Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 07/02/2001

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 07-02-2001
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.                        1 of 1
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
        07-02-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10593.75 + 91.32 10638.87 10467.38 1.11 bln   1600/1471 
NASDAQ   2148.72 - 11.82  2181.05  2140.65 1.51 bln   1555/2234
S&P 100   639.96 +  7.94   642.08   632.02   totals   3155/3705
S&P 500  1236.72 + 12.34  1239.78  1224.03           46.0%/54.0%
RUS 2000  498.39 - 14.25   513.28   498.25
DJ TRANS 2806.50 - 27.06  2836.63  2802.80
VIX        20.29 -  1.34    21.58    20.26
Put/Call Ratio      0.60

Economy over Earnings

Is this a new dynamic?  Positive economic news trumps negative
corporate earnings news?

About two weeks ago, I wrote about the market's rally off of
positive data from the Conference Board, specifically its
leading economic indicators.  A similar situation developed
Monday morning, when the National Association of Purchasing
Managers released its index of manufacturing.  The index rose to
44.7 during the month of June, from its May reading of 42.1.
Estimates had the June reading pegged at 42.9, so market
participants were pleasantly surprised this morning with the
better-than-expected number.  Still, a reading below 50 suggests
that manufacturing is in recession - the index has been below 50
for 11 straight months ended June.

Although manufacturing remains in somewhat of a slump, the
recent rebound in the NAPM's index suggests that the worst may
be over and better times lie ahead.  In addition, the Commerce
Department reported that consumer spending rose by 0.5 percent
during April and May, which like the NAPM number, bested
estimates.  Fortunately, the dual dose of positive economic data
overshadowed another major earnings warning.

Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (NYSE:MMM) guided second-quarter
earnings estimates lower Monday morning, blaming its shortfall
on weakness in the U.S. economy, overseas economies and the
strength of the U.S. dollar.  But, like many other companies
that have warned recently, shares of 3M rallied throughout the
day Monday, following its gap lower.  In fact, the stock staged
an $8 rebound from its opening lows and actually finished over $3
higher on the day.

After the bell, further warnings surfaced in both the old and
new economy.  DuPont (NYSE:DD) issued a warning predicated upon
the same issues as 3M had reported: weak domestic and foreign
economies and the strong dollar.  Although under illiquid
conditions, shares were off by about $1 in the after hours

The blow-up of the day belongs to Internet Security Systems
(NASDAQ:ISSX), who issued a horrific earnings warning judging
by the market's reaction in after hours trading.  The company
reported that it would sustain a loss of 2 cents per share from
operations during its current quarter, while previous estimates
had called for a profit of 15 cents.  Shares of Internet
Security shed about $17 in the after hours session, and its
warning rippled across to its competitors, including Check
Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) and Verisign (NASDAQ:VRSN).

Additionally and unfortunately, Rational Software (NASDAQ:RATL)
issued a warning, although it was not nearly as negative.  The
company reported that its earnings would fall to the low-end
of estimates and that revenues would fall short by about $10
million.  Shares of Rational slipped by about $3 in the after
hours session.

The slew of earnings warnings so far this week could keep the
resistance in place across the major market averages.
For its part, the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) is having difficulty
clearing the 2150 - 2180 range.  Recall the head-and-shoulders
pattern I had written about in early June, and it's clear why
the COMPX is having trouble clearing that range.  The neckline
of that pattern had served as meaningful support prior to the
COMPX's breakdown, and now that neckline becomes resistance.

Should the COMPX decidedly advance above its current resistance
range, it could retest its staunch resistance around the 2250
area.  Traders can use any advance above the COMPX's intraday
high around 2180 to confirm a rally attempt, as that level has
served as very short-term resistance last Friday and again
Monday.  In terms of support, the COMPX has psychological help
at the 2100 level, with technical support lower near 2060.

The S&P 500 (SPX.X) is having trouble advancing above the 1240
level as evidenced by Monday's three failed attempts to clear
that area.  In fact, the S&P has attempted to clear 1240 on
four separate occasions over the past three weeks, but each time
it has failed.  Of course, a breakout above 1240 would certainly
be a positive development for the broader market and may help
the COMPX clear is resistance.

On the downside, the S&P continues to gyrate around the 1225
level, which was its intraday low Monday and may continue to
serve as support over the short-term.  Below that level,
however, the S&P has meaningful technical support at the
1210 level, which is reinforced by the equally significant
1200 level.  We'll want to keep a close watch on the S&P's
support levels this week.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) is having
problems hurdling resistance around the 10,650 level.  Of
course above that level lies the 10,700 level.  But, the
Dow continues to find support around the 10,500 level, where
buyers continue to step in.

As we turn to future, short-term price action, I'd like to opine
that Monday's light volume pullback in the Nasdaq is not out of
the ordinary in light of its substantial run over the last two
weeks.  In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see the COMPX
fall further this week to consolidate its recent gains, which
wouldn't be all that disconcerting, at least from where I sit.

What we don't want to see is the major market averages drift
lower and subsequently break below key support levels, such as
the S&P 500 and its support at the 1200 - 1210 range.  If
earnings warnings start to impact the broader market in a
negative way, and support levels are taken out, we may witness
a retest of relative lows, or even see a further pullback across
the broader market averages.  But earnings warnings haven't had
much of an impact on price action recently, so that variable
remains somewhat of a mystery.

While I desperately want to have conviction one way or the
other to better position my readers for profits, I must concede
that it's difficult to definitively say which way the market is
headed over the short-term.  That's because several of the
indicators I follow are telling conflicting stories.  On one
hand, the Nasdaq-100 is a few ticks away from a bull confirmed
signal on the bullish percent chart.  Should it be issued, I
think that metric would add credence to the COMPX retesting
the 2250 level in the short-term.  Furthermore, the economic
data recently released is showing signs of improvement, which
has in turn discounted the myriad earnings warnings across the
broader market.

On the other hand, there are warning signals being flashed.  I
personally received an inbox full of e-mails this morning
concerning the low level of the CBOE Market Volatility Index
(VIX.X).  For those who don't know, the VIX is a measure of fear
among market participants, hence the "fear gauge."  Typically,
the lower the level of the VIX, the lower the level of fear
among market participants.  And when viewed contrarily, a low
reading in the VIX suggests that market participants have grown
complacent and portends a correction in the broader market

The two-year chart of the VIX below depicts that it's approaching
historically low levels.  And if readers juxtapose a broader
market average, say the S&P 500, over each of the VIX's relative
lows over the last several years a disturbing pattern develops.
(Note the timing of each low.)

I'm not smart enough to know whether or not the complacency
displayed by the VIX is forecasting a correction in the broader
markets.  If history is any guide, however, that may very well
be the case.  But we must also remember that the VIX can
always go lower if the broader markets work higher in the

I think that the extreme reading of the VIX is a cause for
concern, but it shouldn't be the final answer.  Instead, I
think the prudent approach is to incorporate it into your
trading thesis.

Finally, the markets will close early Tuesday, at 1:00 p.m.
EST.  And I hope all of our readers have a happy and very
safe Fourth of July holiday Wednesday.

Questions are welcome: eutley@OptionInvestor.com

Eric Utley
Option Investor


Tech Sectors Test Resistance
By Jeffrey Canavan

The Nasdaq Composite tried to finish the day in positive
territory, but was held down by biotechnology stocks.

The Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) has been battling with the 200-
dma for the past three days, and lost the battle today.  The war
can still be won, since support looks strong at 570, oscillators
look oversold, and prices are above a rising 50-dma.  A close
above 625, and getting the bullish percent data off of bear alert
status would help to clear up the picture.  There are still some
bullish stocks in the group, but overall the sector is neutral.

Internet, software, networking, and semiconductors tried to put
in a good showing today, but faded into the close.  That could be
because they are pegged at the their May downtrends, and the
holiday-shortened week may lack the necessary volume to push
these sectors through resistance.  Muddying the picture even more
are short-term stohastics that are suggesting these sectors are a
little overbought, but longer-term MACDs and bullish percent data
are oversold.  A brief pullback before another attempt at the May
downtrends could be the scenario that plays out for these

The trend for energy stocks continues to be straight down, but
pharmaceutical stocks were able to put a temporary stop to their
skid, closing up 1.73%.  The financial sector looks overbought,
but continues to be the strongest sector, with insurance stocks
doing especially well.

*************************Sector Watch****************************

            Weekly   Daily      Overbought   Support  Resistance
            Trend    Trend      Oversold

DJIA        Bearish  Neutral    Oversold      10,400   10,800
NASD        Bearish  Neutral    Overbought     2,000    2,200
S&P 500     Bearish  Neutral    Neutral        1,200    1,250
Rus 2000    Neutral  Neutral    Oversold         480      500

Semis       Neutral  Neutral    Neutral          545      660
Biotech     Neutral  Neutral    Oversold         570      625
Internet    Neutral  Neutral    Neutral          160      186
Networking  Bearish  Bearish    Neutral          314      380
Software    Neutral  Neutral    Neutral          210      241
Banking     Bullish  Bullish    Overbought       640      670
Retail      Bearish  Bearish    Oversold         840      880
Drugs       Bearish  Bearish    Oversold         375      400

                          Percent Change
             Last 5 Days   Last 10 Days      Last 30 Days
DJIA            (1.0%)        (1.1%)           (6.6%)
NASD             4.8%          8.1%            (2.3%)
S&P 500          1.5%          2.3%            (4.3%)
Rus 2000         2.9%          1.6%            (1.6%)

Semis            5.6%          5.9%            (3.3%)
Biotech          3.4%          2.8%            (0.3%)
Internet         2.5%         10.5%           (13.4%)
Networking       5.5%          7.9%           (22.4%)
Software         6.1%         11.9%            (0.6%)
Banking          1.4%          4.1%             2.9%
Retail          (0.4%)        (0.8%)           (4.4%)
Drugs           (2.1%)        (4.6%)           (6.0%)



Questions on LEAPS Covered Calls - Part 1
by Mark Phillips

It was with amazement that I watched the results unfold last
Tuesday night.  Having penned the second of what I expected to
be a two or three part series of articles on Covered Calls on
LEAPS, I was hoping for a few emails that would encourage me to
continue covering the strategy on a periodic basis.  What I
received exceeded my wildest hopes, with more than 25 messages
cascading into my InBox by 8pm.  I would start to answer one
question and by the time I finished, there would be another 3-4
messages waiting to be read.

By the time I went to bed that night, it was clear that I would
need to start addressing the strategy on a regular basis just to
answer the flood of insightful and prescient questions.  Thank
you to all that wrote in, requesting more information and a
continuation of coverage on the AOL trade!  While I will begin
writing a column on the Covered Calls applied to LEAPS strategy
every Wednesday (actually Tuesday this week, due to the holiday)
from here on out (at least until there is no longer a demand
for it), I thought tonight I would start to share some of the
more popular questions.  Complete with answers, this will allow
all to benefit from the questions of the relative few.

So let's get to it, shall we?

Question: When you write a covered call on a leap is there any
requirement on which strike price you sell the call on vs. the
strike price of the leap you purchased?  It sounds like you
could buy an out of the money leap for cheap and sell the calls
closer to the money for a bigger premium. Of course if the price
of the stock stays the same or declines the leap would lose it's
value, but you could eventually sell enough covered calls to pay
for leap plus some.

Answer: This was actually a popular question, and that should
come as no surprise.  After the tech decline of the past year,
there are lots of investors that purchased LEAPS on fallen tech
darlings to profit from the eventual rebound.  Unfortunately,
the 'bottom' where these LEAPS were bought was just a
way-station on the trip to a much lower stock price.  Investors
that neglected to use a rigid stop loss on these positions could
be FAR underwater right now, with little hope of getting whole
before expiration in January, 2002.  The ability to write
Covered Calls against these positions seems tempting, but alas,
it falls into the category of "too good to be true".  It turns
out that the risk of the LEAP declining in value is the least
of our worries.

While such a trade can be entered, when selling a call with a
lower strike than the LEAP that we own, the broker will consider
it to be a credit spread and therefore will require margin to
cover the additional risk incurred by taking on the position.
The goal that we are trying to accomplish by writing calls
against our LEAP is to reduce the risk of holding the LEAP, by
reducing our cost basis.  Selling a covered call with a lower
strike than the LEAP actually increases our risk, because of
the possibility that the covered call could expire in the money,
while the LEAP is still out of the money.  With a large
disparity in strike prices, you can see we are coming very
close to selling naked calls - the highest risk option trade I
am aware of.  It has limited reward and unlimited risk.  In a
word, UGLY!

Let's go through an example to show why this is such a bad idea.
Assume that we bought CSCO 2002 $40 LEAPS in January, as we
expected that the stock would hold above the $35 level and then
recover.  Not believing there was much downside left in the
stock, we neglected to set a stop loss.  That was our first
mistake as we watched CSCO get taken apart by the bears,
dropping all the way to the $13 level.  Now that the stock seems
to have found a trading range, we decide to try to mitigate the
damage by writing calls against the LEAP.  We want time decay to
work in our favor, so we will be using front-month options.  In
order to harvest any decent premium we need to be selling
near-the-money options on a reversal from overbought.  While we
aren't there yet, it looks like CSCO will get close to $20
before reversing on this cycle so we target the $20 July Call.
The premium we would receive as of Friday's close is a whopping
$0.50.  This hardly seems like much, but we're desperate to do
anything to improve the balance sheet on this play.

If we go to sell the call, our broker wants to protect himself
against the worst case scenario by requiring us to maintain
margin in our account to cover the risk.  That risk amounts to
a dramatic event shooting CSCO to $40/share overnight.  About as
likely as Alan Greenspan showing up to testify before Congress
in a pink tutu, but possible nonetheless.  That move would have
the LEAP finally at the money, but the sold call would be $20 in
the money, handing us a $1950 (($.50 - $20)*100) loss on that
position.  Sure, the LEAP would appreciate somewhat, mitigating
the loss on the covered call, but not nearly enough.

Put another way, we would take in premium of $50 (maximum
reward) with a $2000 maximum risk.  Those are not my kinds of
odds!  So while it is possible to sell calls in this situation,
I don't recommend it.  What we want to focus on in our trading
is selling calls in such a way to reduce our risk.  That means
that we always want to sell calls with a higher strike than the
LEAP that we already own, otherwise referred to as a debit
spread.  As long as we stick to this arrangement, our brokers
should never require us to post any margin to initiate or
maintain the trade.

If at this point you are still interested in trading credit
spreads with LEAPS, make sure you understand the margin rules
and the worst possible outcome in the trade before embarking
down that path.  Each brokerage will have slightly different
margin requirements, so check with your own broker to determine
your specific requirements.

Tune in tomorrow night, as I'll be addressing what was easily
the most popular question received.  Namely, "What do we do
when the Covered Call is in danger of being exercised?"
Another excellent question, and we will cover it in exacting

See you then.

Contact Support


No new call plays tonight


PMCS - PMC-Sierra, Inc. $30.18 -0.89 (-0.89 this week)

PMCS designs, develops, markets and supports high-performance
semiconductor networking solutions.  The company's products are
used in the high-speed transmission and networking systems,
which are being used to restructure the global
telecommunications and data communications infrastructure.
Providing components for equipment based on Asynchronous
Transfer Mode, Synchronized Optical Network, Synchronized
Digital Hierarchy, High Speed Data Link Control, and Ethernet,
the company sells its products to over 100 customers either
directly or through its worldwide distribution channels.

Bullish traders rejoiced last week when PMCS lowered its
earnings estimates and continued to drive shares higher on
hopes that the worst is behind for the beleaguered Networking
sector.  Those bullish hopes appear to have been short-lived
though, as the stock began pulling back midday on Friday and
continued their slide today.  A quick look at the daily chart
shows that PMCS ended today's trading session below the 6-week
descending trendline, currently $31.50.  Combined with the
30-dma ($32.09) and historical resistance at $31, it seems clear
that the bulls are losing their resolve, allowing the bears to
have another day in the sun.  Weakness appearing while the
daily Stochastics haven't even entered overbought is just
another strike against the stock's chances to work higher in the
near term.  Placing a retracement bracket over the stock's gains
since mid-June shows the 38% retracement at $29 and the 50%
retracement at $28, both levels of intraday support.  A drop
through $29 will provide for new entry points, especially if
the Networking index (NWX.X) continues to weaken.  Use intraday
rallies as an opportunity to initiate new positions on a
rollover at $31 or possibly $32.50.  We are starting the play
with our stop at $34, as a close above that level would be a
strong indication that the bulls have not given up yet.

BUY PUT JUL-35 SQL-SG OI=1192 at $6.00 SL=4.50
BUY PUT JUL-30*SQL-SF OI=1468 at $2.85 SL=1.50
BUY PUT JUL-25 SQL-SE OI=2325 at $0.95 SL=0.00

Average Daily Volume = 9.01 mln

QCOM - Qualcomm, Inc. $57.87 -0.61 (-0.61 this week)

Based on its proprietary CDMA technology, QCOM is engaged in
developing and delivering digital wireless communications
services.  The company's business areas include integrated
CDMA chipsets and system software and technology licensing.
QCOM owns patents that are essential to all of the CDMA
wireless telecommunications standards that have been adopted
or proposed for adoption by the worldwide standards-setting
bodies.  Currently, QCOM has licensed its CDMA patent portfolio
to more than 80 telecommunications equipment manufacturers
around the world.

Bullish traders have been giving it their all over the past
few sessions as they struggled to push QCOM through the $60
resistance level.  But the combination of the 50% retracement
of the recent decline, historical resistance at $60 and the
converged 30-dma ($59.23) and 50-dma ($59.66) was too much to
overcome.  The result was a pullback throughout the afternoon
and QCOM just barely managed to hold above the 6-week
descending trendline, currently resting at $57, also the site
of the 38% retracement (actually $57.06).  Falling through this
level will provide an opportunity to initiate new positions
ahead of a drop through $56, which will reverse the Point and
Figure chart into a column of 'O's, setting the stage for a move
back towards the $52 support level.  Because of the strong
resistance, we can place a tight stop at $60, keeping the risk
in the play tightly controlled.  If you are looking for a better
entry point, consider selling any rally that fails to penetrate
the $60 level.  Increased selling volume will just help to
confirm that we are on the right side of the trade.  While QCOM
may find buying support ahead of its earnings announcement, we
don't need to worry about that right now, as the company isn't
set to release its numbers until July 26th.

BUY PUT JUL-60 AAO-SL OI=14456 at $4.10 SL=2.50
BUY PUT JUL-55*AAO-SK OI= 8400 at $1.85 SL=1.00
BUY PUT JUL-50 AAO-SJ OI= 9812 at $0.80 SL=0.00

Average Daily Volume = 13.7 mln

QLGC - QLogic Corporation $62.53 -1.92 (-1.92 this week)

Somebody has to make the equipment that lets your computer talk
to all its peripheral equipment, and QLGC does it well.  A
leading designer and supplier of semiconductor and board-level
input/output (I/O) management products, QLGC has been providing
SCSI-based connectivity solutions to this market sector for over
12 years.  QLGC's I/O products provide a high performance
interface between computer systems and their attached data
storage peripherals, such as hard disk and tape drives,
removable disk drives and RAID (redundant array of independent
disks) subsystems.  The company is also the market share leader
in Fibre Channel host bus adapters, a market segment that is
receiving tremendous attention from investors.

QLGC treated short-term put traders nicely a few weeks ago, and
it looks like it is preparing to do so again.  Although it was
looking pretty strong as it pushed through the $60 resistance
level last week, the bulls ran into trouble at the 200-dma
(currently $66.27) over the past 2 days.  With the daily
Stochastics flattening out in overbought territory, and price
pulling back from the upper Bollinger band, the odds are
shifting back into the bear camp in the near term.  Adding to
the bearish picture, we have the Point and Figure chart
reversing into a column of 'O's today, opening the door for a
retest of the $60 level, possibly as early as tomorrow's
holiday-shortened session.  Resistance gives us a nice location
for our stop, which we are placing at $66.  Use any short-term
strength to initiate new positions on a failed rally near
$65-66.  Given the increase in selling volume this afternoon,
the stock could be headed lower first, providing new entry
points as QLGC falls through the $60 support level.  Once the
bears accomplish that goal they will work on driving the stock
towards mild support at $58 and then firmer support at $54.

BUY PUT JUL-65 QLC-SM OI= 402 at $6.00 SL=4.00
BUY PUT JUL-60*QLC-SL OI=2038 at $3.30 SL=1.75
BUY PUT JUL-55 QLC-SK OI=1487 at $1.80 SL=1.00

Average Daily Volume = 6.25 mln


BBY  - call
Adjust from $61 up to $63

BSYS - call
Adjust from $56 up to $57

JNPR - call
Adjust from $28 up to $29

MVSN - call
Adjust from $64 up to $65


RATL $27.45 -0.60 (-0.60) RATL issued an earnings warning after
the bell Monday, which sent its shares lower by $3.45, or to $24
in the after hours session.  This development is certainly
discouraging for our play, but if the stock behaves similar to
those companies that have warned recently, it may actually
rebound early Tuesday morning.  Keep a close eye on how the
stock opens and use any strength to exit any open positions.


VRSN $60.50 +0.49 (+0.49) Sadly, the unusual last hour of
trading in VRSN on Friday turned out to be a precursor of what
was to come this morning.  Rallying strongly right from the
opening bell, we immediately got confirmation that it was time
to exit the play.  Although the stock seemed to run out of steam
as the day wore on, the fact that our $60 stop was decisively
broken and held into the close leaves us no choice but to move
to the sidelines.  As of this writing, VRSN is being taken apart
in the after hours session on the heels of the ISSX earnings
warning, so traders that held on throughout Monday's session
should still be able to manage a graceful exit on weakness
tomorrow morning.


BA - Boeing $56.36 +0.76 (+0.76 this week)

The Boeing Company is the largest aerospace company in the
world, with its heritage mirroring the history of aviation. It
is the world's largest manufacturer of commercial jetliners
and military aircraft, and the nation's largest NASA contractor.
In terms of sales, Boeing is the largest U.S. exporter.  Total
company revenues for 2000 were $51 billion.

Most Recent Write-Up

Growth in the airline sector is receding at an increasingly
faster rate.  High fuel prices, maintenance costs and slowing
demand from air travelers are causing the major carriers to
cutback on their spending.  That in turn is causing shares of
the world's largest aircraft maker to plummet.  In addition,
the extremely strong dollar is wreaking havoc on Boeing's
overseas sales as currencies around the globe continue to weaken.
After all, "Boeing is the largest U.S. exporter" as highlighted
in the company description above.  The slowdown in orders for
the company's planes combined with the strong dollar-effect
has shares of Boeing below its meaningful support levels as
long liquidation continues to pressure the stock.  We're looking
for the weakness to persist over the coming weeks.  Traders
can look for new entry points into weakness early next week
if BA declines below the $55 level on continued heavy volume.
Conversely, any relief rally on light volume up to either the
$57 or $58 levels may provide an entry point, provided the
advance comes on light volume.  We're initially setting our
stop at the $61 level to provide the play room to work in our
favor.  Keep an eye on other aerospace/defense contractors
such as Northrop Gruman (NOC) and Raytheon (RTN) we gaming
entries into BA put plays.


Shares of Boeing popped above the $57 level Monday morning before
fading into the close.  Its light volume advance may have offered
entries into this play.  If it didn't, traders can use a
breakdown below the $56 level on heavier volume to gain entry.
For those who prefer confirmation, watch for a decline below the
$55 level.

BUY PUT JUL-60 BA-SL OI=6673 at $4.20 SL=2.50
BUY PUT JUL-55*BA-SK OI=5722 at $1.25 SL=0.75

Average Daily Volume = 3.32 mln


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