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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 04/21/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 04-21-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Greenspan Calms, Markets Climb
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Something's cook'n


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     04-21-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10317.27 +  2.77 10332.88 10250.48 2.11 bln   1465/1385
NASDAQ   1995.63 + 17.00  1995.91  1973.25 2.04 bln   1848/1214
S&P 100   549.20 +  2.10   550.26   545.38   Totals   3313/2599
S&P 500  1124.09 +  5.94  1125.72  1116.03
RUS 2000  583.22 +  7.41   583.22   573.58
DJ TRANS 2954.42 + 43.15  2957.49  2895.92
VIX        15.60 -  1.07    16.94    15.55
VXO        15.74 -  0.77    17.59    15.58
VXN        22.82 -  0.25    23.35    22.43
Total Volume 4,627M
Total UpVol  3,035M
Total DnVol  1,540M
52wk Highs     158
52wk Lows      217
TRIN          1.75
PUT/CALL      0.68

*******************************************************************

Greenspan Calms, Markets Climb
by James Brown

Stocks opened lower following yesterday afternoon's steep decline
and proceeded to trade in choppy action into the lunch hour.  Fed
Chairman Alan Greenspan managed to soothe the market's inflation
and interest rate fears after his comments sparked yesterday's
weakness.  Alan's comments were bolstered by a strong Beige Book
report and the markets ended up generally higher by the close
spurred on by positive earnings results.  Gold stocks were the
biggest losers and continued to take a beating as gold futures
dropped almost $7 on the strong dollar.  Elsewhere buying was
strong in airlines, defense, healthcare, homebuilders,
networking, semiconductors and Internet stocks.

Traders overreacted to Greenspan's comments yesterday and
mistranslated his some of his answers as a sign that the Fed
would have to raise rates much sooner than expected.  The concern
here is that when the Fed begins to tighten rates it could be the
beginning in a series of rate hikes and that might choke off the
burgeoning economic rebound in the U.S. thus negative affecting
corporate profits which would impact stock prices.  Alan helped
put some of those fears to rest today when he said that if the
Fed had to tighten there is no rule that says it has to be a
string of rate hikes and that the Fed could stop at just one
should it effective.  Furthermore Greenspan was pretty bullish on
the economy and despite the current environment of low rates he
did not see any "broad-based inflation pressures...building."

As a matter of fact his comments here, "recent data indicate that
growth of activity has remained robust thus far this year.
Household spending has continued to move up, and residential home
sales and construction remain at elevated levels. In addition,
the improvement in business activity has become more widespread.
In the industrial sector, nearly two-thirds of the industries
that make up the index of industrial production have experienced
an increase in output over the past three months. More broadly,
indicators of business investment point to increases in spending
for many types of capital equipment. And importantly, the latest
employment figures suggest that businesses are becoming more
willing to add to their workforces, with the result that the
labor market now appears to be gradually improving after a
protracted period of weakness." were echoed in the Fed's Beige
Book report out this afternoon.  According to the report growth
was "widespread" as "economic activity increased across the
nation".  The Beige Book also said that manufacturing improved
across the country and labor markets were starting to improve as
well.

You can read Alan's comments here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Testimony/2004/20040421/default.htm

You can read the Fed Beige Book report here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2004/20040421/default.htm

The Dow Industrials ended the session up less than three points
at 10,317 but significantly off its lows near 10,250.  The S&P
500 index also posted a single-digit gain but it too was climbing
into the closing bell.  The NASDAQ composite jumped 17 points to
1995 and while still under the 2000 level it turned in the
biggest improvement as numerous tech stocks turned in positive
earnings reports.  The optimist in me is still hoping that the
consolidation in the Industrials will turn out to be a bull flag
pattern (see chart) but the freshly minted sell signal in the
Dow's MACD makes initiating new bullish positions a big step of
faith.  Meanwhile the NASDAQ is also in a new declining channel
and if it rolls over again under 2020-2025 then a test of the
200-dma might not be far away.  Overall market internals trended
up positively toward the close.  Advancing stocks nudged past
decliners 14.6 to 13.8 on the NYSE while on the NASDAQ winners
outpaced losers 3 to 2.  Up volume was approximately double the
down volume numbers across both exchanges while total volume was
decent at more than 4 billion between the two.

Chart of the Dow Industrials:




Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:



The earnings parade was marching past at full speed today and we
had five Dow-components announcing with all of them surpassing
analysts' expectations.  First on our list is Honeywell (HON), a
conglomerate, who turned in 34 cents per share.  Analysts had
been looking for 30 cents a share.  Revenues soared past
estimates to hit $6.18 billion for the quarter.  Following HON is
J.P.Morgan (JPM).  JPM is the No 3 bank in the U.S. and currently
in the process of merging with Bank One (ONE).  Consensus
estimates for JPM were 87 cents a share and JPM reported net
income at 92 cents per share.  Revenues also beat estimates at
$8.98 billion.  Coca-Cola Co (KO) is next on the list of Dow
components and the beverage maker was expected to turn in profits
at 44 cents a share.  The biggest soft-drink maker in the world
said net profits hit 46 cents a share on revenues of $5.08
billion, also above estimates.  SBC Communications (SBC) is the
fourth component and the telecom giant released earnings of 37
cents a share, which beat consensus estimates by 5 cents.  Last
but not least is another conglomerate United Technologies (UTX).
Analysts were expecting UTX to report profits of $1.12 per share
and revenues at $7.74 billion.  The company turned in $1.14 per
share on revenues of $8.65 billion.  Out of the entire group only
SBC managed to trade higher on its earnings news with a 41-cent
gain to $24.77.

There were dozens and dozens of corporate earnings announcements
today and the general trend has been positive.  Unfortunately,
just beating estimates by a couple of cents (or even a nickel
like the few mentioned above) is not enough to inspire more
buying interest.  Analysts will tell you good news of that
magnitude is already baked in so investors are using the reports
as an excuse to take profits.  However, there are a few
noteworthy exceptions.

You've probably already heard of Motorola's (MOT) exceptional
earnings report last night.  The company turned in profits of 19
cents a share compared to estimates of just 7 cents and the stock
exploded at the open today.  Shares jumped almost 19% to close at
three-year highs of $19.30 and lifted both the chip sector and
the wireless sector.  Before the opening bell Ford Motor Co (F)
reported earnings (ex-items) of 96 cents per share.  This was
more than double last year's 45-cent number and this quarter's
estimates of 44 cents per share.  Revenues soared to $44.7
billion.  The stock jumped more than 10% to close above several
resistance levels at $14.94.  Meanwhile, boosting the XAL airline
index to a 2.46% gain was AMR Corp (AMR), the largest airliner in
the U.S.  Shares of AMR jumped more than 9% and closed above
resistance at its 200-dma after reporting an earnings loss of
just $1.03 a share, which is only a penny better than
expectations but a vast improvement over last year's $6.68 loss
per share.

After the closing bell the earnings downpour continued.  Internet
auction behemoth EBAY said its quarterly profits almost doubled
while the value of goods sold soared to $8 billion.  Last year
EBAY earned 16 cents in the first quarter and analysts had raised
their expectations to 25 cents.  Depending on which number you
use EBAY earned 30-to-31 cents or $200.1 million.  Driving the
numbers was a 59% jump in sales and a 87% rise in international
revenues.  EBAY also raised its full year earnings and revenue
guidance.  Investors were also eager to hear from Qualcomm
(QCOM).  The CDMA-wireless giant reported earnings of 53 cents
per share, not counting profits from its QSI investment arm,
compared to 38 cents a year ago and 48 cent estimates.  QCOM also
raised its earnings estimates for the current quarter to 44-46
cents versus analysts' estimates of 39 cents.  The good news
wasn't limited to Internets or technology either.  Caffeine
merchant Starbucks (SBUX) reported very strong quarterly earnings
after the closing bell.  Analysts had been looking for 17 cents
per share compared to 13 cents a year ago.  SBUX said net income
jumped to 19 cents or $79 million, a 53% jump.  Furthermore SBUX
said that its same-store sales soared 12%, the strongest rise in
more than ten years.  Management followed the good news by
raising their full year estimates to 90-91 cents compared to Wall
Street's estimate of 88 cents.

If that's not enough earnings news for you the spectacle
continues tomorrow.  A few of the larger companies announcing
before the opening bell are American Intl Group (AIG), AT&T (T),
BellSouth (BLS), Beazer Homes (BZH), Caterpillar (CAT), Guidant
(GDT), Hershey Foods (HSY), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Nextel (NXTL),
Adolph Coors (RKY), Reebok (RBK), Schering-Plough (SGP), Textron
(TXT), and UPS (UPS).  Remember, that's just a select few before
trading starts!  Wall Street will also be eagerly looking for the
March Producer Price Index (PPI) for any signs of inflation.
Economists expect the delayed report to show a rise of 0.3%
compared to a 0.1% in February.  We'll also see the weekly
jobless claims that are expected to drop to 340,000.  Last but
certainly not least will be THE earnings report of the day.
That's right; Microsoft (MSFT) is due to report after the closing
bell.  Estimates for the software titan are at 29 cents per
share.

Trade carefully.  The bullish side of my brain would like to
think that investors will respond positively to the string of
great earnings reports after the bell on Wednesday.
Unfortunately the major averages have some significant resistance
to break through before we can make any serious progress and odds
are we could be stuck in a range bound market between now and the
May 4th FOMC meeting.  It's not that we're expecting any change
in rates at the meeting but it's something investors can focus on
as an excuse to be patient.


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Something's cook'n

Sniff... Sniff.... Do you smell something?

Something's cook'n, at least I think it is, but all be darned if
my lifting of cooking lids can uncover just what it is.

The major indices traded in a very tight range today, and those
traders that check in at the Market Monitor during the day (or
read the archives each night) will see that I was trying to keep
track of the numerous buy and sell program premium alerts
generated during today's session.

S&P Premium Alerts - For today 04/21/04



In each morning's 09:00 AM EDT update, I'll post HL Camp &
Company's buy/sell program premium levels for the S&P.  Intra-day
traders will use these alert (you can set them up in some trading
software services like QCharts) so that each time a program
trading premium level is executed, you'll be alert.  Sometimes
I'll simply make notes, like I'm doing tonight, that there was an
unusually high number of programs being set in motion today, but
there was little movement.  Sometimes this can be the equivalent
of trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole.  Hit the peg
hard enough with the hammer, and the peg either shatters, or the
square peg conforms itself to eventually fitting in the hole.

Something's cook'n to generate such buy/sell program activity,
with so little movement, but some pretty good volume rates at
both the NYSE and NASDAQ, where volume was up from yesterday's
trade.  The NYSE turned 1.73 billion shares, its heaviest volume
since March 11 (1.89 billion), while NASDAQ flipped 2.05 billion,
its heaviest volume since 2.15 billion on April 2, and the
nonfarm payroll numbers.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 04/21/04



Certainly there were some adjustments being made based on
yesterday afternoon's testimony from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan,
and today's tight range of trade gives me the feel that there's
some steam building in the pressure cooker.

Mr. Greenspan was rather upbeat in today's testimony before
Congress, and similar to me perhaps, Mr. Greenspan has been
turning over many of his economic indicator's lids, looking for
inflation and doesn't seem to think inflationary pressure are a
big item right now.

While Greenspan keeps the door of possibility open for a threat
of inflation, it was Spot Gold and the AMEX Gold Bugs Index
($HUI.X) 194.55 -1.42% that found selling, where the Gold Bugs
Index was the only equity-based index to fall more than 1% in
today's trade.

What happened to "sell the news" with Motorola (NYSE:MOT) $19.30
+18.98% today?  After gapping to a new 52-week high (above its
March 01, 2004 high of $18.90) today was the opportunity for all
bulls that had survived the recent pullback to $16.00 an
opportunity to get the heck out while the getting was good.

After all.... the Fed will be raising rates soon!

Hmmmm..... Motorola's (MOT) upbeat earnings mentioned strong
handset trends, where market share gains are being found.  Maybe
Nokia's (NYSE:NOK) $15.01 +0.26% recent bad news wasn't
necessarily a sign of negative consumer behavior.  Analysts
praised Motorola's move "flip phones," and noted that Nokia is
behind in this segment.

OK, I ended up sacrificing a penny loss (plus commissions) on a
bearish day trade short in the stock, but all be darned if I was
going to try and get between the alternating buy/sell programs in
and index trade today.

After the opening bell, MOT and the indices really traded in a
tight range, and what some trader's call a "paint drying
session," where the day's trade is about as exciting as watching
paint dry.

Not every day's trade is volatile, and today's action seemed to
be that of thought and fine-tuning.

Pivot Matrix -



Today's high for the Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,317.27 +0.02% came
just shy of its WEEKLY Pivot, while the broader S&P 500 Index
(SPX.X) 1,125.09 +0.53% "sipped the soup" with a test of its
MONTHLY Pivot resistance, but the lid on the kettle was quickly
replaced as a sell program premium alert at 02:30 PM EDT (see it
in the Premium Chart at 14:30?).

The NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,451.01 +0.98% session LOW didn't
quite see a test of its MONTHLY Pivot support, and remains the
ONLY index in our MONTHLY Pivots to not yet see a test of this
continued support level.

Do you kind of get the same feeling I do that something's cook'n,
but it just isn't ready to be served up at this point?

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) - Daily Intervals



The SOX.X was a sector I looked for some type of hint for a
market eruption to the upside, with MOT being the upside
catalyst.  However, at 10:00 AM EDT, the SOX.X stuck its head
above 479.37, where the WEEKLY 61.8% retracement would have been
a level of potential resistance, but sellers drove the SOX right
back down to the MONTHLY 61.8% retracement of 471.13.  While
these two rather obscure levels are obviously levels that a
computer will have calculated as buy/sell points, its a bit
suspicious how these two levels have played a role in the QQQ's
trade in the past, and continue to do so today.

Look at the news and after-hours trade of semiconductor equipment
maker KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC), which got smacked back lower in
extended hours.  While earnings beat estimates by 4 cents per
share (reported $0.33 vs. estimate $0.29) upcoming Q4 revenue
guidance was $440-$450 million, which was below the $457.8
million consensus.  Order guidance was very wide, which can hint
of uncertainty, where KLAC gave a range of up 10% to down 15%.

Maybe that's why the SOX was somewhat tentative at 479.37 today,
despite robust earnings from MOT.

If you did NOTHING in the SOX.X today (buy/sell new position, or
existing position) you may have done OK come tomorrow.

NASDAQ-100 Tracking Stock (AMEX:QQQ) - Daily Intervals



While the QQQ traded between $36.04 and $35.68 for the better
part of the entire session, we looked at an intra-day chart of
the Qs where other than a couple of dips lower to the MONTHLY
pivot of $35.68, the Qs really wanted to hug the upper end of
today's range and WEEKLY 61.8%, just like the SOX found
resistance at its WEEKLY 61.8%.

The darned QQQ is almost smack dab in the middle of the recent
rebound from $34.00 to $37.50.  Using Stochastics as a tiebreaker
and with MACD just having crossed below its Signal, I'd have to
take on a somewhat bearish tone toward the QQQ below $36.43,
where only on a price move above that level would MACD turn up
from above its zero level, and threaten to cross back above
Signal.  It would probably take a QQQ break below $35.43 and
WEEKLY 80.9% to have MACD falling below zero, which is a more
bearish indication from this oscillator.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart - 10-minute intervals



I thought we'd take a look at a 10-minute interval chart, and
perhaps think about my suspicions as it relates to "something is
cook'n."  Look just below the WEEKLY Pivot of 1,134.78 where I
point to "Yesterday's Greenspan sell program."  Now that's a sell
program!  Now think about all of today's buy/sell program premium
alerts.

Note that not all SELL program alerts mean "weakness" as the SPX
actually held support at the 1,117.34 level.  Why the heck this
level is more important than a pivot analysis derived WEEKLY S1 I
can't really explain, but one reason I do like to use retracement
with the pivot.

Look at our old upward trend (which is shown on the daily
interval bar charts we look at) and how it may also be serving up
some near-term bullish resistance with the MONTHLY Pivot.  If its
true that support broken can serve resistance, then 1,126 is the
level of resistance.  A break much below today's lows has WEEKLY
S2 of 1,106.56 in play.

Dow Industrials (INDU) Chart - 10-minute intervals



For the INDU, we see similar trade as to the SPX, but note how
its is the WEEKLY S1 for the INDU that has more technical
significance right now.  Remember that the WEEKLY S1 is usually
very close to LAST WEEK's lows, and you can see to the left how
that "support...support" when broken yesterday on the Greenspan
commentary, served "resistance... resistance" today.

Be alert!  All those sell program premium alerts could turn into
buy program premium alerts on a move back above the MONTHLY
Pivot.

Conversely, there's some air under the SPX to its WEEKLY S2
should today's sell programs gain some traction.

Keep a close eye on those banks.  They've been weak, and so far,
they haven't been bouncing.

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 04-21-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: PD
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Something for Bulls & Bears


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STOP-LOSS UPDATES
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PD - put play -
 lower stop from $74.61 to $71.01
 PD has put in a decent intraday reversal and
 we are suggesting that traders take profits now!


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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Brokerage Group, addressing the demand for personalized,
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**********
Watch List
**********

Something for Bulls & Bears

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________


Unilever - UN - close: 70.58 change: +1.65

WHAT TO WATCH: We've mentioned UN before.  The stock recently put
in a higher low above its rising 100-dma about a week ago.  The
consolidation under the $70.00 mark appears over now that shares
have broken out above this level (and its simple 50-dma).  Bulls
can probably target a move back toward its February highs near
$75.00 but watch out for earnings on April 28th.  Don't forget
that this is essentially an ADR and will gap open (up or down)
every morning as it adjusts to trading levels in Europe.

Chart=


---

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 69.57 change: -0.12

WHAT TO WATCH: FRX underperformed its peers in the DRG drug index
and marked its second close in two days under support at the
$70.00 mark.  It is trying to hold support at its simple 100-dma
but the trend looks down while volume has been rising on the
declines.  Bearish might want to watch FRX for a move under
$68.60 as a potential entry point.  There is likely to be some
support at $65.00 but one could probably target the bottom of the
gap near $63.00.  A move under $68.00 would produce a new triple-
bottom breakdown sell signal on its P&F chart.

Chart=


---

Henry Schein Inc - HSIC - close: 77.87 change: +1.47

WHAT TO WATCH: HSIC has held up reasonably well these past few
weeks and traders quickly bought the dip from yesterday to push
HISC to a new closing high on Wednesday.  Boosting the stock's
performance was a positive analyst comment this morning with a
reiterated "buy" rating.  We will note that HSIC has already hit
its P&F price target at $69 but given its recent strength it
wouldn't surprise us to see it trade higher (maybe $85).
Investors can wait until after earnings on April 27th before
evaluating new positions.

Chart=


---

Netease.com - NTES - close: 49.36 change: -0.10

WHAT TO WATCH: Chinese Internet stock NTES has pulled back in the
last few days to its rising trendline of support (higher lows).
Coincidentally it also looks like the neckline to a head-and-
shoulders pattern.  The stock is a little volatile so bears might
want to wait for a move under its 100-dma at $46.65 before
evaluating new positions.  Look out for earnings on April 27th.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------


VMC $48.05 +0.34 - VMC has been consolidating in a tight $2.00
range for the last three months.  A move over $48.50 might be
worth catching but the stock has resistance at $50.00 too.
Earnings are expected on April 28th.

MATK $67.68 +2.56 - Something has sparked a rally in MATK and
shares are ramping higher on strong volume.  Next resistance is
the $70 level.

TIF $40.84 +0.33 - This still looks like a bullish candidate if
it can breakout over $41.50.

CELG $54.30 +1.04 - CELG has been very strong the last six weeks
and traders bought the dip to $52.00 this morning.  It will be
interesting to see how it performs after the company announces
earnings tomorrow morning before the opening bell.


*******************
FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you may go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you may simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


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