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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 03/23/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                 Tuesday 03-23-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                       1 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Good Signs
Futures Markets: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: See Note
Market Sentiment: Demoralizing


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      03-23-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10063.64 -  1.10 10131.35 10047.41 1.77 bln 1771/1352
NASDAQ   1901.80 -  8.10  1928.61  1898.94 1.79 bln 1559/1542
S&P 100   535.15 -  0.95   539.27   534.18   Totals 3330/2894
S&P 500  1093.90 -  1.50  1101.52  1091.57
W5000   10693.36 -  4.40 10769.42 10669.16
SOX       457.46 -  1.40   465.87   453.37
RUS 2000  560.92 +  1.93   566.05   558.51
DJ TRANS 2763.12 + 12.30  2788.21  2751.60
VIX        20.67 -  0.91    21.33    20.01
VXO (VIX-O)20.45 -  0.98    21.78    19.70
VXN        26.84 -  0.31    27.21    26.25
Total Volume 3,930M
Total UpVol  1,820M
Total DnVol  2,048M
Total Adv  3751
Total Dcl  3256
52wk Highs  159
52wk Lows    54
TRIN       1.21
NAZTRIN    1.49
PUT/CALL   0.68
************************************************************

Good Signs

The markets rebounded strongly at the open and celebrated
that support had held and terrorists had disappeared again.
Unfortunately that celebration lasted about as long as the
opening bell. It was not a good sign that the indexes almost
returned to Monday's lows before rebounding to the highs of
the day around 3:PM. It was not a good sign that they failed
at those highs for the second time and sold off once again
in the last hour. It was not a good sign that we closed on
support instead of resistance. It was not a day for good
signs.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily



The only economic report for the day was positive but did
not excite traders. The Retail Sales Snapshot rose +0.2%
for the week and pushed the year over year growth to +7.1%.
Most of that growth is due to very weak comparisons last
year. Helping the gains for the week was mild weather and
the approach of Easter. The majority of retailers said
sales were at or ahead of plan for the month. Target said
same store sales were on track to exceed expectations and
Wal-Mart said they expected to hit the high end of their
forecast for +4% to +6% growth. Consumers my be saying
they are concerned about jobs and the economy but they
are continuing to spend. As tax refunds start to flow we
can expect those sales to rise even more.

Wednesday will make up for the lack of economic reports
with a flurry of events.

7:00 Mortgage Application Survey (last 1,117.1)
8:30 Consumer Comfort Index (last -22)
8:30 Durable Goods (est +1.7%, last -1.8%)
10:00 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (last 0.49)
10:00 New Home Sales (est 1.084M, last 1.106M)
10:00 Monthly Mass Layoffs (last 2,428)

The only really material report is the CFNAI at 10:00.
This will give us a peak at what the next ISM may look
like.

Personally I don't think any of them will matter. The
economics are not what's moving the market. The markets
are moving on news, negative news. All the good dog and
pony show positioning for the day was worthless. The GE
CEO was on CNBC and said this was the best economy in
over four years. He said plastics orders up +20%,
appliances +12%, airplane parts +15% with nine of their
eleven businesses growing by double digits and the stock
closed down and at the low of the day.

The markets are definitely in the midst of a phase where
changes are being made. They appear to be headed south
and nothing is going to stop them. All sectors, all stocks
all sizes are all going the same direction. I heard one
commentator today mention market correlation at turning
points. Normally markets trade more or less in the same
direction but move in different tangents according to the
individual stocks in the indexes. Housing stocks may be
up while biotechs are down, etc. Very rarely do all markets
trade exactly the same way and that is happening now. This
suggests it is not a fundamental change. Earnings are still
rising and warnings have been nonexistent. That is not the
problem. The problem is the new risk paradigm and funds
are liquidating stocks across the board.

We have the "new" terrorist threat from Al Qaeda. I say new
because they could be planning on influencing our elections
with specific attacks after their success in Spain. We have
the new Hamas threat where they are claiming they will get
back at us for their leaders death. We have the new threat
that Bush might be vulnerable to losing votes because of
the 9/11 commission and the Clarke attack. The markets are
afraid Kerry might actually win. The uncertainty from all
these events is causing serious indigestion for traders.
Bonds are continuing to rise, money is rotating out of
stocks and funds are seeing cash outflows. In short either
the bull died or maybe it is just sick but pulse is
definitely missing.

The Dow tried twice today to climb out of the Monday hole
and failed both times. Twice today it failed at 10125 and
closed very near the low of the day at 10050. We still
have not touched the 10K level but came very close at
10012 on Monday without any material bounce. The Nasdaq
came within one point of Monday's lows at 1397 and also
closed near its lows for the day.

Today should have been a dead cat bounce, relief rally,
bargain hunting rebound, etc. Pick your own label. When
we have a very big drop on 10:1 down volume that punctuates
several days of losses the normal reaction is a gain the
following day. Obviously these are not normal conditions.

The lack of a rebound and the velocity of the sell off at
the close should be telling us not to sleep in tomorrow.
After the close futures continued to slip without any
additional news. Tomorrow could start out with a loss and
with the indexes right on the edge of the support cliff
any material loss could easily break that support. The
Dow closed at 10066 and the Nasdaq at 1901 with the S&P
already under support at 1094. In non technical terms
this could get ugly quick.

Should the Dow move under 10K and hold the rats will be
fighting each other to abandon ship. News driven changes
in market sentiment can take on a life of their own and
they almost always over react and over reach. Once the
herd smells smoke and begins to move away from danger it
can easily turn into a stampede. Despite the 10:1 down
volume on Monday the selling was orderly. Until it becomes
disorderly it may not provide the capitulation event needed
to end the selling. This suggests we could break current
support and we could see another drop again tomorrow. If
it does not happen on Wednesday then there is a chance
we could dodge the bullet. Once traders take time to catch
their breath the greed principle will return and the
selling pressure should ease.

On Wednesday AMAT will host its annual meeting and we could
get some positive news from that sector. After the close
Micron will post earnings and there are some rumors that
DRAM chips are available on an allocation basis only for
the first time in eight years. Any news on this from Micron
should help the SOX which is fighting to hold above six
month lows. After the bell today PMCS said Q1 revenue would
be at the high end of its prior guidance. They also said
their book-to-bill for the March quarter was already over
1.0	with orders rising. It is news like this that should
be lifting techs but instead it has been ignored.

Goldman Sachs was the star of the day when they posted
profits that best estimates by 85 cents at $2.50 a share.
They said equity related business as well as an increase
in corporate activity levels added to their gains. GS was
thanked with a nine cent gain in the stock price.

If you are like me and have been waiting for EBAY to pull
back for an entry then today was your day. My alarm at
$65 went off this morning after a negative article in
Business Week suggested the company was over priced. EBAY
traded over $69.50 on Friday and under $65 today. That is
about the biggest two day drop in recent memory. The 100
dma is just under $64 and has not been touched since Nov.
If you like EBAY this may be a buying opportunity for a
stock that refuses to drop. Unfortunately when markets
are weak for external reasons even good stocks sink with
it. Look for evidence the drop is over before making a
bid on this auction.

I would be especially cautious about entering new positions
until the volatility eases and "normal" markets return. Of
course that depends on what your definition of normal may
be. With the current overnight sentiment indicating we
may open down on Wednesday I would look for something
that resembled a capitulation event to go long. Look for
heavy volume and a large imbalance on the internals and
the appearance of a bottom being formed. There is no
guarantee we will get one or that there will be a rebound
but that would be my target for a long entry this week.
Until then trade the trend.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


***************
FUTURES MARKETS
***************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp



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********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Check the Site Later Tonight For Jeff's Index Trader Article
http://members.OptionInvestor.com/itrader/marketwrap/iw_032304_1.asp


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****************
MARKET SENTIMENT
****************

Demoralizing
- J. Brown

Ouch!  After two days of heavy losses the markets were hoping for
an oversold bounce from support and we got it but it failed to
last.  By the close nearly every index large and small was
painting a failed rally pattern suggesting more weakness in store
for us tomorrow.  The good news is that the Dow Industrials and
the NASDAQ are still above key support levels but they'll
probably be challenging them again tomorrow.

Looking through the list of major indices several of them have
joined the NASDAQ in the fight to hold their 200-dma's. The Dow
Transports, the GHA hardware index and the GSO software index are
all hovering just above their 200-dma's.  The SOX has closed for
the second day under this technical level but is still holding
support at the 450 mark.

Sectors that have seen a lot less profit taking are hitting their
own support levels.  The BTK biotech index, the RLX retail index
and the IUX Insurance index are all trading under their 50-dma's.
Today's decline adds the OIX oil index and the OSX oil services
index to the under-the-50-dma list.

Overall market internals were mixed.  Advancing stocks stumbled
past decliners 16 to 11 on the NYSE but just barely edged past
losers 1570 to 1500 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume did outweigh down
volume on the NYSE but it was mirrored by a jump in down volume
on the NASDAQ.

Hopefully tomorrow's durable goods orders and new home sales
numbers will offer Wall Street some positive news to focus on.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  7929
Current     : 10063

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10186
 50-dma: 10501
200-dma:  9804



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  843
Current     : 1093

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1111
 50-dma: 1136
200-dma: 1055



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1014
Current     : 1370

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1405
 50-dma: 1478
200-dma: 1379



-----------------------------------------------------------------

These volatility indices all hit new relative highs on Monday and
this morning's bounce in the market pulled them all back but the
trend appears to be up.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.67 -0.91
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 20.45 -0.95
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.84 -0.31

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.68        819,911       554,977
Equity Only    0.57        641,833       366,452
OEX            0.94         29,159        27,484
QQQ            1.29         74,206        95,709


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          70.1    - 2     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    38.0    - 6     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       73.8    - 4     Bull Correction
S&P 100       82.0    - 3     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.67
10-dma: 1.71
21-dma: 1.66
55-dma: 1.19


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1633      1570
Decliners    1179      1500

New Highs      76        66
New Lows       19        30

Up Volume    935M      818M
Down Vol.    799M      964M

Total Vol.  1763M     1800M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/16/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Hmm... there's been a lot of action in the commercial traders'
positions the last few weeks.  It's almost like they can't decide
what direction to go.  The latest data shows them switching from
net bearish to net bullish again.   Small traders are more
consistent and remain net bullish although less so than recent
weeks.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/24/04      417,490   416,502       988     0.0%
03/02/04      411,932   418,936    (7,004)   (0.1%)
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)
03/16/04      454,635   449,505     5,130     0.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04      141,559    85,171    56,388    24.9%
03/02/04      148,383    84,135    64,248    27.6%
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%
03/16/04      159,054   115,023    44,031    25.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Whoa!  Commercial traders have turned very bearish on the
S&P e-mini's.  Contract volume in both longs and shorts have
soared but they bought almost 90K new shorts pushing bearish
sentiment to new levels not seen in weeks.  Small traders
also increased their positions but remain bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/24/04      320,425   387,255    (66,830)  ( 9.4%)
03/02/04      344,805   395,112    (50,307)  ( 6.8%)
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)
03/16/04      472,809   574,241   (101,432)  ( 9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04     129,894     63,524    66,370    34.3%
03/02/04     119,382     67,453    51,929    27.8%
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%
03/16/04     192,136     96,691    95,445    33.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are continuing this bullish trend and
hit another new high in bullish sentiment.  Is everyone
just buying the dip?  Small traders may have taken notice
as they nearly doubled their number of long contracts but
then the more than doubled their short contracts.  At least
the brokers are making some money on commissions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       47,266     40,452     6,814    7.8%
03/02/04       49,959     41,059     8,900    9.8%
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%
03/16/04       68,285     54,899    13,386   10.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       12,388     7,310     5,078    25.8%
03/02/04       11,605     7,128     4,477    23.9%
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%
03/16/04       27,859    18,333     9,526    20.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Not too much change here for the commercial traders although
they've become significantly less bullish than recent weeks.
Small traders are moving the other direction and becoming
less bearish!


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       27,176    13,918   13,258      32.3%
03/02/04       27,594    14,166   13,428      32.2%
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%
03/16/04       32,317    17,514   14,803      29.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/24/04        6,509    14,919   (8,410)   (39.2%)
03/02/04        6,898    15,874   (8,976)   (39.4%)
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)
03/16/04       10,002    20,970  (10,968)   (35.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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The Option Investor Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-23-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Dropped Calls: RNR
Dropped Puts: None
Call Play Updates: ATH, DGX, LXK, ONXX
New Calls Plays: None
Put Play Updates: ETN, IVGN, QLGC, SLAB
New Put Plays: MXIM, RIMM


****************
PICKS WE DROPPED
****************

When we drop a pick it doesn't mean we are recommending a sell
on that play. Many dropped picks go on to be very profitable.
We drop a pick because something happened to change its
profile. News, price, direction, etc. We drop it because we
don't want anyone else starting a new play at that time.
We have hundreds of new readers with each issue who are
unfamiliar with the previous history for that pick and we
want them to look at any current pick as a valid play.


CALLS:
*****

Renaissancere Ltd - RNR - close: 52.35 chg: -0.85 stop: 52.50

Global concerns about a potential new cycle of terrorism after
the Monday morning elimination of the Hamas leader in Palestine
has investors on the defensive.  Insurance stocks who cover
property and terrorist events are seeing strong selling pressure
and RNR is one of them.  Today's drop is a new short-term
relative low below the previous March low near $52.50.  This
stopped us out at the $52.50 level.  Traders may actually want to
consider bearish positions if RNR breaks down through support at
$52.00 and its simple 50-dma although there is immediate support
at $50.00.

Picked on February 15 at $50.83
Change since picked:     + 1.52
Earnings Date          02/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       238 thousand
Chart =



PUTS:
*****

None


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option* and futures traders. The combination of the proven Man
Financial global presence and the convenience of one group for
all trading needs provide customers with the tools needed for
success.

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********************
PLAY UPDATES - CALLS
********************

Anthem, Inc. - ATH - close: 89.00 change: +0.93 stop: 87.25*new*

The persistent weakness in the broad market is holding ATH back,
but it certainly hasn't been able to drag the stock appreciably
lower.  Yesterday's dip back near the 20-dma (now at $87.94)
motivated the buyers and they bought the dip driving the stock
back over the 10-dma ($88.82) by the close today on increasing
volume.  The stock has been unable to sustain a move above the
$90 resistance level, but the lows continuing to move higher, and
that resistance continuing to be tested, it appears another
breakout attempt could come at any time.  All it will take is
some bullish action in the rest of the market.  Aggressive
traders can consider breakout entries over $90.75, but bear in
mind the possibility for the stock to find near-term resistance
near $92 at the intraday high from March 5th.  We're continuing
to move our stop up under each higher low, so tonight it rises to
$87.25, just under yesterday's intraday low.

Picked on February 26th at   $85.37
Change since picked:          +3.63
Earnings Date               4/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     1.46 mln
Chart =


---

Quest Diagnostics - DGX - close: 82.20 change: +0.61 stop: 79.00

So far DGX has put on a pretty anemic performance, as the stock
has been unable to sustain a move over $83, as it continues in
its consolidation pattern.  The lows are still moving higher
though, climbing along the short-term ascending trendline, which
now lines up almost exactly on top of the 50-dma ($81.35).  To
its credit, the stock hasn't been pushed lower by the persistent
broad market weakness and the prospects for a breakout and run at
the highs near $86 still look favorable.  Wait for the stock to
trade through our $83.50 trigger before playing.  Then entries
can be taken according to individual preferences, either on the
initial breakout or on a subsequent pullback near the rising
trendline.  Maintain stops at $79.

Picked on March 18th at      $82.97
Change since picked:          -0.77
Earnings Date               4/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        612 K
Chart =


---

Lexmark Intl. - LXK - close: 88.64 change: +0.17 stop: 86.50*new*

Considering the strong rally from the $82 level to above $90 just
over a week ago, the past few days' pullback in shares of LXK has
been quite mild.  Yesterday's opening dip to the $87.50 area
didn't even test the 10-dma ($86.93), but the buyers still
stepped up and added to their positions, producing enough of a
rebound for the stock to close near its high of the day.  Today's
candle was less encouraging, with the stock's early rally turned
back, producing a close near the low of the day.  LXK appears to
be consolidating ahead of the next rally attempt and the best
strategy right now is to initiate new positions on successful
bounces from above the $87 breakout level.  Should LXK catch fire
and break out over last week's $91.10 high, that can be used for
new momentum entries.  Note that we're getting more aggressive
with our stop, raising it to $86.50 tonight, as that is solidly
below the 10-dma and just below last Tuesday's intraday low.

Picked on March 14th at      $85.77
Change since picked:          +2.87
Earnings Date               4/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        971 K
Chart =


---

Onyx Pharm. - ONXX - close: 36.33 change: +0.59 stop: 34.00

It would be hard to confuse the price action in ONXX as exciting,
but it is certainly encouraging to see the stock outperforming
both the broad market and the Biotechnology sector (BTK.X), which
lost 1% on Tuesday.  In the face of that weakness, ONXX pushed a
bit higher to post its best close in 2 weeks.  Of course, when
the intraday price range is so narrow, picking a viable entry
point can be a bit challenging.  Either a pullback near the 30-
dma ($35.53) or a breakout over $37 look viable for fresh
entries, although more conservative traders may want to wait for
a breakout over the early March high of $38.40 before playing.
Maintain stops at $34, which is now comfortably below the 50-dma
($34.36).

Picked on March 21st at      $36.07
Change since picked:          +0.26
Earnings Date                   N/A
Average Daily Volume =        580 K
Chart =



**************
NEW CALL PLAYS
**************

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Eaton Corp. - ETN - close: 53.43 change: -0.63 stop: 57.80

With the broad market showing scant signs of strength, the
weakness we first noted in shares of ETN is starting to pick up
steam.  Last week's failed rebound just below $58 was a gift of
an entry point and the confirmation of that fact came yesterday
when the stock gapped down below the 100-dma again and never
looked back.  Instead of bouncing from support near $54 today,
the stock just continued to grind lower, ending at its low of the
day and it seems safe to say that support in the $54-55 area has
been soundly broken.  A rebound back into that area should
provide solid bearish entries, with resistance now likely to be
found at the 10-dma ($55.52), which is falling fast.  The
potential exists for mild support to be found in the $52-53 area,
but our attention is now squarely focused on the $50 area, which
should be solid support, especially now that the 200-dma ($49.78)
is nearing that level.  We're still keeping a fairly wide stop at
$57.80, but a drop under $53 will have us tightening it to $56 or
possibly lower.

Picked on March 11th at       $54.82
Change since picked:           -1.39
Earnings Date                1/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      1.14 mln
Chart =


----

Invitrogen - IVGN - close: 67.00 chg: -0.20 stop: 70.01

Shares of IVGN continue to slip lower after Friday's failed rally
near the $70.00 mark.  Volume has been average and there aren't
any new headlines for the stock.  We're actually a tiny bit
surprised that the stock hasn't fallen faster considering the
strong two-day decline in the BTK biotech sector index.  If the
BTK breaks down through round-number support at 500 (only 4
points away) then we will hopefully see IVGN break through
support at the $65.00 level.  Short-term technicals are bearish
again and its P&F chart has rolled back over into a column of
O's.  Our initial target remains at $63.00.

Picked on March 11 at $ 67.26
Change since picked:   - 0.26
Earnings Date        02/12/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     910 thousand
Chart =


----

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 40.75 change: -0.26 stop: 42.30

We're not triggered yet on QLGC but it could happen soon.  The
semiconductor index (SOX) has closed under technical support at
its 200-dma for the second day in a row.  That's bad news.
Furthermore the intraday chart reveals how the sector really hit
some heavy selling pressure late this afternoon (on Tuesday).  We
could see the SOX break through historical price support in the
450 range soon.  Looking at some of the bigger components in the
group Intel (INTC) is trying to hold support at $26.00.
Meanwhile KLAC, who is really leading the charge lower, tried to
bounce back above the $50.00 level today but couldn't.  Both KLAC
and INTC have a pretty nasty sell-off this afternoon.  Meanwhile
QLGC actually traded back to the $42.00 region this morning
before reversing course.  As we mentioned on Sunday more
aggressive traders could use failed rallies near $42 to initiate
new positions.  We're still waiting for QLGC to trade through our
TRIGGER at $39.99.  Fortunately, QLGC's MACD indicator is
starting to roll over again.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see trigger
Change since picked:   - 0.00
Earnings Date        04/27/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     3.8 million
Chart =


---

Silicon Labs. - SLAB - close: 49.52 change: -0.60 stop:
54.00*new*

It is looking more and more like last week's breakdown in the
Semiconductor sector (SOX.X) below $470 support was significant.
The brief pause at the 200-dma ($463) gave way yesterday, and the
index slid a bit further today.  SLAB continued with its
breakdown yesterday, ending on the 100-dma ($50.03) and then
broke that average today, picking up steam towards the end of the
day and closing at its low.  Throughout this breakdown, volume
has been on the rise and if the $48.50 level fails to provide
support, we can look for a fairly quick drop the rest of the way
to our initial target at the 200-dma ($45.06).  Note that price
is currently resting on the bullish support line on the PnF chart
($49) and we should expect at least a near-term rebound from that
level.  If it fails to occur, momentum entries under $48 make
sense.  On the other hand, if the bounce does materialize, then
we'll be looking for a rollover from resistance in the $52-53
area for new entries.  Note that we've lowered our stop to $54,
which is well above the confluence of the 10-dma ($52.90) and the
50-dma ($52.74).

Picked on March 21st at       $51.35
Change since picked:           -1.83
Earnings Date                1/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      1.40 mln
Chart =



*************
NEW PUT PLAYS
*************

Maxim Int. Prod. - MXIM - close: 44.38 change: -0.65 stop: 47.75

Company Description:
MXIM designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of
linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits, commonly referred to
as analog circuits.  The company also provides a range of high-
frequency design processes and capabilities that can be used in
custom design.  MXIM's objective is to develop and market both
proprietary and industry-standard analog integrated circuits that
meet the increasingly stringent quality standards demanded by
customers.

Why we like it:
Last week's breakdown in the Semiconductor index (SOX.X) under
the $470 level appears to have been a pivotal event, as the
sector has continued to weaken this week and now the 200-dma at
$463 is looking more like resistance than support.  MXIM made a
valiant attempt to hold at support near $46 for almost 2 weeks,
but when it broke down, it broke down hard, continuing all the
way down through the 200-dma ($45.41).  After a feeble attempt at
a bounce yesterday, the stock continued its southward journey
today, hitting an intraday low of $43.70 before the midday
rebound attempt.  The tide has definitely turned in favor of the
bears though, with the early March Sell signal on the PnF chart
turning downright ugly.  The Sell signal is now projecting a
decline all the way to $33, which if achieved would have the
stock trading at levels not seen in over a year.  Particularly
disappointing to the bulls is the fact that the stock dropped
right through the bullish support line without any appreciable
rebound.

Rather than go for the gusto and play for a decline down to that
PnF price target, we're going to set a more modest goal,
targeting next chart support near $39.  A break below the $43.50
level can be used for momentum entries, while more conservative
traders can look to enter on a failed bounce below $46, as there
should now be very strong resistance in the $45.50-46.00 area.
There is some potential support near $41-42, but with the sector
weakness that seems to be dominating right now, we're viewing
that as only a possible speed bump on the way to our goal  Stops
will initially be set at $47.75, just over the top of the last
failed rebound.  The 20-dma ($47.88) will be below that level by
tomorrow, helping to reinforce that resistance.  MXIM has once
again been trading in line with the SOX, so watch the sector
action for clues as to what to expect in terms of price action
from MXIM.

Suggested Options:
Aggressive short-term traders will want to use the April 40 Put
while those with a more conservative approach will want to use
the April 45 put.  Aggressive traders looking for more insulation
against time decay will want to utilize the May 40 strike.  Our
preferred option is the April 45 strike, as it is currently at
the money and should provide ample time for the play to move in
our favor.

BUY PUT APR-45*XIQ-PI OI=2613 at $2.35 SL=1.25
BUY PUT APR-40 XIQ-PH OI=1364 at $0.70 SL=0.35
BUY PUT MAY-40 XIQ-QH OI= 704 at $1.50 SL=0.75

Annotated Chart of MXIM:



Picked on March 23rd at       $44.40
Change since picked:           +0.00
Earnings Date                4/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      5.23 mln
Chart =


---

Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 86.64 chg: -3.76 stop: 90.01

Company Research:
Research In Motion is a leading designer, manufacturer and
marketer of innovative wireless solutions for the worldwide
mobile communications market. Through the development of
integrated hardware, software and services that support multiple
wireless network standards, RIM provides platforms and solutions
for seamless access to time-sensitive information including
email, phone, SMS messaging, Internet and intranet-based
applications. RIM technology also enables a broad array of third
party developers and manufacturers to enhance their products and
services with wireless connectivity to data. RIM's portfolio of
award-winning products, services and embedded technologies are
used by thousands of organizations around the world and include
the BlackBerry. wireless platform, the RIM Wireless Handheld(TM)
product line, software development tools, radio-modems and
software/hardware licensing agreements. Founded in 1984 and based
in Waterloo, Ontario, RIM operates offices in North America,
Europe and Asia Pacific.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Allow us to start right off the bat with a warning.  RIMM is a
dangerous stock to play for the bulls and the bears.  Shares have
shot up about 500% in the last six months and while bears are
drooling to short it there is a large number of traders who are
probably waiting for a pull back so they can jump on the
bandwagon.  Brokers are pretty bullish on the group too and if it
begins to drop too fast they may start to defend it.

Looking back it's probably a good idea to know what launched RIMM
into orbit to begin with.  In late December RIMM exploded after
beating earnings estimates by 14 cents.  Furthermore they raised
their earnings guidance to more than double the consensus
estimates for the first quarter.  That is truly great news but
the stock was trading at $42 before its December earnings and it
hit $101.50 in early March.  Investors have bought each dip but
the rate of ascension has slowed.  first they bought the dip to
the 10-dma.  Then it was the dip to the 21-dma, then the 30-dma,
then the 40-dma.  Each time it got harder and harder to support
RIMM's stock price.  Of course RIMM is doing what it can with
plenty of good news.  They recently announced a snazzy new
BlackBerry with a color screen that supports 65,000 colors.  More
importantly they've announced service for consumers in Asia,
Australia and Hong Kong.  These are new markets and are crucial
for RIMM's longer-term growth but right now the stock price is
looking pretty tired.

Yesterday's weakness was a pivotal day.  RIMM traded below its
simple 50-dma on stronger than average volume and failed to close
above it.  Today saw RIMM gap higher to $91.85 and a run to 92.55
but it didn't last. Before lunch time the stock had dropped
toward the $85 level.  There was a rally attempt but it failed
under the $89 mark.  The failed rally this afternoon may have
been the most damaging clue.  Adding to the volatility was news
out last night that rival PalmOne had significantly beat
earnings.  Analysts had been looking for a loss of 30 cents a
share and PalmOne turned in a loss of 20 cents a share on very
strong revenues.  Are investors suddenly concerned that PLMO
might be stealing market share from RIMM?

Picking the targets and stops for RIMM was also a challenge.
We'd like to suggest a stop above today's high but that's rather
wide.  So we'll start the play with a stop above round-number
resistance at $90.00.  The target was harder to choose.  RIMM has
decent support at $83.00 on both its daily chart and its P&F
chart.  Plus, $83 is its current P&F target.  However, RIMM has
been pretty volatile late and we believe it's likely to overshoot
any such target.  Instead we're going to aim for a move to the
$80.00 mark.  We'd like to say that more conservative investors
may want to watch the NASDAQ first and see if it breaks its 200-
dma at 1887 before considering shorts on RIMM but then we don't
feel that conservative traders should be trading RIMM to begin
with.  Another caveat are the option prices.  With the VIX/VXO
volatility indices spiking higher and the big moves in RIMM the
option premiums have inflated.  Yet another note of caution -
RIMM is due to announce earnings after the bell on Wednesday
April 7th.  That only gives us a little more than two weeks to
reach our target although if RIMM decides to move lower it will
probably do so in a hurry.

Suggested Options:
Remember we're only suggesting that aggressive traders with risk
capital consider speculating on this play.  Since we're not going
to hold over the April 7th earnings announcement our preference
is for the April 90's or April 85's.

Please note that we are not listing any suggested stop losses on
the options themselves since these are likely to be very
volatile.  We suggest using a stop on the stock price to trigger
your option exits.

BUY PUT APR 90 RUP-PR OI= 3712 currently at $7.30
BUY PUT APR 85 RUP-PQ OI= 5079 currently at $4.80

Annotated Chart:



Picked on March 23 at $ 86.64
Change since picked:   - 0.00
Earnings Date        04/07/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     6.1 million
Chart =



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The Option Investor Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-23-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        3 of 3
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Three:

Watch List: Insurance, Metals, Homes, Chips
Traders Corner: Chart Patterns at the Recent Top


**********
WATCH LIST
**********

Insurance, Metals, Homes, Chips

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________


American Intl Group - AIG - close: 70.00 change: -0.69

WHAT TO WATCH: Major insurance stocks have been weak recently do
to the renewed terrorism fears.  Most of the major insurers who
have property and terrorist portfolios would be obligated to pay
out almost $2 billion before the U.S. government stepped in to
help.  That has sent AIG back towards support at $70.00.  There
is more support near $67.50 but we suspect that a breakdown at
$70 could lead to a test of the $65.00 region.

Chart=


---

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 78.58 change: -2.52

WHAT TO WATCH: We've continued to monitor PD on the watch list
for days as it tried to build support at $80 and its 50-dma last
week.  The stock made it to the $85 level before widespread
market weakness brought it back to support again.  Unfortunately
the stock is seeing even more weakness today with a very high-
volume technical breakdown below support at $80 and its 50-dma.
Its P&F chart looks bearish pointing to a $65 price target.  That
seems a little extreme.  We think aggressive bears might be able
to target a move toward the $72-74 region.  However, we want to
emphasize aggressive traders because copper remains strong and
bounced again from its own lows today.

Chart=


---

KB Home - KBH - close: 77.85 change: +1.13

WHAT TO WATCH: The homebuilders have been weathering the recent
weakness very well but they still look vulnerable to more profit
taking.  One stock in the group that appears stronger than its
peers is KBH.  The stock is bouncing from the $76 level and its
simple 21-dma.  More conservative traders might want to keep KBH
on their personal watch list for a breakout over resistance at
$80.00.

Chart=


---

Micron Technology - MU - close: 15.82 change: +0.40

WHAT TO WATCH: Considering the weakness in the semiconductor
index (SOX) shares of MU are holding up pretty well.  The stock
appears to be consolidating in a wide bull flag pattern.  A
breakout over $16.50 looks like a potential trigger point for a
run toward the $18.00-19.00 and maybe the $20.00 level.   The
stock has been boosted lately by positive comments from Merrill
Lynch and SoundView.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

DE $66.02 +1.06 - We're still watching DE for a bullish breakout
over resistance at $68.00.

SUN $60.99 +0.92 - SUN is rebounding from support at its 40 & 30-
dma's as well as the $60.00 level.  The up trend is still intact
for now.

LMT $44.90 +0.39 - After two months of selling LMT is trying to
find a bottom near the $43-44 level.  Today's gain put it back
above its 10-dma.

IBM $91.32 +0.30 - IBM is still stuck in its short-term down
trend with resistance at its 10-dma.  Currently shares should
have support at $90.00 bolstered by its 200-dma directly
underneath.  Will support hold?


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TRADERS CORNER
**************

Chart Patterns at the Recent Top
By Leigh Stevens
lstevens@OptionInvestor.com

A Subscriber question from yesterday got me thinking about what
was bearish in recent Index chart patterns and I will highlight
some of the chart patterns involved: a rounding top, a Head &
Shoulder's top and a bear flag pattern that formed after the
initial sharp decline.

All the patterns mentioned can form either on the way up or the
way down – at a bottom or on the way up, these inverse patterns
are a rounding bottom, an inverse Head & Shoulder's and a bull
flag in an uptrend.

Th OIN Subscriber question mentioned also got me thinking that if
one has the kind of charting application I have, involving
downloading end-of-day data and then that data resides on your PC
- no one but you is there to FIX it if there was an interruption
in the (data) feed from the exchange if passed on from your
Provider.  Let the buyer beware in this case and your charts are
no better than the data that they are made up from.  Am I
mortified! – and more watchful of this for the future.

OIN SUBSCRIBER QUESTION:
Am I not seeing your chart right? (referring to my Index Trader
Wrap of 3/21/04). My chart shows a close of 543.68 on the OEX.
Yours appears to show a close in the area of around 548-549? Does
this change your opinion of possible market scenarios?

RESPONSE:
No mistake in what you were seeing, it was in what I was NOT
seeing. My data was incomplete, as what my data provider got from
the exchange got interrupted before the close on both the OEX &
SPX and this was passed on to me.  I corrected this manually after
seeing your note, when I noticed the incompleteness.   However,
the mismatch was not so much that it changed my view of the
patterns we were seeing.

SPX CHART IN MY ORIGINAL (03-21-04) INDEX TRADER WRAP –



THE CHART CORRECTED –



Based on the difference in these two charts, there was no basic
change in the pattern involved.  The key thing was that the sharp
decline on Mon 3/22/04 (next chart, below) penetrated the lower
end of the flag and "activated" the lower potential objectives
implied by the pattern, which is to as low as 1060-1065 as a final
objective, with an initial objective to around 1080 –




FLAG PATTERNS –
Flag patterns are fairly common continuation patterns and are
considered bullish in an uptrend and bearish in a declining trend.
I say "common", but they are most common in individual stocks,
somewhat less so in the Indexes.

In technical analysis, continuation patterns are "consolidations"
to the prior price swing. After an initial strong move up or down,
there is typically a countertrend or sideways price movement
before the trend renews itself and continues in the same direction
as before the consolidation.

Flag patterns are relatively short-term sideways consolidations
of, and after, a prior sharp move in prices – in the above case it
was a sharp decline.

A flag pattern’s outline is formed by a series of relatively
narrow price range sessions after this sharp and relatively short
price spurt – the more or less "straight up" or "straight down"
nature of this spurt resembles a "flagpole" as is outlined in the
chart of SPX above with the vertical dashed magenta line.

The back and forth movement with a slight upward slope to it, if
you draw parallel lines through the bottoms and tops, occurs near
the bottom of the prior steep decline (the "flagpole").

The narrow ranges that comprise the price swings of the "flag",
have tops and bottoms that allow drawing trendlines across the
highs and lows – the two resulting trendlines will usually if not
always slope in the opposite direction from the trend.

MEASURING A FLAG OBJECTIVE -
The measurement implication for the height of a further move,
after the breakout from the flag consolidation, is that a minimum
upside or downside objective is equal to the height of the
"flagpole" subtracted from the downside breakout of a bear flag.
This measuring rule of thumb gave an objective to around 1060-1065
in the S&P 500. These price target objectives of course are not
always met – but there is at least usually good downside follow
through on the second break.

The 1060-1065 objective also makes some sense if we figure that
the market may decline back to the area of the 200-day moving
average per the above chart. Typically, a move back to the 200-day
average is where institutional money managers have renewed
interest in buying a stock (or the market) – this average is a
technical benchmark that they follow and often act on.

TOP PATTERNS: A ROUNDING TOP -
I had pointed out that the Dow 30 had this pattern and this was
the only Index that really showed it, as the S&P 100 (OEX) and 500
(SPX) formed possible rectangle tops only – that is, a straight
line could be drawn through the various relative highs that formed
several times in the same price area.

I took special notice of the possible rounding top in the Dow, as
that is a more potent indication for a top.  The rectangle can
merely be a consolidation pattern suggesting the trend will
continue higher after a sideways trend.  The rounding formation is
a definite indication that a trend REVERSAL is setting up.

The "tipping" point, suggesting a trend reversal, not just a
pullback, is when prices reach, then fall further, about half way
down the side of the implied circle.  In this case from the Dow
Industrials, after penetrating below some prior lows shown by the
dashed red level line -




Summing up –
The rounding top (or rounding bottom) is not seen all that much
but when it is, I find that the pattern has a high predictive
value in suggesting that prices are going to have a sharp further
move – down, in this case.  You can go back to the major top of
late-1999/2000 to see a pretty graphic example of this pattern and
its aftermath -




Now to the final top pattern and probably the best known, that of
a Head & Shoulders (H&S).  There was a H&S Top that was also seen
on the daily Dow chart.  There is not great "definition" on the
right shoulder but it is still in the right position and is the
3rd top in the pattern that is the final bit of it –




THE HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN –
The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a price pattern that is also a
"reversal" type chart formation, signaling at least a temporary
trend reversal. They are valuable as they have a pretty high
reliability for signaling a top (or bottom) ahead of when that
actually happens, giving some time to prepare for it with a
trading plan, especially important with Index options.

The H&S pattern can develop over days or weeks in individual
stocks or stock indexes or in any other timeframe like hourly,
etc.

The Head and Shoulders TOP formation is composed of 3 tops prior
to a downside trend reversal -- the middle peak (the Head) stands
above the first and last tops (the Left and Right "Shoulders"),
both of which form in approximately the same price area.

The Head and Shoulders bottom is also called an INVERSE Head and
shoulders and is a mirror image of the head and shoulders top. It
is similar to a triple bottom in that there are 3 lows, but with
the middle low being lower than the left and right lows.

Head and shoulders patterns, as is true of other top and bottom
patterns like rounding or double tops, are more likely to occur
after a trend has been underway for some time.

MEASURING IMPLICATIONS –
As shown above on the recent Dow chart above but with the method
better defined as to how to arrive at this objective can be seen
in a chart example from my (Essential Technical Analysis) book –





That's all on recent bearish Index patterns. Spotting one of the
top patterns, or seeing the bearish implication of the flag
formation, could have led to some right (i.e., profitable) trading
decisions.

Good Trading Success!


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Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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