, and KMG's record of well-received
reports, this could attract investor interest as the date
approaches.  Continued buying pressure resulting in a bullish
surge above today's intraday high of $71.70 could allow
conservative traders to take a position.  Just make sure that
industry peers APC, P, XOM are also moving higher.  We are
placing a protective stop at $69 so make sure the stock continues
to close above this level.  Higher-risk players may target
pullbacks to horizontal support at $71, $70 and $69 along with
the 5-dma at $69.39, but confirm bounces with volume.

BUY CALL MAY-65 KMG-EM OI= 62 at $7.50 SL=5.25
BUY CALL MAY-70*KMG-EN OI= 24 at $3.80 SL=2.50
BUY CALL MAY-75 KMG-EO OI= 10 at $1.55 SL=0.75
BUY CALL JUL-70 KMG-GN OI=345 at $5.80 SL=3.75
BUY CALL JUL-75 KMG-GO OI=411 at $3.50 SL=1.75



VRSN - VeriSign, Inc. $42.26 -2.69 (-2.69 this week)

VeriSign is the leading provider of Internet trust services
and digital certificate solutions needed by Web sites,
enterprises and individuals in order to conduct secure
electronic commerce and communications over IP networks.  VRSN
has used its secure online infrastructure to issue over 100,000
of its Website digital certificates and over 3.5 million of its
digital certificates for individuals.  The company also offers
the VeriSign Onsite service, which allows an organization to
leverage the company's trusted service infrastructure to develop
and deploy customized digital certificate services for use by an
organization's employees, customers and business partners.

As though it ran into a brick wall, VRSN's rally from last week
was stopped cold at the descending 50-dma (currently $45.37),
giving vigilant traders a heads up that the stock would have a
hard time continuing its nascent rally this week.  Sure enough,
the NASDAQ gapped lower this morning, and VRSN went along for
the ride giving up 6% on the day.  As was the case throughout
the market, VRSN saw very light volume, possibly due to the fact
that many traders took an extra day to extend their holiday
weekend.  Earnings are only a little over a week away, scheduled
for April 26th after the closing bell.  While earnings in the
past have provided an upside bias ahead of the report, in the
current environment, it looks like VRSN is more likely to head
down ahead of its report.  Earnings warnings are still driving
this market lower, and the severe warning from CSCO tonight
after the close will likely have an effect on most technology
related stocks tomorrow morning.  Daily stochastics are still in
the overbought zone, and the expected weakness tomorrow may be
the catalyst necessary to complete the oscillator rollover and
drive the stock down towards support near $35.  Resistance has
begun to build near the $45, and aggressive traders will want to
target entries on a downward bounce from this level.  More
conservative entries will appear as the stock falls through
near-term support at $41.  Volatility is alive and well, with
earnings season in full swing, so we are playing with a tight
stop at $45.  Similar bearish chart patterns have shown up on
competing Internet Security firms like RSAS, CHKP, and ISSX.
Negative movement in these stocks will confirm the bearish tone
in the sector and likely push VRSN lower.

BUY PUT MAY-45 QVR-QI OI=108 at $7.50 SL=5.25
BUY PUT MAY-40*QVR-QH OI=147 at $4.70 SL=2.75
BUY PUT MAY-35 QVR-QG OI=144 at $2.90 SL=1.50



CPN - call play
Adjust from $49 up to $51

EQT - call play
Adjust from $73 up to $75

AGIL - call play
Adjust from $14.25 up to $14.75

NVLS - put play
Adjust from $50 down to $49

BEAS  - put play
Adjust from $36 down to $33


VRTX $39.83 -3.78 (-3.78) It appears that VRTX is having
difficulty breaking above it's 50-dma (now at $44.54).  Upon
approaching that level in the past couple of trading sessions on
decreasing up volume, the stock has encountered formidable
resistance.  Today VRTX ended the day down 8.67 percent on
greater than average volume and in the process, closed below its
5-dma at $40.15 and breaking its string of higher lows and higher
highs.  Having also violated our protective stop set at $40, we
are dropping coverage of this call play.


No dropped puts tonight.


Simple Indicators: The TICK
By Molly Evans

A friend sent a great article to me this weekend entitled, "Keep
It Simple."  It's the philosophy of Stuart Taylor, president of
Taylor Consulting, Inc.  In an interview, Taylor recounts how as
a young trader in the early 1980s, he stuck with simple concepts.
Having enjoyed some nice successes, he then began to get more
sophisticated in his approach to trading, adding more oscillators,
Elliott waves, time cycles, and Fibonacci calculations.  What
Taylor soon learned, however, is that more was not necessarily
better.  "Unfortunately, as I did that," he said, "my trading
degraded.  I got to be a worse and worse trader as my methodology
became more complex."

Taylor relates that success was his once again when he went back
to the basics.  "As I threw things back out; my trading again
became profitable.  I went from simple to complex and evolved
all the way back to simple.  I talk to a lot of traders in my
business.  You will find most of the really, really good traders
go with simplicity."

How do you like that?  In the past year, I've been to how many
seminars?  Six, I believe.  And what have I learned?  Quite a
few things but most importantly, I've learned that simplicity
is indeed the best strategy.  I've subscribed to expensive
software packages, have read countless books, and have made all
the mistakes that new traders make.  I've blown up accounts
and run to the park in tears.  But I've always come back.
Determination, persistence, discipline, and getting back to
basics is what works.

We all need a system.  We all need our own rulebook.  I've
preached it here so many times.  Do I still make mistakes?
Of course.  Does my own system fail me?  No, I fail my system.
Do all of my trades win?  Of course not.  But am I successful?
Yes, and it feels great.  Just like you, we're all evolving
as traders.  That process never ends.  We learn new things
about the market and more importantly, things about ourselves,
everyday that we participate.

If you have yet to check out the Market Wizards books by Jack
Schwager, you need to get on it.  If you'll go to the Amazon
site and read the reviews of the latest Wizards books, you'll
see that there are many criticisms by the public that these
wizards won't fess up to their systems.  They guard them
jealously.  I would gather that they feel that if the public
reads them and begins to utilize the method, that it would
no longer work for them.  Maybe that's true.  But think about
it.  How many different approaches do you know of?  Since I've
been heavily involved in the market, I see so many different
traders using different systems.  Some are programmed, some
are based on moving averages, some on Fibonacci, Elliot Waves,
all those things that Stuart Taylor was talking about in his
simplicity interview.

We know that what works for us, can work for you and it doesn't
mean that it'll stop working for us.  Why is that?  Because
the cornerstone of what we teach is discipline.  Discipline in
awaiting setups.  Discipline to learn a few key concepts and
learn them well.  Discipline to keep losses small.  Discipline
to limit position sizes and to know when to take a break.  They
all factor into your success or demise as a trader.

So where's the meat here?  I'll tell you.  As I said, I too
like simplicity.  I trade divergences, I await overbought and
oversold conditions before entering and I trade the tick indicator.
You've seen us chart the MACD and stochastic divergences many
times.  If you still want more, well then, write to me.  We
always like to know what you want.  However, I don't believe that
I've expounded upon the TICK in an article yet...

I've alluded to the TICK many times in my market wraps on the
Index Skybox site.  The TICK is the net number of stocks on the
NYSE that just traded up or down.  If there were 2000 stocks that
just traded up and 1500 that just traded down, the tick is +500.
If you trade with Q charts, put in the symbol: TICK.NY - there
is also one for the Nasdaq.  Its symbol is: TICK.NQ.  What you
want to watch for is trend lines, breaks in the trend and extremes.

Oftentimes, the TICK will foretell a movement in the S&P or the
QQQ's.  For me, I get interested when I see a + or - 700 tick
reading.  I also like to see a break in the trend of the tick.
Some pretty big moves have been foretold there first.  What
happens when the S&P makes a higher high but the ticks haven't
moved in step?  Just as in our oscillators, that's a divergence
and makes that higher high suspect.

In general, you just need to watch the action of the tick.  When
does it stop going up?  When does it stop going down?  What's
the corresponding price action doing?  The tick is valuable for
sensing the loss of momentum in an up or a down move.

In a bear market, when you notice large up tick readings for
several days in a row, likely you're seeing an interim top.
Similarly, a series of large downticks will often mark an
either short term or intermediate term bottom.  It's always
telling you something.  For an initial acquaintance with
the indicator, throw some bollinger bands around the tick candles
and watch it.  Length: 20 and two standard deviations.  Watch
what happens to rallies and sell offs when those tick candles hit
the bollinger bands.

Unfortunately, I can't get Q charts to pull up a single chart
this evening.  My service today from them was shoddy at best.
Q charts makes some beautiful charts for us but when they
won't fill in, they don't do us much good.  Perhaps next week
I'll be back with some TICK charts.  I'll watch for some
good examples in the coming week.

Your questions and comments are welcome.  Good luck.


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NVLS - Novellus Systems, Inc. $48.03 -0.20 (-0.20 this week)

Novellus Systems, Inc. is a manufacturer of chemical vapor
deposition (CVD), physical vapor deposition (PVD) and copper
electrofill systems.  As circuit geometries shrink in size, the
deposition equipment manufactured by Novellus becomes an
increasingly important technology for manufacturing advanced
semiconductor devices.  Novellus products provide solutions to
both the productivity and quality problems facing the worldwide
semiconductor manufacturing industry today.  They have developed
concepts that have improved the quality of deposited films while
increasing system throughput and continuously reducing costs of

Most Recent Write-Up

It has been said that where the Chip stocks go, the NASDAQ
follows.  So it is with good reason that the Tech sector has
rallied, thanks to strength in the Semiconductors, as measured by
the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).  Chip equipment-maker
NVLS has moved higher on sector sympathy this week, but despite
the prevailing optimism, there are reasons both fundamental and
technical to think that it may head lower.  Fundamentally, little
has changed this week in the Chip sector.  Book-to-bill ratios
are still falling and inventory is still building up.  If
anything, the fundamentals have deteriorated, as MOT recently
warned, and LRCX missed estimates in their earnings report,
citing an "unprecedented contraction" in new orders.  In spite of
this, famed Salomon Smith Barney Semiconductor analyst Jonathan
Joseph upgraded the sector yesterday from a Neutral to Outperform
rating.  His reasoning was based on anecdotal reports that order
and shipment data is so bad that it couldn't possibly be worse.
As NVLS heads into earnings on April 23rd, please note that the
stock may be affected by reports from Intel on April 17th and AMD
on April 18th.  Having failed numerous times to break through
formidable resistance at $50, we are placing our closing stop at
this point.  Failed rallies above this level, along with $49, may
allow aggressive traders to jump in, but confirm with volume.
For an entry on weakness, wait for selling volume to take NVLS
below $46.50 before making a play, but confirm direction with
movement in rival AMAT.


NVLS rolled over near the $50 level yet again Monday, and looks
poised to work lower.  Although its chart looks relatively
strong, the fundamentals in the chip business may not be able
to sustain NVLS' current price.  We're looking for continued
technical weakness Tuesday, and would enter new put positions
on a break below support at the $48 level.  Make sure to
confirm direction in the chip sector, by monitoring the SOX.

BUY PUT MAY-50*NLQ-QJ OI=100 at $6.40 SL=4.50
BUY PUT MAY-45 NLQ-QI OI=329 at $3.90 SL=2.50


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