Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 06/11/2001

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 06-11-2001
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.                        1 of 1
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        06-11-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10922.09 - 54.91 10975.44 10871.34  856 mln   1238/1811 
NASDAQ   2170.78 - 44.32  2205.41  2150.75 1.39 bln   1462/2322
S&P 100   646.59 -  5.33   651.92   543.42   totals   2700/4133
S&P 500  1254.39 - 10.57  1264.96  1249.23           39.5%/60.5%
RUS 2000  506.93 -  4.71   511.64   505.71
DJ TRANS 2828.94 - 53.15  2882.43  2826.41
VIX        22.74 +  1.33    23.78    22.56
Put/Call Ratio      0.63

Moot Monday

Continued worriers over the economy and corporate profits kept
the bulls at bay Monday.  In fact, the conviction amongst the
bears was less than inspiring noting the lackluster volume.

Monday's session marked the third lightest trading day of the
year on the Nasdaq market.  Trading totaled roughly 1.4
billion shares on the Nasdaq market, while only 856 million
shares exchanged on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).  The
50-day average volume figures for the Nasdaq and NYSE are 1.8
and 1.09 billion, respectively.

The light volume we're observing across the broader market is
very indicative of this time of year.  And it makes forming a
thesis or bias all the more difficult because the ebbs and flows
of the market lack conviction.  Absent the volume and
conviction, we can refer to price action in the major market
averages in an attempt to find profitable trades while we wait
(Hold our collective breath) for more guidance on the
corporate and economic fronts.

Last week, we made several observations concerning the bearish
head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern in the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX).
Over the weekend, Jeff Bailey and I spent some time discussing
the H&S pattern in the COMPX.  Jeff is less convinced about the
pattern due to the lack of volume near the right shoulder and
due to the height of the right shoulder.  While I argued that
the pattern is ascending, hence the higher level of the right

Either way, Jeff and I both agree that 2100 is an important level
for the COMPX to hold.  That level is significant because it
marks the 61.8 percent retracement of the COMPX's advance in
early April and it is also the current site of H&S' ascending
neckline.  In addition, 2100 is a relatively significant level
of demand on the point & figure charts.

If the COMPX does break below that level, the H&S pattern we've
been addressing may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which
would leave the COMPX with a bearish price objective in the
low 1800s.  However, as the chart above illustrates, dip buyers
have shown up around the 2100 level on a regular basis in the
recent past.  So traders predisposed to buying dips might look
to get long relatively strong Nasdaq stocks if the COMPX
approaches 2100, but doesn't breakdown below that level.
Conversely, a break and subsequent settlement below 2100 may
embolden the shorts, who are likely to pressure tech shares, so
try to keep those stops tight if you buy any further dip.  As
far as resistance for the COMPX, short-term traders might
focus on the 2200 level, while those with a longer view should
keep focused on 2250.

Interestingly, the broader market, as measured by the S&P 500
(SPX.X) also exhibits an eerily similar head-and-shoulders
(H&S) pattern.  As I've illustrated on the chart below, the
S&P has traced an ascending H&S, although I concede it is an
imperfect pattern.  Nonetheless, the S&P did bounce right off
its ascending neckline this afternoon, which does give some
credence to the pattern.  Currently, that neckline lies at
roughly 1250.  Below that level, the S&P doesn't have much
meaningful support until the 1225 level, which is reinforced
by the index's 38.2 percent retracement level.  Insofar as
resistance concerns the S&P, I see congestion in the near-term
at the 1270 level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) has a somewhat similar
ascending price pattern compared to the S&P and COMPX, but I
think the INDU traded high enough last week to reject any
suggestion of a head-and-shoulders.  On the daily chart below,
it looks like the Dow might settle into a trading range between
support at 10,800 and resistance at the almighty 11,000 level.
However, a breakdown in the Dow below 10,800, in my mind, would
be most disconcerting because I don't see any REAL significant
support until roughly 10,500.

Along with the price action in the big three (COMPX, S&P and Dow)
I think it makes sense to monitor the CBOE Market Volatility
Index (VIX.X) as we work through the summer months.  The current
low level of the VIX is indicative of the lack of commitment
in the market - the VIX traced a new yearly low last week at
21.11.  To review, the VIX measures the level of fear in the
market.  The less fear in the market, the lower the level of the

In 1999, the VIX bottomed on the week ended July 11th, at the
17.70 level, which coincided with a significant relative high
in the COMPX.  In 2000, the VIX bottomed on the week ended
August 27th, at the 18.13 level, which, of course, coincided
with the COMPX's post-Labor Day slide.  Keep these historical
lows in mind if the VIX continues to work lower, as it could
spell trouble for the COMPX if the last two year's of history

Perhaps the weakness in the Nasdaq Monday can be mostly blamed
on the carryover of Juniper Network's (NASDAQ:JNPR) big warning
last Friday.  In fact, the company was the target of many
downgrades Monday warning, which adversely impacted those tech
stocks levered to the telecom industry.  In addition to the
Juniper-related weakness, two warnings before the bell Monday
morning impacted trading.  DuPont Photomasks (NASDAQ:DPMI) and
Powerwave Technologies (NASDAQ:PWAV) both issued warnings.

After the bell Monday, there weren't any warnings as big as
Juniper's last week.  But the warnings are certain to color
trading in several sectors Tuesday.

Affymetrix (NASDAQ:AFFX), which provides biotechnology research
products and services, warned of a revenue short-fall Monday
evening.  The broader biotech sector, as measured by the
Biotechnology Sector Index (BTK.X), has been a source of
strength recently and Affymetrix's warning is likely to
pressure shares within this space.

Another recent "hot" sector of the market has been alternative
energy stocks.  But, after the bell Monday, General Motors
(NYSE:GM) pre-announced that it was going to make two
separate announcements in the coming days concerning fuel
cell technology.  It wasn't indicated is the announcements
by General Motors were going to be good or bad, but judging
by the price action in shares of FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL)
in the after hours session, the news isn't good.  Shares of
FuelCell lost about $7 in the after hours session before
being halted.

I'd like to thank everyone who attended my online seminar
over the weekend and would encourage those who haven't already
to check out our line-up this week.  Our all-star analyst,
and my good friend, Jeff Bailey, is scheduled to present
an online seminar on Point & Figure Charts Tuesday evening.  In
addition, Jim Brown with be presenting on Basic Options
Strategies and an excellent technician, Jon Farnlof, will be
presenting a seminar on how to read Candlestick Charts.  Check
out the schedule below and simply follow the link provided to
sign up.

Eric Utley

June Online Seminar Calendar

You can take the following seminars without leaving the comfort
of your home or office. They are interactive and allow you to
question the presenter during the presentation.

You do not need any special software to take the seminar but you
must have a 56K Internet connection or faster for best results
and a separate phone for the audio portion.

If you are interested in these seminars please click here for
more information.


Tue Jun-12 Starting with Point & Figure Charts - Jeff Bailey
Wed Jun-13 Ask the Analyst - Eric Utley
Wed Jun-13 Basic Option Strategies - Jim Brown
Thr Jun-14 Using Volatility to Pick Stocks - John Seckinger
Thr Jun-14 Basic Candlesticks - Jon Farnlof
Sun Jun-17 7 Steps to Play Picking - Eric Utley
Mon Jun-18 Zero Cost Leaps - Mark Wnetrzak, Ray Cummins
Tue Jun-19 Profiting From Failed Technical Patterns - John Seckinger
Wed Jun-20 Chart Patterns, Flags, Pennants, Wedges - Derek Baltimore
Wed Jun-20 Entry Point, Exit Point - Jim Brown
Thr Jun-21 Day-Trading for People WIth Day Jobs - Jon Farnlof
Sun Jun-24 Determining Support and Resistance - Derek Baltimore
Sun Jun-24 Ask The Analyst - Eric Utley
Tue Jun-26 Assessing Risk with Point & Figure - Jeff Bailey
Tue Jun-26 Charting, Stage Analysis - Mark Wnetrzak, Ray Cummins
Wed Jun-27 Big Cap Strategies - Jim Brown
Wed Jun-27 Conservative CC/NP - Mark Wnetrzak, Ray Cummins

Click here for a detailed explanation of each:



MSFT - Microsoft Corp $72.12 -1.07 (-1.07 this week)

Microsoft is the #1 software company in the world.  They
develop, manufacture, license, and support a broad range of
software products including Windows operating systems, server
applications, the popular MS Office suite, and a Web Browser.
CEO and co-founder, Bill Gates still owns 15% of Microsoft.

Following a consistent pattern of lower-highs, the ascending
wedge formation compressed and shares of MSFT "popped the lid
off" its $72 resistance. The NASDAQ's bolt through 2200 was also
an obvious catalyst that advanced MSFT upward to $73.75 last
week amid the notable return in trading volume.  Today's mild
pullback and soundness at the $71.60 support offers us the
opportunity to begin coverage in preparation for another
upswing.  Until we see a visible breakout through $74, it may be
to your advantage to target shoot for an entry at the lower end
of the Bollinger Band, near $71.  The technical indicator
suggests MSFT may be overbought as it approaches $74.  In other
words, playing the current spread in a volatile environment
could be profitable for those with the risk portfolio and
interest for quick in-and-out plays.  Otherwise, it'll be a game
of wait-and-see before committing your capital to MSFT.  We have
a bullish expectation that the NASDAQ may rally off its support
mid-week; and hence, the #1 software maker would be first in
line to lead the tech gains.  Wait for the market confirmation
and look for additional guidance from Goldman Sach's Software
Index (GSO.X).  Convincing moves through the 240 resistance
would be awesome collaboration.  And from a totally different
viewpoint, there's the true-blue bulls who won't balk at taking
positions down near May's $67 break point, perhaps even
anticipating an earnings run.  The company is confirmed to
report its 3Q earnings on July 19th, after the market.  We have
a protective stop set at the above-mentioned $67 and will drop
coverage if MSFT fails to close above this level.

BUY CALL JUL-65 MSQ-GM OI=20504 at $8.90 SL=6.25
BUY CALL JUL-70*MSQ-GN OI=47460 at $5.30 SL=3.25
BUY CALL JUL-75 MSQ-GO OI=40644 at $2.65 SL=1.25
BUY CALL JUL-80 MSQ-GP OI=41508 at $1.15 SL=0.00

Average Daily Volume = 43.9 mln


EBAY - eBay, Inc. $62.79 -0.76 (-0.76 this week)

After developing a Web-based community in which buyers and
sellers are brought together in an efficient format, EBAY has
emerged as the dominant online auction site.  The eBay dynamic
pricing format permits sellers to list items for sale, buyers to
bid on items of interest and all eBay users to browse through
listed items.  Items listed on eBay include collectibles,
automobiles, art objects, jewelry, consumer electronics and a
host of practical and miscellaneous items.  Although based in
the United States, through its subsidiaries, EBAY also operates
trading platforms in Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia,
Japan, Canada, France, Austria, Italy and South Korea.

There's no arguing with the fact that eBay has become the
dominant online auction site and that the EBAY has emerged as
an anomaly in the world of Internet stocks -- they've become
profitable, and it looks like they will stay that way.
Investors have been rewarding the stock for this performance
lately and the price has traced a nice uptrend for the past 2
months.  So why is it on the put list, you ask?  Well, don't
look now, but in the past 3 weeks, EBAY has traced a nice double
top near the $66 level.  A quick look at a 2-year chart reveals
that this is a pretty formidable resistance level.  With the
CBOE Internet index (INX.X) posting a Head & Shoulders top and
the overall Technology sector being pressured by the bears, it
doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that in the near term,
EBAY has a lot more downside risk than upside potential.  The
bearish divergence on the daily Stochastics oscillator is just
icing on the cake, further stacking the deck in favor of the
bears.  The only obstacle in our way is the 2-month ascending
trendline, currently resting at $62.  Conservative players will
target new entries on a drop through that level, ideally with
increasing volume and further weakness on the INX index.
Aggressive traders can target shoot new entries near the $64
or $65 intraday resistance levels or our stop which rests at
$66.  Our first downside target is the $58 level, followed
by $55.

BUY PUT JUL-65 QXB-SM OI= 897 at $6.80 SL=4.75
BUY PUT JUL-60*QXB-SL OI=2553 at $4.50 SL=2.75
BUY PUT JUL-55 QXB-SK OI=2699 at $2.80 SL=1.50

Average Daily Volume = 5.93 mln


NETE - put
Adjust from $44 down to $40

NEWP - put
Adjust from $35 down to $34

RIMM - put
Adjust from $37 down to $35

TLAB - put
Adjust from $34 down to $32


IMCL $49.50 -3.80 (-3.80) As feared, Biotechs continued to
deteriorate on Monday and IMCL never stood a chance as traders
lined up to the sell side.  After the BTK index fell through the
$640 level on Friday, the odds were stacked against the bulls
and the result can be seen in IMCL's chart, as it opened today
just above our $53 stop and promptly fell through it on its way
to posting a 7% loss on heavy volume.  We got to ride IMCL for a
nice gain over the past couple weeks and we're happy to move on
to the next winning play.

PDLI $80.15 -4.54 (-4.54) It's hard to believe that PDLI posted
a 9% gain just a week ago.  What a difference a week makes.  The
$90.50 resistance level turned out to be too much of an obstacle
for the bulls to scale, and simple profit taking gave way to a
more serious correction today.  Our $84 stop got taken out at
the open, as PDLI continued to be pressured by weakness in the
Biotechnology sector.  Fortunately, we began coverage of the
stock just before last week's 2-day 15% surge, and those that
came along with us managed to book an impressive gain.  With the
Biotechs in retreat, it is time to find the next high-odds play.

QCOM $59.78 -1.46 (-1.46) Sometimes it seems there is no
justice.  Just when QCOM looked like it was ready to run, JNPR
warned and tanked the fledgling Technology rally.  QCOM has done
nothing but move down since we began our coverage, and with
performance like that, it was no great surprise this morning to
see the stock slice right through our $60 stop without even
slowing.  Although we did get a decent bounce in the afternoon,
the fact that buyers couldn't hold the $60 level is a good sign
that we don't want to chase this play for an entry.


EPG $59.20 +2.20 (+2.20) A bullish day for the energy stocks
killed any hopes of EPG setting another relative low.  Rallying
oil futures incited by Iraq's halt on oil imports and reported
production problems related to the effects of Tropical Storm
Allison in Texas were the culprits.  A strong wave of buyers set
EPG's share price on fire, fueling a fast run through $58 and
$59.  Stabilization above our $59 stop occurred throughout the
afternoon.  The likelihood that EPG will hold the gains going
into tomorrow coupled with the fractional violation of our
closing stop compels us to drop coverage tonight.


Calendar Spreads
By Robert Ogilvie

Last weekend, I wrote about Diagonal Spreads as an alternative
to covered calls. Many of you must be thinking I am completely
crazy writing about buying calls in the current market.  All
the market psychology gauges are getting close to previously
over bought levels (VIX, VXN, and Investor Sentiment Polls) and
earnings warning season is approaching.  I often write about
contrarian indicators and live by "when the VIX is low it's time
to go."  But the optimist sees that volatility levels are low
which translates into lower premiums for many securities.
Being carefully selective, I am looking for some stocks with
strong fundamentals that are either uptrending or at lower
levels just basing.  For the purpose of this article, I am
going to discuss debit call calendar spreads.  A calendar
spread is defined as an option strategy that generally involves
the purchase of a farther-term option (call or put) and the
writing of an equal number of nearer-term options of the same
type and strike price.

While fishing in Florida, where there are constant isolated
storms throughout the summer, it is necessary to have a back up
plan if a storm does kick up.  The sees get rough and the boat's
bilge fills up with water.  I have been out on the Gulf of Mexico
and had storm clouds surrounding the boat.  Sometimes it rains
and sometimes it stays clear.  If it does rain, the boat has a
bilge pump that pumps the water out so we don't sink.  The bigger
the boat, the better it can handle the rough water.  This is true
with longer-term options.  The other common trait is the bigger
the boat (longer-term option) the more it costs.  The reason I
sell the calls is the same reason bilge pumps are installed in
boats; to bail us out a little when times get stormy.

Assuming I have found a few candidates that meet my parameters,
I begin shopping around for the best value on the longer term
options (3 - 9 months until expiration) or the LEAPS.  I am
looking at the amount of premium I am buying as well as the
delta and gamma figures.  Open interest is important to a point,
especially if I am doing a lot of contracts.  I need liquidity
without getting my head chopped off when I go to sell.  For
instance, the underlying is priced at 47.5. The Jan 2002 40
Calls trade at 11.40 per contract with a delta of 75. The Jan
2002 45 Calls trade at 8.30 with a delta of 67. The 40's have
7.5 of intrinsic value (in the money) and 3.90 of premium.  The
45's have 2.5 of intrinsic value and 5.8 of premium. In my
experience, the deltas are close enough to be a non-issue
unless doing a large number of contracts for a short-term
trade.  The choice is yours.  I prefer buying less premium in
these market conditions.  If the security goes down, the higher
delta causes the premium to go down faster than on the lower
delta option.  In addition, there is the loss of intrinsic
value.  The more you have the more you can lose.

For this example, let's buy the Jan 2002 45 call.  O.K., I have
my long position.  Now I wait.  Doesn't that sound stupid?  A
smart investor waits until there is some indication that the
security may rise in price.  But we are in a peculiar market
where it may go up or down.  Assume I think this is a good time
to buy.  However, just in case I am wrong, I want to sell the
near term calls that are out of the money.  If there is any
premium in the June strike prices; I may try to lock in a
little premium for a week.  Most likely, I will sell the July
calls.  The June 50's are only bidding $0.25 per contract.  I
might do this.  The reason I may not is because the July calls
may lose an equal amount of premium.  If I sell the June and
July calls, there are two commissions.  As a broker, one might
think I would push the June and July's.  But the best thing may
be to wait to sell the calls.  If the stock starts to move up,
I'll wait until it becomes extended to sell the out of the
money calls.  I may choose to sell the long calls.  But I have
entered this for a longer uptrend and will probably hold the
leaps and use the premium on the short calls to offset any
market volatility.  If the stock starts to drop after I've
bought the calls, I will sell the out of the money calls.
There is one problem with lower volatility.  This translates
into less premium on the out of money calls.

The July 50 calls are trading for $1.85/contract while the July
55 calls are bidding $0.60/contract.  Which call do I sell? I
look for the next resistance level to help decide.  I want to
sell the next strike price above the resistance.  For instance,
if the resistance is at 52, I will sell the 55's.  If the
resistance is at 48.5, I will sell the 50's.  Lower priced and
recently split securities allow more flexibility because of the
$2.5 strike price increments.   But these stocks are low priced
because the all-knowing market has deemed them low price.  The
argument could go either way.  The lower priced stocks have
less to fall and/or might not be over inflated.

This above example is actually a diagonal (combination & price)
spread.  If I wanted a true calendar spread I would buy the Jan
2002 50's and sell the June 50's.  The long position's premium
is low enough, but the delta is lower and I am paying all
premium.  I would rather have my mutated example.  The most
important ingredient is to buy the option strike that makes the
most sense to you and your analysis.  If you buy the long-term
option because of technical analysis, then sell it based on
technical analysis.  The reason to buy long-term options is
based on leverage.  If the premium paid is near the cash
required to buy the underlying security, maybe you should buy
the stock.  I usually sell the long position if it drops below
its support or if it becomes overbought or if the stock price
breaks through the short option's strike price.

Here is another example to drive it home.  XYZA is trading at
$17.  It has support at $15 and resistance at $18 and has been
trading in a range for months.  It is also a leader in its
sector and may be showing signs of future strength.  The Jan
2002 17.5 calls cost 3.60/contract while the Jan 2003 17.5
calls cost 5.90/contract.  I buy the 2003's and sell the June
17.5 calls for $0.35/contract.  The initial return isn't bad.
Then next week I can decide whether to sell the July 17.5 or
20 strike price.

As with all strategies, there are various actions that may be
done that I my not have considered.  If you have any
questions, please contact me.  If there are strategies or
topics that you feel need coverage, please let me know.

Robert John Ogilvie

Neither Cutter & Company, Inc. nor Robert J. Ogilvie makes any
representation as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness
of any charts, formulas, and /or research opinions presented
herein. This article is intended solely for educational
purposes. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Cutter and Company
is a Member of the NASD, MSRB, and SIPC. Please read the
OptionInvestor.com's Disclaimer:


BRCD - Brocade Communications $46.07 +0.98 (+0.98 this week)

Brocade Communications is a provider of Fibre Channel switching
solutions for Storage Area Networks (SANs), which apply the
benefits of a networked approach to the connection of computer
storage systems and servers.  The company's family of SilkWorm
switches enables companies to cost-effectively manage growth in
their storage capacity requirements and improve the performance
between their servers and storage systems.  This provides the
ability of increasing the size and scope of a company's SAN,
while allowing them to operate data-intensive applications,
such as data backup and restore, and disaster recovery on the

Most Recent Write-Up

Despite the JNPR-induced weakness on Friday, BRCD had a pretty
decent week, tacking on a respectable 16% gain.  While volume is
still waffling below the ADV, it is encouraging to see higher
volume on the rally days than on those days where the stock is
giving back a little ground.  Since Memorial day, BRCD has
established a new, if tenuous uptrend line, which currently
rests just above our $42 stop.  Investors desperately want to
believe that the worst is behind for Storage stocks (as well as
the overall Technology sector) and ignored a good bit of bad
news sprinkled throughout the week (mainly in the Semiconductor
sector), to push our play as high as the $48 resistance level
before pulling back on Friday.  With the price currently above
the 30-dma ($44.00) and the 10-dma ($41.98), both of which have
offered support in the past few days, BRCD looks like it is
headed higher.  Even the daily Stochastics is cooperating,
halfway between its extremes, but still pointing towards the
sky.  Aggressive entries still await on a bounce from the
ascending trendline, or possibly from intraday support at $44.
More conservative traders will let BRCD prove itself by surging
through the $48 level before taking the plunge.  Either way,
keep a sharp eye out for profit taking as our play approaches
the $51-52 level, and then again near $54.


Shares of Brocade staged an incredible rebound Monday, off of
our stop at the $41 level.  The stock finished the day strongly
and its momentum may carry over into Tuesday's session.  Look
for a breakout above $48 resistance or a pullback into the
$44 area for entry points.

BUY CALL JUL-45*UBF-GI OI=11908 at $6.40 SL=4.50
BUY CALL JUL-50 UBF-GJ OI= 2868 at $4.10 SL=2.50
BUY CALL JUL-55 UBZ-GK OI= 4886 at $2.60 SL=1.25
BUY CALL OCT-50 UBF-JJ OI= 1523 at $8.20 SL=5.75
BUY CALL OCT-55 UBZ-JK OI=  213 at $6.70 SL=4.50

Average Daily Volume = 14.4 mln


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