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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 05/21/2001

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 05-21-2001
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******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        05-21-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    11337.90 + 36.20 11345.70 11232.80 1.18 bln   2075/1034	
NASDAQ   2305.59 + 106.71 2305.73  2198.14 2.31 bln   2603/1381
S&P 100   678.60 + 10.22   678.77   665.42   totals   4678/2415
S&P 500  1312.83 + 20.87  1312.95  1287.87           65.9%/34.1%
RUS 2000  515.91 +  9.63   515.91   506.38
DJ TRANS 3004.35 + 25.40  3008.93  2970.38
VIX        23.24 -  1.02    24.82    23.13
Put/Call Ratio      0.47
******************************************************************

NASDAQ Breakout!

The Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) broke out above a key near-term
resistance level Monday, led by massive gains in the big caps.
What's more, volume confirmed the Nasdaq's advance.  The 30-day
average volume for the Nasdaq has been around 1.95 billion
shares.  Monday's trading activity topped 2.2 billion shares.
Volume was also relatively robust on the NYSE as 1.17 billion
shares exchanged.

The key resistance level hurdled by the Nasdaq Monday was, of
course, the 2250 level.  The overhead resistance around 2250
had kept the Nasdaq contained for roughly five weeks, while the
tech-laden index traded sideways in an effort to consolidate its
gains from the April 4th low of 1619.  And now with Monday's
breakout on healthy volume, the Nasdaq Composite is poised to
work its way up to 2500.  Insofar as pullbacks are concerned,
the 2250 level should now provide support.




Also worth noting was the breakout in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) -
the index tracked by the QQQs (AMEX:QQQ).  The NDX closed above
the psychologically significant 2000 level for the first time
since early March, which coincided with the QQQ contract
settling above the $50 level.  The NDX tracks the top 100 stocks
on the Nasdaq market in terms of market capitalization.  And its
price action Monday epitomized the awesome gains in big cap
tech stocks.  For example, shares of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO)
gained 13 percent, shares of Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ:SUNW)
gained nearly 15 percent and shares of Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM)
added 8.5 percent.  There have been some rumblings recently that
enterprise spending is beginning to show signs of rebounding,
which has been the catalyst behind the recent advances in shares
of Cisco and Sun.  If we continue to hear anecdotal evidence
that information technology (IT) spending is rebounding, stocks
such as Cisco and Sun will continue to work higher as longs
return to the beaten down big caps and shorts scramble to
cover their bearish bets.




The Nasdaq Composite's 4.85 percent gain Monday far surpassed
the paltry 0.32 percent gain in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (INDU).  But many market watchers suggested that the
Nasdaq was due to play catch-up with the Dow.  Furthermore,
several isolated news events amongst Dow components pressured
the blue chip index.  Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) said Monday
morning that it would buy the Clairol hair-care business from
Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY).  PG's $4.95 billion cash
purchase of Clairol resulted in its shares shedding $2.23.  In
addition, shares of Phillip Morris (NYSE:MO) were punished for
$2.15 after a Dow Jones headline reported that the company may
have violated securities laws regarding its upcoming IPO of
its Kraft unit.  Aside from the Phillip Morris and PG news,
perhaps the greatest source of pressure on the Dow Monday
stemmed from the rotation into the more aggressive issues in
the Nasdaq.  While it still seems early in the cycle for
tech to be out performing blue chips, Monday's action may
morph into a near-term trend where the Dow languishes and
the Nasdaq shines.



Despite the under performance in the Dow - it is a price
weighted index, after all - the S&P 500 (SPX.X) charged
higher, moving further away from that staunch resistance
down around 1270 level.  In fact, the broad market index plowed
past resistance at 1300 Monday.  The continued strength in the
bank sector, as measured by the KBW Bank Sector Index (BKX.X),
and the breakout in the Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X)
bode very well for the health of the broader market and the
potential perpetuation of its advance.  Further, continued
strength in the two aforementioned sectors will continue to
lift the S&P 500.  As for near-term resistance in the S&P,
I'll be watching the 1325 level.  But if that resistance
level is cleared, the S&P could very well trade up to 1375,
which is its high traced in late January.  In terms of
support, pullbacks to the 1300 level may offer solid entries,
and thereafter the 1270 level should now serve as a floor
where bulls defend long positions.




With the Dow now firmly above the 11,000 level, the Nasdaq
Composite and Nasdaq-100 back above key resistance levels
and the S&P 500 on the high-side of 1300, sentiment has
most definitely shifted to the bull camp.  But there are
several disconcerting developments that may beg caution in
the near-term.

For starters, the Arms Index, which accurately forecasted
the market bottom in early April, is flashing a big
caution sign with its overbought readings.  The NYSE Arms
reading dipped down to 0.65 Monday.

Further, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) has been
in free-fall for the past five trading sessions, and closed
at 23.24 Monday, down 1.02.  The VIX is a contrarian indicator
and a general gauge of fear in the broader markets.  The VIX
at 23 Monday is telling us that fear is a rarity currently and
that market participants are growing complacent.  Additionally,
the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN.X) plunged below the 55
level Monday, which is far below its reading of 65, when it
debuted in late January.  Of course we only have four months
of historical data on the VXN, but its steep slide recently
does suggest that a lot of fear has been displaced from the
Nasdaq-100.

I think that it's also prudent to address the recent advance
in the price of crude oil.  The June contract for crude
futures hit the key $30 mark early Monday morning on speculation
that the OPEC member countries would not consider a production
hike this summer.  The implications of rising crude oil prices
are such that it could impact the bottom-lines of many of the
cyclical companies, whose shares have been powering the Dow
and the S&P 500 higher recently.

Finally, we are entering into second-quarter earnings warning
season.  I think it's important to point out that the recent
advances in the broader market averages, especially the
Nasdaq Composite, were predicated upon an improvement in
business conditions.  And we have been hearing of anecdotal
improvements from the likes of the data storage sector and the
uttering of the "bottom" word by the likes of Cisco Systems
officials and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) officials.
However, if the earnings warnings and lowering of guidance
resurface in the coming weeks, the markets may be setting
up for an extended pullback.

Then again, the aforementioned issues I just addressed may
be the perfect building blocks for the proverbial wall of
worry, which the broader market averages steadily climb over
during the coming weeks.

Eric Utley
Assistant Editor





**************
NEW CALL PLAYS
**************

EXTR - Extreme Networks $39.50 +3.81 (+3.81 this week)

Extreme Networks is engaged in the design, development,
manufacture and sale of high performance networking products
based on Gigabit Ethernet technology.  The company's next-
generation (Layer 3) switches transmit more information faster,
and enable enterprises such as network service providers and
content providers to migrate from older networks to current
technologies.  The company's Summit and BlackDiamond switches
share a common hardware, software, and management architecture
that facilitates a relatively short product design and
development cycle, reducing the time-to-market for new products
and features.

It took a long time for EXTR to come back to earth, but the
popping of the Internet bubble certainly sped up the process.
Now that the economy has slowed down enough to get the Fed to
loosen those purse strings, we are seeing capital start flowing
towards select Networking companies like EXTR.  Buyers have been
piling into the stock over the past four days, lifting it for a
40% gain over that period of time.  That's 10% per day, for 4
days.  What's going on?  It certainly isn't the analyst love
fest, as the only recent coverage by that band of hooligans came
from UBS Warburg on Thursday, as they initiated coverage with a
soul-stirring Hold rating.  Maybe the masses know something the
analysts don't?  No matter.  We're traders and we'll take what
the charts give us any day of the week.  It doesn't take a
rocket scientist to see the breakout over the $35 resistance
level last week, followed by the push through the $38 resistance
level today.  Simply put, EXTR is now setting higher highs and
higher lows as it heads down the road to recovery.  If you're
looking to take a piece of the recovery, consider dips to
support at $35-36 or near $38 to provide aggressive entry
points.  More conservative traders will want to step aboard as
EXTR trades to new relative highs; let a move through $40 be
your signal.  Overhead resistance will likely materialize at
$43, 45 and then $50.  Place initial stops at $35.

BUY CALL JUN-35 EUT-FG OI=2312 at $7.40 SL=5.25
BUY CALL JUN-40*EUT-FH OI=2270 at $4.20 SL=2.50
BUY CALL JUN-45 EUT-FI OI= 418 at $2.00 SL=1.00
BUY CALL SEP-40 EUT-IH OI= 404 at $9.80 SL=7.00
BUY CALL SEP-45 EUT-II OI=1356 at $7.80 SL=5.50
BUY CALL SEP-50 EUT-IJ OI= 875 at $6.20 SL=4.25

SELL PUT JUN-35 EUT-RG OI= 387 at $2.70 SL=4.50
(See risks of selling puts in play legend)

Average Daily Volume = 5.99 mln
http://www.premierinvestor.com/oi/profile.asp?ticker=EXTR


QCOM - Qualcomm Inc. $70.99 +5.61 (+5.61 this week)

QUALCOMM Incorporated (www.qualcomm.com) is a leader in developing
and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products
and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology.
The Company's business areas include CDMA integrated circuits and
system software; technology licensing; the Binary Runtime
Environment for Wireless(TM)(BREW(TM)) applications platform;
Eudora. e-mail software; digital cinema systems; and
satellite-based systems including portions of the Globalstar(TM)
system and wireless fleet management systems, OmniTRACS. and
OmniExpress(TM). QUALCOMM owns patents that are essential to all
of the CDMA wireless telecommunications standards that have
been adopted or proposed for adoption by standards-setting bodies
worldwide.  QUALCOMM has licensed its essential CDMA patent
portfolio to more than 100 telecommunications equipment
manufacturers worldwide.

Including QCOM as a new call play feels like welcoming back
an old friend, as QCOM's patented and world renowned CDMA
technology is making headlines once again.  After reporting
revenues of $713 million for its first fiscal quarter, a 29%
increase from the year ago quarter, as well as earnings of
29 cents per share on April 25th, QCOM has been range bound
until last week.  The 50-dma of $56.41 has acted as strong
support, yet until last Wednesday, QCOM was experiencing
difficulty clearing resistance at $63.  However, QCOM has been
releasing excellent news regarding new contracts and
improved business developments in China, which have awakened
renewed investor interest in this cellular telecom equipment
giant.  Last Tuesday, China's second largest mobile phone
company, China Unicom, announced that they had signed contracts
to buy $1.5 billion worth of telecom equipment from Lucent,
Motorola, Nortel, and Ericsson.  QCOM stands to win big from
this, as they will receive royalty patents and licensing fees
on mobile phones made in China.  Lucent, Motorola and others
will join together to build China's first CDMA wireless network.
QCOM has worked many years to establish a presence in China, and
this announcement has been a dream come true for QCOM's
management team as well as their shareholders.  Adding to the
momentum Monday was an announcement that QCOM had signed a
commercial license with ZTE corporation, another telecom
equipment manufacturer in China, by which ZTE will sell CDMA2000
equipment in China and worldwide.  Investors could hardly
contain their enthusiasm, as buying pushed QCOM up past
its 200-dma of $69.38 for the first time in months.  While
Monday's volume came in lighter than the 3 month average daily
volume of 18 million shares, it was higher than the 10 day
average of 12 million shares.  A pullback in the Nasdaq seems
likely, and could provide an entry point, possibly at the $70
support level.  The next support level of $68.50 could also
serve as a possible entry point, if the Nasdaq and others in
the wireless sector like NOK and MOT are strong.  We are
setting a liberal closing stop at $65, as QCOM is currently
a very strong play.

BUY CALL JUN-65 AAO-FM OI= 6511 at $ 8.10 SL=5.75
BUY CALL JUN-70*AAO-FN OI=12811 at $ 5.00 SL=3.50
BUY CALL JUL-65 AAO-GM OI= 5178 at $10.50 SL=7.50
BUY CALL JUL-70 AAO-GN OI= 8832 at $ 7.80 SL=5.75

Average Daily Volume = 18.3 mln
http:www.premierinvestor.com/oi/profile.asp?ticker=QCOM


PDLI - Protein Design Labs Inc. $74.97 +4.87 (+4.87 this week)

Protein Design Labs Inc. is a leader in the development of
humanized monoclonal antibodies for the prevention and treatment
of disease.  The company has licensed rights to its first
humanized antibody product, Zenapax, to Hoffman LaRoche, Inc.,
and its affiliates, which markets it in the U.S, Europe, and
other countries for the prevention of kidney transplant
rejection.  The company has announced seven other humanized
antibodies in clinical development for automimmune and
inflammatory conditions, transplantations, and cancer.

Positive sector sentiment and a stellar earnings report are just
two of the reasons for the strong rally in shares of leading
monoclonal antibody Biotech firm PDLI.  Since early April, the
Biotech sector, as measured by Merrill Lynch's Biotech HOLDR
(BBH), has surged, responding to rate cuts from the Fed and in
sympathy with the broader markets.  In turn, PDLI has trended
ever higher, helped by bullish news from sector peers such as
AMGN, DNA and GILD.  Last Tuesday, the company reported results
for the first quarter, and the result was a blowout, with
earnings per share doubling Street estimates.  With that, Credit
Swisse First Boston analyst Mierav Chovav raised her price target
on the stock , from $70 to $80.  The company commented that the
better-than-expected results were due to revenue growth outpacing
research and development costs.  Having taken out resistance from
the 50 and 100-dma (now at $51.37 and $57.42 respectively), the
last major moving average left to stand is the 200-dma, sitting
just overhead at $78.23.  If continued buying pressure takes PDLI
above $75, this could allow conservative traders to jump in.
Just be aware that on the road to the 200-dma, the stock may
encounter resistance at $76.50.  For higher risk players, entries
on pullbacks may be forthcoming if PDLI bounces off support at
$74, $72 and our closing stop price of $70.

BUY CALL JUN-70 PQI-FN OI=2609 at $ 9.80 SL=7.00
BUY CALL JUN-75*RPV-FO OI= 350 at $ 7.00 SL=5.00
BUY CALL JUN-80 RPV-FP OI= 515 at $ 4.20 SL=2.75
BUY CALL JUL-75 RPV-GO OI=   0 at $10.60 SL=7.75  Wait for OI!!
BUY CALL JUL-80 RPV-GP OI=   0 at $ 8.40 SL=6.00  Wait for OI!!

SELL PUT JUN-65 PQI-RM OI= 129 at $ 2.30 SL=4.00
(See risks of selling puts in play legend)

Average Daily Volume = 1.66 mln
http://www.premierinvestor.com/oi/profile.asp?ticker=PDLI


************
NEW PUT PLAY
************

No new puts tonight.


*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

ADBE - call play
Adjust from $41 up to $42

BA   - call play
Adjust from $66 up to $67

CAT  - call play
Adjust from $53.75 up to $54

EBAY - call play
Adjust from $59.50 up to $61

GE   - call play
Adjust from $51 up to $52

HAL  - call play
Adjust from $46 up to $47

QLGC - call play
Adjust from $49 up to $55

VIGN - call play
Adjust from $9 up to $10

VRTS - call play
Adjust from $70 up to $74


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

GDW $61.44 -1.29 (-1.29) GDW has given us a good run during its
tenure as a call play here, as the stock reached a high of $64.75
last week before dropping back.  However, today's rally looks like
it may start a new trend of technology buying, as the Nasdaq
captured the spotlight from such sectors as defensive stocks and
some niche financials like savings and loans.  At this point, we
feel it is appropriate to drop GDW as a call play.

MO $50.26 -2.11 (-2.11) Unfortunately, Dow Jones newswire
released news this morning pertaining to the Kraft IPO which
was not received well by the market.  According to the report,
Philip Morris may have run afoul of some securities laws
regarding IPO issuance.  Specifically, an IPO pre market report
may have been incorrectly released.  This news cast a pall on the
shares, which had been rallying due to strength in the tobacco
sector, as well as the anticipation of a cash windfall from the
upcoming IPO.  While the details of their plans are no longer
clear, and the IPO may still be released in June, the stock has
clearly lost momentum, and may remain under water until this
issue is cleared.  In addition, capital flowed out of defensive
issues during Monday's session and into more aggressive tech
names, which pressured MO.


************
DROPPED PUTS
************

CIEN $60.79 +3.44 (+3.44) A bullish day for all things Tech
helped shares of fiber optic equipment maker Ciena to surge,
gaining 6 percent to begin the trading week.  Large cap Tech
stocks were in demand today, as traders eagerly bid up the
four-letter stocks.  While volume on today's rally was below
average, and CIEN is still inside its neutral wedge formation,
the close above our stop price of $60 suggests that this may be a
good time to step aside.  With that we are closing out this play.


**************
TRADERS CORNER
**************

But It Worked Out On Paper
By David Popper

I have read plenty of books on trading.  I am familiar with most
technical indicators. If I had to take a test, I could easily
describe each indicator, oscillator, chart pattern, and moving
average and probably get an A+.  Unfortunately, all of my head
knowledge does not always translate into good performance. True,
I made 100% in 1999, but that was riding a bike downhill. Many
people did much better. Last year, I lost 20%.  Many people did
much worse, but others recognized trouble and made a fortune on
the short side. I know that my execution is sometimes poor. This
is why I do not get into situations that I do not handle well.
In fact the longer that I play this game, the more I realize that
for me, trading is not just about charts, but it also consists
of recognizing market sentiment, sector sentiment, and sentiment
regarding the particular stock.  When motivating factors exist,
either positive or negative, I recognize that the stock will
probably move on a short term basis in the direction of the
motivating factor in spite of the chart.  For example, Johnson &
Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) announced a stock split.  There was also
positive news about some of its drugs. It was identified by one
brokerage house as "the single best investment idea" (at least
for this week) and sure enough J&J is on the move.  It will
fluctuate each day but it is moving up.  It is probably a safe
bet until the split in mid June. Yes, the chart is bullish,
however, it is merely confirming all of the news.  Some people
claim that the chart incorporated all of these possibilities
already.  They would claim that because the 50 day moving average
crossed the 200 day moving average on strong volume, that it was
obvious that something positive was happening.  They would claim
that an entrance based on the chart pattern alone would have
caused an even earlier entry into the stock thus yielding better
results. They may be right, if they happened to catch a view of
the J&J chart before the news alerted them.  There have been many
failed breakouts lately, however, so for me a good chart is only
a part of the equation.

So how do I use charts?  Well sometimes when a pattern is clear,
I play it.  Usually, when I notice motivating factors affecting
a particular stock, I will then check the stock to decide how
aggressively I should play it.  For example if great news comes
out on a stock when it is in a downtrend, I may not play the
stock or I may choose a lesser position. Likewise if the stock
appears extended on the upside. If, on the other hand, the chart
looks positive and not extended, then I will be more aggressive.
In other words, the chart tells me whether this will be a shorter
term or longer term play and how large a position I should
consider. Because I am using a chart only to get a general idea
of where a stock falls on its cycle, I am only interested in
longer term indicators such as long term moving averages (50
day and 200 day) and long term trend lines.  The long term
trend line analysis can in itself cause quite a stir.  For
example, William O'Neil of the Investor's Business Daily wrote
an open letter to all investors last week proclaiming that the
bear market is over.  Mr. O'Neil was using a 12 month chart in
reaching his conclusions.  Damon Vickers, a popular radio talk
show host, proclaims that we are still in a long term bear
market.  Who is right?  They may both be right.  On a short
term basis, we may be in a bull market.  The 12 month charts
testify to this.  Additionally there are many sentiment factors
that may help us such as interest rate cuts and tax cuts.
Further, since earnings have been so poor, soon there will be
easy year to year comparisons, which will probably generate
enthusiasm for "better" earnings.

Mr. Vickers, however, looks at 5 and 10 year charts and those
charts testify to the fact that the long term uptrend has been
violated. In other words, on a long term basis, the market takes
on a completely different picture and appears dangerous. Further,
he argues that most stocks are still under their 200 day moving
average and by his definition those stocks are in a bear market.

From my perspective, if you ignore those beautiful short term
charts, you will forgo great profits.  You have to respect the
longer term chart, however, and not give your stock too much
leeway, because no one can know for sure if the long term trend
will recover or whether it will accelerate out of control. In
spite of all the good feeling out there, it wouldn't take much
to rekindle the long term downtrend. One simple way to trade in
these cross currents is to trade stocks that have motivating
factors such as a stock split, earnings run, presentation at a
conference and trade that stock if the short term chart is also
positive.  If the motivating factor ends on a particular day, such
as a stock split, I use split date or ending day as my sell signal.
This isn't technical and it is not complicated, but it
usually works in real life for me. I am not out to be the best
technician, I just want to be profitable most of the time. I
don't want a system that just works for me on paper.





**********************
PLAY OF THE DAY - CALL
**********************

ADBE - Adobe Systems $45.49 +2.98 (+2.98 this week)

A long-time leader in desktop publishing software, ADBE
provides graphic design, publishing, and imaging software
for Web and print production.  Offering a line of application
software products for creating, distributing, and managing
information of all types, the company generates nearly 75% of
sales through publishing software products such as Photoshop,
Illustrator, and PageMaker.  Its Acrobat Reader, which uses
portable document format (PDF) is popping up all over the
Internet, as businesses shift from print to digital
communications.  In addition, ADBE licenses its industry
standard technologies to major hardware manufacturers,
software developers, and service providers, as well as
offering integrated software solutions to businesses of all
sizes.

Most Recent Write-Up

Software stocks consolidated their gains on Friday as traders
finished squaring their positions ahead of the weekend.  The
Software index (GSO.X) is facing resistance at $236, but if the
bulls are still in control next week, the move through this
level could come quickly.  ADBE actually held up rather well,
consolidating for much of the day just above the $42 level (the
site of the 30-dma), and never once dipped as low as the $41
support level.  As would be expected ahead of the weekend,
volume was downright anemic, running only 40% of the ADV.
Buyers will have to take another run at the $44 resistance
level, but if they are able to break through, it will provide
an attractive opportunity for conservative traders to initiate
new positions.  Until then, continue to use intraday dips above
our $41 stop to gain entry into the play.  ADBE announces
earnings on June 14th, but that event is far enough away that
it is unlikely to have an effect in the near term.  For now,
ADBE will be subject to the whims of the broader technology
market and the GSO.X specifically.  With the daily Stochastics
oscillator in ascent mode, increasing volume and a positive
NASDAQ could be all ADBE needs to continue its climb.

Comments

Since bouncing from the $40 level late last week, shares of
Adobe have been working steadily higher.  The stock appears
poised to make its way to the $50 level in the near-term,
where traders may look to book gains.  In the meantime, new
entries can be found on light volume pullbacks to the $44
level, or lower near $42.  Momentum traders might look for
a high volume breakout above the $46 level.

BUY CALL JUN-40 AEQ-FH OI= 681 at $6.80 SL=5.00
BUY CALL JUN-45*AEQ-FI OI=1260 at $3.50 SL=1.75
BUY CALL JUN-50 AEQ-FJ OI=1233 at $1.50 SL=0.75
BUY CALL JUL-45 AEQ-GI OI=1665 at $5.50 SL=3.50
BUY CALL JUL-50 AEQ-GJ OI=1520 at $3.30 SL=1.75

SELL PUT JUN-45 AEQ-RI OI= 331 at $2.85 SL=4.50
(See risks of selling puts in play legend)

Average Daily Volume = 5.41 mln
http://www.premierinvestor.com/oi/profile.asp?ticker=ADBE





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