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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 12/24/2003

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 12-24-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap:                  Mad Bulls Take Day Off
Futures Wrap:          Throwaway Session
Index Trader Wrap:     So that's why Santa chose Reindeer!


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
12-24-2003               High      Low
DJIA    10305.12 -32.81 10341.48 10305.12
NASDAQ   1969.23 - 5.55  1974.31  1964.88
S&P 100   542.01 - 1.41   543.42   541.71
S&P 500  1094.04 - 1.98  1096.02  1092.73
RUS 2000  552.35 - 2.68   555.03   552.23
DJ TRANS 2990.15 -16.46  3007.27  2985.08
VIX        16.65 + 0.16    16.77    16.66
VXO        16.12 + 0.55    16.25    15.69
VXN        23.33 - 0.16    23.77    23.09
TRIN          1.34
PUT/CALL      0.70
*******************************************************************


Mad Bulls Take Day Off
Jonathan Levinson

With volume barely exceeding 600M Nasdaq shares and 500M on the
NYSE, there was little to see and little to do.  The Dow had a
weak session, with the Transports breaking below 3000 on a
closing basis.  The absence of a significant selloff was
impressive in light of news of a mad-cow disease outbreak (no,
that's cows, not bulls), as well as disappointing durable goods
orders and new home sales.  Traders didn't do much of anything
today, and if that trend continues, Friday could see more or the
same.

Volatility set more lows today, with the VXO spending a good part
of the session below 16.  Despite this, we saw no new highs out
of the indices, and if it were a higher volume, full session, it
would have looked like preliminary confirmation of a top on the
Dow and SPX.


Daily chart of the Dow



The daily chart of the Dow looks like a correction waiting to
happen, bullish or bearish.  Support at 10300 held today, and
below that, 10280 and 10200 are the next trendline resistance
areas to watch.  First price confluence is way below at 10000,
followed by 9880.  Upside resistance begins at 10350 until 10400.
Suffice it to say that without volume, those upper limits are
very unlikely to be tested this year.


Daily chart of the Nasdaq



The Nasdaq was stronger than the Dow today, but it has a lot of
ground to make up after lagging so badly this month.  The daily
cycles are in an upphase, nowhere near as toppy as on the Dow.
Support at 1935, 1900 and 1880 are the key levels to watch, below
which any decline should accelerate.


It was announced overnight that a single case of Mad Cow Disease
had been identified in Washington State.  With further tests
pending, the major importers of US beef issued import bans,
including Japan, South Korea, Russia, Taiwan, Malaysia,
Singapore, Australia and others, while the US ordered a recall of
at least 10,000 pounds of meat.  Almost as rapid was UBS analyst
David Palmer's defense of MCD and other industry-sensitive
stocks, as he went on record to say that "If the stocks open as
weak as we expect, then we believe this could provide an even
more compelling entry point for McDonald's," Palmer said. "We
would also view this positively for Wendy's (which already has
tremendous near-term momentum. In addition, we believe the likely
beef cost decrease could prove particularly propitious for
Brinker, which has significant exposure to rising beef costs in
2004."  MCD closed lower by 5.22%, and cattle futures closed
limit down.  Little mention was made of a Senate Agriculture
subcommittee discussion of America's vulnerability to terrorism
targeting the food chain.  For more on this connection, see
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/11/19/165032.shtml.

In economic news, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released
the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending
December 19.   Its Market Composite Index of mortgage loan
applications, which comprises mortgage and refi applications,
decreased by 6.8% to 631.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis from
677.2 in the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, the Index
decreased by 7.7 percent compared with last week and was down
34.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.  This
decline occurred despite a decrease in the average contract
interest rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage from 5.71% to 5.62%.

At 8:30 it was announced that durable goods orders for November
dropped 3.1%, the largest drop since September 2002 and well
below expectations for a .6% increase.  This drop follows four
months of consecutive rises, however. October's durable goods
orders were revised higher to a 4 percent gain. Orders for
computers and other electronics sank 10.8 percent, including a 40
percent drop in communication equipment orders. A quick drop in
equity futures on the report's release was stayed by the release
of the initial claims data a few moments later.

Initial jobless claims dropped in the latest week to an expected
353,000 new claims, bringing the 4 week moving average of initial
claims to 361,750 and continuing claims down 38,000 to 3,269,000,
the lowest level since September 2001.  These are still high
absolute numbers, but represent a marked improvement over the
400K+ readings that dominated a few months ago.  I've attached a
chart of initial claims from the Office of Workforce Security:

Chart of initial jobless claims





In other news, Italy's largest food group, Parmalat, filed for
bankruptcy protection under an emergency government decree,
following allegations of fraud and accounting irregularities
estimated above $10B.

The Commerce Department reported that new home sales dropped 2.4%
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.08 million, the slowest
sales pace since May. There were 363,000 new homes on the market
rose to 363,000, the highest in more than seven years.  New home
sales came in at 1.08M, vs. expectations of 1.12 million. The
median sales price was up 15.5% year-over-year to a record
$209,200, another indication of the effects of the Fed's
reflationary efforts.

News of an explosion at the Baghdad Hotel was met with a yawn, as
was the majority of the news today.  While the markets did move,
there was little conviction in either direction. Until traders
and volume return, we can expect more of the same, barring more
significant external news.  Here's my prayer for an uneventful
holiday season.  See you on Friday.



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************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Throwaway Session
Jonathan Levinson

Volume was very light and interest was very low, with traders
contemplating their navels for today's half-day pre-holiday
session.  Gold, oil and treasuries rose as the dollar broke below
recent support to new bear market lows, while equities traded
mixed, with YM and ES finishing negative.

Daily Pivots (generated with a pivot algorithm and unverified):


			

Note regarding pivot matrix:  The support, pivot and resistance
levels above are derived from the high, low and closing price
levels by a simple mathematical formula.  They are not intended
to be predictive of market turning points or to serve as targets,
but rather represent the range retracement levels as generated by
the pivot algorithm.  Do not think of them as market "calls"
or predictions.  Like any technically-derived indicator or price
level, the pivot matrix values should be regarded as decision
points at which to evaluate current market conditions.  Visit us
in the Futures Monitor for our realtime views of the various
markets covered here.


10 minute chart of the US Dollar Index



Amid news of mad cow disease and terror threats, disappointing
durable goods orders and new home sales, the US Dollar Index did
an Acapulco-cliff-dive through this week's support, breaking
below 87.51 before attempting a bounce.  The CRB was fractionally
lower on the limit-down selloff in cattle and agriculturals,
while oil and metals rose strongly.


Daily chart of February gold



February gold printed a higher high at 413.50 and higher low at
411.50, closing higher by 1.20 at 412.80 on volume of 179
contracts. The Wedge continues as price nears its apex, and
today's strength gave us an uptick in the daily cycle
oscillators.  Overall, nothing happened in the gold futures
today, and such on very low volume.  HUI and XAU advanced, while
silver closed at 5.805, printing a new high at 5.81.


Daily chart of the ten year note yield



Ten year bonds rose sharply today, with the TNX dropping 7.6 bps
to 4.193%, a surprise break below the lower trendline as the
daily cycle downphase reasserted itself.  Support is at 4.1%, and
Friday's anticipated light volume should help to muddy the waters
further.


Daily NQ candles



The NQ added a point and a half today after tickling resistance
with an intraday high at 1451.  The daily cycle upphase
strengthened further, and the 1451 line is beginning to look like
a possible rising triangle resistance line.  If so, then we can
expect to see an upside break shortly.  I expect heavy resistance
all the way to 1460, above which the shorts could start a
covering rally.  To the downside, a move below 1440 should bring
us to a rapid test of 1425-30 support.


30 minute 20 day chart of the NQ



The NQ closed at 1446, right on the rising support line that
forms the triangle resistance noted above, and also a potential
reverse head and shoulders neckline projecting all the way to
1525.  I don't personally find that interpretation compelling,
but it's possible, and bullish scenarios have had a way of
playing out this year. A 30 minute cycle downphase aborted early,
and then the ensuing bounce aborted as well.  This aimlessness is
what's expected on Friday as well, with most of the market
staying home.


Daily ES candles



ES dropped .50 to close at 1093.  The move did not alter the
outlook at all, with a day high of 1095.25 and a low at 1089.50.
The daily cycle upphase continues near the top of its range.


20 day 30 minute chart of the ES



Like the NQ, the ES bounced and then stalled, with the 30 minute
cycle oscillators now mixed at the middle of their ranges.  It's
an impressive feat, given the mad-cow dollar-decline terror-alert
news.  Traders didn't appear to care enough to play bets in
either direction.  With the ES closing at 1093, look for a break
of 1090 support or 1096 resistance to get the ball rolling.


Daily YM candles



The YM dropped 27 points, closing at 1083, right on rising
support.  Next trendline support is found at 10220, with the
daily cycle oscillators finally showing the slightest hint of
exhaustion in their upwardly trending move.


20 day 30 minute chart of the YM



YM broke below its rising trendline at the close on the 30 minute
chart, with a 30 minute cycle upphase aborting very early.  This
could and should be the start of a significant break, but volume
was light, and Bollinger support is just below at 10269.  Unless
there's a strong continuation on Friday, it's just a shake for
now.

Happy holidays to all and we'll see you in the Futures Monitor on
Friday.


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

So that's why Santa chose Reindeer!

A case of mad cow disease set the tone for today's trade, and
with few traders or investors around to trade, the main
revelation traders took away from today's trade, was how smart
Santa Claus was when he chose reindeer over cows to pull his
sleigh.

While there was heartbreak in for form of lower stock prices for
company's that had anything to do with serving, distributing, or
growing beef; can you imagine having to break the news to little
Suzy or Johnny that Santa might be delayed because his team of
cows were not allowed to cross international borders because a
cow in Mabton, Washington was tested positive for mad-cow
disease?

February Live Cattle futures (lc04g) $0.89175 -1.65% were traded
limit down, where some cattle futures traders expect limit down
trade to continue in coming sessions.  Limit down for the cattle
futures markets is $0.015 per pound, which a stock trader might
associate with not being able to trade should trading be halted
for the day if the Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,305.19 -0.31% fell
30% in a single session.  While cattle futures were open for
trade at limit down, there were few buyers to be found.

Some quick notes I ran across; is that the cattle industry is a
$175 billion industry in the U.S.  In the past year, consumer
bought $50 billion worth of beef products, while exports of beef
contributed $3 billion worth of benefit to U.S. exports.

The case of mad-cow sparked an immediate response from some of
the country's main trading partners.  Japan, Korea and Russia all
announced bans on imports of U.S. beef, mirroring a similar
decision taken by U.S. authorities earlier in the year when
Canada confirmed reports of a case of BSE in its livestock.
Later in the morning, Mexico also announced it was putting a ban
in place.

The National Cattleman's Beef Association chief economist Gregg
Doud said he thought cattle prices could fall 10% to 15% if
current import bans were not lifted in coming days.  David
Palmer, of UBS said the bans on imports of U.S. beef could send
prices down 20% or more.

Restaurant stock analysts, that cover beef-related food retailers
like McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) $23.96 -5.22%, Wendy's (NYSE:WEN)
$37.79 -4.7% and Jack in the Box (NYSE:JBX) $20.76 -5.63% had
mixed comments on the sector.  While the decline in beef prices
would be expected to have a positive impact on margins, the wild
card was what impact the news of mad-cow disease in the U.S.
might have on consumer's consumption habits.

While the single case of mad-cow disease grabbed the bulk of
today's headlines, economic data released found little reaction.

November new home sales were released at 10:00 AM EST, where new
home sales fell to an annual rate of 1.082 million units, which
was below economists' forecast of 1.125 million units.  The Dow
Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 603.71 -0.34% slipped 2
points lower on the session, but up from its morning lows of
598.66.

The 3.1% decline in November durable goods orders was a negative
surprise to economists' forecast for +1.0%.  Economists seemed to
shrug off the data as being volatile and not overly concerning
when considering the upward revision to October's previously
reported 3.3% to 4.0%.  While many economists look for December
durable goods data to snap back, if it doesn't, the ongoing
strength in business investment will be called into question.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 12/24/2003 Close



The NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,350 +0.2% gained 12 points to close
at a 19-month high and nears a relative high of 6,460 set in March
of 2000.  Meanwhile the small cap Russell-2000 Index
(RUT.X) 552.35 -0.48% was the greater percentage loser of the major
indices, falling losses in
today's trade.

I would caution reading too much into today's trade, especially
at the more institutionally traded NYSE, where the bulk of
institutional money managers were likely not in the office.

Pivot Analysis Matrix -



I'd consider today's trade a non-event.  The Dow Industrials
(INDU) traded a very tight 36-point range, and Friday might
considered a volatile trade if the Industrials were to be able to
round-trip trade within its DAILY S2 and DAILY R2.

If I were to try and find any correlations at Friday's DAILY S2
within the WEEKLY or MONTHLY levels I couldn't, but upside
resistance levels abound at the DAILY R2 and WEEKLY R1 levels.

Russell-2000 Index (RUT.X) Chart - WEEKLY Intervals



The small caps that comprise the Russell-2000 Index ($RUT.X) have
just about retraced 80.9% of their bear market decline.  Where
has the time gone!

With November durable goods orders falling, tonight's a good
night to quickly review the small caps, which by and large will
benefit from business spending.  The only cautionary item I see
in the above chart is that a longer-term WEEKLY interval view
shows MACD just edging below its signal.  While not all small
caps that comprise the Russell-2000 Index are 4-lettered stocks
listed on the NASDAQ, the recent reversal back lower in the
NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) may be an internal
indicator to have some small cap bulls raising some stops to
protect gains.

While the 80.9% retracement at 558, say 560 would be deemed a
technical level of resistance, I'm not sure there's much stock
owned by bulls above the 560 level to be providing overhead
supply.

NASDAQ-Composite Index (COMPX.X) - WEEKLY Intervals



I thought I'd take an identical retracement bracket on the
NASDAQ-Composite as shown for the Russell-2000 Index ($RUT.X).
This chart still shocks me.  What a pounding the COMPX took,
while at the same time... the sky is the limit!

There's a lot of what some traders and investors might consider
"garbage" listed on the NASDAQ, but there's also some stocks that
are rising to all-time highs.  eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) $64.02 +0.43%
traded second-consecutive all-time high today, which would
equivalent to the COMPX trading 5,134.  Research in Motion
(NASDAQ:RIMM) $68.05 -2.24% edged back today, after surging more
than 50% on Tuesday.

With the NASDAQ Composite looking range bound between 1,877 and
2,000 one has to wonder if stocks like EBAY and RIMM are
overvalued, or is the broader NASDAQ Composite overvalued?  It's
all relative isn't it?  Alert set at 1,875 for weakness, and
2,005 for strength.

S&P 100 Index Chart - Daily Intervals



The bar chart of the OEX with DAILY S2 and DAILY R2 ties in
nicely with the WEEKLY Pivot retracement.  While the Stock
Trader's Almanac notes that the day before Christmas saw the INDU
up 8 of last 12 years, that didn't pan out today as it was a mad-
cow, not a crazed bull that ran on Wall Street today.  However,
when we consider the OEX is currently showing a 4% gain for the
month of December, that well above the 52-year average gain of
1.8% for the month of December, the most bullish month of the
year.

NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock (AMEX:QQQ) - Daily Intervals



The only reason the Q's finished with a gain is that is did see
some selling late yesterday's just before its close on the mad-
cow news.  NASDAQ-100 component breadth was negative at 28-72
with IVGN +6.75%, SNDK +3.26% and AAPL +3.03%.  Decliners found
MCHP -4.55%, IACI -2.29% and RIMM -2.24%.

'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the Q's,
fractional gains were still found, despite mad-cow news;

The sectors finished mixed, some red and some green,
as today's trade was thin, if not simply lean;

Most traders were gone, they hadn't a care,
some last minute shopping, for those that might dare;

And me and my pivots, my X's and O's
looked for one last trade, in what I don't know?

When out in the kitchen there arose such a clatter
I sprang from my desk to see what was the matter

Away through the dining room I flew like a flash,
and there was dog Drake, with his nose in the trash.

Get out of there darned you, before you get hurt!
When wouldn't you know it, a QCharts alert!

Its eBay I tell you, its trading a high!
A bullish reminder of past years gone by.

The trade ended early, it ended too soon,
if you live in the Midwest, it ended at noon.

I laugh at myself as I try to make rhyme,
I should end this wrap now, yes you know its about time.

Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night!

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 12-24-2003
Copyright 2003, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Spreads, Combinations &
Premium-Selling Plays:   A Merry Christmas Indeed!

! Holiday Schedule Notice

Due to the Christmas holiday the Option Investor Newsletter
will continue coverage of the Market Sentiment, Market Posture,
New Plays, Play Updates and the rest of the newsletter on
Tuesday, December 30th, 2003.

We will continue to email the market wrap after each day the
U.S. stock market is open.

Thank you and happy holidays!



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*********************************************
SPREADS, COMBINATIONS & PREMIUM-SELLING PLAYS
*********************************************

A Merry Christmas Indeed!
By Ray Cummins

Stocks drifted lower Wednesday as the Santa Claus Rally came to
an end after three weeks of bullish activity.

Concerns over new reports of "mad-cow" disease and some negative
economic news conspired to push the major equity averages lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 36 points at 10,305,
its first loss in six sessions, amid weakness in Alcoa (NYSE:AA),
Altria (NYSE:MO), Boeing (NYSE:BA), General Electric (NYSE:GE),
Honeywell (NYSE:HON) and Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS).  The technology
segment fared slightly better with the NASDAQ Composite falling
only 5 points to 1,969, despite gains in the semiconductor sector.
The broader market S&P 500 index fell 2 points to 1,094 on losses
in restaurant, steel, airline, aluminum, and retail & department
store stocks.  Trading volumes were light with 517 million shares
changing hands on the NYSE while 641 million shares were crossed
on the NASDAQ.  Winners outpaced losers by a small margin on the
Big Board, but the opposite was true for stocks on the technology
exchange.  Treasury prices rose as day progressed.  The 10-year
note finished up 16/32 to yield 4.19%.

*************

NEW POSITIONS

There will be no "New Plays" today as the editor of this section
is away from the market, enjoying the holiday season with family
and friends.  The Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling section will
return on January 7, 2004.

Merry Christmas!

**************


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FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you may go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you may simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


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**********

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