The Option Investor Newsletter Monday 07-09-2001 Copyright 2001, All rights reserved. 1 of 1 Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited. To view this email newsletter in HTML format with embedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.OptionInvestor.com/htmlemail/9966_1.asp Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 07-09-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10299.40 + 46.72 10323.11 10222.24 1.04 bln 1589/1476 NASDAQ 2026.71 + 22.55 2038.17 2000.08 1.39 bln 2027/1717 S&P 100 618.29 + 5.34 620.19 612.86 totals 3616/3193 S&P 500 1198.78 + 8.19 1201.76 1189.75 53.1%/46.9% RUS 2000 485.98 + 2.72 487.24 480.98 DJ TRANS 2774.71 + 25.79 2775.35 2740.20 VIX 24.55 - 0.42 25.84 24.42 Put/Call Ratio 0.63 ****************************************************************** Bulls Beguiled By Bonds Does the answer to the conundrum lie in the bond market? Perhaps it lies within the hallowed halls of corporate America, which continue to crumble. Either way, the broader market averages appear to be approaching a pivotal action point. The yield of the 30-year Treasury Bond (TYX.X) has spent the last two weeks creeping higher, which means bond market participants have been selling bonds. The same yield action has been observed across the gamut of treasuries, including the 5- and 10-year Notes. Perhaps the rise in yield over the last two weeks can be attributed to weak economic data, such as the horrid payrolls report last Friday. Or, perhaps that capital in the bond market is ready to work its way into equities in a big way. I have the feeling we'll find out, either way, in the next two weeks. Bond market participants are often smarter than those in equities, and their actions often lead the broader market averages. For example, the buying of bonds (Read: Falling Yields) abated on March 22, about nine days prior to the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) hitting bottom on April 4 and subsequently advancing sharply, following the lead of yields. Conversely, the yield of the 30-year Bond peaked (Read: Falling Prices) on May 15, about six days prior to the COMPX tracing its relative high at 2328 on May 22 and subsequently following yields lower. Let me make it clear, that in the short-term, rising yields are good for stocks and falling yields are bad for stocks. Supply and demand, baby, it's that simple. Back to the 30-year yield...The TYX advanced last week while the broader markets sold-off rather sharply. Yields reached as high as 57.71 (5.77%), falling just short of a very pivotal resistance point at 58.00. This level is significant for several reasons, including its positioning on the point & figure chart, as well as the retracement levels that the ever-astute Jeff Bailey has pointed out. Without getting too complicated, however, let me make this simple and actionable. Bullish traders will want to see the TYX break above the 58.00 level, which could unleash stocks. Bearish traders, on the other hand, will look for the TYX to continue weakening from current levels, which could lead to a lack of bids for stocks. The TYX is not the only major market average that is hovering near a pivotal point. The COMPX continues to toy with the 2000 psychological support level with reckless regularity. Its day low Monday: 2000.08. If the COMPX breaks below 2000 in the coming sessions, however, keep in mind that our significant support level at 1975 lies just below. Therefore, bearish traders can use 1975 as confirmation when shorting stocks. In terms of resistance, our all-too-familiar 2060 level is about 30 points above the COMPX's current levels. (By the way, and not by coincidence, the COMPX opened last Friday at the 2060 level and subsequently sank.) Therefore, bullish traders at current levels might keep a close watch on 2060 as confirmation. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) confirmed twice Monday that the 1710 retracement level would serve as near-term resistance. It bumped against that level twice Monday, before fading into the close. Here again with the NDX and 1710, bullish traders and bearish traders alike can monitor this level to assess short-term market risk and conviction. (It's worth while to mention that Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) currently sits on a very critical support level around $65.25 and accounts for roughly 11 percent of the Nasdaq-100.) Like the COMPX and NDX, the S&P 500 (SPX.X) is hovering around a most critical level at 1200. Recall last week that we were monitoring support around 1210, which had propped the S&P up prior to last Friday's steep sell-off that dragged the broad market index below its 50 percent retracement level at 1200. The 1200 level, once support, now serves as resistance, which was clearly evident Monday noting the SPX's intraday high of 1201. Below the S&P's relative low at 1190, I don't see much support on the daily chart until the 1170 - 1180 range. (Worth mentioning concerning the S&P is that its largest component in General Electric (NYSE:GE) recently broke down in bearish fashion and traded heavily Monday.) Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) is working off its previously overbought condition and is now approaching historically oversold conditions. Furthermore, the Dow bounced from its 50 percent retracement level last Friday and again Monday, which lies around the 10235 are. (Random Observation: It's uncanny how these retracement brackets work!) Should we witness a breakdown in the Dow below its retracement level, the index should eventually work its way down to the psychologically significant 10,000 level, which by coincidence is reinforced by the 61.8 percent retracement level. That site would mark a solid exit point for those traders short Dow stocks, such as OI's current Boeing (NYSE:BA) put play. On the upside, the Dow had some trouble settling above the 10,300 level Monday but could work its way up to 10,400 this week provided the right catalyst. Thereafter, it's 10,500 in terms of resistance With our technical levels set forth, we should revisit the idea laid out in my introduction. It feels as if the broader market averages are setting up for a big move in one direction or another, based upon the behavior of the 30-year yield and that fact that the major indices are trading near pivotal levels. The obvious variable we're missing is the direction in which the broader market averages will break. I believe much of that variable is predicated upon second-quarter earnings, which begin in earnest this week. But judging by the oversold conditions in the Dow and Nasdaq, the spike higher in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) and bond yields on the verge of breaking higher, I would suggest that the probability favors an advance over a decline. The difficulty, however, is the timing and execution of any trade to the upside. We can be correct about the direction, but a poor entry at the wrong time can run any trade a foul. The only major flaw that I can find in my bullish thesis is that the S&P 500 is sitting at mid-field in terms of risk versus reward. Or, in other words, overbought versus oversold. And, after all, IT is the broad market index so this flaw is worth mentioning. Furthermore, it's certainly acceptable that both the Dow and Nasdaq can grow more oversold and pullback from current levels. But I believe that if we keep a close watch on bond yields and levels across the broader market averages, we can therefore find profits in this market. Although my bias is slanted to the bullish side, bond yields could start falling and support levels can start giving away. Therefore, traders need to remain flexible in this market and willing to trade both sides. On a final strategy-related note, the current risk versus reward dynamic may lend to entering long plays near support levels (i.e. COMPX at 2000), while entering short plays on breakdowns below support levels (i.e. Dow below 10235). In earnings news, Corning (NYSE:GLW) - the optical cable maker - warned after the bell that it would fall short of estimates, cut jobs and close plants - the usual mantra. The stock shed about 50 cents in after hours. This warning was not unexpected and fits nicely into the trouble in the tech/telecom related complex. Its impact is likely to be minimal, but keep in mind the market's reception of that Marconi (NASDAQ:MONI) blow-up last week. This week kicks off second-quarter earnings season, and on deck Tuesday include DoubleClick (NASDAQ:DCLK) and Rational Software (NASDAQ:RATL), followed by Motorola (NYSE:MOT) and Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) Wednesday, and Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR) Thursday. Questions are welcome: eutley@OptionInvestor.com Eric Utley Editor www.OptionInvestor.com **************** MARKET SENTIMENT **************** A Good Sector Is Hard To Find By Jeffrey Canavan I've always been told that if you can't say anything nice don't say anything at all, but it's hard to find anything nice to say when 99% of all sectors are below their 25, 50, and 200-day moving averages. Perusing the percentage change data for the past 5, 10, and 30 days also makes it hard to find any sectors to be bullish on. If your looking for relative strength, drugs, banks, and Russell 2000 stocks are the only groups performing better than an S&P 500 Index fund on a relative strength basis. If buying oversold sectors at support is your cup of tea, the Nasdaq-100, software, networking, and healthcare sectors might be the place to look. Semiconductors and biotechnology lost key support levels and are not quite oversold yet, making them a 50/50 proposition. Bargain basement stocks can be found in the oil services sector. On a seasonal basis these stocks do tend to bottom in July, but let the buyer beware, these stocks are cheap for a reason. Of the three major indices, the Nasdaq looks like the strongest, as long as 2,000 continues to hold. While technically the Dow and Nasdaq are in neutral territory in terms of Bullish Percent, they are, however, approaching and leaning towards oversold. *************************Sector Watch**************************** Weekly Daily Overbought Support Resistance Trend Trend Oversold DJIA Bearish Bearish Neutral 10,200 10,500 NASD Bearish Bearish Neutral 2,000 2,200 S&P 500 Bearish Bearish Neutral 1,180 1,200 Rus 2000 Neutral Bearish Oversold 480 520 Semis Bearish Bearish Neutral 545 650 Biotech Neutral Bearish Neutral 550 615 Internet Neutral Bearish Oversold 160 186 Networking Bearish Bearish Oversold 314 365 Software Neutral Bearish Neutral 200 233 Banking Bullish Neutral Overbought 640 670 Retail Bearish Bearish Neutral 815 860 Drugs Bearish Neutral Oversold 375 400 Percent Change Last Last Last Relative Strength 5 Days 10 Days 30 Days vs S&P 500 DJIA (3.0%) (4.3%) (7.7%) Negative NASD (6.3%) (0.4%) (11.2%) Neutral S&P 500 (2.1%) (2.2%) (7.3%) N/A Rus 2000 (5.2%) (0.5%) (4.8%) Positive Semis (9.7%) (3.8%) (14.4%) Negative Biotech (7.7%) (6.0%) (9.7%) Negative Internet (6.3%) 2.6% (26.1%) Negative Networking (7.8%) (3.6%) (32.1%) Negative Software (8.9%) (3.5%) (15.0%) Neutral Banking (1.1%) (2.0%) (2.0%) Positive Retail (2.7%) (6.5%) (9.1%) Negative Drugs 2.0% (2.6%) (3.4%) Positive ***************************************************************** ************** TRADERS CORNER ************** Anatomy Of A Winning Trade By Mark Phillips While we sometimes lose sight of the fact here in the office, the variety of readers we have runs the gamut from novice traders, desperate to learn this exciting game, to experienced and accomplished short-term traders that recognize the need for a continuing source of education to keep them fresh and challenged. The wealth of educational material in the archives here at OIN is truly staggering; more than enough to take the newest trader from complete ignorance to mastery of our chosen profession if only they will take the time to learn and then apply that knowledge. Does that sound like a bold statement? It is, but I know it to be true because I remember when I first entered this game. I knew nothing, but had a voracious appetite for reading and learning. Although much of my education predates my discovery of OIN, there is nothing I have learned about the financial markets, options strategies, the psychology of trading and the mechanics of successful entry and exit points that isn't contained in the innumerable pages here at OIN. Despite the wealth of critical educational information that exists here, I know the vast majority of subscribers go right for the plays, because that's where the money is, right? Well we know that is a fallacy, as the plays are only useful to those traders that have learned HOW to play them successfully. At any one time there are 15-20 plays listed in the newsletter, and our first task must be to winnow that list down to the handful we will watch and play during the next market day. Then there is the complex process that we must all go through to get us into and out of the play in a profitable manner. Although there are many plays listed where we are dead wrong, the majority of these never give prudent traders the slightest hint of an entry point. On the other hand, most of the balance of the listed newsletter plays provides several opportunities for profit. With that as our backdrop, I thought it might be useful to profile an OIN Put play that I recently traded prudently and profitably. On June 13th, we added Qlogic Corp. (NASDAQ:QLGC) to the put list for a long list of technical reasons. With solid resistance near $60, a bearish formation on the Point and Figure chart, and oscillators rolling south without even reaching overbought territory, it sounds like a sure winner, doesn't it. Well, it was for me, but that doesn't mean it was for everyone. Just over a week later, QLGC had found bottom and the recovery found it moving to the drop list in fairly short order. Having just traded it profitably, I wrote the Drop with a positive slant, referring to the fact that we were bringing another successful play to a close. Needless to say I was a bit surprised when I was taken to task by a reader asking how I could claim it was a winning play when the stock price had changed very little (down $1.28) and the listed option, the JUL-50 Put was trading at the same point where it was when we began coverage. It didn't stop there though, as the email went on to question our integrity in reporting marginal plays as successful, and that really bothered me. Not so much that someone was questioning my ethics (I'm quite comfortable with the honesty of everything I write), but in the realization that here was someone paying for the service we provide that simply had missed the boat. I don't write this to pick on one individual, but to point out that this game cannot be won through casual interest. It requires discipline and dedication to arm ourselves each day so that we can profit when conditions are such that the odds are in our favor. Hopefully by looking at the trades I took over a couple of days, you can see what is contained in taking a listed play and turning it into a profitable trade. I'm a classic dip-buyer by nature and when playing the downside, that means I want a bounce that I can sell into (actually buy puts, but you get the idea). And in this volatile and schizophrenic market, I've found the most prudent course of action is to be VERY cautious about leaving positions open overnight. Unfortunately, that means I'm making short day-trades most of the time. But small consistent profits are much better than watching a solid gain turn into a loss at the open on the following day. When trading short-term like this, the 5/10 minute charts are my primary tools for entry/exit, although I keep half an eye on the 60/30 charts to make sure I'm not fighting the larger trend. My background research showed me QLGC was in the early stages of a downward move, with its sector just beginning to weaken. The Point and Figure chart showed me heavy resistance near $60 and the $47 level as a likely point at which to take profits (near-term support). So let's take a look, shall we? June 14th saw the price continue to decline without giving me that attractive bounce, but the next day delivered what I wanted in spades. After an opening dip, price rebounded for most of the morning, propelling QLGC up to the $54 area before buyers ran out of steam. Looking at the 30-min chart, I could see Stochastics topped out in overbought territory and just starting to roll over. Sure enough, the rollover I wanted was just getting started. Check out the chart montage below, and I think you'll see what I mean. So I targeted the JUL-50 Puts, placed my order and was almost immediately filled at $4.50. Because of the solid resistance at $54, I opted to set my stop on the stock price rather than the option price, and picked the $55.25 level (Ideally I would use $55, but don't like to use round numbers). Unfortunately, the drop was not as precipitous as I had hoped, and by the close of trading, price had only dropped into the $51-52 area, leaving me with the need to hold not just overnight, but over the weekend if I wanted to make a decent profit. So relying on my stop, I held the position, and as you can see by the following chart, I had a couple of Maalox moments during amateur hour on Monday, the 19th. But with the 30-minute Stochastics still heading south, and my $55 stop intact, I held on until the close on Monday, getting out near the low of the day as Stochastics bottomed, volume began to rise and QLGC appeared to be finding support in the $48-49 level. Sure there might have been more downside in store, but since I was able to close my position for $6.20, I was more than happy to book a 37% gain. As an unexpected bonus, the market conspired to let me play virtually the same game the next morning, although some of the details had changed. With a positive gap on the NASDAQ on the morning of the 19th, it quickly became clear to me that it was going to be a classic "Gap-and-Crap" day. Take a look at this 10-minute chart, and I think you can see the gift I received. All I did was wait for confirmation that the bulls couldn't penetrate resistance (this time they couldn't even reach $53 before letting the bears take over), and then picked out the same contracts for another day trade. This second helping looked so attractive, I didn't even wait until the end of amateur hour, going against the opening gap and picking up a fistful of the JUL-50 Puts for an even $5.00 each. Then all I had to do was watch the price roll lower throughout the day. By 3pm ET, it looked like I might be able to eke out a 50% gain, so I placed my exit order for $7.50. And believe it or not, I got filled at 3:30 exactly at the high of the day. Two short swing trades, spanning a total of 3 market days for an 87% gain. No matter how you slice it, that is the kind of trading performance that puts a smile on my face. Although QLGC remained on the put list for a couple more days before violating its stop and being dropped, that trade on June 19th marked my last entry into the play. Take a look at an intraday chart starting on June 20th, and you can see that conditions were changing, with buyers beginning to dominate and the stock once again tracing higher highs and lows. Disciplined entry/exit gave us a fat profit after a total of 3 days in the trade. Contrast that with a trader that bought puts the morning after we initiated coverage and then exited when the stop was hit. That second trader would have likely closed out the position for a loss, scratching their head and wondering how we could claim winning results on the trade. We're all in this game to win, and I think Entry/Exit skills are just about the most important factor to short-term trading success. Learn what it has to teach, and your account balance will thank you! Have a Profitable Week! Mark ************* NEW CALL PLAY ************* LLY - Eli Lilly $76.40 +1.29 (+1.29 this week) LLY discovers, develops, manufactures and sells Pharmaceutical products targeted at the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of human diseases. The company's best known commercial product is the anti-depressant Prozac, although there are numerous other lesser-known drugs that treat conditions such as Parkinson's disease, diabetes, osteoporosis along with a broad range of antibiotics. The company also conducts research to find products to treat diseases in animals and to increase the efficiency of animal food production. After the abuse heaped on Drug stocks in the past 3 weeks, it was encouraging to see the selling come to an apparent end this morning. The market seems to have digested the bad news coming from the likes of MRK and AMGN and appears ready to let the bulls have a little fun in the sun. As one of the more solid performers over the past couple weeks, LLY looks like a good call candidate, especially with earnings set to be released the morning of July 19th. The $73 level has provided consistent support since mid-February and did so again just over a week ago, giving us a logical level for placing our stop. LLY began to recover last week, moving ahead of the Pharmaceutical index (DRG.X), which found a solid bottom in the $377-378 area and posted a solid 2% rebound today. Risk seems fairly easy to manage in LLY right now, as both a rebound from the $74-75 area or a rally through $77 would provide solid entry points into the play as the stock rallies ahead of its earnings announcement. Resistance is likely to appear near $78.50 and then $80. A close below our $73 stop would be a clear sign of weakness and have us closing the play in a New York minute. ***July contracts expire in less than two weeks*** BUY CALL JUL-75*LLY-GO OI=1184 at $2.50 SL=1.25 BUY CALL AUG-75 LLY-HO OI= 95 at $3.70 SL=2.00 BUY CALL AUG-80 LLY-HP OI= 320 at $1.50 SL=0.75 BUY CALL AUG-85 LLY-HQ OI= 382 at $0.50 SL=2.50 SELL PUT JUL-75 LLY-SO OI=3299 at $0.80 SL=1.50 (See risks of selling puts in play legend) Average Daily Volume = 2.77 mln ************ NEW PUT PLAY ************ ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch $40.56 -0.30 (-0.30 this week) A specialty retailer, ANF is principally engaged in the purchase, distribution and sale of men's, women's and children's casual apparel. The company's retail activities are conducted through retail stores, a catalogue, a magazine and a website, all bearing some form of the company name. Merchandise is targeted to appeal to customers in specialty markets, who have distinctive consumer characteristics. The almighty consumer appears to be weakening, and that should come as no surprise. With the economy in a recession (no matter what positive spin the CNBC talking heads try to put on it), layoffs mounting, and the Fed unable to solve the problem with interest rate cuts, it should come as no surprise that consumer spending is slowing. And the first area that should feel the pinch is discretionary spending. Don't you think that Joe and Jane consumer will look at the trendy offerings from the likes of ANF and take a pass in the near-term? I do, and the Bullish Percent reading for the S&P Consumer Discretionary Index is flashing a big warning signal too. Reversing from a recent high of 74%, it is now down to 65% and flashing a Bear Confirmed reading on the Point and Figure chart. As the broader sector weakens, we are looking for ANF to get dragged lower. Already resting just above the critical $40 support level, the stock got another black mark today as it fell below the 50-dma ($40.69). Below that, there is very little support until the $35 level. The Point and Figure chart shows us that ANF posted a Bearish Triangle Breakdown today and trading $39 will give us a nice confirmation with a Double-Bottom Breakdown. There seems to be some decent resistance at $43, so we will set our stop there to protect against any surprises. Use a failed rally in the $42-43 area or a drop below $39 as possible entry strategies. ***July contracts expire in less than two weeks*** BUY PUT JUL-40*ANF-SH OI=265 at $1.40 SL=0.75 BUY PUT AUG-40 ANF-TH OI=108 at $2.65 SL=1.25 Average Daily Volume = 1.31 mln ***************** STOP-LOSS UPDATES ***************** ORCL - call Adjust from $17.50 up to $18 QCOM - call Adjust from $55 up to $58 TGH - call Adjust from $63 up to $64 ANN - put Adjust from $35 down to $34 BA - put Adjust from $57 down to $55 ************* DROPPED CALLS ************* FMKT $18.75 -1.00 (-1.00) Having the weekend to think things over didn't improve investors' mood any, at least not where FMKT was concerned. While the selling volume seemed to wane a bit, the price continued to fall, hitting a low of $17.89 before any buyers surfaced to prop up the stock. Alas, that was so far below our $19 stop, that we had lost all interest by that time. And rightly so, since the recovery couldn't even get the stock boosted over the $19 level before the close. And it looks like there could be more downside in store with Stochastics pointed down and plenty of white space down below. Needless to say, FMKT is a drop tonight and all positions should have been closed out on today's weakness. WB $68.82 -0.20 (-0.20) With weakness rearing its ugly head, we are going to make an early exit from the WB play. Even though the broader markets staged a tepid recovery and the Banking index (BKX.X) eked out a small gain, WB fell for the 4th consecutive day, albeit on light volume. WB is still holding above the $68 support level (also the location of our stop), but we think there are better opportunities elsewhere. We're dropping it tonight to make room on the playlist for those better opportunities. *********** DROPPED PUT *********** No dropped puts tonight ********************** PLAY OF THE DAY - CALL ********************** QCOM - Qualcomm, Inc. $61.72 +3.54 (+3.54 this week) Based on its proprietary CDMA technology, QCOM is engaged in developing and delivering digital wireless communications services. The company's business areas include integrated CDMA chipsets and system software and technology licensing. QCOM owns patents that are essential to all of the CDMA wireless telecommunications standards that have been adopted or proposed for adoption by the worldwide standards-setting bodies. Currently, QCOM has licensed its CDMA patent portfolio to more than 80 telecommunications equipment manufacturers around the world. Most Recent Write-Up Bouncing from call list to put list on an almost weekly basis, QCOM looks like it is ready for an upward move again. After shooting up to the $64 level on Tuesday, following an expanded CDMA licensing deal with Nokia, QCOM succumbed to the general holiday-week market malaise, dropping particularly sharply on Friday. Make no mistake, this is an aggressive play, where we are looking for the NASDAQ to hold the 2000 level and recover next week, taking QCOM along for the ride. Note that the stock halted its slide on Friday near $58, right at the 38% retracement of the recent rally. Look for a bounce near this level, support near $57 or $56 (the 50% retracement level) to provide attractive entry points, but keep a tight stop set at $55. Earnings are set for July 26th, but that is likely too far away to have a significant effect this week. Watch the NASDAQ Composite for a clue to QCOM's direction. If it falls through the 2000 level and can't mount a recovery, QCOM will likely have a hard time making upward progress and we'll want to stand aside. The more conservative approach will be to see the Composite bounce from the lower end of its range (near 2000) and QCOM clear the $60 level before initiating new positions. Comments QCOM led the Nasdaq higher Monday, and has the potential to continue advancing. The stock benefited from an upgrade and that momentum may be enough to keep working into Tuesday's session. Watch for a breakout above the $63 level if the Nasdaq is advancing. Otherwise, a light volume pullback to support at $60 may offer enterprising entry points. ***July contracts expire in less than two weeks*** BUY CALL JUL-55 AAO-GK OI= 7633 at $ 7.80 SL=5.50 BUY CALL JUL-60*AAO-GL OI=15951 at $ 4.00 SL=2.50 BUY CALL AUG-55 AAO-HK OI= 3279 at $10.10 SL=7.00 BUY CALL AUG-60 AAO-HL OI= 2584 at $ 6.90 SL=5.00 BUY CALL AUG-65 AAO-HM OI= 5132 at $ 4.40 SL=2.75 Average Daily Volume = 12.5 mln ******************* FREE TRIAL READERS ******************* If you like the results you have been receiving we would welcome you as a permanent subscriber. The monthly subscription price is 39.95. The quarterly price is 99.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate. We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may subscribe at any time but your subscription will not start until your free trial is over. 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