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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 07/26/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 07-26-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section One:

Wrap: Doji Day
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Industrials finish flat, while small caps test May lows
Traders Corner: Average True Range


Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
     07-26-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9961.92 -  0.30 10003.80  9913.92 1.67 bln    893/1913
NASDAQ   1839.02 - 10.07  1860.12  1829306 1.61 bln    968/2059
S&P 100   530.09 -  0.29   532.33   527.17   Totals   1861/3972
S&P 500  1084.07 -  2.13  1089.82  1078.78
RUS 2000  533.49 -  5.74   542.29   531.40
DJ TRANS 3048.60 +  5.16  3072.63  3036.46
VIX        17.30 +  0.80    17.93    16.98
VXO        17.00 +  0.37    17.85    16.88
VXN        25.29 +  1.38    25.98    24.57
Total Volume 3,637M
Total UpVol    933M
Total DnVol  2,658M
52wk Highs      43
52wk Lows      421
TRIN          1.31
PUT/CALL      0.81
*******************************************************************

Doji Day
Jonathan Levinson

QQQ and Nasdaq broke below their previous year-to-date lows this
morning, the first of the major indices to do so.  The OEX, Dow,
and SPX all came close to doing so but managed to hold above the
previous lows.  Much of the losses were corrected in the final
hour of trading.

Volatility rose, with the QQV up 7.61% to 23.62 and the VXO
adding 2.22% to 17.  While these levels represent significant
increases from the recent lows, they continue to reflect relative
complacency on a longer-term basis.

Several investment houses were out with opinions on where the
stock indices are likely to go next.  Prudential's Ed Yardeni
lowered his year-end 2004 target for the SPX from 1300 to 1190
 and his 2005 target from 1450 to 1300 citing investor
disappointment regarding high oil prices and uncertainty
surrounding the presidential election.  Prudential also cut its
technology weighting to underweight, with strategist Edward Keon
advising clients that he sees at best single-digit growth for
2005, compared with the previously expected rates of 11% overall
and 18% for the tech sector.

Merrill's Richard McCabe was out early in the morning, stating
that his short term momentum indicators were "extremely oversold"
and that a "new rally phase" could develop in the short-term. He
went on to note, however, that sentiment was not sufficiently
negative to lead him to expect a resumption of the post-2002
rally.   CSFB's Garthwaite disagreed, advising clients that
valuations remain above their long-term averages, and that a
correction to those averages would require another 3% decline.
However, he added that a throwunder of just one standard
deviation could result in an additional 18% decline for equities.
He went to say that "Implied volatility remains low, the CSFB
chartists' view continues to be negative, and the ratio of
gainers to losers remains well above levels that have been
associated with previous turning points in the markets."


Weekly Dow Chart


Last week's candle broke the rising weekly support line on a
closing basis for the first time since the 2003 bottom, with
Friday finishing at the week's low.  The move resolved both the
price and oscillator ambiguity to the downside, printing a fresh
sell signal on the 10-week stochastic and reversing the bullish
kiss on the Macd.  While the potential bull wedge remains intact,
with the parallel pattern of lower highs and lower lows above
9800, the action was decidedly bearish, particularly with respect
to the shorter timeframes, which failed to bounce on schedule and
which trended lower as the price decline continued.


Daily Dow Chart


The Dow daily chart left off with a doji star for the day, with
moves to both the high and low rejected and price settling
unchanged, lower by 0.3 at 9961.92.  The 10-day stochastic buy
signal that had me expecting a bounce last week above 10K aborted
its fledgling upphase and is now trending, still showing a very
slight bullish divergence but bumping along the bottom of its
range as it did in March and in May.  The Macd has not confirmed
with any buy signals, showing only a slight histogram divergence
as highlighted in the chart.  The spike low in May to 9840 is
support below the levels tested today at the previous May lows of
9900.  While the oscillator setup continues to suggest bullish
pressure building, the bottom of the current descending channel
is well below 9720.  We recall 9800-10200 from years past,
however, and despite the downside whipsaw, the daily cycle
oscillators remain at levels that have more risk for bulls than
for bears.  A break back above 10020 would have the daily cycle
back on buy signals.  However, as we've seen since last week,
picking bottoms in this market is very risky business.


Weekly Nasdaq Chart


The Nasdaq had been weaker through the bulk of the decline, and
last week did not disappoint.  An initial retest of the rising
weekly trendline (which had broken the previous week) was
repelled with authority, leaving a long doji shadow atop what
proved to be a bearish reverse hammer or gravestone doji.  As
with the Dow, the bull flag is still intact. However, the
oscillators have also resolved their uncertainty to the downside,
with sell signals printed from lower price and oscillator highs.
Resistance is in the 1930 area, while flag support and price
confluence now line up at the 1760 Fibonacci level.


Daily Nasdaq Chart


The Nasdaq's 10 point decline was sufficient to maintain the steep
downtrend on the daily chart, with the close at 1839 leaving the
upturning 10-day stochastic rolling over for a trending move within
oversold territory.  Bollinger and regression channel support are down
to 1820 here, and while the risk to bears is obviously increasingly
with each decline, previous support between 1880 and 1900 is now
resistance.  As even Merrill's McCabe noted, the increases in
volatility, while respectable, are not at absolute levels from which a
bounce appears readily obvious.  While the weekly cycle pointed south
and the daily unable to turn from previous support at the y-t-d lows,
the onus is on bulls to regain former support before imputing too much
significance to an oversold daily chart.


Weekly TNX Chart


Bonds declined today from the open, falling further with the
release of the record existing home sales data (see below), with
the ten year note yield (TNX) closing higher by 4.3 bps at
4.475%.   Resistance above is at 4.48%, followed by 4.5%, 4.64,
4.75% and 4.8%.  This daily cycle upphase is opposed to the
weekly cycle downphase on the chart above, projecting to a retest
of support at the 4.02% level and possibly to what appears as
daily bullish descending wedge support as low as 4.32%.  A break
above 4.5% would have a bullish implied target of 4.8%, with
stronger resistance at 4.5%.

At 10AM, Existing Home Sales for June were released by the
National Association of Realtors, with the number of existing
homes sold rising 2.1% from a revised 6.81M level to a record
6.95M units.  This represents a 17.4% increase over last year.
The NAR also announced that the median sales price reached a
record $191,800 in June, a 9.6% increase.

K announced earnings of 57 cents per share, up from 50 cents in
the same fiscal quarter of 2003 but missing estimates of 54
cents.  The company reaffirmed its 2004 outlook of $2.07-$2.11
per share, below the consensus estimates of $2.14 per share.  K
finished higher by 1.29% at 40.75.  WMT announced that July sales
were headed for a 2-4% increasing, matching prior forecasts
buoyed by warm weather summer buying and back-to-school products,
but closed for the day lower by .96% at 52.65.

TSN beat expectations of 36 cents, coming in at 45 cents per
share but announced that 2004 results will miss previous
estimates of $1.41 per share, guiding to between $1.20 and $1.30
per share.  The stock got smoked for a 7.37% loss, closing at
18.48.

Google, which has requested to trade under the symbol "GOOG",
seeks to price its IPO at $108-$135 per share for 24.64M shares.
The company expects to raise $3.3B to $3.8B, above the 2.7B that
marked the highest estimates in its previous filings.  ASKJ was
higher on the morning announcement of the extension of its
advertising pact with Google through 2007.

AXP reported Q2 earnings 68 cents a share, beating expectations
by a penny and up 9 cents from Q2 2003's results.  Revenues roses
14% to $7.26B, exceeding expectations for $6.91 billion, and the
stock closed higher by 1.64% at 48.90.

After the bell, GNSS reported earnings excluding charges of 5
cents per share, beating estimates by a penny.  The stock was
lower by 1.13% for the day at 9.60, sliding lower to 9.45 after
the announcement.  Homebuilder CTX announced a 21% y-o-y-
increase in net earnings to $1.35 per share, with sales
increasing 33% since last year.  The company upped its fiscal '05
earnings target to $6.75-$7.25 share, compared with expectations
for $6.78 per share.

The future is anything but clear from here.  On the one hand, the
daily charts tell us to expect a bounce, but the weekly charts
are reasserting their ongoing downtrend and suggest a possible
move to the lower bull flag supports or below.  The rally off the
2003 lows generated a slew of extreme readings, including breadth
and the TRINQ, the volatility indices, and, among others, on the
oscillators.  It is easily imaginable that the intraday and daily
oscillators will continue to trend as the longer cycles continue
to dominate to the downside.  While the daily candles printed
lower doji shadows, the intraday action was not the stuff of
classic doji bottoms- the crowd was not gleefully selling through
support and the reversal was not sudden, swift or on much higher
volume.  I'm not trying to talk down the bullish case, but am
rather trying to provide a counterpoint to it.  I personally
expect to see the daily cycle generate buy signals at or close to
current levels.  However, that gut feeling is tempered by the
foregoing arguments.  The indices do not have to continue today's
3PM bounce, and patient bulls should continue to so be, at least
until at least one or two levels of prior support have been
regained.  Until it reverses, the daily trend remains down.


************
FUTURES WRAP
************

Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp


********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************

Industrials finish flat, while small caps test May lows

Gains in Verizon (NYSE:VZ) $36.50 +3.34%, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
$28.66 +2.24% and SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC) $24.75 +2.18%
offset losses in Coca Cola (NYSE:KO) $44.30 -1.92%, Pfizer
(NYSE:PFE) $31.74 -1.73% and 3M (NYSE:MMM) $81.63 -1.19% where
the Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,961.92 finished unchanged, but small
caps as depicted by the Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 533.49 -1.06%
threaten their May 17th relative lows of 530.68 with the bulk of
sectors closing lower as the Democratic National Convention gets
underway in Boston.

Market Snapshot / Internals - 07/26/04 Close




Stocks attempted a morning bounce, but the hangover from last
week's declines had buyers of many 4 and 5-lettered NASDAQ-listed
stocks pulling the covers over their heads.  Not helping
continued weakness among technology was Bears Stearns saying its
research showed chip foundries spending in Q4 would increase just
5% compared to earlier forecasted 10% levels.

Pivot Analysis Matrix -



BIG weekly ranges exist this week for the major indices, and at
most, I think WEEKLY S1 to WEEKLY R1 defines a range for the
MAJOR indices.

The S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.10 +0.18% scratched out a
fractional 0.65 point gain today, while the Securities
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 116.46 -0.57% edged down 0.67 points,
and tries to stabilize above its recent July 19 relative low of
112.97.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) - Daily Internals



A "dead cat bounce" in my opinion would be SPX back toward 1,100,
while a more bullish move would present itself above WEEKLY R1
(1,107) where past declines to 1,087 (weekly 61.8% retracement)
have seen bullish gains build to 1,141 on closes back above 1,107
two separate times.

It may appear impossible to imagine SPX at 1,140 any time soon,
and I would have to think to get there, then NH/NL breadth at
BOTH the NYSE and NASDAQ would have to see bullish crossovers of
their 5-day's above 10-day NH/NL average ratios.

Jeff Bailey


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TRADERS CORNER
**************

Average True Range
Jane Fox

In his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems(1978), J.
Welles Wilder introduced the Average True Range (ATR) indicator.
An indicator that does not provide an indication of price
direction or duration, simply the degree of price movement or
volatility.

Wilder designed ATR for commodities when commodities were
frequently more volatile than stocks and, in addition, often had
up or down gaps and limit moves. A limit move happens when a
commodity opens up or down its maximum allowed move and does not
trade again until the next session resulting in the bar or
candlestick been a small dash. Wilder sought to account for gaps,
limit moves and small high/low ranges in his calculations. A
volatility formula based on only the high/low range does not
capture the volatility created by the gap or limit move so he
devised the True Range (TR) and defined it as the greatest of the
following:

- The current high less the current low.
- The absolute value of: current high less the previous close.
- The absolute value of: current low less the previous close.

If the current high/low range is large, chances are it will be
used as the TR. If the current high/low range is small, it is
likely that one of the other two methods would be used to
calculate the TR. The last two possibilities usually arise when
the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a
potential gap down and/or limit move) or the previous close is
lower than the current low (signaling a potential gap up and/or
limit move). To insure positive numbers, absolute values were
applied to the differences.

I chose a chart of NOK for my example because it is an ADR
(American Depositary Receipt) and very susceptible to gaps. This
chart shows many potential situations when the TR would not be
based on the current high/low range because of gaps up and down.




On July 2nd NOK closed at 14.55. July 6th was a gap down with a
high of 14.30 and low of 14.08. The TR range for this day is the
greatest value absolute value between:

1. Current high minus current low: 14.30 - 14.08 = 0.22
2. The absolute value of the current high less the previous close:
14.30 - 14.55 = 0.22
3. The absolute value of the current low less the previous close:
14.08 - 14.55 = -0.47

So the True Range is 0.47.

On July 8th NOK closed at 14.11. July 9th was a gap up with a
high of 14.70 and low of 14.42. The TR range for this day is the
greatest value absolute value between:

1. Current high minus current low: 14.70 - 14.42 = 0.28
2. The absolute value of the current high less the previous
close: 14.70 - 14.11 = 0.59
3. The absolute value of the current low less the previous close:
14.42 - 14.11 = 0.11

So the True Range is 0.59.

Many think the Average True Range (ATR) is just a moving average
of the each day's TR but it is a little more complicated than
that. For a 14-day ATR the first TR value in the series is simply
the high minus the low. Then the first 14-day ATR is found by
averaging the daily ATR values for the last 14 days. After that,
Wilder sought to smooth the data set, by incorporating the
previous period's ATR value. The second and subsequent 14-day ATR
value would be calculated with the following steps:

1. Multiply the previous 14-day ATR by 13.
2. Add the most recent day's ATR value.
3. Divide by 14.

How to use ATR

When a market starts to become more volatile the ATR rises in
value and will tend to peak. On the other hand, in periods of
little volatility the ATR decreases in value and bottoms out.

Wilder has found that high ATR values often occur at market
bottoms following a panic sell-off. Low ATR values are often
found during extended sideways periods, such as those found at
tops and after consolidation periods.

Having a way to measure volatility helps to identify markets with
higher price fluctuations thus offering more trading
opportunities since price has a greater daily range with higher
ATR values.

While chart technicians tend to use Average True Range to measure
market volatility, they use other technical indicators to help
identify market direction and entry and exit points

Because the ATR shows volatility as an absolute level (versus
percentage), lower priced stocks will have lower ATRs than higher
priced stocks. For example, a $5 stock will have a much lower ATR
reading than a $100 stock. Because of this, ATR readings can be
difficult to compare across a range of securities. Even for a single
security, large price movements, such as a decline from 70
to 20, can make long-term ATR comparisons difficult.

Remember plan your trade and trade your plan

Jane Fox


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The Option Investor Newsletter                   Monday 07-26-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved.                        2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.


In Section Two:

Stop Loss Updates: PGR, STJ
New Call: TXT
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Biotech to Internet to Oil


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*****************
STOP-LOSS UPDATES
*****************

PGR - put play -
 We're going to lower our stop loss from
 $80.01 to $78.51, above the simple 10-dma.
 The stock is getting very oversold and we
 could see an oversold bounce from the $75 level.
 Short-term traders may want to consider exiting
 for a profit near the $75 region.

---

STJ - put play -
 STJ's 2.35 percent drop broke through last week's
 low and sent shares testing support near the
 round-number $65 level.  We're going to lower our
 stop from $70.01 to $68.50 near the 200-dma.


********
NEW CALL
********

Textron - TXT - close: 60.72 change: +1.13 stop: 57.49

Company Description:
Textron Inc. is a $10 billion multi-industry company with more
than 43,000 employees in nearly 40 countries. The company
leverages its global network of aircraft, industrial and finance
businesses to provide customers with innovative solutions and
services. Textron is known around the world for its powerful
brands such as Bell Helicopter, Cessna Aircraft, Kautex,
Lycoming, E-Z-GO and Greenlee, among others.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like TXT for its bullish technical picture.  Not only is the
stock showing relative strength and hitting new four-year highs
but the recent rally has been one fueled by very strong volume.
Today's breakout over resistance at $60.00 happened on more than
twice the average volume.  Last week the company reported
earnings that beat estimates by 13 cents and the company raised
its full year guidance for 2004.  Friday Wall Street firm Smith
Barney upgraded their outlook on the stock to a "buy" and raised
their price target to $70.  Today's breakout produced a bullish
ascending triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart that
points to a $76 target.  Short-term technicals are positive and
its MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal.

We're going to suggest longs now about $60.00 and target a move
to $65-66.  Our stop will be $57.49.

Suggested Options:
We like the August and September calls. Our favorites are the
$55s and $60s with the Septembers looking like the better deal.

BUY CALL AUG 55 TXT-HK OI=  0 Current Ask $6.10
BUY CALL AUG 60 TXT-HL OI= 94 Current Ask $1.90
BUY CALL AUG 65 TXT-HM OI= 75 Current Ask $0.25
BUY CALL SEP 55 TXT-IK OI=592 Current Ask $6.50
BUY CALL SEP 60 TXT-IL OI=328 Current Ask $2.65

Annotated Chart:



Picked on July 26th at $60.72
Change since picked:   + 0.00
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    622 thousand
Chart =



*************
DROPPED CALLS
*************

None


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************
DROPPED PUTS
************

None


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Full Service Brokers

Man Financial announces the formation of the OneStopOption
Brokerage Group, addressing the demand for personalized,
experienced service for both securities* and futures trading
within the same firm. Licensed Option Principals Andrew Aronson
and Alan Knuckman specialize in live assistance of stock*,
option* and futures traders. The combination of the proven Man
Financial global presence and the convenience of one group for
all trading needs provide customers with the tools needed for
success.

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**********
Watch List
**********

Biotech to Internet to Oil

___________________________________________________________________

How to use this watch list:
  Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
  own research.  Many are in the process of breaking support or
  resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
  extending old ones.  With your own due diligence these could be
  strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________


ImClone Systems - IMCL - close: 56.42 change: -9.62

WHAT TO WATCH: Ouch!  A downgrade from Smith Barney from "buy" to
a "hold" sent IMCL reeling for a 14.5% drop on massive volume.
The stock did try and rebound from the $55 level but the bounce
was a meager one.  We'd keep an eye on this stock as it is very
oversold from the $80 level just a week ago.  Aggressive traders
might consider a "dead cat bounce" but IMCL could still drift to
its simple 200-dma (at $53) or the $50 level before truly
bouncing.  It might be noteworthy that shares have surpassed
their bearish P&F target at $66.

Chart=


---

Zimmer Holdings - ZMH - close: 73.85 change: -2.17

WHAT TO WATCH: Uh-oh!  ZMH is cracking support.  We alerted
readers in the MarketMonitor today that ZMH was breaking down
through support at the $75.00 level and technical support at its
simple 200-dma.  The stock does have some minor support in the
$71.50 region but the next stop is likely round-number support at
$70.00.  While we're tempted to consider bearish positions the
company is due to announce earnings after the bell on Wednesday.
Its P&F chart is bearish and points to a $62 target.

Chart=


---

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 29.21 change: +0.89

WHAT TO WATCH: ASKJ turned in a nice bounce from its simple 200-
dma and added more than 3% on Monday.  The move was fueled by
news that ASKJ had renewed a revenue sharing agreement with
Internet search giant Google.  Unfortunately for the bulls ASKJ
couldn't breakout over its simple 10-dma or the $30 mark.  We
might consider aggressive bullish positions if it can breakout
over $32 but right now its P&F chart is very bearish and points
to a $22 target.

Chart=


---

Valero Energy - VLO - close: 72.37 change: -1.42

WHAT TO WATCH: Energy stocks took a dive today as the sector
traded lower on a decline in crude oil.  We noticed that VLO
painted a bearish engulfing candlestick with shares moving from
early strength to new monthly lows as it tested support at the
40-dma.  We will be watching to see if VLO can bounce from rising
technical support at the 50-dma near the $70.00 mark.  The
company is due to report earnings on Thursday morning.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

NKE $69.96 -0.31 - Nike has closed under round-number,
psychological support at $70.00 and its simple 200-dma.

JOSB $29.11 -0.41 - JOSB continues to look like a put play
candidate with today's failed rally at the $30.00 region and
its 200-dma.


*******************
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*******************

If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.

The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.

We would like to have you as a subscriber. You mar
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.

To subscribe you mar go to our website at

www.OptionInvestor.com

and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you mar simply send an email to

 "Contact Support"

with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you mar call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.

You mar also fax the information to: 303-797-1333


**********
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**********

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Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

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