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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 05/05/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 05-05-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: The Word-of-the-Day
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: See Note
Traders Corner: Playing with SPX Projections (and a look at the
     gold stocks)


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     05-05-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10310.95 -  6.25 10348.35 10291.08 1.82 bln   1416/1393
NASDAQ   1957.26 +  6.78  1967.33  1948.51 1.56 bln   1649/1401
S&P 100   547.19 +  0.04   549.28   546.11   Totals   3065/2794
S&P 500  1121.53 +  1.98  1125.07  1117.86
RUS 2000  570.06 +  0.42   573.28   568.92
DJ TRANS 2923.01 +  7.38  2933.20  2897.65
VIX        15.77 -  0.78    16.55    15.64
VXO        16.23 -  0.13    17.16    16.06
VXN        24.34 -  0.80    25.41    24.17
Total Volume 3,746M
Total UpVol  2,083M
Total DnVol  1,582M
52wk Highs     132
52wk Lows      214
TRIN          0.83
PUT/CALL      0.89
*******************************************************************

The Word-of-the-Day
Linda Piazza

Caution and defensive posturing appeared to direct trading
behavior Wednesday. Some recently beaten-down sectors such as the
SOX gained, and one recently gaining sector, the oil services
sector, fell.  That decline occurred after the Banc of America
downgraded the sector.  The SOX added 0.88 percent, and the OSX,
the Philadelphia Oil Service Index, declined 1.77 percent.  While
the Nasdaq, the SPX, and Russell 2000 managed positive closes,
the gains proved modest at 0.35percent, 0.18 percent and 0.07
percent, respectively, while the Dow lost an equally cautious
0.06 percent.  On the NYSE, advancers and decliners matched
almost exactly, with only 5 more issues advancing than declining,
while the Nasdaq displayed slightly better breadth, with the
advancing/declining ratio at 17/14.  Volume proved tepid at 1.4
billion for the NYSE-traded issues and 1.6 billion for the
Nasdaq-traded ones.

Numerous factors produced the caution.  One analyst noted the
positioning of many stocks or indices within consolidation
patterns.  Another noted that 59 percent of stocks trade above
their 200-dma's, a neutral rating.  Besides these technical
considerations, caution continued ahead of Thursday's decisions
by the Bank of England and the ECB, any proclamations that might
come out of China later in the week, and Friday's U.S. jobs
numbers.

Also, many Asian bourses remained closed Wednesday, so traders
had to gauge global sentiment without the help of the Chinese and
Japanese markets in overnight trading.  China remained silent
this week after last week's measures meant to cool its
overheating economy.  Some market watchers had postulated that
last week's order (or suggestion, according to the Chinese
government) to banks to cease lending activities until May 1
signaled their intention to raise rates over the May holidays
this week.  That prompted a sell-off in global bourses last week,
but so far, news sources have not carried any information about
rate hikes.

Miners, plunging after China's measures appeared especially
intended to dampen the commodities industries, began rebounding
this week.  In overnight trading, Australian miner Rio Tinto
Group, billed as the third largest miner in the world, also eased
concerns by commenting that China's demand for iron ore remained
strong, with that comment reassuring some markets.  BHP Billiton,
billed as the largest mining company in the world, closed the day
2 percent higher.  Still, trading in the mining stocks remained
cautious ahead of this week's rate decision by the Bank of
England and the ECB.  The daily chart of the XAU illustrates the
effect on the gold and silver miners.

Annotated Chart of XAU:



European markets began the day trading cautiously, with banks
headed down in the U.K. and up in the eurozone.  After the
release of the eurozone services industry index number, showing a
modest rise to 54.5 in April from March's 54.4, European stocks
began bouncing off their flat-line levels and climbing guardedly
higher.  Increased export demand balanced languishing consumer
demand on that eurozone number.

About the time that European bourses began those tepid gains, our
futures began gaining, too, but the pre-market action of the
futures could best be described as cautious or choppy.
"Cautious" was the correct description for the market open, too,
with the Russell 2000, Dow, Nasdaq, and SPX all opening near the
flat-line levels.  Those technicians who watch the first five
minutes of trading for market guidance had narrow ranges upon
which to base their calculations for the day's action.

Banks garnered much of the attention in the UK, Europe and the
U.S.  In the UK, a unit of the Royal Bank of Scotland's purchase
of Charter Financial sent banking stocks lower.  In the eurozone,
German banks gained after Dresdner Bank reported its first net
profit after five quarters of losses.  Other eurozone banks
gained, too, with Credit Suisse saying that it remained
optimistic about this year.

Germany's Schroeder reportedly urged that German banks should
consolidate soon.  The FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX all closed
higher, with the FTSE gaining 0.49 percent; the CAC 40, 0.77
percent; and the DAX, 0.79 percent.  The DAX recovered the 4000
level again, closing at 4022.10.

In the U.S., Charter Financial surged, jumping from a close
Tuesday at $35.95 to an open at $44.00.  The stock closed at
$43.86, up 22 percent. Although I don't believe that either the
BIX or the BKX includes CF as a component, both banking-related
indexes posted gains in early trading.  Here caution and
defensive posturing soon asserted itself, also, as these indices
traded in a narrow range.

Annotated Chart of the BIX:



Perhaps that caution toward banking stocks could be partially
attributed to the Mortgage Bankers Association's release of the
composite index of mortgage loan applications.  For the week
ended April 30, mortgage loans rose a healthy 4.4 percent, with
purchase and refinance indices rising 4.1 and 4.7 percent,
respectively.  Adjustable-rate mortgages fell, however, and the
refinance proportion of the mortgage activity stayed steady.  A
look at stocks that might be impacted by a slowdown in
refinancing showed stocks such as Sears (S), Whirlpool (WHR),
Lowe's (LOW), and HomeDepot (HD) displaying mixed trading
patterns, so that it was difficult to make any judgments about
the reception of the Mortgage Bankers Association's numbers.
Those stocks tended to show either small-range days or else
small-bodied candles with long shadows or wicks, perhaps
confirming the indecision, but that conclusion may be a bit of a
stretch.

At 10:00 EST, the Institute for Supply Management released its
index of U.S. services industries, showing April's number rising
to 68.4 from March's 65.8.  Estimates for this number had ranged
from 60-69 according to one report and a narrower 63-65 according
to another.  One market strategist commented that the ISM number,
while increasing, demonstrated a loss in momentum.  The ISM
attributed the rise to increased consumer spending due to job
gains and tax refunds, and corporate investments that led to
increased demand in the services sector.  The prices-paid
component rose to 68.6 percent from the previous 65.7 percent,
while the new orders and employment components rose more
modestly.

With our economy deemed a services-based economy, the markets
spent a few minutes digesting the number and the various
components and then began climbing.  Market watchers soon
tempered their enthusiasm.  Indices quickly settled into
symmetrical triangles on their five-minute charts, suggesting
that the breakouts would not come until later.  The indices began
breaking through the bottom support of those triangles about
midday, with the Dow one of the first to break through that
support and the S&P 500 one of the last.

However, caution can attach itself to selling behavior as well as
to buying behavior, and the indices didn't retreat far.  They
soon rose to test those broken supporting trendlines.  The SPX
was the first to retest that trendline, too, and the only one
among the Dow, Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and SPX to do so, showing
that it was performing strongly relative to the others.  The
Russell never closely approached that former supporting trendline
on the five-minute chart, and, by the end of the day, even the
SPX had produced a possible intraday, unconfirmed H&S just below
that trendline.  Other market watchers differed in the relative
ratings of the indices, labeling the Nasdaq as the strongest-
performing index and attributing that behavior to Banc of
America's upgrade of Dell to a buy rating from its former neutral
rating.  Dell closed higher by 1.13 percent.

Earnings reports produced mixed results, contributing to the
hesitation and uncertainty, with CVS gaining 1.35 percent after
its Q1 report showed the company beating estimates by three
cents.  Big gainers included Cypress Semiconductor (CY), gaining
5.83 percent after raising forecasts for Q2 earnings but not
revenue; IMPAX Laboratories (IPXL), soaring 17.61 percent after
reporting its first-ever quarterly profit; Mace Security (MACE),
gaining a whopping 80.48 percent after reporting a 300 percent
gain in revenue from one unit; Hong Kong's telecom firm
PacificNet (PACT), heading up 29.74 percent after raising its Q2
outlook and approving a stock buy-back plan; and RF Monolithics
(RFMI), climbing 7.62 percent after the manufacturer of radio
frequency components raised its Q3 outlook.  Other gainers in the
news included Coke (KO), gaining 1.63 percent after naming E.
Neville Isdell its new chairman and CEO.

Brokerage and insurance services firm Prudential Financial (PRU)
headed down 1.75 percent after reporting 74 cents per share,
beating estimates by a penny, but other stocks fell harder.
Decliners balanced the advancers, with optical- components
manufacturer Bookham Technology (BKHM) plummeting 33.11 percent
after reporting a Q1 loss; Gric Communications (GRIC), a mobile
and remote worker software-maker, diving 44.51 percent after
reporting a Q1 loss and saying it likely would not make a profit
all year, thereby collecting a downgrade from Needham & Co.;
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND), dropping 15.51 percent after
reporting a bigger-than-expected Q1 loss, although that loss was
narrower than the year-ago period; online travel services company
Orbitz (ORBZ), dropping 7.33 percent after lowering expectations
for Q2 revenue; and perhaps of particular interest to those
watching the homebuilders, Palm Harbor Homes (PHHM), falling
12.27 percent after announcing a plan to reduce debt and raise
money for general corporate purposes by selling convertible
notes.

Without guidance from Asian markets in overnight trading, with
remaining uncertainty about the timing of U.S. rate hikes and
rate hike decisions due in Europe and the U.K., with big
advancers competing with big decliners, and, most important of
all, with uncertainty over the jobs number due this Friday,
perhaps it was foreseeable that markets would display
uncertainty.  That indecision proves evident from a study of the
index charts.

The Russell 2000 trades within a formation that some deem
bearish, but it hasn't yet broken to either the upside or the
downside.

Annotated Chart for the Russell 2000:



The Nasdaq remains mired in a large triangular formation.

Annotated Daily Chart for the Nasdaq:



The SPX sports its own triangle.  Although these triangular
formations are generally considered continuation patterns, and so
suggest that the breakout will likely come to the upside, it's
possible to look at the SPX pattern from another and less
neutral-to-bullish perspective, adding to the confusion.

Annotated Chart for the SPX:



The Dow's chart displays the same indecision as seen on other
index charts.

Annotated Chart for the Dow:



Caution ruled the trading pattern on Wednesday and indecision
colors these charts.  As painful as it might be for active
traders to wait for markets to break out of these consolidation
patterns, I don't believe we'll know which direction the markets
are headed until they do so.  I also caution that trading can
become more volatile and less conducive to technical analysis as
the triangles narrow toward their apexes.  When will those
breakouts occur?  Not until a catalyst occurs.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, retailers report
their same-store sales figures.  Among retailers reporting
Wednesday afternoon, Men's Wearhouse (MW) reported April same-
store sales up 10.4 percent, American Eagle (AEOS) reported sales
up 8.3 percent, Hot Topic (HOTT) SSS rose 0.7 percent, and West
Marine (WMAR) SSS rose 7.6 percent.  Somehow it seems unlikely
that same- store sales would provide the catalyst that would
finally break indices out of their months-long consolidation
patterns, however.  More likely catalysts would include some of
the possibilities mentioned earlier:  a surprise decision
Thursday morning by the ECB, a pronouncement out of China, or a
new development in the Nikkei, opening for the first time in
three days.  Even those seem unlikely catalysts as the global
economic community awaits those U.S. jobs numbers on Friday.
That's the more likely catalyst.

A small possibility exists that tomorrow's U.S. economic numbers
could produce movement in the U.S. markets, but caution and
indecision may keep market participants from reacting to these
reports.  Economic reports for tomorrow include the Q1
Productivity number to be released before the market opens, with
estimates ranging from a 3.0-4.0% rise after last quarter's 2.6%
rise.   Although with inflationary worries rising, some attention
will be paid to unit labor cost index component, the GDP's
Employment Cost Index last week already broke the bad news that
costs were increasing faster than expected.  Most do not consider
Thursday's number market moving because the GDP gives an advance
look at this component.  In addition, initial claims will be
released ahead of the market open, with at least one forecast at
344,000, a drop from the previous 346,500.  Since this number can
be volatile, market watchers will probably give more weight to
the non-farm payrolls to be released Friday.

While "caution" was the word-of-the-day for Wednesday's trading,
perhaps "patience" should be Thursday's.  Those consolidation
patterns near their breakout points, but by the nature of those
patterns, we must remain patient until they do.


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Check the Site Later Tonight For Jeff's Index Trader Article
http://members.OptionInvestor.com/itrader/marketwrap/iw_050504_1.asp


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**************
TRADERS CORNER
**************

Playing with SPX Projections (and a look at the gold stocks)
by Keene Little

Since we unfortunately lost the Market Monitor today, I thought
I'd provide an end-of-day wrap from my perspective. Today's price
action left little to be desired as far as trading opportunities
go--seemed like summer trading has already begun. So I thought I'd
play with some EW projections and share my ideas with you. The
first chart is the SPX daily chart and is essentially the same one
I've shared with you before. I "stretched" it out a bit in time to
reflect my thinking that we'll be in a narrowing trading range
through the summer. This chart shows a break-out to the upside in
July but that's only because I needed to fit the chart on this
page. I actually think the consolidation will last into
August/September, but that's pure speculation on my part.





Today's price action was far too corrective to give me a bullish
sense about it. It seems like it's trying awfully hard to gain
some ground but I believe it's just setting up the next leg down.
The following SPX 180-min chart shows my expectation in that
regard and is merely zeroing in on the previous daily chart.






So in a nutshell I'm expecting another leg down, but it may not
come tomorrow (Thursday, May 6th) since it seems the market is on
hold until the rest of the economic reports come out Friday
morning. Again, this is speculation on my part since trying to
predict the market's direction is harder than it was to predict
the Bennifer marriage. But it would fit with previous action and
now I'll monitor this to see if it follows through. It's possible
we're winding up for a shot to the upside on Thursday/Friday but
it's not the higher probability play as I see it. I think a break
of the uptrend line drawn from the May 3rd low will be a good
signal to try a short play. As of the close tonight (Wednesday,
May 5th), a break below SPX 1119 would be a confirmed break of the
uptrend line.

The gold stocks

A quick update on the gold stocks--the first move up from the
recent low on May 3rd looks impulsive. For any who are long this
index or stocks, that's a good thing, so far. We got a pullback
today and I'm watching for the size of the pullback and the form
of it. I'm watching for a 38-62% retracement of the rally off the
May 3rd low, which for XAU is 83.18-84.49. I like the fact that
the pattern of the move down today did a nice corrective a-b-c
where the two legs down (wave-a and wave-c) were equal at 84.44,
lining up nicely with the 38% retracement level at 84.49. Today's
low was at 84.43 so it's possible the pullback is over. Or it
could be just the first leg down of a larger degree correction. In
other words, we could get a bounce and then another leg down.
That's why the form of the bounce from here, assuming we get one,
will be telling--an overlapping corrective bounce says another low
is coming, whereas a clean impulsive rally will say we're on our
way up in the next leg higher (which would be wave-3 of this
initial move up).

For those who are watching NEM, it still has a very similar
pattern as XAU's. It has not pulled back as far as XAU since it
hasn't yet hit its 38% retracement level at 38.34. But it did have
a similar a-b-c correction where wave-a = wave-c at 38.55. NEM's
low today was 38.53.

There is a large gap in each of these from the jump up on May 4th.
It could be a break-away and not get filled (at least not for a
very long time) or it will get filled in the next few days, if not
tomorrow, so we need to be aware of that possibility. The gap gets
filled on XAU at roughly 82.00 and NEM at 37.45. But if price
pulls back that far I'd be inclined to think a new low is coming
and therefore I'm currently leaning towards the thought that this
was a break-away gap that won't get filled. I'm watching the next
move in the pattern to give some clues in that regard and I'll
offer up some opinions as this picture develops.

Have a great night and let's hope we can get back together on the
Market Monitor tomorrow morning.

Keene Little


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 05-05-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: DGX, WHR
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Some Bullish Ideas


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

DGX - call
Adjust from $82.00 up to $83.75

WHR - put
WHR has been triggered on a trade at $64.69, stop at $68.96


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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DROPPED PUTS
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None


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**********
Watch List
**********

Some Bullish Ideas

L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 63.09 change: +1.64

WHAT TO WATCH: Following a strong rally off the March lows, LLL
ran into resistance near the $62.50 level in early April and since
then has been working on a breakout over that resistance.  The
breakout arrived today, and the stock pushed through the $62 level
on solid volume.  If this is a bonified breakout, then we can look
for the stock to work its way towards the $70 level.  Look for
entries either on a pullback towards the $62 level or on a
breakout over today's high.

Chart=


---

Patterson Dental Company - PDCO - close: 77.52 change: +1.86

WHAT TO WATCH: After its strong rally off strong support near $66,
PDCO has been consolidating in a broad range for the past several
weeks.  Last week's dip to the 30-dma found strong buying interest
and the stock is on the move again, nearing its recent highs.  A
breakout over $79.50 should set the stage for a rally up to the
$85 level.  Wait for the breakout before playing.

Chart=


---

Bausch & Lomb Inc. - BOL - close: 64.46 change: +1.66

WHAT TO WATCH: Following its earnings report a couple weeks ago,
shares of BOL fell back and gave what now looks to be a bear-trap
breakdown.  The buyers were out in force today, giving the stock a
strong rebound from the vicinity of the 30-dma.  Another strong
day will have the stock testing its recent highs just under $67.
Use a trigger over $66.75 and target a rally into the low $70s.

Chart=


---

Cooper Companies Inc. - COO - close: 56.92 change: +1.28

WHAT TO WATCH: Over the past 2 months, COO has been building a
very clean bullish wedge and the stock broke out of that pattern
on strong volume today, setting the stage for more upside action
in the immediate future.  Broken resistance in the $55-56 area
should now offer solid entries on a mild pullback, while
aggressive traders can look to buy strength on a continued move
over $57.50.  Target a rally first to $60 and then higher to the
$62-63 area, the logical measuring objective from the wedge
breakout.

Chart=


---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

ZBRA $75.67 - If you like volatility, then you've got to love the
price action in ZBRA.  While the daily chart shows the stock
continuing to push towards new highs, the intraday over the past
couple weeks shows a volatile consolidation that appears ready to
break to the upside.  Use a trigger over the recent highs at
$76.75 and use an initial target in the $81-82 area.

JCI $55.41 - The broad market weakness last week looks like it
finally cracked the bottom of JCI's trading range.  At the same
time, the stock appears to be finding support at the bottom of its
descending channel and right at the 200-dma.  Look for a failed
rebound near the 50-dma to provide for new bearish entries,
targeting a drop through the 200-dma to test strong support near
$52.


*******************
FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you may go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you may simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


**********
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**********

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