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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 09/03/2003

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 09-03-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: New York Changes Name to Pamplona
Futures Wrap: Distribution or Consolidation
Index Trader Wrap: Rare Air


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     09-03-2003            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9568.46 + 45.19  9597.38  9514.49 2.06 bln   1778/1061
NASDAQ   1852.90 + 11.42  1863.55  1846.51 2.32 bln   1777/1320
S&P 100   514.50 +  3.64   516.27   510.86   Totals   1736/1759
S&P 500  1026.27 +  4.28  1029.34  1021.99
RUS 2000  510.71 +  3.21   512.01   507.50
DJ TRANS 2761.47 + 15.63  2769.67  2745.28
VIX        20.43 +  0.48    20.89    19.94
VXN        31.19 +  1.13    31.32    29.98
Total Volume 4,689M
Total UpVol  3,016M
Total DnVol  1,594M
52wk Highs   1,189
52wk Lows       23
TRIN          0.97
PUT/CALL      0.64
*******************************************************************

New York Changes Name to Pamplona
by James Brown

It was another busy day on Wall Street.  If you weren't running
with the bulls then you were probably trampled under their feet.
A second round of positive analyst comments and economic data
swept the markets to another set of new yearly highs.  Pundits
were eager to share their excitement over the return of volume to
the markets but skeptics thought it felt like smart money
unloading stocks to the uninitiated.  It's not very often that the
NASDAQ Composite, the Russell 2000 and the Wilshire 5000 index can
all notch a six-day winning streak.  If the markets can stretch
the rally a couple of more days we may have to move the Fiesta of
San Fermin to New York.

Market internals continue to be positive but they have slipped
somewhat from Tuesday's torrid pace.  Advancing issues beat
decliners 17 to 10 on the NYSE and 17 to 13 on the NASDAQ.
Wednesday's new yearly highs hit 822 compared to just 13 new lows.
One of the big factors that Wall Street analysts were talking
about today was the return of volume and the market's ability to
hold its gains.  The NYSE experienced its best volume in six weeks
with more than 2 billion shares traded.  The NASDAQ saw the best
volume since June with more than 2.3 billion shares.

Volume is normally accepted as a tool for the bulls but from the
looks of the doji candlestick on the NASDAQ today we could be
seeing some distribution, not new buying.

Overseas markets reacted strongly to the U.S. gains from Tuesday
and that helped set the mood again this morning at home.  The
English FTSE 100 added 57 points (+1.37%) to close at 4262.  The
German DAX added 80 points (+2.25%) to close at 3647.  The
Japanese NIKKEI rose 25 points to 10715 and the Hang Seng broke
above the 11,100 mark with a 162-point gain.  Meanwhile the U.S.
treasury markets seem to hover in anticipation of the Beige book
report out this afternoon.  The 10-year note and the 30-year note
remained close to yearly lows.

Chart of the Dow Jones Industrials




Chart of the S&P 500 index





Chart of the NASDAQ




Early this morning, prior to the opening bell, Credit Suisse First
Boston gave the broker-technology party new energy with positive
comments about the software sector.  CSFB raised their outlook
from "market weight" to "overweight" claiming their belief that
corporate discretionary spending will increase over the next 12
months and this money would filter into the software group.  As we
commented on yesterday and CNBC did today, these brokers are
coming in awfully late with these upgrades but that hasn't stopped
the GSO software index from making new gains.  As a matter of fact
Microsoft (MSFT) was the biggest gainer in the Industrials today
with a 3.8% move on big volume of 109 million shares.  Dumping
more fuel on the tech fire was SG Cowen who revealed that their
most recent technology survey showed a decent recovery in I.T.
spending.  Unfortunately, the outlook wasn't quite as rosy as
their March survey and SG Cowen lowered its earnings estimates for
IBM and HPQ.  Speaking of IBM, Soundview also raised their Q3
estimates for Big Blue.  This comes a day after Dan Niles, with
Lehman Brothers, offered positive comments for Big Blue's service
division.  Shares of IBM added 57 cents after giving up most of
the day's gains.

One of these biggest influences on the markets today were comments
from John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems (CSCO).  CSCO is the
world's largest maker of routers and networking equipment so any
up tick in I.T. spending is probably going to find its way to
CSCO.  Sure enough, John stated this morning that August sales
were better than expected but he quickly cautioned that the trend
may not carry over into September.  August is traditionally a slow
time for CSCO so investors cheered anyway and CSCO added 3.3
percent by the close with a breakout above the $20 mark.  Also
contributing to the networking/communication equipment fever were
shares of Nortel Networks (NT), which added 8.1 percent after
signing a $1 billion multi-year deal with Verizon Wireless.

The day was not without its economic reports.  This morning saw
the July construction numbers come out.  Economists had been
expecting a rise of 0.5 percent.  The Commerce Department
estimated that July's construction spending came in at +0.2
percent.  While less than the estimates it still put the
seasonally adjusted rate to its highest level since January.  This
comes on the back of an upwardly revised +0.7 percent in June
(from +0.3 percent).  Higher mortgage rates in June and July had
little affect on residential construction, which rose 6.1 percent
in July on a year-over-year basis.

Economists and bond traders were also waiting to hear the Beige
book report announced at 2:00 PM ET.  The report takes a survey of
economic conditions for the 12 Fed districts.  All but one showed
a pick up in business activity over the last two months.  The
general trend was a rise in consumer spending and a firming in the
manufacturing sector, which we already knew from Tuesday's ISM
report.

The combination of positive comments from the likes of CSCO, the
outbreak of analyst upgrades and daily confirmation that the
economy really does seem to be improving has put the markets into
a momentum mode.  Many believe that valuations have become too
rich.  However, as is its modus operandi the stock market is
discounting future earnings growth.  Fears of being left behind as
the markets charge ahead could be fueling the recent run up.

Personally, I find it encouraging that Wall Street could mount a
follow through on Tuesday's big breakout.  The bad news is that I
suspect the rally could run out of steam pretty quickly.  The SOX
has failed to participate in the rally this week and actually lost
2.68% by the close.  That's not supposed to happen with the NASDAQ
making new 17-month highs.  The drop in the semiconductor index is
suggesting that chips are due for more profit taking.  Jeff Bailey
likes to point out that the chips usually lead the markets higher
and lower.  I also note that the financial sectors were not really
participating in the rally today either.  Both the BKX and BIX
closed with a gain but they were minor.  Only the broker/dealer
index has maintained any strength.

Another disturbing observation remains the bullish percent data.
Bullish percent data measures how many stocks are on a buy signal.
Readings under 30 are typically oversold and a good time to
consider initiating longs while readings over 70 are typically
overbought and time to start liquidating longs and evaluating
bearish plays.  Both the S&P 100 (OEX) and the S&P 500 (SPX) are
at 5-year extremes.  The OEX bullish percent is at 87 (out of 100)
and the SPX is at 80.

I am not suggesting that we close out our longs and load up on
puts but it should make traders very cautious about initiating new
bullish plays.  The "don't leave me behind" mentality could keep
investors buying the dips long after you or I run out of money
trying to short the top.  So what are traders to do?  The trend is
obviously up but the key to short-term trading is timing and that
requires patience to wait for the right entry point.

Keep in mind that with so many gains, any bad news could spark a
sharp drop as investors rush to lock in profits.  Tomorrow is
going to be another hectic day with the August ISM Services index,
July Factory Orders, the Q2 GDP revision and Intel's mid-quarter
update.

Watch those stop losses.


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Distribution or Consolidation
Jonathan Levinson

The markets gave us a blast from the past, with equities,
treasuries, commodities and foreign currencies spending most of
the session in the green, as the US Dollar Index traded lower.

Daily Pivots (generated with a pivot algorithm and unverified):





10 minute chart of the US Dollar Index




The US Dollar Index spent most of the cash session selling off,
after rallying in overnight trading, the daytime selloff helped
along by Bernanke-esque words from San Francisco Fed President
Robert Parry and John Snow's progress reports from his trip to
China.  A spokesperson for the People's Bank of China, its
central bank, rained somewhat on Snow's parade, telling Reuters
as reported in CBS Marketwatch that "There won't be any change in
the exchange rate just because someone is visiting China."  The
dollar fell lower nonetheless.  98.50 was acting as support as of
this writing, with unbroken resistance at 99.40.  The action gave
gold a lift off its lows of the day and added fractionally to the
CRB.


Daily chart of December gold




Today had to be difficult for gold sellers, with the December
contract trading in the red all night, and then reversing
suddenly to bounce over 5 points from support at its low of the
day of 370.80.  The oscillators continue to point higher after a
false sell signal preceding the pennant breakout, though 380
continues to hold as resistance.

Daily chart of the ten year note yield




The ten year treasury note yield (TNX) pulled back a mere 0.2 bps
today, closing at 4.599%.  The end of session selloff was
surprising, given the relatively steady range held by treasuries
throughout most of the day.  The Fed added 2.25B to refund an
expiring overnight repurchase agreement in the amount of 5.75B,
and the resulting 3.5B drain no doubt contributed to the selling.
The flat close did nothing to change the picture for treasuries
on the daily candle chart, with the yield rally continuing to
show surprising strength and keeping treasury bulls firmly behind
the starting gate.


Daily NQ candles




The NQ led to the downside today, closing lower by 1 point,
compared with equal gains of 0.51% for the ES and YM.  The
pullback felt more significant than it actually was, for the
simple reason that the words "pullback" and "NQ" haven't fit in
the same sentence for a week.  The stochastic appears to be
rolling over on the daily cycle oscillator, while the laggier Macd
remains in its bull run.  Pricewise, there's little to guide us on
the NQ as the price closed virtually unchanged, failing from an
intraday 52 week high of 1376.50.

30 minute 20 day chart of the NQ




The 30 minute chart shows a perfect closing dilemma, with the NQ
parked on rising trendline support within a bear wedge.  The
stochastic broke its uptrend, although a reversal from price
trendline support would repair the stochastic uptrend quickly.
This remains a bullish chart, however difficult it may be for
traders to trust last week's gains.  Volume poured into the Nasdaq
today, with over 2B shares trading.  It's either an expert
distribution operation, or the NQ is consolidating for its next
blast higher.

Daily ES candles




The ES added 5.25 points today and closed at a new 52 week high,
with the oscillators on the daily candles moving toward trending
buy signals.  1020 held as support, and despite the narrow range
following yesterday's large move, there was little for bears to
cheer.

20 day 30 minute chart of the ES




Today's move constituted a return to the scene of the crime just
above the rising upper trendline on the failed bear flag
formation.  The oscillator sell signals on the 30 minute chart
got precious little traction, moving lower with price trading
sideways within a narrow range.  This divergence is either the
price lagging an oscillator sell signal, or, more likely in my
opinion, a consolidation of yesterday's gains as the overbought
extreme is worked off.  That's on the basis of these oscillators.
I remain dubious as to the ability of the bulls to attract enough
fresh funds to rally the ES above the current zone for any length
of time without some kind of pullback first.  Whether the ES
fails from 1027 or from 1035, I expect some kind of correction.
The level from which that correction reverses will permit us to
get our bearings as to how bullish the market truly is.

Daily YM candles




The YM took out resistance, finding support above 9500, and
printed a new 52 week closing high.

20 day 30 minute chart of the YM




Equities rallied today on heavy volume, but the recent leader,
the NQ, traded weaker than its peers. Whether this proves to be
bullish or bearish in the near term remains to be seen, but the
lack of a deeper pullback following yesterday's rapid afternoon
advance is an impressive reminder of the flagpole rallies of the
spring.  Similarly, the treasury and commodity strength on the
weakness of the dollar harkens to the spring rally.
Nevertheless, treasuries couldn't hold their gains into the 3PM
close, and it was a narrow day in that market as well following
yesterday's big move.  Today was a mere footnote to yesterday,
and hopefully tomorrow will give us more meaningful movement.


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********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Rare Air
Jonathan Levinson

The indices marched higher on strong volume, with the COMPX, INDU
and SPX all printing new 52 week closing highs.  Only the QQQ,
NDX and Nasdaq futures closed fractionally lower.  The Nasdaq
traded over 2B shares, with advancing volume doubling declining
volume on the Nasdaq and nearly doubling it on the NYSE.

Daily Pivots (generated with a pivot algorithm and unverified):




Daily COMPX candles




It's difficult to see on the daily candle chart, but that small
smudge of green above the wedge trendline is an 11 point tall
candle, representing a new 12 month closing high for the Nasdaq.
I believe we're up to 7 white soldiers on the candlestick
pattern, with nothing bearish about it.  That said, the daily
candle stochastic rolled over today, which is a bearish
divergence, implying that the dominant cycle we've been following
is in the process of topping.  While nothing prevents the
oscillator from beginning to trend in overbought territory, that
is the less likely scenario based on the oscillator alone.

On the 30 minute candles below, the oscillators gave clear buy
signals starting in the mid-afternoon.  They remain within a
pattern of higher lows, however, following the steeply-rising
price increases on in this timeframe.  As the uptrend of higher
oscillators lows is now near the top of their range, the absence
of a price breakdown on the COMPX will cause them to become
pinned in overbought territory as the price trends higher.

As we recall from 2002, the best short setups were those in which
the shorter and longer timeframes were lined up in overbought and
rolling over.  If this holds true again, then we're very close to
the top of the present move.  However, only gunslingers will
consider standing in front of what has proven to be a powerful
train, and less aggressive traders will want to wait for a
breakdown below the lower ascending trendline on the 30 minute
candle chart at 1840.

30 minute 20 day chart of the COMPX





Daily INDU candles




The INDU joined the party today, closing at a new 52 week high as
well.  The move consolidated yesterday's gain, and whether the
next significant move is to the upside or downside remains the
only question.  Unlike the Nasdaq, the INDU's stochastic is
coming out of a downphase prematurely, which looks considerably
more bullish than the rollover commencing on the Nasdaq's daily
chart oscillators.  It will take further price gains from the
INDU to complete it, however, and on the 30 minute candle chart,
we see those same sell signals printed during the mid- afternoon.
Support at 9550 is the level to watch, below which 9500 will be
in play.

20 day 30 minute chart of the INDU





Daily OEX candles




The OEX added to yesterday's gains but fell 4 points short of the
imperfect reverse head and shoulders formation 520 target
discussed last night.  The stochastic continues to print its
negative divergence here, though another day of gains could bring
it around to join the Macd.  Note how the cycles are poorly
defined relative to the Nasdaq.  The aimless, flat rectangle
printed since June has chopped up the oscillators on the OEX,
while the Nasdaq, with its stair-step advance, has given its
oscillators more movement to measure.

The 39 minute candles show the return-to-the-scene-of-the-crime
correction to the upper flag trendline.  The oscillator setup on
this shorter timeframe implies the same "do or die" setup that we
saw on the COMPX and INDU.  Any failure to break down here will
cause them to become pinned as the price trends higher.  The
combination of these oscillators and the 10 day stochastic above
implies a pullback tomorrow.  So long as the lower trendline
remains intact, bulls have cause to celebrate, but bullish
profits can be protected on the upper flag trendline at 513.


20 day 30 minute chart of the OEX




Daily QQQ candles




QQQ was the laggard today, actually closing fractionally lower.
Note how the sell signal on the stochastic is further along than
on the COMPX, as the QQQ, the tracking stock for the Nasdaq-100,
tends to lead the broader index.  If so, then it's telegraphic a
correction for at least the Nasdaq.  I'm not trying to read too
much into a few cents' worth of correction following a week-long
rally, but this remains a dangerous area for long positions.  As
shorts learned today, it remains dangerous for them too.

The lower trendline on the bear flag is already in play, possibly
another sign of things-to-come for the other indices.  A break
below 33.75 could get the fireworks started, as the shorter and
longer cycles are lined up bearishly at current levels.  Bulls
need stops, and bears need patience until that level is broken.
Given the number of false signals we've been seeing recently,
they'll need stops as well as patience.


20 day 30 minute chart of the QQQ





For tomorrow, traders will be watching support under the QQQ and
Nasdaq futures for a heads-up regarding the broader indices.  A
pullback here would not be bearish, but a lower high on the
bounce from that pullback would be.  See you at the bell!


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 09-03-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: None
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Play of the Day: Call - PGR
Spreads, Combinations & Premium-Selling Plays: Selling Into The
Close?
Watch List: Three-Lettered Stocks To Watch

Updated on the site tonight:
Market Posture: Are the Bears on Vacation or Just Simply Hibernating?



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STOP-LOSS UPDATES
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None

*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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**********************
PLAY OF THE DAY - CALL
**********************

Progressive Corp. - PGR - cls: 72.43 chg: +0.67 stop: 68.95

- Company Description -
Traditionally a leader in non-standard, high-risk personal auto
insurance, PGR has moved into standard-risk and preferred auto
insurance, as well as other personal use vehicle coverage, such
as motorcycles and recreational vehicles.  The company's
property-casualty insurance products protect its customers
against collision and physical damage to their vehicles and
liability to others for personal injury or property damage.

- Most Recent Update (Tuesday, September 2, 2003)-
On its first day on the Call list, PGR had something for
everyone.  Beginning with a dip and rebound from just above $70,
the stock offered an entry point for those looking for a pullback
entry.  Shortly thereafter, the stock broke above $70.75
resistance and then charged higher with the rest of the market,
ending with a gain of just over 1.4%.  It looks like the 2 week
consolidation is playing out in bull flag fashion as we
speculated over the weekend, and that means our upside target in
the $75-76 is looking quite feasible.  Now we can look at a dip
into the $70.50-71.00 area for new entries, while more aggressive
traders can use a breakout over $72 as their entry trigger.
We're raising our stop just slightly to $68.95, as that is just
below the intraday lows from last week.

- Play of the Day Comments -
The IUX insurance index is rebounding from support near 265 and
today's session put it back above the 50-dma.  If the rally can
continue then a retest of 280 or higher could be soon.
Meanwhile, shares of PGR have been strong the last two sessions
and did not see the same late day pull back that affected most of
the market today.

Suggested Options:
Shorter Term: The September 70 Call will offer short-term traders
the best return on an immediate move, as it is slightly in the
money.

Longer Term: Aggressive traders looking to capitalize on an
extended rally will want to look to the October 75 Call.  This
option is currently out of the money, but should provide
sufficient time for the stock to move higher without time decay
becoming a dominant factor over the short run.  More conservative
long-term traders will want to use the October 70 Call.

BUY CALL SEP-70 PGR-IN OI= 224 at $3.00 SL=1.50
BUY CALL SEP-75 PGR-IO OI=  65 at $0.40 SL= -- not much time left
BUY CALL OCT-70 PGR-JN OI=  51 at $3.90 SL=2.00
BUY CALL OCT-75 PGR-JO OI= 144 at $1.25 SL=0.65

Annotated Chart of PGR:




Picked on August 31st at $70.74
Change since picked:      +1.68
Earnings Date          10/15/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      815 K



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*********************************************
SPREADS, COMBINATIONS & PREMIUM-SELLING PLAYS
*********************************************

Selling Into The Close?
By Mark Wnetrzak

Heated buying in the technology sector that took the NASDAQ to
a new 17-month gave way to a bit of selling at the Market close.

The Dow gained 45 points, or 0.5%, to 9,568, as General Electric
(NYSE:GE) powered higher after an analyst upgrade.  The Standard
& Poor's 500 Index finished up 0.4%, to 1025, and the NASDAQ rose
11 points, or 0.6%, to 1,852.  In contrast, the NASDAQ 100 Index
acted a bit worrisome and actually sold off a point to 1,360 as
chip stocks such as Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), falling $0.33, were under
some selling pressure.  The volume was robust at 1.64 billion on
the NYSE and at 2.28 billion on the NASDAQ Stock Market.  Stocks
advancing led decliners by 20 to 12 on the NYSE and by 19 to 14
on the NASDAQ. In the bond market, the 10-year closed essentially
flat with the yield near 4.6%.

***************

SUMMARY OF CURRENT POSITIONS - AS OF 9/2/03

***************

The following summary is a reasonable account of the positions
previously offered in this section.  However, no representation
is being made as to the actual performance of a position and in
fact, there are frequently large differences between the summary
results and those of our subscribers, due to the variety of ways
in which each play can be opened, closed, and/or adjusted.  In
addition, the summary might not be completely representative of
the manner in which the average trader would react to changing
conditions in a position and to the options market in general.
The editor of this section does not take actual positions in any
published plays and the summary comments are simply a service to
help new traders understand when positions might be opened and
closed.  In most cases, actions taken based on the commentary
would be far too late to be effective, thus it is not intended
as a substitute for personal trade management nor does it in
any way replace your duty to diligently monitor and manage the
positions in your portfolio.


MONTHLY YIELD FOR UNCOVERED OPTIONS: MAXIMUM & SIMPLE

The Maximum Yield (listed in the summary and with "naked" option
selling plays) is the greatest possible profit available in the
position.  This amount, expressed as a percentage, is based on
the initial margin requirement as determined by the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. options markets and
other self-regulatory organizations.  Although increased margin
requirements may be imposed either generally or in individual
cases by various brokerage firms, our calculations use the widely
accepted margin formulas from the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The "Simple Yield" is based on the cost of the underlying issue
(in the event of assignment), including the premium from the sold
option, thus it reflects the maximum potential loss in the trade.


Naked Puts
**********

Stock   Strike Strike Cost  Current   Gain    Max    Simple
Symbol  Month  Price  Basis  Price   (Loss)  Yield   Yield

DRIV     SEP    17    17.15  27.99   $0.35   4.88%   2.04%
IMCL     SEP    30    28.85  42.32   $1.15   8.88%   3.99%
LLTC     SEP    32    31.75  41.94   $0.75   4.40%   2.36%
OVTI     SEP    30    29.15  45.87   $0.85   6.18%   2.92%
SINA     SEP    22    21.90  34.28   $0.60   5.80%   2.74%
ZRAN     SEP    20    19.60  25.77   $0.40   4.92%   2.04%
CBK      SEP    22    22.80  30.50   $0.30   3.42%   1.32%
IMCL     SEP    30    29.45  42.32   $0.55   5.18%   1.87%
LLTC     SEP    32    32.00  41.94   $0.50   3.64%   1.56%
NVLS     SEP    30    29.55  39.81   $0.45   3.92%   1.52%
OVTI     SEP    30    29.35  45.87   $0.65   5.83%   2.21%
PCLN     SEP    25    24.65  39.23   $0.35   4.03%   1.42%
PHTN     SEP    22    22.10  33.38   $0.40   5.24%   1.81%
RIMM     SEP    20    19.60  27.32   $0.40   5.78%   2.04%
URBN     SEP    40    39.40  50.19   $0.60   3.78%   1.52%
AEIS     SEP    17    17.10  24.00   $0.40   5.97%   2.34%
AEIS     SEP    20    19.50  24.00   $0.50   7.31%   2.56%
FLML     SEP    17    17.00  31.64   $0.50   9.88%   2.94%
IMCL     SEP    35    34.50  42.32   $0.50   4.45%   1.45%
JCOM     SEP    25    24.70  38.25   $0.30   4.30%   1.21%
MGAM     SEP    22    22.20  27.12   $0.30   4.08%   1.35%
NFLX     SEP    22    22.25  33.65   $0.25   4.01%   1.12%
NTES     SEP    40    39.55  57.30   $0.45   4.13%   1.14%
PHTN     SEP    25    24.60  33.38   $0.40   5.15%   1.63%
RIMM     SEP    22    22.15  27.32   $0.35   5.48%   1.58%
SINA     SEP    25    24.70  34.28   $0.30   4.23%   1.21%
ANPI     SEP    35    34.55  42.95   $0.45   4.69%   1.30%
AEIS     SEP    20    19.75  24.00   $0.25   5.01%   1.27%
BRKS     SEP    20    19.75  25.48   $0.25   5.72%   1.27%
FLML     SEP    22    22.05  31.64   $0.45   8.41%   2.04%
LLTC     SEP    37    37.10  41.94   $0.40   3.84%   1.08%
OSIP     SEP    30    29.65  37.89   $0.35   5.39%   1.18%
NFLX     SEP    27    27.05  33.65   $0.45   6.69%   1.66%
NTES     SEP    40    39.60  57.30   $0.40   4.59%   1.01%
NVLS     SEP    37    36.85  39.81   $0.65   6.00%   1.76%
PHTN     SEP    27    27.15  33.38   $0.35   4.93%   1.29%
QCOM     SEP    37    37.05  41.21   $0.45   4.27%   1.21%
RCII     SEP    27    27.74  31.80   $0.26   3.49%   0.94%


Naked Calls
***********

Stock  Strike Strike Cost  Current   Gain    Max     Simple
Symbol Month  Price  Basis  Price   (Loss)  Yield    Yield

CVTX     SEP    32   32.95  26.21   $0.35   5.65%    1.06%
MEDI     SEP    40   40.65  35.58   $0.65   4.68%    1.60%
RJR      SEP    35   35.55  35.30   $0.25   1.88%    1.55% *
CVTX     SEP    30   30.45  26.21   $0.45   8.12%    1.48%
ACDO     SEP    25   25.75  23.99   $0.75   11.84%   2.91%
APC      SEP    45   45.55  43.34   $0.55   4.55%    1.21%

R.J. Reynolds (NYSE:RJR) is now on the "early-exit" list.


Put-Credit Spreads
******************

Symbol  Pick   Last   Month L/P S/P Credit  C/B    G/L   Status

KSS     60.64  64.49   SEP   50  55  0.60  54.40  $0.60   Open
WHR     66.05  70.31   SEP   55  60  0.60  59.40  $0.60   Open
XAU     82.67  89.95   SEP   70  75  0.55  74.45  $0.55   Open
APPX    43.86  49.34   SEP   30  35  0.55  34.45  $0.55   Open
CHIR    46.33  51.13   SEP   40  42  0.25  42.25  $0.25   Open
TIF     37.42  39.63   SEP   30  35  0.45  34.55  $0.45   Open
AMZN    43.76  47.33   SEP   37  40  0.30  39.70  $0.30   Open
KLAC    54.35  58.36   SEP   47  50  0.30  49.70  $0.30   Open
RCII    30.32  31.80   SEP   26  28  0.24  27.76  $0.24   Open
BBY     51.45  53.16   SEP   42  45  0.20  44.80  $0.20   Open
MUR     53.62  56.97   SEP   45  50  0.25  49.75  $0.25   Open
VIP     54.95  55.48   SEP   45  50  0.50  49.50  $0.50   Open

Our new position in Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) was not available at
the target price due to the "gap-up" at the open of Thursday's
session.


Call-Credit Spreads
*******************

Symbol  Pick   Last   Month L/C S/C Credit  C/B    G/L   Status

UNH     48.79  49.80   SEP  57  55   0.30  55.30  $0.30   Open
WLP     76.49  79.00   SEP  90  85   0.50  85.50  $0.50   Open
CTX     73.74  74.20   SEP  85  80   0.65  80.65  $0.65   Open
NBIX    49.52  53.58   SEP  60  55   0.60  55.60  $0.60   Open
LLY     61.61  66.80   SEP  70  65   0.55  65.55 ($1.25) Closed
MRK     52.12  51.07   SEP  60  55   0.55  55.55  $0.55   Open
APOL    60.52  64.44   SEP  70  65   0.60  65.60  $0.60   Open
INTU    45.94  46.71   SEP  50  47   0.40  47.90  $0.40   Open
KBH     56.31  57.41   SEP  65  60   0.50  60.50  $0.50   Open

As noted last week, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) was on the "early-exit"
list and the position should have been closed on further upside
activity.  Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) and Apollo Group
(NASDAQ:APOL) are on the "watch" list.


Synthetic Positions
*******************

No Open Positions


Debit Straddles
***************

Stock   Pick   Last   Exp.   Long  Long  Initial   Max     Play
Symbol  Price  Price  Month  Call  Put    Debit   Value   Status

ABC     60.00  57.65   NOV    60    60    7.25    7.40     Open

Amerisourcebergen (NYSE:ABC) has achieved profitability in a short
time but if the trend of the issue reverses direction, traders may
need to "leg-out" of the play to preserve capital.


Questions & comments on spreads/combos to Contact Support
**************

NEW POSITIONS

This following group of plays is simply a list of candidates to
supplement your search for profitable trading positions.  As with
any new investment, you must decide if the selections meet your
criteria for potential plays.  Only you can know what strategies
are suitable for your personal skill level, risk-reward tolerance
and portfolio outlook.  In addition, we recommend that you avoid
any trading techniques in which you are not completely comfortable
with the potential capital loss, the necessary adjustments, and
the common entry-exit strategies.  The positions with "*" will be
included in the weekly summary.  Those with "TS" (Target-Shoot)
are below our minimum monthly return, but may offer a favorable
entry price with a limit order, due to the daily volatility of
the underlying issue.

**************

BULLISH PLAYS - NAKED PUTS

All of these issues have robust option premiums and relatively
favorable technical indications.  However, current news and market
sentiment will have an effect on these stocks, so review each play
thoroughly and make your own decision about its future outcome.

WARNING: THE RISK IN SELLING UNCOVERED OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL!

The sale of uncovered puts entails considerable financial risk,
far more than the initial margin or collateral required to open
a position.  The maximum financial obligation for the sale of a
naked put is the strike price (of the underlying stock) that is
sold.  Although this obligation is reduced by the premium from
the sale of the option, a writer of puts should have the cash or
collateral equivalent of the sold strike price in reserve at all
times.  In addition, there is one very important rule when using
this strategy: Don't sell puts on stocks that you don't want to
own!  Why?  Because stocks occasionally experience catastrophic
declines, exponentially increasing the margin maintenance and
possibly causing a devastating shortfall in your portfolio.  It
is also important that you consider using trading stops on naked
option positions to help limit losses when a stock's price falls.
Many professional traders suggest closing the position when the
underlying share value moves below the sold strike, or using a
"buy-to-close" stop order at a price that is no more than twice
the original premium received from the sold option.

**************
FLML - Flamel Technologies  $33.71  *** Bristol-Meyers Deal! ***

Flamel Technologies (NASDAQ:FLML) is a biopharmaceutical company
engaged mainly in the development of two polymer-based delivery
technologies for medical applications.  The company's Micro-pump
technology is a multi-particulate technology for oral ingestion
of small molecule drugs with applications in controlled release,
tastemasking and bioavailability enhancement.  The company has
three major products based on its Micropump technology: Asacard,
a controlled-release formulation of aspirin for the treatment of
cardiovascular disease; Metformin XL, a controlled-release form
of Metformin that is in development for use for the treatment of
Type II diabetes, and Genvir, a controlled-release acyclovir for
the treatment of genital herpes.  In addition, FLML has developed
new herbicide delivery systems and has patented a biomaterial,
ColCys.

FLML - Flamel Technologies  $33.71

PLAY (sell naked put):

Action    Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd     Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL PUT  SEP 25    FLU UE     884   0.20  24.80   5.2%   0.8% *
SELL PUT  SEP 30    FLU UF     273   1.05  28.95  17.4%   3.6%


**************
KVHI - KVH Industries  $28.41  *** New All-Time High! ***

KVH Industries (NASDAQ:KVHI) designs and manufactures systems and
solutions using its proprietary satellite antenna and fiber-optic
technologies for two principal markets: satellite communications,
and defense-related navigation and guidance.  Its mobile satellite
communications products connect people on the move to satellite
television, telephone and high-speed Internet services worldwide.
In the defense-related navigation and guidance market, the company
uses its core magnetic, fiber-optic sensing, navigation systems
integration and display technology to develop and manufacture
products that address a variety of systems requirements for
military and commercial customers.

KVHI - KVH Industries  $28.41

PLAY (sell naked put):

Action    Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd     Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL PUT  SEP 25    VJU UE      29   0.25  24.75   5.5%   1.0% *


**************
NTES - NetEase.com  $55.30  *** Premium-Selling Only! ***

NetEase.com (NASDAQ:NTES) is a China-based Internet technology
company that pioneered the development of applications, services
and other technologies for the Internet in China.  The NetEase Web
sites, operated by a company affiliate, organize and provide access
to 18 content channels through distribution arrangements with more
than one hundred international and domestic content providers.  In
addition, the NetEase Internet sites offer a variety of products
and services, including Instant Messaging (Popo), Dating, Love,
Alumni and Personal Home Page.  These products and services enable
users to communicate about interests and areas of expertise.  At
the end of March 2003, the number of registered users of NetEase
Web sites reached 114 million with the average number of daily page
views over 370 million.

NTES - NetEase.com  $55.30

PLAY (sell naked put):

Action    Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd     Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL PUT  SEP 45    NQG UI   2,757   0.40  44.60   5.9%   0.9% *
SELL PUT  SEP 50    NQG UJ   2,562   1.20  48.80  11.9%   2.5%


**************
TTWO - Take-Two  $36.38  *** Earnings Rally! ***

Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO) is an integrated
global developer, marketer, distributor and publisher of
interactive entertainment software games and accessories for
the PC, PlayStation, PlayStation2, Nintendo Game Boy Color,
Nintendo GameCube, Nintendo Game Boy Advance and the Xbox.
The company publishes and develops products through various
wholly owned subsidiaries including Rockstar Games, Rockstar
Studios, Gathering, Joytech, PopTop, Global Star and under the
Take-Two brand name.  The company maintains sales and marketing
offices in Cincinnati, New York, Toronto, London, Paris, Munich,
Vienna, Copenhagen, Milan, Sydney and Auckland.

TTWO - Take-Two  $36.38

PLAY (sell naked put):

Action    Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd     Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL PUT  SEP 32.5  TUO UZ      60   0.30  32.20   4.9%   0.9% *
SELL PUT  SEP 35    TUO UG       4   0.75  34.25   9.6%   2.2%


**************

BULLISH PLAYS - CREDIT SPREADS

These candidates are based on the underlying issue's technical
history or trend.  The probability of profit in these positions
may also be higher than other plays in the same strategy, due to
small disparities in option pricing however, each play should be
evaluated for portfolio suitability and reviewed with regard to
your strategic approach and trading style.

***************
SNDK - SanDisk  $61.21  *** Next Leg Up? ***

SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) designs, manufactures and markets flash
memory storage products that are used in a wide variety of
electronic systems and devices.  SanDisk's products are
compatible with a number of consumer electronics applications
including digital cameras, PDAs, portable digital music players,
digital video recorders and mobile telephones, as well as in
industrial and communications applications, such as communications
routers and switches and wireless communications base stations.
The company's products include removable CompactFlash (CF) cards,
SD cards, miniSD cards, xD-Picture cards, SmartMedia cards,
FlashDisk cards, MultiMediaCards (MMC), Memory Stick and Memory
Stick Pro version, CompactFlash and SD card Wi-Fi access and
storage cards, Cruzer, Cruzer Mini Universal Serial Bus flash
drives, plus-embedded flash chipsets and NAND flash components
ranging in storage capacities ranging from 16 megabytes to four
gigabytes.

SNDK - SanDisk  $61.21

PLAY (conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  SEP-50.00  SWQ-UJ  OI=5806  ASK=$0.35
SELL PUT  SEP-55.00  SWQ-UK  OI=2951  BID=$0.70
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.35-$0.45
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=8% B/E=$54.60


**************
SYMC - Symantec  $58.48  *** Bullish Break-Out Continues! ***

Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) provides content and network security
software and appliance solutions to enterprises, individuals
and service providers.  The company provides client, gateway
and server security solutions for virus protection, firewall
and virtual private network (VPN), security management,
intrusion detection, Internet content and e-mail filtering,
remote management technologies and security services to
enterprises and service providers worldwide.  Symantec has
offices in 36 countries worldwide.  The company views its
business in five operating segments: enterprise security,
enterprise administration, consumer products, services and
other activities.

SYMC - Symantec  $58.48

PLAY (very conservative - bullish/credit spread):

BUY  PUT  SEP-50.00  SYQ-UJ  OI=1387  ASK=$0.25
SELL PUT  SEP-55.00  SYQ-UK  OI=1235  BID=$0.70
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.45-$0.60
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=11% B/E=$54.50


**************

BEARISH PLAYS - NAKED CALLS

Based on analysis of option pricing and the underlying stock's
technical background, these positions meet our fundamental
criteria for bearish "premium-selling" strategies.  Each issue
has robust option premiums, a well-defined resistance area and
a high probability of remaining below the target strike prices.
As with any recommendations, these positions should be carefully
evaluated for portfolio suitability and reviewed with regard to
your strategic approach and personal trading style.

WARNING: THE RISK IN SELLING UNCOVERED OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL!

The sale of uncovered calls entails considerable financial risk,
far more than the initial margin or collateral required to open
the position.  The maximum financial obligation for the sale of a
naked option is the strike price (of the underlying stock) that
is sold.  Although this obligation is reduced by the premium from
the sale of the option, a writer of options must have the cash or
collateral equivalent of the sold strike price in reserve at all
times.  The simple fact is: stocks often experience large price
swings, exponentially increasing the margin maintenance and very
possibly causing a devastating shortfall in your portfolio.  It
is also important that you consider using trading stops on naked
option positions to help limit losses when a stock price moves in
a volatile manner.  Many professional traders suggest closing the
position when the underlying share value moves beyond the sold
strike, or using a "buy-to-close" stop order at a price that is no
more than twice the original premium received from the sold option.

***************
ANPI - Angiotech Pharma  $41.60  *** Technical Break-Down! ***

Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ANPI) is engaged in the fusion
of medical device technologies and pharmaceutical therapies.  The
company's first product was a drug-coated stent.  Angiotech's goal
is to develop other products to enhance the performance of medical
devices and biomaterials through the use of pharmatherapeutics.  In
September 2002, the company and Cohesion Technologies agreed to a
merger in which Cohesion will merge with a wholly owned subsidiary
of Angiotech, with Cohesion continuing as a wholly owned subsidiary
of the company.  The transaction is set to close during or before
the first quarter of the fiscal year that will end on September 30,
2003.

ANPI - Angiotech Pharma  $41.60

PLAY (sell naked call):

Action     Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd      Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL CALL  SEP 50    AUJ IJ   3,518  0.35  50.35   7.2%   0.7% *
SELL CALL  SEP 45    AUJ II   4,533  1.05  46.05  13.1%   2.3%


**************
JCOM - J2 Global  $33.89  *** Post-Split Slump ***

J2 Global Communications (NASDAQ:JCOM) provides outsourced,
value-added messaging and communications services to individuals
and businesses worldwide.  JCOM offers faxing and voicemail
solutions, document management solutions, Web-initiated
conference calling and unified messaging services.  JCOM
markets its services principally under the brand names eFax,
jConnect, JFAX, eFax Corporate, jBlast, eFax Broadcast, Hotsend
and PaperMaster.  The company's core services, each of which
operates in large and distinct markets, include fax, voicemail,
document management, conference calling and unified messaging.
In January 2003, the company acquired Cyberbox, a Hong Kong-based
message management company.

JCOM - J2 Global  $33.89

PLAY (sell naked call):

Action     Month &   Option    Open   Last  Cost    Max.  Simple
Req'd      Strike    Symbol    Int.   Price Basis  Yield  Yield

SELL CALL  SEP 40    JQF IH      73  0.70  40.70  15.4%   1.7% *
SELL CALL  SEP 35    JQF IG     271  1.90  36.90  23.7%   5.1%


**************

BEARISH PLAYS - CREDIT SPREADS

All of these positions are favorable candidates for "bear-call"
credit spreads, based on the current price or trading range of
the underlying issue and its recent technical history or trend.
The probability of profit from these positions may be higher
than other plays in the same strategy, due to disparities in
option pricing.  However, current news and market sentiment will
have an effect on these issues, so review each play individually
and make your own decision about its future outcome.

**************
LLY - Eli Lilly  $62.10   *** Drug-Delay Worries! ***

Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE:LLY) discovers, develops, manufactures and
sells pharmaceutical products.  The company manufactures and
distributes its products through owned or leased facilities in
the U.S., Puerto Rico and 19 other countries.  Over all, Eli
Lilly's products are sold in approximately 150 countries.  Most
of the products the company sells were discovered or developed
by its own scientists and its success depends to a great extent on
its ability to continue to discover and develop new pharmaceutical
products.  Eli Lilly directs its research efforts primarily toward
the search for products to diagnose, prevent and treat human
diseases.  The company also conducts research to find products to
treat diseases in animals and to increase the efficiency of animal
food production.

LLY - Eli Lilly  $62.10

PLAY (moderately aggressive - bearish/credit spread):

BUY  CALL  SEP-70.00  LLY-IN  OI=3286  ASK=$0.15
SELL CALL  SEP-65.00  LLY-IM  OI=6846  BID=$0.50
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.35-$0.45
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=7% B/E=$65.35


**************
SOHU - Sohu.com  $34.05  *** Failing Rally ***

Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) operates an Internet portal in China
consisting of sophisticated Chinese language Web navigational
and search capabilities, 17 main content channels, Web-based
communications, alumni club and community services and a
platform for e-commerce, subscription and short messaging
services.  Each of its interest-specific main channels contains
multi-level sub-channels that cover a comprehensive range of
topics, including news, business, entertainment, sports and
careers.  The company also offers free and paid Web-based e-mail.

SOHU - Sohu.com  $34.05

PLAY (less conservative - bearish/credit spread):

BUY  CALL  SEP-45.00  UZK-II  OI=4657  ASK=$0.20
SELL CALL  SEP-40.00  UZK-IH  OI=5790  BID=$0.45
INITIAL NET-CREDIT TARGET=$0.25-$0.35
POTENTIAL PROFIT(max)=6% B/E=$40.30


**************

SEE DISCLAIMER - SECTION 1

**************


**********
Watch List
**********

Three-Lettered Stocks To Watch

3M Co - MMM - close: 142.59 change: +2.46

WHAT TO WATCH: It's the battle of the analysts.  Tuesday shares
of MMM suffered from the one-two punch of a negative Barron's
article claiming the stock is too high and a CSFB comment saying
MMM is only worth $130.  Shares fell to $140, so investors didn't
take it too much to heart.  However, Wednesday witnessed a nice
bounce off that $140 level with USB defending the stock.  USB
believes this is a great growth story and has a price target of
$170.  (Don't forget that MMM is due to split in several weeks).

Chart=


---

Eaton Corp - ETN - close: 93.66 change: +0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: Friday's breakout over the $90-92 level of
resistance for ETN has seen little follow through despite two
days of gains for the markets.  Normally that might concern us if
we were bullish, but the intraday charts show a trend of lower
highs as if ETN were coiling for its next move higher.  Remember
the old 90/100 rule of thumb?  Most stocks that trade $90 (on the
way up) also tend to keep the rally going long enough to hit the
psychological $100 level.  A trigger over $94.25 might work or a
bounce in the $90-92 area.

Chart=


---

Intl Business Machine - IBM - close: 86.36 change: +0.57

WHAT TO WATCH: Big Blue was a main contributor to the market's
big gains on Tuesday with a huge move of its own.  The flood of
positive analyst comments about tech and some specific comments
from Dan Niles at Lehman Brothers for IBM fueled the stock's jump
from $82 to $86.  This morning we saw a continuation of that
rally until it failed right under the $87.50 resistance level.
With such a clear failed rally under resistance and several
points of short-term gains to be taken Big Blue could become a
big target tomorrow if the markets see any weakness.

Chart=


---
Wellpoint Health Network - WLP - close: 79.28 change: +0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of WLP could be shaping up into a bearish
play.  The stock rebounded smartly from a dip under the $75 level
a week ago and ran straight for the $80 mark.  Shares finally hit
$80 today but couldn't break it.  This afternoon as we approached
the closing bell WLP start to slip.  Aggressive bulls could use
the failed rally with a very tight stop to garner any drop back
towards $75.  It's risky but the tight stop placement helps limit
your risk.

Chart=



**************
MARKET POSTURE
**************

Are the Bears on Vacation or Just Simply Hibernating?

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