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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 05-17-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

In Section One:

Wrap: Market Skids Lower
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: An I for an I


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     05-17-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9906.91 -105.96 10009.92  9862.77 1.72 bln    836/2016
NASDAQ   1876.64 - 27.61  1887.74  1865.40 1.49 bln    734/2654
S&P 100   530.40 -  5.07   535.47   528.27   Totals   1570/4670
S&P 500  1084.10 - 11.60  1095.70  1079.36
RUS 2000  535.34 -  8.42   543.76   530.68
DJ TRANS 2812.33 - 36.56  2848.09  2785.50
VIX        19.96 +  1.49    20.45    19.65
VXO        21.03 +  2.10    21.42    20.32
VXN        29.19 +  0.15    29.85    29.05
Total Volume 3,707M
Total UpVol    527M
Total DnVol  3,137M
52wk Highs      39
52wk Lows      337
TRIN          2.59
PUT/CALL      1.22
*******************************************************************

Market Skids Lower

The head of the Iraqi Governing Council Izzadine Saleem, was
killed today in a car bombing near a U.S. checkpoint in central
Baghdad and sent the markets to a late morning plunge. The
killing was the second member of the U.S.-appointed council
killed since last year and has dealt a blow to U.S. efforts to
stabilize Iraq and the handover of sovereignty to the Iraqis that
is supposed to happen on June 30. A previously unknown group, the
Arab Resistance Movement has claimed responsibility for the
bombing, saying that its fighters carried out the operation
against "the traitor and mercenary" Mr. Saleem.

Then if that wasn't enough to make the market skiddy, a roadside
bomb containing sarin nerve agent exploded near a U.S. military
convoy in Iraq where two people were treated for minor exposure,
however, no serious injuries were reported.

But even before the news came out of Iraq, stocks started a
decline overnight in Asia when India's markets took the biggest
one day plunge in its 129-year history on the first trading day
after an election. The Bombay Stock Exchange fell as much as
16.6%, before recovering late to close 11.1% lower at 4505.16.
Economists and traders are concerned about the economic policies
of the government of Sonia Gandhi, whose party and its communist
allies took over Parliament Friday.

Closer to home the Wall Street Journal announced the U.S. has
been filling its oil reserves since September 11, 2001 and, along
with other nations, have amassed 1.4 billion barrels. Some are
saying these reserves need to be released to bring oil prices
down, others are saying if Bush releases these reserves it is
because it is an election year. However, U.S. policy dictates
that the strategic reserve be used for a crisis, not to lower
prices. Some look at oil at 41.50/bbl as a crisis.

On to the markets.


The retracement brackets I have placed on the following charts
are from the March lows 2003 to the March highs 2004. I have also
put in a retracement level at 28.65%, which is 1/2 way between
19.1 and 38.2%. The teal MA line is the 200 EMA.

NYA.X (New York Stock Exchange Index)



The NYA has been bouncing off the 200 EMA since May 10th and
needs to break above March lows of 6364, which happen to be the
19.1% retracement, before I see a trend change.

After a drop like we have seen in this market you would expect
MACD to be showing at least a little positive divergence but alas
it is not. I cannot see much bullishness in the NYA chart other
than the 200 EMA is holding.

If the NYA were able to break above its March lows I would turn
neutral, not bullish and not bearish. To turn bullish I would
need to see a series of higher highs and higher lows and a break
of the swing high at 6568

SPX.X (S&P 500 Index)



The SPX is very similar to the NYA and needs to get back above
its 19.1% retracement and March lows before I switch from a
bearish stance to neutral. Until then the path of least
resistance is down. However, the SPX is showing a possible
positive MACD divergence so this market is not quite a bearish as
the NYA but I still don't see a lot of bullishness in this chart.
Here also to turn bullish the last two swing highs at 1103 and
1128 would have to be breached.

RUT.X (Russell 200 Index)



The Russell 2000 is without a doubt weaker than the SPX and NYA
trading below its 200 EMA and all the way to the 28.65%
retracement. (The 28.65 retracement is 1/2 way between 19.1 and
38.2.) To repaint the above chart with bullishness, this market
needs to break its last swing high at 552, which just happens to
be the March lows and the 19.1% retracement and then next swing
high at 575. A break of the down trend line would definitely be
bullish but not necessary to turn me bullish on this market.

COMPX.X (NASDAQ composite)



The COMPX not only needs to break above its March lows but back
above the 200 EMA. It has spent way too long below this level and
it is making NASDAQ bulls very nervous. If/when it breaks these
levels, it then has the job of making higher highs, which would
be a print above 1970 and then 2060. The only thing I see bullish
about this chart is the possible positive MACD divergence.

NDX.X (Nasdaq 100 Index)



The NDX is the only major index to NOT break its March lows. It
is below the 200 EMA and trading at the 28.65 retracement but not
below its March lows. And it also could be making a positive MACD
divergence. However, (there is always a however isn’t there?) NDX
needs to prove bullishness to me just like the other markets need
to do. It needs a higher high above the last swing high at 1426,
which would put it above its 200 EMA, then it needs a sustained
move above the 19.1% retracement level at 1442. A break of the
down trend line would be very bullish but I don't think necessary
to repaint this chart bullishly.

This is the market that you would be looking to for leadership
when making a bottom. Why you ask? NDX's relative performance to
the performance of the SPX measures the willingness of market
participants to take on risk. This is because the stocks that
populate the NDX usually have higher growth and higher risk
profiles than the stocks in the S&P.  So when investors are
becoming less risk averse and becoming more concerned about
capturing potential upside than avoiding potential downside the
NDX trends higher relative to the SPX. Conversely, when investors
start to become more concerned about downside risk than upside
potential the NDX begins to under-perform the SPX. So let’s look
at a chart gives us a picture of this relationship.

NDX/SPX spread



The top chart is the daily NDX and the bottom chart is what I
call the spread between the NDX and the SPX [the formula I use is
(NDX + SPX)/SPX] and measures the strength of NDX to SPX. NDX is
making lower lows today but the spread is not. This is the NDX
becoming stronger compared to the SPX.

TRAN (Dow Jones Transport Index)



Like the NDX, the Transport Index (TRAN) is another market that
has not breached its March lows. You would think the price of oil
reaching 41.55/bbl today, an all time high, would have had a
devastating effect on this index but it has not. I find this
quite bullish for the market overall.

All in all the market is bearish but in a holding pattern. The
fact that the transports and the NDX have not breached their
March lows keeps me optimistic but with a great deal of caution
built in. The individual markets will have to prove to me they
are worthy of my bullishness but not until then will I move out
of the bear camp.

I believe we are in for a relief bounce and where that bounce
takes us will tell us if it is just a relief bounce or a true
trend change. I have put forward where I think you could turn
neutral and then bullish in each of the major markets.

Jane Fox


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

An I for an I

Geopolitical events in Iraq and India sent global markets notably
lower in Monday's trade, which had U.S. equity markets extending
last week's losses with the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,084.10 -1.05%
falling 11.6 points and setting a bearish tone to start the week.

Treasuries, which witnessed an intra-day reversal to buying on
Friday, saw what I consider defensive buying in today's session
as investors sought some safety at higher yields.

The loan U.S. economic report showed manufacturing activity in
the northeast slowing in May.  The New York Empire State Index
fell to 30.2 in May from a revised 34.0 reading the previous
month.

Readings above zero indicate expansion, with readings above 30
indicating a high level of economic expansion.

The drop in the index was larger than expected, which may have
brought some buyers back toward treasuries, as the prices paid
index edged down to 56.7 from a record 57.0 in April.  Still, no
manufactures reported declining prices, just some abating of
recent price gains.

The New York Fed said its order index rose to 36.6 in May from
30.6 in April, while shipments rose to a record 42.3 from 39.5.
Unfilled orders jumped to 15.7, its highest level in more than a
year.

Two headlines came out of Iraq today, where oil jumped to a
record high of $41.85 before retreating back near $41.55 per
barrel as the head of the Iraq governing council, Abdel-Zahraa
Othman, was killed by a car bomb.  Othman was the second member
of the U.S.-appointed council to be assassinated since September,
and led to uncertainty over the handover of sovereignty on June
30.

President Bush said the strike only added to U.S. resolve for
turning over the Iraqi government to Iraqi's by the June 30
deadline.

Later in the day, the U.S. military said an improvised bomb armed
with sarin gas exploded in Iraq when a convoy passed, releasing a
small amount of the nerve agent.  Details regarding where the
sarin gas bomb event took place were not disclosed, should there
be others in the proximity.

The discovery of the sarin nerve agent was the first such find of
weapons of mass destruction, since the war in Iraq began.

While nobody would admit that the U.S.'s discovery of sarin gas
in Iraq could be viewed as "positive" news, geopolitical analysts
did say it could solidify the reasoning behind coalition forces
involvement in Iraq.

Exacerbating today's early session weakness was India's benchmark
stock exchange plummeting as much as 16% in intraday trading,
which wreaked havoc on overseas markets, as investors became
increasingly concerned over whether the new Congress Party
government, led by Sonia Gandhi, might slow the privatization of
state-run companies after defeating the National Democratic
Alliance in elections last week.

India's Bombay Stock Exchange ($BSE) Chart - Daily Intervals



The sharp 11% decline for India's Bombay Stock Exchange was
reported as the largest single-day loss in its 129-year history.

Both the Networking Index (NWX.X) 223.88 -2.82% and Combined
Telecom Index (IXTCX) 166.01 -2.31%, which were today's sector
losers, fell sharply after both Goldman Sachs and CIBC made note
that India's openness to privatization has been a great catalyst
for technology shares.

Both Goldman Sachs and CIBC said the telecom landscape may see
some negative impact from geopolitical uncertainty in India,
depending on which policies Ms. Gandhi embarks on, as elections
held last week would have increased influence from the
communist/left parties in the newly formed coalition government.

Telecom infrastructure companies with exposure to India had LM
Ericsson (NSADAQ:ERICY) $24.87 -3.26%, UTStarcom (NASDAQ:UTSI)
$26.36 -2.04% and Nokia (NYSE:NOK) $13.08 -0.83% under selling
pressure, with Nokia (NOK) recording a 52-week low in today's
trade.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) $62.56 -1.71% was pressured as India has
been one of the fastest growing markets for the company's CDMA
technology.

Goldman and CIBC said eventual decisions regarding continued
privatization, or the possibility of reverting back to de-
privatization could have consequences for OEM (original equipment
manufacturers) like handset makers Kyocer (NYSE:KYO) $71.29
-1.46%, Nokia (NYSE:NOK) $13.08 -0.83% and Motorola (NYSE:MOT)
$18.65 -1.27%.  If so, handset chipmakers with exposure to India
could bring uncertainty toward RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ:RFMD)
$7.13 -1.65%, TriQuint Semiconductor (NASDAQ:TQNT) $5.18 -4.05%,
Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) $8.58 -1.15% and Anadigics
(NASDAQ:ANAD) $4.30.

Sector gainers in today's session were limited, with Treasuries
finding a strong round of buying with the benchmark 10-year bond
getting a pop at the open and finish at its session, with yield
($TNX.X) falling 8.9 basis points, and roughly 20 basis points
from Friday's intra-day high, to close at 4.699%.

10-year Treasury YIELD ($TNX.X) - Daily Intervals



While today's New York Empire State Index was well below
consensus estimates of 34.0, today's gains for Treasuries would
have to be viewed as being largely driven by defensive buying,
with perhaps some bears locking in recent gains as the 10-year
YIELD slips below the 4.750% yield level.

I say this as the Continuous CRB Index ($CRB.X) 268.36 -0.3%,
while below the 269 level I thought might bring some renewed
buying toward Treasuries, if not broader bond market, fell just
0.83 points by the close.

With Treasuries being the "least risky" bond investment under
times of geopolitical uncertainty, I would still analyze today's
bond market trade as being more defensive, when I note that the
iShares Goldman Sachs InvestTop Corporate Bond (AMEX:LQD) $106.49
+0.61%, which is in general terms higher RATED corporate bonds,
found gains, while at the RISKIEST end of the bond spectrum, the
Pacholder High Yield (AMEX:PHF) $8.19 -2.03% gave back all of
Friday's gains, as if bond traders were risk averse due to
geopolitical events.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 04/17/04 Close



Spot Gold finished up $2.80, or 0.74% as the U.S. Dollar Index
(dx00y) 90.96 -0.75% recoups some of today's losses, but still
trades below Friday's close where the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y)
found its overnight lows this morning at 03:55-04:00 AM EDT at
90.51, where after equities opened at 09:30 AM EDT, the U.S.
Dollar Index (dx00y) matched the overnight low of 90.51 and as
the dollar lifted from those levels, Spot Gold eased from its
morning highs.  Currency traders said the dollar's early declines
came from overnight hedging on expected weakness for stocks and
strength for Treasuries.  A complex trade and most likely related
to complex hedge activities.

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) 180.08 +1.52% was the only
equity-based sector in my U.S. Market Watch screen to gain more
than 1%.  The Oil Service Index ($OSX.X) 98.89 +0.39% was the
only other equity sector/index to manage a gain.

Despite a drop in Treasury yield, the interest sensitive S&P
Banks Index (BIX.X) 332.18 -0.88% and Dow Jones Home Construction
Index (DJUSHB) 549.04 -1.52% traded lower.

Pivot Analysis Matrix -



Friday's close found the INDU, DIA, SPX, SPY and OEX all closing
above this week's pivot, but geopolitical events found gap lower
opens, where today's intra-day highs did not see trades back at
the WEEKLY Pivots.  As such, the UNEXPECTED (at least concerning
Iraq events) would have the WEEKLY Pivots as a near-term
resistance level, where correlative MONTHLY S2 and WEEKLY Pivot
in the Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,906.91 -1.05% looks more
formidable.

The S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 530.40 -0.94% was the only major index
within the WEEKLY Pivot matrix to not see trade at its WEEKLY
Pivot.

In recent Market Monitor posts, I've been tracking some
historical trade within the WEEKLY Pivot level for the NASDAQ-100
Index (NDX.X) 1,379.90 -1.42% and Semiconductor Index (SOX.X)
444.94 -1.34% where I thought a move above their WEEKLY Pivots
could find strength building for the next week-and-a-half.
Needless to say, there was little shot for that to happen at the
open.

Due to width of a SOX/NDX chart work I began back on Sunday May
9th, I can't display the chart comparisons of the NDX/SOX and
what I was looking at, but if you click this
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/charts/510200473228AM_72.asp
last week's trade looked to be similar to that found for the week
of 03/22-03/26, where after the SOX.X showed some strength within
its weekly pivot RELATIVE to the NDX, unison breaks above the
WEEKLY Pivot saw strength build to the remainder of the week and
following two weeks.

Last week (for 05/10 to 05/14) the SOX.X showed some relative
strength in its weekly pivot to traded at its WEEKLY S1 while the
NDX.X was weaker at its WEEKLY S2.  It was this week (for 05/17
to 05/21) that both the NDX/SOX showed similar setup for strength
ABOVE their WEEKLY Pivots.

Considering today's action, I would have to think WEAKNESS below
these pivots.

I used the NDX/SOX as both open and close at 09:30 AM EDT and
04:00 PM EDT, where the QQQ closes at 04:15 PM EDT and often
times, the last 15-minutes of trade will create some disconnect
for SOX/QQQ correlations.

NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) - Daily Intervals



Late Friday I thought there was good shot for a gap ABOVE the
QQQ/NDX WEEKLY Pivots for a rally to WEEKLY R2 of $36.00, which
is this month's option expiration "Max Pain" level.  The QQQ
failed that scenario as I did not forecast some of today's
geopolitical events.  As such, must view the WEEKLY Pivot as
resistance.  A break below $34.09 could well see some long
liquidations in the QQQ from the noted 186.6 million shares
traded on Wednesday of last week between $34.27 and $34.28 as
trader/investors begin contemplating new levels of support on a
break of the March lows ($34.01).

Dow Industrials (INDU) Chart - Daily Intervals



The Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,906.91 -1.05% had been holding
closes near its rising longer-term 200-day SMA, but today's close
is the lowest since December 5, 2003, and hints that bulls are
perhaps losing their appetite.  Two overlapping resistance levels
at the 9,980 and 10,100 levels.

Late today, I thought it best to have some bearish exposure to
the indices and profiled a PARTIAL 1/2 position in the Dow
Diamonds (AMEX:DIA) $99.56 -0.88% and the JULY $100 Puts (DIASV)
for $3.30, no stop and target of $92.00, which would be
equivalent to INDU 9,200.  This type of target, in my opinion,
would only come under more extreme geopolitical events.

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 05-17-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.

In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: CAKE, GM, MSTR
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Never Had A Chance


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OCO Stop & Profit Orders                        OneStopOption
All types of Spreads and Buy Writes             888-281-9569
Auto-Trade ket Monitor Signals
Personal Service and Education


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http://www.OneStopOption.com

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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

CAKE - put
Adjust from $44.10 down to $42.75

---

GM - put
Adjust from $47.25 down to $46.75

---

MSTR - put
Adjust from $48.05 down to $47.00


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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Full Service Brokers

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Brokerage Group, addressing the demand for personalized,
experienced service for both securities* and futures trading
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and Alan Knuckman specialize in live assistance of stock*,
option* and futures traders. The combination of the proven Man
Financial global presence and the convenience of one group for
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success.

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**********
Watch List
**********

Never Had A Chance

Genzyme Corp. - GENZ - close: 41.54 change: -1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Relentlessly pressured by the weakness in the
Biotechnology sector, GENZ has been breaking support on a regular
basis lately.  Last week the stock finally broke down below the
multi-month ascending trendline support near $42.50 and with
today's drop, the stock is close to taking out strong horizontal
support near $40.  Use a trigger just below that level and target
a drop down to next support near $35-36.  Note that the stock is
currently on a PnF Sell signal with a downside target of $31.

Chart=


---

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 43.24 change: -0.98

WHAT TO WATCH: Bearish plays in the Housing sector don't set up
much prettier than this.  Following its precipitous decline from
the high $50s, LEN has now turned the 200-dma from support to
resistance and it looks poised for another major breakdown as
investors fixate on the spectre of rising interest rates.  Trigger
entries on a break below $42 support and target an initial drop to
$38 support, with a longer-term target of $35 in mind.  Use a
tight stop at $45, just over Friday's intraday high, as well as
the 200-dma.

Chart=


---

S P X Corp. - SPW - close: 41.25 change: -0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: For the past few weeks, we've been monitoring the
price action in shares of SPW, as the stock looks like it is
setting up for a major breakdown.  Horizontal support just above
$41 is just barely holding the stock up and we want to wait for a
real breakdown before playing.  Use a trigger of $41 and then
target a drop towards the $35-36 area.  Volume has been rather
weak lately, so it would be prudent to make sure any breakdown is
accompanied by an increase in selling volume.

Chart=


---

Imclone Systems Inc. - IMCL - close: 74.07 change: +2.71

WHAT TO WATCH: Remember when we looked at this Biotechnology stock
last week near $70, thinking it had the potential for a bullish
move?  Well, that move is gaining some traction and a rally up to
retest the $80 resistance level is looking more and more likely.
A dip back near the $71-72 level would be a gift of an entry
point, but with the recent volatility, we might just get it.

Chart=


---


===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

IBM $85.53 - We've been talking about IBM off and on since the
stock broke its 200-dma and the steady deterioration in price is
working nicely for the bears.  After a week of trying to build
support near the $86 level, the stock broke down again this
morning and it looks like there's still room for new entries into
this bearish trend.  Target entries on a failed bounce in the $86-
87 area and look for a decline down to the PnF bearish price
target at $81.  Use a tight stop just over the 20-dma in case of a
premature trend reversal.

BWA $76.90 - Continuing its bearish trend, BWA rolled over lat
last week just under the 10-dma and the stock plunged this morning
to end the day just above the most recent low.  Use a trigger
under the $76.50 level for new bearish entries, targeting a drop
to strong support near $70.  Note that the PnF chart is quite
bearish already, with a downside target of $63.


*******************
FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You mar
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you mar go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you mar simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you mar call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You mar also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


**********
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**********

Please read our disclaimer at:
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