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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/20/2003

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Thursday 03-20-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                       1 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

In Section One:

Wrap: War Rally?
Readers Write: Now We’re Going To See What This Market Is Really
Made Of...
Futures Markets: War Market, Market Wars
Index Trader Wrap:
Market Sentiment: The Energizer Market
Weekly Manager Microscope: Marty Zweig: Zweig Fund (ZF)


Updated on the site tonight:
Swing Trader Game Plan: The Trend Continues


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      03-20-2003           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     8286.60 + 21.20  8318.81  8130.86 1.66 bln 1847/1348
NASDAQ   1402.77 +  5.70  1411.41  1371.90 1.55 bln 1760/1423
S&P 100   445.79 +  0.95   447.79   437.35   Totals 3607/2771
S&P 500   875.84 +  1.82   879.60   859.01
W5000    8284.59 + 26.20  8314.22  8123.18
RUS 2000  370.49 +  1.98   371.27   362.64
DJ TRANS 2170.55 + 21.40  2177.11  2117.77
VIX        35.26 -  0.92    38.10    34.36
VXN        48.48 +  0.28    49.57    46.75
Total Volume 3.577B
Total UpVol  2,110B
Total DnVol  1,378M
52wk Highs  145
52wk Lows   116
TRIN       1.03
PUT/CALL   0.56
************************************************************

War Rally?

The great war rally sputtered to a start with about as much
enthusiasm as the bombing in Baghdad. We got a couple of
buying spurts intraday after bouncing back from the morning
"sell the news" drop and Baghdad got a couple bombs on three
buildings. The lack of shock and awe in the rally matched
the lack of shock and awe in the bombing. Both started
with a whimper.

Dow Chart - Daily




Nasdaq Chart - Daily



Wilshire 5000 Chart - Daily




The Jobless Claims fell slightly from 425K to 421K but the
estimate was for a drop to 415K. The four-week moving average
rose to 425K and continuing claims to 3.55 million. Not a
great piece of economic news for any post war rally. The
continuing claims rose to the highest level since November.
The weak job market in February continues to get weaker in
March and there is no improvement in sight.

The Conference Board Leading Indicators fell -0.4% in February
and this was the first decline since September 2002. Even
worse than the CBLI was the Philadelphia Fed Survey which
came in at -8.0% compared to the consensus of +1.0%. This
9% difference shows how far the manufacturing sector has
fallen in the last month. According to all reports activity
just stopped in mid February and has not returned. New
Orders fell to -4.3 from +14.1 and prices paid rose to
25.1 from 16.2. Inventories continued to fall as well
as the average work week and delivery times. Excess
capacity and weak demand continues to pressure the
workforce and produce more layoffs. The only material
improvement was the six month outlook which went from
24.7 to 46.4 solely on the hope that the Iraq war would
be over and the economy would begin to recover.

The Fed minutes for the January meeting showed that the
Fed expected an economic recovery soon but that the
confidence in that outlook by some Fed members was wearing
thin. There was increased concern that the Iraq war was
not the actual problem and even after the conflict is
over we could see more weakness. Considering this was
at the January meeting and with the increased confusion
expressed at the March meeting it appears that the
frustration is continuing to build. The FOMC still felt
the current stimulus in place would be enough to power
the economy but was looking forward to the President's
plan as well. This official view was different to the
view from Greenspan when he testified before Congress
after the meeting. In general the consensus was still
a better economy 4-6 months out but that view was getting
weaker.

The Dow managed to close positive for the seventh
consecutive day but just shy of 8300. The Dow has not
had a seven day streak since July 2000. The Nasdaq
spent the day fighting to break and hold 1400 and
despite a dip at the close it managed to close at 1402.
This is a minor victory but still a victory. This comes
only a day before a quadruple witching Friday with
single stock futures adding to the expiration matrix.

The war rally sputtered and coughed today as it did in
the futures over night. The bombs fell and so did the
averages as institutions sold into every rally attempt.
The selling was not strong but just strong enough to
keep the markets from making any major gains. It would
appear the buyers are waiting for the "shock and awe"
phase of the attack to spend their money, if they have
any left.

The Dow hit a high today of 8318, which just happens to
be the 100DMA and strong resistance. The Nasdaq high of
1411 was just below the 200 EMA of 1415. Now let's review
the circumstances. The markets have stretched their
winning streak to seven days and nearly +900 points in
the case of the Dow. This was in anticipation of a rally
on the start of the war. The major indexes have risen to
strong resistance and slowed to a crawl. The war started
and despite a nice rebound from a -100 point opening dip
there was no monster rally. It appears the post war rally
may be a figment of the bulls imagination.

Obviously it is too soon to form that opinion but there
are some other indicators to watch. The VIX fell to 35
and is not showing any real fear of a drop. Option
activity is minimal and is not showing any expectations
of a bounce or a dip. Yesterday we had significant put
buying on the S&P-500 but today was minimal. Basically
all the bets have been placed. Buyers loaded up over the
last week in anticipation of a repeat of the 1991 rally
and in effect pushed that rally forward in time. Even the
drop in oil prices to $28 from last months near $40
level failed to spark the markets and this is a MAJOR
economic plus.

I am not going out on a limb and say there is not a
continuation of this rally in our near future. The shock
and awe campaign is rumored to be starting tomorrow due
to the final approval by Turkey to allow multiple battle
groups to over fly their country. This could trigger
another bout of buying but the basic problem still
remains. It is the economy not the war. Yes, the fear
and uncertainty of war has impacted our economy but the
real problem is lack of demand, high unemployment and
lack of any single factor to power a rebound. Just
starting the war will not solve this. There is now
a greater chance of a terrorist attack or multiple
terrorist attacks. Remember, even though Osama thinks
Saddam is crazy (pot calling the kettle black?) he
started plotting attacks on the US when we attacked
Iraq the first time. His justification was the killing
of Muslims by the great satan regardless of the reason.
We have even less reason this time around and the
Homeland Security briefings have said they have received
specific and credible intelligence of potential new
attacks. (Heard that before?)

My point tonight is simple. A short war is already priced
in and anything contrary to that opinion will cause bulls
to exit early. The rally is priced in and lack of any
continuation may cause bulls to start taking profits
off the table. There are very few reasons for traders
to add to long positions now. There are many reasons
for traders to reduce long positions with no magic
bullet taking out a certain key leader in Iraq. In short
the balance of risk has shifted from the bears to the
bulls. When we were at 7400 there was no future for
the shorts. At 8300/1400 there is no future for the
bulls without a major news event to break the status
quo. I am not giving up on a war rally but I am
definitely keeping my eye on the down side potential
as well.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


*************
READERS WRITE
*************

Now We’re Going To See What This Market Is Really Made Of...
By Rick Utt

Lets get some things straight. Business has hit the skids,
prospects of a recovery in the near term are dim, layoffs have
not slowed down (my brother in law was done away with in a mass
layoff from Siemens just yesterday) and if anything has really
changed economically in the last week or two, outside of
speculative oil prices, its been for the worse. So why such a
monstrous rally?

If you have read the few things I’ve written for OIN you know I
prefer to think like the market maker rather than the buyer or
better said, the storeowner rather than the customer. If we look
at ourselves as the customer, always scouring the isles for
bargains we can resell to others, chances are we can make some
money here and there on good deals if we can find the right
buyer. But we can also lose money by purchasing things that our
customers can get from the storeowner at a better price. The
storeowner has the flexibility to adjust prices according to
supply and demand. We don’t. We bought something at a price and
we have to sell it at a better price.

As the storeowner or market maker we have to look at what will be
the most profitable way to conduct business. Granted we can make
money whether the market goes up or down, but if we drive the
market to extremes and prepare along the way,  we can make a
whole bunch of money when the market moves in the opposite
direction. This is why in major downtrends we need to look at
rallies as suspect and in uptrends when the market sells off
dramatically, we do the same.   Violent moves in the market are
total market manipulation and nothing less.  Those days when
you’re long and you see your stock plummet before your very eyes
does not mean everybody got together without you and decided to
sell. Its just the market makers deciding they want more stock
and they want it at a lot better price than you paid for it. They
have that ability, they pay big money for it and they use it to
their full advantage.

With that in mind, how is the market maker going to maximize
their profit in a market that is slowly going down? Do they look
for opportunities to short stock when it might jump up a quarter
or two and cover it when they’ve made a few cents profit or would
they be more opportunistic and use the uncertainty of a major
event like a war as a catalyst to get a rally going that may
create, pardon the expression, the mother of all shorting
opportunities? Everybody certainly was saying a rally was
imminent as soon as the shooting started, and when everybody says
something about the stock market you can pretty much count on
everybody being dead wrong! Just like when everybody says “buy”,
its time to sell.

The rally started when no one expected, as usual. The rally has
been straight up, no “ifs, ands or buts” about it. And any rally
worth its salt, rallies, pulls back, rallies, pulls back and so
on.  Each one of those pullbacks is a marker for traders as to
the strength of the rally and it builds a foundation along the
way. However, what if there was no time for that process to take
place? Or what if it was designed for that process not to take
place. Then you would have a rally with no markers, no strength,
and one that looks like a pole standing straight with nothing to
brace it, ready to topple. That is exactly what has happened with
this particular rally.

What we have are all the things that are big negatives for
rallies and, and this is a big “and”, we have had a rising
volatility index (VIX) or “fear index” as its called, with a
rising market. Of course how this plays out remains to be seen
but in the end it always plays out and this is not a combination
with which we should feel comfortable.

Lets play a game with charts and see if this gives us any insight
as to what may happen.

Volatility Index daily bar chart


The Volatility Index has been lining itself up to tell us
something since last July. In “equity speak”, this would be a
“Bullish Wedge” when it breaks to the upside. “A” was resistance
it set up for itself and then dropped back to take a run at it
and broke through. “B” was the same. However not only did “B”
break through resistance, it broke through the wedge as well.
After that happened it quickly came back is if nobody was to
notice and basically sat there while the Dow has rallied from
bottom to top, 902 points in the last seven days. The fact that
it has hardly moved and at times even increased while the indexes
rallied is a phenomena in itself.  By looking at this, one would
think the market has been put on hold, however we know by looking
at the breakout, its already tipped its hand.

Our chart game is called “upside down” and here is where it may
give us a clue

Volatility Index daily bar chart – upside down!




Sometimes its easier to understand gravity than trajectory. If
ever you want to confirm an opinion when charting a stock, turn
it upside down. Declines are exactly the same as rallies in
reverse and visa versa. It’s a trick I tried a long time ago and
it quickly removes any bias you may have in looking at stock
movement. Now, does this chart look like the VIX is getting ready
to shoot through the top or is it rolling over and getting ready
to collapse? The fact that it has violated the latest support
(red line with the arrow) and it has violated the uptrend line
shows that it has no strength whatsoever and looks to be hanging
very heavy. And any arguments for the upside are nil at this
point because it has no momentum either. Is there any doubt that
we are in for a rising VIX?

Not only is it evident with this picture, but put all the other
pieces of the puzzle together as well, i.e., a huge rally but no
VIX movement, the rally has no foundation, pullbacks or earmarks
of any rally with substance and it takes place the week prior,
and up until the day of, a global confrontation in the center of
the world’s energy arena. Is it any wonder the “fear index” has
refused to drop?

I’ve been harping on the VIX for some time now. Whether it has
any validity or not I think will be shown shortly. I think its
mapped out too perfectly to be coincidental but either way we’ll
learn something from where it goes from here and how it reacts
with the market as it does. Whatever happens will be very
interesting and just the fact that we’re paying attention to it
now gives us an added advantage in an arena where advantages are
extremely hard to come by.


***************
FUTURES MARKETS
***************

War Market, Market Wars
By Vlada Raicevic

Daily Settlement Numbers 4:15pm ET

Contract	Last	Net	High	Low

Dow	8286.60	+21.15	8318.81	8130.86
YM 03M	8261	+21	8302	8100

Nas 100	1080.24	+5.27	1089.21	1052.92
NQ 03M	1082	+6	1094	1056

S&P 500	875.84	+1.82	879.60	859.01
ES 03M	875.25	+2.50	879.25	857.25


Daily Pivots

Contract	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2
YM 03M	8029	8160	8231	8362	8433
NQ 03M	1040	1062	1078	1100	1116
ES 03M	849.63	864	871.63	886	893.63


We had our first real pullback in the markets at the open.  Then
the war news started rolling in, and we had a very strong V-bounce
off the morning lows.  We had three waves up, which failed at
879.25, close to strong resistance at 880.  As has been the norm,
selling was reluctant, and buying was strong.  There was a lot of
indecision today, with traders realizing that we are overbought,
but not wanting to get run over by shorting, and/or not wanting to
miss THE HUGE WAR RALLY that has been advertised since the concept
was brought up many weeks ago, and repeated over and over and over
and over again in the standard and financial press.

Technicals were tough to trade: there was a perfect rising wedge
on the ES that broke down out of the wedge, was immediately
bought, moved back into the wedge, and then broke up out of the
wedge to the day highs, and then rolled over again to break down
out of the new wedge created.  Are you confused yet?

While it would be wonderful for me to type up a nice, clear
sentence or paragraph to explain the price action today, I’m at a
loss.  We got more bad economic news today, but it was bombed into
oblivion by the war, ignored, as much of recent economic issues
have been.  We all know what happens if you cut yourself, get an
infection, and then ignore it for a few weeks because you were too
busy with your macrame hobby.  Those with a bearish bent are
wagging their fingers and saying “just you wait, Mr. Market”, the
cold-water-in-the-face moment is coming.  They may be right, and
personally, I believe they are right.  There is much to be worried
about with regards to the economy, and by extension, the market.
However, we will attempt to do the right thing and trade what we
see.

What do we see? As a technical trader, the uncertainty and mixed
signals tell me to wait for this whole mess to resolve.  However,
this could take awhile.  If you are trading, short or long term,
the main question at this time is: How much risk are you willing
to take?  Low risk traders should be on the sidelines, high risk
traders should be allocating only a small amount of their capital.

In looking at the daily ES and YM charts I see a topping
formation.  With smaller candles forming a slight rounding top,
echoed by the RSI which is rounding over.  NQ made a lower low and
lower high today.  Keep in mind that the old saying “lower high,
lower low” isn’t always bearish. Several candles like this can
create a small downward channel, and if the market is in an
uptrend, this small channel is actually a bull flag.  But herein
lies the uncertainty.  Some would argue we are in a downtrend,
others would argue that we have tested the bottom successfully,
and that we are now in the first leg of a bullish turn.  Maybe.
But keep those economic indicators from the past few months in
mind when thinking long term bullish.

Each day I hope for some kind of confirmation, and each day I’m
disappointed.  On the daily there really isn’t a true rollover
which we can point to and say, “aha!”.  In fact, the chart looks
suspended in time, echoing the indecision in the markets.
Therefore, let’s look at shorter timeframes again to see if they
tell us anything.

ES 270 Minute All Sessions Chart:
We are still within the boundaries of the trendlines, with the
lower trendline broken on this mornings lows, but price closed
well above it, and trendline above pierced a few times, but still
holding as resistance. I’ve added a line (blue) to include the
brief high made above the initial trendline to see if it holds any
additional moves up.  From this chart you can see that the move up
has basiscally ended.  Is this consolidation before another push
up, or is it distribution, which, once it ends, we head down?  ADX
shows that selling has finally picked up a little, but the last
candle reverses the pattern with an uptick in buying and a
downtick in selling.  However, the trend on D+ and D- is
definitely bearish in nature.  Macd, RSI and Stochastic are all
still in bullish territory.






ES 60 Minute Chart:
Weakness continues to mark this chart.  Price gapped below the
rising wedge, and then that broken trendline acted as resistance
on todays rise.  Although price broke above yesterday’s highs, it
was barely noticed by Macd and CCI, RSI made a lower high, and ADX
shows buying continues to fall off.





NQ 270 Minute All Sessions Chart:
While the YM charts continue to look just like the ES, the NQ,
which has been weaker lately had a better day.  The NQ broke below
two recent uptrend lines (red and blue), and new line has been
drawn along today’s lows.  The move up after today’s early morning
drop was enough to bring Macd close to crossing up, has fast
Stochastic ready to cross the centerline (although Slow Stochastic
is rolling over), and has D+ looking like it wants to reverse the
slide down, as does the RSI.  This chart tells us that the slide
in the NQ has slowed down and may be on the verge of turning up
again.  Although the chart still has bullish undertones, with Macd
and RSI still above centerline, the recent bearish attitude was
winning out until today.






NQ 60 Minut Chart:
Price down out of the rising wedge, and then moved back inside it,
then broke down out of it again (red lines), which is bearish as
it could not hold a bullish reversal back into the wedge.  New
line drawn (orange) to include recent trend, and new longer term
line drawn off the bottom (green line).  Macd bounced off
centerline, but it was a weak bounce, and RSI formed a bearish
divergence.  CCI has flatlines, telling us nothing, but it did
move back above its moving average.  D+ has flatlined, not
supporting the three hour move up off the morning lows.






-----------------------------------------------------------------

Renko Charts.
These will be updated when necessary.

Daily Renko for ES:




Daily Renko for NQ:




Daily Renko for YM:
This one is a little more difficult.  I set the box size to 5
rather than 2, and I don’t display the huge climb from the recent
rally (it would take up most of the chart).  With the larger box
size, the absolute numbers have a slightly larger margin of error.






********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Check the Site Later Tonight For Jeff’s Index Trader Article
http://members.OptionInvestor.com/itrader/marketwrap/iw_032003_1.asp


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****************
MARKET SENTIMENT
****************

The Energizer Market
by Steve Price

Today certainly gave us some conflicting signals, with the Dow
and other indices trading in extremes as the markets adjusted to
the start of war.  The first move was lower, as bulls took some
profits off the table from the past few sessions. We cracked a
few seemingly important support levels, only to find buyers
stepping back in to buy the dip. There has been much talk about a
war rally and the possibility that we have already seen the
buying in anticipation of a repeat of 1991.  However, if appears
that sinking oil prices and the removal of market uncertainty
have kept the money flowing back into equities. At the end of the
day, it was clear that we are... stilllll going.

One indication that bullish sentiment is alive and well is the
bond market.  One of the more interesting observations that I've
discussed in recent articles was the bounce in yields (reflecting
selling in bonds) that came at the same time as the Dow/SPX/OEX
all filled their bearish head and shoulders objectives.  At the
same time those objectives were filled, the ten and thirty year
yields hit their October lows.  The yield charts tend to mirror
the equities, since they show an inverse relationship to bonds
(as the price of a bond goes up, its yield drops).   The bounce
off the October lows indicated a reallocation of money from bonds
back into stocks at that time and the yields soared over the past
few sessions along with stocks.  The ten-year made it all the way
up to almost 4% where it stalled on Wednesday.  It found legs
again Tuesday (as bond selling continued) along with stocks in
the afternoon rally and broke through that 4% mark that has
served as closing resistance since the end of January.  It
reached a high of 4.044 and by the end of the day, finished at
4.006.  The close above 4.0 is yet another bullish sign. There is
intraday resistance at 4.1%, so that should be the next level for
traders to watch.

The SPX had failed on Wednesday just 0.01 shy of a bearish
resistance breakthrough on the point and figure chart and stalled
out again there on the first rally attempt.  However, the
afternoon breakout took us as high as 879.60 and led to that
complete breakthrough. The OEX had a breakthrough on Wednesday on
its 2.5 point PnF chart and the Dow has finally cracked the 8300
level from the downside.

That 8300 level in the Dow is important as it served as long term
support before the head and shoulders breakdowns last September
and again in January.  It served as support for the shoulder
formations in the last pattern and for the neckline in the
former.  It was the first close below 8300 that sent us reeling
in both instances and a close above it certainly appears to put
us back on the path to 8800. We weren't able to achieve that
close today, but we are getting closer.  The SPX was able to
maintain a close above the 875 breakthrough level. While it may
not be straight up from here, we continue to add to the bullish
sentiment that has turned the bullish percents higher in the Dow,
SPX and NDX and it appears we have seen a significant turning of
the tide that may not end soon.

While it seems less effective to study the technicals as we head
into war, knowing world events could render them useless for
short periods of time, they do measure the ultimate response to
those events and for that reason, may actually cut through some
of the noise and opinions we hear from analysts.  After all, the
true measure of financial opinions is where you put your money.
If institutions think we are undervalued they will buy and if
they think we are overvalued they will sell.  The charts let us
know exactly what is happening, regardless of the reasons behind
it.

As the price of oil continues to plummet, in spite of the flaming
Iraqi oil fields, cost reductions will eventually make their way
into consumers' pockets and businesses' cost savings. That may be
the quickest way to turn the economy back around and it seems
that plenty of investors feel the same way.  If the war goes as
quickly and neatly as many people think it will, then there may
be some basis for the rally.  Many companies are citing the war
as the main reason that there is a hold on spending.  However,
right now that is the easy excuse for a poor economy.  Oil
futures are approaching the $27-$28 top we saw as resistance
through much of last fall. We got a bounce off that level this
morning, which also coincided with the 200-dma on the futures
contract.  If the drop in price slows, the equity rally may slow
as well.

In what the U.S. calls a financial offensive, the government
seized and confiscated all non-diplomatic Iraqi government assets
held in the U.S. and directed other countries to do so, as well.
Treasury Secretary Snow said that any country that did not comply
with the request might face denied access to U.S. markets. Turkey
also voted to allow the U.S. use of its airspace, which according
to many experts should help the U.S. effort significantly.


Each chart I look at appears very overbought and I can't help but
think, "There's no way that is sustainable," or "it's got to be
time for a pullback."  However, we continue to climb higher and I
keep prodding myself with the adage that the trend is in effect
until demonstrated otherwise. Right now, the recent uptrend is
still in effect.  Traders should be careful with this particular
trend because of the global pressures; but until something
changes, lean long - just do it with risk capital only.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8287

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7895
 50-dma: 8072
200-dma: 8447



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  875

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  839
 50-dma:  855
200-dma:  893



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1080

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1026
 50-dma: 1009
200-dma:  994



-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX): The SOX crept higher again today,
flirting with that resistance at 331 I talked about earlier in
the week.  It reached a high of 334 intraday, but fell back to
329 at the close.  The break above 331 was promising, but a close
would have been better for bulls.  The next level of resistance
here is 350 and there are a number of stocks that are flirting
with corresponding resistance.  OI has added MXIM to our call
list with a trigger of $40.50.  Other stocks to watch for a
breakout in the sector are LLTC above $35 and CCMP above $48.
Look for support in the SOX above 331 before leaping, though.

52-week High: 393
52-week Low : 214
Current:      329

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 296
 50-dma: 293
 200-dma: 314

-----------------------------------------------------------------


The VIX has continued to hold above support at 34-35%.  The
descending trend line from the July 2002 and October 2002 highs
continues to keep a lid on it, while it finally broke below the
200-dma at 35.62, but not by much.  Traders should continue to
watch the 34-35% level for signs of a breakdown, which would be
bullish for equities.  Until then, the VIX is signaling caution
for long positions at this level.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 35.26 -0.92
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 48.48 +0.28

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.56        854,816       480,038
Equity Only    0.52        515,240       269,260
OEX            0.86         60,455        51,823
QQQ            0.41         95,961        39,566


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          38.1    + 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    45.0    + 1     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   30.0    +10     Bull Alert
S&P 500       36.8    + 2     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       35.0    + 8     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.68
10-Day Arms Index  1.30
21-Day Arms Index  1.37
55-Day Arms Index  1.29


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1698           1120
NASDAQ     1680           1358

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        59               28
NASDAQ      46               34

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,661
NASDAQ     1,549


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/11/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added to both sides of the equation, with an
additional 14,000 long contracts and 13,000 shorts.  Small
traders mirrored that activity, adding 5,000 longs and 4,000
shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)
03/11/03      440,688   485,938   (45,250)   (4.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%
03/11/03      169,450   102,631    66,819     24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added almost equally to both sides with 3,700 long
contracts and 3,000 shorts. The slightly higher addition to the
long side was similar to the activity in the S&P.  Small traders
got longer as well, with 3,000 additional long contracts and
1,600 additional shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)
03/11/03       43,641     56,020   (12,379) (12.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02


Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%
03/11/03       27,196     9,674    17,522    47.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials broke ranks in the Dow, adding 1,600 short contracts
and only 400 longs.  Small traders added 300 long contracts and
reduced shorts by about the same amount.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%
03/11/03       21,726    14,370    7,356      20.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%)
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)
03/11/03        5,549     7,727    (2,178)   (16.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01


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*************************
WEEKLY MANAGER MICROSCOPE
*************************

Marty Zweig: Zweig Fund (ZF)

This week, at the request of one reader, we look at Marty Zweig's
Zweig Fund (ZF) a "closed-end" investment company that operates a
mutual fund with a limited number of shares outstanding.  Unlike
"open-end" management companies, which create new shares to meet
investor demand, such closed-end funds start with a set number of
shares and are listed on a stock exchange.  The Zweig Fund trades
on the Big Board ("NYSE") and has approximately 60,000,000 shares
outstanding, per Morningstar's report.  As of March 14, the Zweig
Fund traded at a 9.6% discount (market price to net asset value).

Mr. Zweig has served as president of Zweig Advisors
since 1971.  His bio reads that he's also currently
research director with Avatar Investors Associates,
an asset management firm that manages pension plans
and other securities accounts.  Zweig has provided
investment-advisory services since 1971 as well as
portfolio-management services since 1972. Zweig is
also a frequent contributor to Barron's as well as
regular panelist on Wall Street Week.

In 1998, Zweig was described by one article as "perhaps the most
successful predictor of market trends in the history of Wall
Street."  Prior to January 3, 2003, however, Morningstar rated
his Zweig Fund just 1 star for "risk-adjusted" returns relative
other "large-cap value" closed funds.  One star is Morningstar's
lowest star rating and is assigned to the bottom 10% of funds in
a category.  On January 3, Morningstar increased the Zweig Fund
rating to two stars, signifying "below-average" relative returns
within the large-cap value category.

Zweig has managed the Zweig Fund since its inception in 1986 and
has co-managed the closed-end fund with Jeff Lazar since January
1995.

Investment Style/Strategy

Zweig and Lazar take a "risk-adverse" approach to the management
of the Zweig Fund based on various proprietary models.  They use
several factors to predict market trends, such as the prime rate,
Fed discount rate, installment debt indicator, and the Value Line
Composite Index.  They utilize equities and/or debt securities in
rising markets, and money market securities to protect capital in
falling markets.  Their goal is to achieve "above-average" return
over a complete market cycle with a reduced amount of risk.

Zweig also looks at momentum, sentiment, and seasonal indicators.
He is a momentum player, buying stocks already moving upward, but
only when the market overall is in an upward trend.  He also runs
contrary to certain "sentiment" indicators including cash balance
levels (in funds) and secondary offerings, and takes into account
such seasonal indicators as trading before holidays and "January"
effect.  Zweig admits that pegging such indicators as "sentiment"
is more an art than science.

As of June 30, 2002, the Zweig Fund had 78% of assets invested in
common stock, warrants, options and other equities, with 22% held
in cash and fixed income securities maturing in less than 1 year.
The equity portion of the fund portfolio had an average P/E of 20
and an average market capitalization of $75 billion (ultra large-
cap).  Annual portfolio turnover was reported to be 57.7 percent.

Per the most recent Morningstar report, the Zweig Fund's average
market cap was $40.5 billion at February 28, 2003, with about 48%
of stock investments in giant-cap stocks and another 36% invested
in large-cap stocks.  Based on the fund's average style, it lands
in the Morningstar large-cap value style box.

Investment Performance/Ratings

While Morningstar's portfolio data other than average market cap
is stale, they do provide up-to-date performance numbers through
March 14, 2003.  They also provide annual (year-to-year) returns
and trailing 10-year average annual return as of February 28, so
you can get a very good idea of how well the Zweig Fund has done
compared to other large-cap value, closed-end funds.  Below is a
summary of returns and category percentile rankings (1-best, 100-
worst) per Morningstar.

 Year-To-Year (NAV) Returns/Rankings:
 +14.5%  1996  90th Percentile
 +21.8%  1997  88th Percentile
 + 5.9%  1998  85th Percentile
 +12.9%  1999  17th Percentile
 - 6.2%  2000  96th Percentile
 -14.6%  2001  96th Percentile
 -23.9%  2002  85th Percentile
 - 2.0%  2003(YTD)  2nd Percentile

As you can see, the Zweig Fund landed in the bottom quintile six
times since 1996, and in the bottom decile three times.  Looking
at "annualized" return performance next Morningstar provides the
following information:

 Average Annual (NAV) Returns/Rankings:
 -34.7%  1-Year  27th Percentile
 -15.7%  3-Year  N/a
 - 8.2%  5-Year  N/a
 + 2.5%  10-Year  99th Percentile

Morningstar didn't indicate the fund's category rankings for the
trailing 3-year and 5-year periods, but the 99th percentile rank
over the past decade speaks for itself.  That falls way short of
the goal to achieve above-average return over a complete market
cycle.  A look at Morningstar's risk data also suggests that the
Zweig Fund has fallen short of its "reduced risk" objective.  In
the Morningstar report, the fund's 10-year risk level is roughly
equal to average (1.00), and its trailing 3-year and 5-year risk
levels were above average (1.16 and 1.09, respectively).






Over the past three years, the Zweig Fund has a "negative" Sharpe
ratio of 1.48, and a negative alpha score of 4.15.  That suggests
that Zweig and Lazar have basically failed to generate investment
results that are commensurate with the risk incurred.  A "7" bear
market decile suggests the fund hasn't done well in bear markets.

The result, a Morningstar 1-star rating for the trailing 5 years,
and 2-star rating for the trailing 10-year period.  So, taking in
account risk and cost, the Zweig Fund has not gotten the job done
for investors.

Conclusion

I was asked by one of our readers to look at the Zweig Fund as a
"competitor with Vanguard, Lipper, American Century, et al."  It
may offer a high yield today, but yield is just one piece of the
puzzle.  Looking at this fund on a "total return" basis relative
to its large-cap value closed-end fund peers, the Zweig Fund has
disappointed.  It is my opinion that there are better investment
options both in the closed-end world and the open-end fund world.

I shall tell you that my feelings are partly based on experience.
When I was director of pension investments for a large corporate
pension plan (1994-1999), our plan utilized the TAA (or tactical
asset allocation) services of Avatar Investors Associates, which
Marty Zweig serves/served as director of research.  After several
years of "poor" relative performance, I recommended and received
approval to fire Avatar.

In my opinion, the Zweig Fund belongs in the "avoid" category.

Steve Wagner
Editor, Mutual Investor
steve@mutualinvestor.com


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***********************
SWING TRADER GAME PLANS
***********************

The Trend Continues

The war rally lives. It did not appear that way this morning as
the Dow dropped to a triple digit loss. However, the bulls came in
and bought the dip and pushed to us higher through some
significant technical levels mid-day.


To read the rest of the Swing Trader Game Plan Click here:
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The Option Investor Newsletter                 THursday 03-20-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                        2 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

In Section Two:

Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: CAI
Daily Results
Call Play Updates: BCR, BVF, ERTS, MME, STN
New Calls Plays: BRL, MXIM
Put Play Updates: LLY
New Put Plays: NOC


****************
PICKS WE DROPPED
****************

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time.
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


CALLS:
*****

None


PUTS:
*****

CAI $32.71 +1.16 (+1.14) How's that for a delayed reaction.
Despite the strong rebound in the NASDAQ last week, shares of
CAI continued to languish, looking ripe for a breakdown under
the $30 level when we added it to the put list on Tuesday.
Alas, it wasn't to be, as the stock rebounded sharply from that
level yesterday and then broke out of its recent consolidation
to the upside on Thursday.  Fortunately, we had set an entry
trigger of $29.50 (which was never achieved), so we're going to
pull the plug tonight.  Since our trigger was never satisfied,
traders should not have entered the play, and therefore no harm
done.


***********************************************************
DAILY RESULTS
***********************************************************

Please view this in COURIER 10 font for alignment
*************************************************

CALLS              Mon    Tue    Wed   Thu  Week

BCR      62.35    1.29   1.31   0.30  0.95  Adding to gains
BRL      53.81    1.92  -1.03   0.72  1.00  New, relative highs
BVF      39.45    0.64  -0.09   0.20 -0.15  Waiting for $40
ERTS     58.95    2.11  -0.10   0.22  0.45  Approaching 200-dma
MME      38.53    1.76  -0.18   1.16 -0.36  Took a rest
MXIM     39.56    2.25   0.44  -0.03  0.00  New, Over $40
STN      21.21    0.70  -0.13   0.28  0.61  28% ?


PUTS

CAI      32.71   -0.83  -0.59  -1.25  1.16  Drop, untriggered
LLY      56.63    1.90   0.68   0.55 -0.17  Not going anywhere
NOC      84.95    1.77  -0.19  -0.20 -2.50  New, Party's over


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********************
PLAY UPDATES - CALLS
********************

BCR $62.35 +0.95 (+3.95) Momentum traders got their wish today,
as BCR continued its relentless march up the chart, helped along
by the persistently bullish broad markets.  We were looking for
a push through the $61.25 level to initiate new momentum-based
positions in our last update, and BCR obliged on Wednesday,
closing at a new 52-week high of $61.40.  Then the bulls got
serious on Thursday, propelling the stock through that level and
finally cresting the $62 level before once again closing very
near the high of the day.  BCR is moving up in a very aggressive
ascending channel right now, and it can't be expected to last
indefinitely.  Rather than continuing to chase the stock higher
from here, we're going to wait for the next pullback before
recommending new entries.  Look for a pullback and bounce near
the $60.60-61.00 area as a solid entry point, with the $60 level
being the last line of bullish defense.  We're raising our stop
to $59.75 tonight, as that is just below the top of Tuesday's
gap.

---

BVF $39.45 -0.15 (+0.39) While the rest of the market is grinding
higher, our BVF play seems to have fallen asleep.  Currently
stuck in the $39-40 area, the stock is working off its near-term
overbought condition, while waiting for the next upward push from
eager buyers.  While the price action this week is certainly less
than inspiring, we've got our eye on the 6-week ascending
trendline (currently $38), and expect it to provide support for
that next push up.  The $38 level is also significant historical
support (old resistance) and that's where bargain hunters will
want to lie in wait.  Any pullback near that level should find
eager buyers, and new entries on a rebound from there should be
favorable.  If looking for signs of a breakout before playing,
traders will want to focus on the $40.25 level.  This is just
above Tuesday's intraday high, and a trade above that level would
have the stock moving to new multi-month highs.  Below the
ascending trendline is the 20-dma at $37.29 and that will be the
bulls' last line of defense.  If they can't hold that level on
a more significant pullback, then we'll want to be out of the
play.  Accordingly, we're raising our stop to $37 tonight.

---

ERTS $58.95 +0.45 (+2.47) ERTS may have eased back from the sharp
gains seen late last week and earlier this week, but the bulls
have got to be pleased with the way the stock is continuing to
post higher intraday highs and lower intraday lows.  We suspected
it was going to be difficult to break through the $60 level, at
least on the first attempt.  With significant historical
resistance at that level, as well as the 200-dma at $60.03, a
pullback after the first test of that level would be expected.
So it is actually rather surprising that there wasn't more
weakness today after ERTS traded an intraday high of $59.72.  On
Balance Volume is continuing to rise, but daily Stochastics are
looking a bit toppy here.  Traders that entered the play at lower
levels would be prudent to harvest gains on another push near
the $60 level, waiting for the next pullback to re-enter the play
at a lower level.  We raised our stop to $56 earlier in the week,
and it has been encouraging to see intraday support begin to
build at a higher level, near $57.50.  Another rebound from that
area can be used to initiate new positions, but we're going to
avoid suggesting new momentum entries at this time.  Keep stops
set at $56.

---

MME $38.53 -0.36 (+2.53) It's been a rather bumpy road, but our
MME play continues to perform admirably in what is undoubtedly a
volatile market.  After rebounding again from just below the $36
level on Monday, the stock took off like a shot, propelled higher
along with the rest of the market.  It took until yesterday to
finally get through the $38 resistance level, but the buyers got
the job done, and on stronger than average volume too.
Thursday's session was another one of consolidation, with MME
posting an inside day.  The last pullback found strong support
just above the 20-dma (currently $36.29), and if this uptrend is
to continue, then that moving average will need to continue to
fulfill the role of support.  Aggressive traders can enter new
positions on an upside break of the inside day formation with a
trade above $39.20, while those with a more conservative risk
profile will want to take advantage of a dip and bounce in the
$37.00-37.50 area.  We're raising our stop to $36 tonight, just
below the 20-dma.

---

STN $21.21 +0.61 (+1.35 for the week)  STN followed through on
its breakthrough of the $20 resistance level that had been in
place for two years by adding another $1.21 on top of it. It
appears to be on its way toward the point and figure bullish
vertical count of $30, but let's not get too far ahead of
ourselves.  Our target on the play is a more conservative $25.
Traders will also note the reverse head and shoulders pattern
with the head just over $11 and the neckline right around $19.
That pattern would imply a move to $27 now that it has been
broken.  Without recent news, it appears that STN is following
the blueprint laid out during the first gulf war, when casino
stocks gained 28% in the month following the start of that
conflict. Other stocks in the sector have also been showing
impressive gains, with MGG adding $1.07 and moving into a gap and
MBG also gaining ground.  Both of those stocks have their 200-
dmas overhead, while STN passed its own back in September and
hasn't looked back.  New entries can look for a pullback to
support above $20, or target a momentum move above today's high
of $21.30.   We are raising our stop to $18.75, just below the
21-dma.


**************
NEW CALL PLAYS
**************

BRL - Barr Labs - $53.81 +1.00 (+3.18 for the week)

Company Summary:
Barr Laboratories, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company
engaged in the development, manufacture and marketing of generic
and proprietary pharmaceuticals.

Why We Like It:
Standard & Poor's estimates that generic drugs will grow at an
annually compounded rate of 11% over the next few years and could
eventually take in $18.5 billion in annual sales. Part of the
reason for the estimates is that the current administration has
made access to generic versions of expensive drugs a priority as
a way to reduce health costs. While the period of exclusivity for
such products is limited to six months, BRL made use of that
period to sell $311 million worth of their generic version of
Prozac last year.  While the profits from that substitute have
fallen dramatically since the exclusivity period ended, the
company just received permission to sell generic versions of
Shire Plc's attention deficit drug Adderall.  BRL is also
challenging Shire's patent protection for Adderall XR, which
accounted for $317 million of Shire's $27 million in sales from
the Adderall line of products. Barr will have six months of
exclusivity to sell generic versions of Adderall in three new
doses.

The stock had been testing the $53 level in mid-January, before
dropping into the $47 range in early February.  It has now
bounced and taken out those relative highs, reaching a high of
$54.45 intraday. The move above $54 was not only a breakout on
the daily charts, but also on the point and figure chart. The
stock has now broken out from a bullish pennant formation on that
chart, where it gave a buy signal at $53 and finds its next level
of resistance at $60. A look at the weekly chart shows the stock
bouncing from an ascending trend line begun in mid-October, when
it began setting a series of higher highs and higher lows. We
like entries at current levels, but if the stock experiences a
pullback after the recent gains in the broader markets, the most
profitable entries may come on a bounce from recent support at
$52, which also acted as resistance before the latest breakout.
Note the stock underwent a 3-for-2 stock split on March 18, but
has not yet shown any signs of post-split depression. We will
place our stop at $50.48, just below the converging 50 and 21-
dmas.  More conservative traders can set a stop just below that
recent support at $52, possibly at $51.50.

BUY CALL APR-50 *IOB-DJ OI=48 at $4.70 SL=2.35
BUY CALL APR-53  IOB-DY OI=352 at $2.40 SL=1.20
BUY CALL MAY-53  IOB-EY OI=1032 at $3.30 SL=1.65
BUY CALL MAY-55  IOB-EK OI=15 at $2.40 SL=1.20

Average Daily Volume = 965 K


---

MXIM – Maxim Integrated Products $39.56 +0.00 (+2.03 this week)

Company Summary:
MXIM designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad range
of linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits, commonly
referred to as analog circuits.  The company also provides a
range of high-frequency design processes and capabilities that
can be used in custom design.  MXIM's objective is to develop
and market both proprietary and industry-standard analog
integrated circuits that meet the increasingly stringent
quality standards demanded by customers.

Why We Like It:
With the war rally well underway, the NASDAQ is leading the way
on the upside, and leading the way in that area of the market is
the Semiconductor index (SOX.X).  In fact, both indices are now
solidly in the green for the year.  As of yet, there still isn't
a solid fundamental catalyst, although the better than expected
Book to Bill number released earlier this week certainly didn't
hurt.  The continuation of the rally this week pushed the SOX
through its 200-dma for the first time since last May and there
are some stocks in the sector that are looking downright bullish.
MXIM stands out as it has already had quite a run, up almost 20%
in a little over a week.  The stock is currently doing battle
with its 14-month descending trendline ($39.50) and a decisive
breakout here could usher in another strong upward surge.  Even
yesterday's Pacific Growth downgrade couldn't dampen investors'
appetite for the stock and it held firm again today.  Monday's
trade at $40 finally generated a new PnF Buy signal, and due to
the length of the column of X required to achieve that feat, the
bullish price target is at an astronomical $63.  Clearly, we
aren't going there anytime soon.  But that doesn't change the
very bullish picture being presented here.  There is the risk
that MXIM could still roll from the site of its descending
trendline, so we want to set a trigger for the play of $40.50,
just above Thursday's intraday high.  Aggressive traders can
enter the play on that breakout, while those with a more
cautious approach will want to wait for a pullback and rebound
from the $38.50-39.00 area before jumping aboard.  MXIM will
need to hold above its 10-dma ($37.02) to keep its bullish trend
intact on a more significant pullback, so we're initially
placing our stop at $37.  The $350 level will be pivotal for
the SOX to clear if MXIM is going to have some significant
upside from here, so traders that take the momentum entry will
want to watch the SOX for the confirmation of sector-wide
strength.

BUY CALL APR-40*XIQ-DH OI=2128 at $2.60 SL=1.25
BUY CALL APR-45 XIQ-DI OI= 571 at $0.85 SL=0.40
BUY CALL MAY-40 XIQ-EH OI=4246 at $3.70 SL=2.00
BUY CALL MAY-45 XIQ-EI OI=3255 at $1.70 SL=0.75

Average Daily Volume = 7.71 mln



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*******************
PLAY UPDATES - PUTS
*******************

LLY $56.63 -0.17 (+2.65) Following the selloff to the $53 area
last, shares of LLY have been struggling to move higher with the
broad market.  While the stock has managed to move higher with
the rest of the market, it has been an uphill battle, as the $57
level continues to provide formidable resistance.  Even with the
DRG index cresting its year-long descending trendline and
200-dma near the $296 level, the index hasn't been able to move
through the $300 level, which provided resistance earlier this
year.  LLY has managed to get through its 20-dma ($55.96), but
with daily Stochastics topping out in overbought territory, and
news in the sector as it relates to patent protection and product
development continuing to be bearish, we're betting that the $57
level is going to hold.  To be sure, in such a bullish market
environment, new bearish plays here are risky, but attractive on
a risk/reward basis.  We're still looking for a return to the
lows of last week and then a trip down to the $50 level.
Aggressive traders can take advantage of the recent strength to
enter new positions on a rollover near the $57 level, keeping
in mind that our stop is set at $57.10 (on a closing basis).
The more conservative approach will be to wait for a break back
under the $55 level before entering the play.


*************
NEW PUT PLAYS
*************

NOC - Northrup Grumman Corp. $84.95 -2.50 (+0.55 this week)

Company Summary:
Northrup Grumman is a defense company that provides products,
services and solutions in defense and commercial electronic,
systems integration, information technology and nuclear and
non-nuclear shipbuilding and systems.  NOC has operations in 44
states and 25 countries, serving United States and international
military, government and commercial customers.  In December 2002,
the company merged with TRW, a provider of technology products
and services for the aerospace, information systems and
automotive markets.  As a result, TRW became a wholly owned
subsidiary of NOC and in March 2003, the company sold the
automotive business of TRW, while retaining a 19.6% equity
interest.

Why We Like It:
The war rally may be well underway for the broad markets, but
from the looks of Thursday's action, it may already be over
for the Defense stocks.  While the Defense index (DFI.X) did
manage a respectable rebound from its recent all-time lows over
the past week, Thursday's rollover from the $460 level doesn't
look very encouraging for the bulls.  The selling was pretty
broad-based throughout the sector, as reports continue to
circulate that the Iraq war is unlikely to have an impact on
the businesses of the major defense contractors.  Leading the
way lower on Thursday were shares of NOC, serving up a 2.85%
decline after rolling over from the $88 resistance (former
support) level.  The PnF chart shows just how weak the stock is,
failing to generate even a single Buy signal since early
January, and that one turned out to be a head fake.  On its
pre-war decline, NOC actually achieved its bearish price target
of $79, and with selling coming back into the stock, we're
looking for that level to be revisited over the near-term,
especially if the war proceeds smoothly, keeping the DFI index
under pressure.  With fairly decent support at the $84 level
and resistance at $86, $87 and $88, we've got a little bit of
everything in terms of potential entry points.  The ideal entry
would come from a failed rally in the $86-87 area, but we do
have to contend with the possibility that NOC breaks down under
$84 and just keeps on going.  Momentum traders can target a drop
under $83.75 for new entries.  We're going to start with a
fairly wide stop at $88.25 to allow for a solid bounce and
failure, as a close above $88 would be a big warning sign that
the rollover that began today doesn't have the downside potential
we expect.  If entering on a failed rally, confirm sector
weakness with the DFI index rolling below the $465 level.  If
entering on a breakdown, look for the DFI index to confirm with
its own break under $443.

BUY PUT APR-85*NOC-PQ OI=2626 at $3.50 SL=1.75
BUY PUT APR-80 NOC-PP OI=1131 at $1.65 SL=0.75

Average Daily Volume = 1.43 mln



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The Option Investor Newsletter                 Thursday 03-20-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                        3 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

In Section Three:

Play of the Day: CALL - MXIM
Traders Corner: Keep A Paper Trail – Keep Your Profits
Traders Corner: Putting It All Together_3
Options 101: Does "Close" Count?

**********************
PLAY OF THE DAY - CALL
**********************

MXIM – Maxim Integrated Products $39.56 +0.00 (+2.03 this week)

Company Summary:
MXIM designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad range
of linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits, commonly
referred to as analog circuits.  The company also provides a
range of high-frequency design processes and capabilities that
can be used in custom design.  MXIM's objective is to develop
and market both proprietary and industry-standard analog
integrated circuits that meet the increasingly stringent
quality standards demanded by customers.

Why We Like It:
With the war rally well underway, the NASDAQ is leading the way
on the upside, and leading the way in that area of the market is
the Semiconductor index (SOX.X).  In fact, both indices are now
solidly in the green for the year.  As of yet, there still isn't
a solid fundamental catalyst, although the better than expected
Book to Bill number released earlier this week certainly didn't
hurt.  The continuation of the rally this week pushed the SOX
through its 200-dma for the first time since last May and there
are some stocks in the sector that are looking downright bullish.
MXIM stands out as it has already had quite a run, up almost 20%
in a little over a week.  The stock is currently doing battle
with its 14-month descending trendline ($39.50) and a decisive
breakout here could usher in another strong upward surge.  Even
yesterday's Pacific Growth downgrade couldn't dampen investors'
appetite for the stock and it held firm again today.  Monday's
trade at $40 finally generated a new PnF Buy signal, and due to
the length of the column of X required to achieve that feat, the
bullish price target is at an astronomical $63.  Clearly, we
aren't going there anytime soon.  But that doesn't change the
very bullish picture being presented here.  There is the risk
that MXIM could still roll from the site of its descending
trendline, so we want to set a trigger for the play of $40.50,
just above Thursday's intraday high.  Aggressive traders can
enter the play on that breakout, while those with a more
cautious approach will want to wait for a pullback and rebound
from the $38.50-39.00 area before jumping aboard.  MXIM will
need to hold above its 10-dma ($37.02) to keep its bullish trend
intact on a more significant pullback, so we're initially
placing our stop at $37.  The $350 level will be pivotal for
the SOX to clear if MXIM is going to have some significant
upside from here, so traders that take the momentum entry will
want to watch the SOX for the confirmation of sector-wide
strength.

BUY CALL APR-40*XIQ-DH OI=2128 at $2.60 SL=1.25
BUY CALL APR-45 XIQ-DI OI= 571 at $0.85 SL=0.40
BUY CALL MAY-40 XIQ-EH OI=4246 at $3.70 SL=2.00
BUY CALL MAY-45 XIQ-EI OI=3255 at $1.70 SL=0.75

Average Daily Volume = 7.71 mln



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**************
TRADERS CORNER
**************

Keep A Paper Trail – Keep Your Profits
By Mike Parnos, Investing With Attitude

Does Saddam Hussein wear glasses?  That’s the question of the
day.  Considering the bar isn’t set very high for our
government’s intelligence network, Saddam probably put on one of
those Groucho disguises -- confident that we’d never figure it
out.

It’s been said that Saddam has recruited a dozen look-alikes to
confuse our agents.  How would you like to have that on your
resume? Or, possibly, on your tombstone.  Three would have been
plenty.

Well, we may not be able to keep track of Saddam Hussein or Osama
Bin Laden or even Jimmy Hoffa for that matter, but we can keep
track of our trades.
___________________________________________________________

An IRS Agent’s Dream Come True
Over the years, through necessity more than anything else, I
devised a spreadsheet on which to keep track of my trades.  It
has all the gory details of every trade I make during the year.
It’s what an IRS agent dreams about – somewhere between the
bondage and winning the lottery dreams.

The spreadsheet, hopefully pictured below, shows everything,
including date of purchase and sale, the kind of equity or
option, the number of shares or contracts, the total amount
credited and debited, the profit of the specific trade, a year-
to-date profit figure as well as the strategy used.




At a glance you can see what strategies have worked well for you
and which ones have not.  If you’re using the strategy checklists
I’ve put together, you can compare the results with your reasons
for entering the trade.  You can see if you generated the most
profit (or limited a loss) that you could out of the trade.  It
will help define the areas of your trading that need work.  For
those wise CPTI students whom are paper trading, this is also an
ideal learning tool.

If you’re a CPTI trader, you aren’t constantly jumping in and out
of positions, so you won’t require that many sheets.  However, if
you’re doing Iron Condors, you’ll use four lines because there
are four options involved in the two-spread strategy.  A Straddle
would require two lines, etc.

This spreadsheet was set up in Microsoft Excel.  Drop me a note
and I’ll be glad to send you the spreadsheet.  Within the
spreadsheet, there are a few formulas for adding various columns,
etc.  Will they transfer when I send you the spreadsheet?  Hell
if I know.  You’re asking the wrong guy.  I haven’t even figured
out toasters yet.

Deductive Reasoning Equals Deductions
Fact:  For every dollar you save, that’s about $1.50 you don’t
have to earn to replace it.

It’s similar when it comes to tax deductions.  If you don’t take
all the deductions you’re entitled to, you’re giving more money
to the government than necessary.  Depending on your bracket, for
every dollar you don’t take as a deduction, you’re giving away
$.35-.40.  Let me put it in terms CPTI students will understand.
For every $30 of deductions you overlook, that’s a large pizza
with two toppings being eaten by a government employee instead of
you.

For Those Of You Who Have Trading Profits
Now, don’t get greedy.  You don’t want to send up red flags.
That’s all you need -- an IRS agent with a flashlight and a
magnifying glass giving your life a body cavity search looking
for hidden profits or unjustified deductions.

Here are some items you might consider for deductions.  Computer
equipment purchase, new office furniture, financial magazines,
your OI subscription, quote service, charting services, your
cable modem charges, software for your spreadsheet program,
office supplies, and, don’t forget, at least 25% of your liquor
bill.
___________________________________________________________

Sunday Preview
It’s that time of the month again.  We’re going to see how this
month’s CPTI portfolio performed and put on some new positions
for the April option cycle.  Should be interesting.
___________________________________________________________

CPTI Portfolio Update
Position #1 – OEX Bull Put Spread – Trading at $445.79.
Believing the market is not likely to go down to retest its July
and October lows near 400, we sold 10 contracts of the OEX March
400 puts and bought 10 contracts of the OEX March 390 puts for a
credit of $1,400.

If war breaks out, it might be a quickie.  The market may spike
up – which it did.  How high?  It looks like about 800 DOW
points.  Who knows?  That’s why we didn’t put a bear call spread
on top to create an Iron Condor.  The OEX tested the 400 level,
but bounced up nicely.  With a day to go, we’re just fine.  If
you need any more trading maintenance dollars, you could buy back
the March $400 put for a nickel and release the $10,000 that was
being held against the bull put spread.
____________________________________________________________

Position #2 – XAU Iron Condor – Trading at $64.65.
We created an Iron Condor with a 15-point range $65 to $80 for
March.  We were able to place spread orders and take in $1,400
for our 10-contract position.  The objective is for the
underlying, at expiration, to finish anywhere within the spread.

We closed this position early because XAU broke down through
support. We still managed at small $400 profit.  For traders who
didn’t close the position, XAU has peeked back up above the sold
strike and has been hovering around the $65 strike.  With only
one day to go we’re down to the short hairs – and this trade has
turned the short hairs gray!  Look for the market makers to do
whatever they can to keep XAU as close to $65 as they can.
_________________________________________________________________

Position #3 -- OIH -- Diagonal Calendar Spread – Trading at
$56.97.
We thought that there was about $8-10 of uncertainty built into
the price of a barrel of oil.  When, and if, the war is resolved,
the price of oil should work its way down, along with the price
of oil stocks.

We bought 10 contracts of the July OIH $55 puts and sold 10
contracts of the March OIH $50 put at a debit of $3.85.  With
March expiration upon us, our $50 put is essentially worthless.

This is why I don’t like directional trading.  There we were,
last Friday, sitting with $1.00 profit and OIH seemingly on its
way down – which would have generated substantially more profit.
Did I make the typical trader’s blunder by not just taking a
profit while it was there?  Maybe so.

The price of oil has, as we predicted, tumbled.  Then, why the
hell haven’t the stocks in the OIH tumbled as well?
____________________________________________________________

Position #4 -- QQQ ITM Strangle – Currently trading at $26.80.
This is a long-term position we created four months ago.  We own
the January 2005 $21 LEAPS calls and the January 2005 $29 LEAPS
puts.  We sold 10 contracts of the QQQ April $28 the QQQ April
$22.  We moved our short sells in by one point because a lot of
premium has disappeared from the QQQs in the last two months.  If
the market continues its move up, we’ll watch the deltas on our
$28 calls.
____________________________________________________________

Position #5 – MMM Iron Condor – Currently trading at $130.61.
We created an Iron Condor with a 15-point range $115 to $130 for
April.  We were able to take in $1,550 for our 10-contract
position.  The objective is for the underlying, at expiration, to
finish anywhere within the spread.

With the pre-war market run-up, MMM today violated the $130
strike call.  Hopefully, some profit-takers will enter the market
to bring MMM’s price down and give us a little breathing room.
The resistance around $130 is substantial.  Will it hold for
another month?  I still like our chances, but we’ll keep a
watchful eye on it.
____________________________________________________________

Note:  Because I’m out of town, I won’t be able to respond to
emails until Wednesday.
________________________________________________________________

Happy trading! Remember the CPTI credo: May our remote batteries
and self-discipline last forever, but mierde happens. Be
prepared! In trading, as in life, it's not the cards we're dealt.
It's how we play them.

Your questions and comments are always welcome.
Mike Parnos
CPTI Instructor


**************
TRADERS CORNER
**************

Putting It All Together_3
By Leigh Stevens
lstevens@OptionInvestor.com

Using the most recent price/indicator action of two key indexes,
the S&P 100 (OEX) and the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock (QQQ), I'll
point out past and current price/oscillator divergences,
support/resistance forecasting and use of my sentiment indicator.
This in terms of what you can go through in an analysis process
that I have found "works" for the indexes to keep in a trend or
to get ready for (trend) reversals.

What I tend to look at first is for any obvious chart patterns,
such as trendlines and trend channels, breakouts above/below
prior swing highs or lows and the support/resistance implied by
those patterns - also, any support and resistance areas implied
by moving averages and the fibonacci retracements of the last big
price swing.

The only obvious point to look for resistance in my mind in this
first OEX chart of the hourly bar chart is the fibonacci 62%
retracement level of the recent low to the prior significant
high.  On the support side, because the OEX cleared prior
multiple highs at 432, I assume there may now be support or
buying interest at the prior high - resistance once broken tends
to "become" support as traders still short at 432 will cover.





What makes me suspect the above OEX hourly picture may be shaping
up to correct is the bearish hourly price and stochastic
divergence.  This shows up especially on the 5-period (hourly)
stochastic - divergences don't always show up best on the
stochastic indicator  and I tend to use to single point RSI
(Relative Strength Index) indicator most - but, SOMETIMES the
stochastic model shows a divergence which is significant to ward
of a trend correction.  The OEX here has gone on to higher highs,
whereas the Stochastic models are either making a series of lower
relative highs (5,3,3) or going sideways as is the case with the
21-period (hourly in this case).

What is so valuable in divergences is that they so often DO
signal upcoming trend corrections - at least suggesting, in this
case, to take profits on long calls as the risk of a corrections
is GREATER than the probability of a further run up. However, the
further above a 62% retracement that the index goes, the greater
is the likelihood of a 100 retracement, or what I call a round
trip move.  (And, a round trip retracement - especially when the
Index gets overbought leads to a great likelihood of a double
top.)

On corrections - there are 2 types - one is a significant PRICE
correction or reversal, where prices retrace anywhere from 38 to
50 to around 62% of the prior move.  The other kind of correction
is a "TIME" correction where prices mostly go sideways and the
oscillator indicator goes back down and "throws off" the extreme.
More on oscillator divergences at -
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/traderscorner/080102_1.asp
and -
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/traderscorner/072502_1.asp

Now there is another possibility in the chart pattern - whether
it is significant that the OEX has broken out above the implied
upper end of its trend channel per the chart BELOW - sometimes
price channels are significant, sometimes now.  I couldn't give
the odds, but its of far LESS significance than divergences.





The above chart takes in more time in hourly trading - a 100
days, on close only basis (line chart).  You'll note that the
bottom line - the trendline that has 3 or more points - is an
INTERNAL trendline, so it "cuts through" the 1 downward spike.
An internal trendline connects the MOST number of swing lows or
highs whereas a conventional trendline connects only the
extremes.

In the real world of trading, internal trendlines often work the
best in my experience - certainly, drawing trendlines can be more
art than mechanical method.

NEXT, I tend to look at a bigger picture view and at daily moving
averages - or go from the daily to the hourly - anyway, back and
forth (also, checking the weekly chart). The 21-day moving is
often very significant in trading the indexes.

Note how recent highs stopped right in the area of this key
trading average.  But when the OEX had a decisive upward
penetration of this average, there, a good-sized move has
followed.  Moreover, the rally took out the prior downswing low -
taking out potential resistance.





ENVELOPE lines or moving average envelopes are set in relation to
some moving average.  The S&P has been tending either to top or
bottom at 6% above or below the 21-day average OR just slow down
its trend momentum and "hug" the envelope line per the example of
some the prior declines.  However, prices this far above/below
the moving average puts you on alert for a possible trend
reversal - at least you can figure you have gotten already the
best part of the move.

The 6% envelope implies resistance and a possible place to buy
puts at and above 452. However, if prices get to this area and
don't fall back much and only mostly consolidate sideways, I look
at the possibility for a retracement back to the 475 area which
then might set up a double top.

[Technical analysis is an ongoing process of assessing the trend
- versus fundamental analysis where, for example, you might have
a fixed view that the lack of consumer and business confidence
will continue to cause a weak economy and you are bearish on the
dominant trend.]

SECONDLY I point out price/oscillator divergences noted above.
Two bullish divergences show up on the RSI, whereas one bearish
divergence signaled a top when the Stochastic diverged from price
action.  Note the commentaries on the chart. We have no current
divergences showing up on the daily chart above.

LAST but not least on the OEX is further consideration of other
key moving averages, especially the 50 and 200-day. Tough
resistance may come in at 433, as it did one the two other
occasions noted with the 2 prior down (red) arrows at that line.

The other big consideration I have with the S&P is what is
happening with my trading "sentiment" indicator of CBOE daily
equity call volume versus put volume.  This indicator, where I
enter the figures daily to keep it up - no place else to "get"
this figure that way I keep it - is shown at the bottom of the
OEX chart below.

"Major" signals are when both the daily readings get extreme but
also a 5-day moving average of it also. Or, it may be the case
when there are multiple single day readings.  The limitations of
this indicator is that you then have to pin down the variable
number of days ahead BEFORE the trend reverses.

As noted on the chart below the "lead time" is less at tops in a
bear market.  The bottoms take longer to set up.  But, in either
case you can usually assume that a reversal to the trend is
coming and it will be a SUBTANTIAL move most likely.





Now, one variation of "sentiment" here is noted in the circle
with the cyan or blue fill - here, there were some high bullish
sentiment readings (2 times more equities call volume than put
volume) occurred AFTER the top - this is where you can figure
that the index is going to have a another down "leg" as traders
are fighting the decline so to speak.

Hard to believe folks but the majority view is usually WRONG in
the stock market - kind of perverse that way!

QQQ, in the next chart (hourly) has a prior recent bearish hourly
price/RSI divergence - not a current one - highlighted below, as
well as indicating the bullish divergence at the Feb. bottom:





Price resistance above is well-defined in the area of the cluster
of prior hourly closing highs.  Support around 25.2 is suggested
by the "line" of prior tops - resistance, once broken tending to
"become" new support.

The idea that prior support levels become resistance and vice
versa (prior resistance highs becoming support later on), also
can apply to trendlines.  I assume that not only the prior
resistance indicated at 25.4 may be support on a pullback, but
that lower support around 24.7 at the previously broken down
trendline, may the lower part of a support zone.

Of course the possibility of a reversal at the QQQ prior top
around 27.7 is what is leading me to calculate what might be
support if the Q's pull back from this recent high.  Above this
area potentially stronger resistance comes in at the higher peaks
at 28.3 - 28.8.





You can usually assume, until the market proves otherwise, that
the areas where selling occurred heavily before will bring in at
least profit-taking selling again.

The overall list of my prior Trader's Corner articles (in
alphabetical order) and my technical "checklist" is at -
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/traderscorner/tc_022703_2.asp


***********
OPTIONS 101
***********

Does "Close" Count?
Buzz Lynn
buzz@OptionInvestor.com

"Only in horse shoes and government work", might come the answer.
But what about analysts?  Do they ever hit their mark?

Fundamentals Guy was pouring over some trade publications still
received from his past life in the commercial real estate business
- shopping center sales and leasing, to be exact.  What struck me
was the similar number of downgrades made to various retail chains
compared to the number of upgrades.  In the heyday of the equities
bubble, we had to search high and low, then in a haystack for the
proverbial needle of Downgrade in which to pop the bubble.  In
other words, analysts NEVER downgraded stocks back then and the
field was heavily loaded with Upgrades.

But now, at least by the ratings I read for the month of January,
Upgrade quantities roughly equaled Downgrade quantities, at least
amongst the retailers whom I used to follow closely.  I wondered
why since I figured Downgrades were a taboo among the analysts at
large.

First, a couple of details to give us all a flavor of what we're
talking about.  During the month of January, there were 54 rating
changes - either Upgrade or Downgrade - in the retail sector, 24
of which were Downgrades.  Doing the math, 30 were upgrades.  Yes,
the figures are still skewed toward Upgrades, but no longer the
lop-sided field it use to be.

Companies getting an upgrade during January included 99 Cents
Stores, Abercrombie and Fitch (2 upgrades), Amazon.com (yes, the
shopping center business now considers Amazon a retailer),
American Eagle Outfitters, Bebe Stores (4 upgrades), Best Buy
(Warrant Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed heavy buying in
October through December, 2002), BJ's Wholesale, Chico's (3
upgrades), Costco, Dillard's, Dollar Tree, Duane Reade,
Friedman's, Gymboree, Michael's (2 upgrades), Movie Gallery,
Radioshack (2 upgrades), Talbot's, Target, The Gap, Wet Seal, and
Wild Oates

Downgraded companies included Bed Bath & Beyond, Border's, Duane
Reade, Federated Department Stores (2 downgrades), Gart Sports,
Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (A&P Markets), Gymboree,
Haverty Furniture, Hibbett Sporting Goods, Home Depot (2
downgrades), Lowe's, Pacific Sunwear, Restoration Hardware, Ross
Stores, Saks (2 downgrades), Too Inc., Urban Outfitters, Wet Seal
(2 downgrades), Whole Foods, and Williams-Sonoma.

It's interesting to note that Duane Reade, Gymboree, and Wet Seal
were all upgraded or downgraded, both, by different firms during
the same period, and sometimes on the exact same day.  Some days,
you feel like a nut; sometimes you don't!  Anyway, I guess that's
why there are chocolate and vanilla - we get to choose our
favorite - upgrades from some; downgrades from others.

Forget the specifics though of which companies received what
rating change.  That really doesn't matter.  The big picture is
that analysts were not afraid to hand out downgrades any longer.
There seems to be no fear or trepidation about doing so.  That
seemed odd to me.

Then I stopped to think a bit about what might cause such a
seeming anomaly.

DUH!  In the old days, Upgrades meant job promotions, fat bonuses,
and your children being accepted to exclusive schools.  Just ask
defrocked telecom analyst, Jack Grubman!  All those benefits
inured to Jack and others because their well-timed upgrade, which
was placed to goose the price of the stock, meant juicy
underwriting fees to the firm - fees said analyst got a piece of -
for a supposedly unbiased (hack, sputter) analysis of the stock in
question.  The logical conclusion was that analysts NEVER issue a
downgrade (or do so very quietly where and when the fewest will
notice) when they are trying to woo business.  It looks bad for
the firm and they'll go hungry because they will be out of a jobs.
Just common sense, really

In a nutshell, and just like any other sales endeavor in life, the
higher the gross proceeds of the underwriting, the more money the
seller (aka underwriter/broker) gets to keep.  As an analyst of
said underwriting firm, a favorable rating was a part of the sales
pitch to get the underwriting business, a part of which would go
back in your pocket if they, in fact, successfully got the
business.

Frankly, with a lack of a "Chinese Wall" at many brokerage firms
separating analysts from underwriting divisions, it paid to be
unscrupulous.  To put it bluntly, nobody buys stock on a downgrade
and thus brokerage commissions to the firm diminish.  Downgrade a
stock?  Decrease the firm's income.  Lose your job.

Perhaps that is no longer as much the case as it use to be.  I
can't think of the last time a new company went public, let alone
went public with a lot of hype and astro-projection behind it.  It
appears that the underwriting business has all but dried up.  I
don't suppose that comes as a surprise to anyone, given the
decline in overall equity values over the past three years.  If
the public is in a mood to sell equities, there sure isn't anybody
lining up to buy the new or secondary issues, hence dried up
underwriting market.

The fact is, the market has changed dramatically.  Nowadays, for
any analyst on Wall Street, there is no bonus. . .that is unless
keeping your job is actually the bonus, which to some, it might
be.  I imagine that if I were an analyst and my underwriting
overrides had gone away, I'd be looking for another way to make
money in a different facet of the same business, instead of
issuing fraudulent upgrades in hopes of winning business that no
longer exists.  To that end, I'd be faced with the reality that I
better start doing some real analysis, issue some real ratings,
and hope I'm right.  In other words, I'd seek to sell some honest
analysis work instead of trading favors with the underwriting
department.  They are out of work.  I can still have work if I
choose to straighten up and fly right.

Personally, I think that's exactly what's happened.  I'm not
saying every analyst has all of a sudden sprouted a new golden
halo, but the fact that Upgrades have been reduced and Downgrades
have grown more commonplace tells me that there is no longer the
negative stigma attached to issuing downgrades.

Sure, it's not a desirable thing to do.  But there is no longer
punishment for analysts or their firms in the form of cancelled
underwriting contracts.  Very few of those seeking to be
underwritten are actually "underwrite-able".  About the only
punishment they can offer in response to an analyst downgrade is
the childhood equivalent of someone telling your mom that you are
being mean to them.  Sooner or later, everyone is mean to someone,
especially on Wall Street.  And on Wall Street, mean comes with
the territory.

Still, commissions drive the business and the objective is to get
people to buy stocks.  That will never go away.  But it is
heartening to see that analysts are slightly more compelled now to
issue more honest ratings (in the form of an unashamed Downgrade)
than to continue foisting total books of fiction about how the
Next Big Thing (Cabbage Patch Doll Adoption Agency?) is going to
make us all billionaires.

The system isn't perfect.  It never has been and never will be.
But it's far better now than the depths three years ago from which
it has crawled.  I'm not suggesting that from here on out we take
every analyst's rating change as the gospel, but both upgrades and
downgrades are probably much more unbiased in their arrival than
they use to be.

Until next time, make a great week for yourselves!

Buzz


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