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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 07/21/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 07-21-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Key Downside Reversal
Index Trader Wrap: Lights went out at 11:00
Watch List:

Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     07-21-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10046.13 -102.94 10237.12 10045.61 2.06 bln    625/2208
NASDAQ   1847.37 - 42.70  1933.03  1847.37 2.08 bln    728/2280
S&P 100   533.02 -  6.63   544.04   533.02   Totals   1353/4488
S&P 500  1093.88 - 14.79  1116.27  1093.88
RUS 2000  548.57 - 15.62   566.03   548.57
DJ TRANS 3087.13 - 67.62  3171.66  3087.00
VIX        16.41 +  2.24    16.46    13.91
VXO        16.14 +  1.56    16.14    14.15
VXN        22.15 +  1.24    22.17    19.79
Total Volume 4,542M
Total UpVol    751M
Total DnVol  3,755M
52wk Highs     169
52wk Lows      233
TRIN          1.56
PUT/CALL      0.76
*******************************************************************

Key Downside Reversal
Jonathan Levinson

The MSFT rally carried the markets to a strong open that failed
immediately for the Nasdaq while carrying the Dow and SPX until
11AM before the decline kicked in.  What appeared destined to be
a technical correction based on overbought intraday oscillators
turned into a relentless decline that completely reversed
yesterday's gains for the Nasdaq, SPX and the Dow, breaking the
previous day's lows in all 3 cases.

MSFT held most of its gains, but the tech sector was a mess in
general.  Investors had long expected MSFT to do something with
its hoard of cash once the threat of its multiple lawsuits had
lifted.  Many expected the company to purchase other tech
companies, such as SAP, SEBL, ORCL.  By repurchasing its own
stock and issuing a dividend, the company's message might have
been interpreted as a negative judgment on its perception of
growth prospects for the sector going forward.  In any event,
MSFT fared far better than the broader markets, with the Nasdaq
taking a precipitous plunge of 2.23% and printing a key downside
reversal, having broken yesterday's high at the open and closing
below its low at the close.  The Nasdaq closed lower by 42 points
at 1874, while the Dow lost 103 points to close at 10046.

Weekly Dow Chart


The Dow is breaking below the rising weekly support line the
retest of Monday's low and undoing what had been a downside doji
spike until this afternoon.  The weekly cycle picture has managed
to remain as ambiguous as it's been for the past three weeks,
with the price decline continuing but at a lackluster pace, such
that the 10-week stochastic looks bullish while the Macd is
bearish.  As I've had occasion to discuss with respect to this
and other charts over the course of the past month, we often see
gap moves to resolve trendline tests, and with this week's candle
currently rejecting moves both above and below it, a break in
either direction is imminent.  As has been occurring with
increasing regularity lately, the oscillators are in an ambiguous
state waiting for price to resolve the dilemma.  A weekly close
below Dow 10000 or above 10250 will determine direction to the
downside or upside, respectively, while a break above 10300 would
suggest a bull flag and a retest of the year high at 10795 for
starters.  We've seen the 9800-10200 level as a key confluence
for several years, and a break below the rising trendline would
suggest a test of that lower level.


Daily Dow Chart


The upper doji shadow which printed as the day's gains were
authoritatively wiped out with a close at the day lows is a very
bearish formation, a gravestone doji.  Note that the highs
actually broke all the previous highs to last Thursday, while the
low exceed the week's low and set a new low for the daily cycle
downphase.  The oscillators continue to suggest a bottom forming,
and while the daily candle portends more damage to come tomorrow,
the oscillators suggest the formation of a cycle trough underway.
With the intraday oscillators oversold as of the session close, a
bounce is to be expected- but bulls will want to see the rising
trendline at 10080 recovered on the way to a test of 10145.


Weekly Nasdaq Chart


The weekly chart of the Nasdaq is clearer than that of the Dow,
and looks more bearish on a cycle basis.  The bull flag is
evident here as on the Dow, but it's looking long in the tooth
and tired.  Today's reversal lower off the bottom of the rising
weekly support line is a bearish failure, marking the second week
below the line.  There still remain tomorrow's and Friday's
sessions to reverse today's decline, and this week's candle is
still up for grabs.  But if it closes at or below current levels,
we'll have a weekly gravestone doji and an imminent rollover in
the 10-week stochastic.  Resistance is in the 1950 area, with
Bollinger support at 1865, below which there's confluence at 1850
and flag support at the 1760 Fibonacci level.


Daily Nasdaq Chart


The daily Nasdaq candle didn't get the benefit of an upper shadow
because the decline commenced immediately at the gap-up opening
levels and continued until the close at the day lows.  The
oscillators on the daily look similar to that of the Dow, but
interestingly, the low of the week was not broken.  1865 is the
next support in this timeframe, and as noted in the Market
Monitor, a break below it would put the daily cycle oscillators
in position for a trending move in oversold territory.  That's
the lower probability outcome, and if it occurs, it will be
because the longer weekly cycle is dominant, overwhelming the
daily cycle which is currently in a trough and due to begin its
upphase.


Weekly TNX Chart


Bonds slid today, with the TNX rising 3.9 bps to close at 4.487%
after trading both sides of the 4.5% resistance line.  The daily
cycle oscillators (not shown) printed the first buy signals from
oversold territory, just starting an upphase that portends more
weakness for bonds for the coming sessions.  Resistance above
4.5% is at 4.64%, followed by 4.75% and 4.8%.  This daily cycle
upphase runs counter to the weekly cycle downphase on the chart
above, projecting to a retest of support at the 4.02% level.
Often, juxtaposition of two cycles results in uncertain sideways
chop, and we've been seeing that for the past two weeks.  With
any luck, we'll see a range break by the end of the month to
resolve the uncertainty in one direction or the other.  Downside
support is at 4.4% and 4.32% for the TNX.

There were no significant economic data released today, with the
market news dominated by Fed releases and earnings reports.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reporting that its Market Index
declined 4% to  617.9 for the week ending July 19.  The Purchase
Index, which measures requests for loans with which to make home
purchase, declined 6.1% to 440.3 while the Refinancing Index was
lower by 0.7% to 1,651.1.  Interest rates were mostly flat to
slightly lower during that period.

The American Petroleum Institute that crude oil inventories for
the week ending July 16 rose 38,000 barrels to 300.1M, while the
Energy Department reported a drop of 3.6M barrels. The two
organizations frequently disagree as to the weekly changes.
According to the API, gasoline stocks rose by 3.9M barrels (the
Energy Department reported a 2.5M barrel increase) to 212.6M
while distillate stocks declined 59,000 (rose by 1.7M barrels
according to the government) to 116.6M barrels.  For the day,
crude oil futures closed higher by 14 cents at 40.58

Philly Fed President Santomero was out this morning ahead of
Greenspan's testimony before Congress, noting that while recent
economic data has been disappointing, it should be interpreted in
the context of an upward trend of a strengthening economy.  He
expects consumer spending to expand while inflation remains at
acceptable levels.  He expects the Fed funds rate to rise at a
"measured pace", but that such pace would ultimately depend on
the prevailing data.

Chairman Greenspan addressed the House Financial Services
Committee with the same text presented yesterday to the Senate
Banking Committee, reiterating the message that the Fed views
current conditions as being reflective of a healthy expanding
economy.  The economy should no longer require the strong
accommodation afforded by the pegging of overnight rates near
current low levels, and that rate hikes would take place at a
measured pace.  He expects that rising income from increased
employment will bolster consumer spending.  He expects inflation
to remain tame, but indicated that more aggressive increases to
the overnight rate would be appropriate if inflation were to
flare up.  He also indicated that from now on, the Fed would base
its outlook for inflation on the Core Personal Consumption
Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (which strips out food and oil
prices) rather than the overall PCE as it had formerly done.

Chairman Greenspan, in response to a question about asset
bubbles, told the Committee that he felt that the Fed had
successfully minimized the "great distortions" that can result
from its measures, and mentioned the current unwinding of the
carry trade occurring in response to the reduction in Fed
stimulus this year.

In an afternoon speech to the Dallas Rotary Club, Dallas Fed
chief McTeer repeated the view that the current soft patch in the
economic data is just that.  He acknowledged, however, that while
energy prices are volatile and, in his view, temporary, he went
on to state that "over time, people use gasoline and electricity,
and you can't ignore it forever... At some point you have to say
the headline number is the relevant one.  [...]The little upward
movement in inflation we've had over the last two or three months
means that a 1% fed-funds rate is lower in real terms than it
was. And so, even though we raised the target rate a quarter
point, it's probably lower in real terms than it was before we
did that, because of inflation."  He reiterated the opinion that
job growth would accelerate.

Overall, the currency markets were impressed with the Fed's
releases for the day, with the US Dollar Index rising to the 89
level, a 2-week high, and gold, euros and silver all declining to
new lows for the week.

There was a plethora of earnings reported throughout the session
and covered in the email updates and Market Monitor postings.
Some highlights include UTX, which reported  Q2 net income of
$1.66 per share, up from $1.26 and exceeding expectations of
$1.58 per share.  UTX closed higher by 2.32% at 92.67.

MRK announced Q2 earnings of 79 cents per share, unchanged from
last year and meeting analyst estimates.  Total earnings were
1.78B.  Global sales were higher by 9% to 6B, exceeding estimates
for 5.9B. PFE beat by a penny, announcing Q2 EPS at $0.47 per
share.  MRK closed lower by .51% at 44.60.

AMR reported Q2 earnings of 3 cents a share or $6M, compared with
a loss of 47 cents in Q2 2003. The gains were mostly based on
government grants, with a net loss of 15 cents per share
stripping out one-time special items.  This was 5 cents worse
than estimates of a 10 per share loss.  The stock got hit for a
5.98% loss to close at 8.81.  NWAC lost $182M or $2.11 per share
compared with a profit of $2.45 in Q2 2003.  Fuel costs were a
factor cited in both reports.  Losses were 90 cents excluding
one-time charges, beating expectations of a 1.21 per share loss.
NWAC lost 5.15% to close at 8.48, and the XAL index fell 4.25% to
close at 4.687.

IMCL got smoked for 19.01% as of this writing on what the media
attributed to disappointment over sales of the firm's Erbitux
cancer treatment.  Q2 revenue was $71.5M, up from $17.9 million
in Q2 2003 but down from $109.6M in Q1 2004, which had received a
boost from one-time payments. Revenue from sales of Erbitux came
in 4M below expectations of 75M, and the Company announced that
its application for Erbitux would be filed in 2005 rather than in
the second half of 2004 as previously expected.  Friedman,
Billings, Ramsey downgraded the company to "neutral" from "buy".

GM's profit rose 49% in Q2 on gains attributed to its financial
services division as its global and North American market share
declined.  Earnings were $2.36 per share or $1.34B, beating
estimates of $2.24 per share and up from Q2 2003's $1.58 per
share or $901M.  The stock fell .57% to close at 43.35.

After the bell, EBAY reported earnings of 28 cents per share or
$190M, up from 91.8M or 14 cents per share in Q2 2003, beating
expectations of 27 cents.  Sales increased over the previous
quarter and the company raised its earnings target for the year
to $1.17 per share, which was below analysts' expectations of
$1.19.  The stock was trading lower by 10.61% at 70.42 as of this
writing.

MXO met expectations with a 26.1M net loss for the quarter, 11
cents per share.  Excluding one-time items,  the company missed
lowered estimates by a penny and came in light on revenue.  MXO
was down 4.5% at 5.52 after hours.

QCOM beat estimates by 4 cents with earnings of 57 cents per
share or $483M, and issued guidance of $2.15-$2.18 per share,
above estimates of $2.06.  QCOM was lower by 3.14% at 67.35 as of
this writing.  SEBL met reduced expectations of 2 cents per share
after warning earlier in July, with revenue of $301.1 against
expectations of $303M.  The stock was down 3.35% at 7.78 as of
this writing.  ATVI got smoked after beating expectations of 5
cents per share on $189M in revenue with earnings of 8 cents per
share on $211.3M revenue- the stock was lower by 8.86% at 14.40.

There's a trader's clichi about a rising tide buoying all ships
or something to that effect, and the general reaction to earnings
news today was to sell.  Be it the softness of the economic data
alluded to by the various Fed chiefs today, or Greenspan's and
McTeer's acknowledgment of the unsustainability of an overnight
rate at current low levels and the threat that rising inflation
would force the Fed's hand- whatever the reason, the markets were
in a selling mood, with bonds, stocks, precious metals and
foreign currencies going over the side.  This rising
dollar/falling-everything-else trade is the reverse of the trend
that gave us the stellar 2003 rally.

The daily cycle trough is troublesome here, because it ups the
ante for traders.  On the one hand, it is trying to turn up from
a likely bottom.  If it does, we have little reason to doubt a
multiweek bounce.  If it does not, however, the selling could be
violent and would suggest more serious bearishness going out to
the longer timeframes.  Any trader who's been close to the
markets for the past three years has learned not to be religious
about a direction, and I'm ready to accept either one from here.
If today's lows don't produce the bounce required by the intraday
cycles, then a retest of the year lows could be mere hours away.


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*****************
INDEX TRADER WRAP
*****************

Lights went out at 11:00

The major indices as well as all equity-based sectors finished at
their lows of the session, where at approximately 11:00, buyers
pulled the plug on stocks and my real-time charts.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,093.88 -1.33 saw a "round trip" with
its first test of WEEKLY R1 finishing with a first test of WEEKLY
S1.

While software giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) $28.96 +2.25% and
its revealed cash to shareholder distribution plan was a main
topic on Wall Street, sellers seemed more than eager to greet the
Semiconductors (SOX.X) 407.81 -3.69% with a pile of stock as it
attempted to reclaim its MONTHLY S2.

Pivot Analysis Matrix - 07/21/04 Close



Last thing I remember for a live intra-day view was the S&P 100
Index (OEX.X) 533.02 -1.22% sounding alert at its WEEKLY R1.  I
said to myself.... "Can it get back through that 'doji' at 545
from the June 1 open and close?"

That's when the "lights went out," and all heck broke loose to
the downside.

Dow Industrials (INDU) Chart - Daily Intervals



Last night, I was in a very bad mood, it was late, and I couldn't
sleep.  So, I started thumbing through some of the Dow Components
and noted a number of components trade "just above and below"
their 200-day SMA's.

Aha! I thought.  I'll set some upside and downside alerts on my
trusty QCharts trading software, and should any Dow components
trade these longer-term SMAs, I'll get a very unbiased, and true
depiction of the markets strength/weakness at this longer-term
SMA.

Made sense with the INDU below its 200-day SMA.

The first upside alert I got at a 200-day SMA was American
Express (NYSE:AXP) $48.35 -1.56% as it traded back higher to its
200-day SMA ($49.49).  Aha!  A financial I thought.  They're
coming back.  By the close, the merchant at the counter said...
"sorry sir, your card has been rejected."

Minutes later, Dupont (DD) $42.15 -1.4% traded its 200-day SMA to
the upside, but failed miserably.  DD's bar chart and moving
averages look almost IDENTICAL to the INDU.

At 12:00, I "fixed" my QCharts software, and haven't been able to
get a quote since.

So.... I went back to my trusty paper/pencil notes of other Dow
Component stocks and their trade relative to their longer-term
200-day SMAs.

I see Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) $76.95 -1.43% popped higher at the
open, but closed back BELOW its 200-day SMA ($77.49).

A bullish "ouch!" for Coca Cola (NYSE:KO) $49.20 -1.75%, which
started the session out above its 200-day SMA ($49.32).

3M (NYSE:MMM) $83.58 -1.67% still above its 200-day SMA $81.82.

United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) $92.67 +2.31% traded higher above
its 200-day SMA ($88.71), where Tuesday's close was $90.57.

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) $31.15 -3.11%, which started out below its 200-
day SMA ($33.39) fell further below today.

Disney (NYSE:DIS) $23.64 -1.08% still below its 200-day SMA
($24.06).

JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) $36.82 +1.15% came close to testing its 200-
day SMA ($37.88) with a session high of $37.80, but not unlike
the Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 117.57 -0.81% faded to the close.

Merck (NYSE:MRK) $44.59 -0.53% popped, then dropped, never
getting an upside test of its 200-day SMA ($46.29).

Verizon's (NYSE:VZ) $34.13 -1.72% "can you hear me now" becomes
less audible as the stock closed at its lowest level of 2004,
with the 200-day SMA ($35.57) straight-lining across the chart.

So.... at 10:21, I counted 2 up (AXP and DD) and zero down, but
by the close, 2 are still down (AXP and DD) and we can add KO and
CAT to the list of INDU components signaling some longer-term
weakness below the 200-day SMAs.

We'll continue to follow, but buyers have a lot of work to do.

Jeff Bailey


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**********
Watch List
**********

Drugs, Retail, and more!

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________


Diagnostic Products - DP - close: 39.40 change: -1.29

WHAT TO WATCH: The weakness continues in shares of DP.  Today's
market wide sell-off helped DP produce a bearish engulfing
candlestick leading to a new nine-month low.  The P&F chart,
while testing support, also looks bearish and points to a $32
target.  If it weren't for DP's earnings report due out this
Friday we'd consider new bearish positions.

Chart=


---

Aventis - AVE - close: 79.85 change: +0.16

WHAT TO WATCH: We're impressed with the relative strength in
German-drugmaker Aventis.  The stock trades on the NYSE as an ADS
so it tends to gap open every morning to adjust to moves on the
underlying stock in Germany.  Right now AVE is consolidating
under resistance in the $80-81 range.  Bulls can keep an eye on
it for the breakout over $80.50-81.00.  A move over $81 would
produce a new P&F buy signal.  Currently its P&F chart points to
a $97 target.

Chart=


---

Fortune Brands - FO - close: 70.10 change: -1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: We mentioned FO in the MarketMonitor this
afternoon.  The stock has been slipping toward support at the
$70.00 level and bounced there on Monday.  Unfortunately that
bounce has faded and FO is not only testing support at $70 but
now under its simple 200-dma.  We would consider bearish plays
with a target near $65 but FO's earnings are due out on Friday
and we don't want to hold over the event.

Chart=


---

Deere Co - DE - close: 63.57 change: -1.41

WHAT TO WATCH: Uh-oh!  It's not looking good for shares of DE.
After a week or so of consolidating along its 200-dma DE has
broken down through the $65 level and its long-term moving
average.  Bulls will point out that the stock does have support
near $62.50 and again at $60.00.  However, tomorrow will bring
earnings from rival CAT.  If CAT disappoints investors we could
see a sympathy move in DE.  DE's earnings are expected in mid-
August.

Chart=


-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

AZO $76.55 -0.50 - This might be an entry point for new bearish
positions in AZO.

INSP $28.00 -2.03 - The failed rally near $30 looks like a new
entry point for bearish positions but INSP is expected to report
earnings next Wednesday, which doesn't give us much time.

LM $77.58 -2.33 - LM produced a decent oversold bounce from its
post-earnings drop off. Yet now that bounce is failing at the $80
mark.  Trades might want to consider bearish positions.  Don't
forget the split.


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The Option Investor Newsletter                Wednesday 07-21-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: None
Dropped Calls: SUN
Dropped Puts: None



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Auto-Trade ket Monitor Signals
Personal Service and Education


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http://www.OneStopOption.com

**************************************************************


*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

None


*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

Sunoco - SUN - close: 66.17 change: -2.57 stop: 67.95

There doesn't appear to be any stock-specific excuse for the 3.7
percent drop in SUN.  It would appear to be traders selling their
winners in the market wide sell-off today.  Fortunately, we
raised our stop loss yesterday to $67.95 providing us a chance to
exit with at least some of the move.  Look for SUN to report
earnings tomorrow morning.

Picked on July 08 at $ 66.67
Change since picked:  - 0.50
Earnings Date       07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    973 thousand
Chart =



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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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Brokerage Group, addressing the demand for personalized,
experienced service for both securities* and futures trading
within the same firm. Licensed Option Principals Andrew Aronson
and Alan Knuckman specialize in live assistance of stock*,
option* and futures traders. The combination of the proven Man
Financial global presence and the convenience of one group for
all trading needs provide customers with the tools needed for
success.

Live Broker and Online Trading Available     888-281-9569

http://www.OneStopOption.com

**************************************************************


*******************
FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you may go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you may simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


**********
DISCLAIMER
**********

Please read our disclaimer at:
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DISCLAIMER

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