The Option Investor Newsletter Monday 05-05-2003 Copyright 2003, All rights reserved. 1 of 2 Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited. In Section One: Wrap: Mixed Monday Futures Wrap: Negative Confirmation? Index Trader Wrap: NASDAQ Composite comes within a "frog's hair" of December high Weekly Fund Wrap: Stock Market Advance Continues Traders Corner: The Case For Futures Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com ******************************************************************* MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ******************************************************************* 05-05-2003 High Low Volume Advance/Decl DJIA 8531.57 - 51.11 8601.94 8511.11 1747 mln 1590/1259 NASDAQ 1504.04 + 1.16 1519.70 1502.66 1872 mln 1782/1325 S&P 100 469.29 - 2.58 473.72 468.79 totals 3372/2584 S&P 500 926.55 - 3.53 933.88 924.55 RUS 2000 409.80 + 2.13 410.18 407.67 DJ TRANS 2460.80 + 12.75 2477.29 2459.94 VIX 23.24 - 0.37 24.13 23.06 VIXN 31.69 - 0.67 32.77 31.33 Put/Call Ratio 0.73 ******************************************************************* Mixed Monday by James Brown It was a day of rest for the markets on Monday. The bulls' push higher in Friday's trading took so much energy that the big name market averages all paused or slipped backwards. The Dow Jones Industrials ended the session with a 51-point loss but managed to close above previous resistance of 8525. The NASDAQ Composite did rally higher intraday and traded near the 1520 level twice before falling back towards the close. The S&P 500 index merely consolidated sideways with a little bit of profit taking and two bounces at the 925 level. Chart of the Dow Jones Industrials Chart of the NASDAQ Composite Foreign Exchanges Lack of any significant earnings or economic news coupled with traders waiting to hear from the FOMC tomorrow held the U.S. markets on hold. Meanwhile, overseas exchanges traded up on Monday in response to the breakout in American indices last Friday. The London FTSE 100 jumped 1.87% or 75 points to 3952. The German DAX 30 added almost 1% or 27 points to 3013. Even the French CAC 40 rallied 1.12% or 33 points to 2996. Ignoring new cases of SARS or celebrating the small number of new infections over the weekend was the Chinese Hang Seng index, which rose 108 points or 1.23% to 8916. Japan's NIKKEI 225 index followed suit with nearly a 44-point gain to 7907 and the Singapore Strait Times outperformed them all with a 2% gain to 1325. Sector Results Back home the headline numbers don't tell the whole story. Overall market internals looked pretty good. The INDU and the SPX may have ended in the red but most major market sector indices were green on Monday. Exceptions to this rule was the $FPP Forest & Paper Product sector, down 1%. The DFI and DFX defense sector indices were both down only 1 point. This was probably due to small red candles on BA, LMT and NOC, of which NOC actually affirmed its profit targets for 2003 before the bell this morning. Also closing in the red were the BIX and BKX banking indices, both down less than 1%. These two financial indices had broken out above tough resistance on Friday and the pull back today merely looked like some profit taking. The BIX remains above resistance at 290 and the BKX remains above resistance at 800. Considering how much of the S&P 500 is comprised of financial stocks the three and a half points lost on the SPX is not bad. Market Internals The U.S. exchanges advance-decline ratio was positive. The NYSE saw almost 16 advancers for every 12 decliners. The NASDAQ witnessed nearly 18 advancing stocks for each 13 decliners. New 52-week highs appear unbeatable. They have continued to pummel new 52-week lows and Monday was no exception with 350 new highs and only 34 new lows. Overall volume was 1.7 billion on the NYSE and 1.87 billion on the NASDAQ. More importantly, up volume on the NYSE was 996M to 728M in down volume. The NASDAQ fared better with 1,267M in up volume over 587M in down. Mixed Economic Signals The economic calendar this week is a lot more open that last week's reporting but Wall Street remains eager (or apprehensive) about each report. Today's results were a bit mixed. The most significant was the ISM non-manufacturing index or the services index. The service sector makes up a huge 85 percent of the U.S. economy. Yet surprisingly most economists still put more weight in last week's manufacturing report, which is older and more tested indicator. Last month (March) the ISM came in at 47.9. Estimates for April were 48.7. Numbers under 50 mean the sector is contracting and over 50 it is expanding. The quick end to the Iraqi conflict appears to have helped push the ISM number for April to a surprising 50.7. This is great news and reflects the huge jump in consumer confidence seen last week as well. Contrasting this bit of good news was the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report. This private research group has been measuring planned layoffs in the U.S. Today's numbers showed a 71% jump in management's desire to trim their payrolls. Remember, these are planned layoffs, not actual firings, and they could be carried out over time or through early retirements. However, March's planned layoff number was 85,396. April's report revealed that businesses had planned for 146,399 layoffs. The job market is already a weak spot in the economy and this doesn't offer any encouragement. The Fed Of course the big economic "report" this week that everyone will be watching is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting tomorrow. Alan & Company will once again be expected to share their opinion on the economy and the overall risks to economic growth. Last time the Fed met together they actually chose to pass claiming that the war's affect on the economic climate had caused too much interference and they would have to wait and share their opinion later. Well, this is "later" and Wall Street doesn't want to hear how Greenspan can't "full categorize" any risks to the economy. Once again the markets look to Alan for succor and woe to the bulls should he disappoint. While almost no one expects the Fed to lower rates tomorrow many are expecting to hear the FOMC change to an easing bias. The Dollar Speaking of green one cannot ignore the failing U.S. greenback. Monday's trading session saw the dollar fall to a four-year low against the euro. The intraday "low" for the dollar was $1.13 per Euro before falling to $1.129. The dollar hasn't been this weak against the euro since February 1999. Foreign investors' faith in the U.S. appears to be failing under the growing shadow of our trade deficit. If the economy doesn't start to pick up steam soon this sell-off in the dollar will only get worse. Newsworthy It has been no secret on Wall Street that Barry Diller's USA Interactive (USAI) has had acquisitions plans. I believe it was only 12 to 18 months ago that analysts uncovered USAI's plan to spend up to two billion in acquisitions. I've haven't been keeping track of the dollar amounts but we do know USAI has recently agreed to buy Expedia (EXPE) and Hotels.com (ROOM), both online travel-related services. Today's merger news that USAI would buy Lending Tree (TREE), the online mortgage lender, is a bold step into the financial services and real estate sectors. Diller must feel pretty strongly about it as USAI is offering a stock-for-stock deal worth $734 million. Shares of TREE jumped 41 percent to $20.71 by the close. Tomorrow Tuesday will see some more big earnings announcements. Leading the pack will be networking giant, Cisco Systems (CSCO). In the software sector we'll see Electronic Arts (ERTS). For the insurance-financial sector it will be Prudential (PRU). The consumables candidate will be Gillette (G). Of course the big focus will be on the Fed meeting. Don't expect a lot of action until the interest rate decision is known. Let's hope that Alan has been able to clear up the reception on his crystal ball. ************ FUTURES WRAP ************ Negative Confirmation? by Jim Brown 05-05-2003 High Low DJIA 8531.57 - 51.11 8601.94 8511.11 NASDAQ 1504.04 + 1.16 1519.70 1502.66 S&P 500 926.55 - 3.53 933.88 924.55 NDX 1136.26 - 0.25 1152.96 1132.99 ES03M 926.25 - 1.25 933.50 923.50 YM03M 8518.00 - 26.00 8591.00 8484.00 NQ03M 1138.00 - 1.00 1155.50 1134.50 Daily Pivots (rounded to nearest point) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 DJIA 8639 8585 8548 8494 8457 COMPX 1526 1515 1509 1498 1492 ES03M 938 932 928 922 918 YQ03M 8638 8578 8531 8471 8424 NQ03M 1164 1151 1143 1130 1122 Was today confirmation, negative confirmation of simply indecision? After last week's gains and the breakout to new relative highs on Friday the indexes needed to extend their gains on heavy volume to confirm the up move. The NYSE traded less volume than it did on Friday and the up/down volume was almost even. The Nasdaq traded 1.88 billion shares but it was only 23 million more than Friday. The up/down volume was 2:1 to advancers. Neither of these showed any confirmation but they did not indicate any serious selling either. I see serious indecision at these higher levels more than any specific direction. The Dow rallied to try and touch the downtrend from Dec-2nd at 8600 three times but was only successful once. The -50 point drop is not that important as profit taking before the Fed meeting on Tuesday could be the primary motive. The index is trading at the top of its uptrend channel and could easily trade down to 8450 without breaking the longer term uptrend. Dow Chart - Daily The Nasdaq was the star performer but there was a high profile failure at strong resistance near the Dec-2nd 1521 high. The index rallied to +16 intraday before slipping to close flat. The Nasdaq could suffer on Tuesday from the JDEC warning on Monday after the bell and the CSCO earnings on Tuesday night. CSCO is expected to do well and have positive guidance which sets the potential for a negative market reaction if they don't follow through. There is a lot of profit in the tech sector and there is the potential for some selling prior to the Fed announcement at 2:15. You would hate to be a fund manager with hefty profits and have some negative guidance from the Fed knock you back to last month. The Nasdaq has support at 1450 and we could easily trade there without breaking the current uptrend. Nasdaq Chart - Daily The ES futures struggled all day with trying to break out of its uptrend channel. The contract high at 935 and resistance at 932 proved too much to overcome. The ES did not however sell off. It closed flat at 926 and appeared weak. Intraday support from Friday was 924 and Monday's Pivot was 923. These levels provided support and that support held. The ES could trade down to 912 without breaking the current uptrend. To break out on the upside the Nasdaq would have to break 1521 and the Dow 8600. This is sizeable resistance. ES03M Chart - 120 min The Nasdaq futures retested their uptrend resistance at 1155 and failed with a drop back to 1138 at the close. The NQ is very extended in this current move and could easily drop back to 1100 to rest. The JDEC and CSCO news will pressure the NQ on Tuesday. NQ03M - 240 min (Qcharts problem with daily) The Dow futures topped at 8591, just short of the psychological 8600 level. The downtrend from November at 8650 will be the next problem should 8600 be broken. The most likely retest will be the support at 8400. This is the bottom of the uptrend channel and the spot the bulls will most likely feel more confident about buying the rally. TM03M Chart - Daily There are two major problems for the markets on Tuesday. The first is the FOMC meeting which concludes at 2:15. The Fed is not expected to make any change in interest rates but their guidance could be critical. The Fed heads have been saying positive things in speeches but mostly geared to the 4Q and into 2004. If that continues to be the "official" stand then we could see some cooling in the markets. There is a remote possibility that they could cut based on the 3rd straight month of job losses which normally produces rate cuts. The Fed Fund Futures is only showing about an 18% chance of this happening. The second problem is Cisco, which announces earnings after the close. Cisco has been making positive noises as well so they are expected to beat and/or raise guidance. If they do not say positive things in the earnings guidance there is the potential for a sell off. The good news is already baked in the cake. For Tuesday I would look to stay short under 923 and long over that level. This was the key support and Pivot on Monday and remains a key level on Tuesday. See you in the Futures Monitor on Tuesday! Jim Brown ******************** INDEX TRADER SUMMARY ******************** NASDAQ Composite comes within a "frog's hair" of December high One of the more "exciting" technicals in play today was to see if bulls could push the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,504.04 +0.07%, or the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,136.26 -0.02% hopping to, or above their December relative highs and give a major index a "first" new relative high after a higher low, but bulls came within a "frog's hair" of such a trade, as the very broad NASDAQ-Composite came up short (by 1.74 points) to near its session lows. Traders were active again today, especially at the NASDAQ. NASDAQ volumes reached the 1.88 billion-share mark, which outpaced Friday's 1.82 billion, both marking volume levels not seen this year. NASDAQ internals finished the session positive with advancers outnumbering decliners by an 18 to 13 margin, while 220 four and five-lettered stocks traded new 52-week high compares to 23 stocks being sold to new lows. Friday's breadth for this category was 210:16. I don't know about you, but after tracking some of these internals for the past couple of months, my best impression today would have been that of a Russian weight lifter trying to squat 1,500 lbs, his face red, and jugular vein protruding from the side of his neck as he looked to press the weight to a complete lift. While the NASDAQ was able to turn a higher rate of volume that in Friday's trade, the NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 5,207 +0.11% turned a growingly steady 1.4 billions share, but didn't exceed its 1.52 billion shares traded from Friday (highest levels this year have been 1.78 billion and 1.79 billion on 01/30/03 and 03/21/03 respective). Advancer outpaced decliners by an 18 to 13 margin, while new highs reached a new peak at 191 compares to 18 stocks trading new lows. Friday's new high / new low showed 191 stocks having traded new 52-week high, compared to just 4 stocks having traded new lows. While not certain, I don't remember that even during the great bull market of the late 1990's that we would have only seen 4 new lows in the NYSE on any given day! I've learned to not OVERLY-trade a "gut feel," by my gut is turning a bit after today's trade with such impressive volume build, such BULLISHness from the new highs/new lows. This market is definitely BULLISH, but I may well have to think.... "too bullish." Today's a great day to simply look at the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,504.04 +0.07% as it came soooooo close to trading its December high. There's just over 3,000 stocks listed on the NASDAQ and while it is easier to control and move around the NASDAQ-100 (just 100 stocks) it remarkable that the NASDAQ could press the December highs of 1,155.68 and not be able to see bulls press the additional 1.74-points needed to get a matching high. NASDAQ Composite ($COMPX) Chart - Daily Interval Stockcharts.com hasn't tabulated all of their point and figure charts at the time I finished "marking up" the above chart, but today's is as good a day as any to benchmark the COMPX itself against the bullish %. One thing I'm noting for the first time when doing so, is that past "status" changes in the NASDAQ Composite came very close to the 50% retracement level of 1,314. This is "interesting" in my opinion, as during the advance back in October-December, the conventional retracement (pink) as drawn above would not have been "known" at that time. Not marked on the above chart (ran out of space) was the recent reversal back UP in the NASDAQ-Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) on April 3rd, which came at NASDAQ Comp 1,400, just prior to the last test of 38.2% retracement at 1,363.69. One of the "points" I want to make with this VERY broad bullish %, is the AMOUNT OF TIME and change to the market internals (needs 6% change to reverse status on the bullish % chart) to reverse course, and why the narrower NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) becomes important as it is "faster-moving" as it is narrower. Some may think it is crazy to begin setting up the "next" bullish entry trade, but right now, I'd be assessing downside risk in the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) to the 1,363 level, should the market look to take some gains and remove some of the bullish risk that has been built into things the past couple of months. The ability of the NASDAQ-Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) to build a series of higher highs and higher lows is encouraging, but as I've mentioned before, the bullish % are not a good indicator for predicting price action, but better for ascertaining what part of the "field" you're operating in, market internals and "who's got the risk" (bulls or bears). A longer-term bull at this point would "feel" much better about things longer-term if the NASDAQ Composite itself could build a higher relative high. Ah, here we are. Today's action saw the NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) see a net gain of 1.2%, which has about 36 stocks generating new point and figure buy signals. This is up from Friday's net gain of 1.33% (roughly 40 stocks) and now has this bullish % reaching a bullish cycle high of 54.67%. In May of 2001 and then again in January of 2002, this very broad indicator reached levels of 56% before eventually reversing lower. This tells us we're at similar risk levels found during those previous times, but internals continue to show good bullish strength. I received a mixed bag of requests to last week's self-wonderment if "too many" retracement brackets (conventional/monthly/weekly) was too noisy. Some traders (believe it or not) wanted me to ad a DAILY retracement onto the charts for their intra-day trading. Whew! I'm thinking if you're a day trader and trading the intra- day swings, you've got a high-level trading platform set up with real-time charts and good retracement brackets that you can attach from the DAILY S2-R2 levels and make notes each day on where the S1 and R1 levels are at. To tell you the truth, the thing that takes me the "longest" with my charts is updating my weekly charts each Monday and getting all the other things done I need to do in a day. So, I'll try and mix in various charts as each day passes. Some "love" the more simplistic point and figure charts with notations as to how a MONTHLY or WEEKLY level ties in. I guess we all have our preferences, but I was hoping to "reach a consensus," but that doesn't look achievable after review of my e-mail. So, here's a chart of the QQQ, which I find compelling and perhaps ties in or relative to the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX). NASDAQ-100 Tracking Stock (QQQ) - Daily Chart The QQQ, came close to trading its December 2nd relative high of $28.79, which would form the "upper-end" of yet another "zone of resistance." The QQQ also came close to testing our new WEEKLY R1 of $28.73. However, unlike other moves higher since the reversal up in the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) since March, risk hasn't been as high as depicted by the bullish %. Three- bars ago (Thursday) I profiled an bearish trade intra-day for partial positions in the QQQ puts for September expiration. Yes! I still hold them! That trade was put on at a level now below this WEEK's S1 of $27.39. Right now, the FIRST sign of any weakness in the QQQ would be brought on by DIVERGENCE, where the QQQ would actually close below the last downward trend on its chart, at approximately $28.00. I've pointed out in the market monitor that these VERY SHORT-TERM downward trends, when broken to the upside have been serving support on weakness. I don't think I'm seeing things either and I believe it is cause by bears, with some larger positions, looking for cover after each of these trends have been broken. NASDAQ-100 Track Stock (QQQ) - 30-minute chart At this point, I wouldn't call today's "highs" in the QQQ any more relevant or "sign of weakness" that April 21-22 trade that came UP into the $26.92-$27.06 zone (remember, the red retracement is MAY MONTHLY and wasn't there in APRIL). The only alert to any "new weakness" in the QQQ would be if there were some type of break and better yet, CLOSE below the downward trend, which is near $28.00. I do need to adjust my "thinking" a bit near-term as it relates to when I profiled the QQQ as bearish. I wouldn't have profiled the trade unless I thought it would trade $27 and break below the $26.90 level. With today's test of "upper zone" I've got to be thinking there will be some support found on a pullback very close to my bearish entry and this week's WEEKLY S1 of $27.39 and more likely the $27.00. ONLY on a trade into the zone of $27, would I then begin to think "I was onto something" and perhaps risk as depicted by the Bullish % is coming into play. Also, if we were to see a QQQ trade back near $27 this week, DO NOT be surprised if the current "downward trend" comes back into play as resistance. Today's action saw the narrower NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) see a net gain of 3%, so 3 stocks gave new point and figure buy signals. This has the bullish % rising to 76%. Still not as "risky" as December's 82% reading, and nowhere near as risky as November 1999's 93%. S&P 100 Index ($OEX.X) Chart - Daily Interval Aside from the January relative high there would appear to be little technical resistance in play on the bar chart until 477. The S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 292.45 -0.78%, which matched its November and January high on Friday, exhibited what I'd call "profit taking" ahead of tomorrow's FOMC data. Aside from Treasury bonds, the banks would also be a group that would be greatly influenced by tomorrow's FOMC decision on interest rates. I would think the MARKET would view a RATE CUT and an UNPLEASANT surprise from the Fed. The reason I say this is that I think the BANKS have RISEN based on the thought of economic improvement. I would view a Fed rate CUT as concern among FOMC policymakers that the economy is in trouble. The S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) did trade the upper-end of its bullish regression channel in Friday's trade, where the BIX.X traded a high of 295.15 and closed at 294.76. S&P 500 Index Chart - 5-point box A 3-box reversal back to 915 wouldn't be overly surprising for the SPX's PnF chart as it moved 1-box above our "bullish resistance" trend line. Most of the overhead supply the remained from January should be gone by now and sets the stage for a test of WEEKLY R1 of 940. The first sign of weakness on the SPX chart would be a double-bottom sell signal at 900, something that the SPX hasn't done since giving the triple-top buy signal at 855. I thought I placed the various "inflection points" of the bullish % on the SPX's point and figure chart in the past, but I got a couple of e-mails over the weekend from traders asking me to do this. Starting in the upper-left, I "tied in" how the bullish % most likely read after reaching the "peak" in early December (red C on a PnF chart). The decline to 58% was enough to see the bullish % reverse the needed 6%, but a "sucker rally" into January (red 1 on PnF chart) wasn't quite enough to see an UPWARD 6% reversal on the bullish % chart. I think the SPX chart with Bullish % tied in does a VERY GOOD job of explaining how EARLY it would be for BEARS to be taking full positions at this stage in the game. Was there time or decent entry point to look short in January? Did any BEAR "need" to pick a top and be FULL POSITION short/put in December? No. The "best" trade came AFTER a breakdown, not only in the SPX chart, but the bullish % also showing internal weakening. Today's action saw the broad S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) see a net gain of 1.4%, so 7 stocks saw new point and figure buy signals. Remember, when the bullish % grows higher, these aren't stocks that are giving "just another" consecutive buy signal. These are stocks that had generated a "sell signal" at some point, but today traded at a level above a point where there was enough supply to limit further upside price gains. Today's action has this bullish % growing to 60.8% and still may have some room to December's 68% level. As it would relate to the "euphoric" state of bullishness in March of 2002 as noted in the VERY broad NASDAQ Composite Bullish %, the SPX Bullish % reached 77% in March of 2002. Dow Industrials ($INDU) Chart - Daily Interval The Dow traded 8,600 right out of the gate this morning, and that was enough to generate a double-top buy signal. Once the Challenger report was released for April announced layoffs, the Dow lost its steam and the afternoon rally attempt to 8,580 came about 10-points shy of the morning high. I checked the intra-day charts and only the NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ-100 came close, or achieved their morning highs. The SPX, OEX and Dow all came up short. The first sign of trouble on the Dow's point and figure chart wouldn't show up until a double bottom sell signal at 8,300 and that's right at the apex of the Dow's "bullish triangle." We can perhaps see that 8,300 level represented by the above bar chart, but first-thing-first! The Dow did work itself above a "zone of resistance" from 8,476-8,493. I would have thought however that the Dow would have "launched" toward those 4-levels of resistance near 8,700. On Friday, the Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) saw a net gain of 6.66% as two stocks gave new point and figure buy signals. Today's action saw no net change in this VERY NARROW bullish%. Still "bull alert" as its bullish % grows to 56.67% and would need a reading of 62% to achieve "bull confirmed" status. Pivot analysis matrix There are few MONTHLY levels that would come suspiciously close to correlating. I do see some correlation tomorrow with the NDX MONTHLY R1 and DAILY R1, but that's as close as today's. One could think.... "If the NDX/QQQ reached its bull run peak," then today might have been the day. Lots of levels show up as support tomorrow at the WEEKLY pivots and DAILY R1s. As noted in Friday's late-evening market monitor and briefly in tonight's wrap, it has been awhile since we've seen the WEEKLY S1s traded and support looks formidable tomorrow at the WEEKLY pivots. "Red arrows" are still have the buying in Treasuries drawing my concern with regards to where the cash is coming from to keep the major indexes at these highs. Jeff Bailey ************************Advertisement************************* Tired of waiting on trades to execute? Does your broker offer Stop Losses on Options? Trade instantly with Stop Losses at PreferredTrade Inc. Stop Losses based on the option price or the stock price. Move your trading into the next millennium with PreferredTrade. Anything else is too slow! http://www.PreferredTrade.com/CF/Home.CFM?ID=OIN ************************************************************** **************** WEEKLY FUND WRAP **************** Stock Market Advance Continues Stock mutual funds enjoyed another good week as investors pushed stock prices higher in reaction to better than expected economic reports. Over the 5-day period through May 2, 2003, the S&P 500 index rose 3.5%, with large-cap U.S. equity funds following suit. Increases in personal income and consumer confidence were two of the upbeat economic reports last week which lured investors back to Internet, tech, telecom, and other equities. According to Lipper, the three large-cap U.S. equity fund groups averaged in the range of 3.3% to 3.6% for the week, similar with the 3.5% weekly return for the S&P 500 large-cap index. Mid-cap and small-cap U.S. stock funds did even better with "pro-growth" funds leading the way. For example, mid-cap growth funds picked up 4.5% on average for the week, while small-cap growth funds on average rose 5.4%. Science and technology funds gained 5.7% for the week and are now up 12.3% on average for the YTD 2003 period. International stock funds produced strong weekly returns as well, with the average international fund up 3.8% for the 5-day period, per Lipper. That was similar to the 3.9% weekly total return by the MSCI EAFE index of foreign stocks. Gold funds averaged 4.2% for the week and are now down less than 10 percent on average on a YTD 2003 basis through May 2. Fixed income investors enjoyed gains as well last week, with the total U.S. bond market (Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) up 0.2% for the 5-day period. The U.S. high-yield sector continued to perform relatively strongly, with the average high-yield fund producing a weekly total return of 1.3% per Lipper. The average international fixed income fund did even better, gaining 1.5% on average for the week. The average 7-day simple yield of all taxable money market funds held at 0.71% last week, according to fund-tracker iMoneyNet.com. U.S. Equity Fund Group Week YTD +3.5% +6.3% Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) +4.0% +4.0% Vanguard MidCap Index Fund (VIMSX) +4.9% +6.8% Vanguard SmallCap Index Fund (NAESX) +3.7% +6.4% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) +3.3% +5.4% Lipper Large-Cap Core Equity Fund Average +4.2% +5.2% Lipper Mid-Cap Core Equity Fund Average +4.7% +4.8% Lipper Small-Cap Core Equity Fund Average +3.8% +6.1% Lipper Multi-Cap Core Equity Fund Average +5.7% +12.3% Lipper Science & Technology Fund Average According to Lipper, all of the U.S. equity fund indices put up strong numbers last week, increasing their YTD 2003 gains. The tech sector was particularly strong, with the average tech fund rising 5.7% for the week. Some sector funds returned more than 10% for investors, including those relating to the Internet and global technology. The highly focused American Heritage Growth Fund, a multi-cap growth objective fund, was the week's highest performer. It produced a return of 16.7% for investors for the 5-day period. Among funds with assets of at least $500 million, the Neuberger Berman Focus Fund, a multi-cap value objective fund, posted the week's highest total return, +7.3%. The Buffalo Small-Cap Fund gained 7.2% for the week. Three of Legg Mason's funds produced above-average results last week: Special Investment Trust (7.1%), Value Trust (+7.0%), and the Opportunity Trust (+6.9%). Several Fidelity Select Portfolios did well also, including the Software and Computer Services Portfolio, which gained 6.6% for the week. The week's only losers were funds that short the market, such as the ProFunds UltraShort OTC Fund, which lost 9.5% over the 5-day period. The bottom 25 funds last week produced weekly losses of between 2.4% to 9.5%. International Equity Fund Group Week YTD +3.9% +1.7% Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund (VDMIX) +4.0% +3.0% Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund (VEIEX) +4.0% +1.9% Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX) +3.8% +0.9% Lipper International Fund Average +3.6% +3.5% Lipper Emerging Markets Fund Average +4.2% -9.3% Lipper Gold Fund Average International equity fund returns were also good last week, with the total international stock index up 4% over the weekly period and the average international stock fund rising 3.8%, per Lipper. ProFunds UltraJapan Fund returned 9.4% over the week to lead all global/international equity funds. Matthews Korea Fund produced an 8.7% weekly return for investors, while the Korean Investment Fund rose 8% for the week. European funds performed well too as evidenced by the 8.0% weekly total return by the ProFunds Europe 30 Fund. Oakmark International Fund's weekly total return of 5.8% was the highest among international funds with more than $500 million in total assets. Other larger-asset international funds to perform well last week included Nations International Value Fund (+5.7%), American Funds' Smallcap World Fund (+5.5%), ING International Value Fund (+5.4%) and GMO International Small Companies (+5.0%). So, international small-cap funds were among the best performers last week (as was the case for the U.S. equity fund group). The average gold fund returned 4.2% last week, bringing its 2003 YTD loss back under 10 percent, per Lipper. U.S. Fixed Income Fund Group Week YTD +0.1% +1.5% Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund (VBISX) +0.2% +3.0% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund (VBIIX) +0.3% +3.7% Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund (VBLTX) +0.2% +2.1% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX) +0.1% +1.3% Lipper Short Investment-Grade Fund Average +0.3% +2.9% Lipper Intermediate Investment-Grade Fund Average +0.1% +1.1% Lipper U.S. Government Fund Average +0.2% +2.6% Lipper Corporate A-Rated Debt Fund Average +1.3% +11.9% Lipper High-Yield Fund Average With the equity markets doing well, high current yield funds had another strong week. Some funds, such as Excelsior's High Yield Fund, Institutional Class, returned as much as 4.5% in the last five days. Among high-yield funds with $500 million or more in assets, the week's best performance came from Fidelity Advisor High Yield Fund, which returned 2.5% for the week. Its popular sibling, Fidelity Capital & Income Fund gained 2.1% over the 5- day period. In the investment-grade bond fund sector, those funds with high- yield exposure performed better than those without. For example, American Funds' Bond Fund of America returned 0.65% for the week, nearly twice the intermediate-term, investment-grade average per Lipper. The nation's largest bond fund, PIMCO Total Return Fund, had a weekly return of 0.35%, to keep pace with its intermediate- term bond fund peers. International Fixed Income Fund Group Week YTD +1.1% +5.5% Lipper Global Income Fund Average +1.5% +5.8% Lipper International Income Fund Average The solid weekly performance of U.S. high yield funds was matched by global/international fixed income funds, which produced weekly total returns in the 1.1%-1.5% range, per Lipper. Top performing funds for the week included the Alliance Global Dollar Government Bond Fund, up 3.2%, and Mainstay Global High Yield Fund, up 3.0%, as well as several other "emerging-market" debt funds. Among funds with assets over $500 million, the week's best return was produced by Fidelity New Markets Income Fund, +3.1%. The SEI Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio posted a 3.1% weekly total return for institutional investors. Balanced Fund Group Week YTD +2.3% +4.8% Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBALX) +2.4% +4.4% Lipper Balanced Fund Average The average balanced fund returned 2.4% last week using Lipper's number. Bob Markman hit the mark on his Markman Multifund Trust: Markman Moderate Allocation Fund (MTRPX), returning 6.4% over the 5-day period. At April 30, 74% of assets were invested in stocks and stock mutual funds. Other U.S. hybrid funds performing well for the week included the Morningstar 5-star rated Thompson Plumb Balanced Fund, which rose 4.5%. Oppenheimer Quest Balanced Value Fund posted a 4.0% weekly total return. Leuthold Core Investment Fund, another Morningstar 5-star rated fund, finished the week 3.8% higher. Money Market Fund Group Yield 0.71% iMoneyNet All Taxable Money Market Fund Average The average taxable money market fund's trailing 7-day (simple) yield remained at 0.71%, per iMoneyNet.com's latest MMF report. Among prime retail money funds, the top current yield continues to be offered by the PayPal Money Market Fund (1.22%). RBB MPP Sansom Street Class is second with a 1.13% 7-day average simple yield. The nation's largest retail MMF, Fidelity Cash Reserves, has an average simple yield of 0.95%, down 0.01% for the week. Mutual Fund News The top story on the www.brill.com website today is on emerging- market bond funds, an interesting read for those investors that may be considering such an investment. Theoretically, emerging market bond funds have more risk than global/international bond funds; therefore, they have greater total return potential over the long term. The Brill.com site also reported about a recent Standard & Poor's study indicating "focused" funds had produced better long-term investment results than non-concentrated funds. Morningstar fans, note that the funds tracker has just unveiled 11 new fund categories and eliminated one to make it easier for investors to find the fund they're looking for. Morningstar is splitting the domestic hybrid fund group into new categories on the basis of the fund's asset mix. Those funds with 20% to 50% in stocks and 50% or more in fixed income will be classified as "conservative allocation" funds. Funds with higher than 50% in equities will be labeled "moderate allocation" funds, according to Morningstar. For more information on the Morningstar category changes, go to the Funds Section of the www.morningstar.com website. Steve Wagner Editor, Mutual Investor firstname.lastname@example.org ************** TRADERS CORNER ************** The Case For Futures by Mark Phillips mphillips@OptionInvestor.com Life is a never-ending series of lessons. Some come quickly, like a bolt of lightning, while others are the result of a slowly dawning realization. Today's discussion is one of the latter. I've been watching with detached interest as the activity on the Futures Monitor has become more refined in recent months, but considered it little more than a passing distraction. But then I started noticing that more and more of the index traders I am in regular communication with are shifting the bulk of their efforts away from index options in favor of index future. Some of these individuals are very accomplished traders and in the past have pulled in very nice 6-figure incomes doing nothing more than trading index futures. That got me thinking that maybe I needed to take a serious look at this vehicle. By way of introduction, I need to make it clear that I am not altogether unfamiliar with futures trading. In fact, my earliest trading activities were in the futures arena -- commodity futures. You know, Pork Bellies, Coffee, Natural Gas and of course Gold and Crude Oil. I made some money and lost some money, but never really hit my stride in that arena. Then along came the late 1990s and the roaring bull market in equities and I shifted my focus into the equity options arena. I've traded options on all the major indices, and on more individual equities than I care to remember. When the market is trending, it really doesn't matter what vehicle you select, options can be the next best thing to your own personal ATM. But with the essentially trend-less and increasingly choppy nature of the equity market over the past 10 months, it has become more difficult to consistently string those winning option trades together. Back when I initially made the shift over to the equity world, the E-mini futures contracts on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 were still in their infancy -- they looked like interesting trading vehicles, but there just wasn't enough liquidity there to interest me at the time. But things change. Have you noticed the rarity of a trend move that lasts for more than 3-4 days? When I was heavily trading index options (which I still do, from time to time), it was fairly common that I could enter a trade on Monday or Tuesday and ride it right into Friday afternoon for a nice return. That has become increasingly difficult to do lately (especially during the latest Gulf War), with gap opens being the rule rather than the exception. In fact, I have found myself trying to day-trade using index options because of my preference to not hold a position over the closing bell due to market's propensity for gap open moves. But that ushers in a whole host of other problems, which we'll get to in a bit. So, with all the apparent interest in the index futures arena, I decided it was time to take another look. Guess what? The ES (S&P 500 E-mini) and NQ (NASDAQ-100 E-mini) contracts aver VERY liquid, with the former trading on the order of 500K contracts and the latter trading on the order of 200K contracts per day. So apparently we've got some good liquidity to work with. In order to make the case that these E-mini contracts are worth a trader's consideration, I think it would be useful to compare these contracts to the world of equity options. In order to keep things simple, I'm going to compare the ES contract to trading options on the S&P 100 or OEX. My primary reason for comparing to the OEX rather than the SPX is due to the closer spacing of option strikes, which makes contract selection and comparison more palatable. First some basic data. The OEX has $5 strike prices at or near the money, so for a current price of $469, we would be looking at the $465, $470, or $475 strikes. As of today's close, here are the prices for May calls and puts at those strikes. Strike Call Put 465 $9.20b x $9.90a $5.20b x $5.40a 470 $6.40b x $6.70a $7.30b x $7.70a 475 $4.10b x $4.40a $10.10b x $10.70a The ES contract requires an initial margin of $1800 per contract, so the cost to enter an ES Futures trade is roughly double that of entering an OEX May option trade. One nice thing about trading futures, is that it is exceedingly easy and consistent to determine both risk and potential reward for any given trade. Each ES point is equivalent to $50, so a 10-point move would be good for a $500 change in the value of the ES contract. If you want to limit your risk to no more than $250, then set a 5-point stop. Very simple, very easy! It is in the day-to-day market action that the merits of futures trading really begin to show themselves. Let's use today's action for the sake of discussion. The ES traded in exactly a 10-point range, and if we use the idealized example of shorting the high tick and covering at the low tick, we captured that 10-point move for $500 net gain on $1800 margin, for a gain of just over 27%. That's not bad. So how does it stack up against trading OEX options? For the sake of simplicity, let's utilize the May $470 option, once again assuming we have the exceedingly good fortune to buy puts at the high tick and cover at the low tick of the day. The OEX traded in a range of $468.79 - $473.72 on Monday for a total range of just under $5.00. The May $470 put traded from a high of $8.20 to a low of $5.80 on Monday for a total range of $2.40. So capturing the full range today would have netted a 29% gain on investment. At first blush, I would say the two different approaches are roughly equivalent. But those of you that trade index options already see the flaws. What about the bid/ask spread and what if you only caught a portion of the day's move, and what if the market reversed midway through the move? How would the two approaches vary? Bid/Ask Spread: When trading options (or futures for that matter), we rarely are able to buy at the Bid sell at the Ask. Even on the best of days, we're entirely happy if we can split the difference, buying and selling mid-way between the bid and the ask. Looking at the difference between bid and ask in the table above, we can see that we're probably going to have about $0.20 slippage on each end of the trade, which reduces our profit from $2.40 to $2.00. then the ROI drops from 29% to 24% and suddenly the ES trade is looking more favorable. But what about the spread on the ES contract, you ask? It's always a whopping 0.25 point, which translates to $12.50. So let's slice a 0.5 point slippage allowance off of the ES trade and we now have a $450 gain on the trade for a 25% ROI. That makes the two trades pretty equivalent, don't you think? There's one caveat to the foregoing. The bid/ask and slippage issues move more and more in favor of options as we approach option expiration because of the dwindling time decay. May options have less than 2 weeks of life left in them and much of the excess time decay has been bled out already. But if we move out to the June contracts, the $470 put trades for $13.90b x $14.90a, with a whopping $1.00 spread. That will tilt the balance steeply in favor of the ES trade in terms of bang for the buck and risk control. Risk Control: What do you do with an OEX option trade if the market moves 3 points in your favor and then unexpectedly reverses? There isn't enough movement yet to move place a stop anywhere near break-even, so more than likely the trade will end up being closed for a loss. On the other hand, with the ES, if we maintain a 4-point stop loss from the low of the day, then we can very methodically and consistently take gains out of the market. Can you make money in a directional OEX option trade with a 6-7 point move in the S&P 500? Not likely, as it probably equates to only about 2.5-3.0 points on the OEX. However, you should be able to glean a 2-3 point gain in the ES from such a move through the judicious use of stops. I'm running right up against my deadline here today, but hopefully this gives you a glimpse of some of the advantages of the world of index futures. Next Monday, I'll extend this conversation, showing you the process I've been going through in trying to quantify the viability of trading the ES, in addition to describing my process for paper trading this vehicle and comparing it to what could have been accomplished through the use of index options. I'll leave you with one final thought. Volatility and time decay have no meaning in the world of index futures. We all know what a menace these factors are in the options trading world. So ask yourself this question. What precise advantages are available from a vehicle that gives me the same rate of return as index options, but without a wide bid/ask spread, volatility concerns or the issue of time decay? I'll give you a hint -- it's a big deal! Tune in next week and we'll enjoy more learnin' together! In the meantime, consider tuning into the Futures Monitor and learn from Jim Brown and Alan Hewko. The two of them certainly seem to have their fingers on the pulse of this fast-paced trading action. Mark ************************Advertisement************************* If you trade options online, then you need an online broker that: offers true direct access to each option exchange offers stop and stop loss online option orders offers contingent option orders based on the price of the option or stock offers online spread order entry for net debit or credit offers fast option executions PreferredTrade offers these online option trading features and more; call 1-888-889-9178 or click for more information. http://www.PreferredTrade.com/CF/Home.CFM?ID=OIN ************************************************************** ************************Advertisement************************* "If you haven't traded options online – you haven't really traded options," claims author Larry Spears in his new compact guide book: "7 Steps to Success – Trading Options Online". Order today and save 25% (only $15) by clicking on PreferredTrade and clicking on the link to the book on its home page. http://www.PreferredTrade.com/CF/Home.CFM?ID=OIN ************************************************************** ******************* FREE TRIAL READERS ******************* If you like the results you have been receiving we would welcome you as a permanent subscriber. The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate. We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may subscribe at any time but your subscription will not start until your free trial is over. To subscribe you may go to our website at www.OptionInvestor.com and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit card server or you may simply send an email to "Contact Support" with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name) or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the information over the phone. You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333 ********** DISCLAIMER ********** Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.OptionInvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in OptionInvestor Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact: Contact Support
The Option Investor Newsletter Monday 05-05-2003 Copyright 2003, All rights reserved. 2 of 2 Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited. In Section Two: Stop Loss Updates: ADTN, AZO, KSS Dropped Calls: None Dropped Puts: None Play of the Day: Put - KSS Market Watch: Lots of Strength Updated on the site tonight: Market Posture: Catching Their Breath ************************Advertisement************************* Tired of waiting on trades to execute? Does your broker offer Stop Losses on Options? Trade instantly with Stop Losses at PreferredTrade Inc. Stop Losses based on the option price or the stock price. Move your trading into the next millennium with PreferredTrade. Anything else is too slow! http://www.PreferredTrade.com/CF/Home.CFM?ID=OIN ************************************************************** ***************** STOP-LOSS UPDATES ***************** ADTN - call Adjust from $40 up to $41.50 AZO - call Adjust from $80.00 up to $82.00 KSS - put Adjust from $58 down to $57.40 ************* DROPPED CALLS ************* None ************ DROPPED PUTS ************ None ************************Advertisement************************* If you trade options online, then you need an online broker that: offers true direct access to each option exchange offers stop and stop loss online option orders offers contingent option orders based on the price of the option or stock offers online spread order entry for net debit or credit offers fast option executions PreferredTrade offers these online option trading features and more; call 1-888-889-9178 or click for more information. http://www.PreferredTrade.com/CF/Home.CFM?ID=OIN ************************************************************** ********************* PLAY OF THE DAY - PUT ********************* Kohl's Corporation - KSS - close: 54.31 change: -1.14 stop: 57.40 Company Description: Kohl's Corporation operates family-oriented, specialty department stores, primarily in the Midwest. The company's stores sell moderately priced apparel, shoes, accessories and home products targeted to middle-income customers shopping for their families and homes. Kohl's stores have fewer departments than full-line department stores, but offer customers assortments of merchandise displayed in complete selections of styles, colors and sizes. Of the 420 stores the company operates, 116 are takeover locations, which have facilitated the entry into several new markets, including Chicago, Illinois; Detroit, Michigan; Ohio; Boston, Massachusetts; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; St. Louis, Missouri, and the New York region. Why we like it: The action in KSS was certainly perplexing early last week, as the stock dipped under our $54.70 entry target Monday morning, before rebounding strongly. Fortunately, that rebound failed under the $58 resistance level and the last 3 days have seen the stock continuing with its downward trend. The $55 support level is still holding, supported by the 50-dma ($55.05), but appears to be weakening. With the strong bullish performance by the broad market on Friday, as even the Retail index (RLX.X) posted a 1.67% gain, KSS' inability to post a gain certainly looks bearish. We're still looking for a solid break under that $55 support level to usher in another wave down. While the 10-period Stochastics (shown below) is trying to turn up, the faster 5-period Stochastics (not shown) is rolling over at its 4th consecutive lower high in the past 6 weeks and also portends near-term weakness. Another failed rebound below the $57 level (just below the 20-dma at $57.34) can be used for aggressive entries, while a break below last Monday's intraday low of $54.35 should work for more conservative players. We're leaving our stop set at $58 until we get a close under the 50-dma. Why This is our Play of the Day After last Monday's sharp bounce from below the $55 level, it took our KSS play a full week to make the round trip back below that level. Despite the bullishness in the broad market, KSS has been showing significant relative weakness and today's session saw the stock falling back under the 50-dma ($55.12), this time without so much as a hint of a bounce. The session ended with KSS just starting to top over the $54.30 support level and once this level gives way, it ought to be a quick trip into the low $50s. Our initial target is $52 and then we're looking to exit the play in the $50-51 area, which should provide solid support for a rebound. Traders still looking for an entry into the play will want to focus on a failed rebound below the $56 level, which provided intraday resistance on both Thursday and Friday. Aggressive traders can play a breakdown under the $54.30 level, with the understanding that it would likely be a quick trade, as we'll be looking for an exit as support is found at one of our listed targets. We're lowering our stop to $57.40, just above both the 20-dma as well as resistance from last Tuesday and Wednesday. Suggested Options: Short-term traders will want to focus on the May 55 Put, but need to use caution, as May expiration is less than 2 weeks away. Those looking for additional staying power to hold through the recent (and expected future) volatility will want to use the June strikes. BUY PUT MAY-55 KSS-QK OI=17968 at $2.35 SL=1.25 BUY PUT JUN-55 KSS-RK OI= 1124 at $3.60 SL=1.75 BUY PUT JUN-50 KSS-RJ OI= 1092 at $1.60 SL=0.75 Annotated Chart of KSS: http://www.OptionInvestor.com/oin/images/commentary/newsletter/2003-05-05/KSS050503a.gif Picked on April 27th at $55.02 Change since picked: -0.71 Earnings Date 05/15/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 3.73 mln ************************Advertisement************************* "If you haven't traded options online – you haven't really traded options," claims author Larry Spears in his new compact guide book: "7 Steps to Success – Trading Options Online". Order today and save 25% (only $15) by clicking on PreferredTrade and clicking on the link to the book on its home page. http://www.PreferredTrade.com/CF/Home.CFM?ID=OIN ************************************************************** ************ MARKET WATCH ************ Lots of Strength Northrop Gruman - NOC - close: 88.50 change: -1.33 Both the daily and the point-and-figure (PnF) chart for NOC look intriguing. Shares have been battling with the $90 level lately and bulls have been building on a pattern of higher lows. The PnF has broken descending resistance and looks ready to take off. We see plenty of congestion in the $93-94 region but longer-term traders might want to target a move to $100 or its 200-dma should the strength in the defense sector remain. Chart= --- Magna Intl - MGA - close: 59.35 change: +0.05 There's been a lot bullish comments lately about the auto and truck parts business. MGA's stock price has been ascending nicely and looks ready to breakout above the $60 level. Earnings are expected on May 8th and this may be one to watch. Chart= --- Resmed Inc - RMD - close: 38.00 change: +0.49 Shares of RMD have been strong both before and after their April 22nd earnings report. Of course it took beating the estimates by 2 cents to breakout above long-term resistance at 435. Now shares have found new support at $36 and shares are climbing higher on stronger volume. Another dip to $36 looks like an entry point to go long but you may not get it. The PnF chart is showing a quadruple top breakout. Chart= --- Merck & Co - MRK - close: 58.96 change: -0.33 The DRG drug sector broke out to the upside on Friday and MRK contributed to that gain. Unfortunately, MRK is stuck below resistance at $60.00. Bulls are building on a trend of higher lows but MRK has failed at $60 before in November 02, January 03 and just a couple of weeks ago. It might be best to watch for a breakout. Chart= --- Clear Channel - CCU - close: 38.90 change: -0.50 While most people tend of CCU as a radio company they also do broadcasting for 34 TV stations. The TV/Cable sector has been pretty strong lately. A breakout over $40 might be worth a move to the $44-45 area. Chart= ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- COF $44.42 - This credit-card company was on the watch list last Wednesday and we outlined a possible buy the dip to $40. Shares dipped towards $40 on Thursday and haven't looked back since. The stock even added another 3.78% today while the banking sectors pulled back on profit taking. It looks overbought and we'd still look for a dip to $40-41 with a tight stop. DELL $29.50 - Just a heads up... DELL is expected to announce earnings on May 13th. The stock price has run up into multi-year resistance in the $30-31 area. A breakout over $31 could be a winner. MCO $48.71 - Not the fastest mover but Moody's Corp has been trying very hard to build up enough steam and breakout above the $50 level. It has failed numerous times so you're probably better actually waiting for the breakout. RYL $54.00 - The housing sector continues to look extremely overbought. Sooner or later there will be some profit taking. Unfortunately, there's a lot of bears feeling a lot of pain. One to watch. WFMI $61.38 - This high-end grocery retailer has been bucking the trend in the grocery stocks for a while. The recent consolidation has broken out to new highs. Watch for their earnings announcement on May 7th. ************** MARKET POSTURE ************** Catching Their Breath To Read The Rest of The OptionInvestor.com Market Watch Click Here http://www.OptionInvestor.com/marketposture/mp_050503.asp ******************* FREE TRIAL READERS ******************* If you like the results you have been receiving we would welcome you as a permanent subscriber. The monthly subscription price is 39.95. The quarterly price is 99.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate. We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may subscribe at any time but your subscription will not start until your free trial is over. To subscribe you may go to our website at www.OptionInvestor.com and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit card server or you may simply send an email to "Contact Support" with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name) or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the information over the phone. You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333 ********** DISCLAIMER ********** Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.OptionInvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in OptionInvestor Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact: Contact Support
Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.
Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.
To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "email@example.com"
Option Investor Inc