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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 06/28/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 06-28-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Iraq Officially Free Yet Stocks Sink
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Turnover


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     06-28-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10357.09 - 14.75 10464.38 10337.70 1.65 bln   1245/1564
NASDAQ   2019.82 -  5.65  2039.93  2013.73 1.59 bln   1324/1725
S&P 100   550.48 +  0.73   555.01   549.27   Totals   2569/3289
S&P 500  1133.35 -  1.08  1142.60  1131.62
RUS 2000  584.10 -  3.60   588.82   583.38
DJ TRANS 3177.97 + 13.79  3205.56  3164.45
VIX        16.07 +  0.88    16.13    15.19
VXO        15.60 +  0.71    15.86    14.65
VXN        20.59 +  1.63    20.72    19.45
Total Volume 3,567M
Total UpVol  1,261M
Total DnVol  2,242M
52wk Highs     303
52wk Lows       81
TRIN          1.63
PUT/CALL      0.62
*******************************************************************

Iraq Officially Free Yet Stocks Sink
by James Brown

Stocks were off to a strong start this morning on the surprising
news that the formal handover of power in Iraq had occurred two
days earlier than expected.  Unfortunately, U.S. equities began
to weaken in late afternoon trading and the major indices turned
negative by the closing bell.  Disappointing comments from Dow-
components General Motors (GM) and Wal-Mart (WMT) weighed on the
index while concerns over rising rates resurfaced to tug at the
broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.

After fourteen months of a U.S.-led occupation the coalition
formally handed over the political power in Iraq to its new
interim government.  The move has long been expected to occur on
the June 30th deadline but in what some are calling a brilliant
move the Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi urged an earlier
turnover to catch insurgents off guard.

The new provisional government's main focus is to prepare the
country for general elections by January 2005.  Security remains
the real challenge today and the new government will continue to
work with the U.S.-led coalition forces numbering more than
100,000 men.  Global markets were also happy to hear that NATO
has stepped up to offer training to security forces for Iraq's
new government.  President Bush, who was in Turkey for a UN
meeting, praised the move calling it a "proud day" for the Iraqi
people.  European stocks, which had opened lower on the session,
were strongly positive by the closing bell.  The English FTSE
jumped 24 points to close at 4518.  The French CAC rose 29 points
to 3771.  The German DAX soared 56 points to 4069.

Unfortunately, U.S. averages weren't so bullish.  The Dow Jones
Industrials rallied to 10,464 (+93 points) early in the session
before drifting sideways.  Around 1:30 PM ET the index began to
sink into what would become a sharp afternoon sell-off.  The
Industrials closed down nearly 15 points to 10,357 just points
above its simple 100-dma.  The NASDAQ Composite managed to hit
new two-month highs earlier in the session at 2,039 but slipped
sharply toward recent support in the 2013-2015 range in the
afternoon decline.  The NASDAQ bounced back to 2019 (-5.6 points)
at the close.  Meanwhile the S&P 500 index mimicked the action in
the Dow but only lost a point to 1133.

Chart of the Dow Jones Industrials:



Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:



Market internals were bearish by the close.  Declining stocks
outnumbered advancers 5 to 4 on the NYSE and 17 to 13 on the
NASDAQ.  Down volume overshadowed up volume on both exchanges
while total volume came in somewhat light.  Technology, energy
and interest-rate sensitive sectors took the heaviest beating.
The GHA.X hardware index lost 1.5%.  The SOX semiconductor index
slipped 1.76%.  The NWX networking index fell 1.37%.  The OSX oil
services index dropped more than 2%.  Homebuilders sank to a 3%
decline on rising interest rate worries.  The successful transfer
in Iraq undermined demand for gold, which is seen as a safe haven
when geo-political worries rise.  Gold futures melted for a $1.90
loss to $401.30 and ounce while the XAU gold & silver index
tarnished with a 2.74% decline.

Crude oil was a big story today.  August crude oil futures fell
$1.31 (about 4%) to $36.24 a barrel nearing the psychological $36
level and its simple 100-dma.  The drop was fueled by the Iraq
handover of power and news that another Iraq pipeline in Basra
had become operational.  Traders are expecting there to be less
sabotage now that the new Iraq government is in power since any
new damage would be seen as an attack against the Iraqi people
and not the coalition and the West.  The drop in oil fueled a big
move in the Dow Jones Transportation index, which hit new four-
year highs above the 3200 level intraday before slipping back to
3177.  Several stocks in the sector like JBHT, UPS, and FDX all
hit new all-time highs during the session.

The XAL airline index also managed to early morning gains on the
Iraq news and drop in oil prices despite negative headlines from
giant United Air Lines (symbol: UALAQ or UALAQ.OB).  United Air
Lines, which is struggling to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy,
was turned down for the third and final time for a $1.1 billion
government loan guarantee.  The three-member panel of the Air
Transportation Stabilization Board voted against giving UAL the
loan and said they would not accept any future requests from the
company.  UAL will have to look for financing from private
investors, which will force it to pay higher yields on its loans
and raising its expenses.  A number of UAL's rivals traded higher
on the news, since UAL may be forced to sell some of its assets
or more lucrative routes to raise cash.

Dow components General Motors (GM) and Wal-Mart (WMT) also issued
some bad news today.  Shares of GM sunk 2.4% to close right at
its simple 200-dma after its head of sales analysis said June
numbers would be disappointing.  Last month GM, the country's
largest automaker, posted huge numbers in May, which helped the
industry, hit an annual pace of 17.8 million units, the strongest
rate in nine months.  Now the industry expects June's totals to
be in the 16.3 million-unit range (that's for the whole sector
not just GM).  While this may not be a surprise for industry
watchers who knew last month's results would be hard to follow
it's not the kind of news Wall Street likes to hear.   On a
similar note Wal-Mart reported that June same-store sales would
likely fall in the 2%-4% range, below its previously forecasted
4%-6% range.  The world's largest retailer is blaming weak
Father's day sales and uncommonly cool weather in several parts
of the country hampering normal seasonal summer item sales.
Shares of WMT ended the session down 5 cents to $52.46.

The Altria Group (a.k.a. Phillip Morris, symbol: MO) happened to
be one of the Dow's best performing components.  Shares of MO
soared more than 5% intraday and closed at $49.60, up 3.76% as
investors responded to news in the government's lawsuit against
the tobacco industry.  Late Friday a U.S. district court judge
gave permission for the tobacco sector to appeal an earlier
decision regarding government prosecutor's plans to seek
disgorgement in billions of dollar in profits.  Currently U.S.
prosecutors are seeking a $280 billion reward in their fraud and
racketeering case against the industry.  The new decision will
allow tobacco companies to go to an appellate court and hopefully
dismiss the decision that "disgorgement" is an appropriate
remedy.  If the appellate court chooses to review the matter it
could delay the current lawsuit expected to begin in September.

Monday was not without its economic data.  The Commerce
Department reported that U.S. consumer spending rose 1% in May,
which was the best increase since October 2001.  Unfortunately,
real disposable incomes came in flat after being adjusted for
inflation.  Likewise the PCE price index or personal consumption
expenditure price index jumped 0.5%, the biggest move in more
than a year, indicating a rise in inflation.  The core PCE rate
only rose 0.2%.  Today's round of economic data helped fan the
rising interest rate fears.  While no one expects the FOMC to
raise rates by more than 1/4 point on Wednesday Wall Street is
now looking to the August meeting and wondering if a 50-point
hike is in the works.  Monday's data sent bonds lower and the 10-
year note hit a new seven-week low as its yield shot up to 4.7%.
CNBC mentioned that the month of May saw a record outflow of $17
billion from bond funds as investors worried about rising rates.

Tomorrow could be another tough session for interest rate
sensitive issues and mortgage lenders.  After the closing bell
tonight Washington Mutual (WM) lowered its 2004 earnings forecast
due to rising rates impacting its home-loan business.  Wall
Street analysts were expecting 2004 earnings to come in at $4.24
a share but WM now expects profits to fall in the $3.00-3.60
range.  WM's CEO Kerry Killinger sums it up in the company's
press release: "It now appears to us that the shift in the
interest rate environment in recent months, with a sharp increase
in long-term rates and a related reduction in mortgage volumes,
will continue through the rest of the year. The effects of these
changes are likely to outpace the timing of ongoing cost
reduction plans in our Mortgage Banking business."

Tuesday also brings the latest consumer confidence numbers (for
June) and begins the two-day FOMC meeting.  It is the FOMC
meeting that is likely to keep stocks trading sideways for the
next couple of sessions even though no one expects any surprises.
After the interest rate decision Wall Street will focus on the
Friday non-farm payrolls report, which should be positive for
stocks and the market if the current up trend remains in place.
I also want to remind readers that traders need to stay wary of
negative news out of Iraq.  Yes, the formal handover of power has
passed and without incident but odds are good that insurgents
will follow through on whatever evil plans they had set for the
June 30th deadline.


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Turnover

Handsome morning gains turned into fractional losses by the
close, where initial bullishness following the transfer of
sovereignty to the interim Iraq government faded by the close.

Dow component General Motors (NYSE:GM) $46.51 -2.39%, which has
been an important player in the Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,357
-0.14% rebound from the mid-May lows, became a fulcrum stock for
the Dow and other major indices turning over gain, after the
world's largest automaker said June sales were disappointing.

Stiffening the potential for a rebound session tomorrow was this
afternoon's news out of Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) that it was
cutting its 2004 earnings forecast, citing the impact of higher,
longer-term rates on its home lending business.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 06/28/04



Up until 03:00 PM EDT, the NASDAQ's NH/NL breadth was strong
enough that it looked like its 10-day NH/NL average ratio was
going to achieve the needed 64% reading to get turned back up
into a column of X.  However, by the close, today's NASDAQ 10-day
NH/NL ratio came up shy of 64%.  The TRIN built higher throughout
the session, as did the Market Volatility Index (VIX.X).
Suspicious considering this morning's gap higher for the major
indices.

Volumes were brisk at the NASDAQ, but well off Friday's
impressive 1.81 billion shares.

Pivot Analysis Matrix -



Some "funky" and most likely inaccurate trade reports at Friday's
close saw some meaningfully lower closing values reported for
both the S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) and S&P Banks Index (BIX.X), which
I believe to be in error.  As such, I've taken trade ticks from
the 04:00 close on Friday, and not those final values reported by
just about every data vendor I have viewed.

When reviewing Friday evening's Index Trader Wrap by Leigh
Stevens (to see what his TradeStation OEX close showed) I noticed
Leigh highlighted the Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,357.09 -0.14%
looking vulnerable to the 10,300.00 level, which now sets between
tomorrow's DAILY S1 and WEEKLY S1.

Dow Industrials (INDU) - Daily Intervals



Despite this morning's positive catalyst and news out of Iraq,
only the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,493.07 -0.35% was able to
breach Friday's highs.  While Dow 10,400 was a point of
resistance in recent weeks, the INDU has been finding some
selling between 10,475-10,500.  With July expiration just three
weeks away, and a 3-day weekend coming up (market's closed on
Monday in observance of U.S. Independence Day), I'm looking at
closing out previously profiled DIA July $100 puts near the
10,200 level, hopefully on a rising Market Volatility (VIX.X)
16.07 +5.79% spike near 18.00.

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) - Daily Intervals



When I get "bad ticks" or missing bars in a daily bar chart, I
will chart on a 720-minute interval (equivalent to 1 day's
trade), where it would certainly appear there was a bad tick at
Friday's close.  Thursday evening I was looking for some further
follow through in the OEX, up into that bigger yellow "blob" and
then a reversal back lower.  Didn't get it, and today's inability
to reclaim the MONTHLY R1 suggests sellers at 556.  I'm not
certain that the OEX could fall to its MONTHLY Pivot by
Wednesday's close, but a weak opening could see a test of the
WEEKLY S2 by Wednesday's close.  After Wednesday, we will
recalculate the MONTHLY pivot levels.

Banks may be under some early selling pressure tomorrow morning
after Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) $41.31 +0.31% fell to $36.84
after warning fiscal 2004 results would be below Wall Street's
expectations due to slowing in its mortgage lending business.  WM
is NOT a component of the BIX.X, but is a component of the KBW
Bank Index (BKX.X).

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart - Daily Intervals



If there's one thing that catches my eye tonight, it's this
week's WEEKLY S2.  Still sticking in my mind is the May 25 Index
Trader Wrap "A trimming of the hedge?" where I thought there
might have been a rather large hedge removed from the SPX, which
had the VIX.X spiking 11.7% that day.  Note how this week's
WEEKLY S2 now marks that 1,113.08 level, which is pretty darned
close to the 05/25/04 close (as if a computer tuned things up),
but how the WEEKLY S2 also marks that little retest where bulls
defended, or bears were more than eager to cover.  SPX 1,125 is
still July's "Max Pain" level.  Darned those puts options are
expensive looking at the July 1,125 put (SPTSE) at
$10.30 x $11.50.

Hmmm.... 1,125 less that $10.30 bid is equivalent to 1,114.70
(again.... close to 1,113.08).  I think the SPX.X is headed to
its WEEKLY S2, resistance now 1,140.

NASDAQ-100 Tracker (AMEX:QQQ) - Daily Intervals



The QQQ had two additional opportunities to make a bolder move
higher after trading $37.52 early, and feel a little spent near-
term.  Slightly troubling for bulls is the number of new highs in
the broader NASDAQ off of Friday's 168.  Once the Semiconductor
Index (SOX.X) 470.47 -1.76% turned red, and Microsoft
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $28.28 -1.01% reversed to unchanged, the QQQ lost
its defenders at $37.30.

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 06-28-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: None
Dropped Calls: EASI, PD
Dropped Puts: CCMP, MO
Watch List: Two More Days


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

None


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

Engineered Support Sys - EASI - cls: 56.17 chg: -2.52 stop: 55.99

Wow!  What a volatile day for EASI.  The stock was bullish
through most of the morning as Wall Street reacted positively to
the Iraq handover news.  Shares of EASI actually hit $60.02,
which was in our target range of $60-62.  Unfortunately, when the
afternoon turned sour and investors decided to hit the sell
button they rushed out in a hurry.  The DFI defense index fell
under the 750-level and its simple 10-dma.  EASI fell sharply to
lose more than 4% on big volume all in the last 2 1/2 hours.

Picked on June 20 at $ 56.22
Change since picked:  - 0.05
Earnings Date       05/25/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    297 thousand
Chart =


---

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 75.35 chg: -2.38 stop: 77.00

We knew it was coming.  Traders finally decided to take some
money off the table and the big drop in metal stocks, mostly
gold, echoed in shares of PD.  Fortunately, we had raised our
stop loss to $77.00 over the weekend so traders should have been
able to protect a large portion of the recent rally.  Keep an eye
on PD for a bounce in the $72.00-75.00 range.  The trend is still
bullish but shares need to consolidate its gains.

Picked on June 20 at $ 71.68
Change since picked:  + 3.67
Earnings Date       04/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    2.6 million
Chart =



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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

Cabot Micro. - CCMP - close: 28.95 chg: +0.18 stop: 29.51

CCMP turned in a volatile session.  For no apparent reason the
stock shot higher, breaking through resistance at $29.00, 29.50
and its simple 40-dma.  Then as it neared round-number resistance
at $30.00 and its 50-dma the stock rolled over with the rest of
the market.  If we had left our stop loss at $30.00, like we have
for two weeks, we'd be okay.  Unfortunately or fortunately,
depending on how you look at it, we lowered our stop to $29.51
over the weekend so we're stopped out of the play.  The trend is
still bearish, as is its P&F chart, but the downward momentum
does appear to be slowing so we're not too terribly disappointed
that we're out.

Picked on June 13 at $ 29.46
Change since picked:  - 0.51
Earnings Date       04/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    3.7 million
Chart =


---

Altria Group - MO - close: 49.60 change: +1.80 stop: 49.50

After teasing us with an apparent rollover on Friday, our MO play
blew up in our faces this morning, when the stock gapped sharply
higher in response to news that Tobacco firms would be allowed to
appeal the recent 'disgorgement' ruling.  That sent the stock
through our stop at the open, with price surging as high as the
50/200-dmas before price came tumbling back to earth to close just
slightly above our stop.  The technical pattern of lower highs has
now been broken, removing a key motivation for our play.  Clearly,
we have no choice but to drop MO tonight as a failed play.

Picked on June 15th at        $47.55
Change since picked:           +2.05
Earnings Date                7/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      6.65 mln



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**********
Watch List
**********

Two More Days

FLIR Systems, Inc. - FLIR - close: 54.17 change: +1.42

WHAT TO WATCH: After pulling back to test support at the 30-dma,
FLIR is marching to new highs again, breaking out over the early
June highs on Monday.  Use a break above today's high for an entry
trigger and target a rally towards the $60 level ahead of the
company's earnings report in late July.

Chart=


---

Imclone Systems Inc. - IMCL - close: 84.02 change: +1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Despite a lack of strength from the Biotechnology
sector lately, IMCL is continuing to push higher, closing at new
recent highs today.  Entries look favorable either on a break
above today's high or on a pullback and rebound from solid support
near $80.  Look for a breakout over the 2000 highs and a run
towards the $90 level.


Chart=


---

Int'l Business Machines - IBM - close: 88.71 change: -0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: The rollover in shares of IBM appears to be picking
up some speed and Monday's break below both the $89 level and the
50-dma looks bearish.  Trigger entries below today's low and
target a drop first to the May lows near $85 and then continuation
down towards the $80-81 area.  Note that the PnF chart is still
bearish, with a downside target of $77.

Chart=


---

Invitrogen Corp. - IVGN - close: 70.47 change: -2.36

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of IVGN rose right to the site of the 5-
month descending trendline on Friday and turned back from that
resistance today, losing more than 3% on the day.  With daily
Stochastics tipping over from overbought territory, this looks
like the beginning of the next trip down to test strong support in
the $63-64 area.  Entries in the $70-72 area look optimal, while
more conservative players will want to enter on a break under
today's low.  Look for possible support near the 200-dma.

Chart=



===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

RIMM $60.99 - Inching to new all time highs above $62 this
morning, RIMM looked like it was finally going to break out again.
The broad market lost its momentum and the stock closed with only
a minor gain, but still looks like a solid breakout candidate.
Use a trigger over today's high and target next resistance in the
$66-67 area.

CELG $58.01 - Even with the recent rejection from resistance near
$60, CELG appears to be gaining strength for a major breakout.
Use a trigger over the April high at $60.60 and look for a longer-
term move towards next strong resistance at $70.

QCOM $68.67 - Rising to test strong resistance at $70 late last
week, QCOM is poised for another major upward move after the past
few months of consolidation.  With the PnF chart already bullish
with an upside target of $81, the risk to reward ratio is
certainly favorable.  Use a trigger at $70.25, just over last
week's intraday high and target a major move towards $80 ahead of
the July 21 earnings report.


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would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You mar
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you mar go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you mar simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you mar call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You mar also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


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