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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 06/30/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 06-30-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Two Down, One to Go
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Measured approach and 25 basis points


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     06-30-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10435.48 + 22.05 10471.24 10375.67 1.82 bln   2033/ 794
NASDAQ   2047.79 + 12.86  2055.65  2031.88 1.74 bln   1873/1197
S&P 100   553.87 +  1.36   556.05   550.88   Totals   3906/1991
S&P 500  1140.84 +  4.64  1144.22  1133.62
RUS 2000  591.52 +  3.69   591.53   587.73
DJ TRANS 3204.31 + 19.60  3204.80  3161.96
VIX        14.34 -  1.13    15.73    14.25
VXO        13.97 -  1.40    15.97    13.81
VXN        19.37 -  0.78    20.52    19.09
Total Volume 3,902M
Total UpVol  2,610M
Total DnVol  1,067M
52wk Highs     321
52wk Lows       81
TRIN          0.80
PUT/CALL      0.78
*******************************************************************

Two Down, One to Go
by James Brown

The second of this week's three big events has passed and for the
most part stocks remain stuck inside their trading range.  In
what has been described as the most telegraphed interest rate
move of all time the FOMC raised rates by 1/4 point, just as
expected.  A choppy session turned bullish in the afternoon as
money came in off the sidelines to do a little end of quarter
window dressing.  The Dow Industrials, the NASDAQ Composite and
the S&P 500 index all ended the month and the quarter in the
green.

Have investors left early for the fourth of July holiday or are
we merely stuck in the summer doldrums?  The markets have been
focused on this one week for weeks now and we're just not seeing
much conviction either way.  Monday's surprise transfer of power
in Iraq was great news but stocks failed to hold their gains.
Yesterday the markets didn't do much because investors were
focused on today's FOMC decision on interest rates.  Everyone
expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 1/4 point to 1.25%
so the focus was actually on the Fed's language in their
decision.  Bulls got what they wanted with the "measured pace"
comments still in there but traders continued to sit on the
sidelines.  There was an afternoon rally of what most were
calling some last minute window dressing but stocks began to fade
from their highs in the last 30 minutes.

No one really expected a lot of action in stocks ahead of the
2:15 PM ET interest rate decision but U.S. stocks should have
been somewhat primed for a bullish session.  The lack of
headline-grabbing news out of Iraq on a day that many expected
terrorists to strike despite the early transfer was a sigh of
relief.  Maybe it was the losses overseas that weighed on stocks
here.  European bourses didn't do so well with the French, German
and English exchanges all trading lower.  In contrast the Hang
Seng index in Hong Kong managed a 169-point gain to 12,285.  Its
Asian counterpart in Japan, the NIKKEI, closed relatively
unchanged.

The rise in crude oil didn't help matters.  Light sweet crude
soared 4% or $1.39 to $37.05 a barrel, significantly erasing a
good chunk of this week's losses.  Industry experts were
expecting U.S. crude inventories to rise.  The markets were
surprised to hear that the Energy Dept. reported a decline of
500K barrels while the API data reported a 4.2 million barrel
decline.  Combine this surprise with new comments from Saudi
Arabia about no new production hikes and it's no small wonder
that oil shot higher today.

Before the Fed decision was released today investors got to hear
the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index or PMI report.  Yesterday
Jim mentioned that we've seen a number of economic reports
indicating growth wasn't as strong as expected and thus the Fed
was likely to keep their rate hike and language market friendly.
The PMI proved to be just another report supporting this message.
Last month, in May, the Chicago PMI shot toward 16-year highs at
68%.  This month analysts were expecting a decline to 65.2% but
were surprised to hear the PMI drop to 56.4%, the slowest reading
in eight months.  Fortunately it's still a positive reading, with
anything over 50 indicating growth, and odds are good the Fed
probably had a heads up on what the data looked like before we
did.

The big event today was the decision on interest rates.  This is
a link to view the announcement but I've posted their comments
here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040630/default.htm

  The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its
  target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/4
  percent.

  The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance
  of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with
  robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing
  support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the
  intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to
  expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions have
  improved. Although incoming inflation data are somewhat
  elevated, a portion of the increase in recent months appears to
  have been due to transitory factors.

  The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the
  attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for
  the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying
  inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee
  believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace
  that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will
  respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill
  its obligation to maintain price stability.

The underlining and the bold lettering is mine not the Fed's.
Bulls were happy to see the "measured pace" comments, which
should soothe fears that the Fed is behind the curve.  More
critical traders point to the "nonetheless" comment as the Fed's
trump card to raise rates as fast as they need to should
inflation get out of hand.  Most analysts are interpreting the
"transitory factors" in the recent rise of inflation as higher
fuel costs, which are expected to abate somewhat.  All in all the
1/4-point hike is the first jump in rates since May 2000 and
pulls the Fed funds rate up off 40-year lows.

As mentioned earlier stocks did turn positive in the afternoon
after the announcement.  Market internals were also bullish.
Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners 20 to 8 on the NYSE and
almost 19 to 12 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was more than twice the
down volume numbers and overall volume came in at a relatively
healthy (for this time of year) 3.5 billion shares for both
exchanges.  Several sectors look poised for a breakout.  The NWX
networking index and the BTK biotech index both rallied to new
relative highs and closed just under their simple 100-dma's.  The
Dow Jones Transportation index turned in a bullish close back
over the 3200 level.

The Dow Industrials added 22 points to close at 10,435 but the
index began to fail at its intraday high of 10,471 in the
afternoon under recent resistance near 10,480.  The S&P 500 index
climbed almost 5 points to 1140 but it too remains stuck in its
trading range.  The NASDAQ looks a lot more bullish with a new
two-month high but it failed to hold the breakout over resistance
at 2050 as it sank in the last half hour.  Still we shouldn't
complain.  The Dow climbed 2.4% in June and the NASDAQ added more
than 3% for the month.  Year-to-date the NASDAQ is up 2.2%, the
S&P 500 index is up 2.6% while the Dow Industrials are down 0.2%.

Chart of the Dow Industrials:



Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:



Chart of the S&P 500 index:



Wednesday was not without its stock-specific stories.  Research
In Motion (RIMM) announced earnings last night after the closing
bell on Tuesday and beat estimates by 4 cents per share.  RIMM
also raised its earnings and revenue estimates for the next
quarter to 32-37 cents and $290-310 million, respectively,
compared to prior forecasts of 24-29 cents in earnings and $270
million in revenues.  Shares of RIMM soared more than 15% today
to close at $68.45, a new all-time high.

Meanwhile Lexar Media (LEXR) was moving the opposite direction.
The stock lost 16.6% to close at $6.68 after the company warned
last night that its Q2 results would be less than expected.  LEXR
now expects June quarter revenues in the $155-160 million range
compared to analysts' estimates at $186 million.

Dow-component and NDX-component Microsoft (MSFT) also made
headlines today.  A Washington appeals court voted 6-0 to uphold
a district court's decision on the Department of Justice's
antitrust settlement.  The settlement, reached two years ago by
MSFT and the Justice Dept., was appealed by the state of
Massachusetts and a couple of trade groups.  Today's decision
should end the six-year antitrust saga for MSFT in the U.S. but
the company is currently appealing a recent decision in Europe.
Shares of MSFT added 6 cents to close at $28.56.

Looking ahead to tomorrow I'd like to be bullish but the late-day
action this afternoon is discouraging.  To echo Jim's comments
yesterday, if the NASDAQ continues to plod higher then the rest
of the market should follow.  Fortunately, the Stock Trader's
Almanac by Hirsch has a few things to say about the month of
July.  First of all the first day of trading in July has been up
13 out of the last 15 years.  The beginning of July tends to see
a lot of retirement money inflows that should buoy stocks.  The
month of July is the best month in the third quarter.
Unfortunately it happens to be the first month in the NASDAQ's
worst four months of the year and election year July's don't seem
to alleviate this trend.

Another positive factor for stocks is the historical trend for
the S&P 500 to rise 8% in the first six months once the Fed
begins a tightening cycle.  This is due to the improving economic
conditions and rising corporate earnings.  Now how this figure
meshes with the market's typically tepid performance in the third
quarter is a question I can't answer.

Tomorrow does bring a few more economic reports.  Before the
opening bell will be the weekly initial jobless claims.  After
the open we'll get the construction spending numbers, the ISM
index and the auto and truck sales figures.  The ISM index is the
one to watch but it will probably be overshadowed by Wall
Street's focus on Friday's non-farm payrolls report.

Short-term I would continue to be cautious.  The volatility
indices all took a dive today with the VXO falling 9% back toward
its lows and the VIX and VXN are right on its heels.  Regular
readers know that interpreting the VIX is more art than science
but these levels still scream "danger, the market is near a
short-term top".


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Measured approach and 25 basis points

For the first time since May 16, 2000, the Federal Open Market
Committee raised its target for the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis
points to 1.25%, and reiterated recent Fed language that a
measured approach to raising rates will be the plan, as long as
inflation remains tame.

The major indices mimicked today's Fed action, and wording, with
measured gains of their own after today's 02:15 PM announcement.

U.S. Market Watch - 06/30/04



While Treasuries finished at their price highs of the session,
bond bulls did the bulk of their buying just after 10:00 AM EDT
when the regional Chicago PMI was released came in with a reading
of 56.4.  While expansionary above 50.0, June's reading was well
below economist's forecast of 64.0 and May's robust 68.0 reading.

Homebuilders as depicted by the Dow Jones Home Construction Index
($DJUSHB) 584.97 +2.04% benefited from today's lower Treasury
yield trade, where for sector bulls, today's declines in yield
couldn't have come at a better time.  Earlier this morning the
Mortgage Bankers Association reported its weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ended June 25, where the Market
Composite Index of mortgage loan applications, a measure of
mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancing, fell by
4.4% to 575 on a seasonally adjusted basis from 601.2 one week
earlier.  The MBA added that the average contract interest rate
for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged from the
prior week at 6.21%.

The weaker Chicago PMI report also triggered dollar weakness,
helping the AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) 188.94 +1.94% recoup
the bulk of Tuesday's losses, and reclaim a close above its
rounding lower 21-day SMA (188.80) and trending lower 50-day SMA
(188.94).

The Morgan Stanley Health Providers Index (RXH.X) 379.69 +2.10%
lead today's list of sector winners, closing above 3.5 months
resistance (379) after Smith Barney initiated coverage of index
components HCA $41.59 +1.51%, THC $13.41 +4.6% and CYH $26.77
+4.81% with "buy" ratings.  Respective price targets given by
Smith Barney were $48, $17.50 and $33.

While not fully encompassing the month of June, I've shown the
20-day percentage gain/loss column in my U.S. Market Watch.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 06/30/04 Close



The major indices were treading water for the bulk of the
session, but found a bullish response take hold after the FOMC's
decision.  The 209 new highs at the big board are the highest
since April 5th (252), with its A/D line finishing decidedly
positive.  NASDAQ-related indices finished with the bigger
percentage gains with A/D breadth finishing at its best levels of
the session.  The 137 new highs fell shy of Friday's 168, but new
lows were half those of Friday (84).

Pivot Analysis Matrix -



I quickly punched in the High/Low/Close to calculate new MONTHLY
Pivot levels.  A quick recap for June had the Dow Industrials
(INDU) finishing up 247 points (+2.4%), the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X)
gaining 20 points (+1.8%), the S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) gaining 8.7
points (+1.6%), the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) gaining fractions
(unchanged), the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) jumping 50 points
(+3.4%), its Tracking Stock (QQQ) gaining $1.19 (+3.3%), while
the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) slipped just 3.8 points (-0.8%).

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) saw its June high in the first
hour of trade on June 1, and did its best to get back to
unchanged in today's final hour of trade, coming just shy of its
WEEKLY R1, which is correlative near-term resistance with
tomorrow DAILY R1 (derived from today's H/L/C).

Dow Industrials Average (INDU) - Daily Intervals



If there were an index that showed a "measured approach" to
finding gains in today's session, it was the Dow.  Breadth
finished in favor of bulls with 15 gainers, 12 losers, and 3
unchanged.  For the most part, today's highs and lows were marked
by the WEEKLY Pivot and WEEKLY R1.

When looking at the Dow Industrials (INDU) and revisiting my
beginning of the year and reiteration that a resumption of the
2003 "first leg up" would turn into a second leg, I would have to
think the INDU needs to at least see a trade near-term at the now
overlapping 10,570 level, to at least get an "equal high" on a
technical basis.  My thinking is...  "since were at 10,440, why
not 10,570.

If so, then buyers would most certainly be looking to "load up"
on any type of pullback to the 10,135-10,200 level, where
suspiciously enough, the new MONTHLY S2 is calculated at 10,000,
where after we though a "hedge was trimmed" in late May, becomes
a longer-term looking point of major support.

Do begin to note, if not visualize what a trade at INDU 10,570,
followed by a potential pullback to 10,000 presents.  I see a
potential, and MASSIVE conventional reverse head/shoulder pattern
possibly developing.  Heck... the INDU could be developing a
reverse head/shoulder pattern as we type, where our downward
trend is an ascending neckline.

One note I begin to make tonight is the 21-day SMA, and how
recent trade, as well as trade found from early April to later
that same months is somewhat similar and can provide a test for
traders.  In April, the INDU moved UP through the 21-day SMA,
then briefly saw a violation of the rising 21-day SMA, to then
only rally back to 10,537, before being push back lower to the
eventual, and recent relative low of 9,900.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) - Daily Intervals



As I review today's trade, the one point of "weakness" that I
would have seen is that the BIX.X tended to "lag" today's move
higher relative to the SPX/OEX, it was if the banks, despite the
sharp early declines in Treasury yields, wanted to see if the
OEX/SPX would make the first move, which in my opinion they
(SPX/OEX) did make the first move.  If anything in our matrix
that showed some strength, which sets up further test for follow
through tomorrow, is that the SOX.X bid early, held a bid, and
lead higher, coming just shy of its (SOX.X) WEEKLY R1.

And here the SPX sits.  Maybe its just me, and MY feeling
exhausted at this point, but the OEX/SPX as well as the INDU feel
a bit exhausted, where as we've seen strength/weakness rotate
from one index to the other, its "got to be" some further
strength in the SOX.X, even just a little bit more above its
WEEKLY R1 and a run to WEEKLY R2, that gets that last "wave" up
for the SPX, to complete the near-term "trap" I discussed last
week, and that final "wave" Keene Little seemed to see.

In today's Market Monitor, I did read some commentary from Keene
that seemed to waiver from the SPX making a slightly higher
relative high, before the reversal.

I can't say that I would disagree with this slight adjustment at
this point, where not unlike the Fed's comments, even the SOX.X
took a more measured approach to gains.

I've run way past deadline and I have not yet placed the new
MONTHLY Pivot retracement on the other indices.  I will work into
the night to get the QQQ done for tomorrow morning's update.

Jeff Bailey


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 06-30-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: DHR, ETN, MMM, QCOM
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Defense, Auto and Internet


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

DHR - call
Adjust from $49.75 up to $50.00

---

ETN - call play -
Raise stop from $59.95 to $61.85

---

MMM - call play -
We have been TRIGGERED at $90.11

---

QCOM - call play -
Raise stop from $67.75 to $69.00


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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DROPPED PUTS
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None


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**********
Watch List
**********

Defense, Auto and Internet

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________

L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 66.80 change: +1.19

WHAT TO WATCH: LLL has surged from the $65.00 level to close at
new all-time highs.  The stock had been consolidating sideways
between $65-66 the last few days under May 2002 resistance at
$66.75.  Its MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal and its
P&F chart is bullish.  The only caution here would be the P&F
bullish target at $64 has already been met.  We think LLL looks
like a candidate for a run toward the $70 mark.

Chart=


---

Magna Intl - MGA - close: 85.17 change: +0.48

WHAT TO WATCH: About two weeks ago MGA broke through very tough
support at the $84.00 level.  Since then shares have been
consolidating gains in a sideways trading range.  While the stock
does look overbought and its MACD looks ready to produce a new
sell signal the price action is actually looking more bullish.
We would consider new bullish positions on a move through $85.50
with a stop at $83.99 and a target of $90.00 or more.  Its P&F
chart is bullish and points to a $105 price target.

Chart=


---

Sina Corp - SINA - close: 32.99 change: -2.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Ouch! SINA is down 6.5% on three times the average
volume.  Today's drop was fueled by rumors that SINA was under
investigation for some of its sales practices.  Earlier in the
week SINA was rumored to be a takeover target by YHOO.  While
these rumors are being shot down the technical breakout is still
very bearish.  Not only has SINA broken support at $35.00 and its
40 and 50-dma's but it's also a bear-flag breakout with a target
price of $30.00.  We suspect SINA may be able to trade even
lower, say the $27.50 region.  Look for earnings on or around
July 21st.

Chart=


---

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 54.41 change: +0.70

WHAT TO WATCH: The rally in AMZN continues.  Three days ago AMZN
broke through resistance at $52.00 and the descending trendline
of resistance from last October.  Now AMZN is trading just under
round-number and historical resistance at $55.00.  The P&F chart
is bullish and points to a $75.00 price target.  We feel that
bulls ought to consider/keep an eye on AMZN for a bullish move
(maybe to $60) as fellow Internet stock YHOO makes a run into
earnings on July 7th.  YHOO is expected to beat estimates and the
stock is already on its own pre-earnings ramp up.  If YHOO
delivers then traders may expected AMZN to deliver as well and
push it higher in a pre-earnings run.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

LLTC: $39.47 +0.46 - Look for a breakout over its 200-dma and the
$40.00 mark.  Such a move should lead to a run toward $44.00.

ATH: $89.56 +2.14 - The rally back above its 40, 50 and 100-dma's
looks positive and its MACD is a day or two away from producing a
new buy signal.  There is resistance at $90.00 and 92.50 but
bulls might consider targeting a move to $95.

ZBRA: $87.00 +0.50 - Wow! It was only a few days ago we were
noting the rebound in ZBRA from the bottom of its channel back
above the $80 level.  Now the stock is at the top of its channel
and shooting for $90.00.  The stock looks overbought.  We suggest
waiting for a two or three-day dip before considering bullish
positions.

LXK: $96.53 +0.84 - Yesterday LXK was on the watch list for a
breakout over $96.00.  Now we got it!

IBM: $88.15 -0.14 - IBM is seriously under performing its peers
and tech stocks in general.  Its MACD is in a new sell signal.


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would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

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start until your free trial is over.

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card server or you may simply send an email to

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with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

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**********

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